Natural Gas Prices Edge Higher as Cold Weather Sets in

On Monday, natural gas prices continued to rise, edging slightly higher. The activity was very light and only in the electronic market due to the observance of the Martin Luther King holiday. According to a recent National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration report, much colder than normal weather is expected to cover most of the Mid-West and North East, and warmer than average weather will cover most of the West Coast for the next 8-14 days.

Technical Analysis

On Monday, natural gas prices rallied, 0.6%. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 4.13. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 4.3. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average which means that a short-term up trend is now in place. Short-term momentum is positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

The EIA Believes Prices will Remain Near $4

The Energy Information Administration reported in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook that the natural gas spot price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will average $3.79 per million British thermal units in 2022, slightly less than its 2021 average of $3.91. Natural gas prices increased between March and early October 2021, but they declined in the last three months.

Gold Prices Edge Higher on Chinese GDP Beat

Gold prices edged slightly higher on Monday, but there was little activity in the North American trading session due to the observance of the Martin Luther King Holiday. The dollar also moved slightly higher, and the Treasury market was unchanged. The U.S. interest rate markets are now pricing in 4-basis point hikes in 2022, with a 50% chance of a 4th hike. There is also some talk of a 50-basis point hike as early as March.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices moved slightly higher on Monday. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,1812   Resistance is seen near the January highs at 1,831. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index has generated a crossover buy signal. This situation occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Chinese GDP Grows More than Expected

Chinese GDP increased 1.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 and 8.1% year over year. The median forecast was for 1.2% growth quarter over quarter and 6% year oer year. China released a deluge of data, including softer than expected retail sales, a miss on fixed asset investment, and better than expected Industrial production.

Silver Markets Stabilize and 50 Day EMA in Quiet Trading

Silver markets had electronic trading going, but a bulk of the bigger traders were probably on the sidelines as it was a holiday in the United States, being Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday. That being said, the market seems to be hovering around the 50 day EMA as we have seen previously, which is an area that attracts a lot of technical traders. The question now is whether or not the 50 day EMA will hold as support or resistance? It is kind of an open question at this point, so one should probably pay quite a bit of attention to the idea of a bigger move coming.

SILVER Video 18.01.22

If we break down below the lows of the last couple of days, then it is very possible that we could go looking towards the $22 level, an area that of course has been important multiple times as major support. In fact, this area extends all the way down to the $21.50 level, making it more or less a “support zone.” To the upside, if we were to break above the highs of both Thursday and Friday, and basically the $23.50 level, silver could start to take off to the upside and make a bigger move.

Until we make some type of decision, I would stay away from this market, but it certainly looks as if we are about to make that decision relatively soon. With this being the case, I think it is only a matter of time before this market takes off and starts to pick up momentum again. Tuesday should be rather important.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Markets Pull Back a Bit From High Levels

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gapped higher during the open on Monday, but then pulled back a bit to show signs of hesitation and of course exhaustion during the day. That being said it was Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States, so that had a major influence on volume. Regardless, this was a pullback that needs to happen, and therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see a little bit of a continuation of this. Quite frankly, I would love to see this market pullback towards the $80 level so I could buy it based upon value, but it is also possible that we just simply break out above the $85 level, and then simply become more of a “buy-and-hold” type of situation.

Crude Oil Video 18.01.22


Brent markets also pulled back a bit, as we are hanging around the $86 level. All things being equal, we are reaching towards the highs yet again, so I think that short-term pullbacks will offer buying opportunities. The $85 level is an area of obvious interest, but it is also possible that we may see this market break down even further, perhaps down to the $82.50 level. Regardless, this is a market that I think is one that you start to buy on dips more than anything else, and the idea of shorting this market is not even a thought at this point in time, nor will it be anytime soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Markets Quiet During Holiday

Natural gas markets have gapped a little bit higher during the open on Monday, but then pulled back to fill a bit of a gap. All things been equal, the hammer from the Friday session shows signs of support as well, and therefore I think you need to pay close attention to it. This is especially true considering that it bounced from the 200 day EMA. That being said, a lot of traders are paying close attention to the cold weather in the northeastern part of the United States, which of course is going to be a bit of a drain on supply. However, you can also make an argument that it has already been priced in, and therefore it is not a huge issue at this point.

NATGAS Video 18.01.22

It does look like we could get a little bit of a bounce here, but that bounce is something that I am more than willing to sell into, at the first signs of exhaustion. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will eventually break down significantly due to the fact that there has been an oversupply of natural gas for some time, and of course the latest catalyst for gas to get more expensive is temporary at best. With this being the case, rallies are selling opportunities, and I will jump all over this market at the first signs of weakness after a rally. On the other hand, if we break down below the candlestick on Friday, I would be a seller there as well. I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in trying to buy natural gas.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Is Mostly Flat At The Start Of The Week

Silver Remains Stuck Near The $23 Level

Silver is currently trying to settle back above $23.00 while U.S. dollar is gaining some ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is testing the resistance level at 95.20. In case this test is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance at 95.40 which will be bearish for silver and gold price today. Stronger dollar is bearish for precious metals as it makes them more expensive for buyers who have other currencies.

Meanwhile, gold made an attempt to settle below the support at $1815 but failed to develop sufficient downside momentum and remained in the $1815 – $1830 range. In case gold declines below $1815, it will gain additional downside momentum and move towards the next support level which is located near the 50 EMA at $1800.

