CAC 40 Index futures forecast for the week of December 17, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index had a strong week as we smash through the €3600 level. We have decisively broken out now, and we believe that this market will head to the €4000 level before it’s all said and done. Because of this, we are obviously bullish and already long of this market.

We think that any pullback to the 3600 level will now find quite a bit of support, and would be an opportunity to add to our position. As far shorting is concerned, we would have to break down below the €3500 level to even contemplate that at this point time. There have been so many large hedge funds around the world short the French markets that it appears this short squeeze is really starting to put momentum back into the CAC 40.

 

CAC 40 Index futures forecast for the week of December 17, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index futures forecast for the week of December 17, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 17, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index had a very neutral day on Friday, as we are simply “churning” in place. This makes sense, as we have seen such bullishness lately. We have recently broken out and above the €3600 level, so the fact that we are take a breather 50 points above isn’t that big of a surprise. After all, this was a very significant resistance level that has been overcome.

There are reports that major funds in London are pulling out of their shorts in France. There was a significant sized bet against the French economy, and it seems to be unwinding at this moment. Because of this, this market should continue much higher and we feel that a move to the €4000 level is certainly well within reason. It won’t happen overnight obviously, and it could be something that takes several months, but it does appear that this market will continue to be bullish as long as we can stay above the €3600 region.

Because of this, we are more than willing to buy bullish candles and pullbacks that show any signs of support. In fact, we hope to have a significantly large position in this futures market over the course of time. Scaling and would be suggested though, as we are heading towards a fairly illiquid time of year. Nonetheless, we think that this will be a trade that should work out quite well over the next several months.

If we managed to break above the €3660 level, we would have to start buying at that point as well as it would show continued momentum to the upside. This of course could happen, as we move sideways and take a breather, it could relieve the pressure to pullback.

We think that one of the biggest beneficiaries of this sudden French bullishness will be the financial sector. Remember, they’ve been beaten up quite ruthlessly because of debt that they have held in places such as Greece and Ireland. Now that the European Central Bank is willing to prop up these bond markets, it believes a significant amount of pressure on banks around the region.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 17, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 17, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Parisian index had a soft session for the first time in over a week as the markets failed to hold gains, and in fact dropped enough to form a shooting star. This shooting star looks like it’s ready to pullback the market, but we believe that the €3600 level will continue to offer support. In fact, we are more than willing to start buying contracts as we approach the €3600 level.

This recent breakout is significant in our opinion, and as a result we want to take advantage of. Undoubtedly, there will be plenty of traders that missed the initial move that are more than willing to jump in at this point time. This will become more and truer the closer we get to the €3600 level as it was the point of the breakout.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 14, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

Now that the CAC 40 index has managed to clear the €3600 level significantly in the futures market, we are very bullish of this market and believe that France will continue to see higher stock prices overall. We think the €3600 level is now the “floor” in the market, and fully expect to see continued bullishness going forward.

Because of this, we are buying on pullbacks in any signs of support going forward. We are not selling this market; it is obviously breaking down and heading to much higher levels. In fact, based upon the longer-term charts, we could see a move all the way of the €4000.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 13, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

We have been talking about the €3600 level in the CAC market for several days now, and Tuesday finally saw an explosion up words in this marketplace. Is because of this that there can be little doubt now that the level is broken and the direction is higher.

The candle closed at the very highs of the day on Tuesday, and as a result we think that any pullback at this point in time should be a buying opportunity, and we will be treated as such. A break above the highs of the Tuesday session also is a buying opportunity and we believe that this market has plenty of room to run going forward.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast December 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Parisian futures market had a slightly positive session on Monday, as we continue to find the €3600 level supportive. This looks like a launching spot for much higher pricing, as it is a long-term support and resistance zone. Because of this, we are very bullish of this market, and are currently trying to build a position and it.

On a break above the €3650 level, we feel that this market will continue much higher and we should see €4000 sometime next year. With this in mind, we are looking to add to our position at that point. Alternately, we feel that a break below the €3570 level will signal a failure and could have the market pullback to the €3500 level.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast December 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast December 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures forecast for the week of December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index futures rose for the week over the last five sessions, but more importantly closed above the all-important €3600 level. This suggests that we are going much higher, and we do suspect that a move to €3700 will, in very short order. However, we see much higher prices, as much as €4000 over the medium-term. Now that we have broken above the €3600 level, we have become very bullish of this market.

