CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index rose during the session on Monday as we have filled the gap from back in early August. Now that is happen, we got a nice bounce during the “risk on rally” for Monday. With this being said, we think that we are going to continue to bounce around in the consolidation area.

However,  France’s credit rating has been downgraded by Moody’s again, and as result we very well could see this index fall during the Tuesday session. With this being stated, below the €3300 level we would become aggressively short of this market. As far as buying is concerned, we may hold just simply because of the overnight action.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 had a horrible week, breaking to fresh lows below the recent consolidation area. However, we see the €3300 level as being substantially supportive. Is because of this that we are not ready to start selling on a longer-term basis quite yet. However, if we get a daily close below €3300 that we are looking for, all bets are often were willing to short this market and aim for €3000. As far as buying is concerned, we really don’t have much of a base case to do so on the longer-term charts.

 

CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 had a very poor showing on Friday as the market closed at the very lows of the session. We did manage to close above the €3300 level however, so there is still open support. Looking forward, this market certainly looks like it’s slanted to the downside, and that we could see some serious weakness going forward. With Europe and recession, this is no surprise.

Looking at the €3300 level, we think that is crucial in determining which direction this market goes in the meantime. On a supportive candle in that general vicinity, we would be willing to take a short-term trade to the upside. However, if we get a nice solid close well below that on the daily chart, we think this would signal further selling and could perhaps run another €300 lower.

 

CAC 40 Index Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index fell during the session on Thursday as the €3400 level continues to offer all kinds of problems for the buyers. We do see the €3350 level as support, and need to break down below it in order to become bearish and sell this market. Currently, it does look like we’re going sideways, but with a definite bearish bias. On a break below the €3300 level, we would become aggressively short of this market as we think that would signal a massive leg down.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index fell during the session after initially gaining on Wednesday. The €3400 level seem to be far too restrictive and strong for the buyers, and as such we turned and fell down to the €3359 level at the end of the day. With the significant selloff on Wall Street in the afternoon, it does appear that the CAC is ready to continue falling. Unless we get some type of good price action in Asia, it’s very likely that the French index will fall for the session. If so, we believe that €3300 will offer support, but isn’t going to be that difficult to overcome for the sellers. As far as buying is concerned, we would have to see a break of the highs from Friday.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC markets fell during the session on Tuesday, after forming a hammer on Monday. This is normally a fairly bearish sign, and as such we think that the market is starting to lose a bit of its steam. Nonetheless, we still look it is being consolidated, and because of that we are not willing to sell until we get down below the €3350 level as it is the “line in the sand” for us.

If we managed to break the top of the hammer that was formed on Monday, this would of course be a very bullish sign and have us buying this market and aiming for €3500. With all this being said, the market looks very back and forth and choppy to us presently.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index futures fell during the session as did most European indices. However, by the end of the Monday trading day, we found that this market had bounced and recovered in order to form a hammer. This suggests that we will stay within the previous consolidation area, and as such a break of the highs from Monday would be a signal to buy this market and aim for the €3500 level.

Whether or not we can break out is a completely different question, but it does seem as if the market is “happy” to play this range. As long as that’s the case, we might as well too. However, if we managed to break the bottom of the hammer from Monday, this would be extremely bearish sign.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 futures had a volatile time of it over the last five sessions as the market went both to the €3500 level, and the €3400 level. It managed to break both of these barriers and simply contract yet again. The market looks very tight at this point, and as such we do not think that there is much in the way of a longer-term trading opportunity.

However, if we smash through the €3350 level, we think that a short position could be initiated. If we managed to break above the €3600 level, this would be an obviously bullish sign that would have us buying and holding this futures contract. Until then, it is very difficult to be involved in this from a longer-term perspective.

 

CAC 40 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 futures had an interesting session on Friday as we trying to plunge lower, but found support at the end of the day. The resulting hammer suggests to us that we could get a bit of a bounce during the session today, and as such we are willing to buy this futures contract if we break the highs from the Friday session.

With all that being said, this is a shorter-term trade and not anything we plan on holding onto for far too long. In fact, we would be willing to take profits at roughly €3500 as that will be the area where serious selling pressure could return. As for selling, if we managed to break down below the hammer and the €3360 level, we would begin to sell in that vicinity.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40s Futures fell precipitously from the €3500 level on Thursday as global risk appetite absolutely shrank. Looking forward, it has to be said that there is a nice thick support zone between here and the €3300 level. So having said that is very difficult to get overly bearish quite yet. Obviously this candle suggests that we could go lower, but we need to clear €3300 in order to do so. As far as buying is concerned, we would have to see a supportive candle which of course we haven’t seen quite yet.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 futures initially rose during the session on Wednesday, but found quite a bit of resistance at the €3500 level yet again and as such fell from that area. The fact that Germany looks like it’s slowing down now of course weighed upon all European indices and France would have been no different. This market looks like it’s trying to fall down to the €3400 level, and possibly lower. It will test of support area in that general vicinity, and it is there that we look for buying opportunities if we get the rent supportive candle.

If not, we see that the €3300 level is rather supportive as it was the beginning of a significant gap several months ago. The Greeks are currently trying to pass austerity measures in the parliament, and if they do we should see another Band-Aid put upon the huge gaping wound that is the country of Greece right now. This should by a little bit more time for French banks, so we feel that the financial sector in France should help pull the markets higher and this does happen.

