S&P 500 Is Under Pressure As Tech Stocks Are Moving Lower

Key Insights

  • The pullback in tech stocks is led by Apple, which is losing ground amid reports that protests in China hurt shipments of iPhone Pro. 
  • Energy stocks rebound as OPEC+ is reportedly ready to keep production at current levels. 
  • A move below the 20 EMA will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3920.

S&P 500 Settled Below The Support At 3960

S&P 500 declined towards the 3950 level as tech stocks remained under pressure. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite is down by 0.8% in today’s trading session.

Apple is down by 2% amid reports that iPhone Pro shipments may be lower than expected due to protests in China. Amazon  is also under pressure, and it looks that traders are concerned about the company’s performance in the fourth quarter.

Treasury yields are moving higher, which is bearish for growth stocks. The yield of 10-year Treasuries is trying to settle above the 3.75% level. In case this attempt is successful, it will move towards the 3.80% level, which will be bearish for S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.

Meanwhile, energy stocks rebound as WTI oil prices have settled above the $78 level. The rebound is led by Halliburton, APA Corporation, and Schlumberger.

From a big picture point of view, S&P 500 will not be able to develop sustainable upside momentum if leading tech stocks remain under pressure. In this light, traders should monitor the developments in Treasury markets as tech stocks are sensitive to changes in Treasury yields.

At this point, it looks that the yield of 10-year Treasuries may have found strong support in the 3.65% – 3.70% area, and traders must watch whether it will be able to gain momentum in the upcoming trading sessions.

S&P 500 Attempts To Settle Below The 20 EMA

S&P 500

S&P 500 managed to get below the support level at 3960 and is trying to settle below the 20 EMA at 3935. In case this attempt is successful, S&P 500 will move towards the next support level at 3920. A move below this level will open the way to the test of the support near the 50 EMA at 3885. If S&P 500 declines below the 50 EMA, it will head towards the support at 3860.

On the upside, the previous support at 3960 will serve as the first resistance level for S&P 500. A move above 3960 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance at 4000. If S&P 500 gets above 4000, it will head towards the next resistance at 4015.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Was Mostly Flat In Quiet Trading

Key Insights

  • Trading was calm amid low trading volume.  
  • NASDAQ Composite declined as Treasury yields moved higher. 
  • S&P 500 remains close to the important 4040 level which could be tested next week. 

Traders Were Not Ready For Big Moves In The Shortened Trading Session

S&P 500 was mostly flat in today’s trading session. Trading activity was low as many traders have preferred to enjoy a long weekend.

Retailers’ stocks have been in focus today as traders tried to evaluate Black Friday activity. Walmart, Costco, Target, Amazon have been mostly flat today as traders failed to find enough catalysts for big moves. That said, Ralph Lauren and PVH Corp. were the biggest gainers in S&P 500.

Activision Blizzard was among the biggest losers today amid worries about the fate of Microsoft‘s acquisition. According to recent reports, the FTC could file an antitrust suit to block the takeover. Microsoft stock was flat in today’s trading.

The recent pullback in the oil markets put some pressure on energy stocks in the last hour of trading. The pullback in WTI oil was caused by reports that indicated that EU delayed talks on the Russian oil price cap until next week. Problems in price cap negotiations are bearish for oil markets as they increase chances that Russian oil exports will not decline after December 5.

Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar have moved higher today. Interestingly, these moves did not put any pressure on the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite declined by 0.5% as tech stocks are more sensitive to changes in yields.

S&P 500 Is Stuck In The 4015 – 4040 Range

S&P 500

From a big picture point of view, nothing has changed in the last two days. S&P 500 managed to settle above the 4015 level and found itself in a range between the support at 4015 and the resistance at 4040.

S&P 500 needs to settle above the resistance at 4040 to continue its rebound. A move below the 4015 level may lead to a sell-off as some traders will rush to take profits after the recent rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

DOGE Bears Target a Return to Sub-$0.0700 on FTX Contagion

Key Insights:

  • Dogecoin (DOGE) and shiba inu coin (SHIB) joined the broader crypto market in the red on Sunday.
  • FTX contagion sent the crypto market into the red, with the latest news overshadowing network updates.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with the EMAs signaling further downside.

On Sunday, dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 9.10%. After ending the day flat on Saturday, DOGE ended the week down 9.32% to $0.0769. Notably, DOGE ended the day at sub-$0.0800 for the first time since November 9.

A bullish start to the day saw DOGE rise to an early morning high of $0.0857. Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0854, DOGE slid to a late low of $0.0764. DOGE slid through the day’s Major Support Levels to end the session at sub-$0.0800.

Shiba inu coin (SHIB) fell by 3.83% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.44% gain from Saturday, SHIB ended the week down 2.55% to $0.00000878.

Tracking the broader market, SHIB rose to an early morning high of $0.00000922. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00000926, SHIB slid to a late low of $0.00000866. SHIB fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000897 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.00000881 to end the day at sub-$0.00000880.

Network and Twitter news updates provided little price support, with contagion fear hitting investor sentiment.

FTX news updates reignited contagion fear following reports of FTX owing its top 50 creditors close to $3.1 billion. Alarmingly FTX owes $1.45 billion to the top ten creditors. The numbers raised the chances of more FTX-fueled bankruptcies.

DOGE saw sizeable losses, with uncertainty over Twitter and its crypto integration plans weighing.

However, SHIB updates provided a price cushion. Over the weekend, Shiba Inu News discussed a partnership between SHIB and Amazon Inc. (AMZN). Shiba Inu News said,

“BREAKING: A massive partnership between SHIB and Amazon is being worked on. It could happen as soon as December 1 if negotiations continue to go well.”

Shiba Inu News added,

“We’ll have more on the story soon. We were FIRST to break when Robinhood (HOOD) was listing SHIB.”

