AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 0.7750

AUD/USD Video 15.04.21.

Australian Dollar Continues To Move Higher Against U.S. Dollar

AUD/USD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at 0.7750 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to get to the test of the nearest support level at 91.50. A move below the support at 91.50 will open the way to the test of the next support at 91.30 which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

Today, Australia reported that Unemployment Rate declined from 5.8% in February to 5.6% in March compared to analyst consensus of 5.7%. Employment Change report indicated that employment increased by 70,700 in March compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 35,000. Stronger-than-expected reports provided additional support to the Australian dollar.

Foreign exchange market traders will soon have a chance to take a look at the latest employment reports from the U.S. Analysts expect that Initial Jobless Claims declined from 744,000 to 700,000 while Continuing Jobless Claims decreased from 3.73 million to 3.7 million.

Traders will also focus on the latest Retail Sales data from the U.S. Retail Sales are projected to grow by 5.9% month-over-month in March due to the positive impact of the new round of economic stimulus.

Technical Analysis

aud usd april 15 2021

AUD/USD managed to settle above the resistance at 0.7720 and is trying to settle above the next resistance level at 0.7750.

In case this attempt is successful, AUD/USD will head towards the resistance at 0.7775. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 0.7800. If AUD/USD manages to settle above this level, it will move towards the resistance at 0.7820.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 0.7720 will likely serve as the first support level for AUD/USD. If AUD/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support which is located at 0.7700. A move below the support at 0.7700 will open the way to the test of the support at the 50 EMA at 0.7680.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Canadian Dollar Flexes Muscles

The GBPJPY is in a triple top formation and a divergence on MACD and RSI. There’s a very promising short but before that happens sellers need to break the neckline of this pattern.

The AUDCAD broke the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation and later tested it as a closest support.

The EURCAD bounced off a crucial horizontal resistance with two shooting stars. That’s usually very pessimistic.

The Canadian Dollar Index is in a false breakout from the head and shoulders formation. That is promising for the CAD.

The USDCAD bounced off long-term down trendlines and broke the lower line of the rectangle.

The USDJPY is possibly in a very dangerous bearish reversal.

The AUDUSD denied the long-term sell signal and is aiming lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over .7728, Weakens Under .7690

The Australian Dollar is trading lower Thursday, giving back earlier gains after touching a three-week top as upbeat data suggested the Australian economy had grown strongly last quarter. Prices began to retreat on the notion, however, that a stronger labor market would bring the Reserve Bank (RBA) closer to raising interest rates.

At 05:56 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7719, down 0.0004 or -0.05%.

The Aussie received a boost shortly after the release of a quarterly report showing 70,700 jobs were added in March, twice the market forecast, while unemployment dropped to a one-year low at 5.6%.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at .7745 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through .7586.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to .7826 is the primary upside target. Sellers could come in on the first test of this zone. This area is also controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The short-term range is .7849 to .7532. The AUD/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at .7690 to .7728.

The minor range is .7532 to .7745. Its 50% level at .7638 is potential support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at .7728.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7728 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at .7745 should trigger a surge into the main retracement zone at .7770 to .7826. Look for sellers on the first test of this zone. Taking out .7826 could trigger the start of an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7728 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is .7690. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in following a test of this level.

Taking out .7690 could trigger an acceleration into the minor 50% level at .7638.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S Jobless Claims and Retail Sales Put the Greenback in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quieter start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action this morning.

For the Aussie Dollar

Employment figures were in focus this morning.

According to the ABS,

  • The unemployment rate fell from 5.8% to 5.6% in March, while the participation rate rose from 66.1% to 66.3%.
  • In March, employment increased by 70,700 following an 88,700 rise in February. Economists had forecast a more modest 35,000 increase.
  • Full employment declined by 20,800, however, partially reversing an 89,100 rise from February.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77377 to $0.77253 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.09% to $0.7721.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.05% to ¥108.88 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.10% to $0.7148.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized April inflation figures for Germany, France, and Italy are due out later today.

Barring a marked upward revision from prelim figures, however, we don’t expect the numbers to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, news updates on COVID-19 and vaccination rates will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1975.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats leaves market sentiment towards the latest easing of lockdown measures in focus along with next steps.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.03% to $1.3775.

Across the Pond

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. Retail sales, jobless claims, and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers are in focus.

Industrial production, business inventories, and NY Empire State manufacturing numbers are also due out. We don’t expect these stats to have an impact on the broader market, however.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 91.671.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Manufacturing sales figures for February are due out later today.

Barring particularly dire numbers, however, we don’t expect too much influence from the stats.

Expect market risk sentiment and economic data from the U.S to have a greater impact market risk sentiment and the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.01% to C$1.2520 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

April 15th 2021: 91.60 Daily Support Makes an Entrance on the US Dollar Index

Charts provided by Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

March carved out a third consecutive loss, extending the 2021 retracement slide by 2.8 percent. Recent underperformance, as you can see, pulled EUR/USD into the upper range of demand at 1.1857-1.1352.

April’s 2.8 percent rebound from the aforesaid demand thus far shifts attention to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641). Extending lower, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Dollar action navigated to three-week troughs on Wednesday. Interestingly, though, the US dollar index (ticker: DXY) shook hands with 91.60 support.

EUR/USD, following Tuesday’s one-sided advance north of the 200-day simple moving average (currently circling 1.1896), crossed swords with resistance at 1.1966 Wednesday. Follow-through upside here shines the technical spotlight on resistance at 1.2058.

Despite the 2021 retracement slide, trend studies reveal the pair has been higher since early 2020.

RSI analysis has the value hovering within striking distance of resistance at 60.30. This follows a trendline resistance breach last week (taken from the peak 75.97) as well as a bullish failure swing.

H4 timeframe:

Quasimodo resistance at 1.1937 stepped aside in recent trading (now potential support) and unlocked upside towards resistance at 1.1990. Upstream, interesting supply resides at 1.2101-1.2059 (sits on top of daily resistance at 1.2058).

H1 timeframe:

Supply from 1.1956-1.1935 had its upper side penetrated on Wednesday, with subsequent movement retesting the zone as demand and holding. 1.20 is seen as potential resistance on the H1 chart, with additional bullish flow targeting resistance at 1.2026 (previous Quasimodo support).

Modest RSI bearish divergence materialised around overbought space. The value currently circles the 60.00 region.

Observed levels:

The 1.20 figure based on the H1 and H4 resistance from 1.1990 forms potential confluence to be mindful of.

A H1 close north of 1.20, however, unbolts a possible bullish scenario, targeting H1 resistance at 1.2026, followed by H4 supply at 1.2101-1.2059 and daily resistance at 1.2058.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s interesting was February also came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776 high), sheltered under supply from 0.8303-0.8082.

March subsequently erased 1.5% over the Month and probed February’s lows. Follow-through selling shines light on demand at 0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply).

With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

The Australian dollar outperformed against a broadly softer US dollar on Wednesday, adding more than 1 percent on the session and concluding at tops. Following a period of indecision around the 0.7563 February low, aided by a 1.272% Fib extension at 0.7545, recent enthusiasm elbowed resistance into the spotlight at 0.7817.

Trend studies reveal the unit has been higher since early 2020.

Momentum, as measured by the RSI oscillator, climbed the 50.00 centreline after discovering a floor off channel support, taken from the low 43.70.

H4 timeframe:

Trendline resistance, extended from the high 0.8007, as well as supply at 0.7696-0.7715, came under fire yesterday. Quasimodo resistance at 0.7800, therefore, deserves notice as the next potential ceiling, closely stationed by demand-turned supply from 0.7848-0.7867.

H1 timeframe:

Supply at 0.7747-0.7734 made an entrance amid US hours on Wednesday, following a decisive advance through 0.77 offers. Price action traders will note this movement established a demand area at 0.7679-0.7695

North of 0.7747-0.7734, the path appears relatively clear to 0.78.

Resistance at 80.85, plotted within overbought space on the RSI oscillator, welcomed the value as price tested supply. As you can see, noted resistance has so far held form, with the value on course to potentially exit overbought territory (considered a bearish signal).

Observed levels:

Scope to advance on the daily timeframe until resistance at 0.7817 places a question mark on H1 supply at 0.7747-0.7734. This, coupled with H4 action overthrowing supply at 0.7696-0.7715, highlights a bullish market for the time being.

A retest of the H4 supply-turned demand at 0.7696-0.7715 may entice dip-buyers, particularly if H1 greets 0.77.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

April, currently down 1.6 percent, is seen retesting the breached descending resistance, movement that may eventually entice bullish flow. With respect to long-term upside targets, supply at 126.10-122.66 calls for attention.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

The greenback eked out modest losses against the Japanese yen Wednesday, consequently extending downside for a third consecutive session.

Despite supply at 110.94-110.29 limiting upside since the beginning of April, the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned support questions further selling. Consequently, the collection of lows around 108.36ish (green oval) could limit downside moves.

Structure beyond said lows, however, shows demand coming in at 107.58-106.85 alongside trendline support, etched from the low 102.59.

In terms of trend on the daily scale, we have been decisively higher since early 2021.

RSI action journeyed beneath support at 57.00, and recently dipped a toe under the 50.00 centreline. This implies momentum remains to the downside for the time being.

H4 timeframe:

As noted in previous writing, supply at 109.97-109.72 stood firm in early trade this week. Thanks to continued weakness, this brings light to a Fib cluster between 108.44 and 108.66 (blue), glued to the upper side of demand at 108.31-108.50 (note the area also holds lows highlighted on the daily scale around 108.36).

H1 timeframe:

Early hours on Wednesday dropped through 109 support and pencilled in lows a few pips ahead of demand at 108.60-108.71 (shares a connection with the H4 Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66). Subsequent action observed a 109 retest, which held as resistance.

RSI movement rebounded from oversold space, following the formation of an AB=CD pattern (black arrows). This led the value back to the 50.00 centreline, which formed resistance and informed traders that momentum faces southbound.

Observed levels:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

Having noted the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned possible support, any selling may be short-lived. As such, overtaking lows around 108.36 on the daily scale, according to chart studies, is unlikely.

In light of where we’re coming from on the monthly timeframe, H1 demand at 108.60-108.71 is likely on the radar for traders, an area plotted just north of H4 demand at 108.31-108.50 (and shares space with the H4 Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66).

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161).

February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. Contained within February’s range, however, March snapped a five-month winning streak and formed what candlestick enthusiasts call an inside candle pattern (represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility). A breakout lower in subsequent months would generally be viewed as a bearish signal.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged from previous analysis.

Sterling against the US dollar gathered traction Wednesday, though ended the session considerably off session peaks.

The technical arrangement present on the daily chart remains unchanged. Quasimodo support at 1.3609 is seen, a level connected with a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3617, as well as 1.618% and 1.272% Fib extension levels at 1.3614 and 1.3607, respectively.

With reference to trend, GBP/USD has been trending higher since early 2020.

The RSI failed to find grip north of the 50.00 centreline last week, though at the same time is reluctant to explore levels south of 40.00.

H4 timeframe:

Largely unchanged from previous analysis.

Action out of the H4 chart remains focussed on support at 1.3680, as well as trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.3670.

Additional areas to be cognisant of are 1.3852 resistance and Quasimodo support mentioned above on the daily timeframe at 1.3609.

H1 timeframe:

The 1.38 figure, surrounded by a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3809 and a 50.0% retracement level at 1.3793, delivered resistance on Wednesday and guided the currency pair back to 1.3750 support.

External levels to be aware of on the H1 scale are the 100-period simple moving average at 1.3740, and a demand-turned supply base residing at 1.3853-1.3869, sharing chart space with a number of Fib studies between 1.3870 and 1.3847.

Interestingly, RSI flow greeted trendline support, taken from the low 27.58, following an earlier rejection from overbought terrain.

Observed levels:

With higher timeframe levels showing limited support and resistance nearby, GBP/USD traders are likely monitoring 1.3750 support on the H1, along with 1.3809-1.3793 resistance.

Another area likely on the technical radar is H1 supply at 1.3853-1.3869. Not only does this base align with numerous Fib levels, the area also joins H4 resistance at 1.3852.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Breaks 50 Day EMA

The Aussie dollar has broken above the 50 day EMA during trading on Wednesday to clear the 50 day EMA, something it has not been able to do for quite some time. Having said that, when you look at the longer-term charts there are still a lot of concerns just above and quite frankly there are some bearish signals coming out of the Chinese equity markets. If that is going to pick up steam, that will certainly work against the value of the Aussie sooner or later. Because of this, I do think that you need to be very cautious about buying this pair based upon this sudden move.

AUD/USD Video 15.04.21

It is worth noting that there has been a shooting star for both February and March in this market, and that does suggest that there could be some trouble ahead. That being said, I think what we are looking at here is a scenario where traders are trying to discern whether or not there is a catalyst to finally break above the 0.80 level above. That is massive resistance on the monthly charts, so it should be paid close attention to. Ultimately, when you see a couple of shooting stars in a row on the monthly chart, you should take notice and realize it does not happen that often.

Do not get me wrong, I am not expecting the Australian dollar to completely fall apart, but I think a pullback, bigger than the one that we have seen, is a very real possibility at this point. Obviously, you will want to scale into a position to the downside. However, if we break above the 0.78 level then I think we will make another run at the 0.80 level. I would expect more noise.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Australian Dollar On The Rise

Gold traders are fighting to keep the bullish dream alive and they’re trying to create the right shoulder of the Inverse head and shoulders pattern. A breakout of the neckline can possibly bring serious bullish sentiment.

Silver bounced from a crucial support on the 24.8 USD/oz.

Brent oil broke the mid-term down trendline and is aiming higher.

The Dow Jones is in the third wedge pattern in a row. The previous two ended in an upswing.

The EURUSD climbed back above the 23.6% Fibonacci.

The GBPUSD wasted a great chance for an upswing and failed to break the neckline of the inversed head and shoulders pattern.

The AUDUSD on the other hand, is very close to activating the buy signal from its own inversed head and shoulders formation.

The USDCAD is locked in a tight rectangle below major down trendlines.

The GBPAUD is in a sweet long-term sell signal, after the price created a head and shoulders pattern at the end of the wedge. A breakout of the lower line of the wedge opens a way towards new mid-term lows.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 0.7675

AUD/USD Video 14.04.21.

Australian Dollar Moves Higher Against U.S. Dollar

AUD/USD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at the 50 EMA at 0.7675 while the U.S. dollar is moving lower against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently managed to get below the support at the 50 EMA at 91.80 and made an attempt to develop additional downside momentum. This attempt was not successful, and the U.S. Dollar Index moved back to the 50 EMA level. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets back above the 50 EMA, it will head towards the resistance at the 92 level which will be bearish for AUD/USD.

Today, Australia reported that Consumer Confidence Index improved from 111.8 in March to 118.8 in April compared to analyst consensus of 113. The report provided additional support to Australian dollar which was boosted by strong commodity markets and falling U.S. Treasury yields.

Traders will remain focused on the dynamics of U.S. Treasury yields which have significant impact on the foreign exchange market. Currently, the yield of 10-year Treasuries is trying to settle back above the 20 EMA at 1.635%. If this attempt is successful, it will have a good chance to develop additional upside momentum which will be bullish for the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

aud usd april 14 2021

AUD/USD managed to settle above the 20 EMA at 0.7650 and is trying to settle above the next significant resistance level at the 50 EMA at 0.7675. In case this attempt is successful, AUD/USD will move towards the resistance at 0.7700.

In case AUD/USD gets above the resistance at 0.7700, it will head towards the next resistance level which is located at 0.7720. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 0.7750.

On the support side, the previous resistance at the 20 EMA at 0.7650 will likely serve as the first support level for AUD/USD although AUD/USD may also get some support at 0.7665.

If AUD/USD declines below the 20 EMA, it will head towards the support at 0.7635. A move below this level will push AUD/USD towards the major support level at 0.7600.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Ready to Challenge Short-Term Retracement Zone at .7691 – .7728

The Australian Dollar is edging higher on Wednesday as investors shrugged-off stronger-than-expected U.S. Consumer Inflation data. The news, which was likely priced-in for weeks, failed to rattle investors, sending Treasury yields lower and undermining the U.S. Dollar.

In other news, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index surged to an 11-year peak in April, defying worries about the government’s vaccine rollout. That followed a strong survey of businesses out on Tuesday.

At 07:55 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7657, up 0.0031 or +0.40%.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trade through .7677 reaffirmed the uptrend. A move through .7586 will change the main trend to down.

The new minor range is .7532 to .7686. Its 50% level at .7609 is new support.

The short-term range is .7849 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7691 to .7728 the first resistance area.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to .7826 is another upside target. It’s also controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .7691.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7691 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into the short-term Fibonacci level at .7728. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into .7770 to .7826.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7690 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor pivot at .7609. This is the last potential support before the .7586 main bottom.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Analysis, An Important Breakout Is Finally Here

The US Inflation data once again beat expectations and brings anxiety to the market, slacking the US Dollar index. DXY lost 0.28% yesterday and is down 0.12% today, while commodities like gold and silver are looking to rally. The Australian Dollar which is mainly correlated to Gold is on the main spot light.

US MoM inflation data as per March closed at 1.6% which is above the anticipated 1.5%, CPI YoY as per March closed at 0.3% above the anticipated 0.2%. Annual inflation rate in March exposed 2.6% which is far beyond the FED’s desired 2%. Hence, investors worry that the FED may reconsider the interest rates sooner than expected.

AUD/USD started the month positively, adding 1.06% to its value, as a currency correlated to the price of Gold and Gold is considered as an “inflation rescuer” for investors, it is fair to say that AUD/USD will continue gaining through the month. Australian Consumer sentiment index in April surged to 6.2% (previous 2.6%) as consumers tend to show confidence in the economic growth of Australia.

The bullish continuation of AUD/USD is confirmed by the breakout from the ending diagonal and the downtrend channel which the pair was following since February 25.

AUD/USD quote on Overbit

MACD remains bullish on the Aussie, whereas RSI is approaching an overbought zone and the pair is testing the 200MA as resistance. If the Aussie remains above the $0.76635, it will continue the uptrend and test resistances at $0.77685 and $0.78300.

 

Economic Data and Central Bank Commentary Keep the EUR and Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and the Aussie Dollar were in focus this morning, with the RBNZ also in action.

For the Japanese Yen

Core machinery orders were in focus this morning.

In February, core machinery orders slid by 8.5% month-on-month, following a 4.5% decline in January. Year-on-year, orders were down by 7.1%. In January, core machinery orders had been up by 1.5%.

Economists had forecast core machinery orders to increase by 2.8% in the month and to rise by 2.3% year-on-year.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.927 to ¥108.861 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.18% to ¥108.86 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Kiwi Dollar

While there were no material stats to consider, the RBNZ delivered its April monetary policy decision this morning.

In line with market expectations, the RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25%.

Salient points from the RBNZ Rate Statement included:

  • The global growth outlook has improved, though the recover in growth is uneven across countries.
  • COVID-19 mutations continue to provide uncertainty over the economic outlook.
  • Economic activity in NZ slowed over the summer before a rebound in domestic activity.
  • December quarter GDP was weaker than expected and more recent indicators suggest that momentum has reduced.
  • Members noted that supply chain disruptions could constrain economic domestic economic activity near-term.
  • Business credit growth and investment also remains subdued.
  • New government housing policies will likely dampen house price growth. It may take time, however, to see any implications on price inflation and employment.
  • Near-term price increases are likely and these will see headline inflation exceed 2% for a period. Price increases are likely to be temporary, however.
  • Employment is below its maximum sustainable level and expect employment to increase gradually.
  • Overall risks to the economic outlook remain balanced, supported by ongoing stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies.
  • The Committee agreed to maintain its current stimulatory monetary settings until it is confident that consumer price inflation will be sustained at the 2% per annum target midpoint, and that employment is at or above its maximum sustainable level.
  • A prolonged period of time is expected to pass before these conditions are met.
  • The Committee agreed that it was prepared to lower the Official Cash Rate if required.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70580 to $0.70556 in response to the rate statement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.14% to $0.7063.

For the Aussie Dollar

Consumer confidence was in focus following business confidence figures on Tuesday.

In April, the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose by 6.2% to 118.8, its highest level since Aug-2010. In March, the index had risen by 2.6% to 111.8.

According to the latest Westpac Report,

  • Family finances vs a year ago jumped by 13.4% to 103.5, with family finances next 12-months up by 5.4% to 117.6.
  • Economic conditions next 12-months increased by 10.3% to 125.5, with conditions next 5-years up by 4.1% to 123.8.
  • Significantly, the economic conditions next 12-months was up 133.8% year-on-year.
  • The Unemployment Expectations Index rose by 5.6% to 118.4, however, with time to buy a dwelling falling by 7.9%.
  • Time to buy a major household item slipped by 0.2% in the month, while up 61.9% year-on-year.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.76455 to $0.76445 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.08% to $0.7647.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Industrial production figures for the Eurozone are due out along with finalized inflation figures for Spain.

Expect February industrial production figures to have a greater influence on the EUR.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde could also move the dial in a scheduled speech later in the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.09% to $1.1959.

For the Pound

It’s a quieter day ahead on the economic calendar.

4th quarter labor productivity figures are due out later today. With the UK government easing COVID-19 restrictions, however, we don’t expect the numbers to have an impact.

Away from the economic calendar, expect COVID-19 news to influence, however.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.07 to $1.3759.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Import and export price index figures are due out later today. We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers.

Any FOMC member commentary and chatter from Capitol Hill will need monitoring, however.

FED Chair Powell is due to speak and will garner plenty of interest late in the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 91.789.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats from Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil inventory numbers and market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.2542 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

April 14th 2021: Dollar Index Extends Bearish Presence South of 200-Day SMA Following Inflation Data

Charts provided by Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

March carved out a third consecutive loss, extending the 2021 retracement slide by 2.8 percent. Recent underperformance, as you can see, pulled EUR/USD into the upper range of demand at 1.1857/1.1352.

April’s 1.8 percent rebound thus far shifts attention to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641). Extending lower, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Trading primarily as a function of USD weakness, EUR/USD movement adopted a bullish phase Tuesday and consequently recorded fresh multi-week peaks. Resistance at 1.1966 is next in line, with a break unmasking additional resistance at 1.2058.

The 200-day simple moving average continues to echo supportive structure, following an upside breach in the second half of last week.

Despite the 2021 retracement slide, trend studies reveal the pair has been higher since early 2020.

RSI analysis shows upside momentum continues to gather traction, after the value swept through trendline resistance (taken from the peak 75.97) and formed a bullish failure swing (a sign of a potential reversal). Resistance is now in sight at 60.30.

H4 timeframe:

Following 1.1870 support serving well since early last week, Quasimodo resistance at 1.1937 came under fire on Tuesday, movement emphasising bullish intent.

With 1.1937 potentially out of the picture, bullish bets may take aim at resistance from 1.1990.

H1 timeframe:

The 100-period simple moving average at 1.1895, once again, delivered dynamic support on Tuesday. This led to a one-sided advance north of 1.19 to supply at 1.1956/1.1935.

1.1974/1.1965 supply is next in the firing range should buyers maintain a bullish trajectory today. Traders, however, are also urged to pencil in the possibility of a 1.1919 support retest.

Thanks to recent upside, RSI movement rebounded from trendline support, taken from the low 20.50, and has made its way to within touching distance of overbought space and RSI resistance plotted at 78.97.

Observed levels:

The technical view from the monthly scale implies a bullish theme could develop, given we’re coming from demand at 1.1857/1.1352. However, buyers face daily resistance at 1.1966, closely shadowed by H4 resistance at 1.1990.

With the above in view, a short-term bullish scenario may materialise today, taking out H1 supply at 1.1956/1.1935 and testing H1 supply at 1.1974/1.1965. It is the latter zone that sellers could make an appearance from, given this area shares chart space with daily resistance at 1.1966. Any bullish moves north of here, nevertheless, buyers could reach for the key figure 1.20 (and H4 resistance at 1.1990).

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s interesting was February also came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776 high), sheltered under supply from 0.8303/0.8082.

March subsequently erased 1.5% over the Month and probed February’s lows. Should follow-through selling develop, demand is in view at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply).

With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged analysis from previous report.

Since 25th March, buyers and sellers have been squaring off around the 0.7563 February low, aided by a 1.272% Fib extension at 0.7545. Tuesday concluded in the shape of a bullish outside reversal (similar formation to a bullish engulfing pattern, though focuses on the range of the previous candle rather than the real body).

Resistance remains at 0.7817; a dip beneath 0.7563 brings light to demand from 0.7453/0.7384 (dovetailing closely with a 100% Fib expansion at 0.7465 and a 1.618% Fib extension at 0.7460). Technicians will also note the 200-day simple moving average circling nearby at 0.7408.

Trend studies reveal the unit has been higher since early 2020.

As for the RSI oscillator, the value remains reinforced off channel support, taken from the low 43.70, and nears the underside of 50.00.

H4 timeframe:

Declining US Treasury yields pressuring the buck lower Tuesday provided AUD/USD support, with enough force to bring light to trendline resistance, extended from the high 0.8007.

Also of technical importance is resistance at 0.7668, followed by supply at 0.7696/0.7715 and a 50.0% retracement at 0.7689.

Any decisive downside shines the technical spotlight on Quasimodo support at 0.7529, a level joined closely by a trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 0.7805.

H1 timeframe:

Heading into the early hours of US trading Tuesday, price movement speared through 0.76 to shake hands with a Fib cluster around 0.7586. Strong bids soaking up sell-stops south of 0.76 lifted the currency pair north of the 100-period simple moving average to 0.7650ish, adding 0.3 percent on the day.

Limited (obvious) resistance shifts technical interest to the 0.77 figure, a psychological base sheltered under supply drawn from 0.7716/0.7707 (an important decision point to initially push below 0.77).

Action out of the RSI oscillator reveals the value testing space just south of overbought territory, threatening moves to resistance at 80.85.

Observed levels:

Largely unchanged analysis from previous report.

From the bigger picture, the lack of buying interest from the 0.7563 February low on the daily scale may be due to monthly price pencilling in a bearish candlestick formation in February ahead of notable structure. This indicates sellers could eventually topple 0.7563 and challenge daily demand at 0.7453/0.7384.

In conjunction with higher timeframes, the H4 trendline resistance as well as H4 resistance at 0.7668 may be on the radar for short-term sellers today.

Should the unit spike to 0.77 on the H1, however, sellers may also show interest here as the psychological level aligns with H4 supply at 0.7696/0.7715.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

April, currently down 1.5 percent, is seen retesting the breached descending resistance, movement that may entice bullish flow. With respect to long-term upside targets, supply at 126.10/122.66 calls for attention.

Daily timeframe:

The US dollar notched up a second consecutive decline against the Japanese yen Tuesday, in line with US Treasury yields also dipping lower (the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield ended lower by nearly 3 percent).

Despite supply at 110.94/110.29 limiting upside since the beginning of April, the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned support places a question mark on further selling. Therefore, technically speaking, the collection of lows around 108.36ish (green oval) could limit downside moves.

