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Economic Data Puts the GBP and EUR in Focus as COVID-19 Cases Continue to Spike

Earlier in the Day:

After a quiet start to the week, it was a busier start to the day on the economic calendar. The Aussie Dollar was in action, with June trade data from China also in focus. Later in the Asian session, finalized industrial production figures are due out of Japan that should have a muted impact on the Yen.

Another record-high number of new COVID-19 cases reported by the WHO on Monday weighed on riskier assets early on.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers

On Monday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 199,164 to 13,235,751. On Sunday, the number of new cases had risen by 194,475. The daily increase was higher than Sunday’s rise and 177,554 new cases from the previous Monday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 2,700 new cases on Monday, which was up from 372 new cases on Sunday. On the previous Monday, 1,876 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 65,488 to 3,479,483 on Monday. On Sunday, the total number of cases had increased by 58,349. On Monday, 6th July, a total of 45,706 new cases had been reported.

For the Aussie Dollar

In June, NAB Business Confidence rose from -20.0 to 1.0, marking a 3rd consecutive sizeable increase in confidence.

According to the June Survey,

  • All three sub-components saw significant improvements, with the employment index jumping by 20 points to lead the way.
  • While employment conditions have improved, conditions remain negative, with layoffs continuing, albeit at a slower pace.
  • Business conditions also improved, with the index rising from -24 to -7, while remaining weak by historical standards.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.69307 to $0.69408 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.01% to $0.69394.

Out of China

Trade figures for June were in focus this morning. The US Dollar trade surplus narrowed from $62.93bn to $46.42bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $58.6bn.

  • Exports rose by 0.5%, following a 3.3% decline in May. Economists had forecast a 1.5% decline.
  • Imports increased by 2.7%, following a 16.7% tumble in May. Economists had forecast a 10% slide.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.69376 to $0.69419 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.09% to ¥107.18 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.12% to $0.6532.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include industrial production figures for the Eurozone and the ZEW economic sentiment numbers for Germany and the Eurozone.

We would expect the ZEW economic sentiment figures to have a greater influence today. Following impressive industrial production figures out of France and Italy, the markets are expecting a solid set of numbers for May.

Outside of the numbers, sentiment towards talks on the EU Recovery Fund, COVID10, and Brexit will remain key drivers.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1340.

For the Pound

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include May manufacturing and industrial production, trade data, and rolling 3-monthly GDP numbers.

Expect manufacturing production and GDP figures to have the greatest impact on the Pound. Away from the economic calendar, Brexit chatter will remain in focus on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.06% to $1.2548.

Across the Pond

It’s a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar, with key stats limited to June inflation figures. We’re not expecting inflation figures to move the dial, however.

Away from the economic calendar, updates on COVID-19, and progress towards vaccines and treatment will remain key.

If that’s not enough to keep the markets busy, earnings could drive demand for the Dollar should today’s earnings disappoint.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.12% to 96.582.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

A lack of stats leaves the Loonie in the hands of OPEC’s monthly report and market risk appetite on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.07% to C$1.3618 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.