USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis July 1, 2013 Forecast

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis July 1, 2013 Forecast
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis July 1, 2013 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY saw the yen tumble as the greenback gathered momentum. With the overall global recovery underway and no new crisis the JPY is losing support as the pair is trading at 98.85. This morning data showed that consumer prices halted their decline with inflation reporting a turnaround in inflation. Retail sales and industrial production both reported well above expectations supporting Abenomics. Japanese economic data on Friday signaled steady economic growth, but economists believe it may take more time to achieve sustained rises in prices even as the government’s expansionary policies are making some progress towards ending years of entrenched deflation. Japan’s consumer prices stopped falling in May and labor demand reached its strongest level in five years, but the BOJ’s two-year time frame for achieving its 2 percent inflation target still appears overly ambitious

 The dollar scaled a two-and-a-half week peak against the yen in Asia on Friday but lost ground against the euro after two more Federal Reserve officials sought to play down fears over the central bank’s plan to gradually reduce stimulus. Traders said some last minute positioning ahead of the end of the month and quarter helped the euro edge off a four-month trough, although the common currency was still headed for its second week of declines.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 28, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 28

 

NZD

 

 

Building Consents (MoM) 

1.3%

 

-3.9% 

 

21.0% 

   

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.4%

 

0.8% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.9% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo CPI (YoY) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.8%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.2% 

   

usdjpy bns0628

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Jul. 01

00:50

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

3

-8

 

00:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index 

14.0

9.0

 

00:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index 

-6.0

-8.0

 

00:50

JPY

Tankan Small Manufacturing Index 

-13.0

-19.0

 

02:00

CNY

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

 

50.80

 

02:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

48.3

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.1

49.0

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Jul 01 09:10 Norway

Jul 02 00:30 Japan

Jul 02 09:15 Austria

Jul 02 09:30 Belgium

Jul 02 09:30 UK

Jul 02 14:30 UK

Jul 03 15:00 US

Jul 04 00:00 Japan

Jul 04 08:30 Spain

Jul 04 08:50 France

Jul 04 11:00 Norway

Jul 05 15:30 Italy

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