Silver Price Forecast – Silver markets continue to be very noisy during Tuesday trading

Silver markets continue to be very noisy, as the Tuesday session was more of the same. I believe there is a massive longer-term support level between $15.50 and $15, so it makes sense that we would continue to bounce. At this point, I think if we broke down below the $15 level, then the market could break down a bit more significantly. However, every time we have tried to break down below the $15 level, the buyers have come back into push this market to the upside. I believe in buying silver for the longer-term “buy-and-hold” investment, so I prefer to buy silver in its physical form these days. However, CFD markets also offer the opportunity to scale into your position as opposed to jumping into a futures contract, which of course can be extraordinarily volatile and expensive.

I have no interest in shorting, I’m looking for value in this market going forward, and I believe that we should get plenty of opportunities. Short-term CFD trading might be the best way to deal with this market, picking up value every time we pull back. Pay attention to the central banks this week, that of course will have a lot to do with how precious metals behave. If we did break down, I think the next major battle is at the $15 level, where I would anticipate seeing a lot of demand for the Silver markets. If we break out to the upside, clear the $15.65 level, then the market probably goes to the $15.85 level next.

SILVER Video 01.08.18

Crude Oil Price Forecast – crude oil markets break down on Tuesday

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market has found the $70 level to be far too much, as we have dropped over 2% early on Tuesday in futures trading. The market has cleared the $69 level, and now looks set to test the $68.50 level as I record this, and perhaps even lower levels than that. I think at this point, it’s obvious that the oversupply of oil will continue to be a major issue, and if the US dollar were to continue strengthening, that could be a major problem for this market as well. I believe that selling rallies will continue to be the way going forward, as crude oil has suddenly shifted attitude.

Brent

Brent markets rolled over pretty significantly during the trading session as well, as the $75.50 level has offered too much resistance. Breaking down below there to the $74.50 level, and perhaps even lower than that. The market has been very shaky at the top of this range, and it makes sense that we could see sellers coming back in. On the other hand, the market could break above the $76 level, and if it does they Brent markets could go much higher. Otherwise, I anticipate that we will continue to see a “sell on the rallies” type of situation develop.

If we break down below the $75 handle, the market will then go looking towards the $73 level, perhaps even the $72.50 level. I think that if the US dollar continues to strengthen, that will only add more fuel to the fire over here as well. I will wait for a bounce, and then go looking for a shorting opportunity.

Oil Forecast Video 01.08.18

Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural gas markets take off on Tuesday

Natural gas markets have rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, gaining roughly 1% by the time the Americans took over. The $2.85 level of course is psychologically important, and there has been a bit of noise in this area recently. However, I think it’s only a matter of time before buyers come in on dips looking for value. The reason I say this is that the longer-term charts dictate that the $2.70 level below is supportive, while the $3.00 level above is resistant. In fact, we have been consolidating in this range for a while, and I would anticipate that we will simply make a return to the other side. Granted, the $2.85 level is essentially the “fair value” area in this consolidation range, but it takes a certain amount of wherewithal to clear that area and then have the buyers take over completely. I think we are about to see that but may have to drift down towards the $2.78 level.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to stay within the range for the foreseeable future, and as we have recently bounce from the lows, it makes sense that we go looking towards the tops again. In general, the market continues to be very noisy, but that’s nothing new to anyone who has traded this market in the past, as it tends to focus on short-term scenarios and whether in the United States. Technically speaking though, I think we continue to see buyers.

NATGAS Video 01.08.18

Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets forming a base

The Gold markets did bounce yet again at the $1218 level on Tuesday, as we continue to see this market try to form a longer-term base. I believe that the market will eventually bounce longer-term, but right now I think we also need to test this lower level. I believe that there is a ton of support at the $1200 level, and of course if you keep in mind that there are a lot of announcements of the next couple of days it will influence the US dollar, the British pound, and by extension Gold.

Gold markets will be sensitive to the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and of course the jobs number on Friday. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will go higher but I think you should be very cautious about your position size and keep it rather small or at the very least unlevered. Longer-term traders I think are picking up cheap gold near the $1200 level, but if we were to break down below there it’s likely that we could drop down to the $1000 level. That’s an area that should bring in massive buying, and I would back up the truck at that point. However, I believe that we won’t even get there. I believe we are starting to come close to forming a bottom in the gold market, but of course headlines can change everything in the blink of an eye these days. I’d be a buyer, but I’d be a cautious buyer on dips.

Gold Outlook Video 01.08.18

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to Pivot at $1232.90 Will Set the Tone Today

December Comex Gold futures finished higher on Tuesday after buyers rejected an attempt by sellers to reach a new low for the year. The catalyst behind the move was a rebound in the Chinese Yuan against the U.S. Dollar. The Chinese currency rose after a report said that the U.S. and China were trying to restart negotiations to defuse a trade war.

Comex Gold
Daily December Comex Gold

 Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum may have shifted to the upside with the formation of a closing price reversal bottom on Tuesday.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1244.70. A trade through $1222.60 will negate the reversal bottom and a move through $1221.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

A trade through $1237.80 will confirm Tuesday’s closing price reversal bottom. It will also shift momentum to the upside. If it generates enough upside momentum, buyers may even take a shot at $1244.70.

The short-term range is $1221.00 to $1244.70. Its 50% level or pivot at $1232.90 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The main range is $1278.20 to $1221.00. Its retracement zone at $1249.60 to $1256.40 is the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The market closed on Tuesday at $1232.90. This is also the same price as the pivot controlling its near-term direction.

A sustained move over $1232.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to go after yesterday’s high at $1237.80. Taking out this level will confirm the reversal bottom and shift momentum to the upside. This could drive the market into the main top at $1244.70.

Taking out $1244.70 will change the trend to up. This could lead to a test of $1249.60 to $1256.40.

A sustained move under $1232.90 will signal the presence of sellers. If the selling volume increases on this move then look for a drive into $1222.60 then $1221.00. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Crude Oil Price Update – Buyers Rejected at Retracement Zone Again

September West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled lower on Monday as investors expressed concerns over increased output from OPEC which appeared to reach its high for the year in July. Furthermore, both U.S. WTI futures and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures posted their biggest monthly decline since July 2016.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily September WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but the price action indicates momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside as buyers were once again rejected at a key retracement zone.

Taking out $70.43 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $67.56 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $68.26 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is $72.98 to $66.29. Its retracement zone at $69.64 to $70.42 is resistance. This zone has been providing actual resistance for 5 straight sessions, having stopped the rally at $70.43 on Monday.

The short-term range is $67.56 to $70.43. The market closed below its pivot at $69.00, suggesting a downside bias is developing.

Another main range comes in at $67.99 to $66.81. This is the next downside target. It is currently support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the close at $68.74, the direction of the September WTI crude oil market early Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at $69.00.

A sustained move under $69.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move gathers enough downside momentum then look for the market to test $68.26 then $67.99.

Taking out $67.99 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of $67.56 and a change in trend if this bottom is broken.

A sustained move over $69.00 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a retest of the retracement zone at $69.64. If sellers return then this should be the final retest of this area before the trend changes to down. However, taking out $70.43 could launch an acceleration to the upside.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Whipsaw and Remain Undervalued Despite Low Inventories

Natural gas prices attempted to move higher on Tuesday but they were unable to pierce through resistance levels near last weeks highs at 2.83. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.78.  Inventory levels remain near the lower end of the 5-year range according to the Department of Energy.  Trader’s now await both the ISM manufacturing report which will describe potential manufacturing driven demand and Thursday’s inventory report from the Energy Information Administration.  Natural gas prices are 12% below the 5-year average, which is 3.14, which makes them relatively cheap when comparing them to the 5-year average inventory level.

Natural gas prices whipsawed on Tuesday attempting to move higher but unable to pierce through last weeks highs. While momentum is positive and the MACD histogram continues to have a positive trajectory, the fast stochastic has quickly moved from an oversold condition to an overbought condition. A break of 80 level on the fast stochastic could foreshadow a correction.

Inventory levels are now at the bottom end of the 5-year range.  According to the EIA natural gas inventories are 705 Bcf less than last year at this time and 557 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,830 Bcf. At 2,273 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range, but just barely above it.  The injection season for natural gas ends at the end of October and there needs to be a substantial increase in stocks to reach the 5-year average range.

The current weather conditions show that weather is moving west to east with a standard zonal flow. It also appears that a troughing pattern is developing where warm weather is pushing up and covering most of the mid-west. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal over the next 8-14 and 6-10 day forecast according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administrations. Warmer than normal weather will increase power demand especially in Southern California where natural gas is used to generate electricity.

Gold Price Prediction – Gold Trades Sideways Despite Despite Rally in the Greenback

Gold prices move higher on Tuesday, despite a rally in the greenback, following an unexpected dovish Bank of Japan interest rate decision.  Gold appears to be stuck in a tight trading range, unable to pierce through resistance near the 10-day moving average near $1,225.  Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger U.S. currency generally equates to headwinds for the yellow metal.  There also appears to be strong support near the July lows and an upward sloping trend line that connects the lows in July 2017 to the lows in July 2018 and comes in near 1,225.  A break of this level would lead to a test of the July 2017 lows at 1,204.

The sideways price action has generated a crossover buy signal in both the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index and the fast stochastic. Both are momentum indicators that describe accelerating and decelerating momentum. The MACD crossover occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

The gold forward curve moved in favor of the greenback. This interest rate curve tends to follow both the differential between the U.S. and bund 10-year curve as well as the differential between the U.S. and Japanese government bond curve. With the Bank of Japan keeping rates unchanged and signally that they do not believe they will be able to get inflation to their target of 2% until March of 2021, the yield differential between the U.S. and the Japanese government bond moved in favor of the U.S. bond, making the dollar more attractive and generating headwinds for gold prices.  With the USD/JPY making a move higher, it pulled the entire dollar index higher, which could generate a further breakout in the greenback. Traders now await Wednesday ISM manufacturing report as well as Friday’s U.S. unemployment report.

Commodities Daily Forecast – July 31, 2018

Gold

The gold prices rallied slightly higher during the Monday’s session as it found enough support from the $1218 level. The market is expected to continue noisy over the next few sessions as it is looking towards the job figures and decision on rate hikes from Federal Reserve later this week. The $1225 level above will offer short-term resistance with $1200 level underneath as a strong support point. …Read More

Silver

The silver market rallied a bit during the Monday’s session reaching towards the $15.65 level, and if it breaks above this level, then it will be extremely positive development and will send the pair towards the $15.80 level and $16 level eventually. The $15.50 level underneath will continue to offer strong support to the market. …Read More

WTI Crude Oil

The crude oil prices exploded higher during the yesterday’s session reaching towards the $70.50 level, an area which is massively resistive. The market is expected to get a pullback from here, as the current fundamentals don’t support such higher levels. However, if it breaks above the $70.50 with significant momentum, then the market could reach towards the $74 level. …Read More

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas prices had been very volatile during the yesterday’s session, initially gapping lower breaking below the $2.77 level, an area that had been providing support. The market seems confused about the current momentum, given the yesterday’s price movement. And, if it further breaks below the $2.72 level, then sellers will hammer the prices further lower towards the $2.60 level. …Read More

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Could Test $2.831 to $2.869 if Heat Returns

Natural gas futures are trading nearly flat shortly before the regular session opening. Traders continue to digest the latest weather news while pricing in the early estimates of this week’s U.S. storage data. Furthermore, we could start to see a slow down in the buying as the market approaches a key technical retracement zone. A test of this area could bring in the hedgers, which would stop the rally.

At 0941 GMT, September Natural Gas futures are trading $2.797, unchanged.

Traders started the week looking at weather forecasts that were leaning toward slightly cooler. However, at midday, the forecast shifted to hotter temperatures. This helped underpin prices into the close.

At midday, NatGasWeather said that it saw the return of heat “especially for next week, seeing a stronger ridge over the eastern half of the country.”

They went on to say that, “The data had been a little cooler trending around August 9, seeing a weather system into the Midwest and Northeast, although the more recent data isn’t as convincing as we see ways the hot ridge blocks any weather systems that try to dip down out of Canada.”

“…Overall, we see the pattern trending from neutral to slightly bullish, and mainly due to further hotter trends over the eastern half of the country late this weekend into the following week,” the firm said. “Going forward, we expect the markets will be more sensitive to hotter trends over cooler trends, especially after two straight bullish misses from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report and due to deficits remaining hefty.”

Forecast

Looking ahead to Thursday’s EIA report, the early estimate shows a 40 Bcf to 45 Bcf build for the week-ending July 27. Last year, the EIA recorded an 18 Bcf injection, and the five-year average is a build of 43 Bcf.

Technically, it’s all going to come down to how traders respond to the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $2.831 to $2.869.

Fundamentally, the bullish traders are going to try to drive the market higher on the back of the weather reports that are calling for heat to return the second week of August.

Bearish traders are counting on an increase in production to keep a lid on prices and perhaps drive them lower if the weather pattern changes and cooler temperatures return.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Strong PCE Index Data Should Pressure Prices

Gold futures are edging lower shortly before the regular session opening on Tuesday. The move is basically mirroring the price action in the U.S. Dollar index, which firmed after the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement.

At 0851 GMT, December Comex Gold futures are trading $1227.90, down $3.60 or -0.29%.

The dollar is trading higher against the Japanese Yen after the BOJ made small tweaks to monetary policy rather than more drastic changes that some investors had priced into the market early last week. Today’s price action reflects those short sellers covering positions to offset last week’s trade.

To recap the BOJ’s policy changes, the central bank said long-term interest rates may fluctuate depending on economic and price developments and that it would conduct its bond-buying program flexibly.

The BOJ also maintained its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1 percent and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around zero percent by a 7-2 vote.

Additionally, the BOJ said it would take time for inflation to hit its 2 percent target.

Forecast

Given the slew of fresh economic news from the U.S. today, we’re likely to see some movement in the U.S. Dollar and consequently in the gold market. Of particular interest will be the impact these reports have on U.S. interest rates.

Bullish news should help raise yields, which would make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment. This would likely lead to renewed pressure on gold which hit a one-year low a little more than a week ago.

At just about the same time the Federal Open Market Committee starts its two-day interest rate policy meeting, it will get to see its preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures price index – or Core PCE Price Index.

Investors expect the PCE data to show an increase of 2% year-on-year, the same as in May. Monthly, look for a 0.1% rise, versus 0.2% the previous month.

A larger than expected increase will increase the odds of additional Fed rate hikes this year, which should support the dollar and pressure gold prices.

Other key reports include Personal Spending and Personal Income which are expected to increase 0.4%.

The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to increase 6.4% and Chicago PMI is expected to come in at 61.9, down from 64.1.

The last major report of the day at 1400 GMT is the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence. It is expected to come in slightly better at 126.5, up from 126.4. Traders will be looking to see if consumer concerns over the on-going trade dispute between the US and China show up in this report.

Gold should remain under pressure today as long as prices stay under $1232.90. If selling volume begins to increase upon the release of bullish U.S. economic data then sellers may take a shot at $1221.00. Crossing to the strong side of $1232.90 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to the start of a meaningful short-covering rally.

Gold Trapped Inside Broad Price Band Ahead of Multiple Central Bank Rate Decisions

XAUUSD is currently trading at $1221.30 with 0.39% decrease in value and the price action indicates that the pair is trapped in short price band of $1225 to $1215 in short-term and wider price band of $1235 to $1210 in medium to long-term as outlook for US Greenback remains positive in medium term while short-term price action for USD remains dovish resulting from cautious investor stance ahead of multiple central bank rate decisions. Dollar nominated precious metals are greatly affected by strong US Greenback as metals which are non-interest investments and lose luster when bonds and US Greenback trade positive with better returns.

