ADA Price Prediction: Bulls Eye $0.330 on Softer US Inflation Numbers

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, ADA rose by 3.24% to end the day at $0.319.
  • News of China planning to ease COVID-19 lockdown measures and Fed Chair Powell delivered a bullish session.
  • However, ADA was under pressure this morning, with US inflation figures capable of derailing Powell’s pivot talk.

On Wednesday, ADA rose by 3.24%. Following a 0.98% gain from Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.319.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early morning low of $0.308. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.305, ADA rose to a late high of $0.321. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.324 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.316 to end the day at $0.319.

Fed Chair Powell and the NASDAQ Composite Index Deliver ADA Support

On Wednesday, investor sentiment towards the protests across China shifted. Reports of the Chinese government planning to ease lockdown measures supported a breakout morning. However, apprehension ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech and mixed US economic indicators led to a pullback before a late rally.

Fed Chair Powell talked about easing the pace of interest rate hikes, driving demand for riskier assets. The NASDAQ Composite Index rallied by 4.41%, with the crypto market ending the session up 3.98% to $820.7 billion.

There were no network updates from Input Output HK or founder Charles Hoskinson to influence ahead of tomorrow’s weekly development update.

The lack of network updates will likely leave ADA in the hands of the US economic calendar and the NASDAQ Composite Index today. Softer inflation figures and dovish FOMC member chatter would support another bullish session.

The NASDAQ mini was down 34 points this morning.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.31% to $0.318. A bearish morning saw ADA fall from an early high of $0.320 to a low of $0.314 before steadying.

ADA in the red.
ADAUSD 011222 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.316 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.324. A move through the Wednesday high of $0.321 would signal a breakout session. However, ADA would need price-friendly US stats, FOMC member chatter, and IOHK updates to support a bullish session.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.329 and $0.335 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.342.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.311 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.305 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.303.

A pickup in US inflationary pressure could reverse bets of a Fed pivot that would bring S2 ($0.303) into view.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.290.

ADA resistance levels in play above the pivot.
ADAUSD 011222 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.323. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

An ADA breakout from the 100-day EMA ($0.323) and R1 ($0.324) would support a run at R2 ($0.329). However, a slide through the 50-day EMA ($0.314) would support a fall through S1 ($0.311) to bring S2 ($0.304) into view.

EMAs remain bearish.
ADAUSD 011222 4-Hourly Chart

 

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – Powell and the NASDAQ Fuel a Breakout

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten. MATIC led the way, with ETH revisiting $1,300.
  • Investor sentiment toward China’s zero-COVID policy, FTX contagion risk, and market reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s speech supported a breakout session.
  • The crypto market cap jumped by $31.4 billion to end the day at $820.9 billion.

It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten. MATIC led the way, with DOGE and ETH also making bullish moves. BTC wrapped up the day at $17,000 for the first time in nineteen sessions.

Investor sentiment towards China’s zero-COVID policy and easing FTX contagion risk delivered early support.

However, Fed Chair Powell delivered a late rally. Following mixed US labor market numbers, the Fed Chair supported the market bets of a December Fed pivot. On Wednesday, the Fed Chair talked of moderating the pace of interest rate increases, reportedly saying,

“It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”

During the speech, investor reaction was evident, with the crypto market cap jumping by $16.5 billion. US economic indicators had delivered mixed reactions ahead of Powell’s speech.

The NASDAQ Composite Index also responded to the Powell speech, rallying 4.41% to end November on a high.

Later today, US inflation and personal spending figures will provide further direction along with FOMC member chatter. A spike in inflation and spending and hawkish Fed chatter would test buyer appetite.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 011222 5 Minute Chart

Crypto Market Returns to $800bn on China COVID Policy and Powell

On Wednesday, the crypto market cap rose from an early low of $787.2 billion to a late high of $827.6 billion. While hopes of China easing lockdown measures supported a bullish start to the day, Fed Chair Powell delivered the session high.

The $31.4 billion surge on Wednesday left the market cap down $151.1 billion to $820.9 billion for November.

Crypto market sees heavy November loss.
Total Market Cap 011222 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten.

MATIC led the way, surging by 11.41%, with DOGE and ETH seeing gains of 5.13% and 6.49%, respectively.

However, ADA (+3.24%), BNB (+1.79%), BTC (+4.42%), and XRP (+2.43%) trailed the front runners.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a bullish session.

GMX (GMX) led the way, surging by 18.24%, with fantom (FTM) and polygon (MATIC) seeing gains of 12.52% and 11.41%, respectively.

However, huobi token (HT) led the way down, falling by 2.23%, with celo (CELO) ending the day with a 0.49% loss.

24-Hour Liquidations Inch Higher in a Powell-Fueled Breakout

Over 24 hours, total liquidations climbed as investors raised bets of China easing lockdown measures and reacted to Fed Chair Powell’s speech.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $86.43 million, up from $73.29 million on Wednesday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also increased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 25,085 versus 19,696 on Wednesday morning. However, liquidations were down over 12 and four hours and over one hour.

Crypto liquidations rise over 24-hours.
Total Crypto Liquidations 011222

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations fell from $49.01 million to $32,75 million, with four-hour liquidations down from $37.42 million to $8.52 million. One-hour liquidations slid from $36.06 million to $2.13 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market enjoyed a late breakout.
Total Market Cap 011222 Hourly Chart

ADA Price Prediction: Bulls Eye $0.325 on Hopes of a December Fed Pivot

Key Insights:

  • On Tuesday, ADA rose by 0.98% to end the day at $0.309. While ADA ended a two-day losing streak, ADA trailed the top ten cryptos.
  • A shift in sentiment towards China’s zero-COVID policy led to decoupling from the NASDAQ Composite Index.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting at the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

On Tuesday, ADA rose by 0.98%. Partially reversing a 2.24% loss from Monday, ADA ended the day at $0.309.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early morning low of $0.304. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.299, ADA rose to a late morning high of $0.312. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.313, ADA fell back to $0.306 before ending the day in positive territory.

China and Fed Chair Powell Are Market Focal Points Mid-Week

On Tuesday, the investors experienced a reversal of fortunes. Hopes of the Chinese government easing COVID lockdown measures drove demand for riskier assets. The upside came despite no government hints of a shift in policy.

ADA and the broader market avoided tracking the NASDAQ Composite into negative territory. Market apprehension towards Fed Chair Powell’s speech later today left the NASDAQ in the red.

This morning, weak economic indicators from China and reports of more protests in China failed to spook investors.

Later today, Fed Chair Powell could give investors policy guidance. Powell will speak about the economy and the labor market late in the US session. Ahead of the Powell speech, GDP, ADP nonfarm employment change, and JOLTs job openings will draw interest. However, we expect the labor market numbers to have more influence on riskier assets.

There were no updates from Input Output HK (IOHK) or founder Charles Hoskinson to influence, leaving ADA in the hands of Powell and the NASDAQ Composite Index today. The NASDAQ mini was up 22.75 points this morning.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 1.94% to $0.315. A bullish morning saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.308 to a high of $0.319.

ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.313 and briefly through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.316.

ADA on the move.
ADAUSD 301122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid falling through R1 and the $0.308 pivot to retarget the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.316 and the morning high of $0.319. A return to $0.319 would support a bullish afternoon session.

In case of an extended rally, the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.324 and $0.325 would come into play.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.305 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.300. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.300 should limit the downside.

Hawkish Fed chair Powell chatter could reverse bets of a Fed pivot that would bring sub-$0.300 into view.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.292.

ADA resistance levels in play.
ADAUSD 301122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.314. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

An ADA breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.314) would support a move through R2 ($0.316) to bring R3 ($0.324) into play. However, a slide through the 50-day EMA and R1 ($0.313) would support a fall through S1 ($0.305) to bring S2 ($0.300) into view.

EMAs remain bearish.
ADAUSD 301122 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE and ETH Lead the Top Ten

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Tuesday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE led the way, with ETH returning to $1,200.
  • Investor sentiment toward China eased, supporting a broad-based crypto rebound.
  • The crypto market cap rose by $13.3 billion to end the day at $789.4 billion.

It was a bullish Tuesday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE led the way, with ETH also making a move. Despite the bullish sentiment, BTC fell short of $17,000 for a thirteenth consecutive session while avoiding sub-$16,000 for a seventh successive session.

US economic indicators failed to curtail the Tuesday rebound despite consumer confidence deteriorating. In November, the CB Consumer Confidence Index fell from 102.2 to 100.2.

However, while the crypto market enjoyed a bullish session, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day with a 0.59% loss. Apprehension ahead of today’s Fed Chair Powell speech weighed.

Easing jitters over China’s zero-COVID policy, supported by the Hang Seng and the CSI300, delivered the Tuesday crypto rebound. Easing FTX contagion risk also contributed, however.

NASDAQ decoupling.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 301122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Bounces Back as China Risk Aversion Abated

On Tuesday, the crypto market cap slid to an early low of $770.2 billion before rising to a late morning high of $800.1 billion.

Bullish sentiment throughout the morning session supported the market recovery of Monday’s losses.

However, a mixed afternoon session saw the market cap fall back to $785 before finding support. A bullish end to the session left the market cap up by $13.3 billion to $789.4 billion on the day.

Crypto market on the move
Total Market Cap 301122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bullish Tuesday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE led the way, rising by 6.74%, with ETH gaining 4.17%.

However, ADA (+0.98%), BNB (+0.65%), BTC (+1.48%), MATIC (+2.00%), and XRP (+2.36%) trailed the front runners.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Huobi token (HT) led the way, rallying by 8.1%, with ETH and DOGE among the front runners.

However, binaryX (BNX) led the way down, falling by 2.92%, with kucoin token (KCS) and nexo (NEXO) seeing losses of 1.95% and 2.50%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Eased on a Bullish Tuesday and Wednesday Morning

Over 24 hours, total liquidations slipped below normal levels. Sentiment towards China and FTX contagion delivered crypto market support, leading to the fall in liquidations.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $73.29 million, down from $91.98 million on Tuesday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also decreased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 19,696 versus 34,626 on Tuesday morning. However, Liquidations were up over 12 and four hours and over one hour.

Crypto liquidations spike over the last hour.
Total Crypto Liquidations 301122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations rose from $30.63 million to $49.01 million, with four-hour liquidations up from $1.53 million to $37.42 million. One-hour liquidations jumped from $0.275 million $36.06 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market spikes in first hour of the morning.
Total Market Cap 301122 Hourly Chart

Some Demand Stabilisation in Crypto

Market Picture

Bitcoin declined on Monday along with stock indices, testing six-day lows near $16K, following a decline in demand for risky assets due to unrest in China. Near this round level, the first cryptocurrency saw a demand, and in early trading on Tuesday, cryptocurrencies rose more actively than traditional markets, bringing the price of Bitcoin back to $16.5K.

Bitcoin 1 hour chart

According to CoinMarketCap, total capitalisation rose 2.2% overnight to $835bn, while the top coins add between 2% (Cardano) and 9% (Dogecoin), and Ethereum is again hovering around $1200.

The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of buying on the downturn and has been performing better than stocks for the past 24 hours, bolstering buyers’ hopes.

Major players continue to go bust, adding the BlockFi platform to the list, and Hong Kong exchange AAX is having problems. The market seems to be taking this news as part of the sector’s recovery process, with weaker projects leaving.

News Background

Santiment notes that wallets with large balances (100-10,000 BTC), after three weeks of net sales of 1.36% of total volume, have accumulated 0.24% in the last five days. It looks like the whales may be about to stop selling.

Meanwhile, Glassnode claims smaller players are increasingly buying bitcoin on the dips. Investors with less than 1 BTC balance have added 96,200 BTC to their total holdings since the FTX crash.

According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $23 million last week, with the outflow of funds the highest in 11 weeks. Bitcoin investments decreased by $10m, and Ethereum by $6m. Investments in funds allowing shorts on bitcoin increased by $9m. Negative market sentiment persists after the FTX collapse, CoinShares noted.

Regulators could take years to catch up and successfully control the cryptocurrency industry, so the industry needs to learn how to do it independently, says billionaire Bill Eckman.

by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich

ADA Price Prediction: Bulls to Target $0.320 on Risk-on Sentiment

Key Insights:

  • On Monday, ADA fell by 2.24% to end the day at $0.306.
  • A NASDAQ Composite Index-fueled sell-off led ADA to test support at $0.300 before steadying.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

On Monday, ADA fell by 2.24%. Following a 0.32% loss on Sunday, ADA ended the day at $0.306.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early morning high of $0.314. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.318, ADA slid to an early low of $0.300. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.310 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.306.