In a second tweet, Shiba Inu News said,

“MORE UPDATES: Our insider at Amazon is on their leadership team. They’ve been meeting internally since Q4 began. Oftentimes, crypto is a big topic of discussion. They’ve been impressed with the growth of SHIB and the total holders worldwide. Expect a partnership in Q1 2023.”

For today, barring news of Twitter resuming its crypto integration plans, FTX contagion will remain the focal point. The weekend news of FTX’s exposure to creditors will likely leave investors anxious until the identities of the creditors are available.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Action

At the time of writing, DOGE was down 2.21% to $0.0752. A bearish start to the day saw DOGE fall from an early high of $0.0771 to a low of $0.0735.

The First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0736 limited the downside.

DOGE on the back foot.
DOGEUSD 211122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

DOGE needs to move through the $0.0797 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0829 and the Sunday high of $0.0857. A return to $0.0800 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended afternoon breakout session, the bulls could take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.0890 and $0.0900. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.0983.

Failure to move through the pivot ($0.0797) would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0736 in play. However, barring another extended sell-off, DOGE should avoid sub-$0.0700. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.0704 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.0611.

DOGE support levels in play.
DOGEUSD 211122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs sent a bearish signal, with DOGE sitting below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.0857. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The price signals were bearish.

A move through R1 ($0.0829) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.0857) and R2 ($0.0890). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave DOGE under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
DOGEUSD 211122 4 Hourly Chart

Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) Price Action

At the time of writing, SHIB was down 2.28% to $0.00000858. A bearish start to the day saw SHIB fall from an early high of $0.00000879 to a low of $0.00000841.

SHIB fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000855 before finding support.

SHIB sees early red.
SHIBUSD 211122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

SHIB needs to move through the $0.00000889 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00000911 and the Sunday high of $0.00000922. A return to $0.00000920 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, any further contagion news would test buyer appetite.

In the case of an extended rally, SHIB would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.00000945 and resistance at $0.00000950. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.00001001.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000855 in play. Barring another extended sell-off, SHIB should avoid sub-$0.00000800. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.00000833 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.00000777.

SHIB support levels in play.
SHIBUSD 211122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs send a bearish signal, with SHIB sitting below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.00000928. This morning, the 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through R1 ($0.00000911) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.00000928) and R2 ($0.00000945). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave SHIB under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
SHIBUSD 211122 4 Hourly Chart

S&P 500 Declines Below 3960 As Energy Stocks Pull Back

Key Insights

  • Energy stocks reacted to the strong sell-off in oil markets. 
  • Tech stocks have also moved lower, pushing the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite below the 11,100 level. 
  • Some market segments are gaining ground today, indicating that the general market sentiment remains somewhat bullish. 

The Sell-Off In Oil Markets Hurts S&P 500

S&P 500 pulled back towards the 3940 level as tech and energy stocks moved lower. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite was down by 0.6%.

Energy stocks have been among the worst performers in the S&P 500 amid a strong pullback in oil markets. Diamondback Energy, EOG Resources, and Pioneer Natural Resources were down by 3-4% in today’s trading session.

Leading mega cap stocks like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla, have also found themselves under material pressure today, which was bearish for the S&P 500. NVIDIA was down by 3% as traders continued to adjust their positions after the recent earnings report.

Treasury yields moved higher today, and the yield of 2-year Treasuries managed to settle back above the 4.50% level. While stock traders shrugged off hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard, bond traders paid more attention to his words. In case Treasury yields move higher at a robust pace, S&P 500 will find itself under more pressure.

It should be noted that today’s pullback is not broad, and market segments like utilities, healthcare, and consumer defensive are moving higher, which means that the general sentiment remains bullish.

S&P 500 Tries To Settle Back Below The 3960 Level

S&P 500

S&P 500 failed to settle above the 3960 level and pulled back towards 3940. The nearest support level for S&P 500 is located at 3920. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. If S&P 500 declines below the support at 3920, it will move towards the next support level at 3885. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the support at 3865.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to settle back above 3960 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for S&P 500 is located at 4000. If S&P 500 gets above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 4015. A move above 4015 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 4040.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Layoffs in the Tech Industry on the Rise

Big Tech firms have dominated the US economy for the last decade. Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have all surpassed the trillion-dollar value threshold, making them some of the most valuable companies in modern history.

However, during the last 12 months, cracks have started to appear in that domination. Industry leaders started issuing cutback warnings, and companies like Google, Microsoft, and Facebook implemented hiring freezes on the down low. The companies also issued conflicting signals during the summer, as economic confidence fluctuated between positive and negative.

Even further alarm has been raised in recent weeks as a wave of earnings announcements revealed that even the most enduring corporations are having significant difficulty maintaining the revenue growth they were able to display over the last few years.

Right now in response, across Silicon Valley and around the world, big tech companies are reducing their workforces in an effort to save expenses in preparation for a worldwide economic downturn.

Most of them are struggling with the same issues.

They grew too fast, inflation is too high, interest rates are rising, clients are low on purchasing power, borrowing to expand is more expensive, the strong dollar is eroding their profit margins, too many people were hired during the pandemic, supply chains were disruptive, and now growing recession fears.

Some in the industry are likening the recent activity to the dot.com crash from 20-odd years ago. Many are at least calling it the end of an era. Regardless, there will be plenty of talent looking for jobs in the near future, and it could just be the beginning.

Let’s take a look at just a few company examples that have been making the news over the last weeks.

Twitter

Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing. Concerns about less moderating, fleeing advertisers, and threats to place the whole site behind a paywall followed the takeover, which was eventually achieved via a drawn-out litigation process.

Since then, it’s reportedly been losing millions of dollars a day and has been delisted from the New York Stock Exchange.

One week after taking control, on November 3rd, news sites began reporting that Musk wanted to lay off half of Twitter’s 7,500 employees.

Former Twitter CEO, CFO, director of legal policy and safety, and chief marketing officer were among those who were terminated from their jobs. Twitter’s senior privacy, security, and compliance executives have also just recently left the company.

