How HIGH Can It Fly? Tilray And Cannabis ETF (MJ) Prepare To Rally 25% More To The Upside

Over the past few weeks, a unique opportunity continues to unfold in the Cannabis & Marijuana sector.  I highlighted this near the end of May 2021 with a research article showing how a multiple upside price wave setup may start to unfold after a recent momentum base/bottom setup across various cannabis/marijuana sector symbols.  The confluence of price patterns across a number of cannabis sector stocks suggests a bigger price trend may be about to setup.  My team and I believe this new momentum base/bottom may prompt a strong upside price trend throughout the end of 2021 and may prompt a continuation of this trend into 2022.

Today, I am revisiting these same charts/symbols to see how far things have progresses since our May 31, 2021 research post.  Let’s get started with the charts.

MJ Still Setup For A +14% Rally To Levels Near $24.50 (Or Higher)

This Weekly MJ chart shows the deep momentum base/bottom near $19.90 with moderate upside support above $20 to $21. Using a Fibonacci 100% Measured Move technique, we can identify upside targets near $22.40 and $24.50. Over the past two weeks, MJ actually reached the $22.40 target with recent highs.  Yet, price closed the week lower, near $21.59.

I am also seeing strong trading volume as this new upside price trend extends higher.  This increased volume is a good indication that the upside price trend is starting to build momentum as traders accumulate shares in anticipation of the bullish price rally phase.

My team and I still believe the upside potential in the Cannabis/Marijuana sector is relatively strong.  We believe the recent momentum base that setup across numerous Cannabis sector stocks is presenting a very clear  opportunity for traders to position trades for the pending multi-wave upside price trends.  After the first Fibonacci 100% Measured Move targets are reached, a brief pause in price should be expected, then another upside price trend should prompt an even higher price advance.  This next move will likely conform for the current rally attempt as another Fibonacci 100% Measured Move to the upside.

Tilray Inching Higher – Still Showing A Potential For A +35% Advance

Very similar to the MJ Weekly chart setup, this Weekly TLRY chart shows a fantastic momentum advance after a moderate price pullback from recent highs.  Although recent highs have touched our first Fibonacci target level, near $21.67, there is still ample opportunity for a move to the second target level near $26.70.

We are seeing strong accumulation in the recent trading volume indicated by the series of GREEN candles – suggesting the upside price trend is starting to build real momentum.  We believe the next move higher will target the $23 to $24 level – which will prompt a close above the first target level and setup TLRY on a stronger advance towards the second target level.

From the current price close, the second target level, near $26.70, represents a solid +35% opportunity for traders to profit from this initial wave higher.

GRYN Makes A Big Move – Still Showing Opportunities For Another +22% Advance

In our first research article about this unique setup in the Cannabis/Marijuana sector, we includes GRYN as a potential candidate for an explosive upside trend.  GRYN is not one of the most heavily traded symbols in this sector, yet we feel it is uniquely positioned because it has US FDA approval for its Hemp-based CBD growing and extraction processes.  This US FDA approval means GRYN can produce and sell into almost any medical, consumer, beverage, consumable or other industry as an FDA Approved supplier.

Recently, we saw a big upside in GRYN, rallying over 32% since we first published our May 31 research article.  The next move higher should target levels above $2.21 and setup a new range for the next Fibonacci 100% Measured Move higher.  If GRYN rallies to a high near $2.50 in this current trend, then the next Measured Move upside targets will be $2.79 to $3.45 if the $1.65 to $1.70 price level holds as support.  These approximate (estimated) upside targets represent another +60% to +98% rally phase for GRYN.

Overall, we believe the Cannabis/Marijuana/Alternative Medicine sector has moved away from the downside price trend that has dominated this sector over the past 2 to 3+ years.  Now, after the Reddit group targeted this sector late in 2020, we are seeing renewed focus by traders into this sector.  Once the momentum moves past moderate accumulation and into breakout trending, we may see another big explosive upside trend in a number of Cannabis sector stocks.

The one thing that could deflate this trend is if we start to see a broad US/Global market price correction. If something like a moderate 11% (or greater) US/Global market downtrend sets up, then we will likely see these Cannabis/Marijuana sector stocks attempt to move lower as well – attempting to reset/retest the recent momentum base levels.  This would present a very interesting opportunity for traders to get into positions as these base levels setup and as the accumulation starts to build again.

Want to know how our BAN strategy is ranking the Cannabis/Marijuana sector (and other sectors) for trading opportunities to identify the best opportunities for future profits? Please take a minute to learn about my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups.  My team and I have built this strategy to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector.  Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.

Have a great Monday!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

ACB Stock, EUR and Crude Oil Forecast

Canada and New Zealand officials also have indicated that their first interest rate hikes could happen in early 2022. Iceland has already hiked rates, while the Bank of England has already slowed its bond buying and aims to end that support altogether later this year.

This more “hawkish” shift is happening across most central bank’s in the West, including the U.S. Federal Reserve with several FOMC members recently indicating their willingness to start “taper” talks. Even as some officials talk about easing supports, they have also been pushing back against the idea that inflation is starting to run out of control, even as consumer demand continues to outstrip the supply of goods and services in several areas of the economy.

But as I was saying last week, this initial spike in demand may not prove to be overly sticky. Perhaps consumers tick a few things off their bucket-lists of places to go and things to see but then might settle back into a new slower-normal.

There is no doubt an ongoing transformation of consumer trends is taking place and it could take a few months for them to find the new baseline. Data yesterday showed Weekly Jobless Claims dipped for a fourth straight week to hit a new pandemic low of 406,000, which is still very high and about double what it was averaging pre-pandemic. All of these things that are still shaking out in the economy explains some of the Fed’s willingness to let inflation run “hot” above its target rate for a while as supply and demand dynamics stabilize, especially with the labor market still weak. So, let’s overview a few markets.

EUR futures

EUR futures found support near 4h MA100. I believe the volatility will come to this market tomorrow after a long weekend. The price is building a new channel up on the 4h chart. With that in mind, we have a trading range of 1.2105 – 1.2290. So, it makes sense to scalp till support or resistance breaks. In general, we are still in a bull trend.

So, if resistance breaks, we can see the wave up to 1.23100 – 1.23500. The most important event this week is NFP on Friday. It can set the trend for the next 2 weeks.

eur futures 31 may 2021

ACB stock forecast

Last year we booked over 200% in ACB trade. This year I was stopped out in a new trade, but bought again later. I am not a big fan of growth stocks like ACB. But a small position makes sense when there is a good setup. Democrats are working hard to push marihuana legalization across the USA. And I believe they will succeed in it.

Also, there are signs of Wyckoff accumulation on the 4h chart. Besides, it closed above MA100 for the first time since the massive sell-off. So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more upside in the coming 3 – 7 weeks. The neutral magnets for stock are 11.30, 13.50, 19, and 23 in extension. Note, replacing stop loss to be is a must for growth stocks.

acb forecast 31 may 2021

Not much has changed in CL setup since my last overview. However, on the 4h chart, we might get a trade this week. It seems like resistance is broken, but this consolidation looks dangerous. So, a swing failure to break above 67.60 should give a pull-back to 4h MA100 and possibly even lower.

However, the daily chart is still bullish and likely pullbacks will be bought again. So, when price finds support, we may see a rally to $69 – 70 a barrel. Conservative traders should stay on the sidelines till the OPEC meeting as there is a risk of oil output increasing.

crude oil forecast 31 may 2021

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cannabis Entrepreneurs, Celebrity Investors Light up as Legalization Blooms

By Paul Lienert and Jane Lanhee Lee

So far, 36 states and the District of Columbia have approved medical use of marijuana, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Of them,15 states and D.C. have approved recreational use of pot.

Cannabis technology startups, including those enabling home delivery of pot, got a big boost during the pandemic as more Americans partook, igniting investor interest in companies that provide everything from cultivation management tools to compliance and e-commerce software for an industry that still operates in a legal gray zone at the federal level.

Cannabis entrepreneurs say they have to move quickly and build their brands before full U.S. legalization levels the playing field – a process that many expect to gather steam this year.

“Why are you going to Weedmaps (for listings of cannabis retailers) if you can go to Yelp? Why do you order through this or that system if you can order through DoorDash or Uber Eats?” asks Steve Allan, chief executive of The Parent Company, which has Jay-Z as chief visionary officer and is looking to consolidate smaller players following its January listing through a special purpose acquisition company.

TPCO has built its own e-commerce technology that can handle everything from business management to retail sales, said Allan.

In one of the biggest venture capital deals in the sector to date, Oregon-based e-commerce platform Dutchie on Tuesday announced it raised $200 million in a funding round that values the company at $1.7 billion.

Dutchie’s investors include former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, NBA star Kevin Durant and DoorDash co-founder Stanley Tang. The company’s online marketplace connects cannabis dispensaries with consumers, who can order home delivery.

Reuters has identified more than 90 private and public cannabis tech companies in North America, with total private investment in the first quarter at the highest level in 18 months, according to data compiled by PitchBook and Crunchbase.

All told, investors have poured more than $2.5 billion into cannabis tech startups since 2018.

Public investors are piling in too. Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, that target the broader cannabis industry raised at least $4.3 billion through early 2021, with $1.7 billion of that still waiting to be deployed, according to cannabis researcher BDSA.

That interest comes as shares of publicly-traded cannabis companies – many of which are listed in Canada because they are barred from U.S. exchanges – have begun to rebound after a brutal sell-off in 2019.

“We’re still in the very early innings” of investing, said Harrison Aaron, an investment analyst with Gotham Green Partners, a New York-based private equity firm with a cannabis-centric portfolio.

U.S. legal cannabis sales for both medicinal and recreational use last year jumped 45%, according to BDSA.

“We don’t necessarily want things to go (fully) legal today because there’s a lot of value in our companies, and we want more time to build,” said Lenore Kopko, managing partner at Gotham Green.

Others believe entry to the cannabis industry may not be quick or easy for many of the big outside players.

“Cannabis legislation, regulations and supply chain flows create complexity that is not built into software made for other industries,” said David Hua, founder and CEO of Meadow, which sells compliance and operating software for cannabis retailers.

CELEBRITIES GALORE

Cannabis startup funding in the sector has been led by a closely knit network of investors that often co-invest with one another. That network includes Liquid 2 Ventures, headed by former NFL quarterback Joe Montana, and Casa Verde Capital, founded by entertainer Snoop Dogg.

Another of those firms, Beverly Hills-based Arcadian Capital, has invested in more than a dozen cannabis tech startups. Boca Raton-based Phyto Partners has funded 10, many of them as a co-investor with Arcadian.

The network occasionally is joined by other high-profile individual investors. DoorDash’s Tang and Twitch co-founder Justin Kan were among those backing Oakland-based Nabis, a cannabis online marketplace for dispensaries that also has a warehouse, delivery service and online financing for retailers.

There is another draw for investors beyond the immediate business opportunity: data on a brand-new industry.

For Arcadian, the torrent of data that is being generated by cannabis tech startups provides “a great mechanism to learn more about the industry,” said Matthew Nordgren, the company’s founder and managing partner.

Industry boosters say technology developed and incubated by the cannabis industry could open new pathways for retail trade in other sectors.

Socrates Rosenfeld, co-founder and CEO of Jane Technologies, the Santa Cruz creator of an e-commerce platform that has been funded by Arcadian and Gotham Green, called it “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a tech company to work in partnership with the operators in this space to build and redefine how tech and analog retail work together.”

(Reporting by Paul Lienert and Jane Lanhee Lee; Editing by Jonathan Weber and Dan Grebler)

Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – All ALTs are HOT

The recent rally in Marijuana and Alternative Pharma/Agriculture stocks has been impressive, to say the least.  One thing we have to remember about this sector is that it rallied to highs in 2018 and 2019, then fell out of favor for many months.  The anticipation of this new sector emerging within the US, and across many areas of the globe, prompted quite a bit of excitement after 2016 when many US states voted to legalize Marijuana. Even before this date, the alternative medicine and consumer product use related to Marijuana has been heavily speculated on by investors/traders.

If we were to consider the out-of-favor phase of this sector over the past 15+ months, after the rally/hype phase which took place in 2017 and early 2018, we’ve seen many cannabis stocks collapse 70% to 85% or more recently.  This downward price trend likely set up a number of incredible opportunities based on expanded marketplace opportunities, enterprise valuations, and longer-term consumer/pharmaceutical use applications for CBD and other chemical extracts.  Additionally, we need to also consider what would happen if a consolidation phase were to take place in this industry – how would cannabis leaders play a role in acquiring smaller, yet important, firms with innovative technology/solutions.

The MJ Alternative Harvest ETF Weekly chart below highlights the incredible decline in the cannabis sector after the August 2018 peak. MJ fell from a high of $45.40 to a low of $9.34 – representing a -86% decline.  Aurora Cannabis (ACB) peaked at 150.34 in October 2018 and recently bottomed near $3.71 – representing a massive -97.5% decline.

Over the past two months or longer, this sector has started to heat up again with a moderately strong rally setting up.  Over the past 14+ days, a big upside rally initiated pushing price levels upward by +80% to +150% or more from recent lows.  Historically, when one considers the longer-term potential for growth, revenues and consolidation within this industry sector, we believe this rally may be just starting.

If we were to consider a potential continued focus on the Cannabis/Alternative Agriculture supply and industry sector over the next 4+ years, we would have to take a look at the deep decline in price levels recently and the opportunity for some type of industry consolidation over the next 5 to 10+ years.  Obviously, this industry/sector is here to stay, and, much like the Alcoholic Beverage industry in the 1960s to early 2000s, we are in a very early stage of the legalization, expansion, and consolidation phase of this sector.

Using these two sectors for comparison, the first question is just how big is the Cannabis/Alt marketplace compared to similar types of markets?  The Cannabis sector currently makes up about 1/10th of the total US Alcoholic beverage annual sales ($25.3B Cannabis: $252.82B Alcohol – https://www.statista.com/topics/1709/alcoholic-beverages/).  From a conservative standpoint, Cannabis consumers very likely cross-over into the Alcoholic beverage consumer market on a fairly high basis.  This means the consumer market for Cannabis is very likely 60% to 75%, or more, of the Alcoholic-beverage market.

The second question should be what additional advantages does the Cannabis/Alt sector have that differentiate it from the Alcoholic-beverage industry?  That answer lies in an unknown factor – the pharmaceutical/consumer product use that is currently in its infancy.  CBD has already shown great promise, but the long-term capabilities, use, and application of various alternative chemical compounds found in various strains of plants, mushrooms, and other organic sources are still part of the “X-Factor”.

The third question in our minds becomes, how long before these unknowns/X-Factor components become a reality?  We can’t attempt to put the answer into dates or predictions, but we do believe the speed at which these organic compounds will be introduced and mapped-out into potential medical-use solutions has been clearly illustrated by the speed at which the COVID-19 vaccines/medical advancements have been delivered.  These solutions only took “months” to come to market.  If the same type of capabilities were applied to the Cannabis/Alternative marketplace, and thus toward the multiple supply/innovation companies within this sector, a massive boost of growth, innovation, and consolidation within this sector over time. Let’s take a look at some current statistics & data below.

Marijuana Tax Revenues by state appear to be strong and growing.  One thing to consider about this Tax data is that a relatively large portion of actual sales are still going unreported (as illicit transactions).

Source: https://loudcloudhealth.com/resources/marijuana-tax-revenue-by-state-map/

Legalization & Acceptance of Marijuana within the US has now reached almost every state – with only six states still showing Marijuana is fully illegal.  All other states have adopted Marijuana use in some form over the past 5+ years.

Source: https://disa.com/map-of-marijuana-legality-by-state

The US Cannabis Consumer Market is expected to increase by more than 15 to 20% in 2021 after more than doubling in 2020.  From 2018 to 2021, the total consumer market was expected to increase by more than 350%.  By the end of 2022, that ratio increases to levels beyond +450% compared to the 2018 levels.

Source: https://mattermark.com/vc-investment-sparks-high-times-american-cannabis-industry/

Obviously, the deep price decline in the Marijuana sector, which recently ended, did not properly reflect the market capabilities and expectations for future growth and earnings.  We believe this sector could become one of the hottest sectors for growth over the next 2+ years and it may prompt a massive consolidation phase within this industry which will create potential behemoth conglomerate Cannabis firms – very much like the Alcoholic Beverage industry.

For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.

In the second part of this article, we’ll explore various Marijuana sector charts showing where traders may find real opportunities for profits if the current rally phase continues.  This exciting industry sector may become one of the hottest sectors for traders and may prompt a massive consolidation phase within this industry over the next 5+ years.  Get ready for some big trends and opportunities.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Revisiting Our October 23 Four Stocks To Own Article – Part I

Just before the US Elections, we authored an article related to four stocks/sectors that we thought would do well immediately after the November 2, 2020 elections.  The article highlighted how sector rotation in almost any market trend can assist traders in finding solid trading triggers.  We picked four stocks from various sectors for this example:

AAL American Airlines Travel/Leisure
ACB Aurora Cannabis Cannabis
GE General Electric Industrial/Specialty Industry
SILJ Junior Silver Miners ETF Precious Metals Miners

When you review my article from October 23 and the November 6 follow up article related to these stock picks, you will quickly see that all of these stocks exhibited similar types of technical patterns.  They were all bottoming in an extended rounded bottom formation and had all started to near a Pennant/Flag Apex in price.  Additionally, many of them, with the exception of SILJ, had set up a very clear RSI technical divergence pattern over the course of setting up the extended bottom in price.

My research team and I selected these stocks because of key expectations related to the post-election mentality of investors related to various sectors.  First, the cannabis sector had a number of new US states approve cannabis legislation – providing for an expected increase in business activity for the entire cannabis sector.  Second, no matter who won the election, another round of stimulus was likely to be approved resulting in increased economic opportunity for companies like GE and AAL.  The Travel and Leisure sector still had its risks as a surge in COVID cases could greatly disrupt future travel expectations.  Junior Silver Miners was our “hedge trade”.  If none of these other stocks started to rally, then Silver Miners would likely move 15% to 20%+ higher over time.

We thought it would be a good time to check in with our picks to share the importance of using sector trends to your advantage.  Currently, there are dozens of sectors that are either in a solid bullish trend or are shifting into new bullish trends.  Being able to catch these setups early and having the confidence to act on these trends is very important. We highlighted some of these setups in our October 23 article, but they happen all the time in various market sectors.

What is important is being able to see the setups, identify the sectors that have the strongest capability for future trends, then determining if you should trade the Sector ETF or some individual stocks within that sector.  Generally, the Sector ETFs provide enough liquidity and opportunity that you don’t need to worry about the individual stocks.  Yet, sometimes, applying the same techniques to the strongest sector stocks can add a very valuable component to your trading.

Below, we have highlighted the accomplishments of each stock symbol over the past 60+ days.  For this example, we will estimate a $20k allocation for ALL TRADES ($5k each) and use a simple 33% target allocation for Target 1, Target 2, and the Trailing Remainder.  That means, we take 33% of the position off at Targets 1 and 2, then let the remaining 33% trail with a protective stop.

Symbol Entry Price Target 1 % Target 2 % Last Price %
AAL $12.60 39.81% NA 22.44%
ACB $4.68 124.35% NA 114.72%
GE $7.63 22.77% NA 48.56%
SILJ $14.68 NA NA 10.11%

Our $20k sample account would look something like this right now…

Symbol Entry Price Target 1 $ Target 2 $ Last Price $
AAL $12.60 $656.87 NA $6,408.61
ACB $4.68 $2,068.28 NA $10,802.59
GE $7.63 $375.71 NA $6,995.44
SILJ $14.68 NA NA $5,505.50
Total => $29,712.14

Overall, this represents a +48.5% net account profit in just over 60 days by focusing on sector trends and rotations.  In the future, if any of our higher Target levels are reached, we’ll pull another 33% of these trades and lock in these gains while we let the remaining position carry forward with a trailing stop.  The trailing stop should be based on the last completed target level reached.  For example, if Target 1 is reached, then the stop should be placed just below the Entry Price level.  If Target 2 is reached, then the stop should be placed just below the Target 1 level and it should begin to trail higher as new price highs are reached.

Usually, we will pick an exit price level based on some type of trend failure or reversal point.  In most cases, this happens when the longer-term (Weekly based) moving averages change direction and price activity displays a clear technical pattern showing the bullish trend has ended.  Most traders are capable of determining their own exit points using technical indicators and other tools as they wish.

When some sector is trending very strongly, we don’t want to attempt to second guess the peak level or end of the trend.  We just want to ride that trend for as much profit as we can – unless some other sector sets up a new opportunity where we can better deploy our assets for profits. We like to let the trend work itself to an eventual end and use our Target Levels to lock in gains along the way.

American Airlines Trade

The following Weekly chart of American Airlines (AAL) highlights the simple trade we suggested on October 23, 2020.  As you can see, the upward sloping lows in price aligned with the upward sloping RSI trend (in the lower pane).  AAL has reached our first target level (the MAGENTA line) and has recently settled near $15.13.  Our stop level should be just below our entry price level, near or below $12.60 at this time as we wait to see how the bullish trend continues.