Selling is not going to be a possibility at this point time because we see far too many places that support could come back into play. Because of this, we think this is become essentially a buy-and-hold type of market going forward.

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index had a pretty wild back and forth session during the Friday session as we formed a long-legged doji for the day. We are currently at the top of an extended move, and have broken out above the €3600 level recently. Because of this, we may need to pullback a little bit and catch our breath before we continue higher. Nonetheless, we do like this market on a pullback will signs of support. We expect to see that support at the 3570 level, if we do fall from here. Alternately, if we managed to break above the 3620 level, we think this market could go much higher.

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Futures Forecast December 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC Index fell during most of the session on Thursday, but caught a significant bounce in order to form a hammer just above the €3600 level. Because of this, it does look like we’re getting ready to break out and a move above the highs for the Thursday session would be bullish enough for us to get long and interesting buy-and-hold type of position.

Alternately, if we managed to break down below the low of the Thursday session this would signify a “hanging man”, one of the more bearish candlestick patterns out there. However, we think that €3500 would step up for support if that did happen and as a result wouldn’t be looking for any type of large move. This move looks like we have broken out and come back to find support in the same general area in order to “prove” the validity of the zone that now could very easily be the floor of the market.

When you look at the €3600 level on the longer-term charts, you can see that it is indeed a very significant level to overcome. The fact that the French index could do so is a very bullish sign indeed. With this in mind, we think that a break of the highs from the session on Thursday will signify a new leg up in this market as we go forward.

We could see levels as high as 4000 in the next couple of months, and as a result we think this market will be one of the more interesting ones to follow. This lines up well considering that the core of Europe itself is doing fairly well, and this includes France, Germany, and the Netherlands. Because of this, the French stock market going up should not be much of a surprise.

As long as we can stay above the €3600 level, we find this is a “buying only” market, and will only do so. This could be the beginning of something rather special, and as a result we are very interested in paying attention. As for selling, we will become serious about it until we break below the €3500 level.

CAC 40 Futures Forecast December 7, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast December 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC futures did very well during the session on Wednesday, and even closed above the €3600 level. However, what was even more impressive was that we broke above the two previous shooting stars and order to do so. We now look at this is a very bullish market but need to see about 10 more points taken out to the upside in order to be completely comfortable with this move.

This is essentially because of the fact that the market looks at the €3600 level as significant from a longer-term perspective as well. We believe that if we can clear the €3610 level we should see a significant longer-term move, so we are more than willing to give this market a little bit more room to prove itself. As for selling, we don’t see the opportunity at the moment.

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

Paris had a fairly strong showing during the Tuesday trading session, but failed at the €3600 level. The failure ended up forming a shooting star, and this of course signals that we could get a bit of a pullback. However, the €3500 level looks like it could provide a bit of support now that we have formed the cluster last week, and as such we think that any pullback will more than likely simply be a set up for the breakout this coming. As for selling, we could take a short-term sell position on a break of the Tuesday lows, but we do fully expect €3500 to be far too supportive for a selloff to take out.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index futures did very little during the session on Monday, essentially standing still. We are at the very top of the recent consolidation area, and we saw a nice shooting star for the Friday candle that suggests that we may pullback from this area.

More than likely, this market will have trouble breaking above the €3600 level. We think it is more likely that this market will pull back to the €3500 level first, and as such we are willing to sell if we can break down below the lows from the Friday session.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 had a slightly positive week, but shied away from breaking out above the €3600 level yet again. Ultimately, it does look like a market wants to break out to the upside, but we need to get over that level to get the proper bullish signal in order to start buying on the longer time frame charts. With this in mind, we will wait until at least a daily close above €3600, and will not do anything to the upside until then. As for selling, anything below the lows of the session over the previous we would be enough to get us to start selling and aiming for the €3350 level.

 

CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index forecast for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index had initially tried to gain during the Friday session, but was repelled at the €3600 level yet again. Because of this, we formed a shooting star at the top of a large consolidation area. It simply looks like the market is not ready to break out and we could be falling back to the €3500 level in relatively short order.

The market has been consolidating for several months now, and with it being December, it’s very unlikely that we will have a sudden surge in interest to buy stocks. However, anything is possible and we will be watching the €3600 level as a possible launching point of buying.

