Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 23.133 recovering some of yesterday’s losses to trade at 23.133, copper climbed also to trade at 3.287. Other precious metals such as platinum gained slightly reaching 1477.65 along with palladium which gained over 1% to trade at 700.40. Silver prices decreased by 3.04 percent in Yesterday’s trading session on the back of decline in Spot gold prices coupled with downside in the base metal packs. Further, expectation among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying program soon added downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on the back of strong economic data from china, weakness in DX along with rise in risk appetite in the global markets.

Silver prices should trade on the negative note on the back of expectation among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying programme soon. Further, expectation of weak economic data from UK may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, mixed global market sentiments may keep prices under pressure. However, weakness in DX may cushion sharp downside in the prices.

Base Metals on LME traded on negative note on the expectations among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying program soon. However, strong economic data from China along with the rise in risk appetite in the global markets cushioned sharp fall in the prices. LME Copper decreased by 0.43 percent

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 11, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 11

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

15.2

 

7.2 

 

5.0 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

CGPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

4.70%

 

 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

 

1.7% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.1%

 

1.2% 

 

2.2% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-32.6K

 

-22.0K 

 

-36.3K 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

2.060%

 

 

 

1.800% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Portuguese CPI (YoY) 

0.2%

 

0.6% 

 

0.8% 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Current Account (EUR) 

-178.00

 

-11.00 

 

574.00

   

 silver 0911bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 12

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

-0.3%

 

08:00

EUR

Spanish CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

1.8%

 

09:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.5%

-2.1%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.1%

0.7%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.1%

0.3%

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.4%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

328K

323K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

2960K

2951K

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-152.0B

-97.6B

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 UK

Sep 12 15:00 US

Sep 12 15:30 Italy

Sep 12 17:00 US

Sep 13 10:00 Belgium

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 11, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures are called a little better. The main trend is down on the daily chart, but the current close has the market in a position to rally further today. The main range is 3.3950 to 3.2200. The retracement zone of this range is 3.3075 to 3.3282. This is the next major upside target.

Standing in the way of a rally into this zone is a downtrending Gann angle from the 3.3950 top. This angle which stopped the rally on Tuesday is at 3.2850. A breakout through this angle could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

The main support is the 50% level at 3.2243 and the main bottom at 3.2200. Minor support is at 3.2595.

Fundamentally, traders didn’t react very well to the bullish economic news from China on Tuesday. This could be a sign that investors are more focused on the Fed’s plan to tapering its monetary stimulus. Since this action should drive up interest rates and the U.S. Dollar, traders are being a little tentative to buy at current levels because of they anticipate a drop in demand from foreign investors.

Gold Traders Watch The FOMC And Look Forward To US Debt Ceiling

Gold Traders Watch The FOMC And Look Forward To US Debt Ceiling
Gold Traders Watch The FOMC And Look Forward To US Debt Ceiling
Wall Street climbed, extending the longest winning streak for the S&P’s 500 Index since July, as data showed China’s economy is improving amid signs of easing tensions over Syria. Gold continued to tumble as global tensions eased after President Obama called for a pause on authorizing a military strike on Syria, easing concern that a conflict will disrupt Middle East. Gold is trading at 1366.80 tumbling from a weekly high just under the 1400 price level. Gold swung between gains and losses, touching the lowest price in three weeks, after U.S. President Barack Obama asked Congress to delay a vote on military action against Syria, diminishing haven demand. Gold has retreated from a three-month high at the end of August as political tension in the Middle East eased. Obama has asked Congress to postpone a vote on military action while he pursues a diplomatic solution for Syria in light of Russia’s proposal for international control of the regime’s chemical weapons, he said in an address to the nation yesterday. The U.S. said Syria’s government used the weapons last month against civilians and had threatened a punitive strike in response.

With Syria moving off the front page traders are once again focusing on next week’s FOMC meeting. Traders are keenly watching US data for signs of what to expect from the Fed. Job openings in the U.S. fell in July to the lowest level in six months, signaling uneven progress in employment. The number of positions waiting to be filled declined by 180,000 to 3.69 mn, from a revised 3.87 mn the prior month that was weaker than initially reported. Gold has lost 19 percent this year amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will pare its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program as the economy improves. The Fed will taper asset purchases by $10 billion at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, according to a Sept. 6 Bloomberg survey, even after data that day showed U.S. employers added fewer jobs than estimated in August.

Gold prices could rise if the Federal Open Market Committee does not trim its bond-buying program as much as market consensus expects, says B of A Merrill Lynch Global Research, according to kitco.com. The firm says expectations are that the Fed will taper its asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, by $10 billion to $15 billion. That view is priced into the market. “If the Fed is more dovish than that, i.e., tapers by less or delays tapering entirely, gold prices could rally in the short term. Yet, gains will in our view be limited, partially because real rates should continue trend higher in the coming quarters,” they say.

Traders are also closely watching the debt ceiling debate in the US which has been postponed several times since the “fiscal cliff” debates earlier in the year. The US could default on its obligations as early as Oct. 18 if Washington fails to agree on legislation to raise the government’s borrowing cap, a new study predicted on yesterday. The Bipartisan Policy Center analysis says the default date would come no later than Nov. 5 and that the govt would quickly fall behind on its payments, including Social Security benefits and military pensions. This could drive uncertainty back into the market and push gold prices upwards.

Silver is trading at 23.178 gaining 16 cents correcting its major tumble this week as Chinese data continues to support the metals pack. Copper is trading in the green at 3.279, while platinum gained over $12 to trade at 1486.15 and palladium added almost $6.00 to trade above the $700 price level. 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 10, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures are called lower this morning. The weakness comes as a surprise since overnight China released stronger-than-expected industrial and retail sales reports. Industrial production rose 10.4%, up from July’s 9.7% and higher than the 9.9% forecast. Retail sales increased by 13.4% compared to August 2012. Pre-report estimates called for a steady 13.2% rate.

Renewed talk of Fed tapering by the end of the month may be exerting the downside pressure although the U.S. Dollar isn’t reacting much. Typically, a weak U.S. Dollar is supportive for the dollar-denominated copper market.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Technically, the market stopped at 3.2990 on Monday. This was slightly below a downtrending Gann angle and a 50% level. The angle comes in today at 3.2950. The 50% level is at 3.3075. Both combine to form solid resistance today.

The short-term range is 3.2200 to 3.2990, making the retracement zone at 3.2595 to 3.2502 a key support area today. Uptrending Gann angle support is at 3.2500, followed by 3.2350.

The inability to rally overnight from the bullish Chinese economic data is an indication the selling is greater than the buying. The key area to watch is a support cluster at 3.2350 to 3.2200. Early downside momentum appears to be targeting this area. A break through it could trigger an acceleration to the downside. 

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

silver tuesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver fell by 48 cents as precious metals lost their safe have appeal. Silver is trading at 23.233 while Copper gained 5 points after strong data from China supported industrial metals. Copper is trading at 3.283. Copper fell for the first time in three days yesterday on concerns that the conflict in Syria will deepen and the U.S. Federal Reserve may curtail stimulus, reducing demand for the metal. Metal for delivery in three months fell as much as 0.6 percent to $7,150 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and was at $7,160 in Shanghai. The Fed will cut Treasury purchases to $35 billion from $45 billion, while maintaining mortgage-bond buying at $40 billion. On the LME, aluminum, zinc and nickel fell, while lead was little changed.

Since the weekend China has released many economic reports beginning with a  better than expected trade balance, showing a climb in exports, followed by PPI and CPI data showing inflation well in control and today markets saw a jump in industrial production and retail sales which increase the demand for industrial metals.

With the geopolitical tensions easing in Syria the demand for precious metals declined weighing heavily on silver and gold.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 10, 2013 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 10

 

GBP

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

40%

 

40% 

 

37% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

6

 

 

 

-3 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.3%

 

20.2% 

 

20.1% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

10.4%

 

9.9% 

 

9.7% 

 

 

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish CPI (YoY) 

0.40%

 

0.50% 

 

0.60% 

 

 

 

 

NOK

 

 

Norwegian Core Inflation (MoM) 

-0.10%

 

-0.60% 

 

0.40% 

 

 

 

 

NOK

 

 

Norwegian CPI (MoM) 

-0.10%

 

-0.40% 

 

0.40% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Housing Starts 

 

 

190.0K 

 

192.9K 

   

 silver 0910bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 11

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.5% 

1.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.2% 

2.1% 

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

-22.0K 

-29.2K 

 

11:00

EUR

Portuguese CPI (YoY) 

0.6% 

0.8% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 11 09:30 Germany

Sep 11 09:30 Swiss

Sep 11 14:30 Sweden

Sep 11 15:30 Italy

Sep 11 17:00 US

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 UK

Sep 12 15:00 US

Sep 12 15:30 Italy

Sep 12 17:00 US

Sep 13 10:00 Belgium

 

Metals Ease After Russia Offers Alternative To Syria

Metals Ease After Russia Offers Alternative To Syria
Metals Ease After Russia Offers Alternative To Syria
Gold dipped a bit this morning giving up just under $8 to trade at 1378.80 as global tensions took an unexpected turn on Monday. As the US congress returned to Washington to begin the debate on military intervention in Syria a surprise offer from Russia hit the news. President Obama was scheduled for a week of live press coverage working the public for support to strike Syria. John Kerry spent the weekend visiting leaders from around the globe mustering support and backing after the UN and the G20 showed little interest in military action. Gold prices fell as concern about the Syrian conflict escalating eased after President Bashar al-Assad’s government welcomed a Russian proposal to place its chemical weapons under international control. The suggestion comes a day before US President Barack Obama is scheduled to present an Oval Office address seeking support for American military action to oust Assad.

Gold eased as traders once again looked towards the FOMC next week. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, extended its decline from Friday when a report showing weaker than expected jobs data fuelled uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus.

Silver’s decline was limited as strong data from China helped support the demand for industrial metals. Silver tumbled to 23.385 when just a week ago silver was at the $25 level.  China over the weekend reported strong exports during August, at up 7.2% on an annualized basis. Strong Chinese import levels for August were also reported, at up 7.0% year on year.

Consumer inflation in China rose 2.6% in August, year on year, which was in line with expectations. China industrial production figures are due out Tuesday. There was also strong GDP data coming out of Japan Monday. The upbeat Asian economic data is a bullish underlying factor for the precious metals markets.

Copper, the metal used in power and construction, was lifted by data from China that reinforced expectations of a rebound in demand for metals from the world’s largest consumer. Copper gained on Monday but gave back those gains on Tuesday morning as commodities turned to the red. Copper is trading at 3.257 down by 24 points as traders took positions before Chinese data due shortly.

Chinese data is expected to show a climb in retail sales and industrial production which will be supportive of the commodity currencies along with the overall commodities market. As tensions in the Middle East ease, traders will be closely watching economic data for clues. Many traders sold off metals to book profits after political tensions pushed the prices higher.

 

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 23.710 down by 181 points while Copper gained 28 points to trade at 3.289 after Chinese data was supportive of industrial metals today. Precious metals remained flat for the day, as traders worry about US action in Syria and the upcoming Fed meeting. Chinese data was supportive of metals on the whole after the trade balance showed a jump in exports and PPI and CPI reported close to target this morning. There is a slew of Chinese data due this week that could affect metals. An upswing in Chinese exports lifted the commodities markets today, though worries about Syria and uncertainty over when and by how much the U.S. central bank will cut its stimulus program saw investors hedge their bets. In Europe the differing views over the prospects of an early reduction by the U.S. Federal Reserve of its bond-buying stimulus after Friday’s disappointing payrolls report sent equity markets lower, though German 10-year bond prices also fell. The dollar held steady against most major currencies, caught between the view that the Fed’s tapering and resulting further rises in U.S. bond yields would start soon, and talk a move could be delayed by the weak jobs data.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 10, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 09

 

JPY

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.33T

 

0.32T 

 

0.65T 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

0.9% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Current Account n.s.a. 

0.58T

 

0.49T 

 

0.34T 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

2.4%

 

2.0% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.6% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-1.6%

 

-1.8% 

 

-2.3% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.4% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Unemployment Rate s.a. 

3.2%

 

3.2% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 

3.0%

 

3.0% 

 

3.0% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.8%

 

3.2% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

 

 

1.0% 

 

-10.3% 

   

 silver 0904bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 10

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

40% 

36% 

 

06:30

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.2% 

20.1% 

 

06:30

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.9% 

9.7% 

 

13:15

CAD

Housing Starts 

189.0K 

192.9K 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 10 08:10 Holland

Sep 10 09:30 UK

Sep 10 14:30 UK

Sep 10 17:00 US

Sep 11 09:30 Germany

Sep 11 09:30 Swiss

Sep 11 14:30 Sweden

Sep 11 15:30 Italy

Sep 11 17:00 US

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 UK

Sep 12 15:00 US

Sep 12 15:30 Italy

Sep 12 17:00 US

Sep 13 10:00 Belgium

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 9, 2013 Forecast

  •  

    December High Grade Copper futures are called higher today. The weaker dollar is helping to make dollar-denominated copper a more attractive investment for foreign traders, leading to the overnight follow-through rally. Calls for stronger economic news from China later in the week are also helping to boost demand.

    Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data helped weaken the dollar by lessening the prospects the Fed will reduce its monthly monetary stimulus by as much as $20 billion as previously expected. Currently, the Fed is buying up to $85 billion in government bonds per month. Traders are now pricing in a $10 billion cut.

  • Daily December High Grade Copper Futures
    Daily December High Grade Copper Futures
  •  

    The main trend is down on the daily chart. The main trend will turn up when the last top at 3.3950 is taken out. Although greater demand from China could send the market soaring later in the week, it shouldn’t be enough to offset the prospects of Fed tapering by the end of the month.

    Key support has formed at 3.2230 and 3.2200. These lows were created at the major 50% price level at 3.2243. A break though this level could trigger an eventual decline to 3.1840.

    Based on the new short-term range of 3.3950 to 3.2200, the new upside target is a retracement zone at 3.3076 to 3.3282. Since the main trend is down, look for selling pressure to re-emerge following the first test of this zone. 

Chinese Data Supports Industrial Metals

Chinese Data Supports Industrial Metals
Chinese Data Supports Industrial Metals
Gold is trading flat at 1388.00 this morning, moving between small losses and gains as Syria weighs on traders as the US congress returns from its holiday recess and will begin to debate US intervention. With global focus on US lawmakers the Federal Reserve is also back in focus after a lackluster nonfarm payroll release on Friday. U.S. employers hired fewer workers than expected in August and the jobless rate hit a 4-1/2-year low as Americans gave up the search for work, complicating the Fed’s decision on whether to scale back its monetary stimulus this month. Gold has lost 17 percent this year amid expectations the Federal Reserve will curb quantitative easing as early as this month. Fed officials will still reduce the $85 billion monthly bond-buying program by $10 billion at the Sept. 17-18 meeting, according to the median of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey after the jobs data was released. Employers added 169,000 workers after an increase in July of 104,000 that was smaller than first estimated, government figures showed on Friday. 

Last week gold rallied on fears of intervention in Syria as the US pushed hard to build coalition support. France agreed to assist if military action were taken, while the UK Parliament votes against military action but prices eased at the end of the week to close in the red. Gold slightly fell while silver rallied. The market expectations for the next FOMC’s meeting keep gold and silver from forming a clear trend. Some analysts suspect the Fed will taper QE3 in September from $85 billion to $70 billion. Even in such an event, this decision’s effect might not be significant on gold and silver: QE3 had little positive effect on precious metals during 2013; thus, the negative effect might not be too severe over the coming months. Until then, the progress of U.S economy may keep moving gold and silver prices:  Last week, the non-farm payroll report presented an increase of 169k in jobs – a bit lower than anticipated.

The Bank of Japan, on Thursday held its rates and current stimulus and was followed with similar actions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. As traders returned from long summer holidays the markets were more or less quiet and focused on the tensions in the Middle East. Safe haven trading remained the overall controlling factor.

Silver eased 14 cents this morning to trade at 23.75 while copper did the opposite gaining 25 pips to trade at 3.285. Metals are expected to gain after Chinese data this weekend supported a strong recovery in China. The Chinese trade balance surprised investors reporting over expectation while PPI and CPI reported close to expectations this morning. China’s trade surplus rose in August to its highest level this year, while inflation remained under control, government data released on Sunday and Monday showed, in further signs that the Chinese economy and possibly the global economy are faring a little better as the summer ends.

The government reported over the weekend that China’s surplus reached $28.52 billion last month, the highest level since last December, as exports accelerated. Because China is the world’s largest exporter and often the first large country to release trade data each month, its trade figures are a widely watched barometer not only for the health of China’s large export sector but also of the global economy.

 

Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 9-13, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

silver weekly bnsWeekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver ended the week at 23.88 gaining 63 cents on Friday while Copper closed at 3.261 up 17 points and Platinum ended the week at 1495350 up over $13 while Palladium added $10.60 to trade at 697.80. Precious metals finished the week on a strong note, as the latest reading on jobs kept the market guessing about the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than economists expected, and the unemployment rate ticked lower, largely as the result of job hunters dropping out of the labor force. The share of working-age Americans who were employed or looking for work fell to 63.2 percent last month, its lowest level since 1978, a time when fewer women were participating in the labor force.

The Department of Labor reported Friday that the country’s employers expanded their payrolls by 169,000 jobs, below the consensus estimate of 175,000 new jobs, and unemployment dropped from 7.4 percent to 7.3 percent. The total number of unemployed persons remained little changed at 11.3 million, while the number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, was about unchanged at 4.3 million. Those individuals constitute 37.9 percent of the unemployed, and their numbers have shrunk by just 733,000 in the past 12 months.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 06, 2013

23.888

23.233

23.965

23.085

2.80%

Sep 05, 2013

23.238

23.548

23.673

23.043

-1.30%

Sep 04, 2013

23.545

24.368

24.432

23.377

-3.30%

Sep 03, 2013

24.348

24.230

24.528

24.028

0.52%

Sep 02, 2013

24.223

23.318

24.405

23.318

3.75%

On the industrial metal side, stronger PMI data and the overall global recovery is helping increase demands for the metals group. Chinese data was firm all week and there is a good deal more data due this weekend. Base metals pack traded on a positive note today due to weakness in the DX and marginal decline in inventories except Nickel. However, mixed global market sentiments and negative data from the UK and Euro Zone prevented sharp gains.

Copper gained around 0.7 percent mainly on weakness in the DX. Decline in inventories by 0.5 percent which stood at 600275 tonnes supported an upside. However, mixed global market sentiments and unfavorable data from the UK and Euro Zone prevented sharp increase in the prices on the LME.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 44.188 on Aug 22, 2011

Average: 31.108 over this period.

Lowest: 18.183 on Jun 28, 2013

metals 97w

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Currency Markets

Courtesy of Business Spectator: A busy week for global data with a series of Chinese reads at the front end and a slew of US figures at the tail.

On Sunday, China will unveil its trade balance for August, with Bloomberg tipping a surplus of $US22.8 billion. Imports and exports for the month will also be unveiled as part of the release.

Monday delivers the latest read of China’s inflation. Bloomberg expects the inflation rate to remain steady at 2.7 per cent.

On Tuesday, China will release the August reads for industrial production and retail sales. Bloomberg is tipping a 9.8 per cent lift in the former, year-on-year, and a 13.3 per cent jump in the latter, year-on-year. In the US, consumer credit figures for July will be released.

Thursday will deliver the July read on wholesale inventories out of the US, with Bloomberg tipping a 0.3 per cent increase in the month.

On Friday, the import price index for July and the monthly budget statement will be released out of the US. Later on Friday night, the producer price index and retail sales are set for release in the US. Bloomberg expects a month-on-month lift of 0.1 per cent in the former, and 0.3 per cent bump in the latter.

Government Bond Auctions this week:

Sep 09 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 08:10 Holland

Sep 10 09:30 UK

Sep 10 14:30 UK

Sep 10 17:00 US

Sep 11 09:30 Germany

Sep 11 09:30 Swiss

Sep 11 14:30 Sweden

Sep 11 15:30 Italy

Sep 11 17:00 US

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 UK

Sep 12 15:00 US

Sep 12 15:30 Italy

Sep 12 17:00 US

Sep 13 10:00 Belgium

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 6, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures traded lower on Thursday, taking out the previous minor bottom at 3.2230. Although there is a growing bias to the downside, investors seemed reluctant to sell weakness ahead of today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The subsequent rally was probably short-covering.

Investors are looking for today’s jobs report to show that the U.S. economy added 180,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at 7.4%. The number of jobs added should be enough for the Fed to begin tapering by the end of the month. In addition, some traders are pricing in an initial cut of $20 billion of the $85 billion currently being used.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

A number below 180,000 will be of some concern but the real worries will start if the number of jobs added is below 160,000. It may not mean the Fed will scrap its plans to taper, but it may mean the amount of the reduction will have to be adjusted lower.

Technically, the key resistance angle is at 3.2350. A sustained move above this angle could trigger an eventual rally into a retracement zone at 3.3075 to 3.3282. This rally will only take place if the jobs number misses the guess badly to the downside.

A strong number will mean another test of the 50% level at 3.2243. In addition, the selling pressure is likely to take out the two lows at 3.2230 and 3.2200. A sustained move under the 50% level should trigger a further decline into the Fibonacci level at 3.1840.

Traders should brace for a volatile trading session. 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 5, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures broke sharply on Wednesday as investors squared positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Copper is affected by this report because the Fed will use the jobs data to decide whether to begin tapering its monetary stimulus by the end of the month.

The price action this week suggests the Fed is set on reducing stimulus by at least $20 billion per month. Currently it is providing $85 billion per month in monetary stimulus. This should drive up interest rates, making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment. A stronger dollar usually means lower demand for the dollar-denominated copper market.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Fundamentally, investors will get the chance to react to a pair of key economic reports. The Weekly Jobless Claims report is expected to remain flat at 332,000. A lower number could break copper prices. Later in the morning, the U.S. will report its latest ISM Services PMI. A better number will also be bearish for copper prices.

Technically, the weak close has the market in a position to test a major retracement zone at 3.2243 to 3.1840. Taking out the last bottom at 3.2230 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The close also has the market on the weak side of a steep downtrending Gann angle at 3.3670. The nearest uptrending Gann angle support is at 3.0795. 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 4, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures surged on Tuesday, however, the market ran into a short-term resistance zone at 3.3075 to 3.3282. The main trend is down so sellers may re-emerge in this zone, setting up the market for a near-term sell-off.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

The close below the 50% level at 3.3075 could be a sign that sellers are already taking control of the market. This won’t be confirmed, however, until the market breaks the uptrending Gann angle at 3.3035. Based on the short-term range of 3.2230 to 3.3275, downside momentum could drop the market to another 50% level at 3.2753. A break beyond this level could trigger another test of the major 50% level at 3.2243. A move below the minor bottom at 3.2230 will be another sign of weakness.

On the upside, early resistance is the 50% level at 3.3075, followed by the Fibonacci level at 3.3282. A move through this level could trigger a rally into a downtrending Gann angle at 3.3350. Taking out this angle with conviction could trigger a further rally to 3.3600. 

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 5, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Silver wednesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver eased by almost 50 cents today to trade at 23.932 as precious metals took a tumble after a strong day on Tuesday. Industrial metals such as Copper were also in the red, trading at 3.267 down by 37 pips against a flat US dollar. Eco data was supportive of metals today along with stronger Chinese data. Platinum is trading at 1530.25 easing almost $8 while Palladium  tumbled 55 cents at 717.40.

US President Obama appealed to the Congress for a military attack on Syria. Important members of the Senate including Republican John Boehner and the House of Representatives are in favor of military action. As a consequence, base metals declined and, metals are trading down in the range of 0.04% to 0.62% at the LME. Going ahead, the markets should keep a close eye on the services PMI data from around the globe after Chinese PMI came in better. Similar to manufacturing, PMI services should mostly remain higher in the euro-zone and while US services PMI reported well above forecast. The euro-zone’s GDP data reported in line with expectations. However, the retail sales plunged amidst slowing consumption. From the US, the mortgage applications and trade balance might remain weak while the Fed’s Beige book should indicate a moderate economic recovery.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 4, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 04

 

AUD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

0.6% 

 

0.5% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.5% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian GDP (YoY) 

0.5%

 

 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

60.5

 

59.0 

 

60.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

 

0.4% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

-1.00B 

 

-0.47B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

-38.7B 

 

-34.2B 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Exports 

 

 

40.00B 

 

39.57B 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Beige Book 

 

 

 

       

 silver 0904bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 05

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-1.0%

3.8%

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

 

12:00

GBP

BoE QE Total 

375B

375B

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

187K

200K

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

1.3%

0.9%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.1%

1.4%

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

55.2

56.0

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 05 08:30 Spain

Sep 05 08:50 France

Sep 05 15:00 US

Sep 06 15:30 Italy

 

 

Syrian Tensions Manipulating Precious Metals

Syrian Tensions Manipulating Precious Metals
Syrian Tensions Manipulating Precious Metals
Gold climbed on Tuesday above the 1420 level and is trading at 1412.80 in the green this morning. Tensions over the conflict in Syria increased after a leading congressional member endorsed President Obama’s drive for congressional approval to for a limited strike against the Assad government. Gold prices settled higher on Tuesday amid stability in investment demand as holdings in SPDR Gold Trust remained steady at 921.03 tonnes for the fifth consecutive trading day. Some value buying also aided bullion prices. However, prices remained under pressure due to strength in the US dollar. The dollar traded 0.2 percent from a six-week high against the euro amid signs the U.S. economic recovery is gaining traction, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to scale back stimulus this month. The US dollar is trading at 82.43 up 5 points this morning. Gold futures trimmed gains on Tuesday, coming off the highs of the session after data showed that manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded at the fastest rate since April 2011 in August. Gold traders have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Federal Reserve to reduce its bond purchases. This week traders are watching the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the ECB for their decisions and evaluation of their economic situation. While the marquee event will be Friday’s nonfarm payroll release which will give guidance to the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Copper futures were higher on Tuesday, after stronger-than expected manufacturing data on Monday boosted the outlook for the global recovery. Copper is sensitive to the economic outlook because of its widespread uses in construction and manufacturing. Copper is trading at 3.292 easing by 21 points as the US dollar gained momentum. Manufacturing is poised to make a bigger contribution to the U.S. expansion after a factory barometer unexpectedly climbed in Aug to the highest level in more than two years. The ISM’s index rose to 55.7, from 55.4 a month earlier. Global manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in over two years in Aug as new orders. JPMorgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in Aug from July’s 50.8. Construction spending in U.S. increased in July to the highest level in four years, propelled by gains in residential real estate.  Outlays climbed 0.6% to $900.8 bn annual rate.

Silver eased by 25 cents today as industrial metals and precious metals dipped after yesterday’s climb. Silver is trading at 24.173. Yesterday silver prices climbed along with upside in base metals complex, spot silver prices gained around 0.2 percent in Tuesday’s trade. However, strength in the DX capped sharp gains in prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $24.47 and closed at $24.20 in yesterday’s trading session.

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 4, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

silver tuesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver continued to gain adding 72 cents today to trade at 24.24 while Copper climbed by 52 pips to trade at 3.285. Silver prices gained around 0.2 percent today. However, sharp upside was capped due to downside in base metals, fall in gold prices and strength in the DX. Base metals on the LME are trading on a negative note as Russia was quoted as saying that the US warships has been sent close to Syria leading to increased political tensions. Strength in the DX added further downside pressure. Copper declined by 0.5 percent on the LME on account of surging political tensions in Syria due to US warships. Gain in LME copper inventories by as much as 2.2 percent and strength in the DX led to further downfall.

The metals pack climbed backed by the optimism over the improving manufacturing PMI in China and the euro -zone yesterday. Early this morning, the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI increased at a slower pace and added a slight weakness to commodity prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 3, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 03

 

AUD

 

 

Current Account 

-9.4B

 

-8.7B 

 

-8.7B 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

 

2.50% 

 

2.50% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Swiss GDP (QoQ) 

0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish Unemployment Change 

0.0K

 

-5.2K 

 

-64.9K 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Construction PMI 

59.1

 

58.3 

 

57.0 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

RBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

 

 

 

52.0 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

 

 

54.0 

 

55.4 

   

 silver 0903bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 04

09:28

GBP

Services PMI 

59.0

60.2

 

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

0.3%

 

10:00

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-38.2B

-34.2B

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 04 09:10 Sweden

Sep 04 09:30 Germany

Sep 05 08:30 Spain

Sep 05 08:50 France

Sep 05 15:00 US

Sep 06 15:30 Italy

 

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 3, 2013 Forecast

Over the week-end, China and the Euro Zone reported better than expected manufacturing PMI numbers, leading to a strong gain on Monday in the electronic trading session. Since the futures markets were closed, traders are looking for a gap higher opening this morning.

Today, the U.S. is set to release the latest data on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending. Stronger than expected reports will bring the Fed closer to tapering later in the month. This should strengthen the dollar which may limit copper’s upside potential today. Because the attack on Syria is off the table for at least a week, there is greater demand for higher risk assets overnight. This may underpin the market.

Technically, the copper market stopped on a major 50% level at 3.2243 on Friday. Aggressive counter-trend buyers may like the market down here because it is a value area. If a short-term range is forming between 3.3950 and 3.2230, then look for the start of a retracement back to 3.3090 to 3.3293.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Regaining uptrending Gann angle support at 3.2935 will be another sign of strength. This could trigger a rally into a pair of downtrending angles at 3.2950 and 3.3450.

The fundamentals are a bit confusing based on the overnight trade. If trader believe the Fed will begin tapering in late September then theoretically, the market should feel downside pressure. If investors decide that improving Chinese, Euro Zone and U.S. economies will lead to greater demand then look for a rally.

Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending reports should set the tone for the day. Look for increased volatility when these reports are released at 10:00 a.m. ET. 

Asian Markets Start Off With A Bang Along With Industrial Metals

Asian Markets Start Off With A Bang Along With Industrial Metals
Asian Markets Start Off With A Bang Along With Industrial Metals
Global equities started September with a bang after upbeat economic reports in Europe and China buoyed investor confidence on Monday. A slew of manufacturing data spread positive sentiment across Europe and added to recent signs that the eurozone is building a sustained recovery from its longest ever recession. Asian indices are trading higher as Hang Seng was up by 1.01% while Nikkei 225 was up by 2.54% and a Chinese market is down by 0.81%. Asian stocks climbed the most in a month, led by Japan, and the yen weakened on evidence of a pickup in global manufacturing. Gold continued to ease by $3.20 this morning to trade at 1392.90. Silver diverged from gold as precious metals eased by industrial metals climbed. Silver added 62 cents this morning to trade at 24.13. Platinum and palladium also gained this morning. Platinum added 40 cents to tip at 1521.30 while palladium gained $1.80 to trade at 717.70.

As geopolitical tensions eased over the weekend after President Obama decided to request congressional approval before taking action in Syria, pressures tumbled. The US congress is in recess until September 9th. The safe-haven precious metal had surged to a peak of $1,433.83 last Wednesday as investors sought shelter from Syria worries. That was the highest level since May 14. With the US market closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, gold traded little changed after dropping for three days to a one-week low as investors assessed prospects for reduced stimulus in the U.S. as the world’s largest economy recovers. Gold prices settled marginally lower on Monday amid speculation of an early reduction in the Fed’s asset purchase programme. However, a positive manufacturing data print from China aided the outlook on metal demand. Meanwhile, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust remained steady at 921.03 tonnes, which also gave some support to the metal and limited the downside.

Copper pared its gains from Monday, made on the back of the upbeat Chinese manufacturing data. The futures slipped 2 cents to $3.30 a pound, but were still 1.1% higher than their settlement price Friday. Industrial metals prices rose yesterday as strong manufacturing data from top metals consumer China boosted optimism about demand prospects for metals.

The metals market remains sensitive to on going global stimulus as traders look closely at the US FOMC meeting later this month, as the majority think that the Fed will begin tapering its monthly purchases this month. Traders are hoping the Bank of Japan which begins its monthly meeting tomorrow will add to its monthly purchases. There is also a possibility that the Bank of England might increase its program at its meeting on Thursday.

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver traded at 24.010 along with Copper which climbed close to 3% today after Chinese data showed growth in manufacturing. Copper climbed to 3.283 adding 50 points. Platinum eased by $1.65 to trade at 1525.45 following precious metals on the weak side. Palladium climbed to 724.70 gaining 85 cents in today’s quiet session. Precious metals eased as geopolitical tensions fell a bit after President Obama decided to seek Congressional approval before attacking Syria. With the US in the midst of the Labor Day holiday and congressional break, it is unlikely that the decision will be made within the next few days. Global PMI’s data releases sent copper and industrial metals soaring with China reporting above 50 showing expansion touching its highest level in 16 months. While eurozone PMI’s reported well above forecast including a surge in UK data metals were please to react to the good news.

The amount of silver held by the world’s largest silver-backed exchange traded fund rose by 0.4 percent to 10,600.69 tonnes for the week ending on 29th August 2013.For the month of August 2013 holdings gained around 1.75 percent and on a year till date basis holdings surged by more than 5 percent.

Copper advanced for the first time in five days and silver snapped a three-day slump. WTI fell to $106.95 a barrel and U.S. natural gas jumped as much as 3 percent to $3.689 per million British thermal units, the highest since July 25, on speculation warmer weather will boost demand for electricity to power air conditioners. Commodities outperformed stocks and bonds last month. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials rose 3.4 percent in August as U.S. crude reached a two-year high and gold rallied close to a bull market.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 2, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 02

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

 

1.5% 

 

1.4% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Capital Spending (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-2.0% 

 

-3.9% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

10.8%

 

4.0% 

 

-6.3% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Company Operating Profits 

-0.8%

 

0.7% 

 

3.5% 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

50.2 

 

50.1 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

54.6

 

55.9 

 

57.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

51.3

 

51.0 

 

50.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

49.7

 

49.7 

 

49.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacture PMI 

51.8

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.4

 

51.3 

 

51.3 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

57.2

 

55.0 

 

54.8 

   

 silver copper 0901bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 03

09:30

GBP

Construction PMI 

56.5

57.0

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

54.5

55.4

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 03 09:10 Norway

Sep 03 09:15 Austria

Sep 03 09:30 Belgium

Sep 03 09:30 UK

Sep 04 09:10 Sweden

Sep 04 09:30 Germany

Sep 05 08:30 Spain

Sep 05 08:50 France

Sep 05 15:00 US

Sep 06 15:30 Italy

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 2, 2013 Forecast

Demand for higher risk assets could trigger a rise in December High Grade Copper prices today. Although the U.S. futures markets are closed, electronic trading suggests the market is poised for a strong rally. The U.S. Dollar may be trading higher, but this is not having an effect on copper prices. Traders seem to be focused more on the stronger economic data from China than on the possibility the Fed will begin tapering its monetary stimulus later in the month.

Early in the session, copper prices firmed after China’s National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics said their Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing to 51 last month. This was its highest level since April 2012. Last month, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics PMI for China rose to 50.1 versus a July reading of 47.7. Today’s reading suggests the economy has turned the corner and is now growing. This could lead to increased copper demand.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

The U.S. Dollar rose as speculative investors increased bets the Fed would begin reducing monetary stimulus after its September 17 – 18 monetary policy meeting. The up move also indicates investors believe Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report will be strong enough to warrant such a change.

The news that the U.S. has most likely delayed its attack on Syria may have added some confusion to the markets, but the focused seemed to be on the data from China anyway. This may become a factor later in the week or early next week.

Technically, the main trend turned down on the daily chart last week when the market took out the last swing bottom at 3.2925. The sharp break came to a halt however on the first test of a major 50% price level at 3.2243. Based on the new short-term range of 3.3950 to 3.2230, a rally today could trigger the start of a retracement into 3.3090 to 3.3293.

The key to rally today will be how the market reacts following its first test of 3.2935 to 3.2950. A sustained move through these two Gann angles could trigger a sharp breakout into the aforementioned retracement zone.

Today is a holiday in the U.S. so the trading session will be short. Volume is expected to be down also so do not treat it as a normal trading day.