Best ETFs to Buy Now for July 2022

Everyone was pummeled by inflation and now we have talks of a recession, which usually don’t bode well for markets.

So, how is Big Money reacting? It’s selling more than buying. Let me explain.

Markets and Big Money in the Last Six Months

My research firm, MAPsignals, measures Big Money investor activity. That includes institutions, pension funds, big individual investors, and so on. We follow Big Money because our research shows Big Money moves markets.

We created the Big Money Index (BMI), which is a 25-day moving average of large-scale investor buy and sell activity. Over time it has shown itself to be a leading indicator of where markets may go. The BMI went oversold in May, which is a hugely bullish long-term signal. It’s bounced back a bit since but is trending lower again of late:

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The Big Money selling includes shedding the sector that’s been a lone 2022 bright spot – energy. That’s ushered in more volatility as uncertainty continues to reign over inflation, recession, and geopolitical tensions. Check out the recent dip:

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On a more macro level, Big Money has been selling ETFs heavily over the past six months. Worse, buying has been basically nonexistent since March, meaning there’s no leadership now. Big selling combined with no buying will drive markets downward every time.

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But in times of uncertainty, bargains can be had. This month’s ETF picks have long-term value appreciation in mind. Some of them are experiencing low liquidity right now due to market volatility and a lack of overall leadership. Still, we think these ETFs have great long-term potential: FFTY, IEIH, XLV, FXU, and XLP.

Long-term investors should look for ETFs (and their stocks), with great setups. Remember, ETFs are just baskets of stocks, so we need to look at them in detail. MAPsignals specializes in scoring more than 6,500 stocks daily. If I know which stocks compose the ETFs, I can apply stock scores to the ETFs. Then I can rank them all from strongest to weakest.

Now, let’s get to the best ETFs to buy now for July 2022.

Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) Analysis

This ETF is a weekly, rules-based, computer-generated stock index with a nearly 1.4% current dividend that seeks to identify the current top 50 growth stocks. It’s seen a downtrend for a while, with no Big Money buying. But, as markets rise again (and they almost certainly will at some point), FFTY should benefit because it holds great stocks focused on growth. It’s down 41.4% so far this year and is trading at an attractive price relative to its peak:

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FFTY holds many growth-oriented stocks across different industries. One health care example is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX), which has three-year sales growth of 36.1%, three-year EPS growth of 23.5%, and a 30.8% profit margin. Here is the one-year Big Money action for VRTX:

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iShares Evolved U.S. Innovative Healthcare ETF (IEIH) Analysis

This is another low-liquidity ETF, so expect some volatility. That said, IEIH holds tremendous stocks in U.S. pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms with lots of long-term potential and pays a nearly 1.3% current dividend. It’s been choppy for much of the last year, but overall is down just 4.6% so far in 2022:

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One great stock IEIH holds is AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV). This drugmaker has seen big three-year EPS growth of 44.3% and sports a profit margin of 20.4%. Sales have been strong too, growing 20.6% over three years. The Big Money has been all over ABBV:

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Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) Analysis

Again sticking with the health care sector, XLV holds many great companies across several health care fields, including medicines, insurance, equipment suppliers, and more. This ETF is giant, so there should be no liquidity issues, and pays a more than 1.4% current dividend. XLV has seen Big Money action throughout the past year and is up 0.6% in that time:

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A fantastic stock within XLV is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO), a supplier of scientific equipment and services worldwide. It’s down in 2022, but its fundamentals remain strong. TMO has growing sales (one-year sales growth of 21.7%) and three-year EPS growth of 40.8%. Since 2012, TMO has attracted lots of Big Money. Each blue bar below shows when it was a Top 20 Big Money buy:

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First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX Fund (FXU) Analysis

When investors seek safety, that often means utilities that pay dividends. That makes sense because we all have to pay our utility bills, recession or not. FXU is a medium-liquidity ETF, so it still experiences some choppiness. But it’s up 5.4% over the past year, pays a more than 2.2% current dividend, and looks to have a bright future:

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One rock-solid dividend stock within this ETF is Duke Energy Corporation (DUK), a U.S. energy firm serving southern and midwestern areas of the country. While Big Money has been in and out of it over the past year, DUK has three-year EPS growth of 51.9% and a profit margin of 15.5%. Plus, it jumped 7.2% over a year’s time:

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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) Analysis

With recession fears high, consumer staples stocks are attractive to investors. That’s certainly justified right now. XLP holds several household names consumers buy regularly, is highly liquid, and offers a nearly 2.4% current dividend yield. It’s seen 12 Big Money buy signals in the last year and is up 4.2% in that time:

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A great stock in XLP is Coca-Cola Company (KO), the beverage maker (and Warren Buffett favorite). KO is fundamentally strong – it has one-year sales growth of 17.2% and a profit margin of 25.2%. It’s up more than 7% so far in 2022 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this one rise more (it’s had 48 Top 20 Big Money buy signals since 1992 and is up 1,148.7% in that time):

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Here’s a Big Money recap:

  • When Big Money buying heats up, stocks and ETFs tend to rise
  • Deep selling on great quality can be a phenomenal opportunity
  • Repeated buying usually means outsized gains

Bottom Line and Explanatory Video

FFTY, IEIH, XLV, FXU, and XLP are my top ETFs for July 2022. They hover around health care a lot, but also cover other sectors that could rise over time. These picks can climb higher, in my opinion, largely because they each hold great stocks. With markets rocky, bargains can be had, and these ETFs show great long-term potential right now.

To learn more about MAPsignals’ Big Money process please visit: www.mapsignals.com

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in FFTY, IEIH, XLV, FXU, XLP, VRTX, TMO, DUK, or KO at the time of publication, but holds long positions in ABBV in managed accounts.

Contact:

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Best Dividend Stocks to Buy Now for May 2022

See, dividend payers are typically big, stable companies with rock-solid balance sheets. They not only can rise in value, but also provide stable cash flows. They’re holding their own right now, helping buoy markets overall. Let me show you what I mean.

Markets and Big Money in the Last Six Months

My research firm, MAPsignals, measures Big Money investor activity. That includes institutions, pension funds, big individual investors, and so on. Our research shows Big Money moves markets.

In fact, we created the Big Money Index (BMI), which is a 25-day moving average of Big Money buy and sell activity. It tends to be a leading indicator of market movement. Here is the BMI over the last six months laid over SPY:

The BMI is trending up lately because there are sections of strength within the market. Today, I want to focus on four of them – energy, staples, real estate, and health care. Unsurprisingly, they also happen to be big dividend-paying sectors.

Energy stocks have been on fire due to the geopolitical situation right now. Investors have often leaned on them in uncertain times because they pay dividends.

Staples too have been seeing inflows. Recession fears are setting in and investors want the certainty of companies selling what people need.

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The real estate sector saw three HUGE buying days recently as people rush to holding tangible assets with strong cash flows.

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Lastly, health care companies pay big, growing dividends, which is music to investors’ ears right now. Historically, it’s been a defensive area for investors, and it’s performing well now.

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Not only do these sectors pay dividends, but the cream-of-the-crop dividend payers in these sectors increase their dividends regularly. That means investors get a raise, which is always welcome. So, those four strong sectors are featured in the top five dividend-paying stocks we like: XOM (energy), MO (staples), EXR (real estate), JNJ (health care), and ABBV (health care).

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Analysis

Up first is Exxon Mobil, which is an oil and gas producing giant that has consistently paid a big dividend (currently it’s at 4.0%).

Even though great stocks can be volatile, like Exxon Mobil the last few years, these companies are worthy of attention. Check out XOM:

  • 1-month performance (11.8%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Just to show you what our Big Money signals look like, have a look at the buy signals XOM has made the last year in the chart below. Green bars show it was likely being bought by a Big Money player according to MAPsignals.

When you see a lot of them, as XOM has this year, I call it the stairway to heaven:

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

But, what about fundamentals? As you can see, XOM’s sales are strong, and its debt is manageable:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+57.4%)
  • Debt/equity ratio (+31.5%)

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Analysis

Next up is Altria Group, which is a tobacco company that has paid dividends for decades. Its current dividend yield is 6.5%.

Check out these technicals for MO:

  • 1-month performance (+7.1%)
  • Recent Big Money signals

Let’s look long-term. These are the top buy signals for Altria Group since 1990. The Big Money has bought time and again:

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

Let’s dive deeper. As you can see, Altria Group has been a stabile giant:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+1.3%)
  • 3-year sales growth rate (+2.5%)
  • Profit margin (+11.7%)
  • Forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4x earnings

Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) Analysis

Another dividend-paying name we like is Extra Space Storage, which owns and operates self-storage facilities throughout the U.S. and Puerto Rico. It pays a nearly 2.3% dividend right now.

Strong dividend payers usually have Big Money buying the shares, and EXR has that. It’s also jumped in price recently:

  • 1-month performance (+13.1%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Below are the top Big Money signals EXR has made since 2010. That’s the JUICE!

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

Now let’s look under the hood. Extra Space Storage’s sales growth and profits are impressive. I expect more in the coming years:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+12.0%)
  • Profit margin (+50.5%)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Analysis

Number four on the list is Johnson & Johnson, which is a health care behemoth and one of the biggest companies in the world. It just posted great earnings and raised its dividend by 6% (it currently yields almost 2.5%).

Here are the technicals important to me:

  • Year-to-date performance (+7.0%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Below are the top Big Money signals for JNJ since 2006:

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

Let’s examine a bit more. Johnson & Johnson has been growing nicely and it should continue:

  • 1-year sales growth rate (+13.5%)
  • 2-year vs. 1-year EPS growth estimate (+5.5%)

AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV) Analysis

Our last dividend payer is AbbVie, which is a pharmaceutical company with many different focus areas. It makes a lot of money, which means it can pay big dividends (currently it yields more than 3.6%).

Check out these technicals:

  • Year-to-date performance (+15.0%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

ABBV is a high-quality stock with a high-quality dividend. That’s why it’s made the Top 20 report 14 times since 2012:

Source: www.MAPsignals.com

Now look under the hood. The company has had solid sales and earnings growth:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+20.6%)
  • 3-year EPS growth rate (+44.3%)

Bottom Line and Explanatory Video

 

XOM, MO, EXR, JNJ, & ABBV represent top dividend-paying stocks to buy now for May 2022. Strong fundamentals, big and growing dividends, and historical Big Money buy signals make these stocks worthy of extra attention.

To learn more about MAPsignals’ Big Money process please visit: www.mapsignals.com

Disclosure: the author holds long positions in MO, EXR, & ABBV in personal and managed accounts, and no positions in XOM or JNJ.

Contact:

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

Brace Yourself For Another Wild Month In Stock Markets

For the year, the Dow is down -6%, the S&P 500 is down just over -9%, and the Nasdaq has lost -14.7%. The previous record-holder is January 2009, an ugly moment for the economy, when the stock market fell -8.6%. In addition, the VIX – aka the CBOE Volatility Index – has actually dropped back to around 31 after topping 37 earlier this week, its highest point since November 2020.

Keep in mind, the index isn’t registering anywhere close to levels reached during other periods of “extreme” volatility. For example, the index, which is measured between zero and 100, hit its highest point of almost 83 during the financial crisis in 2008. Its most extreme point during the pandemic was around 66 in March 2020. So, by comparison, this week’s volatility has been rather mild.

Federal Reserve

Some insiders equate the wild swings in stock prices to investors, particularly “big money,” trying to establish a new baseline for stock valuations minus the Fed’s easy money policies that have driven a massive amount of cash into markets since the pandemic began in 2020.

At its height, the Fed was pumping as much as +$120 billion per month into the system via its asset purchase program, ballooning its balance sheet to now nearly $9 trillion.

At the same time, the Fed has held its benchmark rate at near-zero and, before that, hadn’t even attempted to raise rates since 2018, and then only briefly. The last full-cycle of rate hikes was 2015. What’s more, investors haven’t really had to factor for inflation since the early 90s and it hasn’t been this high since the 80s.

Bottom line, whatever the new “normal” ends up looking like, it will be dramatically different from the pre-pandemic investing landscape. I’ve heard several large stock traders saying it seems to be the return of Alpha instead of the race to levered Beta. I hear others on Wall Street referencing it to a bit of league recreational youth baseball team where everybody now gets an award simply for participation, but then kids run into a rude awakening when performance really starts to matter.

It feels like we are there in the stock market; every business that was coming into the market was simply being rewarded with participation points, now people are starting to keep a real scorebook and counting the strikeouts and runs scored.

Economy still roars

The good news is that the U.S. economy continues to roar. Historically, a combination of moderate inflation and moderate interest rates has led to some of the biggest boom times for U.S. Last week, the Commerce Department said Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of +6.9%, stronger than Q3’s +2.3% and well above Wall Street expectations of around +5.7% growth.

Consumer spending climbed at a +3.3% annual pace led by a +4.7% increase in services spending. But the real stand out was private investment which rocketed +32% higher, boosted by a surge in business inventories as companies stocked up to meet higher customer demand. Rising inventories, in fact, contributed nearly +5% to Q4 GDP growth.

On the one hand, the inventory build is positive because it indicates an easing of supply chain dislocations that should in turn help with inflation pressures. On the other hand, many economists note that the big boost from retailer and wholesaler restocking is not likely to be repeated.

Companies will also likely start to unwind at least some of that inventory in the quarters ahead, which could drag overall 2022 GDP, especially if consumer spending also drops off. And investors are more closely tracking consumer behavior as inflation continues to rise.

With consumer spending accounting for about 70% of the U.S. economy, any signs that belts are tightening or moods are getting overly pessimistic will likely set off some alarm bells.

Data to watch

Turning to next week, it will be another busy one for both key economic data as well as earnings. The main economic data highlight will be the January Employment Situation on Friday. Other key data includes ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, and the JOLTS report on Tuesday; ADP’s private payrolls report on Wednesday; Productivity & Costs, Factory Orders, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index on Thursday.

Earnings wise, results are due from NXP Semiconductor and Trane on Monday; Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amgen, Chubb, Electronic Arts, Exxon, General Motors, Gilead Sciences, Match Group, PayPal, Sirius XM, Starbucks, and UPS on Tuesday; AbbVie, Aflac, Allstate, Boston Scientific, CNH, Corteva, D.R. Horton, Ferrari, Humana, Johnson Controls, Meta (Facebook), MetLife, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, Siemens, Thermo Fisher, TMobile, and Waste Management on Wednesday; Activision Blizzard, Amazon, Biogen, Carlyle Group, Check Point, Cigna, Clorox, ConocoPhillips, Deckers Outdoors, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Ford, Hanesbrands, Hershey, Honeywell, Ingredion, Merck, Pinterest, Quest Diagnostics, Royal Dutch Shell, Snap, SnapOn, Wynn Resorts, and Xylem on Thursday; and BristolMyersSquibb, CBOE, Phillips 66, Regeneron, and Sanofi on Friday.

Bottom line, brace for another huge week of extreme volatility.

Big Money Buying Up AbbVie

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And AbbVie has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the shares have been trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares all year.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals ABBV has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In 2021, the stock has attracted 13 Big Money buy signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Outperformance is important for leading stocks.

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, AbbVie has been growing sales at a double-digit rate. Take a look:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+18.4%)
  • 1-year earnings growth rate (+10.5%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, ABBV has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

ABBV has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. And since 2015, it’s made this list 7 times, with its first appearance on 6/20/2017… and gaining 76.17% since. The blue bars below show the times that AbbVie was a top pick since 2015:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the healthcare sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if ABBV makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

The Bottom Line

The AbbVie rally could have further to go. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds long positions in ABBV in personal and managed accounts at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Disclaimer

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

Best Dividend Stocks September 2021

The hallmark way I go about finding the best dividend stocks…the outliers, is by looking for quiet Big Money trading activity. Oftentimes, that can be institutional activity. I’ll go over why following the Big Money is so important in a bit. But, the 5 stocks I see as long-term dividend growth candidates are LOW, MSFT, RMD, EXR, & ABBV.

Over decades, I’ve learned that the true tell on great stocks is that big money consistently finds its way into the best companies out there… especially dividend paying stocks. Some of the biggest returns ever have come from holding stocks for many years and reinvesting dividends.

I want the odds on my side when looking for the highest quality dividend stocks…and I own many of them.

So, let’s get into it.

Up first is Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW), which is a large home improvements retailer. They’ve been raising their dividend for years.

Let’s first start with the technical picture.

When deciding on a strong candidate for long-term dividend growth, I look for stocks leading in price:

  • 1 month performance (+2.6%)
  • Historical Big Money buy signals

Below are the Big Money signals Lowe’s has made since 2015. Blue bars are showing that LOW was seeing big buy activity according to MAPsignals. Typically, the more Big Money signals, the stronger the stock:

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Source: MAPsignals.com

On top of technicals, when deciding on the best dividend stock, you should look under the hood to see if the fundamental picture supports a long-term investment. As you can see, Lowe’s has a strong dividend history:

  • 3-year dividend growth rate (+13.3%)
  • Current dividend per share = .80
  • Forward yield = 1.57%
  • 3-year earnings growth rate (+34.66%)

Next up is Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), which is a leader in software, cloud computing, and gaming. They’ve also been a dividend grower for years.

When deciding on a strong candidate for long-term dividend growth, it’s a good idea to look for many years of dividend increases.

Now let’s look at recent performance:

  • 1-month performance (+5.37%)
  • Historical big money signals

Below are the big money signals that Microsoft has made since 2015. I expect more buy signals in the years to come.

Source: MAPsignals.com

On top of technicals, when deciding on the best dividend stock, you should look under the hood to see if the fundamental picture supports a long-term investment. As you can see, Microsoft has a nice dividend history. Their earnings growth has been stellar as well:

  • 3-year dividend growth rate (+9.9%)
  • Current dividend per share = .56
  • Forward yield = .74%
  • 3-year earnings growth rate (+63.68%)

Next, I’m looking at ResMed, Inc. (RMD), which is a medical device company. They have a solid dividend history.

When deciding on a strong candidate for long-term dividend growth, I look for strong recent performance:

  • 1 month performance (+10.18%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Below are the big money signals that ResMed has made since 2015. It’s been quiet recently:

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Source: MAPsignals.com

On top of technicals, when deciding on the best dividend stock, you should look under the hood to see if the fundamental picture supports a long-term investment. ResMed has been slow to raise their dividend, but they did recently:

  • 3-year dividend growth rate (+4.3%)
  • Current dividend per share = .42
  • Forward yield = .59%
  • 3-year earnings growth rate (+18.68%)

Next, I’m looking at Extra Space Storage, Inc. (EXR), which is a leading storage real estate firm. They recently raised their dividend.

When deciding on a strong candidate for long-term dividend growth, recent outperformance is great:

  • 1 month performance (+3.49%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Below are the Big Money signals that Extra Space Storage has made since 2015.

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Source: MAPsignals.com

On top of technicals, when deciding on the best dividend stock, let’s check up on the fundamentals. As you can see, Extra Space Storage has a solid dividend picture.

  • 3-year dividend growth rate (+13.2%)
  • Current dividend per share = 1.25
  • Forward yield = 2.83%
  • 3-year earnings growth rate (+0%)

Lastly, I’m looking at AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV), which is a leading pharmaceutical drug company. They’ve been growing their dividend for years.

When deciding on a strong candidate for long-term dividend growth, I like to look for recent leaders:

  • 1 month performance (+.99%)
  • Historical Big Money signals

Below are the Big Money signals that ABBV has made since 2015.

Source: MAPsignals.com

The last signal they made was a sell signal, but I don’t put much stock into that since it’s the only one.

On top of technicals, when deciding on the best dividend stock, you gotta see if the fundamental picture supports a long-term investment. AbbVie has been a steady grower:

  • 3-year dividend growth rate (+22.6%)
  • Current dividend per share = 1.30
  • Forward yield = 4.35%
  • 3-year earnings growth rate (+2.25%)

The Bottom Line

LOW, MSFT, RMD, EXR, & ABBV represent solid dividend choices. Given the strong historical dividend growth and Big Money signals, these stocks could be worth an extra look for a dividend investor.

Disclosure: the author holds long positions in MSFT, RMD, EXR, & ABBV in personal and managed accounts but no position in LOW at the time of filming.

To learn more about the MAPsignals process, click here: www.mapsignals.com

Disclaimer