The week ahead will continue the exciting economic and political events that have occurred in previous weeks. After OPEC cut deal and positive nonfarm payrolls data on Friday that supports a rate hike in December, we enter the last month of 2016 with the Italian referendum results on Monday, interest rates decisions and ECB Meeting on Thursday.
Here are the main events for the upcoming week:
- Italian Referendum Results will be published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. All latest surveys suggest ‘No’ camp victory. 51 million Italians are eligible to vote whether they wish to stay part of EU. A ‘Yes’ camp win can put in danger the Italian bank system and can cause a deeper economic recession.
- UK Services PMI will be released at 9:30 GMT. Data is expected to improve slightly to 54.7 from 54.4 a month earlier.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be release at 15:00 GMT and expected to rise to 55.6 from 54.8.
- RBA Interest Rate Decision & Statement will be published at 3:30 GMT. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 1.5%. Markets will be closely watching for any clues regarding Reserve Bank of Australia next policy actions.
- Eurozone Q3 GDP will be published at 10:00 GMT. Both quarterly and yearly data are expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% and 1.6% respectively. Any data revolves around the European Union is sensitive as the European Union suffers of low economic growth and political instability after Brexit results and Italian referendum surveys.
- Canada Trade Balance & Ivey PMI – Canadian trade balance will be released at 13:30 GMT and expected to narrow to C$4.08 billion from C$4.3 billion. The Canada Ivey PMI for November is forecast to fall to 55.18 from 59.7.
- Australia Q3 GDP will be published at 00:30 GMT. Growth is expected to fall to 0.3% in Q3 compare to 0.5% in Q2 while YoY Australian GDP is also expected to fall to 2.5% from 3.3%.
- India Interest Rate Decision will be published at 5:30 GMT. A rate cut to 6.00% from 6.25% is expected. Indian monetary policy remains accommodative as the decision will help stimulate inflation rate back to central bank’s four percent target in the medium-term while supporting economic growth.
- Canada Interest Rate Decision will be published at 15:00 GMT. Forecast are vague as some analysts predict a rate cut of 0.25% from 0.5% while others predict Canada Central Bank to hold rates unchanged. Canadian Markets will be interesting to watch during interest rate announcement.
- Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 15:30 GMT. After OPEC cut deal last week, oil prices surge 12% in three days. Any decrease in supply can stimulate oil prices rally to continue. Stockpiles expected to rise by 500,000 barrels from a fall of 884,000 a week earlier.
- Japan Q3 GDP will be released at 23:30 GMT. Q3 growth is expected to rise dslightly to 0.6% from 0.5%. YoY growth is also expected to rise to 2.4% from 2.2%.
- China Trade Balance will be published at 02:00 GMT. Any weak data can spark concerns about global growth.
- ECB Policy Decision will take place at 12:45 GMT. Interest Rate are expected to remain unchanged, however Draghi’s speech will be in focus as markets are looking for signals to European Economic boost.
- China CPI for November will be released at 1:30 GMT. MoM is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.1% while YoY is expected to remain unchanged at 2.1%.
- German Trade Balance will be published at 07:00 GMT. Data is expected to rise slightly to 21.5 billion from 21.3 billion.
- UK Trade Balance will be published at 9:30 GMT and expected to drop to £3.4 billion from £5.2 billion a year earlier.