Technical Checks For USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY & CHF/JPY: 21.09.2017

USD/JPY

USDJPY’s reversal from 107.30 presently helps the pair to trade beyond 200-day SMA for the first-time in more than two months; however, it is necessary for the quote to register a daily closing above 112.20 SMA figure in order to aim for 113.60 and the resistance-line of a broader descending trend-channel, at 114.00 now. Given the pair’s successful north-run after 114.00, the 114.50 and the 115.50-55 might entertain buyers before pleasing them with 116.00 round-figure. Should prices fail to sustain recent strength and close beneath 112.20, the 100-day SMA level of 111.10, followed by 110.60 and the 110.00, might become nearby supports to observe. Moreover, pair’s additional weakness post-110.00 break can have the 108.60 and the 108.00 as intermediate halts prior to igniting the importance of the channel-support number of 107.25.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

Even after clearing the 148.50, the GBPJPY needs to justify its strength by surpassing the 151.50-70 horizontal-region on a weekly closing, which in-turn could open doors for its northward trajectory to the 153.60, the 154.70 and then to the 155.75. If the pair continues trading above 155.75, chances of its rally to the 158.00 can’t be denied. On the downside, the 150.00 continue being near-term important support for the pair, breaking which it can drop to 149.60 and to the 148.30. In case of the pair’s trading below 148.30, the 147.60 and the 146.50 could come-back on the chart.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

With more than three-month old ascending trend-line restricting the CADJPY’s immediate advances at 91.40, overbought RSI is likely to play to its role by dragging the quote towards the 90.30, the 90.00 and the 89.70-60 adjacent supports. Should the pair declines below 89.60, the 89.00 and the 88.15 can be considered as forthcoming rests. Meanwhile, a clear break of 91.40 may have to conquer the 91.65 on a daily closing basis, which in-turn could fuel the upside momentum in targeting 93.20-25 region, comprising highs marked in October and November 2015. If at all Bulls keep dominating the trading desks after 93.25, it seems wise to aim for 95.00 as resistance while being long.

CHF/JPY

chfjpy

Following its failure to break 116.35-40 horizontal-resistance, the CHFJPY is indicating its pullback to the 115.00, the 50-day SMA level of 114.70 and then to the 114.20 consecutive nearby supports. Though, five-month long upward slanting TL and 200-day SMA, around 113.75-70 might confine the pair’s following downside, which if broken could further weaken it to test 112.60 support-mark. Alternatively, 116.00 can offer immediate resistance to the pair ahead of making it confront the 116.35-40 area, clearing which it could escalate the recovery in direction to 117.40 and 117.80. If at all prices manage to trade above 117.80, the 118.00, the 118.40 and the 118.60 may raise small barriers during their journey to 119.00.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

USD waits for the CPI, GBP already got a boost from the BoE.

Today the main event of the day will be CPI from the US but the rate decision from the BoE also got some attention.

USDCAD ahead of the CPI is forming a bearish flag. This pair likes and uses trend continuation pattern so we should see a further drop, obviously if the CPI will allow us to do so.

EURGBP was pointing south even without the help of the BoE. We had a failed wedge false breakout, then a drop and a rectangle. The rectangle on the local support promoted the downswing and that what happened. Next support is on the 38,2% Fibonacci.

CADJPY is a good trading opportunity for the long-term traders. They can use here a massive inverse head and shoulder pattern and a positive swap point.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Technical Overview USD/JPY, EUR/JPY & CAD/JPY: 08.09.2017

USD/JPY

One after the other Geo-political threats, be it emanating from North Korea or from US hurricanes, have been helping the JPY to maintain its strength. As a result, the USDJPY finally broke 108.40-15 broad support-zone and indicates brighter chances of testing 107.00–106.90 horizontal-line. In case if overbought RSI fails to trigger the pair’s pullback around 106.90, the 106.50 and the 105.90 could come-back on the chart, while a break of 105.90 might please Bears with 105.30 and the 104.60 supports. Alternatively, 107.80 and the 108.40 could play their role as immediate support-turned-resistances, surpassing them might trigger the pair’s recovery in direction to 109.30 & 109.80 levels. During the quote’s additional upside beyond 109.80, the 110.50 can act as intermediate halt ahead of reigniting the importance of 111.00 – 111.20 area, comprising 100-day SMA.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

The EURJPY recently broke an upward slanting TL support and is now signaling to visit 129.35 support before resting on 129.15-10 horizontal-line. If prices decline below 129.10, the 128.95 and the 128.60 could become next targets but a break of 128.60 should open the door to witness 128.30 and the 127.80 numbers. Meanwhile, the 130.00, the 130.45 and the 130.75 are likely nearby resistances for the pair to confront before it could rise to 131.00 descending trend-line mark. Given the Bulls help the pair to clear 131.00, the 131.40, the 131.70 and the 61.8% FE level of 131.90 may entertain buyers.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

Having failed to clear the 89.65-80 region, the CADJPY now drops towards 88.45 and the 88.15 adjacent supports; however, an upward slanting trend-line, at 87.50, might restrict its further downside. Given the pair’s inability to respect 87.50, the 86.90 and the 86.30 could be considered as small barriers in the course to meet 85.35-45 area, encompassing 100-day SMA. On the upside, pair’s close beyond 89.20 may favor its recovery to conquer the 89.65-80 region and aim for 61.8% FE level, around 91.00; though 90.00 & 90.50 can act as pass-by halts. Additionally, pair’s successful trading above 91.00 makes it eligible to flash 91.55 and 92.00 north-side figures.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

BoC showed how it is done, ECB will follow?