However, finding late afternoon support, ADA broke back through the Major Support Levels before falling back through S1 to end the day at $0.306.

Input Output HK Silence Leaves ADA in the Hands of the NASDAQ Index

There were no network updates from Input Output HK or founder Charles Hoskinson to provide direction.

On Monday, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 1.58%, weighed by news of protests in China over the government’s zero-COVID policy. BlockFi filing for bankruptcy failed to spook investors, however. ADA found late support to reduce the deficit on the day.

This morning, the NASDAQ continued to influence, with the NASDAQ mini gaining 64.75 points. Risk-on sentiment, fueled by bets of the Chinese government easing restrictions, supported riskier assets through the Asian session.

Later today, FTX-related news and the NASDAQ Composite Index will likely remain the key drivers. US economic indicators and Fed chatter could impact market risk sentiment.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 1.63% to $0.311. A bullish morning saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.304 to a high of $0.312.

ADA finds morning support.
ADAUSD 291122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.307 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.313 and the Monday high of $0.314. A return to $0.315 would support a bullish afternoon session.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.321 and $0.325 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.335.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.299 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.295 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.293. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.279.

Negative FTX-linked news would test support at $0.295.

ADA resistance levels in play above the pivot.
ADAUSD 291122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.315. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through R1 ($0.313) would bring the 50-day EMA ($0.315) and R2 ($0.321) into play. However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure and sub-$0.300 in view.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 291122 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – BNB Led a NASDAQ Fueled Pullback

Key Insights:

  • It was a bearish Monday session for the crypto top ten. Binance coin (BNB) led the way down for a second consecutive session.
  • Risk aversion stemming from China protests sent the crypto market into the red, with news of BlockFi filing for bankruptcy adding to the negative sentiment.
  • The crypto market cap fell by $13.6 billion to end the day at $776.2 billion.

It was a bearish Monday session for the crypto top ten. BNB led the way down for a second day. Despite the bearish sentiment, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for a sixth consecutive session.

Trading volumes rose on Monday as investors returned from the US Thanksgiving holidays. However, there was no post holiday cheer to support the crypto market, with news of protests across China weighing on investor appetite.

The NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day with a 1.58% loss.

News of BlockFi filing for bankruptcy added to the bearish mood. While attributing the bankruptcy filing to the demise of FTX, BlockFi stated,

“BlockFi has $256.9 million in cash on hand, which is expected to provide sufficient liquidity to support certain operations during the restructuring process.”

However, the Company did note that while the Company will focus on recovering all obligations owed, there will be delays in recoveries from FTX.

For the day ahead, US economic indicators, Fed chatter, and the NASDAQ Index will continue to provide direction. Investors will also need to monitor the crypto news for further updates on FTX-related news, including the BlockFi bankruptcy filing.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 291122 5 Minute Chart

Crypto Market Falls on NASDAQ Composite Pullback and BlockFi

On Monday, the crypto market rose to an early high of $793.8 billion before sliding to a late afternoon low of $763.7 billion. Late in the day, the crypto market cap briefly revisited $783 billion before sliding back to sub-$800 billion.

The bearish end to the day left the market cap down by $13.6 billion to $776.2 billion.

Crypto market sees more red.
Total Market Cap 291122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bearish Monday session for the crypto top ten.

BNB led the way down, sliding by 4.59%, with DOGE falling by 3.55%.

However, ADA (-2.24%), BTC (-1.36%), ETH (-2.18%), MATIC (-2.51%), and XRP (-1.91%) also struggled.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Fantom (FTM) led the way, rallying by 10.13%, with apecoin (APE) and chainlink (LINK) seeing gains of 5.47% and 4.45%, respectively.

However, celo (CELO) led the way down, sliding by 13.23%, with UNUS SED LEO (LEO) and huobi token (HT) seeing losses of 9.90% and 8.92%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Jump on Rising Volumes and Risk Aversion

Over 24 hours, total liquidations returned to normal levels alongside increased trading volumes. Risk aversion stemming from the China protests sent liquidations higher, with BlockFi’s bankruptcy filing contributing.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $91.98 million, up from $39.52 million on Monday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also increased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 34,626 versus 15,088 on Monday morning. Liquidations were up over 12 hours while down over four hours and one hour.

Crypto liquidations.
Total Crypto Liquidations 291122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations rose from $16.93 million to $30.63 million. Four-hour liquidations fell from $10.98 million to $1.53 million, with one-hour liquidations down from $9.67 million to $0.275 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market steadied late in the session.
Total Market Cap 291122 Hourly Chart

Bitcoin’s Never-ending Search for a Bottom

Market Picture

Bitcoin closed last week with a new formal decline, losing $100 to $16490. At the start of trading on Monday, it loses another $360 to $16150. The week starts with a subdued risk appetite on global markets due to China unrest. Ethereum is performing better, adding 3.3% over the week to $1170. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 are changing from -2.5% (Polkadot) to 22.2% (Dogecoin).

Bitcoin daily chart

Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, was up 2% for the week, to $817bn. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index rose to 28 by Monday, moving into “fear” versus “extreme fear” at 21 a week earlier.

Bitcoin has updated two-year lows below $15,500 in the past week on news of the possible bankruptcy of cryptocurrency lending service Genesis Global Capital. Bitcoin is under pressure from institutionalists whose risk appetite is firmly tied to stock markets. Bitcoin continues to look for a bottom from which it can push back, but the negative external backdrop is not yet conducive to buying.

News Background

According to Barron’s, Genesis Global Capital has been the subject of an investigation by US regulators over the suspension of withdrawals and the company’s liquidity crisis. It is unclear whether US federal regulators are involved, but at the very least, Alabama state supervisory agencies are investigating.

The DeFi-project Ardana team from the Cardano blockchain ecosystem has said it has suspended its development due to “uncertainty over funding and the timing of the project”.

Bloomberg, a news agency, reports that Cryptocurrency lender Matrixport is seeking funding for $100 million. And while the company says the moves have nothing to do with a lack of liquidity, investors are little reassured.

Analysis of Bitcoin transactions helped British police arrest over 100 people in the biggest anti-fraud operation in UK history, led by Scotland Yard. The iSpoof website was taken down, and phone fraud suspects were caught.

by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich

ADA Price Prediction: Bears Target Sub-$0.300 on Risk Aversion

Key Insights:

  • On Sunday, ADA fell by 0.32% to end the week up 0.32% to $0.313
  • ADA was range-bound until a final-hour reversal, fueled by the NASDAQ mini that responded to news of social unrest in China.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting at the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

On Sunday, ADA ended the day with a 0.32% loss. After a flat Saturday session, ADA ended the week up 0.32% to $0.313.

A bullish morning saw ADA rise to a mid-morning high of $0.319. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.320, ADA succumbed to broader market forces in the final hour, sliding to a low of $0.311. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.309, ADA wrapped up the day at $0.313.

It was another quiet session, with the US Thanksgiving Holidays leaving trading volumes on the lighter side.

ADA trading volumes remain depressed.
CMC ADA Trading Volumes 281122

Overnight, a lack of network news left ADA in the hands of the broader crypto market.

Charles Hoskinson Fails to Distract Investors from China News

In the final hour of the Sunday session (UTC), the NASDAQ mini kicked off the post-Thanksgiving holidays with a fall into negative territory.

Crude oil prices, the Hang Seng, the CSI300, and the DAX were also in the red. With little else for crypto investors to consider, the ADA and the crypto market tracked riskier assets into negative territory.

News of protests across China over the Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy and lockdown measures raised red flags. With new COVID-19 cases on the rise on Monday, stringent lockdown measures could disrupt supply chains and create uncertainty over inflation and economic growth.

Weekend updates from Input Output HK (IOHK) were not impressive enough to distract investors. Charles Hoskinson was also unable to distract investors from the news wires.

On Sunday, IOHK republished the weekly development report that showed a modest increase in projects on the Cardano network. Investors continue to hold out for an influx of projects following the Vasil hard fork.

Media outlets also continued to cover Charles Hoskinson’s response to the announcements of Aradana and Orbis halting projects on the Cardano network. Hoskinson failed to provide comfort, with the collapse of FTX shattering investor trust.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 2.56% to $0.305. A bearish morning saw ADA slide from an early high of $0.314 to a low of $0.300.

ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.310 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.306.

ADA under pressure.
ADAUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the Major Support Levels and the $0.314 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.318. Avoiding sub-$0.300 and a return to $0.315 would signal a breakout afternoon session. The NASDAQ Composite Index and FTX news updates will likely be focal points beyond Cardano network updates.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.322 and $0.325 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.330.

Failure to move through the Major Support Levels and the pivot would leave the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.298 in play. However, barring an extended broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid the current-year low of $0.295.

Negative FTX-linked news would test support at $0.295.

ADA support levels in play.
ADAUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.316. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through the Major Support Levels would bring the 50-day EMA ($0.316) and R1 ($0.318) into play. However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure and sub-$0.300 in view.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 281122 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE Bucked a Bearish Top Ten Session

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Sunday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE led the way, while BNB gave up some of Saturday’s gains.
  • A final-hour pullback left BTC in the red and the broader crypto market flat for the session, with the NASDAQ Mini opening the week in the red.
  • The crypto market cap fell by $1.0 to end the day at $789.8 billion.

It was a mixed Sunday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE led the way while BNB gave up some of Saturday’s gains. However, BTC had another range-bound session, moving within a $193 range. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for a fifth consecutive session.

Trading volumes remained on the lower side at the end of the Thanksgiving holidays, leaving the broader crypto market to move sideways for a fifth consecutive session.

There were no updates on FTX to provide direction, though FTX contagion risk continued to subside. However, regulator risk remains a crypto market headwind, with uncertainty over the impact of the FTX collapse on the regulatory landscape likely to linger.

Following the Thanksgiving holidays, the NASDAQ Composite Index and FTX updates will provide direction today. This morning, the NASDAQ Mini was down 46.75 points, supporting the final-hour pullback.

However, with no US economic indicators for investors to consider, FOMC member chatter will need monitoring.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 281122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Falls for the Second Time in Six Sessions

It is a relatively mixed Sunday session. The crypto market rose to a late high of $805.0 billion before sliding to a final-hour low of $785.5 billion.

Risk aversion stemming from China’s latest COVID-19 lockdown measures and reports of protests in response to the crackdown weighed on riskier assets.

The final-hour reversal left the crypto market at $$789.8 billion, down $1.04 billion for the day.

Crypto market sees red.
Total Market Cap 281122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a mixed Sunday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE jumped by 10.67% to lead the way, with XRP (+0.13%) finding support.

However, BNB led the way down, falling by 1.19%, with ADA (-0.32%), BTC (-0.15%), ETH (-0.95%), and MATIC (-0.23%) seeing modest losses.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Celo (CELO) led the way, surging by 36.08%. Dogecoin (DOGE) and apecoin (APE) were among the front-runners. APE ended the day up by 10.56%.

However, chainlink (LINK) led the way down, falling by 3.50%, with curve DAO token (CRV) and nexo (NEXO) seeing losses of 2.55% and 3.31%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Fell Further Despite Modest Rise in Volumes

Over 24 hours, total liquidations fell further from normal levels amid light trading volumes. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $39.52 million versus $41.75 million on Sunday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours held steady. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 15,088 versus 15,290 on Sunday morning. However, liquidations were up over four hours and one hour while down over 12 hours.

Crypto liquidations slide.
Total Crypto Liquidations 281122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations fell from $23.67 million to $16.93 million. Four-hour liquidations rose from $6.96 million to $10.98 million, with one-hour liquidations up from $0.632 million to $9.67 million, reflecting the final-hour pullback.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market sees final hour reversal.
Total Market Cap 281122 Hourly Chart

ADA Price Prediction: A Return to $0.320 Would Support a Run at $0.330

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, ADA ended the day flat, ending a two-day losing streak.
  • Network updates and founder Charles Hoskinson failed to deliver Saturday support.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting at the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

Following a 0.63% decline on Friday, ADA ended Saturday flat at $0.314. Notably, ADA avoided sub-$0.300 for the fourth consecutive session.

A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise to an early morning high of $0.322. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.318. However, coming up short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.323, ADA fell to a late low of $0.311. Avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.308, ADA bounced back to end the day at $0.314.

It was another quiet session, with the US Thanksgiving Holiday leading to a further decline in trading volumes. Despite falling volumes, network updates have prevented a price breakout. ADA fell short of $0.340 for a tenth consecutive session.

Founder Charles Hoskinson Addresses Ardana and Orbis Project News

In the wake of the FTX collapse, investors have become more sensitive to negative crypto news. This week, Ardana announced plans to halt its stablecoin development on the Cardano network. The Ardana announcement accompanied news of Orbis halting development.

On Friday, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson posted a video to clarify the reasons behind Ardana and Orbis halting their projects.

Hoskinson said,

“This was not a funding issue. This was not a platform issue. Looks like it was a leadership issue. Things happen, people sometimes don’t execute, people make mistakes, and usually, there’s something left behind for people to salvage from these situations. Good developers, good leaders, code something.”

Hoskinson went on to say,

“My hope is as the forensics work their way through that we as an ecosystem can discover what value if any has been produced.”

Despite the failings of Ardana and Orbis, Hoskinson continued to view a positive outlook for projects on the Cardano network.

On Friday, Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Cardano Weekly Development Update. According to the November 25 release, key stats include,

  • 106 projects launched on Cardano (up by two since November 12).
  • Projects building on Cardano totaled 1,146, up from 1,139 on November 12.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.32% to $0.315. A range-bound start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.316 before easing back.

ADA finds early support.
ADAUSD 271122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.316 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.320. Avoiding sub-$0.315 and a return to $0.320 would signal a breakout session. Bullish crypto market sentiment would support a breakout from the early high.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.327 and $0.330 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.338.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.309 in play. However, barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.300. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.305 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.294.

ADA support levels in play below the pivot.
ADAUSD 271122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat at the 50-day, currently at $0.318. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.318) would support a move through R1 ($0.320) to target R2 ($0.327) and the 100-day EMA ($0.330). However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA would leave S1 ($0.309) in play. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.350.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 271122 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – BNB Led a Top Ten Mixed Session

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Saturday session for the crypto top ten. BNB led the way, while XRP gave up some of Friday’s gains.
  • Trading volumes continued the downward trend during the US Thanksgiving holidays, leaving investors with little direction.
  • The crypto market cap rose by a modest $1.9 billion to end the day at $790.8 billion.

It was a mixed Saturday session for the crypto top ten. XRP led the way down while BNB enjoyed a breakout session. However, BTC had another range-bound session, moving within a $308 range. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for a fourth consecutive session.

Trading volumes fall.
CMC Trading Volumes 271122

Trading volumes continued to fall over the Thanksgiving holidays, leaving the broader crypto market to move sideways. Adding to the lower volumes was likely investor wait-and-see sentiment before FTX updates hit the news on Monday.

In another quiet crypto session, there were no updates on FTX to provide direction nor cues from the NASDAQ Composite Index. However, uncertainty over the extent of the fallout from the FTX collapse continued to leave investors on the sidelines.

The crypto market remains at risk of another sharp decline in the event of an FTX-fueled crypto exchange collapse. However, FTX assets, including the $1.24 billion cash reserve, will cushion the blow, which has delivered BTC price support at $16,000.

After three quiet sessions, with the downward trend in trading volumes, the NASDAQ mini could reignite interest in the final hour of today’s session. The crypto market has recoupled with the NASDAQ Composite Index after the FTX-forced decoupling earlier in the month.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 271122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Moves Sideways Over Thanksgiving Holidays

It is a relatively choppy Saturday session. The crypto market rose to an early afternoon high of $807.6 billion before sliding to a late low of $784.5 billion.

However, finding late support, the crypto market wrapped up the day in positive territory, rising by $1.9 billion to end the session at $790.8 billion. The modest gain left the market down $181 billion for November.

Crypto market finds modest suppport.
Total Market Cap 271122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a mixed Saturday session for the crypto top ten.

BNB rallied by 3.53% to lead the way, with ETH (+0.51%) and MATIC (+0.20%) also finding support.

However, XRP led the way down, sliding by 2.93%, with BTC (-0.36%) and DOGE (-0.34%) ending the day in negative territory. ADA ended the day flat.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Apecoin (APE) led the way, rallying by 10.56%, with aptos (APT) and huobi token (HT) seeing gains of 7.45% and 6.67%, respectively.

However, binaryX (BNX) and GMX (GMX) ended the day with losses of 4.64% and 4.38%, respectively. Trust wallet token (TWT) fell by 3.95%.

24-Hour Liquidations Remained at Low Levels as Trading Volumes Fall

Over 24 hours, total liquidations slipped to lower levels amid lighter trading volumes. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $41.75 million versus $45.76 million on Saturday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also held steady. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 15,290 versus 15,477 on Saturday morning. However, liquidations were up over 12 and four hours while down over one hour.

Crypto liquidations fall.
Total Crypto Liquidations 271122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations rose from $16.36 million to $23.67 million, with four-hour liquidations up from $5.14 million to $6.96 million. One-hour liquidations fell from $2.27 million to $0.632 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market finds late support.
Total Market Cap 271122 Hourly Chart

ADA Price Prediction: A Hold onto $0.320 Would Bring $0.330 into Play

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, ADA fell by 0.63% to end the day at $0.314.
  • Network updates failed to deliver price support, with ADA joining the broader market in the red.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting at the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

On Friday, ADA fell by 0.63%. Following a 0.63% loss on Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.314. Notably, ADA avoided sub-$0.300 for the third consecutive session.

A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall to an early morning low of $0.307. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.311. Finding mid-morning support, ADA rose to a late high of $0.317. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.321, ADA fell back to end the day in the red.

It was a quiet Friday session, with the US Thanksgiving Holiday leading to a slide in trading volumes. However, recent network updates have weighed on ADA, which fell short of $0.340 for a ninth consecutive session.

Input Output HK Weekly Development Update Fails to Impress

On Friday, Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Cardano Weekly Development Update. According to the November 25 release, key highlights include,

  • Ongoing work on core technology improvements.
  • Lace developments are progressing.
  • SECP implementation is in the final stages.
  • Hydra v.0.8.1 and Mithril 2246.1 distribution release.
  • Cardano improvement proposal for Voltaire released.

More importantly, statistics to date were as follows:

  • 106 projects launched on Cardano (up by two since November 12).
  • Projects building on Cardano totaled 1,146, up from 1,139 on November 12.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

Other stats included 55.3 million transactions, 6.9 million tokens, and 65,539 token policies.

The latest numbers showed that the influx of projects in response to the Vasil hard fork has yet to materialize.

