USD Gains Traction Ahead of the NFP

American Traders did what they love to do. They bought the dip and made another V-shape reversal. SP500 and Dow Jones are back above the major supports with handsome buy signals.

The Nasdaq on the other hand is still struggling. Here, a further drop is very probable.

The DAX is flirting with all-time-highs, again

Gold drops after a brilliant head and shoulders pattern. The drop stopped on a mid-term up trendline. This can be a good place to stop this correction.

The EURUSD drops ahead of the NFP data.

This day is important for the USDCAD as we do have labor market data from Canada and the US. The ‘loonie’ tries to bounce from a major long-term horizontal support.

The AUDCHF doing everything to defend the 38,2% Fibo.

The AUDUSD breaks the neckline of the H&S formation and the lower line of the triangle is possibly bearish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices and Commodities Continue the Bull Run

 

The new week – with the US market starting on Tuesday due to Labor Day – is starting on the front foot with all the major indices climbing significantly higher.

The DAX broke the upper line of the pennant formation and is heading north with high momentum.

Gold is still climbing inside a big channel up formation. The price will most probably hit the 1960 USD/oz pretty soon.

Brent Oil is breaking the psychological barrier of 70 USD/bbl at the time of writing.

The EURUSD has fully recovered after a false bearish breakout of the mid-term up trendline which started on Friday.

The USDCAD broke the lower line of the pennant formation and all this is happening on a major, long-term support.

The AUDCHF tried to break the short-term horizontal resistance in order to create a bigger bounce from the 38,2% Fibonacci.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices In a Correction Mode but Still Bullish in The Long-Term

 

American indices take a small break after the buying marathon which started the previous week.

DAX bounces from the 38,2% Fibo and the lower line of the flag. That is bullish but the false breakout from Monday can be a little bit worrying.

Gold breaks the upper line of the pennant and climbs higher to test the upper line of the channel up formation. The life of a gold bull seems ok at the moment.

The same with oil bulls. Today, we do have a small correction but the main sentiment is definitely positive.

The EURUSD extends loses after the double top formation.

The AUDCHF is still above a major support but it doesn’t look like a bounce, more like a correction and preparation for another leg down.

The NZDCAD climbs higher after the false bearish breakout.

The EURCAD makes a double top formation on the 38,2% Fibonacci. That is one of the best price action setups there is. A bearish setup of course

The GBPJPY is waiting for a breakout from the symmetric triangle pattern. That can turn into an awesome trade pretty soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices Continue the Rise From the Last Week

 

Indices start this week on the front foot. The global bounce from the end of the last week seems secure.

Gold waiting for a breakout inside of the pennant formation.

Brent Oil continuing the bounce from a crucial horizontal support on the 65 USD/oz.

The EURUSD pair cannot decide which direction it is heading, having strong bullish and bearish days, one after another.

The AUDCHF pair is testing 38,2% Fibonacci. First buyers are there!

The NZDCAD pair is coming back above the lower line of the descending triangle pattern. That is potentially a start of a false breakout pattern and a legitimate buy signal.

The GBPJPY pair tests the neckline of a nice Head and Shoulders formation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Major Indices Bounce From Crucial Supports, Not All of Them Though

 

SP500 is doing what it always does – V shape reversal and a rapid bounce from the major support (in this case, long-term up trendline).

Dow Jones is in a similar situation; surge after contact with an uptrend line sorts out the situation.

Nasdaq on the other hand is having some issues, here the price broke the uptrend line, so the buy signal is no longer here.

DAX with a sweet-looking hammer on the daily chart yesterday. We’re still inside of the wedge, with a bright outlook for tomorrow

Nikkei with a similar situation to Nasdaq – the major uptrend line got broken. What’s more, we broke the lower line of the triangle and the support on the 28300, which is negative

Brent Oil bounces from the lower line of the channel up formation

The USDCAD is on a key long-term horizontal support. A bounce here wouldn’t be a surprise

The AUDCHF breaks the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern, that’s bearish

The GBPJPY currently creates the right shoulder of the H&S pattern. Here a breakout of the neckline would a mid-term sell signal

American Indices Moving in Opposite Directions

American Indices are currently moving in opposite directions. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is going down, aiming for the long-term up trendline while the old-school Dow Jones flirts with all-time highs after the price escaped from the pennant formation.

The German Dax is trading inside a flag formation, which is promoting a long-term breakout to the upside.

Gold is aiming higher after a successful bounce from the 1760 USD/oz support.

The USDCAD broke the lower line of the channel down formation, which should be considered an extreme weakness.

The AUDCHF tested the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. A breakout to the downside is very probable.

The ZARJPY shot higher after a false bearish breakout from the Head and Shoulders formation.

