AUD/NZD Bearish Domination

As the price is breaking below Q L4 and M L3, we can expect a bearish continuation move. Watch for M L5 and Q L5 as targets 1.0250-1.0200. The main point of this config is that the price has broken through Q L4 which is the 3-month breakout. It is also below M L4 which signifies for a double breakout point to the full TP.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

NZD Is Ready to Flex Muscles Again

There’s an excellent long-term setup on the CHFJPY, where we are finishing a bearish correction. The price is bouncing from the combination of a horizontal and dynamic support and everything seems ready for another bullish wave.

The AUDNZD is in a short-term sideways movement but with a long-term negative outlook.

The NZDCHF is in a perfect flag formation. For the buy signal, we need to see the breakout of the upper line of this pattern.

The NZDJPY is in a similar situation but here we additionally have a bounce from the horizontal support. The sentiment is positive.

Silver uses every chance to go lower. Currently, we are testing the long-term support of a symmetric triangle. The outlook is rather negative.

The dollar Index broke the neckline of the giant inverted Head and Shoulders pattern and yesterday it defended it as a support with a hammer candle. That is definitely a positive and optimistic sign for buyers.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

New Zealand Central Bank Ends Bond Purchases, Paving Way for Possible Rate Hikes

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate at 0.25% but cut short a NZ$100 billion ($70 billion) bond buying programme, prompting local banks to bring forward calls for a rate rise to as early as August, which would put New Zealand at the forefront of countries to raise interest rates.

“The RBNZ has absolutely done enough hand-waving today to tick the ‘market-prep’ box for an August hike, with CPI and labour market data set to do the rest,” said Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ Bank.

The move comes amid nagging inflation worries globally, with U.S. inflation data rising by the most in 13 years in June, adding to uncertainty about whether such inflationary pressures are transitory.

New Zealand’s pandemic-free economy has been growing on the back of a housing boom and strong retail spending, raising concerns that it may get overheated pushing inflation above the bank’s target and squeeze the labour market.

First quarter GDP swept past forecasts, rising 1.6%. A survey last week showed the business outlook was now better than pre-COVID levels, and hiring constraints and inflationary pressures were starting to bite.

The RBNZ noted that in the absence of further economic shocks, consumer price inflation pressure is expected to build over time due to rising domestic capacity pressures and growing labour shortages.

“Members agreed that the major downside risks of deflation and high unemployment have receded,” the RBNZ said in minutes of the meeting.

“The (Monetary Policy) Committee agreed that a ‘least regrets’ policy now implied that the significant level of monetary support in place since mid-2020 could be reduced sooner.”

CHANGE OF TACK

A rate hike this year would make New Zealand the first developed economy to kick off policy tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia said earlier this month that it did not expect a rate rise before 2024.

The New Zealand dollar rose 1.1% after the announcement to $0.7017. Yields on two-year bonds surged 9 basis points to its high for this year at 1.668%.

“The RBNZ has clearly changed tack to decide that the time for reducing monetary stimulus is very near. The risk of inflation and employment undershooting the objectives has switched to the risk of overshooting should the current level of stimulus remain in place,” said Nick Tuffley, Chief Economist at ASB Bank.

The RBNZ slashed its interest rate to record lows in March last year and pumped billions of dollars in stimulus as the COVID-19 pandemic raged through the country and the globe.

New Zealand, however, managed to contain the spread of the virus, with the last community case of COVID-19 reported in February, allowing the economy to bounce back faster than most others.

At its meeting in May, the RBNZ had hinted at a hike in September 2022.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

($1 = 1.4253 New Zealand dollars)

(Reporting by Praveen Menon; Editing by Richard Pullin)

AUD/NZD Double Bullish Pennant Breakout and Continuation

The AUD/NZD is very bullish. We should see a bullish continuation. Double pattern has been broken and the price is proceeding further up.

Breakout above W H4 has made another strong move to the upside and now is all about either retest or continuation. On a retest of 1.0835 zone or 1.0910 I expect a continuation up. Even if the market drops to 1.0900 it will be a consolidation before a move up. Final target is 1.10055. It’s buy the dips scenario.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

Price Patterns Show Australian Dollar Strength Against NZD

The AUD/NZD has made a bullish breakout above the ascending wedge pattern on the daily chart. An uptrend is expected to continue higher soon. Let’s review the key patterns in this article.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

AUD/NZD 26.03.2021 daily chart

The AUD/NZD is in a long-term consolidation, sideways price action. But the daily chart is developing interesting price patterns.

The Australian Dollar seems ready for more strength, which is useful information when trading AUD or NZD currency crosses.

For instance, it could be to look for NZD weakness and AUD strength when trading against the USD, EUR, GBP, or JPY. Or of course, trading the AUD/NZD might be an option as well.

  1. The AUD/NZD seems to be building a larger ABC pattern (purple – or perhaps 123).
  2. The wave B (purple) and wave 2 (pink) seem to be completed.
  3. The bullish breakout could indicate a wave 3 (pink).
  4. A bullish breakout (green arrows) above the Wizz 7 level and -27.2% Fibonacci target could indicate a push higher towards the -61.8% Fibonacci level.
  5. Only a deep retracement below the previous top and below the support zone would place the uptrend on hold (orange button) or invalidate it (red button).

On the 1 hour chart, price action is showing a strong push up (purple boxes). This is typical for a wave 3 (orange).

  1. The current pullback is choppy and corrective which is also usual for a wave 4 (orange).
  2. Price action could make an immediate breakout (blue arrow).
  3. Or price action could retest the shallow Fibonacci retracement levels again. A bullish bounce is expected there (green arrows).
  4. A break below the 50% makes the current wave 4 less likely.
  5. A break below the 61.8% Fib makes it invalid.
  6. The targets are located at 1.11 and 1.12.

AUD/NZD 26.03.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

FX Weekly March 7

Currency markets this week remain in pivotal positions however added to the week is NZD/USD at 0.7139, 

GBP/CAD 1.7484

AUD/USD 0.7652

USD/CAD 1.2771,

CHF/JPY 116.65

AUD/NZD 1.0765

AUD/CAD 0.9768 and 

NZD/CAD 0.9113

Ranges are wide this week and markets are easily capable to handle the big moves expected. Watch in particular EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD then GBP/USD. 

AUD/USD and NZD/USD topside pairs NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD both broke lower and signifies its a matter of time before AUD/USD and NZD/USD break and trade much lower. Bottom pairs AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF are both overbought and assists to further downside to AUD/USD and NZD/USD. 

GBP/AUD last week’s vital points were located from 1.8130 to 1.7885. This week 1.8130 to 1.7905. GBP/AUD broke 1.7885 and traded 80 pips lower. GBP/AUD correlates to GBP/USD at – 64% and caution is warranted to trade GBP/AUD.

GBP/NZD last week reported ranges from 1.9318 to 1.9176. This week 1.9318 to 1.9188. GBP/NZD last week first  broke 1.9176 to trade 82 pips to 1.9094. GBP/NZD then traded above 1.9176 to achieve 1.9415 highs and closed at 1.9290 vs last week’s close  at 1.9244. GBP/NZD correlation to GBP/USD run -43% and caution to this week’s trade. 

EUR/USD and all EUR pairs are deeply oversold and matches to richter scale overbought to USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Moves lower to USD/JPY and USD/CHF are corrective unless 105.70 and 0.9064 breaks lower. EUR/USD higher is corrective unless 1.2020 and 1.2034  trades higher. Weeks ago was reported EUR/USD targets at 1.1800’s and 1.1700’s. 

JPY cross pairs represent the best market moves for most pip gains beginning with GBP/JPY as all JPY cross pairs are overbought and current prices are miles to high. 

Last post was shown GBP/JPY true moving averages and the 20 day is located at 148.38 then the 50 day at 145.26. The 20 day average matches the 10 year average at 148.36 and off by 2 pips. A break at 148.00’s then GBP/JPY larger range becomes 148.38 to 142.30. 

Watch EUR/CAD higher this week, EUR/GBP oversold and GBP/USD overbought. 

Next 2 and 10 year yields, levels, ranges and targets. Inflation as a 3 month interest rate and its relationship to the 2 year yield. 

AUD/NZD Bearish Break Offers Wide Open Space to Fib Levels

The AUD/NZD has been in range for more than 5 year on the monthly chart (price action hitting the 21 ema zone). Price is now showing a potential bearish breakout with 100-300 pips space.

But the Fibonacci levels could also act as support zones… Let’s review the monthly and 4 hour charts.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

AUD/NZD Monthly chart 30.11.20

The AUD/NZD seems to be building a large ABC (blue) pattern. Although this wave outlook is fragile to the choppy consolidation zone.

If a larger wave C (blue) does occur, then price is expected to make a bullish bounce at the Fibonacci retracement levels. Price should also break above the resistance trend line (orange) if a 5 wave pattern emerges (pink).

