Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Sustained Move Over $1746.90 Will Target $1759.40 – $1767.60

Gold futures are edging higher on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields continued to pullback, dragging down the U.S. Dollar. Meanwhile, investors positioned themselves ahead of the U.S. weekly jobless claims and March retail sales reports that could offer further clarity as to the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

At 08:53 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1747.00, up $10.70 or +0.62%.

U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower on Thursday morning, ahead of the release of weekly jobless claims and monthly retail sales data.

The initial jobless claims report is expected to show another 710,000 claims were filed for the first time during the week-ended April 10. March retail sales are also set to come out at 12:30 GMT and are expected to have jumped 6.1%, versus a 3% decline in February.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1759.40 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The trend will change to down on a trade through $1723.20.

On the downside, the first support is a minor 50% level at $1718.40. This is followed by a major Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

The market is currently testing a short-term 50% level at $1746.90.

The next two resistance levels are another short-term 50% level at $1767.60, followed by a major 50% level at $1788.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1746.90.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1746.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into $1759.40 then $1767.60. Overcoming the latter could trigger an acceleration into the major 50% level at $1788.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1746.90 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the main bottom at $1723.20, followed by a pair of retracement levels at $1718.40 and $1711.90.

The trigger point for the next acceleration to the downside is the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Appeal for Gold Bounces Up Amid Weaker Dollar

The bullion asset recorded impressive gains at the fourth trading session of the week with global investors awaiting further signals on the U.S economy as the greenback traded near its three-week lows, further boosted gold bugs in breaking above $1745 an ounce.

Historically the U.S dollar, normally moves inversely to the yellow metal, giving gold bugs enough gas to take hold of the metal’s market momentarily with appetite for the safe-haven currency diminishing day by day.

Consequently, triggering more upsides for gold prices are recent comments coming from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that major risks include another spike in COVID-19 caseloads and perhaps resistant strains that might prove difficult to cure.

However, U.S economic recovery remains on course thanks to rising consumer optimism, as monetary officials added that the United States is on track for faster growth and better employment readings in the coming months.

Such macros might limit the precious metals, on the bias that investors will shun non-yielding investments thereby putting gold bugs on a herculean mission breaking above $1,800 price level, despite the weakening dollar. partly because investors have pushed in record levels towards the crypto-verse as the flagship crypto and other altcoins stay bullish.

Gold bulls have built a baseline around the $1730 pivot zone, suggesting that the bullion asset might stay within the current range, as the appetite for risk broadens with the greenback’s pullback and plunging Treasury yields.

That being said, the precious metal has lost much of its appeal this year compared to 2020 with price actions deteriorating in favor of gold bears rather than gold bugs, still, deep corrections of gold prices are viewed as buying opportunities.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Update – Testing Retracement Zone; Strengthens Over $63.47, Weakens Under $62.29

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are edging higher on Thursday after hitting their highest level since March 18. The move represented a limited follow-through following yesterday’s move than 5% surge.

Several catalysts are supporting the market at this time including increased demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC, a bigger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles and a weaker U.S. Dollar.

At 08:12 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $62.96, down $0.26 or -0.41%. This is down from a high of $63.55.

The IEA’s monthly report said global oil demand and supply are set to be rebalanced in the second half of the year after the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed demand in 2020. Meanwhile, OPEC expects demand to rise by 70,000 bpd from last month’s forecast and global demand is likely to rise by 5.95 million bpd in 2021.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has shifted to the upside. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $66.15. A move through $57.29 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. The minor trend changes to down on a move through $57.68.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. The WTI crude oil market is currently testing its retracement zone at $62.29 to $63.47.

On the downside, minor support is a pair of 50% levels at $61.72 and $60.42.

The main range is $51.04 to $67.29. Its retracement zone at $59.17 to $57.25 is support. It’s also controlling the near-term direction of the market.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $63.47.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $63.47 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at $63.55 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger the start of an acceleration to the upside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with potential targets a pair of main tops at $66.15 and $67.29.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $63.47 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into a pair of 50% levels at $62.29 and $61.72. Taking out the latter could extend the selling into the minor 50% level at $60.42.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Trades Lower Within A Narrow Trading Range

This high was hit after gold traded to a second low, or double bottom on the 30th and 31st of March. This follows the first low of the double bottom which occurred on March 8 when gold was traded to a low of $1673. The second low in the double bottom came in slightly above the former low at $1676.

Simply put, this shows that gold is still dominated by the bearish faction, with the bullish faction attempting to regain control now that we have had a higher low and a higher high than previous.

Today, gold futures basis the most active June contract gave up much of yesterday’s gains. Currently, June gold is fixed at $1736.50, a net decline of $11.10. Today’s close occurred just above the 21-day exponential moving average which is currently fixed at $1736 per ounce. Although gold has been trading sideways over the last eight trading days it is currently above the series of tops that occurred in mid-March. Our technical studies indicate that the selloff in gold which began at the beginning of January when gold was trading above $1940 concluded at the beginning of March. When the first lows of the double bottom occurred, that being said, momentum to the upside has been slow and tenuous at best but has the real potential to continue higher.

gold April 14

Resistance begins at gold’s 50-day moving average which is currently fixed at $1753.90, with the next level of resistance occurring at which is the 78% Fibonacci retracement. The data set used for this retracement begins at the new record high at $2088 and concludes at $1673, the first low of the double bottom we spoke about above.

Chairman Jerome Powell spoke virtually today at the economic club of Washington DC. He addressed the concern that many economists have about the ever-growing national debt that has been created from fiscal stimulus as well as the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. In response to these concerns Chairman Powell said that “The U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path, meaning simply that the debt is growing meaningfully faster than the economy. The current level of debt is very sustainable. And there’s no question of our ability to service and issue that debt for the foreseeable future.”

Although he said that there is no question that the Federal Reserve and U.S. government could service and issue that debt for the foreseeable future the fact of the matter is that current estimates put our expenditures in 2021 at 1.25% of GDP. That being said, it will be hard to fathom exactly what steps will be necessary to service the current level of debt. Also, any major change in interest rates would make that debt even more difficult to service. Many such analysts, including myself, continue to believe that we have not even begun to deal with the economic fallout that will follow our mounting debt. While all are in agreement that the current U.S. budget is on an unsustainable path, real solutions are needed, and no viable solutions have been presented.

For more information on our service, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Whipsaw and Fall as Demand Drops

Natural Gas prices moved lower on Wednesday, whipsawing and closing near the session lows.  This comes ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 50 Bcf build-in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to be colder than normal throughout most of the midwest for the next 6-10 days. There is snow expected in the mountains which should increase heating demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas prices closed on the session lows after making a higher high which is a sign of rejection. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2,56. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.73. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Demand Falls

Demand for U.S. natural gas fell in all sectors except for deliveries to LNG facilities. According to the EIA total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 2.0% compared with the previous report week. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 4.0% week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased slightly by 0.6% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 1.2% as a result of mild temperatures.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Stall at 50 Day EMA

Silver markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Wednesday, as the 50 day EMA has offered a significant amount of resistance. That being said, the market is likely to continue the overall consolidation that we have seen over the last couple of days. If you remember, I recently stated that if we could close above the 50 day EMA on a daily chart, that might be something worth buying, but at this point time we simply do not have the momentum to make that happen. I think that we continue to chop back and forth in this area until we find some type of reason to go higher or lower, and it is probably also worth noting that we are sitting between the 50 and the 200 day EMA indicators.

SILVER Video 15.04.21

The US dollar of course will have a significant effect on silver as well, so having said that I think what you are looking at is a scenario that is going to be choppy and noisy to say the least. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to find its footing, and that takes time. However, if we were to break down below the $24 level, that could open up fresh selling. At that point, I would anticipate that the market may have to go to the $22 level underneath as it is the next major support level. With that being the case, I still would not get overly bearish, at least not until we break down below the $22 level. If that level gets slammed underneath, then silver will sell off quite drastically.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Breaking Out

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has found itself to be very strong during the trading session on Wednesday as the inventory number showed that there was a significant drop in inventory. That of course is bullish for the commodity and the idea of the “reopening trade.” With that being the case, I think this is a market that will continue to try to grind higher, perhaps reaching towards the $65 level above. At that point, we have seen a lot of selling so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Ultimately, the $60 level should now offer significant support in this market.

Crude Oil Video 15.04.21

Brent

Brent markets have also rallied during the trading session, breaking above the $66 level. There is a significant amount of demand out there for crude it appears, and that should continue to lift this market. Currently, it looks as if Brent is going to try to go looking towards the $67.50 level, an area that had seen a lot of selling in the past. To the downside, I believe that the 50 day EMA will offer a bit of a short-term floor, and traders will continue to pay attention to it. If that happens, I think what we will see this point in time is a bit of a bounce.

It appears that the demand for crude oil is picking up, and it does not hurt the both the IEA and OPEC both revise their demand forecasts higher for the rest the year, and therefore demand should continue to be a major driver of crude oil going forward.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Stalls at 50 Day EMA

Natural gas markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday to reach above the 50 day EMA but found plenty of sellers just north of it. That being said, the market looks as if it is ready to continue to chop sideways, perhaps before breaking down further. After all, natural gas will be in low demand season very shortly, as temperatures in the northern hemisphere rise. While that is not the only thing going on, it is by far the most important thing going on.

NATGAS Video 15.04.21

Natural gas markets of course have been very choppy as of late but if we were to turn around a break down below the 200 day EMA, that could convince me to start selling again, and perhaps aiming for lower level such as the $2.25 level, possibly even down to the $2.00 level. This time of year, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to buy natural gas, because quite frankly the demand will not come anywhere near the massive oversupply that we see on a regular basis.

With that being the case, I think what we are looking at is the possibility of a significant break down going forward, but this is a seasonal trade, and a lot of traders will have already known that. With that being the case, I think it is only a matter of time before one has to look at the possibility of fading rallies going forward, as it has certainly worked recently. Natural gas continues to be abundant, and therefore not necessarily something that demand is not taken care of.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Pull Back

Gold markets have pulled back a bit during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise in general. With that being the case, it looks as if the $1750 level is going to continue to be an area of interest, and it is worth noting that the 50 day EMA sits just above there, offering psychological and perhaps even technical resistance. That being said, I do not necessarily think that we need to pile in on shorting gold, but it is most certainly sitting there with its back against the wall.

Gold Price Predictions Video 15.04.21

If we did break above the 50 day EMA, and close above there on a daily chart, then I might consider taking a short-term trade to the upside, as it could open up gold towards the 200 day EMA which currently sits just below the $1800 level. Breaking above there then kicks off a longer-term uptrend. With this being the case, the market then should continue to go looking towards the $1950 level, where we had seen a major sell off.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below that double bottom near $1675, the market then probably drops another $175 rather quickly, as the $1500 level is the next major support level that I see on the chart. The market of course is going to be very noisy, but at the end of the day I think what we are looking at is a downtrend that is being very stubborn about giving up, but we also have significant support underneath. In other words, it is going to be very choppy going forward, but that is typical of gold.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Cooler Forecasts, Capped Ahead of EIA Report

Natural gas futures are slightly higher late in the session on Wednesday, but well off their intraday high. The market is holding support, but the early rally fell short of the last main top at $2.688. A trade through this level will change the main trend to up.

The market continues to be underpinned by weather forecasts calling for cooler temperatures and high liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes, but gains are likely being capped due to general uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report.

At 16:36 GMT, June natural gas futures are trading $2.630, up $0.011 or +0.42%.

Bespoke Weather Services Outlook

Colder trends over the previous 24-hours from both the American and European models added 10-12 gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) to the forecast over the next two weeks, Bespoke Weather Services said early Wednesday and Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reported.

The colder changes resulted from models showing “more chill in the Midwest and East over the next couple weeks,” the firm said. “…It remains difficult for weather to move the needle much at this time of year, but double-digit GWDD changes in a 24-hour period are noteworthy…We continue to look for a warming trend around the end of the month into early May, though nothing yet that leads us to believe we see a big early-season spike” in cooling degree days.

Maxar Weather Desk Outlook

Maxar’s Weather Desk made cooler changes to its updated forecast Wednesday for the six to 10 day period, starting Monday and continuing through April 23. The most notable shifts occurred in the Rockies and Midwest, according to the forecaster.

“High pressure, which has Canada origins, will carry a round of much below normal temperatures in these regions from early to mid-period,’ Maxar said. “Below normal temperatures are common in the Mid-Continent, with the exceptions being Texas late in the period. Texas moderates closer to normal on days nine and 10 along and in advance of low pressure.”

Further out in the 11-15 day time frame, from April 24-28, Maxar said its forecast “remains of lower than usual confidence for the lead time, with uncertainty pertaining to west Pacific Tropical Storm Surigae.”

Maxar’s latest forecast for the 11-15 period as of early Wednesday showed above normal temperatures over the Southwest and normal temperatures for the East Coast.

Daily Forecast

The price action suggests the futures market has already priced in the shift toward cooler temperatures into the latter half of the month. Therefore, we’re not looking for too much more upside pressure unless the cold extends into late April and early May.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Prices Surge as Crude Inventories Plunge Amid Jump in Refining Activity

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading higher on Wednesday following the release of a government report that showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown in crude supplies. The market was supported earlier in the session as OPEC upwardly revised its demand forecasts and better-than-expected news from the American Petroleum Institute (API) late Tuesday.

At 16:00 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $62.98, up $2.74 or +4.55% and June Brent crude oil is at $66.36, up $2.69 or +4.22%.

US Energy Information Administration Weekly Inventories Report

U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped more than expected as refiners increased activity heading into the summer driving season, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels in the week to April 9 to 492.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9 million-barrel drop.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose 309,000 barrels in the week to 234.9 million barrels, less than analysts’ expectations for a 786,000-barrel rise.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.1 million barrels versus forecasts for a 971,000-barrel rise, the EIA data showed.

Refinery utilization rates rose by 1 percentage point to 85% of overall capacity. That is the highest since March of last year, just before the coronavirus pandemic caused refiners to severely restrict processing activities as demand dove.

Net U.S. crude imports rose last week by 443,000 barrels per day. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 346,000 barrels in the last week, the EIA said.

Demand Predictions Move to Forefront

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted global oil demand and supply were set to rebalance in the second half of the year and that producers may then need to pump an additional 2 million barrels per day (bpd) to meet the expected demand.

Similarly, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday raised its global demand forecast by 70,000 bpd from last month’s forecast and now expects global demand to rise by 5.95 million bpd in 2021.

Daily Forecast

The strong demand forecasts are likely to overcome the gradual increases in output by OPEC and its allies. So prices are likely to remain underpinned over the near-term.

Additionally, a weaker U.S. Dollar should continue to be supportive for prices since it tends to increase foreign demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Does Gold Want to Move Lower?

The yellow metal has climbed, but only with lacklustre energy. If the USD Index is not rising, then gold should really be shooting up and breaking new monthly highs, but it isn’t. Readers have been asking what’s happening and some have been concerned with gold’s apparent strength. So, let’s break it down.

History tends to rhyme and what happened before, will – to some degree – happen again. Gold is not immune to this concept, and the current implications are bearish.

Let’s jump right into the charts for details.

Graphical user interface, chartDescription automatically generated

Gold topped right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal, just like it did in mid-March and in early January (please note the points that are marked on the above chart for confirmation – they are described in red). That happened on Thursday (Apr. 8), and since that time gold has continued to move lower.

Gold invalidated the breakout above its mid-March highs, proving that what we saw was nothing more than just an ABC (zigzag) correction within a bigger downswing. The moves that follow such corrections are likely to be similar to the moves that precede it. In this case, the move that preceded the correction was the 2021 decline of over $150. This means that another $150+ decline could have just begun.

It might appear bullish that gold rallied yesterday (Apr. 13), but it only appears this way until one compares this rally with what happened in the USD Index during the same time. Paying attention to today’s (Apr. 14) pre-market price moves further emphasizes the fake nature of yesterday’s rally in gold.

The point is not that gold rallied, but that it hasn’t rallied enough.

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During yesterday’s session, the USD Index moved to new monthly lows and this decline continued in today’s pre-market trading. Consequently, if gold was at least reacting to the USD’s movement “normally”, it should move to new monthly highs. If gold “wanted” to rally, it would have likely exploded to the upside. But what happened instead? Gold moved higher only somewhat yesterday – not to new monthly highs – and in today’s pre-market trading it’s actually slightly lower.

This tells us that gold “wants” to move lower now.

The USD Index moved lower, and it can move even lower on a very short-term basis, perhaps to the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2021 rally, and the previous lows. And what would be the likely effect on gold? Based on what we saw yesterday, and what we see so far today, it seems that gold will likely ignore this decline in the USD Index, while waiting for the latter to finally show strength – so that it (gold) could decline.

After all, gold has already topped right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal point . Consequently, it’s no wonder that it now continues to trade sideways, waiting for a trigger to move much lower.

Moreover, please note that the recent zigzag makes the situation similar (approximately symmetrical) to what we saw about a year ago – between April and early June. Once gold breaks to new yearly lows, one could view this as a breakdown below the neckline of a major head and shoulders pattern where the April 2020 – June 2020 and the recent consolidations are the shoulders of the pattern. Based on such a pattern, gold would be likely to slide profoundly, probably well below $1,500. And the relative performance of gold vs. the USD Index tells us that such a short-term breakdown (to new yearly lows) is a likely outcome in the following weeks.

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Gold stocks also failed to rally to new monthly highs, and they seem to be forming a relatively broad topping pattern, just as they did in mid-March and at the beginning of the year.

The sell signal from the Stochastic indicator as well as the fact that miners failed to invalidate the breakdown below their broad head-and-shoulders pattern points to a bearish outlook for the following weeks (and perhaps months).

All in all, the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish and the recent rally didn’t change anything.

Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Is Losing Ground As Treasury Yields Rebound

Silver Video 14.04.21.

Silver Pulls Back After Yesterday’s Upside Move

Silver faced resistance near $25.55 and pulled back while the U.S. dollar remained under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle below the support at the 50 EMA at 91.80 and is trying to develop additional downside momentum. In case this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next support at 91.50 which will be bullish for silver and gold price today. Weak dollar is bullish for precious metals as it makes them cheaper for buyers who have other currencies.

Gold pulled back towards the nearest support level at the 20 EMA at $1735. This level has been tested several times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength. In case gold declines below the 20 EMA, it will head towards $1720 which will be bearish for silver.

It should be noted that Treasury yields are rebounding after yesterday’s downside move, which is a bearish catalyst for precious metals.

Meanwhile, gold/silver ratio is testing the support at the 50 EMA at 68.60. If gold/silver ratio settles below the 50 EMA, it will gain downside momentum which will be bullish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver april 14 2021

Silver did not manage to settle above the resistance at $25.55 and declined towards the nearest support level at the 20 EMA at $25.30. The next support level is located at $25.20, so silver will likely get material support in the $25.20 – $25.30 area.

If silver settles below the support at $25.20, it will head towards the next support level at $25.00. A successful test of this support level will open the way to the test of the next support at $24.70.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for silver is located at $25.55. If silver gets above this level, it will get to the test of the 50 EMA at $25.65. A move above the 50 EMA will push silver towards the resistance at $25.85. If silver manages to settle above this level, it will move towards the $26.25 – $26.30 resistance area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Use Yields as Your Trading Guide, Not Inflation Expectations

Gold futures are inching lower on Wednesday shortly after the regular session opening after an attempt to continue yesterday’s strong rebound rally fizzled due to the lack of fresh buyers. On Tuesday, gold prices rose after short-sellers were caught on the wrong side of the market following the release of the U.S. consumer inflation report.

Although the report indicated that inflation grew more than expected, the reaction by Treasury bond traders surprised the market, suggesting the report had already been baked into the market.

In my opinion, gold rose, not because of higher inflation, after all, investors also had high expectations for inflation, but because Treasury yields fell, dragging down the U.S. Dollar. And we all know that gold is a dollar-denominated asset and tends to rally when the gold market weakens.

Today, yields are moving higher and the U.S. Dollar is flat. These two factors are weighing on gold prices.

At 12:56 GMT, June Comex gold is trading $1745.40, down $2.20 or -0.13%.

Treasury Yields Recovering

U.S. Treasury yields are up on Wednesday, following a slightly higher-than-expected inflation reading the previous session. The move suggests that Tuesday’s drop in yields may have been a false reaction, or a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” move. If so then, gold traders may have been caught in a “bull trap”.

In recapping Tuesday’s main event, the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index, a core measure of inflation, rose 0.6% in March on the previous month. However, consumer prices jumped 2.6% on the same period last year, the highest year-on-year gain since August 2018 and much higher than the 1.7% growth reported in February.

Daily Forecast

Later today, volume and volatility could pick up as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to discuss the economic recovery from the pandemic at 16:00 GMT at The Economic Club of Washington.

Fed Chair Richard Clarida is also slated to talk about the central bank’s new framework and outcome-based forward guidance at 19:45 GMT at the Shadow Open Market Committee meeting.

Gold may have risen following the release of the CPI data, but it was not because of concerns over inflation. Expectations of higher inflation have been driving yields higher for months and gold prices have been falling.

So trade the yields, don’t trade the reports.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Set To Open Higher As Big Banks Report Strong Earnings Results

Treasury Yields Stay Close To Recent Lows

S&P 500 futures are gaining some ground in premarket trading as Treasury yields remain close to recent lows. Yesterday, U.S. inflation reports indicated that inflation was rising a bit faster than analysts expected.

However, this increase is not sufficient enough to trigger any response from the Fed so Treasury yields declined after the release of inflation reports. Today, Treasury yields remain close to yesterday’s levels which is bullish for tech stocks which look ready to continue their upside move.

Big Banks Report Earnings

JPMorgan has recently released its quarterly results. The company reported revenue of $32.3 billion and earnings of $4.50 per share, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo reports also exceeded analyst estimates.

Financial stocks had a strong start of the year as yields moved higher, and it looks that investors have made a right move by betting on the financial segment as results look strong.

Interestingly, shares of Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are gaining some ground in premarket trading while JPMoran stock is down by about 0.5%, but the situation may change quickly when the regular trading session begins.

Oil Moves Higher As Iran Tensions Increase

WTI oil is currently trying to settle above the $61 level as the fate of renewed nuclear talks with Iran is under question. Recently, participants of the 2015 nuclear deal made an attempt to put Iran and U.S. back to the negotiation table, but the recent attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility increased tensions.

In response to the attack, Iran stated that it would enrich uranium up to 60% purity. It is not clear whether Iran has the technical capability to do so in the near term, but the move clearly raises stakes in the complicated game between U.S., Iran and other participants of the 2015 nuclear deal.

It should be noted that the recent API Crude Oil Stock Change report indicated that crude inventories decreased by 3.6 million barrels and provided additional support to the oil market. If today’s EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports confirms API numbers, oil may gain additional upside momentum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Australian Dollar On The Rise

Gold traders are fighting to keep the bullish dream alive and they’re trying to create the right shoulder of the Inverse head and shoulders pattern. A breakout of the neckline can possibly bring serious bullish sentiment.

Silver bounced from a crucial support on the 24.8 USD/oz.

Brent oil broke the mid-term down trendline and is aiming higher.

The Dow Jones is in the third wedge pattern in a row. The previous two ended in an upswing.

The EURUSD climbed back above the 23.6% Fibonacci.

The GBPUSD wasted a great chance for an upswing and failed to break the neckline of the inversed head and shoulders pattern.

The AUDUSD on the other hand, is very close to activating the buy signal from its own inversed head and shoulders formation.

The USDCAD is locked in a tight rectangle below major down trendlines.

The GBPAUD is in a sweet long-term sell signal, after the price created a head and shoulders pattern at the end of the wedge. A breakout of the lower line of the wedge opens a way towards new mid-term lows.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Wednesday, Apr. 14 – Gold’s Consolidation Despite Rallying Stocks, Cryptos

The gold futures contract gained 0.86% on Tuesday, as it fluctuated within a short-term consolidation despite rallying stock market, cryptocurrencies. The market has bounced from the support level marked by March 8 local low of $1,763.30. In early March yellow metal’s price was the lowest since last year’s June. Today gold is trading along yesterday’s daily close, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Gold is 0.2% lower this morning, as it is trading within a relatively small daily range. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.04% higher, platinum is 1.9% higher and palladium is 0.2% lower today. So precious metals are mixed this morning.

Yesterday’s CPI release has been slightly higher than expected at +0.6%. Today the markets will be waiting for the Fed Chair Powell speech at 12:00 p.m.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Wednesday, April 14

  • 10:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 12:00 p.m. U.S. – Fed Chair Powell Speech
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – Beige Book
  • 2:30 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 3:45 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Clarida Speech
  • 4:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bostic Speech
  • 9:30 p.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Thursday, April 15

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m , Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Business Inventories m/m, NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 11:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bostic Speech
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Daly Speech
  • 10:00 p.m. China – GDP q/y

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Crude Oil Price Update – Set Up for Short-Term Test of $62.29 – $63.47 Retracement Zone

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher on Wednesday shortly before the regular session opening. The rally is being fueled by the news that OPEC raised its outlook for oil demand and an industry report that showed U.S. inventories declined more than expected. Despite the potentially bullish news, some traders feel gains could be limited by COVID-related demand worries and rising supplies.

At 09:38 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $61.31, up $1.07 or +1.78%.

A report released late Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed crude stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended April 9, compared with estimates for a decline of about 2.9 million barrels from analysts polled by Reuters.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $66.15 will change the main trend to up. A move through $57.29 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. The minor trend changes to up on a move through $61.75. This will shift momentum to the upside. Taking out the next minor top at $62.22 will reaffirm the minor trend.

On the downside, the nearest support is a 50% level at $59.75, followed by the main retracement zone at $59.17 to $57.25. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The first short-term range is $66.15 to $57.29. Its 50% level comes in at $61.72.

The second short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. Its retracement zone at $62.29 to $63.47 is the primary upside target. Since the trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this area. They will be trying to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early upside momentum suggests the market is headed into the 50% level at $61.72. The direction the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to this level.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $61.72 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend over the minor tops at $61.75 and $62.22 and the 50% level at $62.29. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $63.47.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $61.72 will indicate the buying is lightening up and the selling may be getting stronger. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into a pair of 50% levels at $59.75 and $59.17.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Bullish Tone Over $1746.90 with $1759.40, $1767.60 Next Targets

Gold futures are trading flat early Wednesday after bouncing off minor support the previous session following a report that showed a sharp rise in U.S. inflation data. The news didn’t surprise investors who had been anticipating a large number.

This encouraged investors to buy government bonds, driving down Treasury yields and consequently demand for the U.S. Dollar. As the greenback weakened, foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold rose.

At 08:32 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1746.80, down $0.80 or -0.05%.

U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in more than 8-1/2 years in March, kicking off what most economists expect will be a brief period of higher inflation.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1759.40 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A new secondary higher bottom was formed at $1723.20. A move through this level will change the main trend to down.

The first short-term range is $1677.30 to $1759.40. Its 50% level at $1718.40 is support.

The second support is the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

Another short-term range is $1817.60 to $1676.20. Gold is currently straddling its 50% level at $1746.90.

The main range is $1858.90 to $1676.20. Its 50% level at $1767.60 is another potential upside target.

The major resistance is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold market on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1746.90.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1746.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the main top at $1759.40, followed by $1767.60. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $1788.50 the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1746.90 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the main bottom at $1723.20, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1718.40 and the major Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

The Fib level at $1711.90 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with $1677.30 the next major target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Prices Surge As U.S Inflation Heats Up – What’s Next?

Gold prices surged on Tuesday from their lowest level in more than a week after a sharp rise in U.S inflation boosting the metal’s appeal as an inflation hedge.

The Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in what customers pay for goods and services such as groceries, clothing and gas, climbed 0.6% in March – it’s biggest monthly increase since August 2012. This report follows last week’s PPI data, which showed producer prices rose 4.2% annually, the fastest pace since September 2011.

The U.S government and Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing programs have started to draw criticism and raise concerns about the long-term risks of overspending and overstimulating the economy at such an aggressive pace.

Inflation will remain the hot topic this week with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday.

So far, Jerome Powell has artfully dodged questions relating to the rapid rise in inflation, stating that any price acceleration will be temporary. But policy makers will have to address this problematic issue eventually before it snowballs into something they can no longer control.

Another macro event that has lend support to gold prices this week was news that U.S health officials’ have halted the use of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine, due to blood clotting occurrences in a few recipients.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.