USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 30, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0220 on a cautious day, as investors sit on the sidelines.

There is no domestic data, leaving CAD vulnerable to broader trends. The most significant upcoming domestic risk is the June 5th BoC meeting, where Governor Carney is expected to dampen his hawkish tone. Currently the OIS market is pricing in no chance of an interest rate move in the next 9‐months. G7 currency volatility has dropped off its recent highs which are positive for CAD; however with ongoing extreme uncertainty in Europe the bias remains that vol will continue to climb higher putting temporary downward pressure on CAD. Oil prices remain depressed and risk aversion remains the theme, expect the CAD to continue to trade in this range.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 29, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 29

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

5.8%

 

6.3% 

 

10.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

6.9%

 

 

 

-9.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

21

 

-7 

 

-6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CB Consumer Confidence 

64.9

 

70.0 

 

68.7 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

 

May 30

12:30

CAD

RMPI m/m

-1.6%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

 

May 31

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

CAD

Current Account

-10.3B

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

 

Jun 1

12:30

CAD

GDP m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.8

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *