Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 28, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Silver friday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver eased by 489 points dropping to 22.333 as traders booked profits after precious metals and industrial metals climbed this week. Silver prices traded lower by around 1.5 percent taking cues from drop in gold prices and base metals complex along with strength in the DX. Additionally, mixed global market sentiments exerted downside pressure in prices of the white metal. Copper took a major tumble today to trade at 3.239 giving up 24 points after traders worried about bad bank loans in China and a drop in German Ifo data. Copper prices remained worried about the fact that China will be tightening its monetary policies. The prices are on the edge of slipping below $ 7100 per ton on LME. LME three month prices were trading at $7132 per ton, down from $ 7170 per ton on 24 September 2013. The news of Chinese tightening is overriding over the calls that US will continue to keep the stimulus measure of $ 85 billion per month. However, some other reports from Europe pointed dismal data. Germany’s Ifo business climate fell unexpectedly last month. In a report, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research said its index of German business climate fell to 107.4, from 107.7 in the preceding month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 25, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 25

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean GDP (QoQ) 

1.1%

 

1.0% 

 

1.1% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean GDP (YoY) 

3.3%

 

3.2% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo CPI (YoY) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

107.4

 

108.0 

 

107.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Current Assessment 

111.3

 

111.6 

 

111.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Business Expectations 

103.6

 

104.5 

 

104.2 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.8%

 

0.8% 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

 

 

0.5% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

 

 

2.0% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

 

75.0 

 

75.2

   

 silver 1025bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 28

12:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

 

34 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4% 

0.4% 

 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-0.5% 

-1.6% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 28 10:10 Italy

Oct 28 10:30 Germany

Oct 28 11:00 Belgium

Oct 28 18:00 US

Oct 29 01:30 Japan

Oct 29 10:10 Italy

Oct 29 10:10 Norway

Oct 29 15:30 UK

Oct 29 18:00 US

Oct 30 10:10 Italy

Oct 30 10:10 Sweden

Oct 30 10:30 Germany

Oct 30 18:00 US

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – October 25, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures are called lower this morning. Despite the Fed’s tapering delay and a slowly improving global economy, investors have been shying away from the long side of the market because of the uncertainty about the strength of the U.S. economy and the possibility of monetary policy tightening in China. This downside bias is likely to continue today although technically, the market is oversold, making it ripe for a short-covering rally.

This week’s poor U.S. economic data weakened the dollar, making copper prices cheaper for foreign traders, but it failed to increase demand. Today, investors will get the chance to react to the latest durable goods report and Michigan sentiment figures. Because of the wide range of estimates, copper traders could face a serious round of volatility shortly after the release of these reports.

December High Grade Copper
December High Grade Copper

Although the fundamentals may have created a floor for copper, traders don’t seem to be in a hurry to buy it. Overbought conditions and support levels may be attractive to bottom-pickers, but the buying may not be strong enough to change the trend.

Technically, after closing under a potential support angle at 3.2700 on Thursday, copper is straddling another angle at 3.2425 this morning. A failure to hold this angle could trigger a slide to 3.2290.

On the upside, major resistance is at 3.2950. Since the main trend is down, investors are likely to reject a rally into this angle.

Because of oversold conditions, we could see a choppy, two-sided trade today. There is a clear bias to the downside, but a floor may be in because of the friendly fundamentals. 

Gold Up, Copper Down Leaving Silver Stuck In The Middle

Gold Up, Copper Down Leaving Silver Stuck In The Middle
Gold Up, Copper Down Leaving Silver Stuck In The Middle
In a surprise market turn around this week gold continued to climb trading on a high note through Thursday to trade just under 1350.00. In the Asian session this morning traders are booking profits and pushing down prices, gold is trading at 1342.90 down by $7.40. On Thursday, gold rallied to its highest close on the New York Mercantile Exchange since Sept. 19, getting a boost from improved manufacturing data out of China, a massive gold buyer. The overall metals market is mixed this morning as platinum fell $6.30 to $1,449.90 an ounce, while palladium slipped 89 cents to $747 an ounce. High-grade copper for managed to hold steady at $3.27 a pound. Strong Chinese HSBC manufacturing data had little effect on industrial metals, after China reveal a surge in bad debts by local banks which might cause the government to tighten lending conditions. Gold headed for a second weekly advance as weaker-than-forecast U.S. data and concern that growth was hurt by a government shutdown boosted speculation the Federal Reserve will delay a cut in stimulus. Investors await economic data from the U.S. and Germany due later today. U.S. durable goods orders may have risen 2.3 percent last month, after gaining 0.1 percent in August, according to a Bloomberg survey. Germany’s Ifo institute business climate index probably rose this month to the highest since April 2012, according to another survey.

Gold lost 20 percent this year amid speculation the Fed will curb stimulus measures. More Americans than forecast filed jobless claims, data showed yesterday. The 16-day government shutdown that started Oct. 1 probably trimmed 0.25 percentage point from fourth-quarter growth and cost 120,000 jobs this month, according to Jason Furman, President Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser. Traders will focus on the FOMC meeting scheduled for the middle of the coming week although odds are that the Fed will keep everything as is until their December meeting after they access the damage caused by the government shutdown. Fed policy makers unexpectedly refrained from slowing the monthly $85 billion bond purchases last month and economists surveyed by Bloomberg Oct. 17-18 said the central bank probably will delay a reduction in the stimulus until March.

