EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Pulls Back Finally

The Euro has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but found the 1.18 level to be a bit too much, and then pulled back towards the 1.17 level. This is an area that will probably cause some support, but quite frankly it still a bit elevated. I think at this point we need to see the Euro consolidate a bit if nothing else.

EUR/USD Video 04.08.20

That being said, I do not like the idea of shorting this pair regardless. Even if we break down below the 1.17 level, it is very likely that we will find plenty of buyers underneath. In fact, I think there is a lot of support all the way down to the 1.15 level, so I am hoping to see a little bit more of a deeper correction and then take advantage of it.

To the upside I believe that we are going to go looking towards the 1.20 level eventually, but quite frankly I do not think that we get there overnight. This is a market that has been overbought for some time, so I think the healthiest thing we can do is either consolidate or pull back. After all, markets cannot go in one direction forever, despite the fact that they often tried to. I believe that the 1.15 level is now the “floor” in the market, and therefore I have no interest in shorting until we get well below that important figure.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Pulls Back

The Australian dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we have breached the 0.71 level to the downside heading into the New York session. That being said, there is significant support just below and I think that will continue to be the case. With that in mind I am looking to take advantage of any type of supportive action here as we have decidedly changed the overall attitude of the Aussie dollar over the last several months.

AUD/USD Video 04.08.20

Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns about the coronavirus out their still, but it seems like the FX markets are more or less worried about the Federal Reserve and its loose monetary policy above all else. That has benefited the Aussie dollar over the last couple of weeks, and should continue to do so, despite the fact that Melbourne Australia is currently under a bit of a lockdown due to the virus outbreak.

Federal Reserve liquidity is a main driver of markets around the world, and FX markets are not going to be any different. Quite frankly you need to buy other things to protect your wealth that based in US dollars, so the Australian dollar is probably as good as any other asset that you can think of. This could also be a bit of a play on the Chinese economy getting a bit better, but at this point I think that is just the sideshow and not the main attraction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Ripe for Correction During Dollar Short Squeeze

Gold futures are taking a breather on Monday from its tremendous rally to record highs in July. The catalyst behind the weakness is a stronger U.S Dollar that is weighing on foreign demand for the dollar-denominated precious metal. A sharp rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is also weighing on gold prices after the benchmark hit a record low yield late last week.

At 13:03 GMT, December Comex gold futures are trading $1984.70, down $1.20 or -0.06%.

Dollar Jumps after Weakest Month in a Decade

The dollar is trading higher against a basket of major currencies on Monday as a squeezing-out of crowded short positions combined with safe-haven demand gave the U.S. currency some respite after its weakest monthly performance in ten years. The greenback lost more than 4% in July, its biggest monthly drop since September 2010.

Dollar Short-Squeeze

Speculators’ net shorts on the U.S. Dollar have soared to their highest since August 2011 at $24.27 billion, Reuters calculations and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday.

A partial squeezing out of that crowded short position may be the reason for the dollar’s rally and gold’s subsequent reversal to the downside earlier today.

Essentially, the dollar ran out of sellers. Traders could sense it because the downside movement was a bit cautious late last week. It seemed that nearly every short in the Forex market decided to cover at the same time on Friday, creating a tremendous reversal to the upside.

Treasury Yields Bounce Slightly from Last Week’s Record-Setting Drop

Probably exerting the most pressure on gold is a rise in U.S. Treasury yields after last week’s decline pushed some of the front-end rates to record lows.

Yields were pressed lower last week on the hopes of fresh fiscal stimulus from Congress, but members went home for the week-end without reaching deal. Policymakers are likely to have a deal in place this week, but it’s probably being priced into the market already.

Daily Forecast

We’re going to be keeping an eye on the U.S. Dollar, but an even closer watch of Treasury yields. Right now the dollar is going through the early phase of a short-covering rally that could lead to at least a 50% retracement of the recent sell-off. If this were to take place then gold could mirror the move with a 50% retracement of its current rally.

Traders shouldn’t fear a normal 50% to 61.8% correction in gold. In fact, they should embrace it because it would likely lead to a break back into a value area where it would become attractive to long-term investors.

The fundamentals are there for higher prices over the longer-term. However, over the short-run, I can build a case for a near-term correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

FBS Trader Won Best Mobile Trading Platform in Asia Award

It is a great step forward and a high honor to meet all the criteria of the judging panel. They recognized FBS Trader’s convenience of use, innovative approach to mobile trading and excellence of orders processing.

FBS Trader was designed to be both effective and user-friendly. With its simplified interface and intuitive handling, it attracts both new and experienced traders. Promoting a mobile approach to investing, FBS Trader provides users the comfort of staying in control of the trades anywhere and anytime.

Not only FBS Trader is convenient, but also functional. Comprising a variety of instruments, it has something to offer to any taste: currencies, commodities, metals and stocks. Every instrument is provided with charts of two types: line and candlestick, and detailed real-time info to help traders make decisions on the go. For any questions arising, it is possible to contact a 24/7 multilingual support directly in FBS Trader.

Another thing FBS Trader cares for is the security. That is why it possesses a Pin and Touch/Face ID function appreciated by traders who work with the platform.

FBS Trader offers a demo account and a no-deposit $100 bonus account to try out its features. The last one includes onboarding to help navigate through the platform. All this provides traders with a smooth start in FBS Trader without a need for an initial deposit.

Best Mobile Trading Platform Asia 2020 Award is just a start for FBS Trader. With a constant strive for developing and perfecting features, FBS Trader has a promising future.

Bitcoin Shots to A New Yearly Highs in July

Indeed, the flagship cryptocurrency endured a prolonged stagnation period. It traded mostly within a narrow range defined by the $9,000 support and the $9,500 resistance level. But on July 22nd, the bears gave up and could no longer contain Bitcoin from achieving its upside potential. Thus, its price finally broke out of the consolidation phase, indicating that it was the beginning of a new bullish cycle.

As the buying pressure behind Bitcoin rose exponentially, so did its market value. BTC shot up over 20%, smashing through the infamous $10,000 resistance barrier. The high levels of demand were so significant on July 27th that it allowed the pioneer cryptocurrency to rise to a new yearly high of $11,488. This day was the most profitable 24 hours period of the month.

Investors appear to have taken advantage of the bullish price action to realize profits. The spike in selling pressure triggered a 7.9% correction on July 28th, which saw Bitcoin drop to a low of $10,580. As the month came to an end, sidelined investors seem to have re-entered the market, pushing prices back up. BTC was able to close July at $11,343.68, providing a monthly return of 22.86%.

Ethereum Enters Massive Bull Rally

Like Bitcoin, most of Ethereum’s price action took place in the last nine days of July. The smart contracts giant kicked off the month at $225.56 and immediately started making a series of higher highs and higher lows. This price behavior, accompanied by the boom in the DeFi sector and speculation over ETH 2.0, saw many investors grow optimistic about Ether.

Despite the positivism around this altcoin, the $245 resistance level was able to absorb any upward pressure impeding it from advancing further. On July 8th, for instance, Ethereum rose to this hurdle, but it was quickly rejected. The rejection was followed by a 7% correction pushing Ether down to $229.84.

It was not until July 22nd that Ethereum finally turned the $245 resistance wall into support. Moving past this major barrier was the catalyst that triggered FOMO (fear of missing out) among investors. As buy orders began to pile up, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap entered an impressive bull rally.

Ethereum skyrocketed by 42.46% to reach a new yearly high of $349.83 on July 31st. Only a few hours before the monthly close, Ether’s price dropped by 0.97%. As a result, ETH was able to end July at $346.42 and provide investors a monthly return of 53.58%.

Further Gains on the Horizon

The price action seen throughout July sent investors into “extreme greed.” Historical data reveals that when greed reigns the crypto market, exhaustion points are reached, followed by steep corrections. Although everything seems to indicate that Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered a new bull market, investors must be aware of the high probability of a retracement.

If this were to happen, market participants would likely take the opportunity to “buy the dip” and grow their long positions. A new influx of capital could propel these cryptocurrencies towards new yearly highs. As the crypto market currently stands, there are more reasons to be bullish than bearish, but it is imperative to use stop-loss orders to avoid adverse conditions.

Konstantin Anissimov, Executive Director at CEX.IO

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for August 3, 2020

The Euro is trading lower on Monday as a squeezing-out of crowded short U.S. Dollar positions combined with safe-haven demand is driving investors into the greenback following its weakest monthly performance in ten years.

In other news, manufacturing activity across the Euro Zone expanded for the first time since early 2019 last month as demand rebounded after more easing of the restrictions imposed to quell the spread of the new coronavirus, a survey showed on Monday.

At 12:40 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1732, down 0.0040 or -0.33%.

Factories appear to be playing their part in the recovery in the Euro Zone. IHS Markit’s final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index bounced to 51.8 in July from June’s 47.4 – its first time above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction since January 2019. An initial “flash” release had it at 51.1.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, Friday’s closing price reversal top and subsequent follow-through to the downside has shifted momentum to the downside. This could trigger a 2 to 3 day correction of between 50% and 61.8% of the last rally.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 1.1371 will change the minor trend to down and confirm the shift in momentum.

The minor range is 1.1371 to 1.1909. Its retracement zone at 1.1640 to 1.1577 is the first downside target zone.

The main range is 1.1185 to 1.1909. Its retracement zone at 1.1547 to 1.1462 is the primary downside target zone.

Combining the two retracement zones creates a price cluster at 1.1577 to 1.1547. This zone also represents value so it should be attractive to buyers if tested.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The closing price reversal top is not a change in trend, but often used as a means to alleviate some of the excessive upside pressure.

Our work suggests a 2 to 3 correction is likely with 1.1640 to 1.1577 the first downside target zone. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to show up on a test of this level.

The EUR/USD should hit 1.1640 to 1.1577 if the downside momentum continues. If the downside momentum pauses or shifts back up then look for a retracement of the first leg down. This price is approximately 1.1812.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Stocks Set To Open Higher As Traders Push Equities To Multi-Month Highs

Euro Area Manufacturing Gets Back To Expansion Mode

S&P 500 futures are up in premarket trading in sympathy with European bourses which are gaining ground after the release of Euro Area Manufacturing PMI report.

The report showed that Euro Area Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.4 in June to 51.8 in July. Numbers above 50 show expansion. The return to growth is an encouraging development which may provide additional support to riskier assets.

Today, the U.S. will also release its Manufacturing PMI data. Analysts expect that U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 in June to 51.3 in July. A better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI report can provide more support to U.S. stocks and push them higher.

Republicans And Democrats Fail To Reach Consensus On New Coronavirus Aid Package

Republicans and Democrats continued their negotiations over the weekend but did not manage to reach consensus on the coronavirus aid deal.

Democrats want to preserve special unemployment benefits of $600 per week while Republicans are worried about costs and want to cut benefits to $200 per week.

As usual, there are other negotiating points, but the unemployment benefit topic remains the key source of discord.

Few analysts doubt that the U.S. needs to provide additional support to consumers to keep spending at healthy levels. The U.S. economy is dependent on consumer activity so a decline in spending could significantly hurt the recovery.

Microsoft May Buy TikTok’s U.S. operations

According to a recent Reuters report, U.S. President Donald Trump gave Microsoft 45 days to negotiate a deal to buy TikTok’s U.S. operations. Microsoft has already discussed the potential deal with Trump.

The U.S. has accused Chinese software companies of sharing data of U.S. citizens with the Chinese government, and TikTok is the first company in Washington’s crosshairs.

More Chinese companies will soon feel the same pressure as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised that Donald Trump would announce new measures to safeguard U.S. citizens’ data in the upcoming days.

China stated that it opposed actions against its software companies, and retaliation in some form is almost guaranteed.

For now, the U.S. stock market completely ignores another increase in U.S. – China tensions as it is focused on upbeat Manufacturing PMI data from Europe and expectations of good Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Fixed Between $43-44

A new stage of the OPEC+ agreement is coming into effect. Starting from August 1st, the daily reduction of oil production is 7.7 million barrels, which is lower than the previous value, 9.7 barrels. This restriction is supposed to be valid for countries members of OPEC+ until the end of the year.

Market players are worried by the possibility of oversupply. It may well be that a stable price for oil might sooner or later boost the USA to increase oil extraction. This is exactly what is putting pressure on the oil right now.

Another thing that pushes the oil price is the coronavirus: the number of new cases is going up, which means that all pandemic-related risks are not going away anywhere.

In the H4 chart, Brent is still correcting towards 42.80. After reaching this level, the asset may form one more ascending wave to break 44.04 and then continue trading upwards with the short-term target at 45.33. Later, the market may correct towards 44.50 and then start another growth to reach 46.46. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 in the histogram area. After the line leaves the area and breaks 0 to the upside, the correction may be over.

Изображение выглядит как карта, текст Автоматически созданное описание

As we can see in the H1 chart, Brent is consolidating around 43.30; it has already broken this level to the downside and may continue falling to reach the correctional target at 42.80. After that, the instrument may start a new growth to break 43.30 and then continue trading upwards to reach 44.04. And that’s just a half of another ascending wave.

From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving to rebound from 50 to the downside. Later, the line is expected to fall to reach 20 and rebound from it. After that, the correction may be over. If later the line breaks 50, the price chart may boost its growth.

Изображение выглядит как текст, карта Автоматически созданное описание

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Clorox Sales Up 22% in June Quarter Amid COVID-19 Panic-Buying; Target Price $256

Clorox, a $9 billion market cap consumer products company, reported that its sales surged 22% in the June quarter, including double-digit growth across all reportable segments as people spent more time cleaning and disinfecting their homes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, sending its shares up over 1% pre-market trading.

Clorox said it delivered earnings of $310 million, or $2.41 diluted EPS in the fourth quarter, which ended June 30, 2020, compared to $241 million, or $1.88 diluted EPS, the same quarter a year earlier, representing a 28% increase in diluted earnings per share. The company’s fourth-quarter gross margin increased 170 basis points to 46.8% from 45.1% in the year-ago quarter.

The board of directors of the Clorox Company also announced that, effective Sept. 14, 2020, Linda Rendle will be promoted to chief executive officer and elected to the company’s board of directors. Benno Dorer will continue serving as the board’s executive chair.

Clorox shares closed 2.27% higher at $236.51 on Friday, increased more than 50% since the beginning of 2020.

Clorox stock forecast

Nine analysts forecast the average price in 12 months at $202.89 with a high forecast of $256.00 and a low forecast of $164.00. The average price target represents a -14.22% decrease from the last price of $236.51. From those nine, three analysts rated ‘Buy’, four analysts rated ‘Hold’ and three rated ‘Sell’, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley target price is $193 with a high of $259 under a bull scenario and $145 under the worst-case scenario. Deutsche Bank raised its target price to $223 from $174. Several other equity analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Clorox had its price target raised by investment analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. to $235 from $203. BofA Global Research raised price objective to $235 from $215.

We think it is good to buy at the current level with a target of $256 as 100-day Moving Average and 100-200-day MACD Oscillator signal a mild buying opportunity.

Analyst comment

“Structural Long-term Topline Challenges Relative to HPC Peers: While CLX’s near-term topline is likely to be robustly supported by a COVID-related demand boost for cleaning products (we project +17.5% for 2H20e, driven by the 25% of CLX’s business related to cleaning), we believe that longer-term, Clorox remains over-indexed to low-growth product categories, with high exposure to the US,” said Dara Mohsenian, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Valuation Too High: We view CLX valuation of 20.5x CY21e EV/EBITDA and 30x CY21e P/E as too high (in comparison to PG at 23x CY21e P/E) considering limited LT EPS growth and strategic potential relative to peers post a beneficial COVID impact,” he added.

Upside and Downside Risks

Topline and margin upside from improved pricing, longer-lasting COVID-related demand impact, better than expected volume, declining commodity costs, successful innovation driving recaptured shelf space, consolidation potential, and cost-cutting, Morgan Stanley highlighted as upside risks to Clorox.

Pricing doesn’t take hold, worsening volumes, higher than expected commodity inflation, heightened competition from private label, Morgan Stanley highlighted as downside risks.

Daily Gold News: Monday, August 3 – Gold’s Consolidation – a Topping Pattern?

The gold futures contract reached another new record high on Friday at the price level of $2,005.40. The market has slightly extended its recent advance again. The market gained 0.97%, but the closing price was at around $20 below the daily high. Gold reached the highest in history following U.S. dollar sell-off, among other factors.

Gold is 0.4% lower this morning as it is slightly retracing Friday’s advance. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 3.66% on Friday and today it is 1.3% lower. Platinum gained 0.69% and today it is 0.3% higher. Palladium gained 0.49% on Friday and today it’s 1.2% higher. So precious metals trade within a short-term downward correction this morning. The gold price remains within a week-long consolidation along $1,950-2,000.

Friday’s Personal Income/ Personal Spending data release along with the sentiment numbers have been mixed. Today we will get the ISM Manufacturing PMI number at 10:00, among others. Expectations are at 53.6 – one point above the previous month’s release. The ISM Manufacturing PMI got back above the neutral level of 50 following steep declines in May and June.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Monday, August 3

  • 9:45 a.m. U.S. – Final Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices
  • All Day, Canada – Bank Holiday

Tuesday, August 4

  • 00:30 a.m. Australia – Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • 9:45 p.m. China – Caixin Services PMI

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

GBP/USD Eases Back After a Strong Performance in July

The British pound was the best performer among the seven major currencies in July, gaining 5.5% against the greenback.

The dollar was under pressure throughout the month, weighed by optimism that central banks and governments would continue to support the global economy. The greenback is known as a safe-haven currency and often underperforms when the market’s appetite for risk is higher than usual.

In the UK, the economy took a firm step in a positive direction as lockdown restrictions were eased in July and businesses started to reopen.

The latest PMI report, released earlier today, showed the manufacturing sector growing for a second consecutive month. Data on Friday revealed a strong rebound in the services sector and a sharp push higher in UK house prices.

On the other hand, ongoing talks in reaching a trade deal with Europe have not been going so well. Last month, several media outlets reported that the UK government expects an agreement won’t be reached by the deadline. Further, the UK waived its right in June to extend the transition and negotiating period beyond December.

Later in the North American session, the US will release its latest PMI figures for the manufacturing sector.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD Monthly Chart

GBP/USD trades about half a percent lower ahead of the North American open on Monday. The pair reached a high of 1.3170 last week, stopping short of testing major resistance at 1.3262 seen on a monthly chart.

Considering the recent upward momentum, buyers are likely to support the pair on near-term dips. But at the same time, the risk to reward does not appear all that favorable for buyers with a longer-term view since resistance at 1.3262 has held the pair lower for more than two years.

Friday’s daily candle suggests some exhaustion that could cap near-term rallies. Today’s daily close will be important. A close near Thursday’s open, around 1.3000 would result in the formation of a reversal candlestick pattern on a daily chart.

Bottom Line

  • GBP/USD has pushed slightly lower after an impressive gain in July.
  • The decline on Friday ended a 10 consecutive day bullish streak.
  • The pair is weighed by a dollar recovery as the greenback is seen advancing against its major counterparts after hitting a two-year low on Friday.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Asian Shares Mixed; Nikkei Jumps Over 2 Percent after Yen Plunge, Shanghai Boosted by Manufacturing PMI

The major Asia-Pacific stock indexes finished mixed on Monday but mostly lower with both the Nikkei and Shanghai indexes posting more than 1.50% gains while the others sputtered. Japanese shares snapped six consecutive sessions of losses on Monday after the Yen retreated from a 4-1/2-month high against the dollar. Chinese stock jumped as key manufacturing data came in above expectations.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index settled at 22195.38, up 485.38 or +2.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24458.13, down 137.22 or -0.56% and South Korea’s KOSPI Index finished at 2251.04, up 1.67 or -0.07%.

China’s Shanghai Index settled at 3367.97, up 57.96 or +1.75% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index closed at 5926.10, down 1.70 or -0.03%.

China’s Factory Activity Expanded

Sentiment was helped by a survey showing China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in nearly a decade in July, with the Caixin/Markit PMI at 52.8, above expectations for a reading of 51.3 by economists in a Reuters poll. PMI readings above 50 signify expansion, while those that fall below that figure indicate contraction.

US-China Tensions Remain at Forefront

Tensions between Washington and Beijing likely continued being watched by investors, with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saying Sunday that U.S. President Donald Trump is set to announce “in the coming days” new actions related to Chinese software companies viewed by his administration as a national security threat.

On Friday, Trump told reporters he will act soon to ban Chinese-owned video app TikTok from the U.S., according to NBC News. Microsoft on Sunday confirmed it has held talks to buy TikTok in the U.S. from Chinese tech firm ByteDance.

Nikkei Rebounds on Wall Street Gains, Yen’s Retreat

Japanese shares ended six straight sessions of losses on Monday after the Japanese Yen retreated from a 4-1/2-month high against the dollar in a short squeeze. Exporters got a boost as the Yen fell to a low of 106.40 Yen against the dollar, moving away from a high of 104.195 yen touched on Friday.

Hang Seng Dragged Down by HSBC First-Half Profits Miss

HSBC reported a 65% fall in pre-tax profits for the first half of 2020 to $4.3 billion – missing analysts’ expectations.

Chief Executive Noel Quinn said the bank was “impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, falling interest rates, increased geopolitical risk and heightened levels of market volatility.”

HSBC shares in Hong Kong tumbled by more than 3% when trading resumed after a lunch break.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Dollar Rebound Holds Euro Below 1.1800

EUR/USD briefly traded above 1.1900 on Friday but has since eased back as the dollar is rebounding broadly against its major currency counterparts.

Considering that the exchange rate has risen at a much more rapid pace than the norm, it would not be unusual to see a consolidation at this point, or a slight correction lower.

Economic data from Europe was positive today. The latest manufacturing PMI report showed the industry returning to growth after a steep contraction in the second quarter.

The report confirms that the euro area is well on its way to a recovery as the easing of lockdown restrictions has boosted the economy compared to prior months. However, things are still in the early stages and this momentum will need to continue for the economy to eventually get back to the state it was before the virus shock.

The labor market is the biggest risk when it comes to factors that could derail the recovery. For this reason, the next employment report, scheduled for release next week, will be closely watched.

Later today, the US will release data that will provide an outlook on the US manufacturing sector. Similar to the euro area, analysts expect the manufacturing sector to show growth in July.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD 4-Hour Chart

The currency pair shows signs of slowing but there is risk in taking a counter-trend stance, especially in the case of EUR/USD where the recent upward trend has had a lot of momentum behind it.

It might take a further development in price action to determine if the dollar bounce will turn in anything meaningful.

For the session ahead, the 1.1735 level appears to be significant. The price point stems from a weekly chart where it has acted as both support and resistance in the past.

A sustained move below it could clear the path for a broader correction. Considering the trend, buyers may look to defend the level. It may take a move above 1.1850 for the upward momentum to return.

Bottom Line

  • Economic data from the euro area was positive although the exchange struggled to gain following the report.
  • The level to watch in the session ahead is 1.1735. It can act as a line in the sand for a directional bias for today’s session.
  • The US will release it’s latest manufacturing PMI data in early North American trading.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Weekly Bullish Breakout Signals Target at 155

The GBP/JPY is breaking above the key resistance trend line (dotted purple). This occurred after a double bottom around the 125 support. Can the GJ now test the previous top?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

The GBP/JPY seems ready for a bullish wave C (pink) due to the break above the 21 ema zone and resistance trend line. But the long-term MAs remain bearish. A new break is needed before a full upswing can be confirmed. A bullish break, flag, and continuation would confirm that upside (green checks). The main target could be 155 at the previous top.

Price action should remain last week’s candle low and overall support zone (blue lines). A bearish breakout below that support zone invalidates the bullish outlook (red x). A bearish breakout could trigger an unexpected bearish swing (dotted orange arrow). In that case, price could build an inverted head and shoulders pattern.

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Latest Surge in Risk Assets to Be Challenged by Data and US Congress

US futures are steady as investors have lots to digest including important jobs figures, renewed US-China tensions and a key ruling on the new stimulus package from Congress.

In currency markets, the Dollar could not maintain an early morning rally. After marching towards 93.70, the DXY returned to where it started at 93.45. Low interest rates remain the biggest challenge to attracting Dollar inflows, with current 10-year bond yields stuck near 0.5% and real yields sitting around -1% when deducting for inflation. Large twin deficits along with negative real rates is a depressing formula for any currency, even if it is assumed to be a safe haven one. However, given the bearish bet on the USD has risen again to the largest overall since April 2018, we may see some sort of short squeeze going forward leading to some spikes in the US currency.

With the earnings season coming closer to an end, the focus will shift back to data and the decision by Congress on the next Covid-19 stimulus package. Discussions between the Democrats and Republicans are making some progress especially as both are on same page with regards to the direct cash payment of $1,200 to Americans, but unemployment assistance remains a key sticking point and a middle ground doesn’t seem to have been reached yet. Democrats want to keep the federal assistance as the previous package of $600 per week, while the White House is calling for a third of this amount. The longer the disagreement persists, the higher the chances of a market correction.

While most agree that the bottom in economic activity is behind us, the question has now become whether the US recovery is showing signs of cracking and the Non-Farm Payrolls figure due to be released on Friday will probably answer this. After 7.5 million jobs were created over the months of May and June following 22 million job losses in the prior two months, markets expect another 1.65 million jobs to have been added in July. However, expectations vary greatly with some even expecting a contraction given two consecutive weeks of increases in initial jobless claims. The way forward is likely to be bumpy as several US states are re-imposing lockdown measures after spikes in Covid-19 cases. This probably won’t show up in the data until the release of the August figures in September. Investors should also keep their eyes on other US data releases out this week for further evidence on whether the economic recovery is stalling including manufacturing and services activity, motor vehicle sales, factory orders and the weekly initial jobless claims.

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OIL Break Below 38.80 is Possible as the Price is Bearish

Oil has moved lower making a swing below 40, which implies a possible bearish continuation. We could see 38.80.

The POC zone is 40.50-41.00. We might see a move towards the POC zone first before the next rejection. If not then a direct drop might happen from 40.00. A bearish rejection off the zone should be targeting 39.60 and 39.31. A retest of 38.80 is important. Continuation below towards 37.26 at the break of 38.80. Only above 41.00, bears will be in danger.

The Analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.Core and Sit Systems

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Tries To Gain More Ground

GBP/USD Video 03.08.20.

U.S. Democrats And Republicans Fail To Reach Coronavirus Aid Package Deal

GBP/USD trades near 1.3100 as the U.S. dollar is mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies amid continued negotiations about the new U.S. coronavirus aid package.

The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized near 93.5 after rebounding from recent lows at 92.5. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats continued their negotiations during the weekend but failed to reach a deal.

According to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Republicans wanted to extend some federal unemployment benefits while continuing negotiations on the whole package but Democrats wanted a comprehensive deal.

He also added that he was not optimistic that negotiations would successfully conclude in the near term.

Failure to extend special unemployment benefits poses risks for consumer activity which is the main driver of the U.S. economy. On the other hand, excessive money-printing could put additional pressure on the U.S. dollar and its status as the world’s main reserve currency.

Today, traders will have to digest UK Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Manufacturing PMI reports for July.

UK Manufacturing PMI is projected to increase from 50.1 in June to 53.6 in July.

In the U.S., Manufacturing PMI is expected to grow from 49.8 to 51.3. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

Manufacturing was not hit as hard as services during the current crisis so there’s a good chance that today’s data will be optimistic and provide some additional support to riskier assets.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd august 3 2020

GBP/USD tries to stabilize near 1.3100 following the major upside move.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle above 1.3100, it will have a good chance to test the nearest resistance level at 1.3200.

On the support side, the nearest support level is located at 1.3070. GBP/USD has already made an attempt to settle below this level but this attempt was unsuccessful.

If GBP/USD settles below 1.3070, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3020.

Currently, GBP/USD continues to move in a rather tight upside channel, and the upside trend remains intact.

However, RSI is still in the overbought territory, suggesting that risks of correction remain elevated.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Marathon Petroleum to Sell Speedway for $21 billion to 7-Eleven; Target Price $48

Marathon Petroleum, an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company, announced that it has entered into an agreement with 7-Eleven, a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of Seven & i Holdings, to sell its Speedway gas stations in the United States for $21 billion in cash.

The $21 billion valuation represents a significant value unlock. The 100% cash transaction immediately captures value for MPC shareholders relative to potential valuation risks of other alternatives, the company said.

“We estimate a 17% equity valuation uplift from the transaction with proceeds evenly going to buybacks and debt, though that allocation will not be decided until deal close. Rating and price target under review,” said Jason Gabelman, equity analyst at Cowen.

“We expect MPC to target net debt at <1x mid-cycle EBITDA post-sale. We estimate $2.2 billion mid-cycle refining EBITDA plus $2.2 billion distributions from the MLP. This could mean $7.5 billion of sale proceeds go to debt paydown with the remainder to share buybacks, though one could argue the stable distributions from the MLP mean a higher debt multiple. The equity value change until deal close will impact how many shares will ultimately be repurchased and could be a driver of value creation from this sale.”

The deal is expected to result in after-tax cash proceeds of approximately $16.5 billion. Marathon Petroleum expects to use the proceeds to both repay debt to protect its investment-grade credit profile and return capital to shareholders.

The deal is anticipated to close in the first quarter of next year, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. 7-Eleven said the agreement will help bring the total number of stores in the world’s biggest economy and Canada to nearly 14,000.

“We think this is a positive outcome for Marathon Petroleum, with the company receiving a price that’s above expectations (which we peg at ~$17-18 billion pre-tax), crystallizing Speedway value immediately, and bringing in more cash for greater financial flexibility (vs. a spin),” said Benny Wong, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Following this deal, Seven & i shares fell more than 8% to JPY 2937.5 on Monday, the biggest one-day drop since March. Marathon Petroleum shares rose 0.5% to $38.38 in after-hours trading.

Executive comment

“This transaction marks a milestone on the strategic priorities we outlined earlier this year,” Michael J. Hennigan, president and chief executive officer said a press release.

“Our announcement crystalizes the significant value of the Speedway business, creates certainty around value realization and delivers on our commitment to unlock the value of our assets.  At the same time, the establishment of a long-term strategic relationship with 7-Eleven creates opportunities to improve our commercial performance.”

Marathon Petroleum stock forecast

Eleven analysts forecast the average price in 12 months at $47.09 with a high forecast of $61.00 and a low forecast of $38.00. The average price target represents a 23.27% increase from the last price of $38.20. From those 11, nine analysts rated ‘Buy’, two analysts rated ‘Hold’ and none rated ‘Sell’, according to Tipranks.

Marathon Petroleum had its price target trimmed by Scotiabank to $48 from $51 The firm currently has a sector outperform rating on the oil and gas company’s stock. Mizuho lowered its price target to $52 from $54. Jefferies cuts target price to $48 from $50.

Several other equity analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Jefferies Financial Group increased their target price on shares of Marathon Petroleum to $48.00 from $50.00. Morgan Stanley target price is $48 with a high of $60 under a bull scenario and $28 under the worst-case scenario. We think it is good to hold for now as 100-day Moving Average signals a mild selling opportunity.

Analyst comment

“Marathon Petroleum offers multiple ways to win. We expect MPC to benefit from the overall decline in crude prices, although we caution refined product demand risk could weigh on valuation. That said, the stock offers idiosyncratic upside as the company is undergoing a strategic review to unlock discounted value, which includes spinning out Speedway,” Morgan Stanley’s Wong said.

“We see a SoTP upside to ~$50/shr. Our SoTP is as follows: we assign $24/shr to retail, $21/shr to midstream, and $24/shr to refining. Adjusted for assets/liabilities, net debt, and synergies, our SoTP suggests a ~$51/shr valuation (>47% upside),” he added.

Upside and Downside Risks

Oil prices stay depressed or decline further; Successful spin-off of Speedway retail fuel business; Potential separation of MPLX and conversion to a C-Corp; Material widening of sweet-sour differentials, Morgan Stanley highlighted as upside risks to Marathon Petroleum.

Demand risk and Sweet-sour differentials narrow materially are two major downside risks.

Lukman’s Week Ahead: Market Themes to Watch Out For – Webinar Aug 03

An authority on the markets, Lukman is frequently quoted by leading media across the globe, including the BBC, CNBC, CNN Money and Reuters. Join Lukman for expert insights on the latest market movements, potential trading opportunities and what the week ahead has in store for traders.

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Lukman Otunuga has been a Research Analyst at FXTM since 2015. A keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, Lukman is well versed in fundamental and technical analysis. His in-depth analysis on global currency and commodity markets is often cited by leading international media, including the Associated Press (AP), BBC, CNBC, CNN, Marketwatch, NASDAQ, and The Telegraph. He has also appeared on Africa’s biggest television network, NTA 2. Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance.

Introduction to Stock Trading – Webinar Aug 04

This insightful presentation is designed to introduce FXTM’s new stock trading service, available exclusively on our Stocks account. Participants will discover the fundamentals of stock trading including market averages, pricing factors and different approaches to trading. Ali will also reveal the importance of volume, and both pre and after-market sessions. Don’t miss out on the chance to learn from the comfort of your own home! All the material presented has been approved by the Company’s Key Individual, in accordance to FSCA guidelines.

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Ali Mortazavi is a Market Analyst and Trading Educator at FXTM. He has an academic background in Economics, with over five years of experience in the financial markets. Prior to joining FXTM, Ali gained invaluable career experience as a stock market analyst and macroeconomic analyst in a brokerage company. Since joining the FXTM team at the end of 2019, he has continued to pursue his passion for analysis and trading education. To date, more than 500 of Ali’s analytical interviews and articles have been published by a variety of media outlets.