There is no much time to digest the yesterday’s move by BoC as today we do have an ECB and Mario Draghi and all eyes are shifted there. Most of the instruments on the market continue the recent trend. Precious metals are climbing higher and USD is going down. One of the few exceptions is, for example, DAX, which is bravely climbing higher ending mid-term bearish correction.

DAX broke the upper line of the wedge and the crucial resistance on the 12300. With that on board, the upswing looks legitimate and sustainable.

CADJPY is our proposal for trading the rise of the interest rate instead of the oversold USDCAD. Here the upswing broke the neckline of the long-term iH&S formation which can be perceived as a strong bullish sign.

EURGBP is waiting for the decision inside a wedge, which is correcting a recent up trend. The sentiment is positive but regardless of the technical analysis, the direction will be shown by the ECB.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

RBA, BoC & ECB Deliver Interest Rate Decisions

  • On Tuesday the RBA will announce their interest rate decision. Although the RBA has indicated it is in no hurry to move the benchmark cash rate from 1.5%, the accompanying announcement will be closely watched – what type of comments do you think we can expect from the central bank?

Macroeconomic data out of Australia has been relatively upbeat in recent weeks, with the only particularly disappointing figures being this morning’s Company Gross Operating Profits for the 2nd quarter, down 4.5%, reversing most of the 5.8% rise in the previous quarter.

With macroeconomic data out of China last week being on the positive side, China’s manufacturing sector seeing a pickup in activity, the RBA will likely continue to talk positively about the global economic outlook, whilst raising some concerns over the rising tension in the Korean Peninsula following the latest nuclear test that could unravel economic growth in the region should there be any military response.

Domestically, recent labour market data was a little weak, which will likely lead to some further cautious language in the statement, with wage growth continuing to be lackluster another issue faced by the RBA, with a negative outlook on the labour market likely to be taken as a further delay to any shift in monetary policy. But, the RBA will have to acknowledge solid growth through the 2nd quarter, which will be reflected in the 2nd quarter GDP numbers due out on Wednesday.

The RBA Holds Rates, Bringing the EUR and GBP into Focus

We would expect the RBA to continue to be wary of AUD appreciation, however, and the likely complications to the economic recovery, with the AUD sitting currently sitting just shy of $0.80 levels, pegged back by the current risk off sentiment in the market.

  • Shortly after Canada’s Balance of Trade is released, the Bank of Canada will also reveal whether they intend to change their interest rate. Although the market expects no change, how would you advise Loonie traders to position themselves?

There’s certainly plenty of debate over what to expect in this week’s Bank of Canada monetary policy decision, with the general consensus siding with rates to be unchanged for now. Things have certainly been bright for the Canadian economy, with the economy outpacing that of the U.S and there’s just cause for the Bank to make another move to reverse the rate cuts back in 2015.

Strong trade data suggests that the Bank may be able to accept some degree of loonie upside, with concerns over rising household debt likely to certainly make a case for a rate hike before the end of the year, with the central bank looking to peg back growth contributions from household debt and the housing sector.

While the markets may initially be disappointed should the Bank of Canada hold back on a move, the forward guidance will be key and ultimately, monetary policy divergence sits firmly in the hands of the Loonie, suggesting that further upward momentum is likely in the near-term.

  • Euro Area GDP 3rd estimate will be released on Thursday and will be followed by the interest rate announcement from the ECB. These are two events likely to have a big impact on the market – do you think Thursday will be a bullish or bearish day for the Euro?

From a GDP perspective, macroeconomic data released out of the Eurozone since the 2nd GDP estimate that can influence the 3rd estimate GDP numbers on Thursday included the Eurozone’s trade balance, the trade surplus widening at the end of the 2nd quarter, suggesting that the GDP numbers will at least be in line with 2nd estimates. With economic indicators continuing to show growth through the 3rd quarter, the 3rd estimate figures are likely to be EUR positive, posing the question to the ECB on whether they can continue to hold back on a shift in monetary policy.

The ECB monetary policy decision later in the day on Thursday is unlikely to catch the markets off guard, with few if any expecting the ECB to move on rates or begin tapering its asset purchase program, though the press conference that follows will almost certainly impact the EUR.

Recent guidance from members of the ECB has been that the ECB will likely refrain from unveiling any plans on a tapering to the asset purchase program, preferring to wait until the December gathering.

With time running out, it may be a tall order for Draghi to get through the press conference without having to disclose some views on the tapering, which will make for an interesting press conference, particularly with the growing concerns over EUR strength, the FED’s dovish stance continuing to peg back central banks who had been looking to begin making a policy shift.

I would expect the events to be bullish for the EUR, talk of positive momentum in the Eurozone economy and the knowledge of a likely imminent tapering to the asset purchasing program certainly positives for the EUR.