A break below the bottom invalidates (red circle) the bullish outlook. This confirms a bearish breakout below the range and also a full downtrend.

On the 4 hour chart, price could have completed a wave 5 (purple) of a larger ABC (pink) pattern at the -27.2% Fibonacci target (green box) and 50% Fib on the monthly chart.

  • But price action must break above the 21 ema zone and then the 38.2% resistance Fib to confirm that (blue arrows).
  • A bearish breakout below the support zone (green line) or a bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci zone could confirm the bearish outlook.

It remains likely that price action will move lower to test at least the 61.8% Fib at 1.04 if not the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0220 on the monthly chart. Also, the -61.8% Fibonacci targets form a confluence at 1.0310.

AUD/NZD 4 hour chart 30.11.20

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

American Indices With a Very Powerful Bullish Setup

Nasdaq and SP500 made huge inverse head and shoulders patterns and are advancing significantly higher

FTSE trying to break the upper line of the wedge

EURUSD climbed back above the 1.177 support

AUDUSD climbed back above 50 and 61,8% Fibonacci

GBPUSD broke the neckline of the iH&S formation

AUDNZD is testing major horizontal support

Gold broke major long-term dynamic resistance

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Stocks Erase Tuesday Loses, On The Way Towards New Highs Again.

Stocks erased Tuesday’s loses and are heading significantly higher.

EURUSD fell back below crucial support and are now testing the lower line of the flag.

EURAUD still locked inside of the long-term range.

AUDNZD breaks the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern and the upper line of the flag.

USDJPY creates a small pennant after breaking major long-term dynamic resistance.

EURNZD with the head and shoulders pattern but the first attack on the neckline was unsuccessful.

NZDCAD with a head and shoulders pattern but the first attack on the neckline was unsuccessful too.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Breaks Crucial Resistances, but GBP/USD and AUD/USD Fail

CAC tests the broken neckline as the closest support

FTSE bounces from the bottom line of the wedge pattern

SP500 breaks the neckline of a big inverse head and shoulders pattern

EURUSD breaks major dynamic and horizontal resistance

AUDUSD bounces with style from the crucial horizontal resistance

GBPUSD is doing pretty much the same

EURAUD aims the upper line of the range

AUDNZD fails to go higher after a beautiful bullish setup

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD and Major Indices Test Important Resistance

CAC after the false bearish breakout is forming the inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Nasdaq, as expected, reached the 11550 resistance.

SP500 is testing the neckline of the iH&S pattern.

EURUSD is flirting with the upper line of the flag and horizontal resistance on 1.175.

EURPLN tests the 4,5 again.

EURAUD still locked inside of the sideways trend.

AUDNZD with a very similar situation to EURUSD, the price is below the lower line of the flag.

AUDUSD tests crucial horizontal resistance, first rection is a small bounce.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Buyers Try to Stop This Bearish Madness

 

DAX broke the lower line of the wedge

CAC broke the lower line of the triangle

NASDAQ creates inverse head and shoulders pattern

SP500 bounces from the 38,2% Fibonacci

Dollar Index creates double top formation just above crucial resistance

EURUSD and GBPUSD try to initiate a bullish reversal with the double bottom formations

EURPLN finally escapes from the triangle to the upside

AUDNZD tests the broken support as a resistance

AUDJPY with the false bullish breakout and the head and shoulders pattern

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Markets Tries to Recover After FED’s Disappointment

Indices drop sharply but try to catch first horizontal supports in order to recover

Nasdaq looks very promising on its 23,6% Fibonacci.

Brent goes up after the bullish escape from the small triangle.

USDJPY with a proper sell signal coming from the triangle.

EURUSD with a head and shoulders pattern, defending the neckline as we speak.

EURJPY creates a head and shoulders pattern on the major, long-term down trendline. That look extremely bearish.

AUDNZD defending crucial horizontal support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stock Traders Lick the Wounds Ahead of the NFP Data

DAX drops like a rock but stops on the major up trendline, where the price tries to initiate a reversal

CAC creates a false breakout pattern from the symmetric triangle

Nasdaq and SP500 tumble but are still above all major supports

Brent in the negative territory after escaping from the wedge pattern

Gold tries to defend major long-term up trendline

Dollar Index tries to create a triple bottom formation

USDCAD below major resistance, waiting for crucial job data

AUDCHF and AUDNZD test important horizontal support

EURPLN finally escapes from the sideways trend and breaks major long-term down trendline

