Indices and Pairs with JPY Start a New Week with an Upswing

Indices continue the reversal initiated in the last week.

SP500 broke a crucial horizontal support on the 4150 points.

Nasdaq bounced off of the 50% Fibonacci and is aiming the 38,2%.

DAX escaped from the symmetric triangle pattern and is aiming crucial resistance on the 14850 points.

USDJPY tries to escape from the symmetric triangle as well.

USDCAD continues the drop influenced by the giant Head and Shoulders pattern.

GBPCAD tries to break the lower line of the flag in order to start a new sell signal.

GBPAUD is doing pretty much the same thing but breaking the horizontal support.

AUDCHF comes back inside of the rectangle. A false bearish breakout can be a good buy signal.

GBPJPY tries to end the correction and is putting heavy pressure on resistances.

Traders Edge: Market Briefing for 30.05.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Birth of a New Safe Haven Currency

The ongoing Russian invasion and the risk off mode associated with it, have given birth to a new safe haven currency – the Australian Dollar (and the New Zealand Dollar as well).

One thing is that the Australian Dollar is a commodity currency and we all know that commodities are currently flying through the roof. Another thing is that Australia is very far from any potential conflict. And in this case, we can see a real pattern. The Euro is much weaker than the GBP, the German stock exchange is weaker than the American one and well, the Polish currency and stock exchange are pretty much being wrecked.

Quite surprisingly, AUD is even stronger than CHF – the real benchmark for safe havens! So, in today’s analysis we’re taking a look at AUDCHF.

Last week, the pair managed to create a major, long-term buy signal. The buy signal, comes from the fact that the price broke the upper line of the flag formation (blue). The flag was a big bearish correction of a post-covid recovery.

The new week also starts on the front foot. The price is currently breaking the 23.6% Fibonacci, which actually opens the way towards the top from February 2021. As for the supports, we have plenty of them. First of all, the upper line of the flag, then we have one on the 0.667 and then, the red mid-term up trendline, which is supporting the price in 2022.

With all that, the sentiment on AUDCHF is definitely positive and a bearish reversal would be a rather huge surprise.

GBP/USD and NZD/USD Rise From the Death!

USD loses traction and allows other currencies to catch some breath. On many pairs, this initial reversal is happening in very interesting places.

GBPUSD is bouncing from the lower line of the flag and the 38,2% Fibonacci with a beautiful inverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is already broken, so the buy signal is ON.

A similar situation can be seen on the NZDUSD but here, instead of the iH&S, we have the triple bottom formation.

EURUSD is bouncing from the lower line of the pennant.

GBPJPY defends a crucial horizontal support and aims higher.

USDCHF still waits for the breakout from the symmetric triangle pattern. Currently we are in the middle.

AUDCHF aims higher after the price makes a V-shaped reversal after touching the lower line of the flag.

CHFJPY continues another week inside of the rectangle, between the 23,6% and 38,2% Fibonacci.

CADCHF is attacking a long-term horizontal support. A breakout can bring us a proper sell signal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/CHF Shoulder Head Shoulder Formation For Bearish Pattern

AUD/CHF Technical Analysis

  • Bears are still in control
  • Bearish SHS pattern
  • Trend line break
  • Move down is imminent

  1. Left shoulder
  2. Head
  3. Right shoulder
  4. Trend line break & Pinbar
  5. Target

The AUD/CHF is still bearish. Predominant trend in the AUD is bearish. Technical and Fundamentals are aligned as RBA last statement was bearish. The CHF is getting stronger and if CHF/JPY gets higher (which it should concerning that we have a pinbar on daily) then the AUD/CHF drop will be even more exaggerated. Momentum is bearish and a close below 0.6690 should add more sellers in the equation. We can also spot bearish shoulder head shoulder formation which adds to the confluence. The target is M L5 0.6626.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

EUR/USD, Cable and Silver Bounce From Crucial Horizontal Supports

SP500 opens higher but Asian and European sessions bring only sour disappointment.

Dax is doing slightly better but we’re still below a major mid-term down trendline.

Nasdaq is breaking the lower line of the wedge, which is actually pretty negative.

GBPUSD is defending crucial long-term horizontal support.

USDJPY continues the upswing after the price broke the upper line of the symmetric triangle pattern.

AUDCHF is trying to create the right shoulder of the iH&S formation.

CADJPY is with a proper buy signal, after the price breaks the neckline and the mid-term down trendline.

GBPJPY is very close to a buy signal as the price is currently breaking the dynamic resistance as we speak.

USDMXN is very close to a major trading signal as we are almost at the end of the symmetric triangle pattern.

Silver is trying to create a double bottom formation on a crucial horizontal support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD Gains Traction Ahead of the NFP

American Traders did what they love to do. They bought the dip and made another V-shape reversal. SP500 and Dow Jones are back above the major supports with handsome buy signals.

The Nasdaq on the other hand is still struggling. Here, a further drop is very probable.

The DAX is flirting with all-time-highs, again

Gold drops after a brilliant head and shoulders pattern. The drop stopped on a mid-term up trendline. This can be a good place to stop this correction.

The EURUSD drops ahead of the NFP data.

This day is important for the USDCAD as we do have labor market data from Canada and the US. The ‘loonie’ tries to bounce from a major long-term horizontal support.

The AUDCHF doing everything to defend the 38,2% Fibo.

The AUDUSD breaks the neckline of the H&S formation and the lower line of the triangle is possibly bearish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices and Commodities Continue the Bull Run

 

The new week – with the US market starting on Tuesday due to Labor Day – is starting on the front foot with all the major indices climbing significantly higher.

The DAX broke the upper line of the pennant formation and is heading north with high momentum.

Gold is still climbing inside a big channel up formation. The price will most probably hit the 1960 USD/oz pretty soon.

Brent Oil is breaking the psychological barrier of 70 USD/bbl at the time of writing.

The EURUSD has fully recovered after a false bearish breakout of the mid-term up trendline which started on Friday.

The USDCAD broke the lower line of the pennant formation and all this is happening on a major, long-term support.

The AUDCHF tried to break the short-term horizontal resistance in order to create a bigger bounce from the 38,2% Fibonacci.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices In a Correction Mode but Still Bullish in The Long-Term

 

American indices take a small break after the buying marathon which started the previous week.

DAX bounces from the 38,2% Fibo and the lower line of the flag. That is bullish but the false breakout from Monday can be a little bit worrying.

Gold breaks the upper line of the pennant and climbs higher to test the upper line of the channel up formation. The life of a gold bull seems ok at the moment.

The same with oil bulls. Today, we do have a small correction but the main sentiment is definitely positive.

The EURUSD extends loses after the double top formation.

The AUDCHF is still above a major support but it doesn’t look like a bounce, more like a correction and preparation for another leg down.

The NZDCAD climbs higher after the false bearish breakout.

The EURCAD makes a double top formation on the 38,2% Fibonacci. That is one of the best price action setups there is. A bearish setup of course

The GBPJPY is waiting for a breakout from the symmetric triangle pattern. That can turn into an awesome trade pretty soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices Continue the Rise From the Last Week

 

Indices start this week on the front foot. The global bounce from the end of the last week seems secure.

Gold waiting for a breakout inside of the pennant formation.

Brent Oil continuing the bounce from a crucial horizontal support on the 65 USD/oz.

The EURUSD pair cannot decide which direction it is heading, having strong bullish and bearish days, one after another.

The AUDCHF pair is testing 38,2% Fibonacci. First buyers are there!

The NZDCAD pair is coming back above the lower line of the descending triangle pattern. That is potentially a start of a false breakout pattern and a legitimate buy signal.

The GBPJPY pair tests the neckline of a nice Head and Shoulders formation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Major Indices Bounce From Crucial Supports, Not All of Them Though

 

SP500 is doing what it always does – V shape reversal and a rapid bounce from the major support (in this case, long-term up trendline).

Dow Jones is in a similar situation; surge after contact with an uptrend line sorts out the situation.

Nasdaq on the other hand is having some issues, here the price broke the uptrend line, so the buy signal is no longer here.

DAX with a sweet-looking hammer on the daily chart yesterday. We’re still inside of the wedge, with a bright outlook for tomorrow

Nikkei with a similar situation to Nasdaq – the major uptrend line got broken. What’s more, we broke the lower line of the triangle and the support on the 28300, which is negative

Brent Oil bounces from the lower line of the channel up formation

The USDCAD is on a key long-term horizontal support. A bounce here wouldn’t be a surprise

The AUDCHF breaks the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern, that’s bearish

The GBPJPY currently creates the right shoulder of the H&S pattern. Here a breakout of the neckline would a mid-term sell signal

American Indices Moving in Opposite Directions

American Indices are currently moving in opposite directions. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is going down, aiming for the long-term up trendline while the old-school Dow Jones flirts with all-time highs after the price escaped from the pennant formation.

The German Dax is trading inside a flag formation, which is promoting a long-term breakout to the upside.

Gold is aiming higher after a successful bounce from the 1760 USD/oz support.

The USDCAD broke the lower line of the channel down formation, which should be considered an extreme weakness.

The AUDCHF tested the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. A breakout to the downside is very probable.

The ZARJPY shot higher after a false bearish breakout from the Head and Shoulders formation.

The EURPLN is aiming higher after a very handsome bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

The USDHUF dropped like a rock after the price created a shooting star on the daily chart, which bounced from a combination of dynamic and horizontal resistances.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Terrible Month for USD but Maybe the Last Day Will Be Better

Gold attacked a crucial support again but this time with a very sharp fall.

Brent oil initiated a bearish correction.

The Dow Jones is still in a pennant waiting for a breakout.

The DAX is still in a rectangle pattern also patiently waiting for a direction.

The EURUSD has started a bearish correction.

The Canadian Dollar is still going stronger.

The EURAUD is in a symmetric triangle waiting for a breakout.

The AUDCHF is in a similar situation.

The EURNZD is also waiting to end the sideways trend but in this case, the price is locked inside of a rectangle.

The AUDJPY defends a crucial support level after the bullish breakout from the triangle. It’s an interesting opportunity in terms of risk to reward ratio.

The ZARJPY defends the neckline of the head and shoulders formation.

The USDHUF is in a long-term sell signal after the price drops below the major support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weekly Round Up – February 21st, 2021

AUD/USD broke its long standing and much written line at 0.7821 and traded 57 pips to 0.7877. Above 0.7821, AUD/USD ranges between 0.7821 to the 10 year average at 0.8305 or 484 pips. Below 0.7821, AUD/USD trades 0.7821 to 0.7308 or 513 pips. Below 0.7821 exists 0.7605.

DXY last week maintained its 148 pip range between 89.95 to 91.43. Above 91.43 next targets 92.78 in a 135 pip range.

GBP as written in the last post maintains deep overbought status across all GBP pairs except GBP/NZD. Watch 1.9136 this week for best moves.

EUR/USD opens in fairly perfect neutrality however ranges continue to compress. Problem pair EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs maintain deeply overbought status for week 4. EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD open the week massive oversold. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD will provide the best moves.

Stand clear EUR/CHF as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF will provide better movements.

NZD/USD 0.7267 then 0.7356 Vs 0.7267 and 0.7990. NZD/CAD is overbought while NZD/JPY heading into week 4 maintains richter scale overbought status.

Overall, NZD/USD traded 200 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.7300’s for the past 2 months and provided support to GBP and AUD to allow both to move higher. Explains the divergence seen in EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD this week.

USD/JPY watch 104.97 and USD/CAD 1.2587 Vs 1.2826.

 

 

Indices in Europe Start This Week With a Correction

American Indices continue the buying fiesta.

European indices, on the other hand, undergo a bearish correction.

Gold tries to create a right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders formation.

EURUSD pair continue the correction inside a flag formation.

GBPUSD pair drop below 1.37 again.

AUDCHF with a triple top formation but so far without a proper sell signal.

GBPJPY bounces from the 142.2 again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices Try to Catch a Breath. Great Session for USD

Almost all indices collapse and aim for long-term lows.

SP500 is testing the 23,6% Fibonacci.

DAX is very close to reach the 38,2% Fibonacci.

FTSE breaks the lower line of the wedge formation.

CAC reaches crucial support from the first half of the year.

EURUSD breaks the lower line of the flag formation.

EURAUD eventually bounces from the upper line of the sideways trend.

EURGBP in a flag but with inclinations for an upswing.

AUDCHF goes lower after the bounce from a crucial resistance.

WTI Oil breaks the lower line of the symmetric triangle.

Gold goes lower after the escape from the mid-term pennant.

USDPLN breaks the neckline of the inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, it looks bullish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stock Traders Lick the Wounds Ahead of the NFP Data

DAX drops like a rock but stops on the major up trendline, where the price tries to initiate a reversal

CAC creates a false breakout pattern from the symmetric triangle

Nasdaq and SP500 tumble but are still above all major supports

Brent in the negative territory after escaping from the wedge pattern

Gold tries to defend major long-term up trendline

Dollar Index tries to create a triple bottom formation

USDCAD below major resistance, waiting for crucial job data

AUDCHF and AUDNZD test important horizontal support

EURPLN finally escapes from the sideways trend and breaks major long-term down trendline

Is There A Strategy To Make 20 PIPs Per Day?

As far as strategies goes, there’s so many different strategies out there, in terms of exit, and, entries and exits, in terms of a technical strategy.