Initial jobless claims decreased by 12,000 to 350,000 in the week ended Oct. 19, the Labor Department said yesterday, compared with 340,000 forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Copper is doing just the opposite of gold which leaves silver stuck in the middle. Silver is trading at 22.663 down 159 points. Copper is poised for a weekly decline amid concern that China is tightening monetary policies to curb inflation, reducing the demand outlook for industrial metals from the biggest consumer.

The contract for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was little changed at $7,182 a metric ton. The price has fallen 0.9 percent this week, set for the first monthly drop in four months. The benchmark money-market rate in China yesterday jumped the most since June as officials’ drained cash from the financial system amid a sign of a recovery in the second-biggest economy. Manufacturing strengthened more than economists estimated this month and inflation rose to the highest level since February.

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Silver thursday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver added almost 19 cents after Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI printed above expectations while Copper ended the day declining after Chinese Investment money slowed leaving the demand for copper uncertain. Copper is trading down 6 pips at 3.261. Copper prices have lost ground on account of profit booking after the US weak jobs report in US enthused confidence in traders last night*LME three month prices were trading at $ 7265 per ton, down $ 8per ton from last night. The setup is similar to the session yesterday, where prices were static before the US markets opening but recovered ground later in the day. An upbeat Chinese manufacturing data released earlier today improved the overall market sentiments. The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for the month of October rose to a seven month high to 50.9, exceeding the expectation of 50.4. However, reports of Chinese central bank moves to tame inflation by tightening the cash condition in the financial system as well as easing manufacturing activity in Euro Zone hurt sentiments. The Euro Zone Flash PMI composite dipped to 51.5 in October from the two year high of 52.2 registered in September. Looking ahead, weekly jobs data and housing data from the US will be under scanner for the day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 24, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 24

01:45

 

NZD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-199M

 

-750M 

 

-1234M 

   

 

05:45

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.9

 

50.5 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

07:00

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:58

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

49.4

 

50.1 

 

49.8 

 

 

 

11:28

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

51.5

 

51.5 

 

51.1 

 

 

 

11:58

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.3

 

51.4 

 

51.1 

 

 

 

14:00

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-4

 

10 

 

 

 

 

16:30

 

USD

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

-39.50B 

 

-39.20B 

 

 

 

16:30

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

2875K 

 

2859K 

 

 

 

18:00

 

USD

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

 

425K 

 

421K

   

 silver 1024bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 25

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

107.9

107.7

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

111.7

111.4

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

104.4

104.2

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

 

0.7%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

 

1.3%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.5%

 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

1.1%

 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

75.2

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Oct 28 10:10 Italy

Oct 28 10:30 Germany

Oct 28 11:00 Belgium

Oct 28 18:00 US

Oct 29 01:30 Japan

Oct 29 10:10 Italy

Oct 29 10:10 Norway

Oct 29 15:30 UK

Oct 29 18:00 US

Oct 30 10:10 Italy

Oct 30 10:10 Sweden

Oct 30 10:30 Germany

Oct 30 18:00 US

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – October 24, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures are called lower this morning. Fundamental and technical factors are both pressuring the market. Fundamentally, investors are looking for today’s release of the latest Flash Manufacturing PMI data to show the economy is sluggish. This report represents the first set of data reflecting the impact of the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate on the economy. Copper traders feel that a weak economy will lead to a drop in demand.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Technically, the market took out all key retracement levels on Wednesday, putting the market in a weak position this morning. These key levels which include both short-term and long-term charts are now new resistance. They include 3.2685, 3.2850, 3.2928 and 3.3169.

The nearest Gann angle resistance is a downtrending Gann angle at 3.3150. A rally into this angle is likely to attract fresh selling pressure. The emphasis, however, is not the upside potential, but where it is headed.

The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 3.2650. A failure to hold it is likely to trigger a further decline into another angle at 3.2400. This price is the last wall of support before the main bottom at 3.2150.

Unless there is a surprise in the PMI report which means a better than expected number, look for downside pressure throughout the session. Traders are looking for a PMI number lower than 52.8. 

Precious Metals & Industrial Metals Trading In The Green

Precious Metals & Industrial Metals Trading In The Green
Precious Metals & Industrial Metals Trading In The Green

Gold is trading in the green this morning holding near a 4 week high at 1336.00 as silver really shines adding 106 points to trade at 22.723 after the release of stronger than expected Chinese manufacturing data. Traders are beginning to pay very close attention to the Federal Reserve with the FOMC meeting next week. Gold has often tracked shifting expectations as to whether the US central bank would start reining in nearly five years of super-easy dollars, a measure which had sparked fears of inflation and encouraged investors to buy the precious metal. Prices sank to a near three-year low around $1,180 in late June on worries over the Fed’s plan to wind down the stimulus. Odds makers have put the possibility of tapering at this meeting close to 0, with poor jobs data and the government shutdown effects remaining unknown. The prospect of the Fed staying the course on its easy-money policies through year’s end sent the Dow Jones to a one-month high, market participants said. The blue-chip index gained 75.46 points, or 0.49%, to 15467.66 and is once again nearing record territory, and the S&P 500 finished at a fresh record close, up 10.01 points, or 0.57%, at 1754.67. Treasury yields sank to a three-month low on the report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which moves in the opposite direction of the price, fell to 2.512%.

HSBC’s China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index showed activity in the nation’s manufacturing sector expanded more than expected in October, rising to a seven-month high. The initial October reading for China’s manufacturing activity came out at 50.9, compared with a final reading of 50.2 in September. The score was a seven-month high; above the 50 mark that separates expansion and contraction in factory activity. Copper made an amazing turnaround this morning after the data release adding 12 points to trade at 3.278 after suffering a huge drop on Wednesday. Copper futures sank 2% as concerns about the stability of China’s financial system sparked worries over the country’s future demand for copper. China’s short-term interest rates jumped to levels not seen since July as some companies tapped money markets to fund deadline tax payments and as worries spread about bad debts in the banking system, analysts at Scotiabank said in a note.

Adding to the tension, while China’s central bank refrained from removing liquidity from the domestic money market on Tuesday, authorities also avoided pumping liquidity into the system in recent days. The lack of open market activity is a sign of concern that tighter liquidity will hamper growth in the world’s second-largest economy, analysts said. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for about 40% of global copper demand, and fears of slower economic growth there contributed to a 16% drop in copper prices during the first half of 2013.

The weaker US dollar is also helping the metals markets to trade on a positive note this morning. Palladium rose by 1.50 to trade at 747.00 while Platinum added 9.30 to reach 1443.60.

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver followed gold down today giving up 170 points to trade well into the 22 range at 22.62 as the metals market starts to look for ahead to the HSBC PMI data from China due early in the morning. Copper eased by 49 pips to trade at 3.287. Base metals prices were pared back from yesterday’s multi-week highs during Wednesday’s early trading session by a lack of technical follow-through buying, profit-taking, as well as concerns over tighter monetary policy in China. Tuesday’s data sparked an abortive metals rally after the delayed non-farm employment change for September came in under expectations at 148,000 jobs added against the expected 182,000.

With metal prices now back in their long-established neutral ranges, the markets look set for yet more sideways trading and reduced volatility, traders said. “So far this morning we are seeing some consolidation, but that is not so surprising given the moves yesterday, but what is more worrying in that China did not follow suit. The Aussie (dollar) also turning back from earlier strength also suggests it is nervous about the potential tighter monetary policy in China,” said FastMarkets analyst William Adams.

Copper prices were last at $7,266 per ton, down $67 on the previous day’s close, while volumes have seen around 9,900 lots change hands on Select so far.

Inventories were down 2,950 tons, representing a 35th day of consecutive decreases, now at 489,400 tons. Meanwhile cancellations jumped a net 21,350 tons to 274,200 tons – the strongest since September 17 – after a 23,800-ton increase in New Orleans – total stocks here now stand at 73,725 tons.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 23, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 23

 

AUD

 

 

CPI (QoQ) 

1.2%

 

0.8% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

1.8% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

43.0K

 

39.4K 

 

38.8K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

 

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

BoC Monetary Policy Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 silver 1023bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 24

02:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

50.2

 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

49.8

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

51.6

51.1

 

08:58

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

51.4

51.1

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

 

9

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales 

425K

421K

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales (MoM) 

 

7.9%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 24 11:00 Norway

Oct 24 15:00 US

Oct 24 15:30 Italy

Oct 24 17:00 US

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – October 23, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures are called lower this morning after failing to follow-through to the upside. On Tuesday, the market surged to the upside after the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report came out weaker-than-expected. Although this means the economy is still sluggish and demand may be low for copper, traders decided to drive the market higher because of the volatile drop in the dollar.

Technically, after straddling a major retracement zone at 3.2928 to 3.3169, the market finally broke out to the upside, triggering a drive through a downtrending Gann angle at 3.3437. The market failed to close above this angle, suggesting that the selling may be greater than the buying at current price levels.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

This morning, the market is called lower after investors shed risky assets overnight. The news that major Chinese banks wrote off about $3.7 billion in bad debt for the first six months of the year was the catalyst behind the sell-off. In addition, Chinese money rates spiked higher after the central bank refused to inject cash into the markets to provide liquidity. These actions spooked traders who decided holding on to speculative long positions was not worth the risk.

The overnight action suggests the market is headed back toward the major retracement zone at 3.3169 to 3.2928. A failure to hold the uptrending Gann angle at 3.3150 could attract further selling pressure, fueling a pull-back into the retracement zone at 3.2850 to 3.2686.

The early action today suggests that Tuesday’s rally was just a reaction to the jobs data news. Buy stops and short-covering after the report most likely triggered the move. Until there is real demand and sustained buying power, it looks as if the market is likely to remain range bound over the near-term. In general, negative news out of China tends to drive copper prices lower since it uses about 40% of the world’s copper supply. 

Gold – Silver & Copper Rally After Lackluster US Jobs Data

Gold - Silver & Copper Rally After Lackluster US Jobs Data
Gold - Silver & Copper Rally After Lackluster US Jobs Data
Gold and silver are trading in the red this morning after a strong gain on Tuesday after the release of a dismal jobs report in the US. Gold ended the day at 1342 and silver was up at 22.79. Precious metals responded to the weak US dollar and hopes of continued Federal Reserve asset purchases. Gold is down just 3.40 in this morning’s trade as investor’s book profits on the strong climb yesterday. The US nonfarm Employment Change declined by 45,000 to 148,000 in September as against a rise of 193,000 in August. Unemployment Rate fell to 7.2 percent in September from rise of 7.3 percent a month ago. Average Hourly Earnings were at 0.1 percent in last month as compared to 0.3 percent in August. Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases slipped to $8.9 billion in August with respect to $31 billion in prior month.

 The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.6 percent yesterday on the back of decline in US non-farm employment data. This factor led to expectations of delay in QE tapering program by the Federal Reserve which exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, rise in risk appetite in market sentiments led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The labor market scenario in US is still above the Fed’s target of 6.5 percent and will continue with its loose monetary policy stance which acted as a negative factor. The DX touched an intra-day low of 79.24 and closed at 79.29 on Tuesday. The dollar index continues to ease this morning down by 9 points to trade at 79.21.

Speculators can expert precious metals to trade on a higher note on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, a rise in SPDR Gold holdings of 0.8 percent in yesterday’s trade will support an upside in prices. It is the first time in recent days that money managers and funds have increased their holding in precious metals.

Copper rose on Tuesday as the dollar fell and after the first U.S. jobs report in nearly two months suggested the economy had lost steam, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay a decision to taper its bond-buying program. Copper eased a bit to correct by 27 points to trade at 3.309. The dollar fell across the board after the disappointing jobs data. This helped copper because a weaker U.S. currency makes it less expensive for foreign investors to buy dollar-priced commodities, thus supporting prices. Copper prices are expected to move down as rising home prices in China is likely to prompt the central bank to control inflation and curb credit supply, which can hurt growth and dampen the demand for industrial metals. Japan’s output of rolled copper product rose to 68,037 tons in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 4.5 percent from a year earlier, preliminary data showed on Wednesday.

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 22.513 up by 235 pips today taking cues from gold which climbed steadily after the disappointing nonfarm payroll release. Copper gained 35 points on the weak US dollar and strong comments from Chinese leaders in regards to growth in China. Upbeat economic figures from Asia and Europe, base metals are trading bullish. Nickel, Lead and Aluminum are the top gainers. Elsewhere, weighed by profit booking in index heavyweights. Copper prices traded on a flat note today on the back of expectations that the QE taper by the US Federal Reserve might be delayed thereby increasing demand of the red metal. Also, decline in inventories by 0.5 percent to 492,350 tons supported an upside in price of the metal. The US dollar tumbled after the nonfarm payroll release helping metals to climb on the weak dollar.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 22, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 22

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-2.4%

 

 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Unemployment Rate 

13.00%

 

13.00% 

 

13.00% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

148K

 

180K 

 

193K 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.2%

 

7.3% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.5 

 

34.5 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

126K

 

180K 

 

161K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

 

30.9B 

 

31.1B 

 

 

silver  1022bnsnla 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 23

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

 

15:00

CAD

Interest Rate Decision 

 

1.00%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 23 09:30 Germany

Oct 23 14:30 Sweden

Oct 23 15:30 Italy

Oct 24 11:00 Norway

Oct 24 15:00 US

Oct 24 15:30 Italy

Oct 24 17:00 US

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – October 22, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures continued to trade inside the major retracement zone at 3.2928 to 3.3169 overnight. Traders are still uncertain about which way to take the market due to the lack of information about the U.S. economy.

Investors will get some information about the state of the economy from today’s September U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, but this may not be enough to move the market since they still want to know the effect the government shutdown had on the economy.

Today’s jobs data is expected to show the economy added 180,000 new jobs in September. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.3%. The release of the report is expected to cause some volatility but the direction and the size of the move will be determined by the strength or weakness of the report and the size of the deviation from the estimate.

A weaker-than-expected jobs report should drive the dollar lower, but this may not translate into a buy for copper because it will also indicate a weak economy which would be bad for demand. A better-than-expected report could support the dollar, but copper prices may still fall because it will it more expensive for foreign traders. Until the true supply/demand outlook for copper is known, it is possible that this market will continue to drift sideways while remaining range bound between 3.3950 and 3.1905.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Technically, the first sign of strength will be a move through the Fibonacci level at 3.3169. This could lead to a test of a downtrending angle at 3.3450. A sustained move through the 50% level at 3.2928 will be a sign of weakness. Additionally, a move through this level will also mean that the uptrending Gann angle support at 3.2950 has failed.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with 3.2720 to 3.2585 the first target, followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 3.2550.