The market overall has been grinding sideways, and because of this we are not as an enthusiastic about trading this market in till we get outside of the recent consolidation area. Although we see a tightened consolidation area between €3400 and €3500, it is simply the inner consolidation in a much larger consolidation area that runs up to the €3550 level and down to the €3300 level.

Looking forward, we feel that once we break out of this larger consolidation area, we should have a longer-term signal that should help continue to drive the market in a particular direction. Until that happens however, we feel this will be a short-term traders market that will see a bounce between this 100 pip area. We will sell towards the top on weak candles off of shorter-term time frames, as well as by off the bottom of the tighter consolidation range off of shorter-term charts that show buy signals.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 futures fell initially during the Tuesday session, but bounced in order to form a nice looking hammer at the end of the day. This is immediately after the shooting star that was formed on Monday, and repelled at the €3500 level. This looks like we are ready to start grinding higher again, but it is so messy in this general vicinity with the conflicting candles that we are simply going to stay on the sidelines.

It would take a significant break higher in order for us to start buying again. €3600 would be the resistance level that we would be more than willing to start taking long-term buying positions. As for selling, we need to see the €3350 level break as support in order for us to do so.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 futures market rose during the session on Monday, but was repelled at the €3500 level. This is getting close to the top of the consolidation area that we’ve seen recently, and as such a pullback from that level is an overly surprising.

The candle form for the session was a shooting star however, and this of course has of thinking that this market will continue to grind back down towards the €3400 level. On a break of the bottom of the candle for the session, we are willing to take a small position short of the French markets.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

 

CAC 40 Futures for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC futures gained over the last week, as we continue to consolidate between 3350 and 3550. It is at the €3350 level that we would consider selling the futures as this market would be showing a little bit of a break down at that point. However, we see an obvious level at €3600 for a buy signal as it would show resistance giving way. In the meantime, this market looks like it’s very tight and wants to consolidate – which of course is not conducive for the long term trader.

 

CAC 40 Futures for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC futures rose during the Friday session, as the €3400 level continues to act as support. However, we see the €3500 level as resistance. In other words, this market is wound up extremely tight. It is probably one of our least favorite European indices at the time, as it simply seems “stock” at this point in time. With this in mind, we have obvious levels of €3500 in order to start buying and below the €3400 level in order to start selling. It should be noted however that many of the indices around the world look extremely vulnerable at the end of the day Friday.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Index November 2, 2012, Technical Analysis

Paris had a nice rally in the afternoon after initially falling for the Thursday session. The €3400 level holds as support yet again, and suggests that this market is trying to find some type of consolidation move. We do see the €3550 level as potential resistance, so we think although this bar is impressive; the potential move is probably somewhat limited. With all this being said, we do believe in the overall strength of this market, and as such would look to dips as additional buying opportunities until we get below the €3350 level.

 

CAC 40 Futures Index November 2, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Index November 2, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

French stocks rose during the session on Wednesday, but gave back most of the gains in order to form a shooting star. We currently sit just above the €3400 level, which has been the beginning of a significant amount of support. In fact, we feel that this level show support all the way down to the €3300 level, and as such we are not willing to sell at this point in time.

If you have to invest in European stocks, Germany or France would be the place to do it. However, with the taxes being raised so drastically in France, it’s hard to believe that capital isn’t leaving the country. With that being said, why would anybody want to invest in French stocks? This is going to be a continuing problem going forward, as it is only a matter time before taxes on capital gains gets larger as well.

Looking at this chart, it appears that we are essentially consolidating between the €3350 level, and the €3550 level. The market has been choppy overall, and this is to be expected in a situation where we know that there are massive debt issues in Europe, but nobody really seems sure what to do about. Because of this, there’ll always be a bit of weight upon the shoulders of the European indices.

Looking forward, if we get a daily close above the €3600 level we would become massively and aggressively bullish of French stocks. More than likely, on a move higher, the financials will do quite well as this would probably be due to the fact that some type of workaround was done involving Spanish debt. As French banks are heavily leveraged to Spanish debt, any time we can get good news out Spain, it should continue to help French banks.

With this being said, we think that we will continue to chop around consolidate. However, longer-term trading dictates that above €3600, we would have to be long French financials. €3300 level would have us aggressively short of the CAC.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 futures index got a bit of a boost at the €3400 level on Tuesday as we formed a hammer. The continuation of consolidation looks to be what the market wants to do, and as such we are willing to go long of the futures market on a break of the Tuesday highs. We believe that the move will be capped at the €3550 level, so this is a short-term trade.

As for shorting this market, we would have to get underneath the €3300 level, as it is the bottom of a gap that formed back in the early part of August. We have been consolidating every since then, and as such we feel that more than likely this market will continue to do just that.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 had a very bullish session during the Monday trading hours, as the recent support at the €3400 level has been confirmed. It looks like we’re heading back into consolidation again, and as such we figure that he moved to €3500 is pretty much a given at this point. Because of this, we are actually long of the French index, and as such are aiming for €3500. As for selling, we do not see the opportunity to do so until we get well below the gap that was filled a couple of weeks ago.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

Parisian stocks obviously fell during the week, but what’s more important is that we got a bit of a bounce towards the end of trading. The market currently has a very obvious resistance point at the €3600 level, and as such for the long term trader this is a “gateway” to higher pricing. This is exactly what we’re waiting on, and will go aggressively long French stocks and the CAC futures market if we can get above the €3600 level on a daily close. Until then, we expect to continue to bounce around between €3350, and the €3600 level.

 

CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis