USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 7, 2014 Forecast

usdjpy thursday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 101.55 with the greenback gaining 10 points this morning as risk off and market aversion ease ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payroll release.  A weaker-than-expected ADP jobs report and the ISM report on the services side of the economy compounded fears that the U.S. recovery is still vulnerable. Two private surveys showed an uptick in U.S. growth in January. The Institute for Supply Management said growth picked up in the dominant U.S. service sector in January, with steady strength in private-sector hiring, while Markit’s report on service-sector activity showed growth quickened to a four-month high in January and hiring remained robust.

Investors seeking safe-haven currencies lifted the yen against both the dollar and euro, while U.S. stocks extended their recent slide that investors speculate could be part of a long-awaited correction.

The dollar-yen sector remains “unstable,” an official of a foreign exchange margin trading service firm said, adding that the dollar “is reacting more too negative factors than to positive ones.”

A report yesterday showed that the average monthly wage, including bonuses, came to ¥314,150 in 2013, a record low for the second straight year, the labor ministry said in a preliminary report Wednesday. Overtime pay and bonuses grew on the back of the economic upturn, but low-paid part-timers accounted for a greater share of the overall workforce, preventing the average wage level from rising, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said. Low wages continue to haunt the Abe administration as you cannot generate inflation without wage increases.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data February 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Feb. 06

 

JPY

 

 

Foreign Bonds Buying 

-1815.8B

 

 

 

-357.0B 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.4% 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

0.468B

 

-0.300B 

 

0.083B 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

8.00

 

 

 

5.00 

   

 

 

TWD

 

 

Taiwanese CPI (YoY) 

0.76%

 

0.70% 

 

0.34% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Exports (MoM) 

4%

 

 

 

0% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Imports (MoM) 

2%

 

 

 

-1% 

   

 USDJPY(15 minutes)20140206070015

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Feb. 07

01:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Services PMI 

 

50.9

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

185K

74K

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.4

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

188K

87K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Feb 07 10:03 Sweden

Feb 07 16:30 Italy

Feb 10 10:03 Sweden

Feb 10 10:30 Germany

Feb 10 16:30 Italy

Feb 11 09:10 Holland

Feb 11 10:00 Norway

Feb 11 10:03 Sweden

Feb 11 10:30 Belgium

Feb 11 10:30 UK

Feb 11 18:00 US

 

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