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 30.08.2017

USD/JPY

Even if 108.26 offered much required upside trigger to the USDJPY on Tuesday, the pair presently struggles to clear a month-old descending trend-line resistance, at 110.10, which indicate its pullback to 109.40 and the 109.00 nearby supports. During the pair’s follow-on declines after 109.00, the 108.65 and the 108.25 may act as intermediate halts before dragging it towards 61.8% FE level of 107.90. In case if the quote manages to surpass 110.10 TL, it can quickly rise to 110.90 and the 111.50 resistances while 112.30 could restrict its further recovery. Moreover, pair’s successful trading above 112.30 rejuvenates expectations for witnessing 112.80 & 113.50 on the screen.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Unlike USDJPY, the EURJPY recently cleared the 131.35 resistance and is aiming the 132.00 upward slanting TL that holds the door for its further advances in direction to 61.8% FE level of 133.10. Should prices keep rallying beyond 133.10, the 133.35-40 and the 134.50 might please Bulls. Alternatively, a daily closing below 131.35, also conquering the 131.00 mark, may fetch the pair to 130.00 and then to the 129.50 rest-points; however, 50-day SMA level of 129.20, adjacent to an ascending trend-line support of 128.30, may try confronting the Bear power. Given the sellers’ dominance flash a sub-128.30 figure on the chart, it seems wise to expect 127.45-55 region’s comeback.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

CADJPY is another JPY pair which is trading close to its near-term resistance. The pair currently aims to challenge the 88.15-25 horizontal-line, break of which can help it visit the 89.00 and then the July high, around 89.70. If at all buyers continue preferring the pair after 89.70, the 90.00 psychological-mark and the 61.8% FE level of 91.10 are likely north-side numbers to entertain them. Meanwhile, 87.30 and the 86.80 may be considered as immediate supports for the pair but an upward slanting TL, at 86.55, can restrict the pair’s decline afterwards. In case of the pair’s additional downside below 86.55, the 86.00 could play its role of a barrier ahead of reigniting the importance of 85.45-30 region.

CHF/JPY

chfjpy

Although CHFJPY trades at the highest level in a month, the 115.35-50 resistance-zone, including 50-day SMA, may confine the pair’s additional upside and can trigger its pullback towards 114.50 and the 100-day SMA level of 114.15. In case of the pair’s following declines below 114.15, the 113.50 and the ascending TL figure 112.85 should be given proper attention. On the upside, a daily close beyond 115.50 can extend the pair’s advances to 116.00 and the 116.40 resistances while 117.00 and the 117.80 seem crucial then after. If at all the optimists keep respecting the pair’s north-run above 117.80, the July month high of 118.60 and the 120.00 round-figure might play their roles.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Checks For USD/JPY, USD/CAD & CAD/JPY: 24.08.2017

USD/JPY

Although six-month old descending trend-line continue signaling USDJPY’s downside, the 108.50-40 horizontal-line seems confining the pair’s near-term downside and indicates brighter chances of its pullback to 109.80 before extending the recovery towards 110.20 TL resistance. Given the pair’s ability to surpass 110.20 on a daily closing basis, it becomes capable enough to aim for 111.00 round-figure but 100-day SMA level, near 111.15-20, may restrict its following advances. On the contrary, quote’s daily close below 108.40 may further strengthen the Bears in demanding 107.50 and the 106.95 supports. Incase if sellers continue dominating prices after 106.95, the 106.00 and the 105.50 are likely halts that can entertain traders.

USD/CAD

usdcad

Contrast to USDJPY, the USDCAD has more room towards south before it can test the short-term descending trend-channel support, at 1.2480, breaking which can deflate the pair to revisit 1.2450 and the July-month low near 1.2410. Should sellers continue maintaining their pessimistic outlook for the pair and drags it below 1.2410, also clear 1.2400 mark, the 1.2300 can offer an intermediate stop during the southward trajectory in direction to 61.8% FE level of 1.2230. Meanwhile, the 1.2610 and the 1.2645, comprising channel-resistance, may limit the pair’s immediate upside, which if broken enables it to stretch the recovery to 1.2690. However, the 1.2760-80 region, comprising 50-day SMA becomes a tough resistance-zone for prices to cross which can open the door for their north-run to 1.2850-55.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

With the CAD being comparatively stronger than JPY, the CADJPY currently heads to confront 87.30-40 horizontal-line, break of which could enable the pair’s rise to channel-resistances figure of 88.00. During the pair’s sustained trading above 88.00, the 88.30 and the 88.60-65 could offer small barriers ahead of pushing Bulls to expect 89.00 resistance-mark. Alternatively, the 86.90 and the 86.50-45, including channel-support, can be guessed as stops if the pair reverses from present levels. Though, break of 86.45 can magnify the pair’s weakness by fetching it to the 86.00 and the 85.30 supports.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

USD/CAD Flat Top Ascending Triangle Uptrend

The USD/CAD has been in a steady uptrend. The price has formed an ascending flat top triangle that suggest an uptrend continuation. But the price has already reached the W H4 camarilla pivot so bulls need to be careful. If the pair breaks 1.2760 then 1.2805 will be possible. If there is no breakout to the upside then a retracement towards the POC 1.2700-15 (50.0, D L3, ascending triangle trend line, EMA89) will be possible. New buyers might appear within the POC zone and spike the price up towards the 1.2760 and above mentioned targets. However, bulls should pay attention to 1.2700 break to the downside. If that happens, the pair might experience a temporary weakness leading to 1.2656-45 zone.

USD/CAD 1H Chart
USD/CAD 1H Chart

Daily technical analysis is written by Nenad Kerkez, a senior analyst at Admiral Markets

CAD/JPY Has Potential to Rally from Inverse Head-and-Shoulders

After hitting its multi-year low against the Japanese yen back in November of 2016, the Canadian dollar has done a great deal of recovering even though the first half of 2017 was a pure downtrend for the loonie. The current upward wave is completing the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on a weekly timeframe.

CAD/JPY Weekly Chart
CAD/JPY Weekly Chart

Above, you can see the pattern marked with the yellow lines. Although, the neckline seems to be broken, the currency rate has not yet reached my entry level, which is positioned with a 10% buffer distance. The green line will serve as my take-profit level — I have placed it at 100% of the pattern’s height above the neckline. The low of the breakout candle will serve as my stop-loss. If the breakout candle trades mostly above the neckline, use the low of the previous candle (or the first one that qualifies). I will ignore bearish breakouts from this formation as an inverted head-and-shoulder is a reversal pattern, which should trigger an uptrend after a long decline.

