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Brexit – ‘The Never Ending Story’

The Wednesday Vote

So, Parliament finally managed to vote for something on Wednesday after a week of political wrangling that delivered nothing of value for British voters.

By a whopping majority of 1 vote, MPs voted in favor of legislation to prevent a departure from the EU without a deal come 12th April. It was 313 votes for and 312 votes against.

Ironically it was a labor MP bill that made it through, demonstrating yet again the Tory party’s failings to lead Britain out of the EU in an orderly fashion.

The Pound managed to avoid a sell-off, with the vote supporting a 0.23% rise on the day to $1.3158. The move was far from a euphoric one.

While a no-deal departure looks marginally less likely to occur, the British PM is also holding talks with Labour Party leader Corbyn to deliver a deal that would garner the necessary number of votes ahead of next week’s deadline.

Who would have thought of a Conservative-Labour Party coalition?

Any agreement would be just that. Theresa May managed to avoid a conservative party loss in the last general election, but the coalition with the DUPs has caused more trouble than it was perhaps worth.

What’s next?

The EU’s imposed 10th April deadline is now less than a week away.

Unsurprisingly, German Chancellor Merkel has shown support for an open-ended extension for Britain to come up with a plan to leave the EU in an orderly fashion. Also unsurprisingly, French President Macron has different ideas.

The different views of two main influences within the EU Parliament paint a bleak picture of what’s to come. The EU is due to hold an emergency Summit on 10th April, the deadline date imposed by the EU.

Ahead of the EU Summit, the House of Lords is expected to debate the draft legislation. This could happen tomorrow or on Monday at the latest. It’s not surprising that Theresa May is active behind the scenes to try to avoid a House of Lords and EU backlash.

The number of Eurosceptics has been on the rise. If the House of Lords does miraculously pass the legislation, will the EU want British Government representation in the European Elections?

Probably not. The EU has managed to avert political crisis after political crisis over the past 12-months. The rise of populist governments has tested the Establishment to the full. Throw in Britain’s Eurosceptics and it could get interesting…

Does the EU want Britain to fall out of the EU in a disorderly fashion? Probably not.

That makes the EU Summit and member state vote for a lengthier extension as difficult to call as the votes in Parliament over the last week.

When considering how close the EU Referendum was in terms of percentage for and against breaking away from the EU, perhaps we should have expected this ‘Never Ending Story.’

We could get some good news from the Theresa May – Jeremy Corbyn discussions. If Wednesday was anything to go by, however, this too may prove to be wishful thinking.

The rollercoaster ride is far from over. There may well be more twists and turns before this saga gets put to bed.

The Pound

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by just 0.03% to $1.31567.

GBP/USD 04/04/19 Hourly Chart

A lack of progress from talks between the Tory Party leader and Opposition Party leader would be negative. Any chatter from House of Lords Eurosceptics could also hit the Pound ahead of a yet to be scheduled debate.

And this is all before next Wednesday’s EU Summit. The Summit could, not only undo 2-years of negotiations but sink the Pound into the abyss.