The EURPLN is aiming higher after a very handsome bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

The USDHUF dropped like a rock after the price created a shooting star on the daily chart, which bounced from a combination of dynamic and horizontal resistances.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Terrible Month for USD but Maybe the Last Day Will Be Better

Gold attacked a crucial support again but this time with a very sharp fall.

Brent oil initiated a bearish correction.

The Dow Jones is still in a pennant waiting for a breakout.

The DAX is still in a rectangle pattern also patiently waiting for a direction.

The EURUSD has started a bearish correction.

The Canadian Dollar is still going stronger.

The EURAUD is in a symmetric triangle waiting for a breakout.

The AUDCHF is in a similar situation.

The EURNZD is also waiting to end the sideways trend but in this case, the price is locked inside of a rectangle.

The AUDJPY defends a crucial support level after the bullish breakout from the triangle. It’s an interesting opportunity in terms of risk to reward ratio.

The ZARJPY defends the neckline of the head and shoulders formation.

The USDHUF is in a long-term sell signal after the price drops below the major support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weekly Round Up – February 21st, 2021

AUD/USD broke its long standing and much written line at 0.7821 and traded 57 pips to 0.7877. Above 0.7821, AUD/USD ranges between 0.7821 to the 10 year average at 0.8305 or 484 pips. Below 0.7821, AUD/USD trades 0.7821 to 0.7308 or 513 pips. Below 0.7821 exists 0.7605.

DXY last week maintained its 148 pip range between 89.95 to 91.43. Above 91.43 next targets 92.78 in a 135 pip range.

GBP as written in the last post maintains deep overbought status across all GBP pairs except GBP/NZD. Watch 1.9136 this week for best moves.

EUR/USD opens in fairly perfect neutrality however ranges continue to compress. Problem pair EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs maintain deeply overbought status for week 4. EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD open the week massive oversold. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD will provide the best moves.

Stand clear EUR/CHF as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF will provide better movements.

NZD/USD 0.7267 then 0.7356 Vs 0.7267 and 0.7990. NZD/CAD is overbought while NZD/JPY heading into week 4 maintains richter scale overbought status.

Overall, NZD/USD traded 200 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.7300’s for the past 2 months and provided support to GBP and AUD to allow both to move higher. Explains the divergence seen in EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD this week.

USD/JPY watch 104.97 and USD/CAD 1.2587 Vs 1.2826.

 

 

Indices in Europe Start This Week With a Correction

American Indices continue the buying fiesta.

European indices, on the other hand, undergo a bearish correction.

Gold tries to create a right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders formation.

EURUSD pair continue the correction inside a flag formation.

GBPUSD pair drop below 1.37 again.

AUDCHF with a triple top formation but so far without a proper sell signal.

GBPJPY bounces from the 142.2 again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices Try to Catch a Breath. Great Session for USD

Almost all indices collapse and aim for long-term lows.

SP500 is testing the 23,6% Fibonacci.

DAX is very close to reach the 38,2% Fibonacci.

FTSE breaks the lower line of the wedge formation.

CAC reaches crucial support from the first half of the year.

EURUSD breaks the lower line of the flag formation.

EURAUD eventually bounces from the upper line of the sideways trend.

EURGBP in a flag but with inclinations for an upswing.

AUDCHF goes lower after the bounce from a crucial resistance.

WTI Oil breaks the lower line of the symmetric triangle.

Gold goes lower after the escape from the mid-term pennant.

USDPLN breaks the neckline of the inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, it looks bullish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stock Traders Lick the Wounds Ahead of the NFP Data

DAX drops like a rock but stops on the major up trendline, where the price tries to initiate a reversal

CAC creates a false breakout pattern from the symmetric triangle

Nasdaq and SP500 tumble but are still above all major supports

Brent in the negative territory after escaping from the wedge pattern

Gold tries to defend major long-term up trendline

Dollar Index tries to create a triple bottom formation

USDCAD below major resistance, waiting for crucial job data

AUDCHF and AUDNZD test important horizontal support

EURPLN finally escapes from the sideways trend and breaks major long-term down trendline

Is There A Strategy To Make 20 PIPs Per Day?

As far as strategies goes, there’s so many different strategies out there, in terms of exit, and, entries and exits, in terms of a technical strategy.

The way that we find gives us the highest probability opportunity to make pips from the market, every day, is just by following the daily sentiment. Now, whether that’ll give you five pips for that day, whether it’ll give you 10 pips, 20 pips, 100 pips, it really does depend on the type of sentiment. It really does depend on the type of trade that you take. Also, the underlying volatility of the market.

So, looking at something like the Aussie-Yen. Normally, in a day trade, like the Aussie-Yen, due to much lower volatility ranges, we would expect to make anything, from, or would be happy to make anything, from, let’s say 10 to 30 pips, on a normal, standard day trade like this one, today.

But, because we’ve seen all those massive moves in the market, traded recently, due to the, basically, the run up to the recession, and those big moves we saw in equities, if we just look at this range for today, we can see, it’s almost a 60 per branch to the downside, which is quite a lot for just a standard day trade.

So, it really does depend on quite a couple of factors.

There isn’t a strategy, especially technically speaking, that can guarantee you any type of, you know, set pip range per day. 10, 20, 30 pips, etc. A trader out there that tells you, you know, you will make 10 pips, every single day by trading this strategy, you know, I would be, I would be very confident in saying that they are not being honest.

If they are trying to sell something like that, a strategy that gives you 20 pips, every single day, every single market environment, timeframe, etc, isn’t being honest.

For us, the highest probability of looking at, basically, taking pips from the market, every day, is making sure that you’re staying on the right sentiment, the fresh sentiment, every single day.

Whether it is trading the Aussie-Yen, like, in an example, for today, in terms of risk of trading, whether we are trading, you know, any other sentiment-type of shift.

Whatever the market is focused on today, whatever is driving the markets today, we prefer to focus on those things, as we think that provides you with a much higher probability of staying on the right side of the market, and ensuring that you extract pips from the market on a daily basis.

Now, that is important, also, because, there might be some days where there just isn’t any high probability sentiment driving currency prices. Now, on those days, the very best of traders are the ones that are gonna be patient, and know that this isn’t an environment to trade in. I’m rather gonna sit out, and wait for a clear catalyst, a clear short-term driver, to, for the next highest probability move.

In days where there’s just nothing driving the markets, on those days, it’s better to stay out, because you might trade something, and you’ll just get a range-bound market, or you’ll be whipped around, in terms of price action. So, there might be some days where you get nothing.

There might be other days where there are ample trading opportunities.

On a day like today, there’s quite a couple, not only looking at the Aussie-Yen, you could’ve considered the Aussie-Swiss, the Kiwi-Yen, Kiwi-Swiss, CAD-Yen, Kiwi-Swiss, a CAD-Swiss, I mean.

So, there’s a couple of opportunities when we have strong sentiment driving the markets, but nothing that will guarantee you a set amount of pips, every single day, in every market environment. So, I hope that helps you out there, Bobby.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Arno Venter, ForexSource.

Swiss Franc Tries To Recover

New week starts with the strengthening of the Swiss Franc but the whole February is so far pretty bad for this currency. CHF is currently on the bearish territory on almost all pairs, with the further negative outlook on the future.

Let’s look at the USDCHF first. Here, we do have a very handsome inverse head and shoulders pattern. Formation is already active, as the price broke the neckline of this formation and also already tested that line as a closest support. As long as we stay above the orange area, the sentiment is positive.

On AUDCHF, we also have an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Neckline and the mid-term down trendline were already broken. The only obstacle left is the horizontal resistance around 0.661. Price breaking that resistance, will confirm a strong bullish sentiment here.

Now let’s look at the whole Swiss Franc index. Most recent weakness should not be a surprise as the index broke the mid-term up trendline. Current rise should also not be a surprise as the CHFX met crucial, mid-term horizontal support. As long as we stay above, CHF has a potential to develop this bullish bounce but the major long-term sentiment is still negative.

AUD/CHF Is Still Bearish As The Price Is Capped Below 0.6590

Dear Traders,

The AUD/CHF got the overbought signal while in downtrend. We might expect a further drop in the AUD currency.

The pair is having a retracement within thr 0.6545-60 zone. Sellers might take control again on the bearish candlestick pattern. A rejection off the zone should target 0.6520 and 0.6490. If the price goes below 0.6490 then bearish continuation towards 0.6439 is possible. The scenario is valid as long sa the price is below 0.6590. Have in mind that the AUD/CHF market is slower as it shows only 55 pips of the ATR(5) and it might take a while for the price move to develop.

The Analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.Core and Sit Systems

 

USD Is Not Willing To Take A Break

One of those can be find on the Dollar Index – DXY. Bullish setup here is really handsome. It all starts with the inverse head and shoulders on the daily chart. Upswing from the last Friday, allowed the price to break the neckline of this formation, along with the major down trendline. Yesterday’s candle is a beautiful hammer and shows us a successful test of those resistances as closest supports. Chances for a further rise are quite significant.

Stronger USD, usually means weaker Gold. Its not different this time too. Gold is still correcting the upswing that happened after the death of the Iran General. Most recent technical development is a breakout of the lower line of the small flag formation, which shows us, that most probably, the downswing will be continued.

The last instrument is a bit exotic but recently, super technical. On the AUDCHF we can spot three nice technical patterns in a row. First one is a giant symmetric triangle, second one is a medium flag and the third one is a tiny pennant. All those patterns ended with a bearish breakout and a drop. As long as we stay below the 0.669, the sentiment is negative.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, Director of Research and Education at Axiory

Swiss Franc is Showing, How it Suppose to be Done

We will start with a small update about the USDCHF, which we were talking about few days ago. Back then, we pointed at the flag pattern and the price bouncing from the crucial resistances. We were bearish. USDCHF did not disappoint us and easily broke the lower line of the flag aiming south. Yesterday’s breakout triggers us a legitimate sell signal.

Next one is the AUDCHF, which also was on our radar in one of our previous analysis. Here, there was no surprise as well. The price tested crucial resistances and after drawing a flag, went lower. The sentiment is negative and the AUDCHF is aiming the lows from the August 2019.

Last one is the EURCHF, where we have a similar setup, so a breakout of the lower line of the flag and a sharp drop. We are also mentioning this instrument to show You the power of the technical analysis. The price patterns in particular. The whole drop started with the head and shoulders pattern and the breakout of its neckline. Then, we had a rectangle and the breakout of its lower line. Then a flag mentioned above. Real beauty and I wish You to find more handsome setups like that in the future!

Three Great Setups With Weaker AUD and Stronger NZD

It can be nicely seen on our first instrument: AUDCHF, where the price is drawing a beautiful hammer on the daily chart. This long tail, shows us a rapid strengthening of the CHF, followed by a fast reversal. In overall, the situation is negative. Few days ago, AUDCHF broke the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern along with the horizontal support on the 0.669. Price closing below the orange support gave us a significant sell signal. Today’s hammer is really not changing much here.

I will continue with the AUD and show You an interesting setup on the AUDNZD. Here, yesterday, the sharp drop gave us a long-term sell signal. The pair broker the lower line of the descending triangle pattern and the lower line of a channel up formation. According to the all books about the technical analysis – that is a very negative situation promoting a further drop.

Two above setups show us a weakness of the AUD and the latest – additional strength of the NZD. Kiwi’s power can be confirmed by the situation on the EURNZD, where we do have a very handsome reversal. I must admit that this setup is really classic. We do have a bullish correction, ending on the down trendline, 23,6% Fibo and the horizontal support on the 1.68. In addition to that, the price draws a long head. Really it rarely gets much better than this. The pair is dropping quite significantly and there are big chances that we are going to witness new mid-term lows soon.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, Director of Research and Education at Axiory

Lower Inflation Drags the AUD Down

In my opinion, the best occasion from the pairs with the AUD or NZD, can be spotted on the AUDCHF, were we do have a false breakout pattern above the crucial long-term resistance.

AUDCHF was climbing higher since the very end of March after the price bounced from the horizontal support on the 0.703. In addition to that, the price broke the upper line of the wedge, which gave boost to this upswing. Natural target for the rise was the red line connecting long-term lower highs. Quite surprisingly, the price broke that resistance but now we see that it was only a false breakout and thanks to that data, the price is already back below the red line. False breakouts are usually very strong signals so I would not be surprised if the price reached 0.703 again.

Now Bitcoin, were the bullish scenario is still on the table. Most recently, BTC broke the upper line of the ascending triangle, which gave us another buy signal. Today, the price is declining to test the broken resistance as a closest support. That is a typical movement in Price Action. Bounce from the yellow line will open us a way towards the 6000 USD.

Last instrument is the GBPUSD, where the price is declining, driven mostly by the bearish breakout from the symmetric triangle pattern. After that, Cable managed to break the horizontal support on the 1.298 and that price action is currently responsible for the legitimate sell signal that we are witnessing at the moment.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

3 Proper Buy Signals!

USD started this week on the back foot. This is explained in many ways. Some of them are funny like the one that EUR is gaining because of the fears of the EU-US trade wars (Airbus). What? Sometimes you read those headlines and you just cannot believe in those explanations. Anyway, here are three best trading occasions on the market right now:

EURUSD made a head and shoulders pattern. On Monday, the price broke the neckline of this formation and today, we defended this line as a closest support. In theory, that promotes a buy signal. The closest target is on the 38,2% Fibo. Chances that we will get there are pretty high.

Next one is Gold, where the price is continuing the upswing started with the hammer on the neckline. We saw this hammer, we knew it increases the chances for an upswing and we traded that. The price is going up and with that defense of the neckline, chances for a further rise are higher.

Last one is the AUDCHF, which managed to defend the long-term horizontal support. With that defense, the price started to make higher lows and highs, which can be perceived as a start of a new uptrend. Today, we are on the highest levels since the middle of March and we have a great opportunity to reach the tops from the beginning of February.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis