The 3 Things Investors Have to Know Today

The move eliminates a bit of uncertainty by maintaining the central bank leadership that investors are already familiar with, but it also eliminates the possibility of a more dovish Fed Governor Lael Brainard becoming the next Fed Chair.

Interest rate markets

The interest rate markets have reacted accordingly with odds of three interest rate hikes in 2022 now being the most popular bet. The 10-Year Treasury punched up beyond 1.60% and several of the bigger tech stocks took it on the chin as talks of higher interest rates circulate.

Higher interest rates have many inside the market thinking faster economic growth, where cyclical sectors like Financials tend to benefit. In other words, we might be seeing more “rotation” out of technology and into financials as we move towards year end.

There’s some buzz that tech stock valuations could see some compression if long-term interest rates increase, where as the financials would be a beneficiary. We can potentially see “tax-loss selling” .

Oil market

The oil market is also creating some rotation in capital as the U.S., China, Japan, India, and South Korea prepare for a coordinated release of supplies from strategic stockpiles. Not surprisingly, OPEC is not happy about this as the release of an estimated +35 million barrels from the U.S. alone could change the current supply-demand dynamics.

OPEC claims the release is unjustified and says it may need to reassess the amount of its monthly production increases. Some interpret this as a threat by OPEC to retaliate against global oil importers and not surprisingly is raising concerns about a global energy showdown that could send oil and other energy prices soaring even higher further out on the horizon. OPEC’s next production meeting is December 2.

Biden is expected to make an announcement in regard to the stockpile release today.

Data to watch today

In economic data, investors will be digesting preliminary reads from IHS Market for Manufacturing and Services PMI. Bulls are hoping to see more evidence that supply chain logjams are starting to clear after reports indicating that ports and shippers are starting to make some headway on the backlog along the West Coast. Data yesterday showed Existing Home Sales rose again in October, though total sales were down nearly -6% compared to last year.

At the same time, the median price for single-family homes rose +13.5% year-over-year to $360,800. It’s worth noting that at least part of the increase in the median sales price has been driven by a big jump in “luxury” home sales. By price category, sales of homes priced under $250,000 fell -24% year over year in October, while sales of homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million rose +25%, and sales of million-dollar plus homes were up +31%.

New Home Sales for October are due out on Wednesday followed by Pending Home Sales next Monday. On the earnings front, results are due today from American Eagle, Best Buy, Cracker Barrel, Dell, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, The Gap, HP, JM Smucker, Medtronic, and Nordstrom. Tomorrow we have John Deere reporting earnings.

Earnings to Watch in Holiday-Shortened Week: Zoom, Medtronic, Best Buy, Dollar Tree and Deere in Focus

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of November 22

Monday (November 22)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ZOOM

The San Jose, California-based communications technology company Zoom is expected to report its fiscal third-quarter earnings of $1.09 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 10% from $0.99 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The company, which provides video telephony and online chat services through a cloud-based peer-to-peer software platform, would post revenue growth of over 30% to $1.02 billion. Zoom will report 3Q FY22 earnings after market close on Monday, November 22.

“Investors lean cautious heading into FQ3 print given ongoing concerns around SMB churn, particularly as other WFH names have underperformed. View FQ4 print as having more favourable risk/reward, but given cautious positioning, could see outperformance if SMB churn is better than expected,” noted Meta Marshall, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Zoom has established its position as the leader in video conferencing, now a growth market. The company has a meaningful competitive moat built on more than just architecture. Position within customers makes an attractive opportunity to expand into the broader UC market. Early wins are encouraging. Opportunities to expand the platform remain. Manageable churn post-COVID as a move to hybrid work setups.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE NOVEMBER 22

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. ADR -$0.07
GRFS Grifolsbarcelona $0.29
JOBS 51job $4.45
GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia $0.68
ZM Zoom Video Communications $1.09
A Agilent $1.18
KEYS Keysight Technologies $1.64
URBN Urban Outfitters $0.83
BMA Banco Macro $1.22
TLK Telekomunikasi Indns Tbk Prshn Pp Pt $0.46

Tuesday (November 23)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: MEDTRONIC, BEST BUY, DOLLAR TREE

MEDTRONIC: The medical device company is expected to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.29 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 26% from $1.02 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The company has beaten earnings per share (EPS) estimates all times in the last four quarters with a surprise of over 13%. The Fridley, Minnesota-based medical company would post revenue growth of nearly 4% to $7.9 billion.

Medtronic (MDT) commentary and guide should act as a barometer for MedTech recovery through the balance of ’21 and into ’22. More muted recovery through October could incrementally pressure 2FQ, with the path to 9% y/y FY22 growth looking increasingly challenging in the face of recent sector headwinds,” noted Cecilia Furlong, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

BEST BUY: The Richfield, Minnesota consumer electronics retailer is expected to report its fiscal third-quarter earnings of $1.93 per share, which represents a year-over-year decline of over 6% from $2.06 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The consumer electronics retailer’s revenue would decline 2.5% to $11.56 billion down from $11.85 billion a year earlier. It is worth noting that in the last two years the company has delivered an earnings share price (EPS) at all times.

“Market looking for a 4-5% comp in Q3 vs cons at -1.5%. We see upside to 2H’21 numbers and expect a raised full-year guide as demand remains strong. That said, momentum is slowing and the category could shrink in ’22/’23. The stock is +15% in the last month, and a Q3 beat and raise seems priced in,” noted Simeon Gutman, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

DOLLAR TREE: The Chesapeake, Virginia-based company is expected to report earnings of $0.96 per share in the third quarter, down over 30% from $1.39 per share seen in the same period a year ago. But the discount variety stores that sells items for $1 or less would post revenue growth of nearly 4% to $6.4 billion.

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE NOVEMBER 23

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
CPG Compass Group £17.93
BYG Big Yellow £19.26
MDT Medtronic $1.29
BBY Best Buy $1.93
DLTR Dollar Tree $0.96
J Jacobs Engineering Group Inc $1.57
BURL Burlington Stores $1.24
SJM J.M. Smucker $2.04
DKS Dick’s Sporting Goods $2.03
PLAN Progressive Planet -$0.11
AEO American Eagle Outfitters $0.60
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch $0.65
DY Dycom Industries $0.75
JWN Nordstrom $0.56
NOAH Noah $2.95
VMW VMware $1.54
HPQ HP $0.88
GME GameStop -$0.51
CPB Campbell Soup $0.81
GPS Gap $0.50
SVT Severn Trent £49.79

Wednesday (November 24)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: DEERE

Deere & Company, the world’s largest maker of farm equipment, is expected to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $3.92 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 64% from $2.39 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The agricultural, construction and forestry equipment manufacturer would post revenue growth of more than 20% to $10.5 billion. It is worth noting that in the last two years the company has delivered an earnings share price (EPS) at all times.

“Despite positive secular demand fundamentals within both the Ag and Construction businesses we are lowering near-term estimates for Deere (DE) (F4Q21/F1Q22) to better reflect the impact from lost production in the US stemming from supplier bottlenecks and the labour strike,” noted Stephen Volkmann, equity analyst at Jefferies.

“We assume any lost production elongates the cycle, and we maintain our above Consensus estimates for 2023 noting additional upside from the infrastructure bill has yet to be factored into outlooks.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE NOVEMBER 24

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
UU United Utilities £25.21
JMAT Johnson Matthey £44.57
BVIC Britvic £31.37
DE Deere & Company $3.92
TCOM Trip.com Group Ltd $0.11
KC Kutcho Copper -$1.53

Thursday (November 25)

No major earnings are scheduled for release. The U.S. stock market will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday (November 26)

No major earnings are scheduled for release. The U.S. stock market will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Thanksgiving Week: Retailers’ Roaring Return?

Typically, Black Friday sales are accompanied by scenes of bargain-hunters camping outside popular retail outlets, braving the cold, only to bum-rush the store once it’s open. Sometimes, overly eager shoppers literally bust down doors and even get into fist fights over the best deals.

This year, things are set to be very different, due to the Covid-19 resurgence across America.

Instead of the usual frenzy at the physical stores, the stampede for bargains has been very apparent in the stock markets. Investors have made a beeline towards companies that had been beaten down by the pandemic, as they price in a return to in-person shopping, enabled by a Covid-19 vaccine.

Such a narrative has sent stocks in mall-based retailers surging on Monday:

  • Macy’s soared 15 percent (month-to-date gains: 67.63 percent). Macy had also reported a better-than-expected Q3 performance last week.

  • American Eagle Outfitters jumped 7.32 percent (month-to-date gains: 32.6 percent). The company is set to release its Q3 earnings after US markets close on Tuesday.

  • Gap advanced 6.93 percent (month-to-date gains: 33.98 percent). Gap is also set to unveil its quarterly results after US markets close on November 24th.

  • Urban Outfitters climbed 4.44 percent (month-to-date gains: 41.72 percent), before announcing after markets closed on Monday that its Q3 earnings-per-share exceeded estimates.

Overall, the S&P 1500 Apparel Retail Index has surged by nearly 86 percent since its March low, and is now a mere 2.14 percent away from its highest ever closing price, posted on February 20th this year. Still with the stocks of many of these so-called “nonessential retailers” now reaching overbought territory, perhaps a pullback can be expected in the near-term.

Pandemic-fueled bonanza

This wave of optimism has been fanned by a report from the National Retail Federation, which expects US holiday sales to post a 3.6 to 5.2 percent growth compared to 2019’s US$729.1 billion that was spent during the year-end shopping season. The industry’s leading trade group expects a “strong finish” to what has been a tumultuous 2020, given that Americans who were not able to spend on other items such as vacations and in-person entertainment (sporting events, movies, etc.) will instead pour between US$755.3 billion to US$766.7 billion into their year-end shopping spree. Such an outlook augurs well for the overall US retail sales figure, which could only muster a mere 0.3 percent growth in October compared to the month prior.

Retailers have to deliver results

However, execution risks remain. It remains to be seen how well these retailers can handle the incoming swarm of orders, be it for curbside pickup or direct shipping. Amazon has already braced itself by hiring over 25,000 more workers for its warehouses this year, while adding an extra 100,000 seasonal workers to handle the expected tsunami of online orders.

And the expected rebound in footfall isn’t assured. The pandemic may have left longer-lasting scars, potentially enforcing a lasting shift in shopping habits. Consumers may feel a lot more reluctant to return to in-person shopping and may have grown accustomed to buying items online. And with a spate of job losses in the US economy, with weekly jobless claims still over three times more than pre-pandemic levels while the unemployment rate remains close to seven percent, American consumers’ purchasing power may need more time to recover.

“Dark Winter” ahead?

Still, a fresh round of US fiscal stimulus by the incoming Biden administration could help dampen some of these downside risks on US retail activity. Otherwise, once the year-end shopping spree fades, these retailers might have been to brave a long, cold winter before they can welcome warm bodies back into their stores once more, to justify the eye-popping gains in their shares of late.

Written on 24/11/20 08:00 GMT by Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM

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