Up to this point, Twitter has had to lay off approximately 3,700 of its staff.

Meta

This week, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that the company’s parent company, Meta, will be laying off 11,000 workers, or 13% of its worldwide workforce. This comes as the company this year so far has seen its share price plummet by nearly 70%.

In the third quarter, Meta’s revenue was down 4% year over year to $22.1 billion, while costs and expenditures increased 19%. In contrast to the previous year, operating income fell 46% to $5.66 billion. Net income for the three months of Q3 was $4.4 billion, down 52% from the previous year’s $9.8 billion.

Zuckerberg owned up to the layoffs in a statement released by Meta, saying that he built the company too big and too quickly. He stated that he was misled by the sudden boom brought on by the pandemic and that he expected it to continue long after the outbreak.

He responded to the trend by increasing his workforce significantly. Ad spending has been falling, and Apple’s privacy update has gone into effect, so the company’s income can’t sustain the same investment in expansion and employees it had planned for before.

He went on to say that Meta would be taking “steps to become a leaner and more efficient company” Among these measures include cutting down on team budgets, eliminating perks, giving up certain office leases, and “extending our hiring freeze through Q1.”

Meta weekly chart – Source: ActivTrader platform from ActivTrades

Amazon

With online sales slowing, Amazon has seen its share price drop by more than 40% this year. This week, it was reported by The New York Times that the business intends to shed 10,000 employees, or around 3% of its workforce.

According to its Q3 earnings, the company reported that it had actually fared quite well compared to many of its tech peers, but was still below market expectations. Net sales in the third quarter were $127.1 billion, up 19% year over year.

The company hired thousands of new staff during the boom times of the pandemic, but is now having to come to terms with slowing demand. Recently they implemented a hiring freeze while stopping some of its warehouse expansions. Additionally, the company had stopped working on concepts like a robot that would deliver packages personally.

Jeff Bezos, the founder and CEO of Amazon, issued a warning last month, stating that the US economy was telling people to “batten down the hatches.”

Amazon weekly chart – Source: Online trading platform from ActivTrades

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S&P 500 Climbed Above The 4000 Level

Key Insights

  • S&P 500 gained additional upside momentum at the start of the week. 
  • Traders bet that the Fed would be less hawkish at the next meeting. 
  • The market sentiment stays bullish, and traders ignore recession worries.

S&P 500 Starts The Week On A Strong Note

S&P 500 is trying to settle above the 4000 level as demand for stocks remains healthy despite stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite moved above the 11,300 level.

Consumer Inflation Expectations increased from 5.4% in September to 5.9% in October, compared to analyst forecast of 5.3%. Interestingly, this report had no impact on market dynamics.

Bulls have also ignored the NYT report on Amazon‘s plans to lay off about 10,000 workers. Amazon stock declined by about 1% during today’s trading session.

Most market segments have been moving higher today, although REITs were under pressure due to rising Treasury yields.

Meanwhile, comments from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who said that it would be appropriate to reduce the pace of rate hikes, provided additional support to the market.

From a big picture point of view, traders bet that the Fed will reduce the pace of its rate hikes and may even adjust its view on the “sufficiently restrictive” level of interest rates.

The dynamics of Fed policy expectations serve as the main driver for markets. Traders do not rush to take profits after the recent rally as they prepare for a less hawkish Fed.

S&P 500 Tests Resistance At 4000

S&P 500

S&P 500 managed to get above the 4000 level and is trying to get to the test of the next resistance at 4015. A move above 4015 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 4040. In case S&P 500 manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 4070.

On the support side, S&P 500 needs to settle back below 4000 to have a chance to gain downside momentum in the near term. The next support level for S&P 500 is located at 3960. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 3920. A successful test of the support at 3920 will open the way to the test of the next support at 3885.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Moves Towards 4000 As Risk Appetite Grows

Key Insights

  • The strong performance of energy and tech stocks pushed S&P 500 towards new highs. 
  • The weak U.S. dollar provided additional support to stocks.
  • A move above the 4000 level will push S&P 500 towards the resistance at 4015.

Stocks Are Moving Higher Ahead Of The Weekend

S&P 500 made an attempt to settle above 3990 but lost momentum and pulled back towards the 3970 level as traders decided to take some profits off the table. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite was up by roughly 1.5% as tech stocks continued to move higher.

It looks that the weak Consumer Sentiment report provided additional support to markets as the slowdown in consumer activity may lead to a less hawkish Fed.

Basic materials and energy stocks were moving higher today as the rebound in commodity markets continued. Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Devon Energy were among the biggest gainers in the energy segment.

Tech stocks continued to move higher, and Amazon managed to get to the psychologically important $100 level.

Treasury yields rebounded after yesterday’s pullback, but this rebound was not strong. In addition, the U.S. dollar found itself under strong pressure against a broad basket of currencies, which was bullish for S&P 500.

From a big picture point of view, the continuation of yesterday’s rally is somewhat surprising. Yesterday’s gains were big, and some traders may have preferred to take some profits off the table ahead of the weekend.

However, tech stocks enjoyed strong support in today’s trading sesssion, which indicated that risk appetite continued to grow.

S&P 500 Settled Above The 3960 Level

WTI Oil

S&P 500 managed to settle above the resistance at 3960 and is trying to get to the test of the next resistance level at 4000. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in the upcoming trading sessions.

In case S&P 500 gets above the 4000 level, it will head towards the resistance at 4015. A successful test of this level will push S&P 500 towards the resistance at 4040.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 3960 will serve as the first support level for S&P 500 In case S&P 500 settles back below this level, it will head towards the support at 3920. A move below 3920 will open the way to the test of the next support level, which is located at 3885.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Gains 4.5% As Traders Bet The Fed Will Raise Rates By 50 Bps In December

Key Insights

  • Weaker inflation report and dovish commentary from Fed members sparked rally in stocks.
  • Tech stocks enjoyed strong support as traders rushed to buy riskier assets. 
  • A move above 3920 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance at 3960.

