Mid-week Technical Outlook: FX Minors & Crosses In Focus

Global equities were tugged and pulled by inflation fears, rate hike expectations, and ongoing geopolitical risks. In the currency space, king dollar loosened its grip on the FX space allowing G10 majors to bounce while lingering below its 200-day Simple Moving Average.

Over the past few weeks our attention has been on king dollar but this afternoon the spotlight shines on minor and cross currency pairs. The minors are normally referring to non-USD forex currency pairs while crosses are pairs that do not contain the dollar as either the base or quote currency.

Although minors and crosses are slightly less popular than the majors and often experience more wild swings due to less liquidity in the markets, they still present trading opportunities. So, if you have had enough of the dollar and would like something different, check out the setups below!

GBPJPY wobbles above 160.00

After rallying the previous session, the GBPJPY looks tired and may be running on empty fumes. Prices remain bearish on the daily timeframe with the candlesticks trading within a negative channel. A breakdown below 160.00 could result in a steeper decline towards 157.50 and lower. Should 160.00 prove to be reliable support, an incline back towards 162.00 could be on the cards.

GBP/JPY Daily chart

EUR/JPY ready to resume selloff?

The technical bounce on the EURJPY could be over if prices fail to push above 137.00. Bears still remain in some control with prices respecting a bearish channel on the daily charts. A decline back under the 50-day Simple Moving Average could trigger a selloff towards 134.50 and 133.00, respectively. If prices are able to break above 137.00, then a move towards 138.00 could become reality.

EUR/JPY Daily chart

EUR/GBP choppy as ever

There is a lot going on with the EURGBP as bulls and bears battle it out. Prices remain as choppy as ever but the trend could turn negative if prices close below 0.8420. Sustained weakness below this level could result in a further decline towards 0.8380. If prices are able to bounce from 0.8420, the next key level of interest can be found at 0.8500.

EUR/GBP Daily chart

EUR/AUD breakdown or bounce?

As the subtitle says, the EURAUD can either experience a technical bounce from 1.4900 or breakdown below this point to hit 1.4600. The trend looks bullish on the daily charts but prices are trading below the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average. Should 1.4900 prove to be reliable support, a move back towards 1.5300 could on the cards.

EUR/AUD Daily chart

AUD/NZD higher highs and higher lows…

This currency pair remains firmly bullish on the daily timeframe. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout and daily close above 1.1100 could encourage a move higher towards 1.1200. A daily close below 1.0750 could trigger a selloff towards 1.08200.

AUD/NZD Daily chart

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Basics of Forex Trading – Part 1

What is the forex market? Why is it a great market to trade? What is a currency pair and how it is read? What are the major terms and concepts that forex traders need to learn? These are some of the questions you will find answers to at the end of this series.

Forex trading can be an exciting and lucrative activity, but it can also be tough, especially for beginners. New market participants underestimate the importance of financial education, lack risk management skills, tend to have unrealistic expectations, and fail to control their emotions, pushing them to act irrationally and impair their performance. In addition, traders in all markets have to accept drawdowns and losses because the best strategies only work part of the time.


KEY POINTS

  • The forex market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world.
  • Traders speculate on the foreign exchange through currency pairs.
  • A variety of factors affect the price of a currency in relation to a second currency.
  • The trader opens and closes positions through buy, sell, stop, and limit orders.
  • Traders use margin and leverage to increase reward and risk.

What is the Forex Market?

The foreign exchange market, also called ‘forex’ or the ‘FX market’, is a global decentralized venue where the world’s money is exchanged through the buying and selling (short) of different currencies. This trading takes place through transactions at brokerages, over-the-counter (OTC) markets, or via the interbank system, rather than centralized exchanges.

Many types of market participants trade the forex market, including private individuals (retail traders) working from home on personal computers or on the road through mobile devices. Thousands of professionals also trade forex through funds, institutions, central banks, and commercial banks, among others.

Forex has grown into the world’s most liquid market for the following reasons:

  • Its Enormous size, with trillions of dollars in daily transactions
  • 24-hour access between Monday and Friday
  • Wide variety of currencies and currency pairs
  • All levels of volatility, from quiet price action to historic uptrends and downtrends
  • Low account minimums
  • Low transaction costs (commissions, spreads, fees, and interest)

Forex trading is conducted through cash-based spot markets, as well as derivatives markets that provide sophisticated access to forwards, futures, options, and currency swaps. Private individuals generally trade forex to speculate on higher or lower prices, making a profit or loss on each closed position. On the other hand, most institutional forex activity is geared towards hedging against currency and interest rate risk or to diversify large portfolios.

New traders open accounts at forex or contracts for difference (CFD) brokers, taking exposure when they speculate on currency pairs, like the Euro vs. U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) or U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). At a typical forex broker, the participant opens a buy or sell (short) position in a decentralized market and books a profit or incurs a loss on the difference between the opening and closing prices.

Exposure at a CFD broker is taken between the trader and broker, establishing a legal obligation to exchange the difference between the entry and exit price of the asset, which can be a currency pair or other financial instrument that includes stocks, bonds, and futures. Forex lot sizes are uniform regardless of currency pair while CFDs have greater size flexibility. This advantage translates into greater risk control and customization of a trader’s experience level and market strategy.

What Moves the Forex Market?

Many factors move the forex market on a daily basis. Forex traders keep 24-hour economic calendars close at hand because regularly-scheduled data releases generate the majority of currency pair rallies and declines, especially when numbers fall outside expectations projected by experts. Global shock events and political developments move currency markets as well, with an election, skirmish, or natural disaster translating into highly-volatile price action.

Economic Calendar

Reading a Forex Quote

Foreign exchange is always quoted in pairs. For example, in the EUR/USD currency pair, the Euro (EUR) is the ‘base’ currency while the U.S. Dollar (USD) is the ‘quoted’ currency. The quoted currency is always the equivalent of one base currency, so if the EUR/USD exchange rate is worth 1.1222, you will get $1.12 for €1.00.

Note how the EUR/USD currency pair has four decimals. This is typical of most currency pairs, except those including the Japanese Yen (JPY), which displays only two decimals. When a currency pair moves up or down, the change is measured in ‘Pips’, which is a one-digit movement in the last decimal of a currency pair. So, for example, when the EUR/USD rallies from $1.1222 to $1.1223, the EUR/USD has increased by one Pip.

Forex Quote

The broker’s trading platform will display two prices in a currency pair quotation: a SELL price on the left (BID price) and a BUY price on the right (ASK price). The difference between these prices is called the ‘spread’. The spread is pocketed by the broker and is one of the main ways in which the company makes money.

A buy order that’s filled above the quoted ask or sell order that’s filled below the quoted bid incurs ‘slippage’, one of the biggest obstacles to profitable forex trading. Slippage occurs most often in volatile or active currency pairs when placing a market order.

Forex Spread

The average daily trading volume of the forex market now exceeds 5 trillion U.S. Dollars, making it the most liquid market in the world. Liquidity refers to how easy it is for market participants to open and close positions without affecting the price of the underlying asset.

The concept of liquidity also works hand-in-hand with volatility, which measures the speed and velocity of changing buy and sell prices. The majority of forex traders love volatile markets because they provide greater opportunities to profit, especially with short-term strategies like scalping and day trading.

Forex Trading Risks

Most forex traders lose money over time. Lack of preparation, bad leveraging, weak skill sets, and emotional fatigue all take their toll, triggering losses that eventually force the trader to ‘wash out’, leaving the forex game to the next participant.  The profitable minority learns how to overcome these headwinds, often spending hours building skillsets, doing research, and testing new systems and strategies.

In addition, banks around the world seek to manage sovereign and credit risk through bid and ask prices on the interbank quoting system, triggering frequent supply and demand disruptions unrelated to market-moving events or economic releases. These pose a major risk for the typical newcomer who grows complacent between scheduled market movers, failing to place stop losses, or taking too much short-term exposure for their experience level.

Ironically, the new trader’s biggest risk comes from the broker they choose. The vast interbank system is a hodgepodge of ‘regulated brokers’, offering unbiased market access, and ‘unregulated brokers’ who take advantage of customers’ lack of sophistication. These companies are easy to spot because most are domiciled (headquartered) in off-shore tax havens, rather than in the U.S., U.K., E.U., or Australia, which heavily regulate currency trading.

Unregulated brokers do the most damage when they operate a ‘dealing desk’ that takes the other side of a customer’s position and manipulate price through ‘requoting’ to trigger stops and force unexpected losses, especially in the off-hours when most active traders are asleep. It can also be difficult to get your money back when you choose to close an account at an unregulated broker.

Key Forex Trading Terms

Currency Pair: Currency pairs consist of two currencies, the base currency on the left (top) and the quoted currency on the right (bottom). EUR/USD is an example of a currency pair. When buying this pair, the trader buys the Euro and sells the U.S. Dollar. Alternatively, when selling this pair, the trader sells the Euro and buys the U.S. Dollar.

Major Pairs: Currency pairs can be sub-divided into major, cross, minor, and exotic pairs. Major pairs include the U.S. Dollar as the base or counter-currency, coupled with one of seven major currencies: EUR, CAD, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD, and NZD.  New traders focus on major pairs because they’re highly liquid and carry lower transaction costs through tighter spreads, limiting slippage.

Cross Pairs: Cross pairs consist of any two major currencies, except the U.S. Dollar. Unlike major pairs, cross pairs have higher transaction costs, higher volatility, and lower liquidity, increasing potential slippage. Examples of cross pairs include EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, and AUD/NZD.

Exchange Rate:  Exchange rate shows the price of a base currency, expressed in terms of a counter-currency (quoted currency). For example, if the EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.2500, €1.00 will cost $1.25. A rising exchange rate indicates the base currency is appreciating against the counter-currency while a falling exchange rate indicates the base currency is depreciating against the counter-currency.

Bid/Ask: Currency pairs have two exchange rates: the bid price and the ask price. The bid price identifies the current price that market participants can sell (short), while the ask price identifies the current price that market participants can buy. The bid price is always lower than the ask price and the difference between the two is called the spread.

Spread: The difference between the bid price and ask price. The spread marks one type of transaction cost for a trade and a profit source for the broker. This cost can greatly reduce profits or increase losses when engaged in high-frequency trading strategies, like scalping.

Pip:  Pip refers to ‘percentage in point’, or the smallest increment that a currency pair can rise or fall in price. One pip is equal to the fourth decimal of most currency pairs. For example, if the EUR/USD ask price is quoted at 1.2542 and rallies to 1.2548, the change is equal to six pips.

Hedge: A hedge marks a forex transaction intended to offset or protect another position from positive or negative exchange rate risk. Traders, investors, and institutions apply hedging techniques to enhance profits, limit losses, or protect investments.

Margin: Brokers lend money up to a multiple of account capital, called margin, so traders can take leveraged positions. Borrowed funds incur transaction costs through overnight lending rates. For example, a 30: 1 margin allows exposure up to 30 times higher than account capital.  Leveraged positions need to build profits in excess of borrowing costs or they lose money.

Leverage: Leverage allows traders to take positions in excess of account capital through broker margin lending. Taking substantial leverage is risky for new forex traders but an appropriate and required strategy for experienced forex traders.

Major Order Types

The forex trader opens a position through a buy or sell order, specifying whether to take the position ‘at the market’, or at a specified price. A market order will execute immediately at the current ask price for a buy or the current bid price for a sell. Both orders can incur slippage when prices are moving quickly, triggering trade executions at much higher or lower price levels.

A limit order can be used in place of a market order, specifying the price at which a) the limit order turns into a market order or b) the exact price of the entry. The order will be filled when the price is hit with the first technique, potentially incurring slippage, but the price can ‘skip over’ order with the second technique and never get filled. Similar limit order types, including stop and stop-loss orders, are used to open, manage, and close outstanding positions.