The way that we find gives us the highest probability opportunity to make pips from the market, every day, is just by following the daily sentiment. Now, whether that’ll give you five pips for that day, whether it’ll give you 10 pips, 20 pips, 100 pips, it really does depend on the type of sentiment. It really does depend on the type of trade that you take. Also, the underlying volatility of the market.

So, looking at something like the Aussie-Yen. Normally, in a day trade, like the Aussie-Yen, due to much lower volatility ranges, we would expect to make anything, from, or would be happy to make anything, from, let’s say 10 to 30 pips, on a normal, standard day trade like this one, today.

But, because we’ve seen all those massive moves in the market, traded recently, due to the, basically, the run up to the recession, and those big moves we saw in equities, if we just look at this range for today, we can see, it’s almost a 60 per branch to the downside, which is quite a lot for just a standard day trade.

So, it really does depend on quite a couple of factors.

There isn’t a strategy, especially technically speaking, that can guarantee you any type of, you know, set pip range per day. 10, 20, 30 pips, etc. A trader out there that tells you, you know, you will make 10 pips, every single day by trading this strategy, you know, I would be, I would be very confident in saying that they are not being honest.

If they are trying to sell something like that, a strategy that gives you 20 pips, every single day, every single market environment, timeframe, etc, isn’t being honest.

For us, the highest probability of looking at, basically, taking pips from the market, every day, is making sure that you’re staying on the right sentiment, the fresh sentiment, every single day.

Whether it is trading the Aussie-Yen, like, in an example, for today, in terms of risk of trading, whether we are trading, you know, any other sentiment-type of shift.

Whatever the market is focused on today, whatever is driving the markets today, we prefer to focus on those things, as we think that provides you with a much higher probability of staying on the right side of the market, and ensuring that you extract pips from the market on a daily basis.

Now, that is important, also, because, there might be some days where there just isn’t any high probability sentiment driving currency prices. Now, on those days, the very best of traders are the ones that are gonna be patient, and know that this isn’t an environment to trade in. I’m rather gonna sit out, and wait for a clear catalyst, a clear short-term driver, to, for the next highest probability move.

In days where there’s just nothing driving the markets, on those days, it’s better to stay out, because you might trade something, and you’ll just get a range-bound market, or you’ll be whipped around, in terms of price action. So, there might be some days where you get nothing.

There might be other days where there are ample trading opportunities.

On a day like today, there’s quite a couple, not only looking at the Aussie-Yen, you could’ve considered the Aussie-Swiss, the Kiwi-Yen, Kiwi-Swiss, CAD-Yen, Kiwi-Swiss, a CAD-Swiss, I mean.

So, there’s a couple of opportunities when we have strong sentiment driving the markets, but nothing that will guarantee you a set amount of pips, every single day, in every market environment. So, I hope that helps you out there, Bobby.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Arno Venter, ForexSource.

Swiss Franc Tries To Recover

New week starts with the strengthening of the Swiss Franc but the whole February is so far pretty bad for this currency. CHF is currently on the bearish territory on almost all pairs, with the further negative outlook on the future.

Let’s look at the USDCHF first. Here, we do have a very handsome inverse head and shoulders pattern. Formation is already active, as the price broke the neckline of this formation and also already tested that line as a closest support. As long as we stay above the orange area, the sentiment is positive.

On AUDCHF, we also have an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Neckline and the mid-term down trendline were already broken. The only obstacle left is the horizontal resistance around 0.661. Price breaking that resistance, will confirm a strong bullish sentiment here.

Now let’s look at the whole Swiss Franc index. Most recent weakness should not be a surprise as the index broke the mid-term up trendline. Current rise should also not be a surprise as the CHFX met crucial, mid-term horizontal support. As long as we stay above, CHF has a potential to develop this bullish bounce but the major long-term sentiment is still negative.

AUD/CHF Is Still Bearish As The Price Is Capped Below 0.6590

Dear Traders,

The AUD/CHF got the overbought signal while in downtrend. We might expect a further drop in the AUD currency.

The pair is having a retracement within thr 0.6545-60 zone. Sellers might take control again on the bearish candlestick pattern. A rejection off the zone should target 0.6520 and 0.6490. If the price goes below 0.6490 then bearish continuation towards 0.6439 is possible. The scenario is valid as long sa the price is below 0.6590. Have in mind that the AUD/CHF market is slower as it shows only 55 pips of the ATR(5) and it might take a while for the price move to develop.

The Analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.Core and Sit Systems