Crude Oil Price Forecast – another volatile session for Black Gold

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market reaches high as $69.80 during trading pre-market, but once the futures traders in America got involved, they slammed the market back down to the $69.15 area. Since then, we have bounced quite nicely and it looks as if the market is going to continue to try to grind to the upside, but I see so much in the way of resistance above the $70 that I think it’s going to take a specific “supply negative event” for traders to jump in and bust through this major barrier that I think it extends to the $71 level. I believe that we continue to see a lot of chop in the short term.

Brent

Brent markets were a bit more resilient, as they recovered the losses much quicker. The $75 level above continues offer significant resistance though, and I think it is going to take some type of news item to finally push this market above there. After that, I see significant resistance near the $75.50 level as well. In other words, although Brent looks resilient, it’s got a lot of work ahead of it to continue the move higher. On the other side of that coin, I see significant support below at the $74 level, so I think we are going to continue to see a lot of back-and-forth over here as well, making it an ideal commodity to trade back and forth on short-term charts.

Oil Forecast Video 08.08.18

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Bulls continue to push towards the $3.00

Natural gas markets have been more volatile as of late and have surged quite nicely over the last several trading sessions. This seems to be the pattern though, as we continue to bounce around between the $2.60 level in the $3.00 level above. Remember though, I have been talking about the resistance “zone” above, that extends to the $3.10 level. It is because of this that I think we will get a sell signal eventually, but you might want to look for a little bit of confirmation before jumping in on the short side. You might find yourself a bit early, which is fine if you are willing to take the risk, but psychologically it can be difficult.

I think that short-term pullbacks will continue to find buyers underneath, with the $2.87 level being the initial support level, and then extending down to the $2.83 level. I do believe that the market is wanting to test the resistance area above, so don’t have any interest in shorting until we were to break down below the $2.83 level, something that looks a little unlikely at this point.

We have recently seen more natural gas demand in America with the hot temperatures, and of course Europe has been sweltering, driving up demand for energy to cool off its citizens. However, these are short-term factors, and therefore I think it’s only a matter of time before we returned to the norm, which is simply going back and forth in a larger rage

NATGAS Video 08.08.18

Crude Oil Price Update – Bullish API Report Could Trigger Move to $70.42 – $70.48

September West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher after the early session close as investors await the release of the weekly storage report from the American Petroleum Institute at 0830 GMT. Traders are looking for a drop in inventories of about 3.4 million barrels.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily September WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $70.43 will change the main trend to up. A move through $66.92 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The market is posting an inside move on Tuesday which tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.

The main range is $62.99 to $72.98. Its retracement zone at $67.99 to $66.81 is support. This zone stopped the selling late last week at $66.92.

The short-term range is $72.98 to $66.29. Its retracement zone at $69.64 to $70.42 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally on July 30 at $70.43.

Currently, September WTI crude oil is trading inside the two retracement zones. The longer the market remains inside this range, the bigger the breakout.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily September WTI Crude Oil (Close-Up)

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on Tuesday’s price action, the direction of the September WTI crude oil futures contract into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $69.64.

A sustained move under $69.64 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move gains momentum, we could see a break into the next uptrending Gann angle at $68.42.

We could see a technical bounce on the first test of $68.42 but if it fails then look for a further decline into the 50% level at $67.99, followed closely by the uptrending Gann angle at $67.67.

Overtaking and sustaining a move over $69.64 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a spike into a resistance cluster at $70.42, $70.43 and $70.48. Since the trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of this area. However, look for an acceleration to the upside if $70.48 is taken out with rising volume. This could trigger a move into the next downtrending Gann angle at $71.73.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Trade Sideways as Volatility Tumbles

Gold prices attempted to move higher during the European trading session but were unable to gain traction despite a weaker dollar. U.S. yields moved higher in tandem with European yields, but lost ground allowing the euro to gain traction. Stock prices moved higher which provided a risk on environment which somewhat capped golds advance.  Traders will now eye Friday’s U.S. CPI report which could helped buoy the yellow metal.  Tuesday’s JOLTs report shows that job openings continue to move higher, which should eventually put upward pressure on yields, making the dollar stronger and weighing on gold prices.

Technicals

Gold prices are hovering just above support levels, just above the July 2017 highs at 1,204. A break of that level would lead to a test of the 1,198 level and then the 1,120 region.  Resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,217. Momentum is flat as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation. The MACD line trading sideways which also reflects decelerating momentum. Prices are reflected by the fast stochastic are oversold. The current reading of 16, is below the oversold trigger level of 20 and could foreshadow a correction. In addition, the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal in oversold territory which reflects accelerating positive momentum.

Gold miners which are the shares of the companies that trade gold are breaking down, which could foreshadow a further down move in gold prices.  Implied volatility on gold is near record low levels. This means that traders do not believe that prices will experience large moves over the course of the next 12-months. This appears to coincide with the 2018 lows in the VIX volatility index which reflects that stock prices, specifically the S&P 500 index, will continue to reflect complacency.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – August 7, 2018 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures are trading higher but inside yesterday’s range. This typically indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. The weaker U.S. Dollar is underpinning gold today. Furthermore, the fact that hedge fund and money managers are net short, creates the potential for a short-covering rally.

Comex Gold
Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum seems to be ready to shift to the upside with the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on August 3.

A trade through $1212.50 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend changes to up on a move through $1244.70.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1237.80 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is $1244.70 to $1212.50. Its 50% level or pivot at $1228.60 is also controlling the short-term direction of the market. Moving above this level will also confirm the closing price reversal chart pattern, leading to a shift in momentum.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the December Comex gold market on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at $1222.70.

A sustained move over $1222.70 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into $1228.60. We could see sellers on the first test of this pivot.

Overcoming $1228.60 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of a pair downtrending Gann angles at $1233.70 and $1236.20.

Taking out $1237.80 will change the minor trend to up. This could trigger a further rally into a cluster of levels at $1244.60, $1244.70 and $1245.40.

A sustained move under $1222.70 will signal the presence of sellers. This move could create the downside momentum needed to challenge the bottom at $1212.50.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Testing Key Technical Level at $2.869, Will Hedgers Show Up to Stop Rally?

Natural gas futures are inching higher shortly before the regular session opening on Tuesday. The market is currently testing the top end of the key retracement zone. This suggests the buying is getting stronger and the market may be getting ready to breakout to the upside.

At 1110 GMT, September Natural Gas futures are trading $2.867, up $0.007 or +0.28%.

EIA Fundamentals

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced a storage build of 35 Bcf in the week-ended July 27, raising U.S. inventories to 2.308 Tcf. Total stocks are 688 Bcf now below inventories one year ago and 565 Bcf under the five-year historical average.

Short-Term Weather Forecast

According to NatGasWeather for August 7-13:  “Strong upper high pressure has set up over the East where highs will reach the mid-90s into major Northeast cities for another few days. The West will be back to very hot with highs of 90s to 100s, including the Northwest. Weather systems with showers and cooling will track the Midwest and east-central US as the week progresses, then deep into Texas and the South this weekend into next week with highs of upper-70s and 80s, easing high national demand to moderate.”

Forecast

For weeks, speculators had ignored the low levels of weekly injections and the relatively wide storage deficit, thinking that with production at record levels, the deficit would become a non-factor by the end of October. However, this all seemed to change late last week.

Last week’s rally positively affected the nearby futures contract, which reflects concerns about looming hotter temperatures, and the deferred futures contracts, which means traders are worried about having enough supply at the start of the winter heating season.

We are seeing strength early this week due to weather concerns. We could see further strength this week on storage concerns, especially if the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report misses to the downside again, however, weak August seasonality is likely to prevent an extended rally beyond the current retracement zone resistance.

We like the early strength this week, but ultimately all it’s going to do is give hedgers the opportunity to re-short positions at more favorable price levels.

Technically, the market is testing a major 50% to 61.8% level at $2.831 to $2.869. Trader reaction to this zone will set the tone for the rest of the week. We may see further short-covering over $2.869, but record production is likely to prevent a move over the recent tops at $2.992 to $3.018.

A failure at $2.869 today will signal the presence of sellers while a lower close or move under $2.831 may be signs that the high for the month has been reached.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Weaker Dollar Underpinning Prices

A weaker U.S. Dollar is helping to underpin gold futures early Tuesday. An easing of tensions over the trade dispute between the United States and China may be leading to increased demand for higher risk assets. This could be encouraging those investors who bought the dollar last week for protection to reduce their safe haven positions in the greenback.

At 0842 GMT, December Comex gold is trading $1221.30, up $3.60 or +0.30%.

Today’s session starts with gold slightly above a 17-month low reached late last week. This comes on the heels of fresh data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, showing that hedge fund and money managers had increased their net short positions.

Short-term this may be a contrarian indicator for those looking for a reason for a short-covering rally. Longer-term investors, however, feel that any rally will be met with fresh shorting and that gains will be limited because of expectations of further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The on-going U.S.-China trade dispute has also been putting pressure on gold prices. As tensions escalate, investors have been moving money into the safety of the U.S. Dollar, leading to weaker foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold.

Forecast

Today’s early price action indicates that gold prices will once again be controlled by the direction of the U.S. Dollar. Appetite for risk and U.S. economic data could play a role in its movement.

If tensions over the trade dispute continue to lessen then gold could pick up a bid as this is likely to pressure the U.S. Dollar.

In economic news, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest data on JOLTS Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and Consumer Credit.

The JOLTS Job Openings report is expected to come in at 6.74 million, up from 6.64 million.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report is forecast at 57.2, up from 56.4. Consumer Credit is estimate to have dropped from 24.6 to 16.2.

Commodities Daily Forecast – August 7, 2018

Gold

The gold prices crased significantly during the Monday’s session reaching down to the $1205 level, only to bounce a bit. There is a significant amount of support present around this level and the market is expected to hold the region. If it break below this region, then it will major reversal of trends both structurally and psychologically. The traders are likely to watch price movement of gold carefully around this region before placing their bets. …Read More

Silver

The silver prices fell hard during the yesterday’s session before stopping at $15.28 level where it got a small bounce in prices. Such pullbacks continue to attract value hunters as the $15 level underneath will continue to offer massive support. Given enough time, the silver prices will start rallying again but in the short term, it will remain choppy and volatile. …Read More

WTI Crude Oil

The crude oil market had a very noisy session in the Monday’s session, initially rallying to reach as high as $69.60 level but pulled back from there at the end of the session. As the market lacks support higher price around the $70 level, the market will continue to find sellers around this region. The $67 level underneath will continue to offer short-term support and is expected to continue trade range bound. …Read More

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas prices initially moved lower during the yesterday’s session, but then turned around to reach towards the $2.83 level, showing signs of strength. The market is expected to continue volatile as the overall forex market is strongly underperforming against the dollar. Eventually, it will find enough momentum to continue moving higher probably looking towards the $2.90 level and $3 level. …Read More

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Iranian Sanctions Begin, but Trader Comfortable with Supply

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are inching higher early Tuesday as the United States renewed sanctions against major crude exporter Iran, tightening global supply.

At 0736 GMT, September WTI crude oil is trading $69.22, up $0.22 or +0.32% and October Brent crude oil is at $74.12, up $0.37 or +0.50%.

The reintroduced sanctions against Iran, which exported nearly 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, officially came into effect at 0401 GMT on Tuesday. Traders aren’t sure how much of this oil will be kept off the market in the future because U.S. allies in Europe as well as China and India oppose the sanctions, but the U.S. government said it wants as many countries as possible to stop buying Iranian oil. With its actions, the U.S. is trying to force a regime change in Iran.

“It is our policy to get as many countries to zero as quickly as possible. We are going to work with individual countries on a case-by-case basis, but our goal is to reduce the amount of revenue and hard currency going into Iran,” a senior U.S. administration official said on Monday.

Forecast

Both WTI and Brent crude oil are in downtrends on the daily chart, however, upside momentum seems to be building. Nonetheless, both futures contracts remain rangebound, suggesting it is going to take a big volume breakout to move the markets outside their nearly one-month ranges.

For WTI crude, the resistance is $69.64 to $70.42. The trend will change to up on a move through $70.43. Support is $67.99 to $66.81. A trade through $66.92 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Brent crude is caught in a range between $72.33 to $70.67 and $75.29 and $76.22. A trade through $71.34 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $75.78 will change the trend to up.

The sanctions on Iran will take about 1 million bpd off the market, but this has been known for months. Additionally, increased output from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC and Non-OPEC investors have already taken care of the short-fall. Therefore, based on this assessment and the daily chart pattern, we have to conclude that traders are comfortable with supply at this time.

We’re looking for the sideways trade to continue until a new catalyst arises that will drive WTI and Brent out of their trading ranges.

Precious Metals Rebound As Dollar Turns Soft Amid Profit Booking

Asian stocks were largely steady on Tuesday, with worries over the U.S.-China trade conflict offsetting support from earnings-led gains on Wall Street. There’s some very light demand from China and Southeast Asia as cheap gold looks attractive to small-time investors who could not horde up on US Greenback. US Greenback is expected to continue growing higher as the possibility of multiple rate hikes by US Fed looks highly likely however positive performance of USD post hawkish earnings report in wall street has resulted in Investors cashing in on profits.

While the market outlook remains positive for US Greenback in near future, profit booking activities have resulted in US Greenback losing ground against major global currencies. DXY – US Dollar index which is used to measure the strength of the dollar in the broad market is down 0.18% at 95.19. Spot Gold XAUUSD is up 0.45% on the day at $1212.84 an ounce while US Gold Futures GCcv1 is up 0.33% at 1221.80 an ounce.

Gold & Silver Edges Up Amid Soft Dollar

Gold prices have declined nearly 12 percent since mid-April, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar from an ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute and amid expectations of higher interest rates in the United States and hit 5 week low at $ 1204.49 last Friday before making a rebound. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise benchmark lending rates, for the third time this year, at its next policy meeting in September. Higher U.S. rates tend to boost the dollar, making greenback-denominated precious metals more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Meanwhile, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.78 percent to 788.71 tonnes on Monday. Overall sentiment remains weak in light of ETF reducing positions, a strong dollar and rate hikes. A weaker dollar has resulted in a positive rebound in not just Gold but also the Silver market. Spot Silver XAGUSD is up 0.88% at $15.425 as of writing this article and is expected to continue its uptrend movement as long as Dollar remains weak in a broader market.

The escalating U.S.-China trade war is deterring hedge funds and other money managers from opening new positions in the WTI and Brent benchmarks, with total bets dropping to their lowest since 2016 in the week to July 31, according to data by European and U.S. options and futures exchanges compiled by Bloomberg. The net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in WTI dropped by 1.4 percent to 386,764 futures and options in the week ended July 31, with longs down and shorts up. Investors are backing away from betting heavily on oil in a volatile market as the U.S.-China trade war continues to escalate and as reports emerged last week that the Chinese had refused to scale back crude oil imports from Iran.

The increase in short-term bets along with softer US Dollar has helped WTIUSD performance in today’s trading hours and the pair is currently at 69.83/b with 0.42% increase in value.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver markets fall hard on Monday

Silver markets pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, dropping $0.20 initially, but then found a bit of support near the $15.28 level. There was a significant rally from just under this level a couple of days ago, so it makes sense that value hunters could be coming back. However, silver is a very choppy and difficult market to trade at times, and it’s very expensive if you are in the futures market. Because of this, you need to find a way to play the silver market for value but with a low amount of leverage.

CFD markets could be an excellent way to play this market, just as options could be in the futures market if you have the rightsizing. Buying the SLV ETF could be a solution as well, if you’re looking for a longer-term investment. At this point, I do recognize we could go lower but I would be a bit cautious about shorting with size, because we are getting close to the bottom of the longer-term support on the weekly and monthly chart. Overall, I’m bullish longer-term, but I also recognize that the US dollar needs to calm down before silver or gold could make some type of bullish move to the upside. In the meantime, I would expect a lot of choppiness, but I also think that there’s more risk to the upside than down at these levels.

SILVER Video 07.08.18

Crude Oil Price Forecast – crude oil markets very noisy on Monday

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market initially surged higher during the trading session on Monday, especially in early morning electronic trading, as we reached as high as $69.60. However, we have pulled back from there to test the $69 level and found it to be very supportive. This could be the continuation of the surge higher, but I also see a massive amount of resistance near the $70 level. Because of that, I would be very cautious for anything more than a scout to the upside. I think there is plenty of resistance near the $70 level that extends to the $71 level, so if you are patient enough, you may get a nice shorting opportunity. However, if we break above $71, this is a longer-term move to the $74 level just waiting to happen.

Brent

Brent markets initially trying to rally during the day as well but found the $74 level to be a bit resistive, and if you look back at the beginning of the month, there was a small gapped lower at that area, and it seems to be an area of supply. If we break above there, then the $75.60 level would be the next major supply level as well. In the short term, we probably rally from here but keep an eye on the US dollar, if we can get the currency markets to work against the greenback, then that could help us go a bit higher in the short term. I see support at $73.

Crude Oil Video 07.08.18

Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural gas volatile early Monday session

The natural gas markets have initially falling during the trading session on Monday, but then turned around towards the $2.83 level to show signs of strength again. The market is very volatile, but quite frankly the financial markets in general have been very noisy, so of course natural gas will be any different. I think that we do eventually go higher, but we may need to have a couple pullbacks to get value hunters into the situation. I believe that this market will go looking towards the $2.90 level, perhaps even the $3.00 level. Once we get to that area, I suspect that the selling pressure will probably overwhelm as it is a longer-term resistance barrier for the longer-term consolidation.

If we do break down below the $2.82 level, the market probably goes down to the $2.78 level next. That’s an area where I think heavy buying would come back in, but if we were to break down below that level, then we would probably go back down to the $2.70 level which is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation area, a zone that extends down to the $2.60 level. The volatility is going to continue to be a major issue here, but overall, I believe that it’s probably better to buy dips until we reach towards the $3.00 level, a play that has worked in both directions for some time.

NATGAS Video 07.08.18

Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets start out the week soft

Gold markets continue to be very negative overall, as we have dropped towards the $1205 level. There is even more support underneath at the $1200 level, and this is an area where it makes sense that we could bounce from. I think longer-term “buy-and-hold” traders will be looking at this level as a potential entry point. I believe that the market continues to be very noisy, but keep in mind that the US dollar has an inverse relationship to gold. It has been strengthening over the last several days, and with the British pound fall in the way it has this has only offered more in the way of pressure on gold as the greenback reigns.

That being said, I think that if you look for support of candles closer to the $1200 level, you might get a nice buying opportunity. If you take the leverage out of the situation, you may be able to take advantage of a longer-term move, but I would be very quick to exit a losing trade, and I wouldn’t put too much money to work in one shot. I believe that this market continues to be very dangerous, but this could be where we turn things around. Otherwise, if we break down below here it’s likely that we go looking towards the $1140 level, and then eventually the $1000 level underneath which is even more supportive and would be even more interesting for longer-term buyers. I think that it’s difficult the short this market until we get below $1200 at this point though.

Gold Prices Video 07.08.18

Gold Price Prediction – Gold Consolidates Just Above Key Support

Gold prices continued to trade sideways, edging lower on Monday, as the dollar gained traction.  This comes despite Friday’s weaker than expected U.S. employment report that disappointed on the headline number coming out at 157K as opposed to the markets estimate of 190K. Traders will now turn their attention to Friday’s U.S. CPI report which is expected to show an up tick to 2.7%.  This coincides with Friday’s hourly earnings report, which shows wage inflation which also increased by 2.7% year over year.  With oil prices on the move higher, headline inflation could continue to move higher during the balance of the summer due to increasing gasoline prices. The Chinese Yuan continued to decline versus the dollar closing near a 1-year low, making gold in Yuan more expensive. This could also continue to weigh on prices of the yellow metal.  Geopolitical risk is also keeping gold buoyed, ahead of sanction on Iran which begin this week.

Gold is Consolidating Just Above Critical Support

Gold prices are poised to test trend line support which is a horizontal trend line that connects the lows in July 2017 to the lows in July 2018 and comes in near 1,204.  A break of this level would generate a quick test of the March 2017 lows at 1,198. Target support after this would be the December 2016 lows at 1,120. Resistance on gold prices is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,219. Prices are oversold and could rebound. The fast stochastic, is printing a reading of 13, which is well below the oversold trigger level of 20 and could foreshadow a correction. The fast stochastic is also generating a crossover buy signal in oversold territory which is generally considered a buy signal. Momentum as reflected by the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is neutral as the index is printing near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation.

Crude Oil Price Update – Overtaking $69.64 Could Spike Price to $70.42 – $70.61

September West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher shortly after the regular session opening. The rally is being driven by an OPEC report that showed lower production than expected from Saudi Arabia in July.

Saudi Arabia pumped around 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, two OPEC sources said on Friday, down about 200,000 bpd from a month earlier.

Traders are also anticipating an announcement from Washington later on Monday on renewed U.S. sanctions against major oil exporter Iran. So called “snapback” sanctions are due to be reinstated at 0401 GMT on Tuesday, according to a U.S. Treasury official.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily September WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $70.43 will change the main trend to up. A move through $66.92 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is $62.99 to $72.98. Its retracement zone at $67.99 to $66.81 is support.

The short-term range is $72.98 to $66.29. Its retracement zone at $69.64 to $70.42 is resistance.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September WTI crude oil futures market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $69.64.

A sustained move under $69.64 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum, we could see a break into the support cluster at $67.99 to $67.92.

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over $69.64 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration into a cluster of levels including a Fibonacci level at $70.42, a main top at $70.43 and a downtrending Gann angle at $70.61.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – August 6, 2018 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures are trading lower shortly before the regular session opening after sellers rejected an earlier attempt to breakout to the upside. The catalyst behind the selling is the stronger U.S. Dollar. The greenback is being treated as a safe-haven asset today due to escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. This is leading to lower foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold.

Comex Gold
Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, we’re going to be watching for a shift in momentum due to Friday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through $1212.50 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $1228.50 will confirm the reversal bottom. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1244.70.

The minor trend is down. It will change to up on a trade through $1237.80. This will also support a shift in momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is $1244.70 to $1212.50. Its 50% level or pivot at $1228.60 is controlling the direction of the gold market.

The main range is $1278.20 to $1212.50. If the trend changes to up then its retracement zone at $1245.40 to $1253.10 will become the primary upside target.


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Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December Comex Gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at $1224.70.

A sustained move under $1224.70 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a drive into last week’s low at $1212.50.

A sustained move over $1224.70 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the pivot at $1228.60.

Overtaking $1228.60 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with potential targets lined up at $1234.70, $1237.80 and $1238.20.

Commodities Daily Forecast – August 6, 2018

Gold

After falling for the most part of the week, gold prices significantly shot higher reaching towards the $1220 level. This area, the market has seen a lot of supply and buyers jumping into the market and if it breaks above the $1225 level in the next few session, then it would continue with its bullish momentum. Pullbacks at this point will continue to offer buying opportunities with $1,200 offering strong support to the market. …Read More

Silver

The silver prices shot higher during the Friday’s session reaching towards the $15.50 level. This level has been a strong resistance and if it breaks above this level, then it could reach towards the $15.65 . As USD being sold off against all the major currencies, the silver prices will continue to benefit in the short term. …Read More

WTI Crude Oil

The crude oil prices had very little movement in the Friday’s session, with mostly sideways. The $70 level is acting as a significant resistance and $67 level underneath is a strong support zone for the market. The market is likely to trade volatile and if it breaks below the $67 level, then next major support will be at $65 level.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas prices exploded higher during the Friday’s session reaching towards the $2.85 level. The market is expected to continue moving higher with a target of $3 level, which is the ceiling of this market. Short-term pullbacks will offer nice buying opportunities, especially near the $2.83 and $2.70 level. Signs of exhaustion will eventually attract sellers back into the market. …Read More

Gold Pares Early Gains As US Dollar Grows Stronger

Gold prices pared early gains and steadied amid a firm U.S. dollar ahead of European market hours. Spot gold XAUUSD was steady at $1,212.05 an ounce, down 0.08% after hitting as high as $1217.85. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were down 0.23% at $1,220.30 an ounce, Gold is still very much being influenced by how the dollar is moving.

The uptick in gold prices was from the market pricing in how the U.S.-China trade war issues actually play out. Gold prices had rebounded on Friday from a 17-month low of $1,204 per ounce as the dollar slipped after data showed U.S. job growth slowed in July. The dollar had also weakened against the yuan on Friday after the Chinese central bank sought to stabilize its currency. Greenback, however, regained footing on Monday and strengthened against major peers.

Chinese Media Blames Trade Tariff As Personal Attack

China proposed retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods on Friday, further escalating a bitter trade conflict after the Trump administration sought to ratchet up pressure for trade concessions by proposing a higher 25-percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. Monday, Chinese state media lambasted U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies in an unusually personal attack and sought to reassure investors worries about China’s economy as growth concerns rattled its financial markets. The intensifying trade spat has been one of the main reasons for a decline in demand for precious metals as the trade issues have also been playing off into a more expensive dollar. The expensive dollar is also affecting the price action of silver. Spot silver XAGUSD is trading at $15.369 down 0.29% an ounce.

Crude oil prices edged lower Friday after China said it will not follow the US’ lead in cutting imports from Iran. The re-imposition of sanctions following the Trump administration’s decision to scrap an Obama-era nuclear disarmament accord begins today.  However Crude oil price rose up in early trading hours on Monday as participants raised bets. WTIUSD is trading at $69.49/b up 0.09% on the day as Saudi crude production registered a surprising dip in July and as American shale drilling appeared to plateau. The global crude market is expected to continue moving on slow but steady uptrend movement on Monday.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Strengthens Over $2.869, Weakens Under $2.831

Natural gas futures moved higher early in the session on Monday before turning lower. Production and weather-induced demand is expected to drive the price action the rest of the session.

At 0403 GMT, September Natural Gas futures settled at $2.849, down $0.004 or -0.14%.

Natural gas futures were driven higher last week following the release of a bullish weekly government storage report. Prices popped higher Thursday after a government report showed a smaller-than-expected storage build, setting the tone for a strong finish for the week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration announced a storage build of 35 Bcf in the week-ended July 27, raising U.S. inventories to 2.308 Tcf. Total stocks are 688 Bcf now below inventories one year ago and 565 Bcf under the five-year historical average.

Short-Term Weather Forecast

According to NatGasWeather.com for August 6 to August 9, “A cool front with showers and thunderstorms over the east-central U.S. will fizzle as it runs into strong upper high pressure building into the East Coast where highs of upper 80s to 90s will be on the increase. There will be cooling across the Northwest into California the next several days as a weather system races through, although still hot over the Southwest with highs of 90s to 110F. Hot high pressure will expand to dominate most of the country thru Tuesday with 90s gaining ground, then easing last next week as weather systems return across the central and eastern U.S.”

Forecast

For weeks, speculators had ignored the low levels of weekly injections and the relatively wide storage deficit, thinking that with production at record levels, the deficit would become a non-factor by the end of October. However, this all seemed to change last Thursday and Friday.

Last week’s rally positively affected the nearby futures contract, which reflects concerns about looming hotter temperatures, and the deferred futures contracts, which means traders are worried about having enough supply at the start of the winter heating season.

Today, the direction of the market will be determined by the temperature forecast for August 14 and beyond and whether production can keep up with demand.

Technically, the direction of the September Natural Gas market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the retracement zone at $2.831 to $2.869.

A sustained move over $2.869 will indicate the speculative buying or short-covering is getting stronger. The inability to overcome $2.869 and a sustained move under $2.831 will signal the return of sellers.