Tech Stocks Rally As Inflation Rate Drops To 7.7%

S&P 500 is up by 4.5% as traders react to the U.S. inflation reports, which indicated that Inflation Rate declined from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite is up by 6%.

Inflation data provided huge support to global markets today. In addition, Fed members signaled Fed may slow rate hikes, which was also bullish for stocks.

Tech stocks are leading the rally. NVIDIA and Amazon are up by 12%. Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla are gaining 6%.

The rally is broad and all market segments are moving higher, which is not surprising as a less hawkish Fed policy would benefit the whole market. Consumer defensive stocks lag the market as traders focus on riskier plays.

Tomorrow, traders will focus on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which is expected to show that Consumer Sentiment declined from 59.9 in October to 59.5 in December. Given the strength of today’s rally, traders will likely demand a strong report to continue the rebound. If Consumer Sentiment misses expectations, traders will likely decide to take some profits off the table ahead of the weekend.

S&P 500

S&P 500 managed to settle above the 3900 level and is testing the resistance at 3920. RSI remains in the moderate territory despite the strong rally, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If S&P 500 settles above the 3920 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3960. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 4000. If S&P 500 gets above 4000, it will move towards the next resistance level at 4015.

On the support side, the nearest support level for S&P 500 is located at 3885. In case S&P 500 settles below this level, it will move towards the next support at 3835. The 50 EMA is located at 3815, so S&P 500 may get material support in the 3815 – 3835 area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Retreats From Session Highs As Energy Stocks Pull Back

Key Insights

  • Energy stocks are under pressure as WTI oil settled below the $89 level. 
  • Take-Two Interactive declined by 15% as traders reacted to the disappointing earnings report. 
  • A successful test of the support at 3805 will push S&P 500 towards the support level at 3760.

Energy Stocks Decline Amid A Sell-Off In Oil Markets

S&P 500 pulled back from session highs as energy stocks moved lower due to the sell-off in oil markets. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite has also found itself under material pressure in recent hours.

WTI oil has declined below the $89 level as traders remained disappointed that China did not relax its zero-COVID policy. This move was bearish for energy stocks.

It should be noted that leading mega cap stocks like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Tesla have been also moving lower today.

Meanwhile, basic materials stocks enjoyed strong support. Gold producer Newmont Corporation gained 6% as gold moved above the $1700 level. Copper producer Freeport-McMoRan was up by 2% as copper made an attempt to settle above the key $3.70 level.

Take-Two Interactive was down by 15% after the company reported revenue of $1.4 billion and a loss of $1.54 per share, missing analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue.

Traders will stay focused on the midterm elections, which may provide additional support to stocks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields are moving lower, which is bullish for S&P 500.

From a big picture point of view, the lack of market enthusiasm in the mega cap stocks remains a serious problem. Former leaders like Amazon and Tesla are trading at multi-month lows, which indicates that traders’ risk appetite remains limited.

At this point, the market is mostly supported by energy and basic materials stocks. If traders focus on recession risks and energy stocks gain downside momentum, S&P 500 may move closer to yearly lows.

S&P 500 Tests Support At 3805

S&P 500

S&P 500 is currently trying to settle below the 3805 level. In case this attempt is successful, S&P 500 will move towards the support at 3760. A move below this level will open the way to the test of the support at 3725. In case S&P 500 gets below the support at 3725, it will head towards the next support level at 3690.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to settle back above the 3805 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level is located at 3835. If S&P 500 manages to settle above this level, it will move towards the resistance at 3885.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Gains Ground As Exxon Mobil Tests All-Time Highs

Key Insights

  • S&P 500 gained upside momentum at the start of the week as leading energy stocks tested new highs. 
  • NASDAQ Composite was mostly flat in a choppy trading session, although some leading tech stocks were trying to rebound. 
  • A move above 3805 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance at 3835.

S&P 500 Moves Higher Ahead Of Midterm Elections

S&P 500 gained ground at the start of the week as energy stocks moved higher. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite was mostly flat in today’s trading session. Apple, Amazon, and Tesla remained under pressure, while Meta continued to rebound from yearly lows.

Today’s trading has been choppy as market participants were somewhat nervous ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

From a big picture point of view, the market is slowly rebounding after the recent sell-off. It remains to be seen whether election results will have a significant impact on market mood as Fed’s policy remains the key catalyst for S&P 500.

The relative weakness of tech stocks is alarming as it shows that the market is not ready for a sustainable rebound. In the last three months, energy stocks were the only group that managed to move higher. Other market segments have been under pressure.

If tech remains weak while energy stocks enjoy support, the choppy market behavior will continue. For example, leading oil companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron are testing all-time highs today, while Tesla is trading at multi-month lows.

S&P 500 Is Moving Towards The Resistance At 3805

S&P 500

S&P 500 settled above the resistance at 3760 and is moving towards the next resistance level at 3805. RSI remains in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If S&P 500 settles above the resistance at 3805, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3835. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 3885.

On the support side, the previous resistance level at 3760 will serve as the first support level for S&P 500. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will head towards the support at 3725. A move below the 3725 level will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3690.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Investors Await the Critical October Employment Report

Economy

Wall Street expects the jobs report to show a gain somewhere between +200,00 to +230,00, versus +263,000 in September with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5% previously.

Maybe more importantly, wage gains are expected to fall back to a year-over-year rate of +4.7% from +5% last month. A report that is roughly in-line with expectations may not do much to rally the bulls, many of which have moved to the sidelines after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday deflated hopes that the central bank was nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

The bulls are now struggling to recalibrate, with not much in the way of positive news to help the effort. The 2-year treasury yield is +4.7% and still climbing.