This post was originally published by EarnForex

Technical Overview For USDCAD, EURCAD, GBPCAD & CADJPY: 20.07.2017

USD/CAD

Irrespective of the USDCAD’s latest bounce from 1.2575, a week-long descending trend-line presently confines the pair’s recovery around 1.2635. Considering the USD weakness, chances of the 1.2600 and the 1.2575 come-back are high, breaking which 61.8% FE level of 1.2555 and the 1.2500 mark might give rise to expectations of a short-covering. Should Bears refrain to respect 1.2500, the 1.2485 and the 1.2460, which signifies 2016 low, could gain attention. On the contrary, break of 1.2635 TL can extend recent pullback moves to the 1.2680, the 1.2700 and then to the 1.2725 consecutive resistances. In case of the pair’s sustained trading above 1.2725, it becomes capable enough to challenge the 1.2770 resistance-mark, which if broken can help buyers to target 1.2800 round-figure.

EUR/CAD

eurcad

Unlike USDCAD, the EURCAD has been struggling with a five-month old ascending trend-line support of 1.4500, breaking which 200-day SMA level of 1.4430 might try to limit the quote’s additional downturn. Given the sellers’ dominance drag prices below 1.4430 on a daily closing basis, the 1.4350 and the 1.4230 supports should be wise to expect while being short. In case if the upward slanting TL triggers the pair’s U-turn, the 1.4600 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.4680, adjacent to descending trend-line figure of 1.4720, seem important resistances to watch. If at all the pair’s recovery stretches beyond 1.4720, the 1.4830 and the 1.4900 are likely following north-side numbers to appear on the chart.

GBP/CAD

gbpcad

With the six-week old descending trend-line successfully restricting the GBPCAD’s up-moves, the pair is currently re-testing the 1.6350 lows before looking at the 1.6300 support. However, the 1.6230 support-confluence, comprising downward slanting TL and 61.8% FE, may confine the pair’s further downside, failing to which can drag it to 1.6200 and then to 1.6115-20 support-zone. Meanwhile, 1.6450 can offer immediate resistance to the pair, breaking which aforementioned TL, at 1.6550, could play its role. Should buyers propel prices beyond 1.6550, the 1.6690 and the 1.6720 seem important levels to observe.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

While an immediate ascending trend-line favors the CADJPY’s up-moves, the week-long descending TL, at 89.15, becomes crucial for buyers to wait for before expecting the 89.30 reprint. Should the pair manage to please Bulls with 89.30 clearance, it can rise to 61.8% FE level of 89.80 and then to the 90.00 round-figure. Alternatively, the 88.75 TL support and 88.45 are expected nearby rests for the pair, breaking which 88.25-20 horizontal-region seem crucial support. Given the pair’s break of 88.20, it can gradually come down to 88.00, 87.75 and the 87.40 consecutive supports.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

 

Technical Checks For USD/CAD, GBP/CAD & CAD/JPY: 07.07.2017

USD/CAD

Although 1.2910 triggered the USDCAD’s U-turn during early weekdays, the pair failed to surpass 1.3010-15 horizontal-line and is presently struggling between the same 1.2910 – 1.3015 region ahead of the monthly labor markets numbers from US & Canada. Considering the upbeat expectations from US jobs report, coupled with declining Crude prices, chances of the pair’s upside are higher than the otherwise; however, 1.3010-15 and the fortnight long descending trend-line number of 1.3035 become crucial for traders to watch. Should Bulls’ dominance help the pair to surpass 1.3035 TL, the 1.3075 and the 1.3130 are likely following resistances to appear on the chart. Alternatively, a surprise disappointment from US details can drag the quote to 1.2950 and the 1.2925 supports prior to portraying the 1.2910 re-test. Given the pair’s additional decline after 1.2910 break, 61.8% FE level of 1.2865 and the 1.2820 can be aimed while being short.

GBP/CAD

gbpcad

With the recently released downbeat UK Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance, the GBP registered noticeable decline against majority of its counterparts. The same is the case with GBPCAD which is now aiming to test 1.6680 support; though, lower-line of a month-long descending trend-channel, at 1.6665, might restrict the pair’s further drops. If Pound Bears neglect to respect 1.6665 mark, 61.8% FE level of 1.6590 and the April low around 1.6510 can be expected as supports. Meanwhile, the 1.6870 and the 1.6920 are likely nearby resistances that may limit the pair’s recovery before the channel-resistance figure of 1.6945 comes into play. When there prevails an additional buying momentum after 1.6945, the 1.7000 psychological magnet, the 1.7080 and the 1.7165-70 horizontal-line should be flashed in buyers’ radar.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

Considering the CADJPY’s repeatedly failed attempts to clear the 87.70-75 horizontal-line, together with overbought RSI, the pair’s U-turn towards 86.85 and then to the 86.10 becomes more expected but the 85.90-80 area might limit its further downside. In case if 85.80 fails to sustain the selling pressure, the 84.80 and the 84.30 should gain importance as following supports. On the contrary, pair’s break of 87.75 enables it to target the 88.00, the 88.50 and the 89.00 round-figure before looking at the 90.00 resistance-mark. During the pair’s extended up-moves beyond 90.00, the 90.55 and the 91.50 are likely landmarks to observe.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Checks For USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, NZD/CAD & CAD/CHF: 29.06.2017

USD/CAD

Having cleared a year-long upward slanting trend-line, the USDCAD is now struggling with 1.3000 – 1.2995 horizontal-support in order to stretch its south-run towards the 1.2960 and the 1.2900 rest-points. In case of the pair’s additional weakness below 1.2900, the 1.2830 and the 1.2760 might offer intermediate halts prior to flashing 1.2650-55 on the chart. However, oversold RSI and presence of strong support-region indicates brighter chances of the pair’s pullback to 1.3060, 1.3125 and the 1.3150 consecutive resistances. Given the quote’s extended recovery beyond 1.3150, the 1.3200, the 1.3280 and the 200-day SMA level of 1.3340 can entertain follow-on Buyers ahead of pushing them to conquer with 1.3385 resistance-line.