Although strong volatility is expected after the release of the report, it may not reveal enough information to move copper out of its range. 

Palladium Soars On Chinese Import Demand While Gold Remains Flat

Palladium Soars On Chinese Import Demand While Gold Remains Flat
Palladium Soars On Chinese Import Demand While Gold Remains Flat
Global focus will return to the US later today, as the US begins to release delayed data due to the budget crisis lasting from October 1, 2013. The 16 closure stopped the flow of data from most government agencies. US lawmakers managed to fund the government until early 2014 allowing agencies to reopen. Data will begin to flow today, with the US releasing the much watched nonfarm payroll report.  Gold has held steady as investors await US employment data, while palladium has rallied to an eight-week high amid hopes of stronger demand from China. Gold slumped 22 percent this year on expectations the Fed will slow its $85 billion-a-month of bond buying as the economy improves. Fed policy makers, who meet again Oct. 29-30 after unexpectedly maintaining stimulus at the last meeting, will make the first cut to buying in March, according to the median estimate of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg Oct. 17-18. A poll last month forecast the first reduction in December.

Gold on Monday rose $US1.20 or 0.1 per cent, to settle at $1,315.80 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold gave back yesterday gains to trade at 1314.80 in the Asian session. Many investors look to the employment gauge as a prognosticator of future monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve has said a stronger labour market is a key ingredient for winding down the central bank’s stimulus program. The program has buoyed gold prices by keeping interest rates low and burnishing the allure of zero-yielding assets such as precious metals. The weight of gold sales in China totaled 832 tons last year, the strong growth pushed greatly by sales of gold bars, sales of which rose 87 percent to nearly 279 tons. Jewelry sales rose 44 percent to 383.86 tons. At the same time, industrial use of gold fell 1.6 percent.

Palladium rose $US9.60, or 1.3 per cent, to settle at $US750.25 a troy ounce on the Nymex. This was the highest settlement since August 23. China, the world’s largest car market, stepped up its imports of palladium by 25 per cent in September from a year earlier to 62,500 ounces, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Palladium is widely used in car exhaust filters. Still, with prices hovering near $US750 a troy ounce, palladium futures are likely to face pressure as Russia, the world’s largest producer of the metal, steps up sales of its government stockpile.

Copper climbed on the LME after imports of refined metal into China reached a 19-month high, indicating continued demand in the world’s biggest consumer. Shipments jumped 32 percent from August to 347,305 metric tons last month, customs data showed today. That was the highest level since February 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Copper also gained on expectations the Federal Reserve will delay slowing economic stimulus in the U.S., the second-largest consumer of the metal. Copper is trading at 3.30 in the Asian session this morning. Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME fell for a 33rd straight session to 494,850 tons on a drop in Malaysia’s Johor. Orders to remove the metal from warehouses climbed 2.4 percent, the most since June, to 255,750 tons on a gain in New Orleans

 

 

 

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 22.14 up by 22 cents today rising for the third straight session by on increased off take by industrial units and coin makers. Silver prices increased by 0.18 percent on Friday’s trading session on the back of weakness in Dollar Index coupled with upbeat global market sentiments. Further, expectations among the investors that the US Federal Reserve may continue with its loose monetary policy supported prices to trade in green. Additionally, strong economic data from China acted as a positive factor for the prices. Copper added 8 pips reversing earlier decreases. Copper decreased by 0.12 percent. Weak Dollar Index coupled with rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Further, strong economic data from China and expectation of US Federal Reserve to continue with its loose monetary policy supported prices. Base Metals on LME also traded on mixed note. Weak Dollar Index coupled with rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Further, strong economic data from China and expectation of US Federal Reserve to continue with its loose monetary policy supported prices as the prospect of rise in demand for Industrial metal increased.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 21, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 21

 

JPY

 

 

Adjusted Trade Balance 

-1.09T

 

-1.06T 

 

-0.82T 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-932B

 

-920B 

 

-960B 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish GDP (QoQ) 

0.8%

 

 

 

0.8% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

 

 

1.0% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

 

 

5.32M 

 

5.48M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales (MoM) 

 

 

-2.5% 

 

1.7% 

   

 silver 1021bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 22 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

1.0%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

180K

169K

 

13:30

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.5

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

180K

152K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 22 00:30 Japan

Oct 22 08:30 Spain

Oct 23 09:30 Germany

Oct 23 14:30 Sweden

Oct 23 15:30 Italy

Oct 24 11:00 Norway

Oct 24 15:00 US

Oct 24 15:30 Italy

Oct 24 17:00 US

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – October 21, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures are expected to continue to straddle the major retracement zone at 3.2928 to 3.3269. Investors are still looking for clarity so they can attack this market with conviction. At this time, there is too much uncertainty and the supply/demand situation is unclear.

Tomorrow’s delayed release of the September U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report could move the market, but this is only likely if the actual number substantially misses the pre-report guesses. Even so, since the sharp break in the U.S. did not trigger a rally, it’ll be hard to get long this market based on one economic report. Traders say the U.S. economy added 180,000 new jobs in September. The unemployment rate remained at 7.3%, however.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Holding inside the retracement zone at 3.2928 to 3.3169, indicates uncertainty, but a sustained move over the upper or Fibonacci level could create enough upside momentum to challenge a downtrending angle at 3.3463.

A break below another angle at 3.2975 will be a sign of weakness, but a sustained move through the 50% level at 3.2928 could trigger the start of another acceleration to the downside. An uptrending Gann angle at 3.2850 will be the first target, followed by another angle at 3.2500.

The short-term range is 3.2150 to 3.3290. If sellers regain control of this market then look for an eventual break into the retracement zone at 3.2720 to 3.2585.

All indications this morning point toward another round of sideways trading. Investors are likely to hold this market in a range until they get clarity. This clarity may come from U.S. or China data. Bullish investors may be waiting for a series of good economic data to prove that the U.S. economy hasn’t been derailed by the government shutdown. Once investors can see proof that the recovery is still on track, they may be comfortable trading the long side in an aggressive manner. 

Are Oil Speculators Supporting High Prices ?

Are Oil Speculators Supporting High Prices ?
Are Oil Speculators Supporting High Prices ?

Crude oil for all intense and purpose should be trading below $100 but it seems that speculators are keeping the prices at a higher level. Geopolitical issues around the globe seem to be at a reduced level, a lull before the storm, but in this lull there is no support for stress to push up prices. Crude oil is trading at 101.11 almost flat this morning. The diplomatic efforts between the West and Iran seem to be moving steadily at a hastened pace which might see an easing of embargo terms on the oil producing nation. Crude oil prices moved higher on Friday as a rebound in Chinese economic growth and higher than expected industrial production growth improved the demand prospects from China and supported oil prices. Chinese President Xi’s plans to shift the economy away from a growth-at-any-cost strategy means that China’s GDP rise over the coming year will depend as much on political decisions as on economic conditions at home and abroad. After China said Friday that its third quarter GDP growth accelerated to 7.8%, year over year, from 7.5% in the prior quarter, Chinese officials said the country would have trouble sustaining the faster pace. Mr. Xi earlier this month became the latest and most senior official to hint that China would lower its growth target for 2014 to 7% from this year’s 7.5%. The Communist Party chief told a meeting of regional leaders that the lower growth rate is sufficient to double per-capita income between 2010 and 2020, a long-stated goal. This re-positioning should also have an effect on the demand from the number one user of oil.

US crude oil demand rose by 2.7% YOY for the quarter ended September while total oil demand has increased by 1.7%, according to API. Saudi Arabia increased its oil exports by 325,000 bpd in August compared to 7.795 million bpd in July.  On the other hand Chinese data is much lower than expected at the beginning of the year, with GDP downgraded from 8.3% when crude oil was trading in the low 90’s so this tick up should not support the current prices and production around the globe should be producing a world oil glut.  The EIA will release crude stockpile data today that was delayed last week because of the government shutdown. Traders can expect Crude oil prices to go up during the day; however, higher inventories could push prices down later, keeping it in a range. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 1.6 percent on the week on the back of rising trend in API crude oil inventories. Further, crude oil inventories have gained around 14.9 million barrels in last three weeks which is at the highest level since July exerting downside pressure on prices. Additionally, refinery utilization rate has decreased to 86 percent which at least point since April coupled with decline in US manufacturing activity which acted as a negative factor.  Brent oil is trading at 109.97 down 11 pips after the reports on increased production from the Saudi’s. The gap between Brent and WTI oil remained nearly unchanged last week as it ranged between $8.63 and $10.30. During the week, the premium slipped by $0.13 per barrel. 

What Is In The Future For Gold Prices ?

What Is In The Future For Gold Prices ?
What Is In The Future For Gold Prices ?
A big question for the future is how and when central banks around the world unwind their financial stimulus. ‪How that is handled could determine when stocks next face a bear market, most commonly defined as a 20% decline from a high and gold could tumble the same. While traders optimistic about the immediate future due to the US government shutdown and lackluster data of late the question is now when, not why or how. England maybe the first nation to being increasing interest rates or reducing stimulus, but a global concerted effort needs to get underway so that it does not collapse the global recovery. Gold of late has been steadily gaining now that the US debt ceiling and budget crisis have been pushed into 2014 and traders can deal with the here and now. The next now facing gold speculators is the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of the month. The prices of gold rallied during last week. These recent events may have contributed to the rally of gold and silver. These latest developments may have closed the door on the FOMC tapering the bond purchase program anytime soon. Here is a short outlook for October 21st to October 25th including: U.S non-farm payroll report, EU monetary developments, German Ifo business climate, U.S home sales reports, BOC rate decision, China and EU’s manufacturing PMI flash updates, and U.S. jobless claims. Last week, the price of gold grew by 3.64%. The average price reached $1,293.7 which was 0.81% below the previous week’s average. Gold ended the week at $1,314.30. The price of silver increased by 3.07%. Gold is trading this morning at 1318.60 up by $4 in the Asian session while silver is up 210 points at 22.123.

