Technical Checks For Important CAD Pairs: 18.07.2018


Even after clearing the 1.3215-20 resistance-region, USDCAD needs to conquer the 1.3260-65 horizontal-area in order to extend its recovery towards the 1.3300 and the 1.3340 resistances. Though, pair’s ability to surpass the 1.3340 can escalate its north-run in direction to the June high of 1.3385 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 1.3460. In case the quote fails to cross the 1.3265 immediate barrier, it can revisit the 1.3220-15 zone, breaking which 1.3160 and an upward slanting TL, at 1.3125, may confine the pair’s following declines. It should also be noted that the pair’s additional downturn beneath the 1.3125 can drag it to the 1.3060, the 1.3030 and to the 1.3000 psychological magnet.


While USDCAD has another resistance to break after clearing an intermediate hurdle, the GBPCAD’s recent break of ascending trend-line can’t be termed as a sign of its plunge unless closing below the 1.7160 TL-mark on a daily basis. If the pair closes below 1.7160, the 1.7050 and the 1.7000 are likely supports that it could avail before testing the 1.6860 and the 1.6750 rest-points. On the upside, a D1 close beyond 1.7320 can trigger the pair’s recovery to the 1.7400, the 1.7460 and the 1.7550 resistances. However, pair’s break of 1.7550 may find it hard to confront the four-month old descending TL, at 1.7600, adjacent to the 100-day SMA level of 1.7635.


NZDCAD seems preparing itself to reach the 50-day SMA level of 0.8995 for one more time with 0.8965 acting as a halt during its rise. Should the pair rallies above 0.8995, the 0.9030 and the 0.9100 can please the buyers prior to challenging them with 100-day SMA level of 0.9130. Alternatively, the 0.8925 and the 0.8875 may entertain short-term sellers but the 0.8840 level, comprising seven-month long ascending TL, could limit the pair’s further weakness. Given the Bears’ refrain to respect the 0.8840 support, the 0.8800 and the 0.8780 might appear in their radar to target.


Following its break of four-week old ascending trend-line, the CADCHF is expected to re-test the 0.7530 horizontal-line, which if can’t stop the pair’s drop can register the 0.7500 and the 0.7470 numbers on the chart. Moreover, pair’s extended downside below 0.7470 could have 0.7425 as a buffer  ahead of highlighting the 0.7390 for traders. Meanwhile, 0.7580 and the 0.7600 can provide near-term cap to the prices before the 0.7620 resistance-line. In case the pair crosses 0.7620 line, the 0.7665 and the 0.7700 might become Bulls’ favorites.

Reversal on the USDCHF?

The new week starts for the USD on the back foot. The Greenback is loosing almost on every front. First troubles we could have seen already on Friday, so Today we do have a continuation of the movements that happened at the end of the last week.

One of the most technical setups can be seen on the USDCHF, where Friday ended with a bearish shooting star pattern. The place, where this pattern is present is not random as it is a long-term horizontal resistance (orange). In the smaller time frames, that shooting star is additionally shaped like the head and shoulders formation, which strengtheners the sell signal. Another bearish factor here can be the false breakout of the green horizontal resistance but for that, we need to see the USDCHF to decline slightly more than now. If You are still not convinced to go short, you can wait for the breakout of the long-term up trendline. Price closing below the black line will be a super strong sell signal.

USDCHF Daily Chart
USDCHF Daily Chart

As for now, the green support holds, which is a short-term positive factor but in my opinion, that area should be broken soon and sellers will finally have an occasion to make some money on this instrument.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Strong sell on the JPY, Silver tries a reversal

Silver tries to create a double bottom formation but for this, we need to see the price closing above the resistance on the 16.15 USD/oz. That would also create another hammer on the daily weekly chart.

USDJPY broke all major resistances along with the long-term down trendline. That is a strong buy signal, especially for long-term investors.

CADCHF is having an interesting price action setup, where the price bounced from the 38,2% Fibonacci and broke the lower line of the wedge. We also had a help from the BoC. Despite that, today the price goes a bit higher. The sell signal is still on the table though.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis