Bitcoin Update: A Revisit of $29,000 Cannot be Excluded Just Yet

Two weeks ago, I showed you that Bitcoin (BTC) had two options “Pay me now or pay me later.” Back then, I viewed BTC as “either … setting up as a -in Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) terms- nested one-two set up or it is topping out. The difference between the two options is simple: breakout above the mid-August high ($50514), … or breakdown below the recent lows at around $46245 to target $40-44K. From there, BTC can then start its rally to $90K.

The cryptocurrency did throw a curveball*, as it broke above the $50514 high, rallied to as high as $52919, and then plunged essentially in one day down to $43500. It certainly caught me on the wrong side, but that is why one always has stops in place, as there are no guarantees in the markets, and one always has to adhere to rule number one in trading: minimize your losses. The “pop and drop” pattern into the original $40-44K target zone clarifies things. Allow me to explain below.

Figure 1. Bitcoin daily charts with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

A Revisit of 29K is still possible

All corrections consist of at least three waves: a, b, c. See Figure 1A. Corrections are either 2nd or 4th waves. Allow me to explain. BTC topped out on September 7 at $52919 and lost 17% intra-day (red, intermediate wave-a). Then it rallied in an overlapping fashion to $48788 on September 17 (red, intermediate wave-b) and then dropped yesterday and today again to $40213 (red, intermediate wave-c). In this case, today’s low (wave-c) equaled almost precisely the length of wave-a measured from the top of wave-b (red arrow).

This length is a typical relationship for what in EWP-terms is called a zigzag correction. Besides, BTC has retraced almost precisely 50% of the rally that started in June at today’s low. In this case, I count that rally as a more significant 1st wave (black, major wave-1) as it can be assessed as having made five waves up (the five red, intermediate waves i, ii, iii, iv, and v). The current decline is then major wave-2, which could have been completed as there is now the required minimum of three waves down with a classic internal relationship. The 50%, as mentioned earlier, retrace of wave-1 is also typical for a 2nd wave.

However, Figure 1B shows the BTC Bulls are not out of the woods just yet, as the September 7 high at $52919 could also have been a more significant b-wave bounce. That means the cryptocurrency is now working its way down back the $29K region for a c-wave of a more enormous (blue) Primary-IV wave. Remember, corrections are always at least three waves, and in this case, I assess BTC having topped in April and not in March as with the Bullish option. This bearish option then allows for three waves: wave-a to the June low, wave-b to the recent September high, and now wave-c is underway. A further breakdown in price, especially below $37220 towards the shown 161.80% extension at $33255, will make this option my preferred path.

The Bulls would need to see BTC hold above $37220 and see a rally back above Saturday’s $48788 high to tell us the current three-waves down pattern have completed and a retest of $53K is in the cards. From an EWP perspective, BTC will ultimately have to break above $56K to know that larger wave-3 is underway. But, before that my indicators will have moved from down to up, from sell to buy, and my automated crypto trading alerts will have given a buy signal long before that as well.

Bottom line: Bitcoin’s price chart still has a bearish potential that can target as low as $29K before the run to $90K+ finally gets going. A continued move down towards the mid-30Ks will undoubtedly increase those odds. However, my preferred view remains that BTC has bottomed and is now working through a corrective 2nd wave that sets it up for the next launch to $75K. A breakout above Saturday’s $48788 high tells me the current three waves down pattern has been completed, which increases the odds of a new impulse higher tremendously.

*Please remember, my work is ~70% reliable and ~90% accurate. Plenty enough to give my premium crypto trading members an edge. But we must, therefore, have realistic expectations and not expect perfection and zero bad calls in a dynamic, stochastic, probabilistic environment. Therefore, all we can do is “anticipate, monitor, and adjust if necessary.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Its Revolut’s Time For Adoption As It Pays For Its WeWork Office Space In Bitcoin

Bitcoin has gained massive adoption from corporate entities over the past few years, and this time, it is UK-based fintech firm Revolut that is using BTC to pay for an office space.

Revolut Pays For An Office Space In Bitcoin

Revolut, one of the leading fintech companies in the United Kingdom, has decided to pay for its largest office space in Bitcoin. The company rented the office space in the United States and has paid WeWork the rent in BTC.

WeWork announced that the challenger bank rented its new U.S.-based office in Dallas, Texas, and it is set to host 300 people. According to WeWork, Revolut is its first enterprise member to rent a new space using cryptocurrency.

 

Revolut stated that it paid for the office space in Bitcoin to showcase its growing belief in cryptocurrencies as a method of payment. Paying with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies eliminates the need to use intermediaries for its transactions. As such, the move has saved the company from costly international remittance fees.

The Adoption Of Bitcoin Is Growing

Revolut’s payment in BTC doesn’t come as a surprise, as WeWork announced earlier this year that it has started accepting payments in cryptocurrencies. WeWork partnered with crypto payment processor BitPay to provide the payment options to its clients.