Keep in mind, the 2-year was at less than 0.5% a year ago. At the same time, we are now starting to hear of some big important companies laying people off and freezing on new hires.

Earnings

Apple has paused hiring for most major jobs, Coca-Cola is offering voluntary buyouts, e-commerce platform Stripe and ride-hailing service Lyft are the latest technology companies to lay off staff on Thursday, while Amazon said it would pause new hires in its corporate workforce, and Twitter is now set to lay off up to half of its staff today under new owner Elon Musk. Adding to the wall of worry has been little to no signs that inflation is retreating and a disappointing Q3 earnings season that has highlighted the ongoing headwinds that continue to erode corporate profits.

Bottom line, the concerns and uncertainties keep piling up and it’s becoming a much steeper hill for bulls to climb.

Midterm Elections

Turning to next week, the midterm elections on Tuesday could bring some added volatility to stock markets.

Historically, stocks tend to gain after midterms regardless of which party ends up controlling Washington, so perhaps the market will get a little bear bounce.

Importantly, Federal Reserve policy is not impacted by changes to party control in the House or Senate so that is not a factor.

If Republicans end up with control of both houses, some think oil and gas companies could be a beneficiary. The most recent odds makers currently give the Republicans a very strong chance of sweeping both the House and the Senate. It sounds like control of Washington may come down to the races in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

Data to Watch

The other major highlight next week is the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out on Thursday.

There is not much data on the calendar next week otherwise with just Consumer Credit on Monday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

On the earnings front, results are due from Activision Blizzard, BioNTech, Diamondback Energy, Palantir, and Ryanair on Monday; Bayer, CNH Industrial, Disney, Global Foundries, Lucid, and Occidental Petroleum on Tuesday; Adidas, D.R. Horton, Rivian, and Roblox on Wednesday; and AstraZeneca, NIO, and Siemens on Thursday.

S&P 500 Rebounds From Session Lows As Energy Stocks Rally

Key Insights

  • ConocoPhillips led the rally in energy stocks after raising the dividend and increasing the buyback. 
  • Mega cap stocks are moving lower as Treasury yields rise. 
  • A move below the support at 3725 will push S&P 500 towards the 3690 level.

Big Tech Stocks Remain Under Pressure

S&P 500 rebounded from session lows as traders reacted to the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data, which missed analyst expectations.

The rebound from session lows was led by energy stocks, which enjoyed strong support today. ConocoPhillips, APA Corporation, and Marathon Oil were up by 6-7% in today’s trading session. ConocoPhillips gained strong upside momentum after beating analyst estimates, raising the dividend, and increasing its share buyback plan by $20 billion.

Etsy gained 14% despite missing analyst estimates on earnings. The stock moved higher as the company presented an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter of this year.

Booking was up by 5% after reporting revenue of $6.05 billion and adjusted earnings of $53.03 per share, which exceeded analyst expectations.

Weak guidance put significant pressure on Fidelity National Information Services, which was down by 25% after the release of its quarterly report.

The leading tech stocks like Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon were down by 2-3%. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms tested new lows near $88.50.

The broad market will not be able to gain sustainable upside momentum if the mega cap stocks remain under pressure. Traders remain worried that higher interest rates will hurt the business of leading companies.

While the tech leaders looked invincible during the coronavirus crisis, higher interest rates, stronger dollar, and the slowdown of the world economy put significant pressure on their stocks. Traders should continue to monitor the dynamics of big tech stocks to find clues about the future direction of S&P 500.

S&P 500 Tried To Settle Below The 3700 Level

S&P 500

S&P 500 made an attempt to settle below the support at 3725 but lost momentum and rebounded towards the 3750 level. The nearest resistance for S&P 500 is located at 3760. If S&P 500 climbs above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 3805. A move above 3805 will open the way to the test of the resistance at 3835.

On the support side, S&P 500 needs to settle below the support level at 3725 to have a chance to gain additional downside momentum in the near term. The next support level is located at 3690. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will head towards the support at 3650.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Drops 2.5% As Powell Says It Is Premature To Pause Rate Hikes

Key Insights

  • Powell’s comments pushed stocks to weekly lows. 
  • The Fed remains ready to raise rates aggressively. 
  • A move below the support at 3760 will push S&P 500 towards the next support level at 3725.

S&P 500 Retreats As Powell Stays Hawkish

S&P 500 found itself under strong pressure and moved towards the 3760 level after Powell’s comments at the press conference. Nasdaq Composite was down by 3.36%.

Today, the Fed raised the interest rate by 75 basis points, in line with the analyst consensus. The original reaction to the FOMC statment was positive as the Fed noted that it would take into account the lags with which monetary policy affected economic activity and inflation. Traders interpreted this statement as a sign that Fed would move cautiously after raising rates aggressively.

However, Powell’s comments indicated that the Fed remained hawkish. The Fed Chair said that it was very premature to pause rate hikes. He also promised that the Fed would stay the course until the job was done.

Powell noted that over-tightening would not be a big problem as the Fed had the tools to provide significant support to the economy. At the same time, raising interest rates to an insufficiently restrictive level could lead to entrenched inflation and hurt the economy. The Fed Chair also noted that soft landing chances have narrowed.

Not surprisingly, these comments put significant pressure on the stock market. The sell-off was led by stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla, which were down by 3-5% in today’s trading session.

After the market close, traders focused on the Qualcomm report. The company reported revenue of $11.4 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.13 per share, mostly in line with the analyst estimates. The company cut its guidance and expects to report revenue of $9.2 billion – $10 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.25 – $2.45 per share in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023. The market did not like the guidance cut, and the stock was down by more than 5% in the post-market session.

S&P 500 Tests Support At 3760

S&P 500

S&P 500 is currently trying to settle below the support level at 3760. In case this attempt is successful, it will move towards the next support, which is located at 3725. A successful test of the support at 3725 will open the way to the test of the support at 3690.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to get back above the 3760 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level is located at 3805. If S&P 500 moves above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 3835.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Pulls Back As Amazon And Alphabet Test New Lows

Key Insights

  • The strong JOLTs Job Openings report put pressure on stocks. 
  • Amazon and Alphabet tested new lows, pushing S&P 500 towards the 3850 level. 
  • AMD is up by about 2% in the post-market session despite missing analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. 

Stocks Move Lower As Traders Prepare For Key Fed Decision

S&P 500 remained under pressure today as JOLTs Job Openings report exceeded expectations. Strong job market data is bearish for stocks as hopes for a less hawkish Fed fade.

In addition, it looks that traders wanted to take some profits off the table ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Decision, which will be released tomorrow.

The sell-off in Amazon and Alphabet shares put significant pressure on the S&P 500 today and pushed Nasdaq Composite towards the 10900 level. Meta managed to rebound from multi-year lows, but it remains to be seen whether the stock will be able to gain sustainable upside momentum in the upcoming trading sessions.

Meanwhile, energy and basic materials stocks moved higher amid a broad rebound in commodity markets. The leading copper producer Freeport-McMoran gained about 4%, while the oil services company Baker Hughes was up by more than 3%.

In the post-market session, traders will likely focus on AMD results. The company reported revenue of $5.57 billion and earnings of $0.67 per share, missing analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. In the fourth quarter, AMD expects to report revenue of $5.2 billion – $5.8 billion. While the revenue target for the next quarter implies no growth, the stock managed to gain upside momentum in the post-market session and moved above the $61 level.

Electronic Arts stock declined by 2% in the post-market session after the company released its quarterly report, which indicated that net bookings for the trailing twelve months was $7.4 billion, up by 4% on a year-over-year basis. The company noted that it expected a negative FX impact of about $200 million due to the strong U.S. dollar.

S&P 500 Faced Strong Resistance Near 3915

S&P 500

S&P 500 did not manage to settle above the resistance at 3915 and pulled back towards the 3860 level. The resistance at 3915 has been tested several times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength. In case S&P 500 manages to settle above this level, it will gain strong upside momentum and move towards the next resistance at 3960. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 4000.

On the support side, S&P 500 needs to settle below the support near the 50 EMA at 3835 to continue its pullback. The next support level is located at 3805. If S&P 500 gets below this level, it will move towards the next support at 3760.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Retreats As Tech Stocks Decline

Key Insights

  • Tech stocks pulled back as Treasury yields continued to rebound. 
  • Meta declined towards the $93 level as traders reacted to the major Instagram outage. 
  • Energy stocks managed to gain some ground today despite a broad pullback in oil markets and Biden’s plans to impose a windfall tax on energy companies. 

Meta Tests New Lows

S&P 500 settled near the 3870 level amid a broad pressure in the tech segment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite retreated towards the 11000 level. The sell-off was led by Meta, which lost 6% in today’s trading session.

The major Instagram outage served as the main negative catalyst for Meta shares today. However, it looks that investors remain disappointed by the recent earnings report. Earnings estimates are moving lower at a robust pace, which is bearish for Meta stock. Other leading tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon were down by 1-2% today.

The yield of 10-year Treasuries has moved towards the 4.10% level today as traders remained nervous ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Decision, which will be released on Wednesday. Higher Treasury yields and stronger dollar put additional pressure on stocks.

Interestingly, energy stocks managed to gain some ground today despite the pullback in oil markets and Biden’s plans to introduce a windfall tax on energy producers.

NXP Semiconductors was down 2% in the post-market session after releasing its quarterly report. The company reported revenue of $3.45 billion and GAAP earnings of $2.79 per share, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. NXP Semiconductors noted that its results were impacted by the weakening macro environment in its IoT business.

The company added that it remained cautious in the intermediate term due to the “uncertainties in the macro environment.” Traders also prefered to remain cautious, and the stock found itself under pressure in the post-market session.

It should be noted that semiconductor stocks have been mostly moving lower in recent months due to rising tensions between U.S. and China, which may hurt the semiconductor industry worldwide. It remains to be seen whether the situation improves in the upcoming months.

S&P 500 Settled Back Below The Support At 3885

S&P 500

S&P 500 faced resistance at 3915 and moved below the support at the 3885 level. In case S&P 500 settles below this level, it will head towards the next support level, which is located near the 50 EMA at 3835.

A move below the 50 EMA will open the way to the test of the support at 3805. In case S&P 500 declines below 3805, it will head towards the support at 3760.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to settle back above the 3885 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. If S&P 500 climbs back above 3885, it will head towards the resistance at 3915. A move above this level will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance level at 3960.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Tests Resistance At 3885 As Apple Rallies

Key Insights

  • Apple’s strong performance pushed S&P 500 to multi-week highs. 
  • Amazon moved towards the $100 level after presenting weak guidance. 
  • A successful test of the resistance at 3885 will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance level at 3915.

Tech Stocks Rally As Reports From Apple And Intel Boost Sentiment

S&P 500 gained strong upside momentum and moved towards the 3885 level as Apple shares enjoyed strong support after the release of the company’s quarterly report.

Apple reported revenue of $90.1 billion and earnings of $1.29 per share, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. It looks that traders waited for an excuse to buy Apple stock as the company’s results were not too strong but the stock gained 8%.

Apple’s results offset the negative impact of the sell-off in Amazon shares, which were down by 8%. It should be noted that Amazon stock was down by as much as 19% during yesterday’s post-market session, so Apple’s results provided material support to general sentiment in the tech segment.

Intel  stock also rallied after the release of the quarterly report. In Intel’s case, traders cheered job-cut plans.

While tech stocks enjoyed broad support, energy stocks like Schlumberger, Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess pulled back as oil markets declined amid worries about coronavirus lockdowns in China. Meanwhile, the leading copper producer Freeport-McMoran was down by 2% as copper settled below the $3.45 level.

Interestingly, stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields did not put any pressure on S&P 500 today. Apple’s solid report boosted traders’ risk appetite, and market participants rushed to buy stocks from various industries.

S&P 500 Tests Multi-Week Highs

S&P 500

Currently, S&P 500 is trying to settle above the resistance level at 3885. RSI remains in the moderate territory, and there is enough room to gain additional upside momentum in the upcoming trading sessions.

In case S&P 500 settles above the 3885 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 3915. A move above 3915 will open the way to the test of the resistance at 3960. In case S&P 500 climbs above 3960, it will move towards the next resistance at 4000.

On the support side, the previous resistance level at 3835 will serve as the first support level for S&P 500. If S&P 500 manages to settle below this level, it will move towards the next support at 3805. A move below the support at 3805 will push S&P 500 towards the support at the 20 EMA at 3760.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Intel Rallies As Traders Cheer Job-Cut Plans

Key Insights

  • Intel gained 10% after the release of a better-than-expected earnings report. 
  • Traders cheered Intel’s plans for aggressive cost cuts. 
  • The market was able to shrug off the weak guidance for the next quarter. 

Intel Shares Test Multi-Week Highs

Intel gained 10% in today’s trading session as traders cheered the company’s job cut plans.

Intel announced revenue of $15.3 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.59 per share, meeting analyst estimates on revenue and beating them on earnings.

Intel stock declined from the highs near $68 in 2021 to the recent lows near $25, so market’s expectations were modest ahead of the report.

The company revised its full-year revenue guidance to $63 billion – $64 billion to reflect the continued macroeconomic headwinds. In the fourth quarter, Intel plans to report revenue of $14 – $15 billion, so the company’s revenue would decline compared to third-quarter levels.

Inteд’s capex forecast was cut from $27 billion to $25 billion as Intel remained focused on cutting costs. In the longer term, Intel expects to deliver $8 billion – $10 billion in annual savings by the end of 2025. The company will focus on optimizing its business and controlling costs.

Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO, noted: “To position ourselves for this business cycle, we are aggressively addressing costs and driving efficiencies across the business to accelerate our IDM 2.0 flywheel for the digital future.”

The Market Is Ready To Buy Cheap Tech Stocks

The market sentiment in the tech segment has been weak in recent weeks. Traders’ reaction to Intel’s report shows that some market participants are ready to buy beaten stocks in the tech segment if companies present a viable plan for the future.

Intel is trading at levels that were last seen back in 2016, and it’s not surprising to see that some traders are ready to bet on a successful turnaround.

In the near term, traders will likely stay focused on general sentiment in the tech segment. Big names like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta have been under serious pressure in recent months, and it remains to be seen whether the tech segment will gain sustainable upside momentum at a time when the Fed is raising rates aggressively.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Key Oil Company And PCE Prices Index To Set a Tone Today

Earnings Season

Wall Street is again digesting somewhat disappointing big tech earnings, this time from Amazon and Apple. While Amazon’s Q3 earnings and sales were in line with Wall Street expectations, the company disappointed with less-than-expected growth in its Amazon Web Services cloud business.

Maybe more importantly, Amazon’s projected sales growth for Q4 came in far below analyst expectations. Apple’s Q3 earnings and revenue results topped analyst estimates but Wall Street is worried about slower growth in its business services category as well as iPhone sales, both of which missed estimates.

It’s worth noting that Apple CEO Time Cook said supply issues had no significant impact on the company’s Q3 results, a turnaround from recent quarters and a welcome sign that supply chain headwinds are mostly in the rearview.

Analysts that are bearish on the tech sector believe growth will continue to deteriorate, however, because a lot of demand for big tech products and services was pulled forward by the pandemic. Meaning the loss of pandemic-fueled demand and stimulus dollars will now leave a “demand vacuum” that could weigh on the sector in the quarters ahead.

Today, big oil giants Exxon and Chevron are expected to post outstanding Q3 results, though weaker than Q2 due to the retreat in oil prices. Still, both companies are expected to deliver their second-highest profits ever, behind only Q2 2022.

There is some concern on Wall Street that big profits might attract unwelcome attention, however. The UK has slapped windfall taxes on energy companies and the EU is working on a similar plan, which has raised fears the US might follow suit.

AbbVie, Colgate Palmolive, Mobil, and NextEra Energy also report results today. On the data front, investors have all eyes on the PCE Prices Index due out this morning and expected to show year-over-year gains for both headline and “core” inflation (strips out food and energy).

Data to Watch

Wall Street is looking for a headline PCE Prices read of +6.3%, and a “core” rate of +5.2%. If the numbers come in lower than expected, that will obviously boost the bulls’ belief that the Federal Reserve is preparing to ease up on its rate hikes.

At its two-day meeting next week on November 1-2, the Fed is widely expected to lift its benchmark rate by +75-basis points. The big debate is what the Fed will do in December and bulls have high hopes that officials will signal a less aggressive hike of perhaps 50-basis points.

The European Central Bank delivered its second straight 75 basis point interest rate hike yesterday. However, many are interpreting ECB President Christine Lagarde’s follow-up comments as “dovish” because she put a lot of stress on the importance of upcoming data which many expect will show the EU economy is in or near recession.

Next week, the economic data highlight will be the October Employment Situation on Friday.

Inflation reads from ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday and ISM Non-Manufacturing on Thursday will also be in the spotlight. Q3 earnings continue next week with a wide range of sectors represented. Key results include Aflac, NXP Semiconductors, and Stryker on Monday; Advanced Micro Devices, Airbnb, BP, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Phillips 66, and Uber on Tuesday; Allstate, CVS, Humana, Novo Nordisk, Nutrien, Qualcomm, Trane, and Yum Brands on Wednesday; Amgen, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Corteva, Moderna, Monster Beverage, Nintendo, PayPal, Starbucks, and Zoetis on Thursday; and Berkshire Hathaway, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, and Hershey on Friday.

A BTC Return to $21,000 and a Bullish ETH Session in the Hands of US Stats

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) hit reverse on Thursday, ending a mini two-day winning streak that saw BTC return to $21,000 for the first time since September 13.
  • US economic indicators and corporate earnings weighed on riskier assets, with BTC and ETH tracking the NASDAQ into the red.
  • However, the technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to the respective current-week highs.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 2.35%. Partially reversing a 3.41% rally from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $20,301. Notably, BTC wrapped up the day at $20,000 for the third time since October 5 while falling short of $21,000.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $20,892. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,182, BTC slid to a late low of $20,191. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,237. However, steering clear of sub-$20,000, BTC partially recovered to end the day at $20,301.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 3.32% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 7.26% rally from Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,514.

After a range-bound morning, ETH rose to a mid-day high of $1,580. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,622, ETH slid to a late low of $1,503. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,484, ETH ended the day at $1,514.

On Thursday, US economic indicators and corporate earnings weighed on riskier assets. Better-than-expected US GDP numbers for Q3 initially delivered support before risk aversion hit. The pickup in economic activity could give the Fed more wriggle room to front-load interest rates before the New Year.

US corporate earnings added to the market angst. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta (META) delivered gloomy outlooks to send the NASDAQ into the red. The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.63% on Thursday.

META tumbled by 24.56% in response, with AMZN sliding by 12.73% after hours.

Following the busy Thursday session, US economic indicators will be in the spotlight again. Inflation, personal spending, and consumer sentiment could influence market sentiment toward a December Fed pivot.

This morning, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of November and December rate hikes at 84.8% and 38.0%, respectively. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 45.6%.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was flat at $20,302. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $20,166 before rising to a high of $20,343.

BTC on the defensive early on.
BTCUSD 281022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $20,461 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,732 and the Thursday high of $20,892. A BTC return to $20,500 would signal a possible breakout session. However, US economic indicators and corporate earnings need to be crypto-friendly to support a bullish session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,162 and $21,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,863.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,031 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,760. Later today, BTC movement will be US data dependent.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $19,059.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 281022 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,880.

After Wednesday’s bullish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA crossing through the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

A 100-day EMA break clear from the 200-day EMA would signal a breakout session. However, a BTC fall through S1 ($20,031) would bring the 50-day EMA ($19,880) and S2 ($19,760) into view.

EMAs bullish.
BTCUSD 281022 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 0.03% to $1,515. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,496 before rising to a high of $1,526.

ETH finds early support.
ETHUSD 281022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,532 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,562 and the Thursday high of $1,580. An ETH return to $1,550 would signal a bullish session. However, US stats and corporate earnings would need to be ETH-friendly to give the bulls a run at the Thursday high.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,609 would likely cap the upside. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,686.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,485 in play. However, barring another crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,455.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,378.

ETH support levels in play below the pivot.
ETHUSD 281022 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,422. The 50-day EMA widened from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA crossing through the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA would support a move through R1 ($1,562) to target $1,600. However, a risk-off fueled ETH sell-off through S1 ($1,485) and S2 ($1,455) would bring the 50-day EMA ($1,422) into view.

EMAs bullish.
ETHUSD 281022 4 Hourly Chart

BTC Fear & Greed Index Eases to 30/100 as BTC Falls Short of $21,000

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slid by 2.35% to end the day at $20,301. Notably, BTC fell short of $21,000 while wrapping up the day at $20,000 for the third consecutive session.
  • US economic indicators and corporate earnings left BTC and the broader crypto market in negative territory.
  • The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index responded to the bearish session, falling from 32/100 to 30/100.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 2.35%. Partially reversing a 3.41% rally from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $20,301. Notably, BTC wrapped up the day at $20,000 for the third time since October 5 while falling short of $21,000.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $20,892. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,182, BTC slid to a late low of $20,191. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,237. However, steering clear of sub-$20,000, BTC partially recovered to end the day at $20,301.

After a quiet morning session, US economic indicators and corporate earnings delivered a choppy afternoon session.

In Q3, the US economy expanded by 2.6% versus the 0.6% contraction in Q2. Economists forecast 2.4% growth. The better-than-expected headline figure delivered initial support before a reversal.

However, US corporate earnings had a more material impact. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta (META) delivered gloomy outlooks to send BTC and the NASDAQ into the red. The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.63% on Thursday.

Later today, US economic indicators will be back in the spotlight. Inflation, personal spending, and consumer sentiment will give the markets further clues on what to expect from the Fed. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 mini was down 85 points.

NASDAQ correlation.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 281022 Daily Chart

The Fear & Greed Index Slips to 30/100 as BTC Falls Short of $21,000

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 32/100 to 30/100. Despite the decline, the Index remained within the Fear zone. US corporate earnings and Fed policy uncertainty contributed to the modest decline.

However, the Index avoided sub-30/100, with the markets still betting on a December Fed pivot.

Going into the Friday session, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of November and December rate hikes at 88.5% and 34.1%, respectively. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 75.3%.

The Index will need to target 40/100 and the neutral zone to support a BTC bearish trend reversal. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Fear & Greed Index avoids sub-30/100
Fear & Greed 281022

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.14% to $20,330. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $20,166 before rising to a high of $20,339.

BTC finds early support.
BTCUSD 281022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $20,461 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,732 and the Thursday high of $20,892. A BTC return to $20,500 would signal a possible breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,162 and $21,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,863.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,031 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,760. Later today, BTC movement will be US data dependent, however.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $19,059.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 281022 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,864.

After Wednesday’s bullish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would signal another breakout session. However, a BTC fall through S1 ($20,031) would bring the 50-day EMA ($19,864) and S2 ($19,760) into view.

EMAs bullish.
BTCUSD 281022 4 Hourly Chart