Structure beyond said lows, however, shows demand coming in at 107.58/106.85 alongside trendline support, etched from the low 102.59.

In terms of trend on the daily scale, we have been decisively higher since early 2021.

RSI action journeyed beneath support at 57.00 in recent trading, implying that momentum remains firmly to the downside for the time being.

H4 timeframe:

Supply at 109.97/109.72 has stood firm in early trade this week, throwing light on a 78.6% Fib level at 108.95. Breaking south of here also shines light on demand at 108.31/108.50, an area not only joined by a Fib cluster between 108.44 and 108.66 (blue), it also holds lows highlighted on the daily scale around 108.36.

H1 timeframe:

Any USD/JPY upside was swiftly capped by the 100-period simple moving average on Tuesday, currently circling 109.47. Technical elements now show demand plotted at 108.86/108.98, with subsequent bearish flow highlighting demand at 108.60/108.71.

In addition to price action, RSI flow dipped a toe in oversold waters in recent hours, establishing an AB=CD formation (black arrows).

Observed levels:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

Having noted the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned possible support, any selling may be short-lived. As such, overtaking lows around 108.36 on the daily scale, according to chart studies, is unlikely.

In light of where we’re coming from on the monthly timeframe, the 78.6% Fib level on the H4 at 108.95 and H1 demand at 108.86/108.98 could deliver a platform for buyers to work with.

H1 demand at 108.60/108.71 is also likely on the radar for traders, an area plotted just north of H4 demand at 108.31/108.50 (and shares space with the H4 Fib cluster at 108.44/108.66).

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161).

February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. Contained within February’s range, however, March snapped a five-month winning streak and formed what candlestick enthusiasts call an inside candle pattern (represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility). A breakout lower in subsequent months would generally be viewed as a bearish signal.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

Sterling wrapped up Tuesday off worst levels against a broadly weaker greenback; GBP/USD has staged a moderate comeback so far this week off March 25th Lows at 1.3670.

The technical arrangement present on the daily chart displays a Quasimodo support at 1.3609, a level connected with a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3617, and 1.618% as well as 1.272% Fib extension levels at 1.3614 and 1.3607, respectively.

With reference to trend, GBP/USD has been trending higher since early 2020.

The RSI failed to find acceptance north of the 50.00 centreline last week, though at the same time is reluctant to explore levels south of 40.00.

H4 timeframe:

Shorter-term flow on the H4 chart has support in play at 1.3680, delivering a floor to work with on Monday. Upside attempts have so far been limited by a 38.2% Fib level at 1.3763, as well as trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.3670.

External areas to be cognisant of are 1.3852 resistance and the Quasimodo support mentioned above on the daily timeframe at 1.3609.

H1 timeframe:

1.37 welcomed price action on Tuesday, fuelling a healthy bid into the US session (aided by RSI trendline support, taken from the low 27.58). As you can see, this elevated GBP/USD above the 100-period simple moving average to test the mettle of 1.3750 resistance.

Territory north of 1.3750 highlights resistance around the 1.38 figure, surrounded by a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3809 and a 50.0% retracement level at 1.3793. Beneath 1.37, the technical radar points to support at 1.3653.

Observed levels:

The daily timeframe’s Quasimodo support at 1.3609 is likely to remain on the watchlist for many traders. Not only is this considered stable structure, the neighbouring Fib confluence reinforces its technical presence.

Across the page on the lower timeframes, H4 is attempting to overthrow a 38.2% Fib level at 1.3763, while H1 is battling 1.3750 resistance. A firm H1 close above 1.3750 may be enough to tempt breakout buying to around 1.38. Equally interesting, this psychological area may be sufficient to hold back buyers, given the level shares space with H1 Fib levels and also unites with H4 trendline support-turned resistance.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Pressuring Support

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to hang about the 0.76 level. This is an area that of course has offered support previously, and the fact that we are starting to drift a little bit lower suggests to me that we are in fact going to perhaps try to break down. At this point in time, one thing the need to pay attention to is the fact that the February and the March candlesticks are both shooting stars, suggesting that we are in fact going to go lower given enough time.

AUD/USD Video 14.04.21

At this point in time, if we do rally, I suspect that the 50 day EMA will continue to be very resistive, and therefore be an opportunity to start shorting again. I have no interest in buying the Australian dollar in the short term, at least not until we take out the 50 day EMA, and close well above it on a daily chart. The 0.78 level would be the target then, which has been resistance previously. After that, then we would be looking at a potential move towards the 0.80 level.

At the 0.80 level, the market has massive resistance for about 100 points, based upon the monthly charts. If we were to break above there then the Australian dollar becomes a “buy-and-hold” type of scenario, and this market could go looking towards the 0.88 handle at that point. On the other hand, if we do get the breakdown that looks as if it is setting up, we could go as low as 0.71 over the next several months. While that does sound drastic, that is still simply a pullback in a massive uptrend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Extends the Drop

Gold extends the bearish correction giving chance to bulls, who missed the initial buying opportunity from the beginning of the month.

Silver bounces from a crucial mid-term horizontal support.

Brent Oil breaks the upper line of the triangle but the breakout itself is not very convincing.

Indices are ready to make another all-time highs.

The GBPUSD testing the neckline of the mid-term inverse head and shoulders pattern.

The AUDUSD with a flag just below the neckline of the H&S pattern.

The NZDUSD with a very similar situation.

The USDCAD consolidates below crucial long-term down trendlines.

The GBPAUD breaks two major short-term resistances but the main sentiment still looks rather negative.

The EURRUB stays bullish despite two dangerously looking shooting stars on an important horizontal resistance.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Aussie, Kiwi Traders Eyeing US Consumer Inflation Data

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are edging lower on Tuesday as traders await the release of U.S. consumer inflation data that should impact U.S. Government bond yields. Investors are also reacting to China’s March exports report that missed expectations and the jump in China imports. Domestic data and a solid sale of new Aussie government bonds are also influencing the price action early in the session.

At 08:09 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7611, down 0.0012 or -0.16% and the NZD/USD is at .7023, down 0.0006 or -0.09%.

China’s Exports Missed Forecast in March, while Imports Rose More than Expected

China on Tuesday reported March exports data that missed analyst forecasts while imports for the month rose more than expected.

Chinese exports last month jumped 30.6% from a year ago in U.S. Dollar terms, lagging the 35.5% increase that analysts polled by Reuters had expected. Meanwhile, the country’s imports in U.S. Dollar terms rose 38.1% in March from a year ago, exceeding the 23.3% increase those analysts had forecast.

The stronger-than-expected rise in imports led China’s trade surplus to shrink to $13.8 billion in March, much narrower than the Reuters poll’s forecast of $52.05 billion.

The Aussie found only fleeting support from the Chinese trade data, but the import news should be considered a positive given China is the Australia’s biggest export market.

Australian Business Conditions Surge to Record in March:  Survey

A measure of Australian business confidence surged to its highest on record in March as firms reported sharply increased sales, profits and employment, another sign of the country’s rapid recovery from the coronavirus pandemic recession.

National Australia Bank’s (NAB) index of business conditions jumped 8 points to +25 in March, with strength reported across most sectors and regions.

The survey’s measure of confidence eased 3 points, but was still relatively upbeat at +15.

“Businesses are telling us activity continues to increase at a very healthy rate as we have moved past the rebound phase in activity with the earlier removal of pandemic-related restrictions,” said NAB chief economist Alan Oster.

“Overall, the recovery over the last year has been much more rapid than anyone could have forecast.”

New Zealand Business Outlook Remains Pessimistic in Q1:  NZIER Business Confidence Report

New Zealand’s actual business confidence figures declined in the first quarter of the year although other parameters improved, suggesting a continued recovery in sentiment, a private think tank said on Tuesday.

A net 13% of firms surveyed expected general business conditions to deteriorate compared with 6% in the previous quarter, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) quarterly survey of business opinion (QSBO) showed.

Daily Forecast

The Aussie and Kiwi are drifting lower ahead of the release of a key U.S. inflation report. The March reading for the consumer price index is set to come out at 12:30 GMT. Economists polled by Dow Jones are projecting the headline index to rise by 0.5% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.

Traders will be reacting to the move in Treasury yields which have jumped from just below 1% since the end of January, over fears of inflation rising as the U.S. economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

A rise in yields could make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment, pressuring the Aussie and Kiwi, however, gains could be limited with some investors already pricing in an increase.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Daily Forecast – The Major Support Level At 0.7600 Stays Strong

AUD/USD Video 13.04.21.

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground Against Australian Dollar

AUD/USD continues to test the major support level at 0.7600 while the U.S. dollar gains some ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently made an attempt to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 92.30 but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum and pulled back towards the support at 92.15. If the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this support level, it will move closer to the next support at the 92 level which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

Today, Australia reported that Business Confidence declined from 18 in February (revised from 16) to 15 in March compared to analyst forecast of 18. The report put some pressure on the Australian currency.

Foreign exchange market traders will soon have a chance to take a look at the latest inflation data from the U.S. Analysts expect that Inflation Rate grew by 2.5% year-over-year in March. Core Inflation Rate is projected to grow by 1.5% year-over-year.

Inflation reports may have a material impact on the dynamics of the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market. If inflation is higher than expected, Treasury yields will move higher which will be bullish for the American currency.

Technical Analysis

aud usd april 13 2021

AUD/USD failed to settle above the resistance at 0.7635 and declined back to the key support level at 0.7600. This is a very important support level which has been tested many times in recent trading sessions.

If AUD/USD manages to settle below the support at 0.7600, it will likely gain significant downside momentum and quickly get to the test of the next support at 0.7575. A successful test of the support at 0.7575 will push AUD/USD towards the next support at 0.7535.

On the upside, AUD/USD needs to settle above the resistance at 0.7635 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for AUD/USD is located at the 20 EMA at 0.7645. In case AUD/USD gets above the 20 EMA, it will head towards the resistance at 0.7665.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A Busier Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, the GBP, and the Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar were in action this morning, with economic data from China also in focus.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Business confidence and electronic card retail sales were in focus in the early hours.

In the 1st quarter, a net 11% of businesses expect a worsening in general economic conditions in the coming months.

According to the NZIER, this was a modest improvement from 16% of businesses that were pessimistic in the previous quarter.

Electronic card retail sales rose by 0.9% in March, partially reversing a 2.5% decline from February. The upside came in spite of spending constraints in the 1st week of March.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Card spending increased in four of the six retail industries.
  • Sales of durables increased by 1.8%, while spending on consumables slid by 3.3%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70293 to $0.70324 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.20% to $0.7016.

For the Aussie Dollar

In March, the NAB Business Confidence Index fell from 18 to 15. In February, the index had risen from 13 to 18.

According to the March survey,

  • In spite of the fall in confidence, confidence remained at a high level suggesting that firms are optimistic that the strength in activity will continue.
  • While confidence declined, business conditions rose by 8 points to a record high +25 in March.
  • Strong increases in all the sub-components, which are all now also at record highs drove the conditions index higher.

Looking at the sub-components:

  • The employment sub-index climbed from +9 to +16, with the capacity utilization rate rising from 81.8% to 82.3%.
  • Profitability also improved, with the sub-index rising from +18 to +26.
  • A pickup in inflationary pressures was also evident. The labor costs sub-index rose by 1.9% following a 1.1% increase in February. Purchases costs increased by 1.8%, following a more modest 0.7% rise in February.
  • Forward orders were also on the rise, with the sub-index climbing from +10 to +17.
  • The trading sub-index saw the largest increase, however, jumping from +23 to +35 in March.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.76095 to $0.76109 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.20% to $0.7608.

From China

Trade data was in focus this morning.

In March, China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus widened from $103.25bn to $116.35bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $52.05bn.

Exports surged by 49.0% year-on-year, following a 60.60% jump in March, with imports rising by 38.1%. In February, imports had risen by 22.2%.

Economists had forecast for exports to increase by 35.5% and for imports to rise by 23.3%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.76105 to $0.76116 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.22% to ¥109.62 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are due out later today.

Expect both sets of numbers to provide the EUR with direction. EUR sensitivity to the numbers has picked up recently, so we expect the numbers to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news and progress on the vaccination front will also continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.11% to $1.1898.

For the Pound

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar.

3-month rolling GDP, manufacturing and industrial production and trade data are due out later today.

While we will expect the GDP and manufacturing production figures to have the greatest interest, trade data will draw more interest.

The markets will be looking to assess the ongoing effects of Brexit on UK trade terms.

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.3741.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. March inflation figures will be in focus later today.

With market sensitivity to inflation continuing to linger in spite of the FED’s assurances, expect plenty of influence from the numbers.

Away from the economic calendar chatter from Capitol Hill and FOMC member commentary will also need monitoring.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.08% to 92.211.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats from Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.10% to C$1.2575 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Consolidate

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Monday as we essentially have nowhere to be. At this point, we are looking at the 0.76 level as a bit of a magnet for price, so it will be interesting to see whether or not we make some type of bigger move. I do think it is only a matter of time before we have to make the bigger move. Recently, we had seen a couple of shooting stars on the monthly candlesticks, so that does tell me that there is quite a bit of resistance above.

AUD/USD Video 13.04.21

Ultimately, I am looking to fade this market on signs of exhaustion, but I have to keep an open mind as we are most certainly in an uptrend. I do not necessarily think that the market is going to suddenly melt down Dan fall apart, but a significant pullback could be in the works. This will be especially true if yields in America continue to rise overall. That makes the US dollar much more attractive, as yield differentials continue to spread.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think could pull back towards the 0.70 level and still retain the longer-term uptrend. There are certainly a lot of things out there that could cause issues right now, so do not be surprised at all to see this market break down. On the other hand, if we break above the 50 day EMA, we will then go looking towards the 0.78 handle, another area that could be potential trouble as well. For a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of move, we need to break above the 0.81 handle to really get going.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Another Test Of Support At 0.7600 Yields No Results

AUD/USD Video 12.04.21.

Australian Dollar Is Mostly Flat Against U.S. Dollar

AUD/USD has recently made an another attempt to settle below the major support level at 0.7600 but failed to develop sufficient downside momentum while the U.S. dollar moved higher against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently located in the range between the support at 91.15 and the resistance at the 20 EMA at 92.30. A move above the 20 EMA will signal that the U.S. Dollar Index is ready to develop additional upside momentum which will be bearish for AUD/USD.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in the U.S. and Australia today so foreign exchange market traders will monitor the dynamics of commodity markets and keep an eye on the developments in U.S. government bond markets.

Commodity markets are currently moving lower as traders are worried about the situation with coronavirus in India which is a major consumer of commodities. Yesterday, India recorded almost 170,000 cases of coronavirus which was a new daily record. If the situation in India gets worse, commodity-related currencies may find themselves under more pressure.

Technical Analysis

aud usd april 12 2021

AUD/USD failed to settle below the key support level at 0.7600 and remained in the range between the support at 0.7600 and the resistance at 0.7635.

If AUD/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 0.7635, it will move towards the resistance which is located at the 20 EMA at 0.7650. A successful test of this level will push AUD/USD towards the resistance at 0.7665. In case AUD/USD gets above the resistance at 0.7665, it will get to the test of the next resistance at the 50 EMA at 0.7675.

On the support side, AUD/USD needs to get below the major support level at 0.7600 to gain downside momentum. If AUD/USD settles below this level, it will quickly get to the test of the next support at 0.7575. A move below the support at 0.7575 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 0.7535.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Eurozone Retail Sales and the BoC Business Survey Put the EUR and Loonie in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats for the markets to consider in the early hours.

The Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥109.72 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.11% to $0.7025. The Aussie Dollar was down by 0.21% to $0.7607.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. February retail sales for the Eurozone are due out later today.

With the ECB looking for consumer spending to support the economic recovery, we can expect some sensitivity to the numbers. Fresh lockdown measures reintroduced across a number of member states in recent weeks, however, could limit the impact of any positive numbers.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news and progress on the vaccination front will also influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.07% to $1.1891.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of COVID-19 and vaccine news updates.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.3701.

Across the Pond

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Greenback with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of news from Capitol Hill and FOMC member commentary.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.06% to 92.216.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey is due out later today.

With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect plenty of influence from the survey.

Away from the economic calendar, crude oil prices and market sentiment towards demand will also influence.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.13% to C$1.2546 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.