On the downside, we see the €3500 level as a potential support area, but if it does get broken down, we could see this move back down to the €3350 level again. If that’s the case, there is definitely going to be a nice shorting opportunity as the market is so well-defined right now. You have to keep in mind that there are a lot of people out there looking at the same “obvious trade”, and as such once we start to fall this really could pick up some steam.

 

CAC 40 Index Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

 

 

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Parisian index had a very strong showing on Thursday, the futures markets even managed to break up and above the €3500 level. Now that we are well above it, it looks like we will make it a serious attempt on the €3600 level, which of course opens the pathways to much higher prices.

Although there are concerns about French debt, it should be noted that France and Germany are considered to be the strongest countries in the euro zone, and with that being said it is very likely that money is flowing into France from other places that are having trouble. Because of this, we think that assets in France will continue to be bought, but we need to see the €3600 level broken to the upside in order to start buying again. As for selling, a break below the lows from the Thursday session would be a significant momentum shift to the downside.

 

CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Futures Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

The index had a very interesting session on Wednesday as we plunged below the €3500 level, but bounced in order to form a hammer. This hammer suggests that we will continue higher, and a break above it could see a move up to the €3600 level. That is where the market becomes very bullish suddenly, and at that point in time it becomes a buy-and-hold proposition.

With this being said, we need to see more economic positivity, and also understand that a break down below the bottom of the hammer from the Wednesday session could also signal extreme bearishness. If we do break the bottom of that hammer, we would expect to see a return to the €3350 level. Either way, we think this is a very interesting market to pay attention to right now, and we will be watching.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index futures fell during the session on Tuesday, which of course would never been a huge surprise as the market continues to find significant resistance at the €3500 level. Because of this, we think we will continue to consolidate between €3350 and €3500, and as such we are willing to sell this market on a break of the lows from the Monday session, as it would show a bit more momentum to the downside. As far as buying is concerned, it is almost impossible because of the fact that there is such resistance between 3500 and 3600.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 Index futures rose during the session on Monday as the Parisian stock market does much better than most of its European counterparts. However, we are currently just below a significant amount resistance, so we need to see that cleared first before we start buying. We look at the next €100 as the major hurdle for this market to break out of.

If we get a daily close above €3600, we are more than willing to start buying the futures of in this market as it should continue much higher. This is a significant level not only for the near-term, but on the longer-term charts as well. With that being said, we think that a breakout here could really start the market much, much higher. This would more than likely coincide with some type of solution to European debt, or at least some type of “kick the can down the road” remedy.

After all, the markets have had plenty of reasons to bury euro for the last couple of years, yet have failed to do so. There seems to be a reason to always buy things European related, and as the French are part of the core and not the periphery, one has to think that there will be a certain amount of hope filled trading going forward.

The €3600 level is visible on the weekly and even monthly charts as being previous support and resistance. With this in mind, is very likely that we will see some type of reaction to this level. In fact, the last couple of weeks have been just that, a reaction to this level. However, it should be noted that we have failed to close below the €3300 level in order to start selling again. Because of this, we do think that eventually the breakout will come, even though we don’t necessarily agree with that idea.

This makes this area just above an ideal shorting opportunity as well. After all, we see a failure to get above the €3600 level again, and weakness in the market, we could begin to start shorting again aggressively. Because of this, we think that a week candle just above cousin the market right back down to the €3350 level.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index futures Forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

Paris had a strong showing over the last five sessions, but we still managed to stay within the recent consolidation area between €3350 and €3600. Because of this, we do not see a long-term opportunity until we get above the €3600 level, which looks very likely at this point time. After all, the lows are getting higher over the long run, and this does suggest that we are pressuring the market to the upside. However, it’s very likely that a move below the €3300 level would be a sign to start selling aggressively.

 

CAC 40 Index futures Forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index futures Forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Parisian stock index rose during the session on Friday as we continue to grind higher and attempt to get through the €3600 level. However, we are currently in an area that is far too elevated to make wise purchases at this point time. After all, if you are buying this market up here, you are simply chasing the trade.

However, we would be interested in selling this market if we get the right resistant candle. After all, it is a very resistive region, and would make sense we continue to fall from this area. However, if we do manage to get above that €3600 level, this would be a long-term buy-and-hold type of situation.

 

CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis
CAC 40 Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis