Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 20, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper continued its rally on Thursday after the Fed fueled a strong breakout the previous day when it decided not to begin reducing its monetary stimulus this month. Although the main trend turned up on the daily chart when the market took out the last swing top at 3.2990, the market may run into resistance at another old top at 3.3950 especially since the sputtering U.S. economy may not necessarily lead to increased demand.

Short-covering and speculative buying may have been the catalyst behind the initial thrust but this could come to an end if demand doesn’t pick-up, or if the U.S. Dollar begins its own short-covering rally. In refraining from tapering, the Fed did mention its concerns about the sluggish economy. This could mean less demand for copper and a sideways market.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Look for early resistance today at 3.3500, followed by 3.3725 then the main top at 3.3950. Since the market is approaching overbought territory after a prolonged move up in price and time, traders should pay attention to the chart patterns. A closing price reversal top today, for example, could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day break.

The first downside target is a short-term retracement zone at 3.3169 to 3.2928. Uptrending Gann angle support is at 3.2905 today. 

Gold Headed For Weekly Gain

Gold Headed For Weekly Gain
Gold Headed For Weekly Gain
Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from US in yesterday’s trading session. Further, Federal Reserve decision to maintain its status quo also acted as a positive factor. US Unemployment Claims rose by 15,000 to 309,000 for the week ending on 13th September as against a rise of 294,000 a week ago. Existing Home Sales was at 5.48 million in August when compared to 5.39 million in July. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index jumped sharply by 13 points to 22.3-mark in September with respect to 9.3. Risk appetite across the globe got a boost in commodities after the US Federal Reserve surprised financial markets by continuing with its $85 billion dollar stimulus injection program. Earlier in a press conference, the US Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke said that tapering of quantitative easing will depend only on strong evidence that economic growth and the pace of hiring are picking up consistently. The Federal Reserve also cut its economic growth forecast for 2013 to 2% from a 2.3 % earlier. Catalyzed by the surprise move from Federal Reserve, gold prices surged and are trading around $1363 a troy ounce. Gold snapped a two-day advance, trimming the first weekly increase in a month, as U.S. economic data backed the case for reduced stimulus after the Fed Reserve this week maintained the pace of monthly bond purchase. Gold is down $5.80 in this morning session. Gold was hovering near one-week highs on Friday and was on track for its biggest weekly climb in five weeks but gains were likely to be capped during Asian hours as key buyer China was closed for the mid-autumn festival.

The US Dollar Index (DX) gained marginally by 0.1 percent yesterday after falling sharply by more than 1 percent in previous trade. A slight recovery was seen in the currency on the back of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments in later part of the trade. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of favorable economic data from US in yesterday’s trade. The DX touched an intra-day high of 80.56 and closed at 80.48 on Thursday.

Silver took cues from precious metals and the metals pack to decline this morning to trade at 22.97 down by 32 cents, while copper dipped by 3 points to trade at 3.34 after a strong gain this week. The base metals pack on the LME traded on a positive note due to upbeat global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX, which was due to Fed’s decision of keeping the pace of QE constant until the jobs market improve, supported gains in the base metals prices. LME Copper prices rose around 1.8 percent taking cues from Fed’s decision of easy monetary policy and upbeat global market sentiments. Decline in inventories by 0.6 percent to 568,575 tons added to the upside in prices. 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 19, 2013 Forecast

A weaker U.S. Dollar helped trigger a surge in December High Grade Copper on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve opted to maintain its $85 billion per month in monetary stimulus. Since copper is dollar-denominated, a drop in the dollar could fuel increased foreign demand.

Copper is expected to find short-term support because of the Fed’s decision, but since the idea of tapering monetary stimulus has not been taken off the table permanently, any gains are likely to be limited. The first resistance today is 3.3525, followed by 3.3737 then the recent main top at 3.3950.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

On the downside, crossing over to the bullish side of a retracement zone has made the Fibonacci level at 3.3169 and the 50% level at 3.2928 key support. Additional support is being provided by an uptrending Gann angle at 3.2705.

The Fed’s decision to refrain from tapering should not affect prices over the long-run. Look for investors to make some short-term price adjustments before the shorting pressure resumes. I don’t think the market can sustain the momentum created on Wednesday which makes it vulnerable to a near-term correction. 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 18, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper is trading flat ahead of the opening this morning. Traders are reluctant to choose a side ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve monetary policy statement.

At 2:00 pm ET, the Fed is expected to announce its plan to begin reducing its monthly $85 billion in monetary stimulus by $10 to $15 billion. This announcement will be followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at 2:30 pm ET. Both events are expected to trigger volatile moves in the markets. The key market to watch for copper traders will be the U.S. Dollar. A weaker dollar will underpin dollar-denominated copper prices. A stronger dollar should put downside pressure on copper.

If the Fed reduces its stimulus by the estimate then look for copper prices to rally slightly since this action has already been priced into the market. A higher than expected stimulus cut will be bearish for copper prices. The Fed could surprise traders by refraining from doing anything. This would send the dollar lower and copper prices soaring.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart. A sustained move on the weak side of a 50% level at 3.2243 should trigger a break through the last swing bottom at 3.1905 and into the Fibonacci level at 3.1840. A move under the Fib number should draw the attention of short sellers.

Look for an upside breakout if the market can sustain a move through a series of price levels at 3.2358, 3.2447 and 3.2575. Enough upside momentum may be created by this move to trigger an eventual rally into the last swing top at 3.2990. A trade through this price will turn the main trend to up. Eventually, the market may reach a major Fib level at 3.3169.

While the direction is uncertain at this time, investors can count on excessive volatility and the possibility of a two-sided trade. 

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 19, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Silver wednesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 21.623 down 16 cents and declining ahead of the Fed’s statement. Based metals are trading in the red with copper actually rebounding a bit to gain 14 points to trade at 3.237 due to a weak US dollar. Copper swung between gains and losses before the Federal Reserve concludes a two-day meeting today when policy makers will decide whether to slow its monthly bond-buying program. The metal for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was little changed at $7,069.75 a metric ton. The Federal Open Market Committee has been meeting for two days to consider whether it will taper its $85 billion a month in bond buying. On the LME, aluminum, lead and zinc climbed, while tin and nickel dropped. Fundamentally, the mining sector has also remained weak, with increasing austerity which should continue to weigh down on gains in base metals. China’s Ministry of Industry & Information Technology has also ordered to eliminate outdated capacity of a combined 24,700MT of copper, 25,000Mt of lead and other lead battery facilities.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 18, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 18

 

NZD

 

 

Current Account 

-1.25B

 

-1.80B 

 

-0.66B 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

 

 

0.950M 

 

0.954M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

 

 

0.917M 

 

0.896M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 silver 0918bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 19

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

1.1%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.3%

3.0%

 

09:30

GBP

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

1.1%

 

09:30

GBP

Core Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.1%

3.1%

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

2

 

 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-96.8B

-106.1B

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

5.34M

5.39M

 

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

10.1

9.3

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

6.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

 

Gold Surprises Traders And Falls Below $1300

Gold Surprises Traders And Falls Below $1300
Gold Surprises Traders And Falls Below $1300
With the big day upon us, markets are expected to remain stable until the FOMC announcement due late in the US trading session. As traders positioned themselves ahead of the announcement the question of whether or not the Fed will taper its monetary policy seems to be all but decided. The question seems to remain, exactly how much will the Fed cut. Traders are making a leap of faith ahead of the actual announcement. Gold took a major tumble falling below the all important 1300 level to trade at 1297.20 this morning down by $12. Gold hovered just above a five-week low yesterday as traders waited for guidance on when the US Federal Reserve will begin tapering its massive economic stimulus. Bullion has lost more than 20 percent of its value this year as a recovering US economy has dented its safe-haven appeal and raised fears the US central bank would scale back its commodities-friendly bond purchases. Traders said prices would find their next support level at $1,270-$1,280 an ounce.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed exchange-traded product, were unchanged for a second day at 911.12 metric tons yesterday. Assets have shrunk 33 percent this year, wiping more than $34 billion from the value of the fund, as the global economy recovers and inflation fails to accelerate. The U.S. consumer-price index rose 0.1 percent in August from July, compared with economists’ estimates for a 0.2 percent gain, data showed yesterday. Gold futures had risen above $1,315 an ounce after former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on Monday dropped out of the race to become the head of the Fed. Summers was widely viewed as more likely to push for a faster end to the central bank’s easy-money policies that have been credited for supporting gold prices and weighing on the dollar.

Gold, often seen as a hedge against inflation and a slowing economy, benefited when central banks around the world launched stimulus measures to support their economies. The metal hit an all-time high of about $1,920 an ounce in 2011. But this year several analysts have cut their forecasts for gold prices in anticipation of the U.S. central bank curbing its stimulus measures. Goldman Sachs expects prices to drop to $1,050 by the end of next year. Due to the volatility in prices, physical demand has failed to pick up rapidly in key consumers India and China. Expectations that prices could fall further once the Fed announces a cut in stimulus have also restrained purchases.

Silver for immediate delivery slid 1.2 percent to $21.4763, dropping for a third day. Platinum declined as much as 0.6 percent to $1,414.55 an ounce, the lowest level since July 26. Palladium decreased 1 percent to $697.53 an ounce, halting a three-day increase. The overall metals pack is trading on a negative note with little data or guidance today. Copper eased by 3 points to trade at 3.222. Today trading will be flat as traders await Mr. Bernanke’s decision later in the day.

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 18, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

silver tuesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 21.795 easing 21 cents as precious metals were weak as well as industrial metals today. Silver is trading near a recent low not even seeing support from the lower greenback. Copper and tin were the only base metals that benefited from positive market mood on Monday. The price of the three-month contract on copper (LME) partially regained some ground after a sell-off in last couple of days and increased by more than 0.5% while the price of aluminum continued to slide down. More importantly, aluminum physical premiums have continued to drift lower in September indicating that long-present LME warehousing issues may improve in months to come. This could, consequently, put additional downside pressure on the aluminum price.

Base metals continue to trade in a narrow range. Most of the movement on the exchanges could be explained mainly by the greenbacks movement. Some of the metals like nickel, aluminum and lead are facing additional downward pressure due to rise in inventories. The complex is likely to move sideways to lower ahead of the Fed’s tapering decision, however improving macroeconomic scenario in China and Europe is likely to support the complex. Thus, we would recommend going long once the tapering related sell-off is over if the Fed’s tapering is in the line of expectation, ie $10 billion

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 17, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 17

 

AUD

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.7% 

 

2.8% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

1.2% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

49.6

 

46.0 

 

42.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

58.6

 

47.2 

 

44.0 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

1.70%

 

1.00% 

 

-0.10% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.6% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.8% 

 

1.7%

   

 silver 0917bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 18

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.950M

0.954M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.913M

0.896M

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits (MoM) 

 

3.9%

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts (MoM) 

 

5.9%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 17, 2013 Forecast

Following a gap higher opening on Monday, December High Grade Copper futures gave back all of its gains into the close, indicating that the early strength was probably triggered by short-covering rather than fresh buying.

Overnight, the market once again tested a major retracement zone at 3.2243 to 3.1840. Buyers stopped the break, putting it in a position to challenge a major downtrending Gann angle at 3.2450. Since the main trend is down, look for selling pressure to emerge following the first test of this angle. A sustained move through this angle could trigger a quick rally into a Fibonacci level at 3.2575.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

This morning’s flat CPI report did not have a big influence on the price action. Volume and volatility are expected to be low today as investors hit the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s Fed statement. Expectations are for a range bound trade with the market trading both sides of a 50% level at 3.2243 for most of the session.

Following tomorrow’s Fed statement, investors are encouraged to watch the action in the U.S. Dollar Index. A weaker dollar could trigger a rally in copper. A stronger dollar will likely attract fresh selling pressure. Taking out the Fibonacci level at 3.1840 will put the market in an extremely weak position. 

Gold Tumbles As Knee Jerk Reaction To Summers Passes

Gold Tumbles As Knee Jerk Reaction To Summers Passes
Gold Tumbles As Knee Jerk Reaction To Summers Passes

Gold went for a roller coast ride on Monday, reversing early gains as growing conviction the U.S. Federal Reserve would decide to roll back its stimulus from this month dented the metal’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. Weekend news included an agreement between the US and Russia for the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria followed by the surprise withdrawal of Larry Summers, the potential replacement for Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve.  Easing geopolitical tensions also hurt gold’s safe-haven appeal. Analysts said it is now less likely there will be US-led military attacks on Syria in response to a chemical weapons attack blamed on President Bashar al-Assad. Gold, posted its steepest weekly drop in more than two months last week slipping 0.1 percent to $1,324.61 after hitting an intraday high of $1,334.46. Silver fell nearly 2 percent.  This morning gold is trading at 1313.30 down $4.50 in the Asian session. News that former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers had dropped out of the race to head the Fed boosted bullion prices briefly on Monday morning as he is seen as more hawkish than the other main contender Janet Yellen. Markets however do not expect this to derail the near-term tapering process.

Traders are now preparing for the big event of the month, the US FOMC rate decision due tomorrow. The FOMC will begin its two day meeting in just a few short hours. Fed policy makers have pledged to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero at least as long as unemployment exceeds 6.5 percent and the outlook for inflation is no more than 2.5 percent. The central bank will release its 2016 economic projections tomorrow, including the outlook for the benchmark rate. The U.S. central bank will probably reduce its bond purchases to $75 billion a month, from $85 billion currently. The Federal Reserve is getting ready to taper off its quantitative easing, while other central banks are still determined to keep their extraordinary policies in place, the dollar is going to benefit from the divergence in monetary policy which should send gold tumbling.

Traders said gold rose in a knee-jerk response to the Summers news because he was widely regarded as being more “hawkish” than current Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, who is also a candidate and is now deemed the new front-runner. Traders now see a 55 per cent probability that the first rate increase will take place in December 2014 and 68 percent chance in January 2015, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch, which generates probabilities based on the price of federal funds futures traded at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Silver is trading at 21.933 down 76 pips this morning with both industrial metals and precious metals trading in the red. Copper is flat this morning after giving back gains on Monday morning. With the US dollar recovering from the Summer’s reaction, industrial metals are returning to their previous prices. Market focus for metals and energy will be the US FOMC meeting as traders will sit tight until Mr. Bernanke’s speech tomorrow. Little is expected today and metals are expected to stay well within their trading ranges.

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 17, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 17, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 17, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver climbed to trade at 21.87 up by 15 cents as traders took advantage of the weak dollar to grab up the cheap commodity, while copper gained 25 points as market sentiment shifted and the greenback weakened. Silver diverged from gold today, and showed strength. Easing geopolitical tensions in Syria also hurt gold’s safe-haven appeal on Monday. The US agreed to call off military action against Syria under a deal with Russia to remove President Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile.

Hedge funds and money managers slashed bullish bets in futures and options in the US gold market for the first time in five weeks, a weekly report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Copper traders benefited from the weak US dollar and ongoing positive market sentiment. Copper rose in New York on speculation the Federal Reserve will be less inclined to curb U.S. economic stimulus after former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers withdrew his nomination to head the central bank. Summers would tighten Fed policy more than Janet Yellen, who was his main rival to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll last week. The Fed’s policy-making committee may lower monthly debt purchases by $10 billion at a two-day meeting starting tomorrow, a separate survey showed. The U.S. is the second-biggest copper consumer.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 16, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 16

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.80%

 

8.70% 

 

8.80% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish Budget balance 

0.3B

 

 

 

-1.2B 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

 

1.3% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.1%

 

1.1% 

 

1.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

6.09B

 

-2.23B 

 

-15.43B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

6.29

 

9.20 

 

8.24 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

 

0.4% 

 

0.0%

   

 silver 0916bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 17

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.8%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

0.2%

1.1%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

46.0

42.0

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

2.0%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

-66.9B

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

6.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 16, 2013 Forecast

Greater demand for higher risk assets is helping to boost December High Grade Copper prices this morning. The news that Larry Summers has withdrawn from the race to become the new Fed Chairman is driving down the U.S. Dollar, making the dollar-denominated copper market more desirable.

Technical factors are also helping to boost copper prices. Late last week, the market entered the major retracement zone bounded by 3.2243 to 3.1840. This is a natural buying zone, but prior to the overnight trade, investors showed no interest in making a counter-trend buy.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

The overnight rally has put the market back on the bullish side of an uptrending Gann angle at 3.2185 and a 50% level at 3.2243. These two levels should underpin the market.

On the upside, the first target is a minor retracement zone at 3.2447 to 3.2575. This was created by the short-term range of 3.2990 to 3.1905.

The key number to watch is 3.2550. Taking out this downtrending Gann angle will be a sign of strength. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with a major 50% level at 3.2928 the next likely upside target. A trade through the main top at 3.2990 will turn the main trend to up on the daily chart.

Since the market is in a downtrend, the overnight strength was most likely triggered by short-covering. The key will be the follow-through move. If this rally is real then investors will jump on it from the opening. If there is no follow-through then look for renewed selling pressure.