Founder Charles Hoskinson was also vocal at the end of the week. Hoskinson responded to a tweet relating to building stablecoins on Cardano, saying,

“It reminds me of when Mark Karpeles blamed Bitcoin for MtGox.”

The tweet was in response to a tweet from Duo Nine, which said,

“Turns out building a stablecoin on #Cardano is not possible. Development on Cardano has been difficult […] the underlying network on #ADA is currently not ideal for any protocol dealing with liquidations […] best course of action is halting development.”

Duo Nine reacted to Ardana’s Wednesday decision to halt its stablecoin development on the Cardano network.

An ADA price headwind would be news of more projects halting project development.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 1.91% to $0.320. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.314 to a high of $0.322.

ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.318.

ADA on the move.
ADAUSD 261122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to hold above R1 and the $0.313 pivot to target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.323. Avoiding sub-$0.320 would signal a breakout session. Bullish crypto market sentiment would support a breakout from the early high.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.323 and $0.330 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.333.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.308 into play. However, barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.300. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.303 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.293.

ADA resistance levels in play.
ADAUSD 261122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat at the 50-day, currently at $0.319. The 50-day EMA flattened on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.319) would support a move through R2 ($0.323) to target and the 100-day EMA ($0.332). However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA would leave S1 ($0.308) in play. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.353.

EMAs remain bearish.
ADAUSD 261122 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE and XRP Buck the Top Ten Trend

Key Insights:

  • It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE leads the way, with XRP also bucking the broader market trend.
  • A quiet crypto session, with a sharp decline in trading volume over Thanksgiving, left the NASDAQ Composite Index to weigh on sentiment.
  • The crypto market cap is down by a modest $2.8 billion to $789.1 billion, with 45 minutes of the session left.

It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE leads the way, with XRP also finding support. However, BTC joined the broader market in the red while avoiding sub-$16,000 for the third consecutive session.

With the US Thanksgiving holiday, it was a quiet Friday session, with trading volumes down through the afternoon session.

Graphical user interface, chart, histogram Description automatically generated There were no material updates on FTX to provide direction, leaving the NASDAQ Composite Index to test buyer appetite. In a shortened holiday session, the NASDAQ fell by 0.52%. Disappointing Black Friday updates and concerns over the fresh wave of COVID-19 cases in China weighed.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 261122 5 Minute Chart

While FTX contagion eased this week, investors need to wait for updates from FTX debtors. News of new asset discoveries would further reduce FTX contagion risk. However, contagion risk will remain over the near term, which will likely continue to peg the market back from a full recovery.

Investors await the identities of FTX’s creditors, which the Court agreed to redact this week.

Today, the crypto news wires will remain the investor focal point.

Crypto Market Set to End Three-Day Winning Streak on Thin Trading

It is a bearish Friday session. The crypto market slid to a mid-morning low of $776.6 billion before rebounding to a high of $798.5 billion.

However, easing back through the afternoon session, the crypto market is down $2.8 billion to $789.1 billion, with 45 minutes remaining. The market is down $182 billion for November.

Crypto market in the red.
Total Market Cap 261122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE leads the way, rallying by 9.83%, with XRP up by 1.85%.

However, the rest of the top ten are in the red, with 45 minutes (UTC) of the session remaining.

ADA (-0.32%), BTC (-0.43%), ETH (-0.28%), and MATIC (-0.81%) are heading for daily losses. BNB is currently flat for the session.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Huobi token (HT) leads the way, gaining 17.6%, with DOGE and casper (CSPR) up by 9.83% and 3.7%, respectively.

However, binaryX (BNX) leads the way down, falling by 8.31%, with UNUS SED LEO (LEO) and kava (KAVA) down by 8.49% and 5.69%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Hold Steady as Thanksgiving Lull Continues

Over 24 hours, total liquidations held steady on Friday amid lower trading volumes. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $45.76 million versus $43.88 million on Friday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also held steady. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 15,477 versus 15,589 on Friday morning. However, liquidations were up over 12 and four hours and over one hour.

Crypto liquidations hold steady.
Total Crypto Liquidations 261122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations rose from $15.10 million to $16.36 million, with four-hour liquidations up from $1.33 million to $5.14 million. One-hour liquidations were up from $2.27 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market range-bound in the US session.
Total Market Cap 261122 Hourly Chart

ADA Price Prediction: Weekly IOHK Update Could Test Buyers at $0.300

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, ADA fell by 0.63%, ending a two-day winning streak.
  • While FTX contagion risk continued to ease, a lack of news through the afternoon session left ADA on the back foot.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

On Thursday, ADA fell by 0.63%. Partially reversing a 1.92% gain from Wednesday, ADA ended the day at $0.316. Notably, ADA avoided sub-$0.300 for the second consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.321. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.323, ADA slid to a late morning low of $0.311. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.311, ADA revisited $0.317 before easing back.

It was a quiet Thursday session, with the US Thanksgiving Holiday leading trading volumes lower. A lack of crypto news events left ADA range-bound through the afternoon session.

With the US Thanksgiving Holidays in full swing, a lack of FTX-linked news would leave ADA in the hands of Cardano network updates.

Input Output HK Weekly Development Update to Draw Interest

Today, Input Output HK (IOHK) will release the Cardano Weekly Development Update. The project numbers will likely have the most influence.

Investors are awaiting an influx of projects onto the Cardano network. Expectations were high following the Vasil hard fork. However, the numbers have been lackluster.

Following news of Ardana halting its stablecoin development on the Cardano ecosystem on Wednesday, we may see a greater investor sensitivity to today’s update.

On Thursday, Ardana announced,

“Unfortunately, due to recent developments with regard to funding and project timeline uncertainty, the Ardana project has had to come to a halt. Our code will remain open source for builders to continue our work going forward as they wish.”

Ardana added,

“Remaining funds and treasury balances etc will be held by Ardana Labs until another competent dev team in the community comes forward to continue our work.”

After Ardana’s announcement, the news of other projections halting development on the Cardano network would be price-negative.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 2.22% to $0.309. A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall from an early high of $0.316 to a low of $0.307.

ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.311.

ADA in the red.
ADAUSD 251122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through S1 and the $0.316 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.321. A return to $0.320 would signal a breakout session. Bullish crypto market sentiment would support a breakout from R1.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.326 and $0.330 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.336.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would bring the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.306 into play. However, barring a contagion-fueled sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.300 and the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.296.

ADA support levels in play.
ADAUSD 251122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.319. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.319) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.321) to target and R2 ($0.326). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave sub-$0.300 in play. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.354.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 251122 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – XRP Led a Mixed Top Ten Session

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten. XRP led the top ten, with a return to $0.40.
  • While easing, lingering FTX contagion risk tested buyer appetite at current levels.
  • The crypto market cap rose by a modest $3.8 billion to $791.9 billion.

It was a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten. XRP led the way, while MATIC struggled in a relatively range-bounds session. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the second consecutive session.

With the US Thanksgiving holiday, it was a quiet Thursday session. There were no material updates on FTX to provide direction.

While contagion risk has eased following news of the FTX cash holdings and investor interest in FTX assets, uncertainty over the outlook for FTX’s largest creditors remains.

Updates from FTX debtors will likely be a key influence near term. News of new asset discoveries would further ease FTX contagion risk. However, regulatory risk will need consideration as regulators continue to respond to the collapse of FTX.

For investors in search of a positive spin, Chainalysis made a comparison between FTX and Mt. Gox on Thursday. Chainalysis said,

“Big picture: FTX’s collapse has shaken the crypto market. But it is not the first time crypto has faced significant turmoil related to the collapse of an exchange.”

In comparing the collapse of FTX with Mt. Gox, Chainalysis went on to say,

“First thing we need to ask: How prominent were Mt. Gox and FTX within the overall crypto exchange ecosystem. In the year prior to its closure, Mt. Gox averaged a 46% share of all exchange inflows, while FTX averaged around 13%.”

Considering the dented confidence, another quiet day on the crypto news wires should deliver broader market support. The US markets are on a shortened session, with no economic indicators to distract investors.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 251122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Rises for a Third Consecutive Day on Easing FTX Contagion

It was a bullish Thursday session. The crypto market rose to an early high of $802.9 billion before falling to an afternoon low of $780.5 billion. However, finding late support, the crypto market revisited $792 billion before easing back.

The bullish session left the market cap up $3.8 billion to $791.9 billion, reducing the November deficit to $188 billion.

Crypto market cap rises for a third session.
Total Market Cap 251122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten.

XRP led the way, rallying by 5.38%, with ETH (+1.63%) and BNB (+0.47%) also avoiding the red.

However, MATIC led the way down, falling by 1.53%, with ADA (-0.63%), BTC (-0.04%), and DOGE (-0.49%) also seeing red.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

BinaryX (BNX) and GMX (GMX) led the way, with gains of 9.15% and 7.59%, respectively. XRP was also a front-runner.

However, apecoin (APE) led the way down, with a loss of 4.05%, with arweave (AR) and decred (DCR) falling by 3.49% and 3.30%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Slide on Thanksgiving Holiday

Over 24 hours, total liquidations fell further back on Thursday. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $43.88 million versus $92.83 million on Thursday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also decreased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 15,589 versus 29,688 on Thursday morning. Liquidations were down over 12 and four hours and over one hour.

Crypto liquidations slide on Thanksgiving holiday.
Total Crypto Liquidations 251122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations fell from $48.10 million to $15.10 million, with four-hour liquidations down from $5.98 million to $1.33 million. One-hour liquidations were down from $3.58 million to $0.253 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market range-bound in afternoon session.
Total Market Cap 251122 Hourly Chart

ADA Price Prediction: Network Updates Bring Sub-$0.300 Back into View

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, ADA rose by 1.92%. Following a 2.63% gain on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.318.
  • FTX contagion risk continued to ease mid-week, delivering support, with talk of a Fed pivot providing further upside.
  • However, the technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, leaving sub-$0.300 in view.

On Wednesday, ADA rose by 1.92%. Following a 2.63% gain on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.318. Notably, ADA avoided sub-$0.300 for the first time in three sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.309. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.301, ADA rallied to a late high of $0.320. ADA briefly broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.319 before ending the day at $0.318.

On Wednesday, FTX contagion risk continued to ease, driving demand for ADA and the broader crypto market. Hopes of FTX assets and cash holdings cushioning the impact on creditors have been the key driver this week.

As a result, Cardano network updates took a back seat through the first half of the week.

From the US, the FOMC meeting minutes delivered a late push, with FOMC members talking about slowing the pace of rate hikes.

However, network updates weighed on buyer appetite this morning.

Stablecoin Developer Ardana Hits Pause

This morning, the all-on-one decentralized stablecoin ecosystem Ardana announced a halt to its stablecoin development. Ardana made the announcement on Twitter, saying,

“Unfortunately, due to recent developments with regard to funding and project timeline uncertainty, the Ardana project has had to come to a halt. Our code will remain open source for builders to continue our work going forward as they wish.”

Ardana added,

“Remaining funds and treasury balances etc will be held by Ardana Labs until another competent dev team in the community comes forward to continue our work.”

While one stablecoin project should have a limited impact on the influx of projects onto the Cardano network, the latest announcement raises the question of whether other projects will face funding issues, amongst other things, and announce the need to stop development. Such a trend would be ADA price negative.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.63% to $0.316. A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.321 before falling to a low of $0.315.

ADA sees red.
ADAUSD 241122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid a fall through the $0.316 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.322. A return to $0.320 would signal a breakout session. Bullish crypto market sentiment would support a breakout from R1.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.327 and $0.330 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.338.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.311 into play. However, barring a contagion-fueled sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.300. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.305 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.294.

ADA resistance levels in place above the pivot.
ADAUSD 241122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.321. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.321) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.322) to target and R2 ($0.327). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave sub-$0.300 in play.

EMAs remain bearish.
ADAUSD 241122 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – BNB Leads Bullish Top Ten Session

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten. Binance coin (BNB) led the way, with DOGE and ETH also on the move.
  • FTX contagion risk eased further on Wednesday, supporting another bullish session.
  • The crypto market cap rose by $24.6 billion to $788.3 billion.

It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten. BNB led the way, with ETH and DOGE also making moves. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the first time in three sessions.

The market focus remained on FTX contagion risk that continued to ease mid-week. Market reaction to the reports of FTX holding $1.24 billion in cash and market interest in FTX assets delivered further support on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was back in the news. A letter to employees hit the news wires, with the former CEO raising hopes of saving the business. In the letter, Bankman-Fried wrapped up by writing,

“Maybe there still is a chance to save the company. I believe that there are billions of dollars of genuine interest from new investors that could go to making customers whole. But I can’t promise you that anything will happen because it’s not my choice.”

