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The UK General Election – Odds, Polls, and Predictions Mid-Week Update

After some positive news from the opinion polls over the weekend, YouGov released its latest opinion poll tracker, covering opinion polls from 25th and 26th November.

According to the YouGov poll tracker,

The Tory Party lead narrowed at the start of the week. While the Conservative Party share of the vote rose from Friday’s 42% to 43% on Tuesday, the Labour Party garnered more support.

In the wake of last week’s debates and Friday Q&A, Labour’s share of the vote rose from a Friday 30% to 32% on Tuesday.

While the moves from Friday through to Tuesday were marginal, of note is a fall in the Tory Party lead since 15th November.

Back on the 15th, the Tories had 45% of the vote and Labour with 28%, which had given the Tories a 17 point lead. This has since narrowed to just 11 points.

Things went from bad to worse for the Liberal Democrats, who saw their share of the vote fall from 16% to 13%.

The UK Election Predictions, and Odds

With the YouGov poll tracker updated, we can expect Electoral Calculus General Election Predictions to reflect a narrower majority.

This morning, Electoral Calculus had predicted that the Tories will win 359 seats to give a majority of 68. The predictions were based on opinion polls from between 19th and 23rd November.

This is down from the previous prediction, where Electoral Calculus predicted the Tories to win 365 seats with an 80 seat majority.

The opposition party was predicted to win 208 seats, rising by 6 seats.

If the polls and the predictions are anything to go by, while Brexit remains a key consideration, trustworthiness and who voters can relate to were also of influence.

From last week’s Q&A and televised debate, viewers and audiences found Corbyn to be both, more trustworthy and more relatable.

Hung Parliament

The latest bookmakers’ odds shifted once more at the start of the week.

According to Oddschecker, the odds for the Tories to win with an overall majority held steady at 4/9. The odds had stood at ‘1/2’ going into the weekend of 23rd November.

For the Tories, the odds of winning the most seats also held steady at 1/16. The odds had moved back from 1/14 to 1/16 ahead of the weekend of 23rd November.

For the opposition party, the odds of winning the most seats also held steady at 12/1. The odds of an overall Labour majority narrowed from 30/1 to 25/1, however, after improving from 33/1 to 30/1.

The latest opinion polls and Electoral Calculus figures suggest that the chances of a hung parliament have risen.

Increased support for the Labour Party saw the odds of a hung parliament come in at just 2/1.

Over the weekend, Oddschecker had the odds of a hung parliament stand at 11/5. Ahead of the weekend, the odds had stood at 15/8 and at 9/4 a week ago.

UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.

The Pound

For the Pound, increased support for Corbyn and the Labour Party continued to weigh on the Pound.

The Pound had fallen by 0.49% in the week ending 22nd November. At the start of the week, the weekend polls had supported a move back through to $1.29 levels.

The latest polls, however, led to a slide back in the Pound on Tuesday, with more losses coming through the early part of this morning.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.18% to $1.28426.

The televised debates scheduled on Sky News and BBC on Thursday and Friday will now be in focus. There could also be more downside once the Electoral Calculus prediction updates are made available.

With Corbyn having found support from previous debates and Q&A, apprehension ahead of this week’s debates could limit any upside in the Pound.

Expect plenty of Pound sensitivity in the 2nd half of the week. With the Tory lead sitting at just 11 points…

GBP/USD 27/11/19 Daily Chart