Gold/silver ratio is currently trying to settle above the 20 EMA at 79.25. A move above the 20 EMA will push gold/silver ratio towards the resistance at 79.50 which will be bearish for silver.

It should be noted that U.S. stock markets are closed today, so ETFs like iShares Silver Trust and SPDR Gold Trust are not trading.

Technical Analysis

silver january 17 2022

Silver is testing the resistance level at the 50 EMA at $23.00. In case silver manages to settle above the 50 EMA, it will move towards the next resistance level which is located at $23.20.

RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. If silver settles above $23.20, it will move towards the next resistance level at $23.50.

On the support side, the nearest support level for silver is located at the 20 EMA near $22.85. If silver moves below the 20 EMA, it will get to the test of the support at $22.75. A move below this level will push silver towards the support level which is located at $22.60.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Markets Find Buyers on Dips

Gold markets initially fell during the trading session on Monday but has found enough support underneath the turn things around and show signs of trying to strengthen. That being said, the market is very likely to continue to be choppy, but if we can break above the $1830 level above, this market could take off to the upside. On the other hand, if we break down below the lows of both the Monday candlestick and the Thursday candlestick, that would represent a break of support, perhaps opening up a move down to the $1800 level.

Gold Price Predictions Video 18.01.22

It will be interesting to see what happens, but if the market makes a move, we have a couple of clear potential targets. It is also possible that we simply chop around in the range of the last couple of days, as the market has been so tight. There is a lot of questions out there right now, so this would not be a huge surprise. After all, gold is highly sensitive to interest rates and the US dollar, both of which are all over the place right now. It is worth noting that gold looks like it wants to go higher, but until we clear that resistance above, it is likely that we continue to see a lot of noise.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think will give us a signal in the next couple of days, and it will be relatively simple to follow it. Keep in mind the gold markets do tend to be volatile, so you need to keep your position size rather small until you get a bit of confirmation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

As Gas Prices Fall, European Spark Spreads Get Closer to Darks

This is not surprising, given how much prices at regional gas hubs increased over the second half of 2021. At the beginning of this year, coal is still much more competitive for power generation than gas, but the gap between the two is no longer as remarkable as it used to be in mid-December.

Amid soaring natural gas contracts, coal products also rose significantly last year, but the latter’s gains had been somewhat modest when compared to the meteoric rate of the former’s price growth. While the ICE Endex TTF front-month surged by about 250pc between July and mid-December 2021, the European API2 coal monthly futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange went up by ‘only’ one-third over the same period.

As a result, the indicative NWE front-month baseload spread for a 40pc coal-fired plant averaged €65/MWh in Q3 and Q4 2021, with that for a 49pc-efficient CCGT being at minus €3.5/MWh. At its peak in mid-December, when gas prices reached a new record high across Europe, the difference between dark and spark spreads exceeded €200/MWh.

Within the past month, the premium of front-month clean dark spreads to clean sparks returned to its early November 2021 levels. This was caused by the drop in gas prices in late December, together with the influx of LNG supply into Europe and well above normal temperatures during the Christmas period, on the one hand, and higher coal prices due to Indonesia’s temporary ban on exports, on the other. In addition to that, EUAs have been trading on average at €81/tCO2 for the past month or so, as compared with €50/tCO2 between July and November 2021.

However, despite the narrowed gap between dark and spark spreads, gas is a long way from pushing out coal from the EU energy mix. With the region´s supply picture remaining tight and gas prices being at multi-year highs, utility companies are in particular need of cheaper alternatives.

The opinions expressed in this blog are mine only and do not reflect the views of my employer


Speculators Rotate Towards Crude Oil and Natgas

A week that saw continued stock market weakness and rising bond, albeit at a much reduced pace after Jerome Powell pledged to do what’s necessary to reduced inflation while at the same time prolonging the economic expansion. The dollar traded weaker ahead of last Wednesday’s, thereby supporting a strong rally in commodities led by energy and industrial metals.

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.


The Bloomberg Commodity Index jumped 2.2% during the reporting week to January 11 with a 6.3% gain in energy and 1.2% in industrial metals offsetting weakness across the agriculture sector which with the exception of coffee and cocoa saw broad losses led by sugar and hogs. Responding to these developments, money managers accumulated fresh longs across the energy sector, not least in crude oil, while cutting back on exposure across all other sectors.

In crude oil, the combined net long in Brent and WTI jumped by the most since November 2020 to reach 538k lots or 538 million barrels, still well below the most recent peak at 737k lots from last June. A US cold blast helped send natural gas up by 14% and the net long up by 30% to 163k lots.

In the other sectors of metals and agriculture, speculators opted to reduce their exposure with the few exceptions being soybeans, cocoa and coffee. Rangebound HG copper as an example saw its net long reduced by 15% to 22.2k lots, primarily due to increased short selling, some of which were probably stopped out during the failed breakout attempt above $4.47 towards the end of last week. Gold and silver both saw net selling , while the platinum short jumped 86%.

In agriculture, speculators increased their long positions in all three soybeans contract, the corn long was cut by 6% while the CBOT wheat short jumped by 40% to an 18-month high. In softs, the sugar long continued to be cut, this time by 61.6k lots to 76.5k lots, and since hitting a cycle peak last August the net long has now been reduced by 72% to a near 18 month low. Cocoa flipped back to a small net long, the coffee long rose 4% while the cotton long was cut by a similar percentage.

Market comments from today’s Market Quick Take:

Crude oil (OILUSFEB22 & OILUKMAR22) trades mixed with Brent crude oil briefly challenging the double-top at $86.75, a seven-year high, before having a rethink as China GDP and retail sales slowed amid ongoing measures to curb the spreading of the omicron variant.

The prompt spreads in WTI and Brent remain elevated at 63 and 74 cents per barrel, thereby signaling rising tightness. Later this week monthly Oil Market Reports from OPEC on Tuesday and IEA on Wednesday will shed some further light on the current situation. Speculators, a little late to the recent rally, boosted bullish oil bets in WTI and Brent bets by the most in 14 months last week.

Copper (COPPERMAR22) slid the most in seven weeks on Friday as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data (see below) together with weakness in China added to concerns that global growth may slowing amid rising inflation and the spreading virus. High Grade’s drop back below $4.50 triggered some stop loss selling from recently established longs before stabilizing overnight after China, the world’s top consumer, cut rates to support its economy. The worry over tight supplies, however, has not gone away and should cushion any short-term weakness.

Gold (XAUUSD) remains resilient despite Friday’s renewed surge in bond yields as the market continues to price in the prospect of rising US interest rates, potentially at a more aggressive pace than previously expected. Support continues to build in the $1800-area while a break above $1830 could see it target $1850 ahead of the November peak at $1877.


In forex, the major flow was selling of JPY, where the net short increased by 25.3k lot or the equivalent of $2.7bn. Additional selling of AUD (-2.1k lots) took the net short to a fresh record short at 91.5k lots. The EUR position flipped back to a net long after speculators bought 7.6k lots while the GBP short was reduced by 26%. Overall, the dollar long against ten IMM currency futures and the Doller Index rose by a small 1% to $23.5 billion.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other

Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other

Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

Daily Gold News: Monday, Jan. 17 – Gold Price Goes Sideways

The gold futures contract lost 0.27% on Friday, Jan. 14, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. Recently gold price was gaining in a reaction to the weakening U.S. dollar, among other factors, and the market got close to the previous highs again. On Jan. 3 gold reached the local high of $1,833 before reversing lower, and on Friday, Jan. 7 it traded as low as $1,781.30. This morning the yellow metal is trading slightly above its last Friday’s closing price, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Gold is 0.1% higher this morning, as it is trading within a short-term consolidation. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.1% higher, platinum is 0.2% lower and palladium is 0.2% higher. So the main precious metals’ prices are virtually flat this morning.

Friday’s Retail Sales release has been much worse than expected at -1.9%. Today we will likely see low volatility market because of a bank holiday in the U.S.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Monday, January 17

  • Tentative, Japan – BOJ Outlook Report, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Policy Rate
  • All Day, U.S. – Bank Holiday
  • All Day, Eurozone – Eurogroup Meetings

Tuesday, January 18

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 4:00 p.m. U.S. – TIC Long-Term Purchases
  • Tentative, Japan – BOJ Press Conference
  • All Day, Eurozone – Eurogroup Meetings

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *


All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


Will Inflation Hit the Markets?

With US inflation at a 40-year high, in this week’s market update XTB’s market analyst Przemysław Kwiecień examines what this could mean for stocks, commodities and forex, the impact this will have on investors, and how the Fed might react. Expect to find answers to questions such as:

  • What does elevated inflation mean for stocks and commodities?
  • Are investors unprepared for monetary tightening?
  • What is the key data and levels for the pound this week?

Don’s miss our latest market update: Watch now!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil is Heading Towards Highs

So, the oil is trading close to its 7-year highs and market players are focused on nothing but positive news. On one hand, the oil price is supported by the fact that investors are absolutely sure of the stable and strong demand for energies. Some OPEC+ members are really behind the previously approved oil extraction plans – this is another reason for buying oil right now. on the other hand, Libya is back to its normal pace of oil production after repairing the pipelines. In addition to that, the rumour has it that China will sell oil from its strategic resources closer to the Lunar New Year. This news is rather negative for the commodity market.

Last Friday’s report from Baker Hughes showed that the Oil Rig Count in the US added 11 units, up to 492. The same happened in Canada, with +43 units.

In the H4 chart, having completed the ascending structure at 83.96 and broken this level, Brent continues trading upwards. Today, the asset may reach 87.55 and then start a new correction towards 80.00. Later, the market may form another ascending structure with the target at 91.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 inside the histogram area, thus indicating a further uptrend in the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 84.12 and breaking it to the upside, Brent continues growing with the short-term target at 87.65. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 84.12 and then resume growing with the target at 91.00. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving upwards to break 50 and may later continue growing to reach 80.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Here’s Why The Current Commodity Supercycle Will Be Much Bigger Than Ever Before

That’s the common view, amongst a long list of Wall Street banks from Goldman Sachs to JPMorgan. Last week, the world’s largest asset manager – Blackrock also joined the list with their prediction that Commodities will be the best performing asset class in 2022.

There are plenty of reasons why the world’s most powerful financial institutions are “extremely bullish” on commodities. These include rapidly surging global inflation, tightening supply vs soaring demand, logistical bottlenecks to ever growing supply chain issues – all combined with a very disruptive economic recovery from the pandemic that shows no signs of fading anytime soon.

And let’s not forget the switch toward a greener world, which is fuelling fierce demand for Commodities such as Aluminium, Copper, Cobalt, Nickel, Lithium and Uranium as economies race to decarbonize the world by 2030.

In fact, the early signs already look promising.