Although the news about Summers moved the market, the main focus for investors this week is the two-day Fed meeting. When it ends on Wednesday, look for the central bank to announce it will begin tapering its monthly $85 billion in monetary stimulus. Investors are pricing in a cut of about $10 billion to start. This may give the dollar a boost which could trigger another break in copper. 

Gold Traders Uneasy – Spark Temporary Rally

Gold Traders Uneasy - Spark Temporary Rally
Gold Traders Uneasy – Spark Temporary Rally

Gold reacted quickly to Mr. Summer’s withdrawal of his nomination to head the FOMC. Gold climbed by $22.00 in the early morning session to trade at 1331.00. Exactly why a possible nomination is having such a huge market effect is an indication of the frayed nerves of commodity traders ahead of this week’s FOMC meet and possible taping. Syria weighed heavily on the markets over the last two weeks exhausting traders. Gold gained as the dollar dropped to the lowest level in a month after Lawrence Summers withdrew from consideration. Silver rallied from its worst week since June.

The U.S. and Russia held talks on a plan for Syria to surrender chemical weapons to avert a strike that could stoke Middle East tensions and announced a successful conclusion and a plan to move forward easing market tensions. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first move to taper its $85 billion in monthly bond buying when its two-day meeting ends Wednesday. While the Fed is seen curbing bond purchases by an initial $10 to $15 billion — a relative baby step compared to the massive amount of stimulus applied — it sends an important message that the Fed is moving toward a normalization of rates and expecting a more normal economy. While the Fed meeting in the week ahead tops the list, Congressional budget maneuvering and any developments on Syria will also get attention. The United Nations is expected to receive a report Monday which should show if Syria used chemical weapons on its citizens.

Silver is trading at 22.193 gaining 47 cents as the US dollar weakened to trade at 81.26 down by 42 points following cues from gold. The tonnage of silver bullion bars held by the US silver ETF increased around 30 tons or. 0.3 percent to 10,536.70 tons. Precious metals are expected to trade with a mixed note on the back of ease in concerns in QE tapering from Federal Reserve in its meeting during the week. The base metals pack on the LME traded on a negative note in the last week due to concerns regarding QE taper which could be announced in the FOMC meeting this week and mixed economic data from the advanced economies. However, weakness in the DX and decline in inventories prevented sharp decline in the base metals on the LME. Copper gained this morning as the US dollar tumbled. Copper prices on the LME slipped around 1.3 percent in last week and touched a low of $7024/ton on Friday. Prices declined during the later part of the week on the back of favorable economic data from US increased concerns of QE tapering from the Federal Reserve.

Further, decline in industrial production data from Euro Zone exerted downside pressure on prices. In the early part of the week, prices rose on account of positive economic data from Chinese economy.

 

 

Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

silver weekly bnsWeekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver ended the week on a down note as precious metals lost their appeal. Silver traded as low as 21.42 but rebounded to end at 22.243 while Copper  closed at 3.205. The base metals pack traded on a negative note as positive employment data from the US in yesterday’s trade and estimates of positive data from US in evening session fuelled QE taper concerns that could be announced in the FOMC meet next week. Strength in the DX acted as a negative factor. Weak global market sentiments added to the downside pressure on prices.

This week prices will be closely associated to the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors turned their attention away from Syria as the risk of a U.S. military strike receded. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were set to conclude the final day of talks in Geneva on Friday to study the proposal for Damascus to give up its chemical weapons. Instead, market participants focused more on the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week, waiting to see whether the central bank will start scaling back its $85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program. Analysts speculate that recent upbeat data will make for a strong enough case for the Fed to begin the tapering process at the meeting.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 13, 2013

22.243

22.015

22.273

21.423

1.03%

Sep 12, 2013

22.017

23.183

23.195

21.755

-5.01%

Sep 11, 2013

23.178

23.087

23.247

22.795

0.38%

Sep 10, 2013

23.090

23.755

23.765

22.845

-2.81%

Sep 09, 2013

23.758

23.928

23.973

23.445

-0.72%

 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 09

02:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.6%

2.7%

 

02:30

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-1.6%

-1.8%

-2.3%

 

02:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

0.4%

0.1%

Sep. 10

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

40%

40%

37%

 

06:30

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.3%

20.2%

20.1%

 

06:30

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

10.4%

9.9%

9.7%

 Sep. 11

06:30

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.1%

1.2%

2.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

-32.6K

-22.0K

-36.3K

 

10:35

EUR

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

2.060%

 

1.800%

 

11:00

EUR

Portuguese CPI (YoY) 

0.2%

0.6%

0.8%

 

18:00

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

2.946%

 

2.620%

 Sep. 12

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

-0.3%

 

08:00

EUR

Spanish CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

1.5%

1.8%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.5%

0.1%

0.6%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.1%

-0.1%

-0.4%

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

0.4%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

292K

330K

323K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

2871K

2960K

2944K

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-147.9B

-150.0B

-97.6B

Sep. 13 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

0.3%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

0.2%

0.0%

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4%

0.4%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

1.4%

1.3%

2.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

1.1%

1.3%

1.2%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

76.8

82.0

82.1

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 44.188 on Aug 22, 2011

Average: 31.108 over this period.

Lowest: 18.183 on Jun 28, 2013

 silver 0914bnsnla

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 16

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

1.3%

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.1%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

-0.5%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

9.10

8.24

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.3%

 

Sep. 17

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.8%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

0.2%

1.1%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

46.0

42.0

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

2.0%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

-66.9B

 Sep. 18

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.950M

0.954M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.913M

0.896M

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits (MoM) 

 

3.9%

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts (MoM) 

 

5.9%

 Sep. 19

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

1.1%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.3%

3.0%

 

09:30

GBP

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

1.1%

 

09:30

GBP

Core Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.1%

3.1%

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

2

 

 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-96.8B

-106.1B

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

5.34M

5.39M

 

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

10.1

9.3

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

6.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

 

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 13, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures are trading lower despite a weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report and a falling U.S. Dollar.

After Thursday’s break through 3.2200 reaffirmed the downtrend, the market broke sharply into a major retracement zone at 3.2343 to 3.1840. In addition, the market took out an uptrending Gann angle at 3.2135. This puts copper in a position to challenge the next Gann angle at 3.1335.

Daily December High Grade Copper
Daily December High Grade Copper

Although downside momentum is building, the prolonged move in price and time has the market ripe for a closing price reversal bottom. In addition, traders may be looking to pare positions later in the day as they prepare for next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

Next week, the Fed will decide how much to reduce its monthly monetary stimulus. Interest rates may rise after the decision, leading to a stronger dollar. This could hurt dollar-denominated copper further because it may reduce demand from foreign investors.

Traders should look for a sideways-to-lower trade early in the session, but may mount a turnaround into the close.

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Silver friday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver eased by 72 cents to trade at 21.423 as precious metals remained in the red after tensions in Syria continue to ease. Industrial metals are also trading in the red, with copper  trading at 3.205 down 5 pips. Copper prices fell on Thursday as reduced risk appetite ahead of the Fed policy meet next week hurt base metals. Euro zone industrial production fell by 1.5% in July which raised demand concerns from the region and pushed prices further down. Weak Japanese machinery orders and lower US unemployment claims also put pressure on prices. Traders can expect Copper to remain in range to lower as investors would await US retail sales, PPI and consumer sentiment data to get more clarity about the economic recovery in US and Fed’s action. The Federal Open Market Committee will decide to reduce monthly purchases of Treasuries to $35 billion from $45 billion, according to the median of 34 responses in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Policy makers will maintain mortgage-bond buying at $40 billion, the survey shows.

Base Metals on LME traded on mixed note on the expectations among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying program soon coupled with mixed LME inventories. Further, rise in risk aversion in the global markets kept prices under pressure. However, strong economic data from globe along with the weakness in DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices. LME Copper decreased by 1.31 percent on weak global market sentiments along with unfavorable economic data from eurozone added downside pressure on the prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 13

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

3.4%

 

3.2% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.1%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Employment Change (YoY) 

-1.0%

 

-0.9% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

 

0.3% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

 

 

1.3% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

 

 

1.3% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

 

82.0 

 

82.1 

   

 silver 0913bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 16

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

1.3%

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.1%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

-0.5%

 

13:30

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases 

 

-15.41B

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

9.10

8.24

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.3%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

 

 

Precious Metals Tumble Hard

 

Precious Metals Tumble Hard
Precious Metals Tumble Hard
Gold fell off its high perch yesterday tumbling to trade at 1330 at the close and continues in the red this morning giving up another $5 to trade at 1325.40. The US dollar strengthened to touch 81.79 after supportive US data. The U.S. budget deficit narrowed in August from a year earlier as a stronger job market boosted revenue, propelling the world’s largest economy toward its smallest annual shortfall since 2008. Outlays exceeded receipts by $147.9 billion last month, compared with a $190.5 billion gap in August 2012. Confidence among American consumers stabilized last week after four straight declines even as their views of the economy deteriorated. Jobless claims in the U.S. declined last week to the lowest level since April 2006 as work on computer systems in two states caused those employment agencies to report fewer applications. First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended Sept. 7.

Gold headed for the biggest weekly loss in more than two months on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will taper stimulus and as the threat of a U.S. attack on Syria eased. Gold prices declined around 3.4 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments. Further, favorable economic data from US increased concerns of QE tapering from the Federal Reserve in its meeting next week acted as a negative factor. Additionally, a declining trend in SPDR gold holdings to 917.13 tons exerted downside pressure on prices. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with weak global market sentiments, silver prices slipped by more than 6 percent in yesterday’s trade. Silver is trading at 22.025 down 124 points. Instigated by shaky economic events from both side of Atlantic and Asia, commodities are trading lower with a muffled action. Gold prices tumbled to the lowest point in four weeks amid speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start tapering its $85 billion bond buying program next week. Moreover, comments from leading brokers also added pressure to the counter. Earlier in a report Wall Street’s leading investment banker Goldman Sachs said that they are expecting gold prices to touch 1, 175 in the next 12 months. Consequently, pursued by the cues from the yellow metal, silver also declined to a three week low.

Copper is trading in the green recovering from losses earlier this week. Strong US data helped support the metals pack but there was little economic data for the day. Copper is trading this morning at 3.213

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Silver thursday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Silver tumbled by 47 cents to trade at 22.70 as the commodities market traded in the red. Copper eased by 32 points to trade at 3.226. Meanwhile, prices of precious metals–regarded as a safe retreat–slumped as diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Russia over the situation in Syria gathered momentum. Silver futures continued their bearish trend tracking a down trend in gold prices on Thursday. The white metal is expected to continue with its bearish trend for the day. Silver futures on the Comex edged down and were seen trading negative on concerns that US Federal Reserve may start reducing its monetary stimulus later this month on improving economic conditions in the United States and around the world. However, a decline in Euro zone industrial production may have supported the bullion commodities to certain extent in the global market on Thursday.

In July 2013 compared with June 2013, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 1.5% in the Euro area (EA17) and by 1.0% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat released on Thursday.

Copper fell to the lowest level in almost a week as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. Nickel also dropped. The metal has fallen 10 percent this year. Copper earlier rose as much as 0.2 percent amid signs of an economic recovery in China, the world’s biggest metal consumer

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 12, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 12

 

JPY

 

 

Core Machinery Orders (YoY) 

6.5%

 

7.6% 

 

4.9% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

 

2.50% 

 

2.50% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

-10.8K

 

10.0K 

 

-11.4K 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.8%

 

5.8% 

 

5.7% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian Industrial Production (YoY) 

-4.3%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.5%

 

0.1% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.4% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

 

 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

330K 

 

323K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

2960K 

 

2951K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Federal Budget Balance 

 

 

-150.0B 

 

-97.6B 

   

 silver 0912bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 13

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

 

-0.5%

 

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (YoY) 

 

-1.0%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

1.3%

2.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

1.3%

1.2%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

82.0

82.1

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 13 10:00 Belgium

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

 

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 12, 2013 Forecast

December High Grade Copper futures are down nearly 1% overnight, as investors awaited the latest U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims report. In addition, investors are pricing in the possibility the Fed will begin reducing its monetary stimulus by the end of the month. This tends to weaken demand for copper because it raises interest rates, making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment and copper more expensive for foreign buyers.

This morning’s report is expected to show that jobless claims rose last week from 323,000 to 332,000. A number below the estimate could break copper even further because it will mean the economy is growing, making it more likely the Fed will reduce its bond purchases when it meets next week to decide monetary policy.

Daily High Grade Copper
Daily High Grade Copper

Technically, the market found resistance on a downtrending Gann angle at 3.2750. This triggered a plunge into a major 50% level at 3.2243, threatening to take out the last swing bottom at 3.2200. A break through this level will reaffirm the downtrend.

Taking out the 50% level and the swing bottom will be signs of weakness. The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 3.2085. If downside momentum continues then look for further selling pressure down to the Fibonacci level at 3.1840.

Precious Metals Trading In The Red Ahead Of The Fed

Gold is trading at 1355.50 down by $8.30 this morning, while silver continued to ease trading below the $23 price level at 22.943. Copper tumbled along with the rest of the metals as sentiment shifted. Precious metals have been trading in the red as tensions over Syria continue to ease. Palladium is trading at 688.90 after trading above 700 yesterday. Platinum fell by $7.50 to trade at 1467.65. The US dollar is also trading in the red, at 81.63. Traders shifted investments yesterday to equities as President Obama asked congress to delay their vote on military action in Syria.

Precious Metals Trading In The Red Ahead Of The Fed
Precious Metals Trading In The Red Ahead Of The Fed

Gold prices increased on Tuesday by around 0.2 percent on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of declining trend in SPDR gold holdings which stood at 917.13 tons. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1367.9 and closed at $1366.10 in yesterday’s trading session.

Precious metal traders are now focusing on the upcoming FOMC meeting which will begin on the 17th. Stanley Druckenmiller, who heads one of the hedge-fund industry’s best long-term track records of the past three decades, said it would be a “big deal” for financial markets if the Fed Reserve were to completely end its asset purchases as outlined over the next 12 month. Gold has declined 19 percent this year amid expectations that the Fed will pare its $85 billion a month of bond-buying as the economy improves. While data today may show U.S. jobless claims rose for the first time in three weeks, a Bloomberg survey on Sept. 6 showed that the central bank will taper its quantitative easing by $10 billion at the Sept. 17-18 meeting. 

Gold prices fell as tensions in Syria eased after speech by US President Obama showed a diplomatic route along with Russia after Syria agreed to surrender its chemical weapons. Upcoming Fed meeting also raised fear about bond tapering which hurt gold prices further. GFMS in its report yesterday said that gold prices will contract further in 2014. Global gold demand will fall to 2,237 tons in the second half from 2,309 tons in the same period a year earlier and 2,533 tons in the first six months as bar buying drops from a record and central banks add less, Thomson Reuters GFMS said. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed exchange-traded product, were unchanged for a second day at 917.13 metric tons yesterday. Demand from India is seen surging as festival season approaches. Gold prices are expected to move down as easing tensions in Syria, stabilizing economy across the globe and fear of US tapering its bond buying can push gold prices further down.

 

 

 

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 23.133 recovering some of yesterday’s losses to trade at 23.133, copper climbed also to trade at 3.287. Other precious metals such as platinum gained slightly reaching 1477.65 along with palladium which gained over 1% to trade at 700.40. Silver prices decreased by 3.04 percent in Yesterday’s trading session on the back of decline in Spot gold prices coupled with downside in the base metal packs. Further, expectation among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying program soon added downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on the back of strong economic data from china, weakness in DX along with rise in risk appetite in the global markets.

Silver prices should trade on the negative note on the back of expectation among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying programme soon. Further, expectation of weak economic data from UK may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, mixed global market sentiments may keep prices under pressure. However, weakness in DX may cushion sharp downside in the prices.

Base Metals on LME traded on negative note on the expectations among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying program soon. However, strong economic data from China along with the rise in risk appetite in the global markets cushioned sharp fall in the prices. LME Copper decreased by 0.43 percent

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 11, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 11

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

15.2

 

7.2 

 

5.0 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

CGPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

4.70%

 

 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

 

1.7% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.1%

 

1.2% 

 

2.2% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-32.6K

 

-22.0K 

 

-36.3K 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

2.060%

 

 

 

1.800% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Portuguese CPI (YoY) 

0.2%

 

0.6% 

 

0.8% 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Current Account (EUR) 

-178.00

 

-11.00 

 

574.00

   

 silver 0911bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 12

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

-0.3%

 

08:00

EUR

Spanish CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

1.8%

 

09:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.5%

-2.1%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.1%

0.7%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.1%

0.3%

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.4%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

328K

323K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

2960K

2951K

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-152.0B

-97.6B

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 UK

Sep 12 15:00 US

Sep 12 15:30 Italy

Sep 12 17:00 US

Sep 13 10:00 Belgium