As of writing this article, US Gold futures for August delivery are trading at $1219.80 with 0.12% increase in value. Downside movement of US Greenback has now slowed down and USD is expected to grow stronger ahead of Fed rate decision tomorrow as the US dollar pared early losses on the yen amid guarded reaction to what was seen as only minor tweaks to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) ultra-easy monetary policy.

Gold Prices Under Pressure

Silver remains relatively less affected when looking at price action on a daily chart as the price of spot silver XAGUSD remains flat around $15.45 handle despite minor news based fluctuations. In short-term, spot silver is expected to be trapped within $15.40 to $15.50 price range. A major shift in US Greenback’s momentum could affect price action of silver but look at the current momentum of US Greenback and volatility expected this week, silver is expected to remain trapped in above-mentioned price range during rest of trading session for the week.

Gold Hourly
Gold Hourly

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after a report showed that OPEC production reached a 2018 high in the month of July, although the losses were limited as concerns about supply lingered. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were down 6 cents at $70.08, after rising more than 2 percent in the previous session. A Reuter’s survey showed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries increased production in July. OPEC hiked production by 70,000 barrels per day to 32.64 million bpd, a 2018 high. Further supply increases could offset production outages and pressure prices.


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WTI rose on Tuesday on expectations that U.S. inventories fell last week and worry that an outage at a Syncrude facility in Canada will not be solved as soon as expected. Crude inventories at the Oklahoma, delivery point for WTI has been dwindling, in part due to the Syncrude outage that has reduced the flow of oil into the hub. Oil prices have rebounded from recent lows over the last two weeks, as looming sanctions on Iran have already started to curtail exports from that country. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he would meet with Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Traders Looking for Direction from API, EIA Data

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark crude oil futures are trading lower early Monday. Volume continues to be relatively low ahead of the last trading day of the month. And speaking of the end of the month, Brent futures are in a position to post their biggest monthly loss in two years.

At 0640 GMT, September WTI crude oil is trading $69.80, down $0.31 or -0.46% and October Brent crude oil is at $75.30, down $0.25 or -0.33%.

The main concern for traders early Tuesday is oversupply. This comes on the heels of a report which showed OPEC’s output in July rose to its highest for 2018.

According to a Reuters survey, OPEC increased production in July. The report shows that the cartel hiked production by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 32.64 million bpd, the most this year.

In other news, U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to soften his approach to Iran, saying on Monday he would meet with President Hassan Rouhani without any preconditions. Remember that it was only a week ago that he threatened on Twitter to unleash severe consequences on Iran. If this in some way led to a softer stance on Iranian exports then prices could weaken.

Currently, the United States remains firm on its plan to cut Iranian exports to zero under the sanctions it pledged to reintroduce in May.

Additionally, the market is being supported by Saudi Arabia’s shutdown of a key waterway.

Forecast

Losses could be limited on Tuesday because ahead of the regular trading session, investors are already looking for support from this week’s American Petroleum Institute and U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory reports.

Early estimates are calling for the API and EIA reports to show a drawdown of about 3.2 million barrels during the week-ended July 27.

Perhaps limiting gains, however, may be a report from energy information company Genscape that showed inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the WTI futures hub, rose almost 200,000 barrels, or nearly 1 percent, from Tuesday to Friday last week, according to traders.

The daily chart supports the idea of a balanced market. However, this could change with the API and EIA data. Basically, look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $70.42 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $69.64.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Traders Respecting Pivot at $1232.90

Gold futures are inching lower in a quiet trade early Tuesday. The market is also posting an inside move for a second consecutive session, indicating investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders are waiting to hear from the Bank of Japan later today and the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday before committing to a position.

At 0456 GMT, December Comex Gold futures are trading $1231.20, down $0.40 or -0.03%.

Once again, the price action will be primarily driven by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar.

Comex Gold
Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1244.70 will change the main trend to up. A move through $1221.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1226.30 will signal the return of sellers after a couple of days of sideways trading.

The short-term range is $1221.00 to $1244.70. Its 50% level or pivot at $1232.90 is controlling the near-term direction.

The main range is $1278.20 to $1221.00. If the trend changes to up then look for a test of its retracement zone at $1249.60 to $1256.40.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of December Comex gold market on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1232.90.

A sustained move under $1232.90 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could pressure the market into $1226.30. Taking out this level could trigger a spike into $1221.00. The daily chart is wide open under this bottom with the next major target $1162.00.

A sustained move over $1232.90 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see a surge into $1244.70, followed closely by $1249.60.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver rallies to start the week

Silver markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, to kick off the week. I think it we can finally break above the $15.65 level, it’s likely that the market will then go looking towards the $15.88 level. There is a lot of noise in this market, but at this point I do believe that silver is trying to form a bit of a base. Between the $15.50 level in the $15 level, there is a ton of demand. That doesn’t mean that we are going to take off to the upside immediately, but I do think that pullbacks offer value that traders will be willing to take advantage of.

I believe that the market will continue to be very loud, but that’s nothing new for Silver traders. Over the longer-term, I believe that the market will probably go looking towards those highs at the $15.88 level, I think that pullbacks will be supported at various levels, but most importantly the $15.35 level which has been tested a couple of times now. If we were to break down below that level, then I think we probably go closer to the $15 level where I would expect a ton of buyers to jump in. If we were to break down below the $15, that would be a major event longer-term for this market, something that I don’t see happening anytime soon. Pay attention to the US dollar, if it starts to fall again that should help silver.

SILVER Video 31.07.18

Crude Oil Price Forecast – crude oil markets bullish to kick off the week

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market has exploded to the upside, reaching towards the $70.50 level in the CFD market, an area that began significant resistance. I believe that market participants will find that there is a lot of supply appear, so I would not be surprised at all to see this market role right back over. However, if we can break above the $70.50 level, then I think that the market will find itself going much higher. This is a market that is going to remain volatile and was rocked a bit by missile attacks against to Saudi tankers. Overall though, this should not have a longer-term effect as the Saudis have already suggested that they will not suspend traffic.

Brent

Brent markets broke above the $75 level, an area of major supply. The market looks likely to continue to find sellers just above, and at this point I think we are probably going to see this market roll back over. If we break above the $75.35 level, then I think we can go higher. However, I believe that we have gotten a bit overextended, and therefore a pullback is all but imminent. I would anticipate the $74 level underneath the be supportive, and I think that the breaking of that level would be very negative. I don’t necessarily expect that, but I do think that we will get some selling pressure in this general vicinity. Obviously, the US dollar will have its influence on this market as well, as if it strengthens that could also add to selling pressure.

Crude Oil Video 31.07.18

Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural gas markets very noisy on Monday

Natural gas markets have gapped lower to kick off the week, and then broke down to the $2.77 level, an area that had been support of last week. I think at this point the market is trying to figure out where to go next, and therefore I would anticipate a lot of volatility. Overall, I do think that we are closer to the bottom of the overall range, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see a bit of a pop over the next several sessions. That doesn’t mean is going to be easy, and there is a lot of noise just above current pricing. Because of this, I believe that stepping away from natural gas is probably the best trade right now, as we are not in a major supply or a major demand zone.

Looking at the charts, you can see that there is a lot of confusion, but I would point out that the $2.70 level is a major support level that extends down to the $2.60 level. In other words, look at the longer-term charts we are much closer to demand then we are supply. The major supply level above is at the $3.00 level, a long way from here. That being said, I think short-term pullbacks could be nice buying opportunities as we have already seen during the day. At this point, I do remain bearish longer-term for natural gas, but I do think that we stay within the overall range for the foreseeable future, meaning that we have much more risk to the upside at this point.

NATGAS Video 31.07.18

Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets recover after initially falling on Monday

I believe the Gold markets will continue to be very noisy over the next several days, because we have several central banks speaking, and of course the jobs number on Friday. This of course has a major influence on the US dollar, which by extension has a major influence on the gold market. I do like Gold longer-term, but I also recognize that we need to have a bit of base building first. If we can get that, then I think the market probably goes to the $1250 level.

In the short term, I believe that the $1235 level is going to offer a bit of resistance, so my plan for the next several days is to trade back and forth between $1215 on the bottom, and $1235 on the top. That gives us a $20 range to play with, which makes a lot of sense when we have the jobs number coming out later in the week, that we would have a serious lack of convention in the market. Overall, I believe that the market has been oversold for some time, but this basing pattern can take a while to form as well. I believe there are plenty of opportunities to buy gold on dips, and I also believe that longer-term traders and physical traders are starting to pick up a bit of the metal because it is cheap.

Gold Analysis Video 31.07.18

Crude Oil Price Update – Big Decision for Investors as Market Tests Retracement Zone at $69.64 to $70.42

U.S. crude oil prices are trading lower early Tuesday after reaching a two-week high on Monday. Sellers came in early in the session after a report showed that OPEC production reached a 2018 high in the month of July.

At 0408 GMT, September West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading $69.77, down $0.36 or -0.51%.

According to Reuters, OPEC increased output by 70,000 barrels per day in July. That marks a slowdown in production growth in June, when the 15-member cartel hiked production by 173,000 bpd.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily September WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Monday when buyers took out last week’s high at $62.92. The main trend will change to down when sellers take out $67.56.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $68.26 will change the minor trend to down. The next upside target is the minor top at $70.60.

The main range is $72.98 to $66.29. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $69.64 to $70.42. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $67.56 to $70.43. Its 50% level or pivot at $69.00 is support.

The major support zone is $67.99 to $66.81.


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Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the September WTI crude oil futures contract on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $69.64.

A sustained move over $69.64 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this can generate enough upside momentum then look for a retest of the Fib level at $70.42 and yesterday’s high at $70.43.

Crossing to the strong side of $70.42 will mean the buying is increasing. Look for an acceleration to the upside if buyers can take out the minor top at $70.60 will increasing volume. The daily chart shows there is no resistance until $72.98 over the minor top.

A sustained move under $69.64 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a fast break into the next 50% level at $69.00.

The daily chart starts to open up under $69.00 with the next potential downside targets coming in at $68.26 to $67.99.

Basically, the direction of crude oil this week will be determined by trader reaction to the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $69.64 to $70.42.

Gold Price Prediction – Gold Consolidates as Dollar Remains Stable

Gold prices continued to consolidate in a tight range just below resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,225.  Support is seen near the July lows at 1,211 and then the July 2017 lows at 1,204.  Weaker than expected confidence in Euro was countered by a bounce in U.S. pending home sales which kept the yellow metal stable.  Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal which points to accelerating negative momentum. Momentum as reflected by the MACD is unchanged as the index is printing near the zero index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation.

With yields in the U.S. having a difficult time breaking through the 3% market for the 10-year treasury, gold prices have remained buoyed.  The 10-year yield should be the tell for traders. A break through the 3% mark, should increase the yield differential over German yields providing an impetus for a rally in the U.S. dollar, paving the way for lower gold prices.

Traders Await Payroll Report

While inflation in Europe is climbing providing the backdrop for a stronger than expected Euro, traders await this weeks employment report from the Department of Labor.  Expecations are for an increase of 190K jobs and a drop of the employment rate. The dollar has been trading steady, providing the backdrop for a stable gold price.  With little in the way of geopolitics, the yellow metal remains stable.  U.S. yields have been stable over the past 2-weeks after testing the 3% handle earlier in 2018.  The yield curve has flattened which forecasts a potential recession despite a rebound in pending home sales.  Housing data throughout last week were weaker than expected.  New homes sales as well as existing home sales were softer than expected, given the recent increase in rates. Inflation data released in Germany and Spain were in line with expectations allowing the EUR/USD  to remain stable.