In Part II of this article, we’ll go over the remaining three stock symbols we initially suggested on October 23, 2020 and highlight even more details related to sector trending.

Many years ago I was researching Japanese Candlesticks and the teaching of Seiki Shimizu (The Japanese chart of charts: Shimiz) settled well with my thinking.  In his writing, he suggests that more than 60% of the time traders are waiting for new setups/trades.  This is something that many traders need to fully understand in order to balance aggressive trading tendencies with their abilities to create profits and protect assets.

If this theory is correct, then trades only need to focus on the 30% to 40% of any 12-month span of time  (three to four months) where the bigger sector trends/trades setup and initiate.  Otherwise, these trends may continue, in some form, over the remainder of the time to generate profits (or not).  This type of thinking suggests that traders only need to focus on the best immediate setups in any market trends/sectors and ignore the “froth” in the markets on a day-to-day basis.  Doing so will allow most traders the freedom to create profits by taking skilled and effective entry triggers while being able to enjoy life, family, and other hobbies.

Trading does not need to be a full-time, 24/7 effort.  The global markets generate big sweeping sector trends sometimes 2 to 4 times a year as capital moves in and out of various trend cycles (short, intermediate, and long term).  All we have to do is find the best sectors to trade, then wait for the trigger/entry setup. Now, imagine what it would be like if you could accomplish something like this every week or month with technology? You can with my BAN Trader Pro strategy and Hotlist.

BAN Trader Pro can help you identify and trade the Best Asset Now.  The BAN Hotlist helps us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector.  Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to profit from sector rotation with my strategy. You can sign up here for my 100% educational webinar for free.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Have a great week!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

Aurora Cannabis Inc Gets Smoked After Announcing Share Offering

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) plunged 7.71% Wednesday after the Canadian-based marijuana company announced it plans to sell more shares for growth opportunities, working capital, and other corporate activities. Under the proposed $125 million capital raising, Aurora expects to sell each new share for $7.50 with an attached warrant that allows the buyer to purchase another share for $9 within 40 months of the close date. However, the company said final terms would be finalized at the time of pricing.

Since the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election, the stock has been on a high in anticipation of a cannabis-friendly Biden administration and reporting quarterly sales that came in well ahead of expectations. While the company’s fiscal Q1 revenue of $52.2 million declined 10% from a year earlier, the figure comfortably topped Street forecasts of $48.9 million. Moreover, Aurora said it expects to reach positive adjusted EBITDA next quarter.

As of Nov. 12, 2020, the stock has a market capitalization of $1.23 billion and trades up a massive 73% over the past week. Despite the recent surge, the shares have tumbled 70.45% year to date (YTD).

Wall Street View

Earlier this week, Cantor Fitzgerald’s Pablo Zuanic lowered his price target on the stock to C$12 from C$13 but reiterated the firm’s Neutral rating. The analyst cited disappointing Canadian recreational and medical cannabis Q1 sales along with a declining market share in the recreational business for the downgrade.

However, Zuanic likes the company’s shift from value to premium pot offerings. “The volatility notwithstanding, we think the relative valuation [versus other pot companies] leaves little downside,” he wrote in a research note to clients cited by Barron’s.

Elsewhere on the Street, other analysts also sit mostly on the fence. The stock receives 14 ‘Hold’ ratings, 1 ‘Overweight’ rating, and 4 ‘Sell’ ratings. Price targets range from a high of $12.34 to a low of $4.99. Wednesday’s $7.66 close offers a 5.7% premium to analysts’ 12-month consensus target of $8.10.

Technical Outlook and Trading Tactics

Since forging a 5-year low beneath $4 in late October, Aurora shares have staged an impressive upside reversal on heavy volume, breaking above both a multi-month downtrend line and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) – albeit temporarily. In the past few trading sessions, profit takers have moved in as investors digest the company’s Q1 earnings and yesterday’s capital raising announcement.

Active traders should view the current retracement as a “buy the dip” opportunity, given price action has flipped the downtrend line from resistance into support at the $6.70 area. In terms of trade management, consider placing a stop-loss order beneath last month’s low at $3.71 and targeting a move to crucial overhead resistance at $18.

Four Stocks To Consider Buying Before The US Elections

Our research team put together this list of stocks to help you understand how to attempt to target strategic gains between now and 30 to 60 days after the elections. If you have not been paying attention to what is happening in the markets right now, be sure to read to the end of this report.

If you have not already prepared for the election event, and the pending chaos that is likely to happen after the elections, you better start doing something to protect your portfolio right now. Leaving your portfolio exposed in the moderate to high risk sectors in your IRA or 401k could result in some wicked risks to your total capital if you are not cautious.

ARE YOU READY FOR A VOLATILTY SPIKE AND THE RISKS TO YOUR PORTFOLIO?

Personally, I’ve been getting calls from my family and friends over the past few weeks urgently asking me “what should I do with my retirement money?” and “how should I protect my assets before the elections?”. My family knows if they do nothing to protect their capital, the could be exposed to a -20% or -30% draw down if the market moves lower after the election. We don’t know of anyone that wants to ride out another -20% to -30% correction in the markets – right?

Well, if you are interested in taking a small portion of your capital and attempting to profit from these four simple stock picks we’ve identified, you may feel quite a bit better about how you managed your capital throughout the election event and over the next 30 to 60+ days.

First off, each of these symbols targets key benefits we believe will take place (or have a moderately high likelihood of taking place) after the elections. Secondarily, each of these symbols has setup a very clear technical pattern that suggests “the bottom is in”. Lastly, we’re only including FOUR symbols that we feel are properly hedged for risk – we’ll explain everything in more detail as we go through each symbol. Each of these chart will show very clear support levels in BLUE on each chart. Use your best judgment to identify proper stop levels for each of these setups. You must allow room for the trade to mature and initiate a rally attempt in order to secure the profit potential. It should be fairly easy to see the opportunities in each of these picks. Let’s get started.

American Airlines: AAL Weekly Chart

Airlines are going to benefit from the stimulus package that will be secured shortly after the elections. One way or another, the US government must support essential transportation services through any extended economic shutdown or further COVID economic collapse. There will be some rescue package for the airline sector, we believe, within 30 days after the elections.

The basing support level, shown by the lower BLUE line on this Weekly chart, highlights the upward price trend that we believe support another attempt at a price breakout (higher). We believe the news of a stimulus package that supports an Airline rescue plan will prompt a moderately strong upside price move that could target +35% to +65% levels from the current $12.72 price levels. Ultimately, key resistance exists near the $28.50 level. Therefore, we believe this resistance level will act as a major future price ceiling going forward.

Aurora Cannabis: ACB Weekly Chart

The cannabis sector may benefit from a change at the state and local government level. The extended basing support level and Pennant/Flag formation, shown by the lower BLUE lines on this Weekly chart, highlights the upward price trend that we believe supports a price breakout attempt (higher). We believe the potential for ACB to begin a new rally will initiate shortly after the US elections and will prompt a moderately strong upside price move that could target +115% to +235% levels from the current $4.88 price levels. Ultimately, key resistance exists near the $32.76 level. Therefore, we believe this resistance level will act as a major future price ceiling going forward.

General Electric: GE Weekly Chart

General Electric Company may benefit from any new infrastructure plans related to new policy/plans on the federal/state level. The extended basing support level and Pennant/Flag formation, shown by the lower BLUE lines on this Weekly chart, highlights the upward price trend that we believe supports a price breakout attempt (higher). We believe the potential for GE to begin a new rally will initiate shortly after the US elections and will prompt a moderately strong upside price move that could target +25% to +55% levels from the current $7.39 price levels. Ultimately, key resistance exists near the $18.05 level. Therefore, we believe this resistance level will act as a major future price ceiling going forward.

Silver Miners Juniors: SILV Weekly Chart

Junior Silver Miners are the “Hedge Trade” component for this simple portfolio. We believe Silver and Silver Miners will initiate a new upside price rally very shortly after the US elections and we believe this trade is an efficient “hedge” to the risk associated with the other three symbols in this simple portfolio. The extended basing support level and Pennant/Flag formation, shown by the lower BLUE lines on this Weekly chart, highlights the upward price trend that we believe supports a price breakout attempt (higher).

Silver miners should perform well once the price of gold starts a new uptrend and starts to rally towards $2200 price level. Fibonacci extension measured moves allow you to forecast where gold should rally to next as shown in this Sept 23rd article. We believe the potential for SILJ to begin a new rally will initiate shortly after the US elections and will prompt a moderately strong upside price move that could target +35% to +65% levels from the current $14.98 price levels. Ultimately, key resistance exists near the $32.95 level. Therefore, we believe this resistance level will act as a major future price ceiling going forward.

Concluding Thoughts:

We hope you find the value in these four simple picks we have presented and understand how you can help to protect your investment portfolio by allocating a small portion of your portfolio into these opportunities. There is no guarantee that these picks will rally as we expect. There is no guarantee that the COVID-19 infections won’t skyrocket again – potentially shutting down the global economy again. You have to use your skills and abilities to manage these trades ON YOUR OWN. We are just showing you four potential trade setups that we believe have a strong likelihood of initiating an upside price move near or after the US elections. We hope you strongly consider the message we are trying to convey to you – protect your assets and prepare for extended volatility.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Chris Vermeulen

Chief Market Strategies

www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

CBD Prices Weighed Down by Rising Supply in 2020; Industry has Huge Growth Potential

According to Leafreport, over two-thirds of brands slashed their prices this year to some degree. The report also said CBD prices plunged 17% in 2020 from last year, except prices for pet edibles which surged 44%.

Moreover, the decline in prices for hemp biomass, falling production costs and firms’ aim to reach low-income household amid rising jobless rate due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic have also contributed to this year’s drop.

Indeed, owner of CBD company Kind Lab, Angela Arena in an interview with Leafreport, said that one of the most significant reasons for CBD’s steady price decline in 2020 is that more hemp suppliers have entered the market since the passage of the 2018 Farm Bill legalized hemp cultivation. With the increased access to hemp, more and more CBD brands were able to enter the market.

Kind Lab’s Arena further stated that “prices were so high because the supply was so low, but we’re starting to see that drop, especially as people get creative and find ways to produce lower-cost products and introduce those into the market, it’s going to become a lot more price competitive,” noted Leafreport.

According to Hemp Benchmarks, an overall price of hemp CBD biomass plunged about 80% from April last year to April 2020 – dropped to $8.1 per pound from $38.0 per pound.

There are other factors that influence the pricing decision of a CBD product – the underlying costs associated with certain certifications, quality testing with third-party and merchant fees that factor into the sale of the product at clinics and online.

“A good way to make sure a CBD product is worth the money is to check how it is advertised. It’s always worth checking if the label says USDA Organic certified and if the brand publishes their certificates of third-party analysis (COAs) on their website. Also, as Terwilliger notes, look for a little orange stamp that says U.S. Hemp Authority Certified. This third-party organization evaluates the transparency of a brand’s testing protocol, quality manual, marketing, and more,” Leafreport added.

Investment in Emerging Cannabis Industry

Cannabis is an emerging industry and is subject to regulatory headwinds. Although the industry is still emerging, legal cannabis has gone through multiple iterations. The business started as a flower-based market aimed at catering to the needs of stoners and thereafter, blossomed to a more retail-centric market that experimented with multiple edibles, beverages and concentrates.

Most recently, the cannabis industry has further widened its reach to target a broad base of the audience whose main aim is not to get intoxicated but rather to be cured of some form of the diseases.

While over half of the population is in favour of new the legalization, only a few states have thus far legalized cannabis for recreational use and the product remains illegal at the federal level.

Much work and changes are still required to occur for this industry to realize its full potential.

“If you are considering investing in a U.S. company that is connected to the cannabis industry, be aware that cannabis-related companies may be at risk of federal and/or state criminal prosecution. The Department of Treasury has issued guidance that The Controlled Substances Act (“CSA”) makes it illegal under U.S. federal law to manufacture, distribute, or dispense cannabis and cannabis-related products. Many states impose and enforce similar prohibitions. Notwithstanding the federal ban, however, many U.S. states and the District of Columbia have legalized certain cannabis-related activities,” said Eric Assaraf of Cowen and Company.

Based on Jefferies Virtual Cannabis Summit, which hosted over 200 investors on Oct 7-8, the first point of the panel discussion was the Cannabidiol market size in the United States. There was a range of different estimates but the panellists were largely consistent about their growth predictions for the industry post-COVID-19, expecting it to grow at CAGR of 20%-25% over the next five years on a conservative basis and 30%-40%, when speaking optimistically.

The panellists were also on the same page when discussing the end uses of Cannabidiol which are quite profuse and span across personal use goods, medical products and CPG products. The CBD penetration right now is only 15% of households and therefore there is a big untapped opportunity for the industry to capitalize on, Jefferies added.