The upside came despite lawmakers calling for an investigation into FTX and calls for greater regulatory oversight.

It was also a bullish session for the US equity markets, with the NASDAQ Composite Index rising by 0.99%. The FOMC meeting minutes delivered support, with the Fed signaling a monetary policy pivot.

However, US economic indicators disappointed, limiting the upside for the NASDAQ. There are no US stats to consider today, with the US markets closed for Thanksgiving.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 241122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Finds Further Support on Easing FTX Contagion Risk

It was a bullish Wednesday session. The crypto market fell to an early low of $759.2 billion before rising to a high of $794.9 billion.

Despite easing back from the day high, the crypto market rose by $24.6 billion (+3.22%) to end the day at $788.3 billion. The bullish session left the market cap down $185.5 billion for November.

Crypto market cap fell short of $800 bn.
Total Market Cap 241122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten.

BNB led the way, surging by 12.17%, with DOGE (+4.20%) and ETH (+3.99%) seeing solid gains.

ADA (+1.92%), BTC (+2.44%), MATIC (+1.41%), and XRP (+1.71%) trailed the front runners, however.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a bullish session.

Dash (DASH) and solana (SOL) led the way, rallying by 15.60% and 15.54%, respectively. Litecoin (LTC) was also a front-runner, rising by 11.84%.

Osmosis (OSMO) and trust wallet token (TWT) bucked the broader market trend, falling by 0.33% and 0.56%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Hold at Sub-$100m on Second Bullish Session

Over 24 hours, total liquidations eased further back on Wednesday. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $92.83 million versus $99.83 million on Wednesday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also decreased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 29,688 versus 34,317 on Wednesday morning. Liquidations were up over one hour, while down over 12 and four hours.

Crypto liquidations fall.
Total Crypto Liquidations 241122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations fell from $63.26 million to $48.10 million, with four-hour liquidations down from $7.43 million to $5.98 million. However, one-hour liquidations were up from $3.13 million to $3.58 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market finds strong late support.
Total Market Cap 241122 Hourly Chart

 

Mini Crypto Rally In a Bear Market

Market Picture

Bitcoin 4 hour chart

Bitcoin is adding 5.1% over the past 24 hours to $16.5K on Tuesday after updating two-year lows below $15,500. The rate rose in two powerful bursts, one at the start of trading in the US and the other at the beginning of trading in Asia. It’s unlikely we will see a start of a promising move on high volumes. So far, as a reflex, investors are trying to follow the stock indices, where risk appetite is increasing.

Ethereum 4 hour chart

Ethereum is adding 6.7% in 24 hours as traders are encouraged by its ability to defend the $1,000 level. Top altcoins are adding from 4.6% (Cardano) to 30% (Litecoin) over the last 24h. The latter is rising on signals that the SEC may recognise the coin as a digital commodity, like Bitcoin, rather than an asset like almost all other cryptocurrencies.

Despite the rebound, Bitcoin is still below the level it started the week, so we characterise the current move as a rebound rather than the beginning of a recovery. Bitcoin first needs to consolidate above $17K as a first reversal signal. More chances are that we are still seeing another mini rally in the bear market.

News Background

Binance will not invest in Genesis Trading amid the crypto lending platform’s search for $1bn in emergency funding, The Wall Street Journal reported. Without an additional cash infusion, Genesis Trading is potentially facing bankruptcy.

According to Glassnode, miners this year have sold the most significant volume of bitcoins since 2016. Capriole fund founder Charles Edwards noted that miner sales had soared 400% in the past three weeks. According to him, if BTC does not rise soon, we will see a massive bankruptcy of mining companies.

The crypto market has seen a noticeable drop in liquidity following the collapse of FTX, Kaiko noted. Trading volumes on crypto exchanges more than halved to $100bn every week.

The US House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture will hold a hearing on December 1 on the crypto-exchange FTX and measures to mitigate the impact of its collapse. The hearing is expected to feature remedial proposals from the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam.

by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich

ADA Price Prediction: A Return to $0.320 to Bring $0.350 into View

Key Insights:

  • On Tuesday, ADA rose by 2.63% to end the day at $0.312.
  • ADA found support from the broader market as FTX contagion fears eased in response to updates on FTX assets.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, leaving sub-$0.300 in view.

On Tuesday, ADA rose by 2.63%. Reversing a 2.56% loss from Monday, ADA ended the day at $0.312. Notably, ADA fell to sub-$0.300 for the third time since the collapse of FTX.

A choppy start to the day saw ADA fall to a mid-morning low of $0.298. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.295, ADA rallied to an early afternoon high of $0.316. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.313 before ending the day at $0.312.

FTX contagion news remained the key driver on Tuesday, delivering ADA and the broader market with much-needed support. However, Cardano network updates were also ADA-positive.

IOHK Updates and Easing FTX Contagion Deliver Support

Input Output HK (IOHK) announced the launch of Djed, Cardano’s over-collateralize algorithmic stablecoin. According to the Coti press release, Djed will go live on the Cardano mainnet in January 2023.

Total value locked figures were also price positive, with Cardano’s total value locked rising by 5.72% over 24 hours.

According to DeFiLlama, Cardano’s TVL stood at $53.85 million this morning. While up over 24 hours, the TVL is down 23.6% in November versus a market cap fall of 21.5% to $10.89 billion, suggesting further ADA losses. Investors will need to monitor TVL versus market cap divergence for price action.

ADA TVL on the rise.
TVL 231122

While the news was price positive, updates on FTX assets delivered crypto market support. News of FTX holding $1.24 billion in cash reserves and market interest in acquiring FTX assets eased contagion risk.

For the day ahead, we expect price movement to remain in the hands of FTX updates.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 1.28% to $0.316. A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.309 before rising to a high of $0.317.

ADA finds support.
ADAUSD 231122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid a fall through the $0.309 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.319. A return to the morning high of $0.317 would signal a breakout session. Bullish crypto market sentiment would support a breakout from R1.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.327 and $0.330 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.345.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.301 into play. However, barring a contagion-fueled sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.290. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.291 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.273.

ADA resistance levels in play above the pivot.
ADAUSD 231122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.323. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.319) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.323) and R2 ($0.327). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave sub-$0.300 in play.

EMAs remain bearish.
ADAUSD 231122 4-Hourly Chart