XRP under pressure from SEC v Ripple case.

XRP Price Prediction: Sub-$0.40 in Play Over SEC v Ripple Uncertainty

Key Insights:

  • XRP has failed to make a meaningful recovery since its slide to a May 12 current year low of $0.3344
  • While the broader crypto market struggles, XRP investors also need to grapple with the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.
  • Key technical indicators bearish. XRP sits well below the 50-day EMA.

On Monday, XRP slid by 4.06%. Reversing a 1.79% gain from Sunday, XRP ended the day at $0.4044. While bearish sentiment from the broader crypto market contributed to the slide, a lack of news on the SEC v Ripple case also tested investor resolve.

Government, central bank, and regulatory responses to the collapse of TerraUST (UST) and Terra LUNA continue to leave the crypto market under pressure.

This week, the World Economic Forum also got underway in Davos, which has provided little relief.

XRP Investors Await Court Ruling on Hinman Documents

On May 13, Ripple replied to an SEC brief claiming that William Hinman’s speech-related documents fall under attorney-client privilege.

The SEC then responded to the Ripple reply on May 18 to attempt further to shield Hinman’s speech-related documents.

Following the submission from both sides, it is now in the hands of the courts to decide whether William Hinman’s speech-related documents are protected by the attorney-client privilege.

William Hinman, former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, has become a key area of focus in the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.

In a 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

Since a defense motion in August 2021 to compel the SEC to provide documents and emails about the Speech, the SEC has been committed to shielding the speech-related documents.

The court decision could go either way, leaving XRP under price pressure ahead of any ruling.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.52% to $0.4065.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.4130 before falling to a low of $0.4031.

SEC v Ripple case leaves XRP on the back foot.
XRPUSD 240522 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP will need to move through the $0.4108 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level at $0.4217. XRP would need broader crypto market support to break out from $0.4150.

In the event of an extended rally, XRP should test the Second Major Resistance Level at $0.4391 and resistance at $0.44. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.4674.

Failure to move through the pivot at $0.4108 would bring the First Major Support Level at $0.3934 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off throughout the day, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3950. The Second Major Support Level sits at $0.3825.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave sub-$0.40 in play.
XRPUSD 240522 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bearish signal. At the time of writing, XRP sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.4236. This morning, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA also fell back from the 200-day EMA, XRP negative.

A move through the 50-day EMA would support a return to $0.45. While sentiment from the broader crypto market will influence, a court ruling on the SEC’s claim of attorney-client privilege will remain the key.

An XRP move through the 50-day EMA would support run at $0.45.
XRPUSD 240522 4-Hourly Chart