Indices and USD Climb Higher

DAX aims higher after the breakout of the upper line of the flag

CAC is getting closer to the upper line of the triangle

SP500 avoids the drop after the bearish head and shoulders pattern

Gold drops and aims long-term up trendline

EUR/USD is about to test a combination of crucial supports

AUD/NZD makes contact with important horizontal level

CAD/CHF breaks the upper line of the ascending triangle pattern and aims higher

AUD/JPY with a very similar situation

Dollar Goes Down Again, Indices Quite the Opposite

Dollar Index breaks crucial horizontal support

Brent escapes from the symmetric triangle

USD/CAD goes lower after the successful breakout of the 1.33

GBP/USD will test 1.32 again

DAX bounces from 12800 again

EUR/USD breaks important horizontal resistance

USD/JPY is back below 106

AUD/NZD is on the 8th bullish day in a row

Gold cancels the wedge and comes back to the bullish trend

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Video Technical Analysis: NZD Starts This Week With a Drop

Monday starts with a slight optimism on the major exchanges but it’s hard to call it a game-changer as the volatility is rather low and we can sense a holiday mood on the trading floors. Worry not, in this environment we were still able to find three interesting trading setups, which you may find very interesting.

First one is a small update about the AUDNZD, which we mentioned a few times at the beginning of the month. Back then, the price was testing crucial resistance on 1.085. Price was trying to close a day above that level since September 2019. In ourprevious analysis, we said that price closing a day above that resistance will be a legitimate buy signal. And it did! Since that time, we got 8 bullish days in a row and price is currently 180 pips higher, what a move! With this, the long-term sentiment is definitely positive but a chance for a short-term bearish correction is rising.

As for the NZD, we do have a very negative situation on the NZDJPY, where we broke the lower line of the rectangle, which gave us a proper sell signal. Now, we are testing the neckline as we do have a proper head and shoulders formation. Priceclosing a day below the neckline will be a super strong sell signal, especially when we will consider a weekly chart and the shooting start candlestick bouncing from the long-term downtrend line.

Last but not least is the EURPLN, which is on the verge of breaking crucial horizontalsupport – 4,4. In the shorter-term, the price created a rectangle pattern and Mondaystarts with an attack on its lower line. First attack seems unsuccessful and it actually opens a way up north based on the possibility of a false breakout pattern. One is certain here. We are getting closer and closer to a final decision, sharp breakout and a slide or a bounce.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Surge Higher. Dollar Give Backs the Gains

 

Dollar Index is giving back the gains. Wedge promotes a further drop

USD/CAD goes under 1.33 again

GBP/USD aims 1.32

AUD/NZD tries to establish presence above 1.084

DAX breaks crucial resistance on 12800

S&P 500 close to the all-time highs

CAC breaks the neckline of the H&S pattern

EUR/USD breaks mid-term down trend line

USD/JPY tries to close the day above 106

Gold drops and tests the 1980 USD/oz support

USD/PLN breaks the lower line of the wedge

USD/CHF on the other hand, breaks the lower line of the flag

GBP/JPY tests the upper line of the sideways trend

Markets Before NFP. Daily Briefing 7/8/20

The DAX is testing the 12540 level after bouncing from 12800

The USDJPY is on the way to test the 106 level again

The EURPLN is trying to create a double bottom at 4,4

The EURUSD is heading lower after bouncing from 1,19

The USDCAD is seeing a false bearish breakout ahead of important job data

The AUDNZD is creating a fourth flag in a row

The CAC is seeing a false bullish breakout

The GBPUSD has bounced from the crucial resistance of 1.317

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Three Instruments and Three Breakouts of Absolutely Crucial Resistances

The first instrument is traders’ beloved GBPJPY. Often chosen by speculators thanks to its volatility. For the past few days, pair was in the sideways trend, which could have been described as a descending triangle pattern. The formation was not fully reliable as the best signals it gives in a downtrend. Nevertheless, the price broke the upper line of this formation today, which in theory brings us a proper buy signal.

Now AUDNZD, which today is making a crucial long-term movement. Despite the better data from New Zealand, the price is heading higher, so NZD is getting weaker. The reason why this movement is important is that the price is currently testing major long-term horizontal resistance. Buyers are testing this level since September 2019 and they did not manage to close the day above the 1.084 resistance. Price closing a day above, can be a proper buy signal.

The last one is French CAC, which is getting ready for a bullish wave. The price created an inverse head and shoulders pattern and already broke its neckline. What is more, CAC broke the mid-term down trendline and the horizontal resistance on 4900 points. As long as we stay above this level, the sentiment remains positive.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.