EUR/CAD

eurcad

EURCAD’s failure to extend its recovery beyond 1.4980 signals it’s another drop in direction to 1.4730-25 horizontal-line with 1.4800 and the 1.4755 being nearby supports to avail. Should the pair refrains from respecting the 1.4730-25 region, it can quickly plunge to 1.4660 and the 1.4600 round-figure ahead of meeting 1.4530 and the 1.4490 supports. Alternatively, 1.4900 and the 1.4980 are expected immediate resistances that the pair needs to surpass before aiming the 1.5000 – 1.5010 horizontal-resistance, which if broken could help stretch the advances towards 1.5125 and the 1.5210. If at all Bulls dominate prices after 1.5210 break, the 1.5260 is likely a buffer that can be availed during their rally to 61.8% FE level of 1.5480.

NZD/CAD

nzdcad

NZDCAD recently broke 0.9510-15 support-confluence, comprising 50-day SMA & celeven-week old ascending trend-line, which in-turn favors the pair’s decline to 0.9470 and then to the 100-day SMA level of 0.9445. If Bears aren’t satisfied with 0.9445 break, they can further fetch the quote to 0.9400, 0.9380 and then the 0.9350 support-levels. Meanwhile, a daily closing 0.9515 could negate the latest breakdown and might rejuvenate the pair’s pullback to 0.9550, 0.9590 and the 0.9620 resistances. Moreover, pair’s successful trading above 0.9620, raises hopes to witness 0.9660, 0.9690 and the 0.9710 numbers on the chart.

CAD/CHF

cadchf

Following its successful bounce from 50-day SMA, the CADCHF now confronts more than four-month old descending trend-line, at 0.7360, which if broken on a daily closing basis, can help buyers target 100-day SMA level of 0.7400. During the pair’s further advances beyond 0.7400, the 0.7430 and the 0.7465 can mark their presence while 0.7500 & 0.7530 become eagerly awaited. On the downside, 0.7360 and the 0.7345 can offer adjacent supports to the pair, breaking which 0.7300 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.7265 comes into play. Given the Bears dominance after 0.7265, the 0.7190 and the 0.7120 can be alive in their radar.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

USDCAD Should Give us a Nice Signal Soon

Sellers on the USDCAD had a great chance to start a new strong downswing. Unfortunately for those that were expecting that, they failed to break the long-term up trendline and most probably, now they will have to pay the price for that.

Long-term sentiment here is negative. It was created in the first half of the 2016, when the price fell sharply over 2200 pips. After that, we got a year long recovery, which technically in the short-term can be called ‘channel up’ (bullish) and in the longer-term ‘flag’ (bearish). The difference between them focuses on the lower line of this formation. If we would see a bearish breakout that would mean flag. If we would see a bounce, that would mean a channel up. So what price action trader has to do is to wait. Wait for the price action to show us the direction. Yesterday, the price created the small pennant (green) above the support. In theory that indicates a willingness for a breakout but we can see that this is not happening. As long as we stay below the 38,2% Fibonacci it is still to early to claim the successful defence and a bullish victory. The possibility of a breakout is still high.

USDCAD Daily Chart
USDCAD Daily Chart

How to trade it? Best way in my opinion is to wait for the confirmation. Price breaking the lower red line will be a negative signal. Price breaking the 38,2% Fibonacci should be perceived as a positive one. That should be a good trading setup and all we need now is to wait and let the price choose the side.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

USD/CAD Broke below Channel Support

USDCAD broke below the bottom trend line at 1.3435 of the price channel on its daily chart, suggesting that the uptrend started from the January 31 low of 1.2968 had completed at the May 5 high of 1.3793 already.

On the Downside

The USDCAD pair is expected to find its first support at the bottom trend line from the May 2016 low of 1.2460 to the January 31 low of 1.2968 of the price channel on its weekly chart, now at around 1.3200, a clear break below the channel support will take price to the next support level at 1.2968, below this level will confirm that the whole uptrend from 1.2460 had completed at 1.3793 already, this could trigger another long term bearish movement towards 1.1500.

usdcad2

On the Upside

As long as the price is in the bullish price channel on the weekly chart, the USDCAD pair remains in bullish structure. As long as the channel support holds, the fall from 1.3793 could possibly be correction of the uptrend from 1.2460 and one more rise towards 1.4000 is still possible after the correction. There is a key resistance located at 1.3550 on the daily chart, a break through this level could signal resumption of the uptrend.

Technical Levels

Support levels: 1.3223 (April 13 low), 1.3200 (the bottom trend line of the price channel on weekly chart), 1.2968 (January 31 low), 1.2460 (May 2016 low).

Resistance levels: 1.3550 (the key resistance on daily chart), 1.3793 (May 5 high).

This article is written by Franco Shao, a senior analyst at ForexCycle.

Important CAD Pairs’ Technical Overview: 31.05.2017

USD/CAD

With the three-week old descending trend-line, coupled with 50-day SMA, restricting the USDCAD’s near-term advances around 1.3495 – 1.3500, the pair becomes more likely to re-test four-month long upward slanting TL, near 1.3390, if Canadian GDP matches 0.3% forecast. Given the pair drops below 1.3390 on a daily closing basis, the 1.3350 and the 1.3330 may offer intermediate halts during its plunge towards 200-day SMA level of 1.3310. On the contrary, disappointing growth-figure and weak Crude prices might propel the pair to surpass 1.3500, which in-turn could open the door for 1.3570, the 1.3600 and the 1.3640 consecutive resistances to appear on the chart. Moreover, Bulls dominance after 1.3640 can help the buyers to aim for 1.3730 and the 1.3800 round-figure.

EUR/CAD

eurcad

Even after taking a U-turn from a week-long descending trend-line resistance, the EURCAD may bounce-off from 1.5015-10 horizontal-line and can again challenge the 1.5085 TL on weaker Canadian details. Should the pair clears 1.5085 mark, it becomes capable enough to claim 1.5130 and the 1.5160 resistances while its following advances may have to conquer 1.5200 round-figure in order to meet 1.5250 & 1.5280 numbers to north. In case if the 1.5015-10 support-zone fail to play its role, the 1.4980 and the 1.4965 can entertain short-term sellers prior to pleasing them with 61.8% FE level of 1.4950. During the pair’s additional downturn below 1.4950, chances of witnessing 1.4900 and the 1.4860 can’t be denied.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

CADJPY’s defeat from 82.60 seems presently dragging it to 82.15-20 horizontal-line, breaking which the pair can meet 82.00 and then to 81.75 support-levels. Given the sustained trading below 81.75, the 81.30 and the 81.00 are likely buffers that can further direct the moves to month-low around 80.60. Meanwhile, a clear break of 82.60 enables the pair to flash 82.85 and the 83.00 resistances, clearing which 83.50 seems crucial to observe, which if broken could escalate the north-run towards 61.8% FE level near to 84.00.

AUD/CAD

audcad

While a fortnight old descending trend-line seems aptly restricting AUDCAD’s up-moves, the pair is expected to meet a bit longer downward slanting TL, around 0.9995. If the pair refrains from respecting 0.9995, the 0.9950, the 61.8% FE level of 0.9970 and the April low around 0.9920 could be availed as rest-points. Alternatively, break of the 1.0050 TL confirms short-term bullish formation and can propel the quote to 1.0080 and then to 1.0120. In the course of pair’s northwards trajectory beyond 1.0120, the 1.0160 and the 1.0200 are the resistances that could gain attention.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 04.05.2017

USD/JPY

Although USDJPY’s recovery from 108.30-35 support-zone presently helps the pair to meet seven-week high, the 113.20-30 resistance-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA & upper-line of near-term descending trend-channel, seems a tough nut to crack as the RSI is also near the overbought levels. As a result, pair’s pullback to 112.30 and then to the 50-day SMA level of 111.70 becomes more likely before the 110.50 and the 110.00 could reappear on the chart. Should prices drop below 110.00, the 109.20 & the 108.35-30 again grabs attention, breaking which channel support-line at 107.80 might give rise to chances favoring pair’s U-turn. Alternatively, if the quote manages to close beyond 113.30, it can aim for 114.00 and the 114.40 nearby resistances while the 115.00 and the 115.55-60 could please Bulls during its run-up beyond 114.40.

AUD/JPY

audjpy

With the AUDJPY’s inability to drop below fortnight old ascending trend-channel, it seems wise to expect the pair’s pullback towards 84.00, 84.20 and the 84.55 consecutive nearby resistances. If price-recovery gets stretched beyond 84.55, the 84.90 and the channel’s upper-line, at 85.35-40, may trigger its U-turn, failing to which can help buyers to target 85.80 & the 86.20 upside numbers. Given the pair’s favor to sellers, with a dip below 83.30, the 82.90 & 82.40 should be observed closely, breaking which 81.80 and April lows around 81.50 can offer intermediate halt during the pair’s southward trajectory to 61.8% FE level of 80.80.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

Considering the CADJPY’s momentum during last fortnight, the pair seems portraying a short-term “Rising-Wedge” Bearish formation. However, present up-move could end-up flashing 82.50-55 on the chart before the pattern resistance, near 82.75-80, tries to limit its following advances. If prices fail to respect 82.80, chances of witnessing a rally to 83.00 and then 83.30 can’t be denied, which if broken may give rise to 83.70 and the 84.20 north-side numbers. On the downside, 82.00 and the formation support of 81.65 are likely important rests that should be watched, breaking which the bearish pattern gets confirmed and can fetch the quote to 81.20. Should Bears dominate momentum after 81.20 break, 80.55 and the 61.8% FE level of 80.10, closely followed by 80.00 psychological magent, should come into the sellers’ radar.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

Even after breaking a two-month old descending trend-line resistance, the NZDJPY currently witnesses a pullback towards resistance-turned-support around 77.10; though, the pair is expected to bounce-off the same, if not, then 76.75 and the 76.30 can again be witnessed. Given the pair’s inability to stop its downside below 76.30, the 76.00 and the April low around 75.60 may become following supports to watch. Meanwhile, 77.80 and the 78.00 can act as immediate resistances during the pair’s U-turn, breaking which 78.40 and the 78.80-85 horizontal-line seem crucial. In case if buyers propel prices beyond 78.85, 79.60 and the 80.00 can be their favorite numbers.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical update: 22.03.2017

USD/JPY

With the present run for risk-safety providing noticeable strength to safe-havens, USDJPY dropped below 111.30-50 horizontal-region and a closing break beneath the same could flash brighter chances of its extended south-run towards 110.70 & 110.20. Given the pair keep trading down after conquering 110.20 support, the 109.40 & 108.60 might offer intermediate halts prior to dragging it towards 200-day SMA figure around 108.00. In case if the 111.30-50 area again play its role in triggering the pair’s U-turn, 111.85, 112.30 & 112.50 are likely nearby resistances to watch. However, the quote’s additional up-move beyond 112.50 might find it hard to surpass 100-day SMA figure of 113.30, which if cleared enables it to aim for 114.00 and 114.50 numbers to north.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Even if the JPY strength dragged EURJPY to test 120.00 support-confluence, oversold RSI on H4 and the pair’s repeated failures to break near-term important level indicates its pullback towards 120.30 & 120.50 immediate resistances. During the quote’s extended up-move above 120.50, the 120.70 and 121.20 are likely following resistances that should gain traders’ attention before the channel’s upper-line figure of 121.40 comes into lime-light. If at all price recovery clears 121.40, it becomes wise to expect 122.00 to appear on the chart. On the contrary, break of 120.00 – 119.90 can act as a trigger for the pair’s additional south-run to 119.50 & 119.00. However, 118.65 and 118.20 may offer strong supports after the pair plunges below 119.00.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

Alike previous two pairs, GBPJPY also trades at short-term important support-zone of 138.45-55 and signals pullback to 139.00. In case of the pair’s extended recovery beyond 139.00, the 139.60 and the 140.00 can entertain short-term buyers before offering them 140.55-60 resistance-area, which is expected to limit the pair’s following up-moves. Should Bulls dominate prices and clears 140.60, the 141.00, 141.20 & 141.80 might come forward. Meanwhile, pair’s break of 138.45 can fetch it to 137.80 and the 137.00 ahead of reigniting possibilities to witness January lows, around 136.40. Given the quote fails to respect 136.40, sellers can target 135.30 support-mark.

AUD/JPY

audjpy

Although break of four-month old ascending trend-line pushed AUDJPY to re-test early January lows, 100-day SMA, at 85.10, restricts the pair’s present downturn and might support it to reclaim 85.90 support-turned-resistance-line. While pair’s successful closing above 85.90 negate its latest breakdown, 50-day SMA figure of 86.40 and the 86.70 can confine its following advances ahead of 87.30, including descending trend-line mark, gains importance. Alternatively, 100-day SMA’s inability to confront bears could further drag the quote to 84.50 and the 83.75 support-levels. If sellers dominate prices after 83.75 break, the 83.20 and 82.60 can come in their radars.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important CAD Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 16.03.2017

USD/CAD

Although FOMC’s disappointment and negative US crude inventory figure dragged USDCAD towards testing a fortnight low, the pair failed to offer a daily closing below 100-day SMA level and is presently witnessing bounce from the same 1.3295 support. The 1.3350 might become immediate resistance for pair traders to watch at the moment, breaking which 1.3380 and 1.3430 should be given consideration before looking at 1.3500 and 1.3540 north-side numbers. However, 1.3585 – 1.3600 horizontal-region can become difficult for the quote to surpass during its up-move beyond 1.3540, which if broken enables it to aim for 61.8% FE level of 1.3670. Alternatively, pair’s daily closing below 1.3295 SMA mark could further extend its latest drop towards 1.3210 and then to 1.3170-65 support-confluence, comprising 200-day SMA & 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – December advances. Given the pair continue declining below 1.3165, the 1.3120 and 1.3060 can act as buffers before reigniting importance of nine-month old ascending TL and 50% Fibo area of 1.3030-25.

EUR/CAD

eurcad

Following its failure to provide a daily break above 1.4375-85 horizontal-line, the EURCAD has been declining towards revisiting 100-day SMA figure of 1.4165; though, 1.4200 may offer nearby support. If the pair manages to sustain its south-run below 1.4165, the 1.4100 and 1.4030 are likely following rests to grab bears attention before targeting sub-1.4000 area. On the upside, 1.4330 and the 200-day SMA figure of 1.4355 can keep restricting the pair’s near-term advances, breaking which 1.4375-85 again comes into play. Should prices close beyond 1.4385 on daily chart, more than a year-long descending trend-line, at 1.4440, becomes crucial, surpassing which could wake the pair Bulls looking for 1.4600 round figure.

AUD/CAD

audcad

Even if the AUDCAD couldn’t extend its up-move beyond early-month high during Wednesday, a near-term ascending trend-line continues favoring its north-run. Currently, the pair seems heading to confront 1.0250 resistance, which can open doors for its rise towards 1.0265 but another upward slanting trend-line, at 1.0320, might limit its following rally. Given the quote surpasses 1.0320, the 100% FE level of 1.0350 and the November 2016 high around 1.0400 should be watched carefully. Meanwhile, 1.0200 and the 1.0170 trend-line support gains high priority if the pair reverses from present levels. If the 1.0170 is broken 1.0120 and the 1.0100 can quickly be flashed on the chart.

CAD/JPY

cadjp

With the 84.80-75 horizontal-line repeatedly restricting the CADJPY’s downside, chances of its up-move towards challenging immediate descending TL resistance of 85.50 are higher. If the pair manages to clear 85.50, the 85.80 & 86.20 can become buyers’ favorite. Moreover, successful break of 86.20 may help Bulls to inflate the prices towards 86.60, 86.75 and the 87.00 consecutive resistances. Given the quote’s U-turn and a break below 84.75, it can quickly drop to 84.60, 84.15 and then to the 84.00 round figure. Should the pair keep trading southwards after breaking 84.00, 61.8% FE level of 83.55 and the 83.15 are likely rests that it could avail.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Overview: 09.03.2017

USD/JPY

Following its repeated failures to surpass seven-week old descending trend-line, at 114.40 now, the USDJPY finally managed to break the same on Thursday, indicating brighter chances of its advances to 115.00 and 115.60-70 nearby resistances. With the Friday’s NFP likely to post another set of good number, the pair might extend its up-move beyond 115.70 and the can aim for 116.30 and the 117.00 figures towards north. However, pair’s pullback below 114.40 can negate the importance of recent breakout by fetching it to 113.80 and 113.50 support-marks before reigniting concerns for 113.00 and the 112.55-60 test. Given the pair continue declining below 112.55, the 111.90 & 111.60 are likely buffers that it has to conquer prior to pleasing sellers with 61.8% FE level of 110.65.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

EURJPY’s bounce from 118.40-50 horizontal-support triggered the pair’s rally which currently helps it confront the 50-day SMA figure of 121.20. Should the quote provide daily closing above 121.20, it becomes capable enough to aim for 121.60 & 122.20 while nearly three-month old descending trend-line, at 122.60, might restrict its following up-moves. In case of the pair’s successful break of 122.60, chances of witnessing 123.30 on the chart can’t be denied. Alternatively, pair’s closing below 121.20 can again drag it to 120.30 and the 120.00 nearby supports, breaking which 119.50 & 119.10 may entertain short-term sellers; though, 118.50-40 could limit the pair’s further south-run below 119.10. If at all the pair drops below 118.40, it becomes vulnerable to visit 117.55 and 116.35 support-numbers.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

Even if 138.35-40 horizontal-line triggered the GBPJPY’s U-turn during Wednesday, the pair can’t be termed strong unless breaking 50-day SMA figure of 141.30 with near-term descending trend-line, at 140.60, offering immediate resistance. If the pair provides a daily closing above 141.30, it can quickly rise to 142.80 & 143.50 before aiming the 144.40. Meanwhile, 139.00 seems to be adjacent support for the pair traders to watch, breaking which 138.40-35 again comes into play. Given the pair breaks 138.35, it can drop to 137.50 & 136.80 while 136.30 and 135.80 become important during its following downside below 136.80.

CAD/JPY

cadjpy

For CADJPY traders, 100-day SMA figure of 84.60 becomes an immediate concern and with the comparative weakness of CAD, the pair is more likely to decline towards 84.30 & 84.00 after clearing the SMA support. Though, lower-line of three-month old descending trend-channel, at 83.90, might trigger the pair’s pullback moves, failing to which makes it weaker enough to test 83.20 & 82.80 supports. Alternatively, 85.00 and 85.30 are likely nearby resistances to be observed, surpassing which 85.60 & 86.00 may come back on the chart. During the pair’s additional advances beyond 86.00, 50-day SMA figure of 86.40 and the channel resistance of 87.50 gain lime-light.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Weekly Analysis – EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD, USD/JPY

Previous Week Overview

UK GDP result was 2.0%, underestimated the forecast of 2.2%, and under the previous Year number 2.2%. On the other hand we have seen over expected Canadian inflation number of 2.1% which was much better than the previous year number (1.5%). The number left significant effect on the Canadian dollar by Friday. Moreover, traders short dollar before other currencies after they doubted a next month interest rate hike according to the interpretation of the released FOMC minutes.

It is important to highlight the previous week forecast. EUR/USD as forecasted in our previous analysis, traded in narrow range (1.0620-1.0500). AUD/NZD raised at the opening of the week reached 1.0770, then dropped closing 20 pips lower at 1.0657. Yen pairs moved in a tide range. Finally, we forecast the CAC40 to soar at 4932, it soared to 4953.

Next Week Outlook

Next is the GDP week. We are expecting the USA, Switzerland, and Canada. I am not going to be exaggerating if I will say that markets are going crazy. We can see S&P 500 soaring without corrections, currencies are not compatible with technical indicators. Markets are fundamental justification, Trump tax plan and the elections in Europe are all influence markets price action.

AUD/CAD

The pair is showing good divergence, where we should expect the first target at 23.6 level (1.0015), then 38.2 level at (0.9930).

AUD/CAD Daily Chart
AUD/CAD Daily Chart

EUR/USD

Situation on the EUR/USD did not change as it is waiting for motivation. It is expected to continue to move in the same range between 1.0830-1.0520.

EUR/USD Range
EUR/USD Range

AUD/NZD

I anticipated this pair to drop during the previous week and I have a stronger believe in the upcoming week that it will continue to drop. Previous week chart formed a hummer; in addition to that you find the symmetric stochastic touched the top of the triangle as shown in the chart. I believe that pair is dropping to the 23.6 level at (1.0624) then 38.2 level at (1.0550).

AUD/NZD Chart
AUD/NZD Chart

Yen Pairs

As we mentioned in the previous month, it is still moving in range movements. We can also use this as good hedging opportunities. USD/JPY between (111.00 – 115.40) CAD/JPY (82.00 – 88.80) CHF/JPY (109.90 – 115.00) NZD/JPY(84.14 – 80.42).

CAD/JPY Daily Chart
CAD/JPY Daily Chart

Good Luck