The British fintech’s partnership with WeWork will also allow its offices in Berlin, Dallas, Dublin, Melbourne, Moscow, Singapore, and New York to be redesigned as flexible workspaces.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

The leading cryptocurrency has been struggling to top the $50k level in recent weeks. BTC is down by roughly 1% today and is trading just above the $47k at the moment. The broader crypto market is also in a bearish run at the moment, and more losses could be recorded during the weekend.

El Salvador Bonds Tumble as Investors Eye Bitcoin Use, IMF Talks

S&P Global said risks associated with the country’s adoption of bitcoin as parallel legal tender to the U.S. dollar “seem to outweigh its potential benefits” and there are “immediate negative implications for credit.”

S&P also said the use of bitcoin threatens a potential deal between El Salvador and the IMF.

Government bond spreads to comparable U.S. Treasuries rose to 986 basis points on Thursday, surpassing the previous record high spread hit in May 2020.

Bonds prices are near the lows hit last October, before rallying to record highs in mid April.

“These new price lows may encourage capitulation from core long positions that are forced to reassess their overweight positions without an IMF anchor,” Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America fixed income strategy at Amherst Pierpont Securities, said in a client note.

“The economic agenda remains subordinated to the political agenda with no clear framework on budgetary financing, no apparent commitment to fiscal discipline and a political agenda that remains a drag on investment and growth.”

Thousands of Salvadorans marched on Wednesday to protest a perceived power grab by President Nayib Bukele, who is otherwise popular with the public. Bitcoin policy was also a target of the protest, and an ATM where the cryptocurrency can be exchanged for dollars was vandalized.

The swift firing of judges on the constitutional panel of the Supreme Court in May and the recent court ruling that the president can serve two consecutive terms, opening the door for Bukele to stand for re-election in 2024, have soured his relationship with the United States.

U.S. votes carry the largest weight for any decision regarding loans at the IMF.

The potential for an IMF program for El Salvador is “under discussion,” Fund spokesman Gerry Rice said in a news briefing earlier on Thursday, adding that anti-corruption measures and fiscal responsibility are high on the agenda.

The Fund did not immediately respond to a request for comment regarding S&P’s statement on risks to a potential deal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Nelson Rentería and Marc Jones; Editing by Paul Simao)

Move Aside Millennials. Baby Boomers Won’t Be Left Behind In Bitcoin Adoption

Millennials and Generation Z are those with the highest stake in the cryptocurrency market, but new research has shown an increasing interest from baby boomers.

Baby Boomers Are Becoming Increasingly Interested In Bitcoin

New research conducted by Australian cryptocurrency exchange BTC Markets revealed that an increasing number of baby boomers are entering the cryptocurrency market. They are gaining exposure to BTC at a fast rate, the research revealed.

According to the research, BTC Markets has experienced a 15% increase in the number of investors aged 60 to 65 and those above 65. The cryptocurrency exchange said more people within that age range are entering the crypto market and gaining exposure to BTC and other digital currencies.

BTC Markets said thanks to the surge in the number of baby boomers, they now comprise 5% of its total 325,000 customer base. The CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Caroline Bowler stated that young male traders are no longer in control of the market, with the generation Z and baby boomers taking the first and second spot on the platform.

The cryptocurrency exchange said more than a quarter of its users are those aged above 44, and they have more money to invest in the market. BTC Markets said the baby boomers have the highest average initial deposit at $3,200, with an average crypto portfolio of $3,700.

Bitcoin has become an alternative investment vehicle

Bowler pointed out that the current low-interest rates are a crucial factor behind baby boomers adopting Bitcoin as an alternative investment vehicle. She added that the baby boomers have acquired wealth and assets over time and are not worried about allocating a small portion of their portfolios to BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

Bitcoin has been performing well in recent days. The leading cryptocurrency is up by less than 1% and is currently trading around the $48k mark. BTC looks set to surpass the next resistance point at $50,000, which could set it up for higher gains close to the $51,500 region.

Bitcoin Reversal Aggressive Long, Watch For Fake Out

Bitcoin has been consolidating around the 44K support and so far refuses to break lower. The push above 47K is a buy signal, but it is important to accept the elevated risk that comes along with this break out attempt.

From a swing trade perspective, buying just above 47K means RISK is defined from 43K. Putting a stop any tighter dramatically increases the chance of getting stopped out on any random price noise.

What makes this risk “elevated” is the potential for a fake out just above 47K. The 50K area is still a notable resistance which can reassert itself again. IF a bearish reversal appears in this area upon taking a position, an adjustment is warranted. This means you can exit early for a small loss, gain, adjust your stop, etc.

Also keep in mind IF a lower high is established somewhere between 47 and 52K, then a retest of 44K will be very likely. If 44K breaks, then 41K is the next major support level.

These are price scenarios to watch out for IF the resistance holds. IF bullish momentum follows through, it would be a good idea to start taking partial profits once 51K is reached in order to justify the risk.

The more conservative thing to do would be to wait for a clear higher low, or continuation pattern AFTER the 48K area or higher is reached. This at least proves that the bearish momentum relative to the large outside candle off of 52K is no longer in control.

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Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Digital Wallet Beset by Technical Glitches

Problems accessing the wallet, withdrawing money from ATMs, and data verification, as well as the government not depositing the $30 bonus Bukele promised all Chivo users were the most frequent issues, according to interviews with at least 10 users and user complaints posted on Twitter and Facebook.

Melvin Vasquez, a 30-year-old tattoo artist, downloaded Chivo on Tuesday, when the bitcoin law went into effect, but has since been unable to use it.

“I want to see if I can buy something, but it won’t even let me enter,” Vasquez lamented, after trying to buy pizza at a restaurant on the outskirts of San Salvador. “They should have prepared more… It is not so convenient.”

User complaints were also stacking up in Apple’s App Store and Alphabet’s Google Play.

“I downloaded it and entered all my data. Now when I want to log in again, it doesn’t let me and it doesn’t recognize my pin or face ID. I don’t have other options. Truthfully, a really bad app!,” said one user.

Bukele stepped in on Wednesday to manage the fraught roll-out of the payments app that underpins El Salvador’s adoption of bitcoin as legal tender. Chivo, which promises commission-free transactions and his administration hopes will be adopted by the unbanked, has been disconnected several times to repair the glitches.

Bukele’s administration is aiming for 2.5 million Salvadorans, some 39% of the population, to download Chivo, named after a local word for ‘good.’ He has argued that bitcoin would allow Salvadorans to save on $400 million each year in commissions for remittances.

But many of the very people sending or receiving dollars to El Salvador are mistrustful of bitcoin. Some expressed fears of losing money, given the high volatility of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin has experienced daily trading moves of 10% or more 10 times this year, as it did both in 2020 and 2019, according to Refinitiv data. In 2018 and 2017, there were 17 days each year of 10% moves or more.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Reporting by Nelson Renteria in San Salvador; Additional reporting by Diego Ore in Mexico City; Writing by Anthony Esposito; Editing by Rosalba O’Brien)

Bitcoin Trading Subdued After Chaotic Debut in El Salvador; Coinbase Faces Lawsuit

The Securities and Exchange Commission issued Coinbase with a Wells notice, indicating the U.S. regulator will sue if the crypto exchange goes ahead with the launch of its interest-bearing “Lend” product for crypto assets.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler has called the crypto universe a “Wild West” that is riddled with fraud and investor risk.

Coinbase said it would delay the launch until at least October. Shares of Coinbase fell 2.50% to $260.02.

Coinbase is not the only cryptocurrency platform to come under regulatory scrutiny. Several states have cracked down on BlockFi.

Trading in bitcoin was less hectic after the cryptocurrency suffered its heaviest losses in 2-1/2 months on Tuesday, when it hit a near four-month high of $52,956 before ending the day down 11.1%, its largest percentage drop since June 2.

At one point on Tuesday, the digital currency fell as much as 18.6%, wiping out more than $180 billion in market value.

Bitcoin on Wednesday was down 0.92% at $46,369.72.

Tuesday was a historic day for bitcoin as El Salvador’s decision to make the digital currency legal tender got off to a bumpy start.

Technological glitches hampered its use while street protests by mistrustful citizens broke out in the Central American country.

As bitcoin wobbled, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said his government purchased an additional 150 bitcoins on Tuesday, worth around $7 million.

“That has underscored the difficulty in trying to protect the value of bitcoin as its own currency,” said Nana Otsuki, chief economist at Monex Securities. “The buying didn’t seem to be effective in halting its fall.”

Analysts said the move by El Salvador showed crypto currencies are here to stay but as with any innovation, they will suffer birthing pains as the currency’s volatility must be resolved.

Bitcoin has been pitched to a largely unbanked population in El Salvador as an effective savings vehicle and a store of value for users, said Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, assistant professor of finance at Warwick Business School in Britain.

“High volatility in a medium of exchange corresponds to high volatility in the macroeconomy. Users who hold bitcoin will now see wild swings in their savings,” Viswanath-Natraj said.

Bitcoin has experienced daily trading moves of 10% or more 10 times this year, as it did both in 2020 and 2019, according to Refinitiv data. In 2018 and 2017, there were 17 days each year of 10% moves or more, per Refinitiv.

Citing volatility in crypto markets, Robinhood Markets Inc said on Wednesday it would roll out crypto recurring investments, allowing customers to buy digital coins commission-free and with as little as $1 on a schedule of their choice.

Tuesday’s trading frenzy included bouts of delayed transactions at U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, Gemini and Coinbase.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Reporting by Herbert Lash in New York; Additional reporting by Jamie McGeever in New York, Hideyuki Sano and Anushka Trivedi in Tokyo and Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Matthew Lewis)

SEC Considers Coinbase’s Crypto Yield Program As A Security. Brian Armstrong Responds

The US SEC has threatened to sue Coinbase over its crypto yield program, tagging it as a security.

SEC Considers Coinbase’s Yield Program As a Security

The CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, revealed earlier today that the cryptocurrency exchange had come under fire from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to Armstrong, the regulatory agency had threatened to sue the cryptocurrency exchange for its yield program.

The SEC considers the yield program to be a security and that Coinbase didn’t register with the agency before launching it. However, Armstrong said the regulatory agency didn’t tell the exchange why the program was a security and didn’t clarify any existing guideline for Coinbase to follow regarding its crypto yield program.

 

He added that the crypto exchange informed the US SEC earlier this year about the expected launch of its Coinbase Lend program that intends to offer users 4% annual yield returns on deposits made with the USDC stablecoin.

The Coinbase CEO pointed out that there are numerous cryptocurrency trading platforms that currently offer similar lending services to their customers. He, therefore, urged the SEC to provide regulatory clarity on the issue to ensure that market players provide the services in accordance with the law.

He added that Coinbase is committed to following the law. However, Armstrong lamented that sometimes, the law is unclear. Hence, if the SEC wants to publish guidance, Coinbase would be happy to follow it and tailor its products in line with the regulatory requirements.

Cryptocurrency Market Loses Over $300 Billion In 24 Hours

The cryptocurrency market recorded massive losses over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, the total crypto market cap was close to $2.4 trillion. However, the market correction yesterday saw the market cap drop to the $2 trillion mark, resulting in a loss of over $300 billion in the last 24 hours.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

Bitcoin’s price is down by nearly 9% since yesterday. BTC was trading above $52k yesterday but has since lost a large chunk of its value and is now trading at $46k per coin. Ether is also down by over 10% and is trading around the $3,400 region.

What to Expect Next After BTC/USD Break Above $50k

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has managed to break above the psychologically round leve of $50k. Can the cryptocurrency challenge the previous high again?

Let’s review the long-term charts to analyse the remainder of the year 2021. Will the 2021 bull run outpace the 2017 bull run?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

The BTC/USD is showing a strong bullish recovery after a deep bearish pullback:

  1. Price action has managed to break above the 21 ema zone again.
  2. The bullish momentum is expected to challenge the previous top (blue arrow).
  3. The previous top is a strong resistance zone and could stop the uptrend.
  4. A bearish retracement (orange arrows) could complete an ABC (blue) in wave 4 (pink).
  5. A bullish bounce (green arrow) could take place at the support zone (green box).
  6. A bull flag pattern (grey arrows) however indicates that the immediate uptrend remains valid. In that case, a wave 4’ finished at the recent low.

On the daily chart, we see that the bullish momentum is strong because price action remains above the 21 ema zone for a long time:

  1. The bullish price swing is either a wave C or 3 (orange).
  2. This depends on the price reaction at the resistance zone (red box).
  3. A bearish reversal (red arrow) indicates a wave C and more bearish correction.
  4. A flag pattern (grey arrows) indicates a wave 3 continuation.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

El Salvador Is Trusting Its Guts On Bitcoin With $150 Million Allocated To A BTC Trust Fund

Bitcoin (BTC) will become a legal tender in El Salvador officially on September 7, and the government is now betting big on the cryptocurrency.

El Salvador Sets Up A $150 Million Bitcoin Trust Fund

The El Salvador government has shown its commitment to Bitcoin after setting up a $150 million trust fund. The trust fund was approved by the finance commission of El Salvador’s Legislative Assembly, and it is expected to be used to support the country’s plan to make BTC a legal tender.

El Salvador set history as the first country in the world to adopt the leading cryptocurrency as a legal tender. The proposal was approved a few months ago, but it will come into effect in less than a week.

El Salvador’s Diario de Hoy newspaper has now reported that the government has set aside $150 million to help it with its Bitcoin adoption. According to the publication, the government could increase the money in the trust fund if the need arises.

The government will also launch Chivo, its official Bitcoin wallet, on September 7. While using the wallet and Bitcoin is an option, those who download and use the wallet will receive $30 in BTC from the government. According to the legislature, the $150 million allocated in the Bitcoin trust fund would help in sharing the $30 bonus to citizens who sign up for the Chivo wallet.

The adoption has also picked up steam, with the El Salvador government installing over 200 Bitcoin ATMs across the country. Bitcoin’s price has been quiet in recent days, with the leading cryptocurrency trading just above $47k per coin.

BTC is down by less than 1% in the past 24 hours, failing to surpass and stay above the $48k resistance level for the third consecutive day.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

Not Everyone Is Onboard

Not all El Salvadorians are on board with the government’s plan to make Bitcoin a legal tender. There have been protests in El Salvador in recent days s some people are not comfortable with the idea of having BTC as a legal tender.

The protests haven’t deterred the government from its mission. Bitcoin’s status would be established as a legal tender in El Salvador as the government’s belief in the cryptocurrency is strong.

Cuba’s Move Shows Cryptocurrencies Are Gaining The Recognition They Deserve

Cryptocurrencies are slowly gaining global recognition, and Cuba is the latest country looking to officially regulate crypto payments.

Cuba Set To Recognize And Regulate Crypto Payments

The Cuban government is currently working on a bill that would officially recognize cryptocurrencies in the country. The bill also seeks to regulate cryptocurrency payments despite not acknowledging them as legal tender.

According to a report by Al Jazeera earlier today, the government will allow cryptocurrency payments to help the country circumvent the sanctions put in place by the United States. This would be similar to what Iran is doing to bypass America’s sanctions.

The Cuban Central Bank is currently working on a set of regulations on cryptocurrencies. The apex bank is also working to determine how it would license cryptocurrency service providers in Cuba. This latest development comes as cryptocurrencies become very popular in Cuba. It has become very tough for Cubans to send and receive US Dollars since the sanctions imposed by Donald Trump.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have gained adoption in struggling economies globally. El Salvador has become the first nation in the world to officially adopt BTC as a legal tender. Other countries like Nigeria, Zimbabwe and more have seen a huge influx of cryptocurrency investors and traders, thanks to the economic hardships in those regions.

While El Salvador is the first to make the move, more countries could follow suit. At the moment, some countries are already officially recognizing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as either an asset class or medium of exchanges.

Bitcoin Could Recover Recent Losses

Bitcoin has suffered a dip over the past few days, dropping from its high above $50k during the weekend to trade below the $47k yesterday. However, the price of the leading cryptocurrency is slowly recovering as it is now trading above the $47k region.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

The cryptocurrency market could continue its slow recovery during the weekend to reach the $50k again if the bullish momentum is maintained.

It’s Time To Take Crypto Services Global. PayPal Expands Into The UK

Payment platform PayPal has started expanding its cryptocurrency trading services to other parts of the world, and it begins with the United Kingdom.

PayPal’s Crypto Service Now Available In The UK

PayPal, one of the leading online payment companies in the world, announced earlier today that it has rolled out its cryptocurrency trading services to its customers in the UK. The service will allow UK customers to buy, hold and sell Bitcoin and a few other cryptos using PayPal.

In a blog post earlier today, PayPal said UK traders can now gain access to a wide range of cryptocurrencies on its platform. PayPal said, “Customers can choose from four types of cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. By accessing their PayPal account via the website or the mobile app, they can view real-time crypto prices, access educational content to help answer commonly asked questions, and learn more about cryptocurrencies, including the opportunities and risks.”

PayPal launched its crypto trading service in 2020. However, the company had limited it to only traders living in the United States. PayPal has now started to expand the service to its millions of customers in other parts of the world.

At the moment, PayPal has over 400 million customers globally, and it wants to ensure they find it easy to buy, sell and hold cryptocurrencies. The payment giant revealed a few weeks ago that it is working on ensuring its customers can withdraw their bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies to external wallets.

PayPal’s payment app Venmo also launched a crypto trading service, but it is currently limited to traders in the US.

Bitcoin reaches $50k

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have been experiencing massive growth in recent months. The market is recovering from the slump that had affected prices in the previous three months.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

BTC is now up by 2.2% over the past 24 hours and is trading above the $50k level for the first time since May. The leading cryptocurrency would now be looking to recapture its all-time high of $65,000 over the next few weeks or months if the current market condition is maintained.

Learn Why Bitcoin is Expected to Break Above 50k Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is breaking above key and critical resistance levels. The bullish impulse is starting to pick up pace.

Can the Bitcoin bulls challenge or break the previous top and ATH (all time high)?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD daily chart

The BTC/USD daily chart was in a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs after price action completed a rising wedge reversal chart pattern (dotted purple lines):

  1. Price action, however, respected the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support level.
  2. A bullish bounce confirms the wave 4 pattern (pink) after an ABC (blue).
  3. Price has managed to break above 3 different resistance zones (dotted red lines).
  4. Price is now moving higher in a bullish channel (green lines).
  5. The momentum is strong because price action has stayed above the 21 ema high for more than 2 weeks and the 21 ema high and low also have a steep angle.
  6. The momentum and wave patterns suggest more bullishness to test the previous top (blue arrows).
  7. Bull flag patterns (orange arrows) would help confirm the bullish outlook.
  8. The previous tops have now become a support zone (green box).

On the 4 hour chart, price action is showing strength to the upside and corrective movements to the downside. The bulls are fully in control:

  1. The bullish price swing is probably a wave 3 (green).
  2. A break above the -61.8% Fibonacci level would help confirm this outlook.
  3. A small retracement could take place but price action should respect the support zone (green).
  4. Any deeper retracement could place the current wave view on hold. In that case, a larger and deeper wave 1-2 pattern could take place.
  5. With a bullish continuation, price action should be in a wave 3 of wave 3.
BTC/USD 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

El Salvador Unveils Banking Regulations For Bitcoin, Says Bitcoin Use Is Optional

El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption is expected to become official in less than three weeks, and the government has now published a draft to guide banks on how to handle the cryptocurrency.

El Salvador Publishes Banking Regulations For Bitcoin

The El Salvador central bank, Banco Central de Reserva (BCR), has published two documents designed to help financial institutions in the country deal with Bitcoin. The guidelines would make it easier for banks to understand how to offer Bitcoin-related services to their customers.

The first document roughly translates as “Guidelines for the Authorization of Operation of the Digital Wallet Platform for Bitcoin and Dollars.” The document defines Bitcoin as a legal tender after the legislation was passed a few months ago. Following the approval of the bill, Bitcoin is set to become an official legal tender in El Salvador on September 7.

The second document is called Technical Standards to Facilitate the Application of the Bitcoin Law,” and it contains details on how financial institutions and banks should offer Bitcoin services to their customers.

Per the regulation, financial institutions would have to apply to the El Salvador central bank if they wish to offer digital wallets. Furthermore, the applications are required to contain details on the type of products the banks would be offering, the target market, risk assessments, charges to customers, various complaint processes and education resources for the customers.

The banks would make it easy for people to convert Bitcoin to US Dollars and vice versa. The financial institutions are also required to ensure customers go through the standard Know-your-customer (KYC) verification processes. They also need to implement anti-money laundering (AML) procedures when dealing with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Use Is Optional

El Salvador’s finance minister Alejandro Zelaya pointed out earlier this week that the use of Bitcoin is totally optional. According to the minister, the US Dollar remains the dominant currency in El Salvador, but Bitcoin is available as an option for people that want to use it.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

Bitcoin has been in a bearish mode for the past few days, with its price down by 0.67% over the past 24 hours. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above the $44k mark, dropping from the $47k level it attained during the weekend.

Galaxy Digital Files With SEC To Launch A Bitcoin Futures ETF Despite Q2 Losses

Galaxy Digital has filed with the US SEC to launch a Bitcoin futures ETF hours before reporting losses in the most recent quarter.

Galaxy Digital Wants To Launch A Bitcoin (BTC) Futures ETF

Galaxy Digital has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list a Bitcoin futures ETF. The digital asset management company wants to launch an ETF that doesn’t directly track the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

The Galaxy Bitcoin Strategy ETF is expected to provide investors exposure to Bitcoin futures and other Bitcoin exchange-traded funds instead of the direct spot price of Bitcoin. Galaxy Digital said the fund would invest in Bitcoin futures and other Bitcoin ETFs launched in countries like Canada and Brazil.

The application comes barely two weeks after SEC chair Gary Gensler said the regulatory agency might be open to approving an ETF that doesn’t directly track the spot price of cryptocurrencies. Since then, five companies have filed to launch Bitcoin futures ETFs. The Bitcoin futures ETFs are expected to gain the SEC’s approval as they align with what the regulatory agency requires.

The SEC has declined several cryptocurrency ETFs in the past. The regulatory agency believes that more regulation is needed in the crypto space to provide investor protection before ETFs tracking the spot prices of cryptos are approved.

Galaxy Digital Losses $175 Million In Q2

A few hours after filing for a Bitcoin futures ETF, Galaxy Digital reported its second-quarter earnings, and the company didn’t perform well. CEO Mike Novogratz revealed that the digital asset manager recorded a loss of $175.8 million in the previous quarter.

The losses could be attributed to a decline in the prices of Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies. It comes despite Galaxy Digital reporting an increase in trading activities and managed assets during that quarter.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

Bitcoin dropped from its all-time high above $64k to trade below $30k in the second quarter. However, the market is slowly recovering, and Bitcoin has been trading above the $40k mark for the past few weeks.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is down by 3% and is trading above $45,400 on various cryptocurrency exchanges. The market recovery could continue for the next few months, and that could boost Galaxy Digital’s performance in the current quarter.

It’s Spain’s Turn. Spanish Regulator Warns Huobi And Others For Non-Registration

Regulators in various parts of the world are turning the heat on cryptocurrency exchanges operating without a license. This time, Spanish regulators have issued a warning to exchanges operating unregistered in the country.

Spanish Watchdog Issues A Warning To Unregistered Exchanges

Spain’s National Securities Market Commission has issued a warning to some cryptocurrency trading platforms operating in the country without a license. The companies have been warned that they are operating without getting approval from the regulator.

According to the warning issued to the companies, they could be sanctioned if they failed to register. “According to CNMV records, these institutions are not registered in the corresponding registry of this Commission and, therefore, are not authorised to provide investment services or other activities subject to the CNMV’s supervision,” the letter said.

The companies mentioned in the letter are; Huobi, Bybit, Dsdaq Market, Markets Cube, Expertise Trader, Markets EU, Profit Assist, Financial Resident, Liberty Sky, N2 Group and The Market Limited.

Huobi, Bybit, Dsdaq Market, Markets Cube and Expertise Trader are cryptocurrency trading platforms, while N2 Group is a crypto token issuer. The other companies run financial and investment operations in Spain.

The warning doesn’t imply that the Spanish regulator would ban the companies from operating in Spain. However, the SMC could appeal to the justice system to sanction the firms. Furthermore, the warning is to alert the consumers to the dangers of using unregistered financial markets operators.

Crypto Exchanges Are Coming Under Fire

Cryptocurrency exchanges are increasingly coming under fire. Binance is the exchange that has faced the toughest regulatory challenges in recent months. It began with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) banned Binance Markets Limited from operating in the country. This resulted in some top banks like Santander, HSBC and Barclays blocking Binance payments.

Furthermore, Italian regulators have also warned Binance that it doesn’t have a license to operate in Italy. Malaysia has also banned Binance from operating, and the exchange is expected to cease operations over the coming weeks.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

The cryptocurrency market has slightly retreated after a bullish weekend. Bitcoin’s price is currently down by 1.7%, and it is trading just above the $46k region. Analysts are optimistic about the short-term price performance of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

Messi To Receive Fan Token As Part Of His Contract With PSG

Lionel Messi’s move to Paris Saint Germaine has been the talk of the football world this week, and it has now emerged that his contract involves payment with the club’s fan token.

Messi To Receive PSG Fan Token As Part Of His Payment

Lionel Messi moved to PSG earlier this week, and it included a payment in cryptocurrency fan tokens. This is according to an exclusive report by Reuters earlier today, with sources close to the matter revealing the details behind the contract.

According to Reuters, Paris St Germain (PSG) revealed in a statement that the Argentine superstar would receive the club’s fan token as part of his welcome package or signing on fee. The token was developed by Socios.com, the club’s fan token provider.

However, Paris St Germain didn’t reveal the amount of the tokens Messi would receive, but it is speculated to be a huge amount considering his status as one of the finest footballers of all time. PSG also hasn’t disclosed the entire financial package for the former Barcelona star.

PSG’s Fan Token Rallied Following Messi’s Transfer

Fan tokens have become popular in the world of sport. They are a type of cryptocurrency that allows the holders to vote on some minor decisions relating to their clubs. Some of the leading football clubs with fan tokens include Manchester City and AC Milan.

The PSG fan token has performed excellently over the past few days, thanks to Lionel Messi’s move to the football club. It rallied past the $48 mark earlier this week but has cooled down and is now trading around $41 per coin.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

The decline in price comes as the broader cryptocurrency market enters a consolidation period after rallying in the past few days. BTC has dropped to the $45k level while Ether is also trading above $3,100. With Lionel Messi now a PSG player, it would be interesting to see how the fan token would perform over the next few months, especially when he starts playing football matches again.

Bitcoin’s Rally to $90K+ Back on Track

Last week, see here, I showed the Bullish Elliott Waves (EWP) option for Bitcoin (BTC), looking for a rally to initially mid-$40Ks (its 200-day simple moving average (SMA)) before a multi-week pullback should happen. In finer detail, I had placed a wave-iv of wave-1 label at around the August 3 low of $37718, expecting a wave-v of 1 higher to commence soon. Bitcoin bottomed a daily later at $37526 and is now trading at $46.5K. Thus, so far, so good.

Figure 1. Bitcoin daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

A break below Monday’s low at $42818 is the Bulls’ first warning

Last week I found, “Because one can always find a bullish or bearish data point to support one’s biased view, it is the weight of the evidence approach that allows for a much more objective interpretation. In this case, it is rather apparent the weight of the evidence is predominantly bullish. All BTC now needs to do is reclaim its 200d SMA.” Thus, my objective analyses, which my premium crypto trading members bank on, pointed in the right direction, and Bitcoin has now reclaimed its 200d SMA.

Given that the daily chart is still Bullish

  • price is above all its SMAs and those are rising.
  • Note the four green arrows at the upper left corner of the chart. It’s called “the traffic light,” and it means “GO” when it is green.
  • And the currency is above its Ichimoku cloud as well,

A possible more Bullish alternative should be considered. Namely, the current red wave-v can subdivide higher to $58-59K. But, I find that option less likely because of the divergences on the technical indicators and overbought money flow. Thus, a break below the 200d SMA from current levels is a first warning sign for the bears that the (black) major-2 wave is likely underway. In contrast, a break below Monday’s low ($42818, red horizontal arrow) increases those odds even more as the cryptocurrency makes lower lows.

Bottom line: Last week, I found, “If BTC can hold above $35495 from now on (the red wave-i high made on June 24) and rallies towards its 200d SMA from around current levels, then the chart shows a perfect setup for five waves higher since the June 22 low. That would significantly increase the odds for a pullback, wave-2, before a solid rally to ideally new all-time highs; wave-3.” The cryptocurrency did just that and even gave us a little more upside. Thus my preferred POV remains BTC should see a decent pullback soon before rallying again. Alternatively, since upside surprises and downside disappoints in Bull markets, a continued $58-59K is not entirely unlikely. The Bears will now have to break $30K to target $20K.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AMC Will Start Accepting Bitcoin For U.S. Tickets, Concessions This Year

The adoption of Bitcoin has grown massively this year, and it is expected to continue, with AMC Entertainment the latest corporate body, to start accepting the leading cryptocurrency.

AMC To Start Accepting Bitcoin Soon

The chairman and CEO of AMC Entertainment, Adam Aron, revealed yesterday that the company would start accepting Bitcoin. He made this known during the company’s Q2 earnings call yesterday, a move that would make it easy for people to further spend their bitcoins.

AMC Entertainment Holdings currently runs the largest movie theatre chain in the United States, and the company intends to start to accept BTC payments for tickets and concessions by the end of the year.

The chairman said, “We are also in the preliminary stage of now exploring how else AMC can participate in this new burgeoning cryptocurrency universe, and we’re quite intrigued by potentially lucrative business opportunities for AMC if we intelligently pursue further serious involvement with cryptocurrency.”

At the moment, it is unclear the technology AMC intends to use to process the payment. However, the adoption would be a big one for Bitcoin as AMC currently has 593 theaters in the United States and 335 international locations. If the move is successful, the company could look to start accepting BTC at other theater chains globally.

In addition to Bitcoin, Aron added that AMC Entertainment also wants to start accepting Apple Pay and Google Pay payments by the end of the year.

Bitcoin Is Slowly Recovering From Its Recent Slump

Bitcoin began 2021 in excellent fashion, with its price rising by over 100% to reach an all-time high close to the $65k mark. However, the value began to drop in May, with Bitcoin’s price dropping to the $30k level for most of June and July.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

However, the trend is slowly changing as Bitcoin’s price has been appreciating in the past few weeks. Earlier this week, BTC’s price rose past the $45k mark, and it is currently targeting the next resistance level at $50k. BTC is currently up by 4.85% and could rally further over the next few hours and days.

Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token Rally In Anticipation Of A Lionel Messi Transfer

The Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG) is up by over 40% in the past 24 hours as speculations mount that Lionel Messi would be joining the football shortly.

PSG Token Up By Over 40%

PSG token is one of the best performing cryptocurrencies currently in the market. The token is currently up by more than 40% in the past 24 hours, outperforming the major coins in the market. Currently, the PSG token is trading at $48 per coin, up from the $34 it was trading yesterday.

PSG  is a fan token for the Paris Saint-Germain football club. The token holders acquire voting rights to influence the Paris Saint-Germain football club. Year-to-date, the PSG token has performed excellently. PSG began 2021 trading at $12.7 per coin, rising to its all-time high of $56 on April 26th.

However, the crypto market has consolidated since then, with prices down by over 40% from their all-time highs. The price of the PSG token is also down from its all-time high. However, by rallying to $48 over the past 24 hours, PSG is currently up by 300% year-to-date.

BTC/USD chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

Messi’s Anticipated Transfer Could Be The Catalyst Behind PSG’s Rally

The rally of the PSG token could have been fueled by the expected move of Lionel Messi to the French capital. Messi is expected to complete a move to Paris Saint-Germain in the coming hours or days after FC Barcelona announced that they could not retain his services due to the financial restrictions put in place by the Spanish Football body.

Lionel Messi is considered to be one of the finest footballers in history, winning 6 Balon D’Or awards in a stellar career. He is expected to scoop up his seventh award this year after guiding Argentina to a first major trophy in over two decades.

Football fans are excited about the prospect of Lionel Messi lining up with Neymar Jr and Kylian Mbappe to form a deadly attack. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have performed excellently in recent days. BTC finally crossed the $43k mark and is looking to surpass the $45k resistance level in the coming hours.