Gold prices fell on Friday due to profit booking and investment sentiment continued to remain weak with holdings in SPDR Gold Trust declining constantly. However, hopes that Fed may postpone the wind down of its stimulus program at least till March boosted gold’s inflation hedge appeal and limited the downside in prices. India’s gold jewelry exports rose in September by 16.5% as imports have resumed, easing supply pressures. Gold prices can move up today due to a weaker dollar and expectations of continued loose monetary policy by Fed in the near future. However, upside could be limited as investors would wait for US employment data due tomorrow.

Base metals traded lower yesterday taking cues from decline in US Philly Fed manufacturing index. Further, mixed LME inventories data also exerted downside pressure on prices of base metals.  Also, the US government avoiding default by reaching a debt ceiling agreement cushioned sharp fall in prices. Copper climbed by 3 points this morning to trade at 3.292 while the US dollar gained also. The gain in copper prices is a correction from its decline on Thursday and Friday. Copper prices declined by 0.4 percent on Thursday taking cues from fall in manufacturing activity in the US. However, sharp downside was restricted on the back of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.5 percent to 500,325 tons.

Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 21-25, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 21-25, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 21-25, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver for December delivery rose 0.8 percent to $21.365 an ounce. The metal has tumbled 29 percent this year. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for January delivery increased 1.1 percent to $1,398.20 an ounce. Palladium futures for December delivery climbed 1 percent to $713.55 an ounce. Copper  rose after stronger economic growth bolstered the outlook for demand in China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal. In the three months ended Sept. 30, gross domestic product expanded 7.8 percent from a year earlier, China’s statistics bureau said today. Expansion accelerated from 7.5 percent in the prior period, the first increase in three quarters. Copper also rose on speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its monetary stimulus after a stalemate over U.S. fiscal policy shut the government for 16 days, slowing the economy.

“China growth numbers are very supportive,” David Meger, the director of metal trading at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The Fed maintaining the pace of the stimulus is also helping copper.” Copper futures for December delivery advanced 0.1 percent to close at $3.299 a pound at 1:05 p.m. on the Comex in New York. The price, up 0.9 percent this week, has dropped 9.7 percent in 2013. Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange fell for the 32nd straight session to 497,500 metric tons, the lowest since March 7.  

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 18, 2013

21.918

21.825

22.040

21.737

0.46%

Oct 17, 2013

21.818

21.340

22.190

21.105

2.25%

Oct 16, 2013

21.337

21.180

21.432

21.130

0.77%

Oct 15, 2013

21.173

21.295

21.517

20.505

-0.60%

Oct 14, 2013

21.300

21.325

21.680

21.115

-0.14%

 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 44.188 on Aug 22, 2011

Average: 31.108 over this period.

Lowest: 18.183 on Jun 28, 2013

 METALS 1019W

Major Economic Events for the week of October 14-18 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 14

02:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

3.1%

2.9%

2.6%

 

02:30

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-1.3%

-1.4%

-1.6%

 

02:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.8%

0.5%

0.5%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.0%

0.8%

-1.0%

 Oct. 15

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.6%

2.7%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-1.2%

-0.4%

-0.7%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.3%

0.4%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

52.8

49.6

49.6

 

10:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

59.1

59.4

58.6

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Current Conditions 

29.7

31.3

30.6

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

1.52

7.00

6.29

 Oct. 16

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

0.7%

1.0%

1.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

-41.7K

-25.0K

-41.6K

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.0%

1.0%

1.1%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

0.5%

0.1%

Oct. 17 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6%

0.4%

-0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.2%

2.1%

2.1%

 

09:30

GBP

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

0.3%

-0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

Core Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.8%

2.1%

2.3%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

358K

335K

373K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

2859K

2915K

2902K

 

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

19.8

15.0

22.3

Oct. 18

03:00

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.2%

20.3%

20.3%

 

03:00

CNY

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.8%

7.8%

7.5%

 

03:00

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

10.2%

10.1%

10.4%

 

03:00

CNY

Chinese GDP (QoQ) 

2.2%

1.9%

1.7%

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 21

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

5.37M

5.48M

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) 

-1.6%

1.7%

Oct. 22 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

180K

169K

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.5

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

180K

152K

 Oct. 23

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

Oct. 24

02:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

50.2

 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

49.8

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

51.6

51.1

 

08:58

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

51.4

51.1

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

 

9

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales 

425K

421K

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales (MoM) 

 

7.9%

 Oct. 25

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

107.9

107.7

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

111.7

111.4

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

104.4

104.2

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

 

0.7%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

 

1.3%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.5%

 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

1.1%

 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

75.2

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 21, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 21, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 21, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 21.845 down 10 cents today far exceeding the drop in gold. Industrial metals remain in the red with copper trading at 3.312 up by 15 pips after Chinese data supported the metals markets. There is a huge contrast between copper and the overall metals group. Most other metals are trading down today. Platinum’s premium over gold has risen to its highest since mid-September, at nearly $115 an ounce.  A senior member of South Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) was shot dead overnight in the restive platinum belt town of Marikana, a union spokesman said on Friday. Number one platinum miner Anglo American Platinum said on Friday it was sticking to its full-year production target of 2.3 million ounces despite a two-week strike over job cuts at its South African mines.

China’s economy grew in line with expectations during the third quarter despite a slowdown seen in individual data corresponding to the month of September. Gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth settled in line at 7.8%, accelerating from the second quarter’s 7.5% rise. On a monthly basis, GDP rose 2.2%, from the prior 1.7%. That number beat the consensus estimate of 1.9% growth. Nevertheless, some September data published separately on Friday was a cause for concern. Specifically, industrial production rose 10.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, moving down from August’s reading of 10.4%. However, the figure did come out slightly higher the 10.1% consensus estimate.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 18, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 18

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.2%

 

20.3% 

 

20.3% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.8%

 

7.8% 

 

7.5% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

10.2%

 

10.1% 

 

10.4% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese GDP (QoQ) 

2.2%

 

1.9% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Member Stein Speaks 

 

 

 

 

     

 silver 1018bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 21

07:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) 

 

-0.1% 

 

07:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) 

 

-0.5% 

 

13:30

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

 

1.5% 

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

5.37M 

5.48M 

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) 

-1.6% 

1.7% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 21 09:00 Slovakia

Oct 22 00:30 Japan

Oct 22 08:30 Spain

Oct 23 09:30 Germany

Oct 23 14:30 Sweden

Oct 23 15:30 Italy

Oct 24 11:00 Norway

Oct 24 15:00 US

Oct 24 15:30 Italy

Oct 24 17:00 US

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – October 18, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures traders continue to be confused about how to play this market, leading to a choppy, two-sided trade. On one hand, bullish investors cite the weaker U.S. Dollar as the main reason to expect greater foreign demand. On the other hand, a slowdown in the U.S. economy could put a dent in short-term demand.

The main range is 3.3950 to 3.1905 with a major retracement zone at 3.2928 to 3.3169. Copper has been straddling this zone for several weeks, indicating investor indecision. Traders are looking for clarity from China and the U.S. as far as the demand picture is concerned. The U.S. picture is most likely skewed because of the recent government shutdown, but investors may get some clarity next week since the U.S. is set to begin releasing key economic data that was postponed during the shutdown.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

If anything comes out of this sideways action, it will be volatility. Traders aren’t two concerned about the direction of the market, they just want movement. Until copper can pull away from the major retracement zone, continue to look for a sideways trade.

The first sign of strength will be a sustained move over the 61.8% level at 3.3169. A move with conviction through the 50% level at 3.2928 will most likely attract fresh selling pressure. 

Gold – Silver – Copper Mixed After Chinese GDP & Retails Sales

Gold - Silver - Copper Mixed After Chinese GDP & Retails Sales
Gold - Silver - Copper Mixed After Chinese GDP & Retails Sales
Gold eased on Friday morning as traders booked profits from Thursdays rally. Gold climbed close to $40 to trade at 1323 after the US financial drama ended with lawmakers passing a temporary measure to reopen the government and to increase the debt ceiling until early 2014. Once again kicking the can down the road, but traders moved forward and on to the next news and data. Many investors fear that lawmakers have set the stage for another standoff in the months to come as the deal reached earlier this week only lasts till early next year. Despite the end of the US Fiscal impasse, commodities across the globe are witnessing a blended action with a gloomy mood as markets had already factored in the events in advance. Earlier, lawmakers of the world’s largest economy reached a successful agreement to reopen the government for avoiding a sovereign debt catastrophe by increasing the debt ceiling limit just a few hours before the deadline.

The Federal Reserve will likely defer any decision to trim its massive bond buys until at least December, two top Fed officials suggested. Economists said the tapering could be delayed until early 2014 as the U.S. recovers from the impact of the government shutdown. Rumors that the FOMC might actually increase stimulus a bit to help jump start the economy have slowly grown helping to increase demand for gold in the near term.  Silver also recovered in yesterday’s trade but not as strongly as gold unable to break above 22 and giving up 169 points this morning to trade at 21778.

The World Gold Council reported that demand for jewelry, bars and coins in India, Greater China, Indonesia and Vietnam increased to about 60 percent of the global total compared with 35 percent in 2004. Gold is heading for its first annual loss since 2000 as the U.S. recovers and the Federal Reserve weighs tapering stimulus, the slump spurred increased demand among coin and jewelry buyers across Asia. Since 2008, demand for gold in India more than doubled, while consumption in China rose almost 350 percent. The two countries are the largest buyers. Gold demand should keep increasing as inflation worries grow on continued stimulus

Industrial metals prices slipped yesterday from a two-week high, despite a last-minute deal to avert a default on U.S. debt, as investors remained cautious ahead of delayed U.S. data that could show damage from the government’s two-week shutdown. Copper is trading at 3.30 giving up 6 points this morning after its steady climb yesterday.  Chinese data is rather mixed this morning with Industrial Production and GDP meeting expectations as GDP printed as 7.8% easing traders worries but retail sales missed forecast printing slightly below at 13.2.