In summary:

  • Buy Stop: open a long position at the price higher than the current price or close a short position at the price lower than the current price.
  • Sell Stop: open a short position at the price lower than the current price or close a long position at the price higher than the current price.
  • Buy Limit: open a long position at the price lower than the current price or close a short position at the price higher than the current price.
  • Sell Limit: open a short position at the price higher than the current price or close a long position at the price lower than the current price.

Summary

The forex market has grown hugely popular with new traders and has never been easier to access. Learning the basics of forex trading isn’t overly complicated but choosing the right way to trade requires self-examination, with a realistic view of personality traits, available time, long-term goals, and current income. It’s a rewarding endeavor that benefits from dedication, patience, emotional control, and a willingness to build multiple skillsets and strategies over time.

Europe Opens With the Risk ON Mode

Futures start the new week on the front foot, with the SP500 being above crucial support on the 4555 points.

DAX is trying to draw a right shoulder of the iH&S formation.

USDJPY is defending the crucial support on the 112.8.

AUDNZD is escaping from the wedge to the upside, giving hope for another bullish wave.

GBPUSD is bouncing off the 38,2% Fibo and the lower line of the flag, in theory, that’s a good place for a proper buy signal.

EURPLN continues to drop after the false breakout above the 4.64.

The Mexican peso turned around the weakness it experienced at the end of last week and starts the new week with gains.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Traders Were Hoping for a Stronger Bounce I Guess…

So far, the recovery from Friday’s carnage is, let’s say, pretty mild. The same mild as apparently, the symptoms from the new coronavirus strain are. That information was about to drive today’s reversal but as you can see, traders are not encouraged to buy the dip at this point.

Gold is defending the mid-term up trendline.

SP500 bounced during the Asian session but the European one does not start well.

DAX is giving back almost all gains from the Asian session.

USDJPY continues the downswing after the breakout of the mid-term up trendline.

EURJPY drops after breaking crucial horizontal support.

AUDNZD continues a very technical movement by creating a wedge finishing the correction on the 38,2% Fibonacci.

USDCHF is trading lower after the false breakout from the symmetric triangle.

The Mexican Peso continues the weakening to USD and EUR despite quite a good opening after the weekend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR Starts a Correction, NZD Flexes Muscles

Gold stays strong and enjoys a rather flat correction, which indicates a bullish power.

Silver tests the neckline of the iH&S pattern and defends it with a nice upswing, which is also very optimistic.

EURNZD drops after testing the crucial dynamic support as the newest resistance.

AUDNZD drops sharply after the price makes the false breakout above three major resistances.

CHFJPY reaches 38,2% and bounces higher – a classical movement for price action traders.

USDCHF tests the upper line of the symmetric triangle pattern and creates a shooting star on the daily chart, which is rather negative.

EURUSD bounces from the 61,8% Fibonacci with a pin bar, this may be the start of a bullish correction.

EURPLN continues the upswing driven by the bullish breakout from the ascending triangle pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold, Stocks and USD Do Not Stop Gaining Momentum

Gold continues the upswing coming from the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

Silver is as well, but here we’re experiencing a flat correction in the form of a pennant.

DAX ends another flat rectangle and makes new all-time highs.

EURJPY breaks the last important Fibo line and enters the bear market.

AUDNZD breaches the horizontal resistance and aims higher.

CHFJPY drops, driven by a very handsome Head and Shoulders pattern.

USDCHF is inside of a giant symmetric triangle pattern. We’re currently aiming at its upper line.

EURUSD continues the long-term descend. The Head and Shoulders pattern is in play here as well.

GBPUSD is still relatively safe as here we are still inside of the flag formation.

EURPLN is breaking the upper line of the ascending triangle pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver and Gold Do Not Ease the Tempo

Definitely, the main story for most traders is the buy signal on precious metals. This is no surprise, and if you’ve been following Trader’s Edge, you’ll know that I’ve been expecting this for quite some time.

Gold created a very handsome inverse head and shoulders pattern, which created enough bullish momentum to break crucial horizontal and dynamic resistances. We may experience a pullback but the buy signal is here to stay.

Silver made an even better iH&S formation. We already broke the neckline of this pattern and the positive sentiment is all over the place.

SP500 looks positive and the correction from the previous week is probably only a memory now.

DAX is climbing higher, making stairs so flat horizontal corrections. New all-time highs are pretty close.

EURJPY is defending the last important support. Once it’s gone, any positive sentiment will be gone too.

EURNZD is showing us the power of the bearish trend and also the power of a false breakout.

AUDNZD is aiming few important resistances inside of a wedge pattern. This can end with a massive drop.

CHFJPY is showing us two head and shoulders patterns. One is already fulfilled. The second one’s in progress…

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Will Soon Test The Crucial Resistance

Indices start the new week on the front food, drawing another bullish candle on the daily chart. On the SP500 it starts to look a bit ridiculous to be honest with you.

Dax is more modest, inside of a mid-term trend continuation pattern. Of course breakout to the upside seems more probable.

I guess the star of today is gold, which is climbing higher towards the crucial resistance of 1835 USD/oz. This is where the great battle will probably take place.

Silver is also advancing higher, creating the right shoulder of the iH&S pattern

USDJPY is going lower after breaking the crucial horizontal support, which happened after the bearish escape from the triangle.

EURCHF has a promising triple bottom formation.

AUDNZD collapses after the beautiful Head and Shoulders pattern.

The same applies to the CHFJPY.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/NZD Bearish as Expected: No Bulls to Spoil de Party

AUD/NZD Technical Analysis

  • Downtrend continues
  • The retracement is over
  • We should see a move down
  • M L5 Pivot should be the target.

  1. The swing low
  2. Swing High
  3. X Cross of the trendline
  4. Entry
  5. Target

The price is bearish. After a bigger retracement, the AUD/NZD is making a move to the downside. We should have a continuation of a downtrend. It is clear that sellers are taking over. Bearish RBA stance further ignited bearish momentum. 1.0420 zone is bearish. This is where sellers are. Overnight momentum dropped the price. The main targets are W L4 camarilla – 1.0349 and W L5/ M L5 camarilla pivots 1.0305-1.0280.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

AUD/NZD Bearish Momentum Should Break the Support

AUD/NZD Technical Analysis

  • AUD/NZD is in a strong downtrend
  • We should see a bearish breakout
  • The AUD is weak
  • M L5 is the breakout target

  1. The swing number one
  2. Highest High
  3. Lower swing high
  4. Breakout level
  5. Target

The price is bearish. The latest RBA report was bearish. However, traders used momentum from bearish RBA to sell higher again. Breakout lower is expected. If the price manages to stay below 1.0416 and the daily candlestick makes a close below that level, we should expect the price to continue further down with bearish momentum. Targets will be 1.0384 followed by 1.0357 and 1.0260. The last target is the camarilla monthly L5 pivot. Selling the rallies is the way to go.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

New Zealand Raises Rates for First Time in Seven Years, More to Come

The 25 basis point rate hike marks the start of a tightening cycle that had been expected to begin in August, but was delayed after an outbreak of the coronavirus Delta variant and a lockdown that is continuing in its biggest city Auckland.

The increase in the cash rate to 0.50% by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had been forecast by all 20 economists polled by Reuters.

The New Zealand dollar briefly rose after the announcement but fell back to $0.6930, in line with broader market moves.

“It was pretty much in line with what everyone was picking,” said Jason Wong, senior market strategist at BNZ in Wellington. “We’re on a path towards a series of rate hikes and the market is well priced for that.”

Announcing its decision, the RBNZ said further removal of monetary policy stimulus was expected, with future moves depending on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment.

The rate hike puts New Zealand ahead of most other developed economy nations as central banks look to wind back emergency-level borrowing costs, although countries including Norway, the Czech Republic and South Korea  have already raised rates.

In neighbouring Australia, the central bank held interest rates at a record low 0.1% for an 11th straight month on Tuesday.

Economists expect the benchmark rate to reach 1.50% by the end of next year and 1.75% by the end of 2023, the Reuters poll showed.

CAPACITY STRAINS

The South Pacific nation has enjoyed a rapid economic recovery since a COVID-driven recession last year, partly because it eliminated coronavirus and reopened its economy before others.

But with its borders still shut, labour and goods shortages are pushing up inflation, as well as contributing to a surging property market, which has been driven by ultra-low interest rates.

“Demand shortfalls are less of an issue than the economy hitting capacity constraints…,” the RBNZ Committee noted in the minutes of the meeting.

The central bank said headline CPI inflation is expected to increase above 4% in the near-term but return towards its 2% midpoint over the medium term.

Recent COVID-19 restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, and economic activity will recover quickly when the measures are eased, it added.

But economists said the RBNZ may not race ahead with its hiking cycle in view of the current global uncertainty and the Delta variant outbreak dragging on in Auckland.

“(We) remain of the view that further rate hikes will be in 25 basis point increments rather than 50 basis point moves,” said Citibank economist Josh Williamson.

New Zealand abandoned its strategy of eliminating COVID-19 this week, with the government saying it will have to live with the virus and step up vaccination rates to control it.

In August, a central bank official confirmed it had also considered a 50-basis-point move that month, before taking a rate hike off the table altogether due to the lockdown.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Richard Pullin)

AUD/NZD Still in Downtrend but the Price is Retracing

1.0440-82 is the POC zone where the price could bounce up or down. If 1.0498 breaks to the upside we should see 1.05980. A move below 1.0440 should be targeting 1.0438 and 1.03178 at least. Below those levels we should see a new low of 1.0158.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

AUD/NZD Bearish Domination

As the price is breaking below Q L4 and M L3, we can expect a bearish continuation move. Watch for M L5 and Q L5 as targets 1.0250-1.0200. The main point of this config is that the price has broken through Q L4 which is the 3-month breakout. It is also below M L4 which signifies for a double breakout point to the full TP.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

NZD Is Ready to Flex Muscles Again

There’s an excellent long-term setup on the CHFJPY, where we are finishing a bearish correction. The price is bouncing from the combination of a horizontal and dynamic support and everything seems ready for another bullish wave.

The AUDNZD is in a short-term sideways movement but with a long-term negative outlook.

The NZDCHF is in a perfect flag formation. For the buy signal, we need to see the breakout of the upper line of this pattern.

The NZDJPY is in a similar situation but here we additionally have a bounce from the horizontal support. The sentiment is positive.

Silver uses every chance to go lower. Currently, we are testing the long-term support of a symmetric triangle. The outlook is rather negative.

The dollar Index broke the neckline of the giant inverted Head and Shoulders pattern and yesterday it defended it as a support with a hammer candle. That is definitely a positive and optimistic sign for buyers.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

New Zealand Central Bank Ends Bond Purchases, Paving Way for Possible Rate Hikes

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate at 0.25% but cut short a NZ$100 billion ($70 billion) bond buying programme, prompting local banks to bring forward calls for a rate rise to as early as August, which would put New Zealand at the forefront of countries to raise interest rates.

“The RBNZ has absolutely done enough hand-waving today to tick the ‘market-prep’ box for an August hike, with CPI and labour market data set to do the rest,” said Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ Bank.

The move comes amid nagging inflation worries globally, with U.S. inflation data rising by the most in 13 years in June, adding to uncertainty about whether such inflationary pressures are transitory.

New Zealand’s pandemic-free economy has been growing on the back of a housing boom and strong retail spending, raising concerns that it may get overheated pushing inflation above the bank’s target and squeeze the labour market.

First quarter GDP swept past forecasts, rising 1.6%. A survey last week showed the business outlook was now better than pre-COVID levels, and hiring constraints and inflationary pressures were starting to bite.

The RBNZ noted that in the absence of further economic shocks, consumer price inflation pressure is expected to build over time due to rising domestic capacity pressures and growing labour shortages.

“Members agreed that the major downside risks of deflation and high unemployment have receded,” the RBNZ said in minutes of the meeting.

“The (Monetary Policy) Committee agreed that a ‘least regrets’ policy now implied that the significant level of monetary support in place since mid-2020 could be reduced sooner.”

CHANGE OF TACK

A rate hike this year would make New Zealand the first developed economy to kick off policy tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia said earlier this month that it did not expect a rate rise before 2024.

The New Zealand dollar rose 1.1% after the announcement to $0.7017. Yields on two-year bonds surged 9 basis points to its high for this year at 1.668%.

“The RBNZ has clearly changed tack to decide that the time for reducing monetary stimulus is very near. The risk of inflation and employment undershooting the objectives has switched to the risk of overshooting should the current level of stimulus remain in place,” said Nick Tuffley, Chief Economist at ASB Bank.

The RBNZ slashed its interest rate to record lows in March last year and pumped billions of dollars in stimulus as the COVID-19 pandemic raged through the country and the globe.

New Zealand, however, managed to contain the spread of the virus, with the last community case of COVID-19 reported in February, allowing the economy to bounce back faster than most others.

At its meeting in May, the RBNZ had hinted at a hike in September 2022.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

($1 = 1.4253 New Zealand dollars)

(Reporting by Praveen Menon; Editing by Richard Pullin)

AUD/NZD Double Bullish Pennant Breakout and Continuation

The AUD/NZD is very bullish. We should see a bullish continuation. Double pattern has been broken and the price is proceeding further up.

Breakout above W H4 has made another strong move to the upside and now is all about either retest or continuation. On a retest of 1.0835 zone or 1.0910 I expect a continuation up. Even if the market drops to 1.0900 it will be a consolidation before a move up. Final target is 1.10055. It’s buy the dips scenario.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

Price Patterns Show Australian Dollar Strength Against NZD

The AUD/NZD has made a bullish breakout above the ascending wedge pattern on the daily chart. An uptrend is expected to continue higher soon. Let’s review the key patterns in this article.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

AUD/NZD 26.03.2021 daily chart

The AUD/NZD is in a long-term consolidation, sideways price action. But the daily chart is developing interesting price patterns.

The Australian Dollar seems ready for more strength, which is useful information when trading AUD or NZD currency crosses.

For instance, it could be to look for NZD weakness and AUD strength when trading against the USD, EUR, GBP, or JPY. Or of course, trading the AUD/NZD might be an option as well.

  1. The AUD/NZD seems to be building a larger ABC pattern (purple – or perhaps 123).
  2. The wave B (purple) and wave 2 (pink) seem to be completed.
  3. The bullish breakout could indicate a wave 3 (pink).
  4. A bullish breakout (green arrows) above the Wizz 7 level and -27.2% Fibonacci target could indicate a push higher towards the -61.8% Fibonacci level.
  5. Only a deep retracement below the previous top and below the support zone would place the uptrend on hold (orange button) or invalidate it (red button).

On the 1 hour chart, price action is showing a strong push up (purple boxes). This is typical for a wave 3 (orange).

  1. The current pullback is choppy and corrective which is also usual for a wave 4 (orange).
  2. Price action could make an immediate breakout (blue arrow).
  3. Or price action could retest the shallow Fibonacci retracement levels again. A bullish bounce is expected there (green arrows).
  4. A break below the 50% makes the current wave 4 less likely.
  5. A break below the 61.8% Fib makes it invalid.
  6. The targets are located at 1.11 and 1.12.

AUD/NZD 26.03.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

FX Weekly March 7

Currency markets this week remain in pivotal positions however added to the week is NZD/USD at 0.7139, 

GBP/CAD 1.7484

AUD/USD 0.7652

USD/CAD 1.2771,

CHF/JPY 116.65

AUD/NZD 1.0765

AUD/CAD 0.9768 and 

NZD/CAD 0.9113

Ranges are wide this week and markets are easily capable to handle the big moves expected. Watch in particular EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD then GBP/USD. 

AUD/USD and NZD/USD topside pairs NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD both broke lower and signifies its a matter of time before AUD/USD and NZD/USD break and trade much lower. Bottom pairs AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF are both overbought and assists to further downside to AUD/USD and NZD/USD. 

GBP/AUD last week’s vital points were located from 1.8130 to 1.7885. This week 1.8130 to 1.7905. GBP/AUD broke 1.7885 and traded 80 pips lower. GBP/AUD correlates to GBP/USD at – 64% and caution is warranted to trade GBP/AUD.

GBP/NZD last week reported ranges from 1.9318 to 1.9176. This week 1.9318 to 1.9188. GBP/NZD last week first  broke 1.9176 to trade 82 pips to 1.9094. GBP/NZD then traded above 1.9176 to achieve 1.9415 highs and closed at 1.9290 vs last week’s close  at 1.9244. GBP/NZD correlation to GBP/USD run -43% and caution to this week’s trade. 

EUR/USD and all EUR pairs are deeply oversold and matches to richter scale overbought to USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Moves lower to USD/JPY and USD/CHF are corrective unless 105.70 and 0.9064 breaks lower. EUR/USD higher is corrective unless 1.2020 and 1.2034  trades higher. Weeks ago was reported EUR/USD targets at 1.1800’s and 1.1700’s. 

JPY cross pairs represent the best market moves for most pip gains beginning with GBP/JPY as all JPY cross pairs are overbought and current prices are miles to high. 

Last post was shown GBP/JPY true moving averages and the 20 day is located at 148.38 then the 50 day at 145.26. The 20 day average matches the 10 year average at 148.36 and off by 2 pips. A break at 148.00’s then GBP/JPY larger range becomes 148.38 to 142.30. 

Watch EUR/CAD higher this week, EUR/GBP oversold and GBP/USD overbought. 

Next 2 and 10 year yields, levels, ranges and targets. Inflation as a 3 month interest rate and its relationship to the 2 year yield. 

AUD/NZD Bearish Break Offers Wide Open Space to Fib Levels

The AUD/NZD has been in range for more than 5 year on the monthly chart (price action hitting the 21 ema zone). Price is now showing a potential bearish breakout with 100-300 pips space.

But the Fibonacci levels could also act as support zones… Let’s review the monthly and 4 hour charts.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

AUD/NZD Monthly chart 30.11.20

The AUD/NZD seems to be building a large ABC (blue) pattern. Although this wave outlook is fragile to the choppy consolidation zone.

If a larger wave C (blue) does occur, then price is expected to make a bullish bounce at the Fibonacci retracement levels. Price should also break above the resistance trend line (orange) if a 5 wave pattern emerges (pink).

A break below the bottom invalidates (red circle) the bullish outlook. This confirms a bearish breakout below the range and also a full downtrend.

On the 4 hour chart, price could have completed a wave 5 (purple) of a larger ABC (pink) pattern at the -27.2% Fibonacci target (green box) and 50% Fib on the monthly chart.

  • But price action must break above the 21 ema zone and then the 38.2% resistance Fib to confirm that (blue arrows).
  • A bearish breakout below the support zone (green line) or a bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci zone could confirm the bearish outlook.

It remains likely that price action will move lower to test at least the 61.8% Fib at 1.04 if not the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0220 on the monthly chart. Also, the -61.8% Fibonacci targets form a confluence at 1.0310.

AUD/NZD 4 hour chart 30.11.20

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

American Indices With a Very Powerful Bullish Setup

Nasdaq and SP500 made huge inverse head and shoulders patterns and are advancing significantly higher

FTSE trying to break the upper line of the wedge

EURUSD climbed back above the 1.177 support

AUDUSD climbed back above 50 and 61,8% Fibonacci

GBPUSD broke the neckline of the iH&S formation

AUDNZD is testing major horizontal support

Gold broke major long-term dynamic resistance

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.