Forex chart over the background of the skyscrapers of the International Business Centre in Moscow, Russia.

German GDP and U.S Retail Sales are in Focus as COVID-19 Numbers Continue to Spook

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with economic data limited to Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand.

Updates from China and the rest of the world on COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths also influenced early in the day. Numbers were on the rise as health authorities in the UK scrambled to avert a spread…

For the Kiwi Dollar

The Business PMI increased from 49.3 to 49.6 in January, falling short of a forecast of 51.0.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64398 to $0.64373 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.02% to $0.6436.


At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.02% to ¥109.90 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.07% to $0.6724.

The latest updates from China on the number of COVID-19 cases and related deaths tested the majors early on.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data includes 1st estimate GDP numbers out of Germany and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone.

Finalized January inflation figures are also due out of Spain along with December trade data for the Eurozone.

Barring a downward revision to Eurozone GDP numbers, the focus will be on Germany’s GDP figures.

In spite of some quite disappointing numbers out of Germany of late, economists are expecting Germany to avoid a contraction.

With the spread of COVID-19 and slash in China’s growth forecasts for the 1st quarter, however, any contraction in the 4th quarter will weigh heavily.

Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment will also influence as the global financial markets digest the latest updates from China.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.06 at $1.0835.

For the Pound

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction.

We saw the Pound find support on Thursday following Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid’s resignation. Expectations are for the Government to loosen the purse strings in next month’s budget. The latest cabinet reshuffle points to just that, which was considered Pound positive.

The question now will be just how far the government will go, as plenty of uncertainty lies ahead.

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.3046.

Across the Pond

It’s a busier day ahead on the data front. January retail sales figures, industrial production, and prelim February consumer sentiment figures are due out. Business inventory numbers for December are also due out.

Barring a marked jump in business inventories, however, the figures will likely have a muted impact on the day.

For the Dollar, the retail sales and consumer sentiment figures will be the key drivers.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 99.117.

For the Loonie

It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The Loonie will remain in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices.

We saw crude oil prices get a boost on Thursday, which delivered the Loonie with much-needed support. The markets will need to continue to expect that Russia and OPEC will cut production to deliver price stability.

While it is doom and gloom near-term, expectations are for crude oil demand to rebound in the 2nd quarter, however…

The Loonie was up by 0.04% at C$1.3262 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.