Last week, Aluminium prices hit an all-time record high. Whilst Nickel prices surged to a decade high. Elsewhere, Oil prices skyrocketed above $84 a barrel to hit an eight-year high.

The previous two supercycles took place in the 1970s and the 2000s. In both cases, the commodities sector resembled the identical tell-tale signs, as it’s displaying again right now.

All in all, the evidence is mounting that a new commodity supercycle is underway. It goes without saying, that commodities are definitely one of the hottest and most exciting asset classes to watch in 2022.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

What the Year of the Tiger Will Bring for the Asian Markets – A Conversation with Finalto’s Alex Yap

From a major rebranding exercise to upheavals in the Asian markets throughout the year, it was busy 2021 for Finalto. Who would know better about this than Alex Yap, Head of Institutional Sales for Asia at Finalto? Today, we are in conversation with Alex about how last year treated the leading fintech company and what his expectations are for 2022, the Chinese Year of the Tiger.

How has 2021 treated you and Finalto?

In general, we’ve done pretty well this year, despite the spread of the Delta variant during the first half of 2021. Without the luxury of travelling and meeting clients face-to-face, we’ve had to adapt quickly to new ways to connect with our clients. Our strong customer relationships and Finalto’s branding helped us grow even during this difficult year. I think it has been a good test for all of us, teaching us to respond to changes with agility and innovation. At this point, we’re more equipped than ever to continue on our growth path.

A lot of business in Asia is done face to face, how has this changed during these times?

Yes, Asia is known for its love of in-person conversations, which meant that we used to travel extensively. But now we and our clients have had to adapt to the new normal, relying on online interactions. Even simple Zoom calls have helped us stay in touch with our clients. It has only been thanks to tech innovations that we were able to effortlessly continue our services.

When the pandemic began in 2020, a lot of our clients were not initially comfortable with a completely digital approach. But people are resilient, and they have become much more comfortable over time with the new way of communicating, which is completely online. I can safely say that the pandemic has transformed the industry in Asia.

The Asian markets went through a lot last year, with the raging Delta variant in the first half and the energy crisis in China in the second. What’s your take on the Asian markets in 2021?

Yes, it was an eventful and extremely busy year for us. The Delta variant brought massive volatility back to the financial markets. But after the volatility of 2020, the markets adjusted quickly and settled down much faster in 2021. In fact, there were several months of low volatility last year, unlike in 2020. Even the news of the Omicron variant led to only a couple of weeks of higher volatility, after which the markets seem to have taken this fresh spread of Covid-19 in its stride. On the whole, volatility was lower than in 2020 and did not last as long. The markets adapted quickly.

Again, if you see the downgrade of the Asian markets by the IMF, it was much better than in 2020. They cut their outlook for Asia by about 1% to 6.5% in October. With economies reopening, demand grew but supply constraints continued, with OPEC deciding to continue with its production restrictions. As a result contracts for natural gas for November delivery rose to $6.466/MMBtu on October 5, the highest since December 2008. Natural gas prices in Europe rose fivefold, while in Asia, they were up 1.5 times. WTI rose to $80/bbl by the end of the first week of October, its highest since November 2014, while Brent was at its highest since 2018.

Global energy prices have normalised since then and had little to do with the energy crisis in China. China is aiming at becoming carbon neutral by 2060 and has set a challenging carbon dioxide emissions peak target to be met by 2030. The nation has been investing significantly in renewable energy. Plus, it has immense nuclear power capabilities. However, although it is the world’s third-largest user of nuclear power, this energy source accounts for only 5% of its energy mix as of 2020. Compare this to the 70% in France. So, the energy crisis can be averted by raising nuclear power consumption.

Where does Finalto see itself in the financial markets of the Asia-Pacific region?

Asia is a very diverse market. Not only does the level of sophistication differ from country to country, the needs and preferences also vary significantly. But, Finalto is a very strong brand, with a revolutionary 360 suite or what we like to call a “solution in a box.” It is highly customisable, offering multi-asset capabilities to our clients. Despite our marketing not being too aggressive last year, we were able to garner clients through our flexible pay-as-you-go subscription model, with customised pricing and product delivery.

This is a solution we have tailored specifically to offer powerful features, that our clients in Asia have yet to fully discover. So, for 2022, it is key for us to communicate the advantages we offer. This includes a complete end-to-end platform, with front-end and back-office administration capabilities, robust trading and pricing tools and cutting-edge connectivity. With our pay-as-you-go model, clients can either choose the full suite or select from individual components to enhance their current capabilities.

For instance, ClearVision is a leading tech solution for institutional investors worldwide and is gaining popularity among proprietary trading firms and brokers focused on global growth. Its various components include the ClearPro trading platform for professional traders, the ClearWeb cloud-based trading platform, the ClearMobile mobile trading platform and FIX Connectivity for custom needs.

How are the needs of fintech firms and traders in Asia different from the other regions where you offer your services?

As I mentioned before, this is a very diversified market. The level of tech sophistication in the region ranges from novice to very advanced levels. So, Finalto 360 is the ideal tool to cater to such diverse needs. Fintech is still in its nascent stages in many parts of Asia and the sector is still trying to establish a strong footing.

Then we have the huge cultural and language differences. To serve clients from Singapore as efficiently as those from Thailand or Indonesia, we need to provide localised services. With a pan-Asian team, we understand the way they run their business across these different nations and what they need. We can offer services and support in the language they prefer through Finalto 360. This is where we have an edge in the market.

With Finalto 360, we offer our clients a turnkey trading system based on a set of 5 cutting-edge modules developed by highly experienced industry experts, which offers complete support and scales with the client’s business.

What are your predictions for the Asian financial markets for 2022?

The markets across Asia will see economic recovery through 2022, although the pace will differ across nations. South Asia is expected to grow at the fastest rate in the region, with East Asia coming in a close second. This could be due to the regulatory reset in China, which could impact the 2022 GDP.

The Hang Seng contracted about 17% in 2021, while most key indices in Asia saw positive growth. In fact, it is the only one that has been on a downward spiral through last year, reaching a low of 23,192.63 on December 17. But I won’t be surprised if it bounces back strongly in 2022, so investors should keep a close watch.

The People’s Bank of China is unlikely to revise its interest rate policy anytime soon. On the other hand, it set a significantly weaker-than-expected midpoint for the yuan exchange rate in early December. The central bank indicated that this was in response to the high levels of foreign exchange reserves. This move could lead to greater liquidity in the economy, which will need to find outlets. In which case, we might see more interest in the stock markets from investors, especially true of Hong Kong, which is a key financial centre in the region.

On the other hand, inflation is likely to continue to be a key challenge in Asia in 2022. With the economies in recovery mode, demand could well outstrip supply, which will drive inflation up. And this is against the backdrop of supply chain disruptions.

Central banks, including the US Fed, are unlikely to moderate their policy tightening any time soon, which will also put pressure on assets. Central banks in Asia will, therefore, be keeping their eye on the Fed. Core prices have remained fairly flat so far, but this could change depending on how the interest rates are revised. In fact, if the Fed makes a drastic shift in its stance, we could see a rise in volatility in the financial markets.

Given the current inflation scenario in the US, I believe the FOMC could decide to make 2, 3 or even 4 rate hikes through 2022. We are likely to see some hikes very soon and I won’t be surprised if we see larger than expected rise. So, investors should also keep an eye on the Fed’s decisions, since it would affect markets globally.

Weekly Waves 17 Jan: Ethereum, GBP/USD, and Gold

Weekly Waves 17 Jan: Ethereum, GBP/USD, and Gold

Our analysis indicates a bearish ABC correction on the GBP/USD, a potential 5 waves down on ETH/USD, and a slow wave 4 pattern on XAU/USD.

ETH/USD Downtrend Must Respect Shallow Fibs

ETH chart, 17.01.22

The Ethereum (ETH/USD) crypto currency pair is in a downtrend after breaking below the support trend lines (dotted green):

  1. Price action could be moving down lower in 5 waves (pink). But price action should respect the shallow Fibonacci levels (red box) and resistance trend line (red).
  2. A break above these Fib levels place the bearish analysis on hold. A bearish bounce and continuation lower, however, could confirm the 5 wave pattern in wave A (grey).
  3. The main targets of the bearish swing are the -27.2% and -61.8% Fibonacci targets.
  4. In any case, a larger ABC (grey) pattern seems to be taking place in a wave 4 (yellow) correction.

GBP/USD Strength Expected to Face Opposition

GBP/USD chart, 170122

The GBP/USD is showing a strong bullish impulse, which was able to break above the resistance trend line (red) of the downtrend:

  1. The bulls however are facing a strong resistance zone from the previous top (red box). A bearish bounce is likely to occur here (orange arrows).
  2. A bearish ABC (blue) pattern could emerge at the resistance to create a pullback. But this could simply complete a wave B (pink) within a larger ABC (pink) pattern.
  3. The blue box could indicate an inverted head and shoulders pattern. A deeper bearish retracement would place the bullish ABC on hold or invalidate it. A stronger push up above the resistance (red box) however still will indicate a wave A (pink) most likely.

XAU/USD Bullish Chart Pattern

Gold is moving sideways after a strong impulsive move up:

  1. A bullish break above (green arrow) the resistance (red) trend line could indicate an uptrend continuation. But if the current Elliott Wave analysis is correct, then the previous top should stop the uptrend.
  2. A bearish bounce (orange arrow) could complete the ABC (blue) in wave B (pink) and send price back down to the previous bottom.
  3. A bullish bounce (green arrow) at the previous bottom could complete the ABC (pink) pattern within wave 4 (yellow) and restart the uptrend.
  4. A deeper retracement below the previous bottom places the uptrend on hold or invalidates it.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter


Nat Gas Bulls Need Extreme US Cold to Extend into February

Natural gas futures finished lower on Friday, but held on to its weekly gains. The price action reflected the combination of strong cash markets, solid export demand and a longer-term outlook for warmer temperatures.

On Friday, March natural gas futures settled at $4.081, up $0.076 or +1.90%.

Over the short-run, traders are eyeing the potential for further freeze-offs that could keep output low, however, the new forecasts suggest the current cold front could break up by February. Meanwhile, European demand for U.S. exports is expected to remain high.

Frigid Temperatures Capping Production

Natural Gas Intelligence NGI reported U.S. production remained light early this year relative to late 2021 highs because of freeze-offs in key gas-producing basins. Bloomberg estimated production at 94.5 Bcf on Friday, off about 2.5 Bcf from last year’s peak.

EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin said further production interruptions look with frigid temperatures on the way.

“The possibility of late-month freeze-offs remains a crucial wild card,” he said. “The cooling in the January weather forecast over the past three weeks, particularly for the last third of the month, has led to the coldest outlook since the 2014 Polar Vortex.”

European Energy Crisis Depends

According to reports, limited Russian flows of gas to Europe this winter amid political turmoil deepened an energy crisis on the continent and bolstered demand for American shipments of the super-chilled fuel.

NGI estimates showed the U.S. LNG feed gas volumes topped 13 Bcf on Friday – on par with record levels.

Assuming normal weather this winter, Wood Mackenzie Vice President Massimo Di Odoardo said at current levels of Russian exports, European storage inventories would drop to a record low by the end of March, even with U.S. LNG in the mix there. An exceptionally cold winter in Europe could push inventories “close to zero” by the spring, he said.

Short-Term Outlook

Prices are likely to remain underpinned over the short-run. The harsh weather conditions combined with strong LNG demand and modest production point to the potential for a month’s worth of 200-plus Bcf withdrawals of gas from storage. However, we’re going to need to see lingering cold into February to drive enough short-sellers out of the market and bring in enough new speculative buyers to spike prices higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Week In Review: Dollar Dips, Red Hot CPI, Disappointing Retail Sales

The mood across financial markets turned cautious on Monday as traders pondered the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates sooner than expected. Surging Covid-19 cases across the globe also weighed on sentiment, hitting appetite for riskier assets.

Our trade of the week was gold. We questioned whether the precious metal would be in trouble as rising inflation boosted expectations around for higher interest rates. On Tuesday, king dollar weakened, even after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated during his Senate confirming hearing that the central bank was likely to raise interest rates this year.

Mid-week, the US December inflation report showed prices rising at their fastest rate in almost 40 years! The consumer prices index (CPI) jumped to 7% year-on-year, up from 6.8% in November while matching the median forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. We saw the Dollar Index (DXY) slam into 95.00 following the inflation report. Although markets initially offered a calm reaction to the CPI, equity bulls felt the burn on Thursday as rate hike bets rose.

Gold regained its mojo, deriving strength from a weaker dollar and slight pullback in Treasury yields. After experiencing sharp losses last week, the precious metal concluded this week roughly 1.2% higher.

All eyes were on the US retail sales on Friday which disappointed expectations. Sales fell by 1.9% in December, as worries over the Omicron variant and rising inflation hit spending. With this terrible combination hitting household consumption, this could weigh on economic growth in the final quarter of 2022. Interestingly, the probability of a rate hike in March stands at 91.5% as of writing.

In the FX space, the dollar staged a rebound on Friday but still ended the week lower against all G10 currencies. Oil posted a fourth straight weekly gain amid signs that the market is tightening as global consumption remains resilient in the face of Omicron.

In other news, earnings season kicked off with major banks under the spotlight. JPMorgan Chase, the Number 1 U.S. bank by assets showed profit and revenue that topped estimates. Citigroup beat revenue estimates but showed a 26% plunge in profits while Wells Fargo reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. With earnings season set to kick into higher gear in the week ahead as more companies publish their fourth-quarter results, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts for potential volatility!

By Lukman Otunuga Senior Research Analyst

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Here Comes the Stagflation; (Got Gold?)

Specific to the three-year run from 1973 (and its intolerable lines for gasoline) through 1975, the annual Consumer Price Index came in respectively at 6%, 11%, and 9%, (kinda akin to this past year). The price of Gold settled 1972 at 58; come 1975, it settled at 141: that’s a three-year net increase of +143%. Got Gold?


Then came President Peanut, (with a resurgence of petrol queues), and by 1980 Gold in a hyper-spike traded up to 873, (before unraveling to 300 by 1982 as President Gipper and the Economic Recovery Tax Act stimulatively kicked into gear).

Fast forward to today and we ask what’s next? In this time of investors and sovereigns being disinterestedly impervious to any and all Gold stimuli, who knows? To the hardened analyst, everything that used to work no longer does, as algorithms — bereft of all that is fundamental and even at times technical — are running the show. But common sense — as is its historical wont — shall return along with positive interest rates (savings accounts), acknowledgment of non-supportive earnings (S&P “dip”), and recognition of real value (Gold and Silver).

Indeed, the FinMedia Word of the Week was : “7% inflation for 2021!” they shrieked. “Fastest pace since 1982!” they screeched. “It is far different this time!”, they preached.

Sheesh. ‘Course, statistical selectivity set up the staggering story. Obviously the “7%” came from simply summing 2021’s 12 individual monthly top-line CPI increases. What if, instead, we summed 36 months: that gives us “10.5%”, a total less than the “11.3%” into the summer of 2008. Takes some of the edge off that four-decade drama, doesn’t it? After which what happened? The S&P “dipped” -48.8% over the ensuing six months, (or if measured from October 2007’s high, -57.7%), as the shearing of Lehman et alia came to pass, (following which the price of Gold rose +108% into 2011).

But let’s get to the point of the present, for ’tis the unmentionable that wrecks the whole story:

  • This past October’s CPI pace was +0.9%;
  • It then slowed a pip to November’s pace of +0.8%;
  • And now in turn for December it cooled to +0.5%.

In other words, the pace of CPI inflation growth is actually slowing!

“But you can’t make a trend out of just three months, mmb…”

Watch us, Squire. Linearly trendline those three months and come March 2022’s CPI pace ‘twould actually be DEflationary! But to your point, we are not predicting that. Inflation is all around us.

Still, did you notice that December’s wholesale Producer Price Index (PPI) pace — which logically leads the CPI — was just +0.2%?

Either way, be it inflation — or more likely stagflation — with a doubling of the Federal Reserve’s overnight lending rate in the balance, we recall: “Double double toil and trouble. Fire burn and cauldron bubble.” –[W.S., 1623]. Move Macbeth to modern-day and with the muted real increase in earnings we’ve Acte I of “Has the S&P Crashed Yet?”

“Muted, mmb?”

Clearly so, Squire. The “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is now 47.7x. Its lifetime median is 20.4x, (and the average is 22.1x). To align with that as has always historically happened, if the ever-stubborn “P” refuses to go down, then the lackluster “E” needs to go up: indeed more than double!

Is it happening? No. With Q4 Earnings Season underway, five major Banks reported yesterday (Friday). Their average earnings increase over a year ago? +11%. That’s it. Zip, Zero, Nada. Even as the FinTimes reported on Wednesday that “US companies tipped for strong earnings season…” (Do call their editor and inform them of what “strong” need be, i.e. over well over +100%).

But wait, there’s more (or better stagflatingly-stated, less). We’ll get to Gold’s perpetually sleepy analytics in a sec, but first if perchance you haven’t already looked at the website, here is the Economic Barometer. Not so great for President Ohno:


That rightmost drop is the vastest five-day oscillative plunge in the Econ Baro since March of last year, and moreover (should you be scoring at home) it ties for second worst in the past six years. Amongst the low-lights of the week’s incoming metrics, Retail Sales actually shrank via their second-worst December in the 24-year history of the Baro. “What happened to Christmas?” The month’s Industrial Production shrank as well. “I can’t get the proper equipment!” –[Algernon, “Help!”, ’65].

Then from the Fed came nothing but calls for an urgent end to stimulus, with rate rises in the balance. (Still nursing that variably-priced debt? Get ready). From Chair Powell himself to Fed officials Barkin, Bostic, Mester, Brainard and Evans (after whom we stopped counting): flocking together are those birds of a feather. And again we opine: why are they waiting for 16 March when they “ought” just pull the trigger a week Wednesday, 26 January?

‘Course the Fed could fool us and raise rates inter-meeting, à la Paul Volcker’s 06 October 1979 “Saturday Night Massacre”, following which the S&P fell a full -10% in just 15 trading days; (if you’re still scoring, that in today’s “Dow” terms would be a 3,600-point drop).

Further for the record, Gold settled that prior day (05 October 1979) at 393, from which it lurched +122% to the aforementioned 873 come 21 January 1980, (i.e. in less than four months). Again we query: “Got Gold?”. Repeat same today and from 1817 we’d see 4034, practically smack-on today’s opening Gold Scoreboard “valuation” level of 4087! Not so far-fetched after all, is it? No ’tisn’t.

However, then there’s “The Now”, indeed the “Sleepy Now”. A week ago we made a fairly iron-clad technical case for Gold to fall near-term some “62 points, suggestive of 1735”. ‘Twas based on Gold’s daily MACD (“moving average convergence divergence”) having approximated such drop on the prior 12 like negative crossings. But as stated above: “…everything that used to work no longer does…” So rather than drop, Gold netted a sleepy up week as we next see per the rightmost weekly bar:


Puts us in mind of George Kennedy’s observation of the north face climbers in “The Eiger Sanction” (1975): “…they won’t be able to come down… they won’t be able to go up… they’ll be stuck…” That’s Gold these days.

Next, we break it down into the last three months of daily bars for Gold on the left and Silver on the right. Whilst both precious metals are for the moment in linear regression uptrends, the declining “Baby Blues” depict such respective trends as weakening:


Then we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (at left) and Silver (at right). If you get out your Funkin’ Wagnalls and look up the definition of “hodgepodge”, you’ll see these two charts:


And for what ’tis worth in a stagnant market — albeit with stagflation lurking in the balance — here’s The Gold Stack:

The Gold Stack

Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4087
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 2089 (07 August 2020)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 2075 (06 August 2020)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
2022’s High: 1833 (06 January)
Trading Resistance: 1821
Gold Currently: 1817, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 19 points)
Trading Support: 1815 / 1809 / 1800 / 1791
The 300-Day Moving Average: 1807 and falling
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 1783
10-Session directional range: down to 1781 (from 1833) = -52 points or -2.8%
2021’s Low: 1781 (08 March)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 1768
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240

Finally: we bid a fond farewell to LIBOR. During our three-year stint with Barclays back in the 80s, ’twas really cool to talk LIBOR. It was like being “in the know”, a real cocktail party attention-getting dazzler versus boring old “Prime”: “We’re international, baby. The Big Time!” And now ’tis gone. But today with stagflation in the offing, we primed to see Gold become The Big Time!


Predictions For Gold 2022

It is worth taking a look back at some earlier predictions to help put things in perspective.


Gold Forecast $6000, And Gold Mining Analysis Through Visualization January 23, 2012

Quote: “If the current gold bull market was to follow the timing and extent of the 70s bull market, the gold price would reach $6000 before 2014.”

The price of gold on the day the article appeared in print was $1679 oz. In March 2014 the price of gold was down to $1382 oz. and by year end 2014 gold was priced at $1181 oz.

How far off base can a price prediction be? Not only did gold not reach the target price, it went in the opposite direction – beginning that same month – and proceeded to decline by thirty percent over the next two years, ending at $1205.00 per ounce on December 31, 2014.

The problem is not the plausibility of $6000.00 gold. It is both plausible and possible. However, the prediction was specifically time-oriented and horrendously misjudged in terms of timing and direction.


JPMorgan Forecasts Gold $1,800 By Mid 2013 February 1, 2013

Quote: “JPMorgan Sees Gold At $1,800 By Mid 2013 As South Africa “In Crisis” And “Escalating Instability” In Middle East J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said gold will rise to $1,800 an ounce by the middle of 2013, with the mining industry in South Africa “in crisis,” according to Bloomberg.“

The price of gold on the date the headline appeared was $1667.00 per ounce. Five months later on June 29, 2013, the price of gold was $1233.00 per ounce.

The call for $1800.00 gold was a ‘safe’ prediction. Only an eight percent increase from the existing (then) level of $1667.00 would have resulted in a gold price of $1800.00.

But, as in the previous example, the price went south with a vengeance. In this case, gold’s price dropped twenty-six percent in five short months.


The time periods which we consider and focus on with respect to analysis and investing – be it gold, stocks, real estate, etc. – have become increasingly short-term. In fact, the financial markets seem to be more characteristic of casino-type activity. Investing has become speculation.

Also the volatility is exponentially greater. At times it seems more like a crap-shoot than fundamental investing, with products such as leveraged ETFs, options on futures, and more.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not against speculating. Speculators serve the markets well and provide liquidity which otherwise might not be there. Their role is critical to the orderly function of the markets. Things would always be worse without speculators. But the nature of the financial markets has changed radically and investors need to recognize that fact.

The single most serious factor of concern with regard to orderly functioning of today’s financial markets is systemic risk. This is true on a world-wide basis and no country or market is immune.

With these things in mind, can anyone really make predictions with any degree of reliability or accuracy? I think not. And the predictions that are made seem to be either too traditionally conservative given the explosive – and implosive – nature of the markets; or they tend to be just plain ridiculous.


The average monthly closing price for gold in July 2020 was $1971 oz. which was followed the next month by an intraday peak of $2058 oz.

Due to the additional loss in US dollar purchasing power since that time, the inflation-adjusted gold price peak for August 2020 is now $2114 oz.

With gold at $1820 oz. the current upside potential is limited to approximately $290 oz., ($2114 oz. – $1820 oz), or sixteen percent. (see The Meaning Behind Gold’s Triple Top)

On the other hand, with near-term potential downside for gold at $1375-1400 oz. (see Gold Has Lots Of Potential Downside), the risk reward ratio is unfavorable for bets on the long side.


A suggestion to the gold ‘swamis’: rather than more predictions, how about new resolutions? Some possibilities might include:

  1. Resolve to view gold for what it is – real money; not an investment.
  2. Study and learn the history of gold as money.
  3. Stop expecting gold to be the “next big thing”.
  4. Scale back your unrealistic expectations.
    Have a fabulous 2022!

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

Gold Has Gained Value During 4 of the Last 5 Weeks

Gold daily chart

Gold continues to trade in a range-bound manner, but over the last five weeks, gold prices have gained value during four of those weeks. Although gold has traded lower yesterday and today, ending the week with a moderate gain of 0.6%. For the most part, we have seen gold trade through the eyes of the weekly chart with a succession of higher lows. What has been lacking is a series of higher highs based upon the high achieved in June 2022 when gold topped out at $1920.

KGX Index

U.S. equities had mild to moderate gains, with both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ composite closing higher on the day. However, the Dow Jones industrial average did close lower by 0.56%.

For the most part, market participants and analysts have factored in a much more aggressive Federal Reserve with the anticipation of three or four interest rate hikes this year. The current assumption based on information released from the Federal Reserve is that each rate hike will be ¼%. That means that if they move forward with this more aggressive monetary policy, they will raise rates only 1% this entire year which would take the Fed fund rate from its current fix of zero to ¼%. This means that by the end of 2022 fed funds rate would be fixed between 1% and 1 ¼%.

With recently released data in regards to current inflationary pressures, the Bureau of Economic Statistics has confirmed what analysts and Americans have known for quite some time, and that is that inflationary pressures continue to spiral to higher levels with the CPI (consumer price index) now fixed at 7% in December year over year.

This brings us to the current dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve’s more hawkish or aggressive monetary policy cannot curtail the current rise of inflationary pressures to any great degree. Many analysts, including myself, acknowledge that the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy as it stands with a more hawkish demeanor cannot have any dramatic effect on the cost of goods and services by themselves. Any real hope of seeing inflationary pressures diminish must be accomplished through a combination of actions by the administration as well as the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

As the data has clearly illustrated, the current level of inflation is based upon the high pent-up demand during the first year and ½ of the recession which in essence began in March 2020. As we approach the second anniversary of the onset of the recession, which is a direct result of a global pandemic in many ways, we are much closer to understanding the new Covid-19 virus.

However, that understanding has indicated that we are far from having any real handle on eradicating the virus. What is happening is that the virus has had a global impact as new waves created by mutations or variants of the original virus strain continue to wreak havoc on economies worldwide. It seems as though the question of what a new normal will look like at the end of the pandemic contains the real possibility that there will not be a conclusion or a point in time when the Covid-19 virus simply does not exist. Rather it is beginning to seem likely that global citizens health organizations and countries will learn more effective measures to deal with the rapid spreading of variants as they emerge.

This might mean that we are currently experiencing the new “normal,” and life, as we know it from the pre-pandemic days, will never completely return. As such people will continue their daily lives with this issue and learn to adapt to it.

Wishing you as always good trading and good health,

For those who would like more information simply use this link.

Gary S. Wagner