Bitcoin’s Weekend Decline Finds Support at Shallow Fibonacci Levels

The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) made a strong decline during the weekend. The price drop occurred after breaking the 60k resistance last week and reaching the first $65k target.

Although the bearish correction was impulsive, this article will analyse why the uptrend still has better odds than a reversal. Let’s start.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin 19.04.2021 daily chart

The BTC/USD completed the wave 4 (orange) as mentioned last time. We considered the next push up as a wave 5 (orange):

  1. This wave 5 did not move up that far and high, but it is quite normal for the uptrend to lose some momentum in a wave 5 (purple line in the AO). There was a small rising wedge pattern that probably supported the slow move up.
  2. The wave 5 (orange) of wave 5 (grey) probably completed a larger wave 3 (pink). The wave 3 is showing overall a lot of momentum (strong AO bars).
  3. The bearish correction, even though price dropped a lot during the weekend, does not change the overall uptrend because price action is respecting the shallow 23.6 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels (blue boxes).
  4. The bounce at the Fibs is typical for a wave 4 (pink). Another correction could take place via an ABC (grey) pattern.
  5. The first breakout above the 21 ema zone is therefore risky because price could make a higher low first. But a 2nd breakout above the 21 ema zone and the 60-62.5k resistance zone followed by the top at 65k should create another strong push up later in April, May or June.
  6. The next targets are located at the round levels of $70k, $75k, and even $100k.
  7. A break below the support at 50k would certainly place the uptrend on hold and perhaps even indicate an early end.

On the 4 hour chart, we can see the bearish correction took price action from the top of the channel back down to the bottom of the channel and the long-term moving averages:

  1. A bullish bounce could indicate that the bearish decline is just a correction.
  2. The uptrend, however, might take a small pauze as price action creates a potential wave 4 (pink).
  3. A retest of the previous top and bearish bounce could indicate a wave B (grey). An ABC (orange) correction could emerge within wave B (grey).
  4. If there is a 5 wave pattern moving up, then the uptrend might be immediately taking place.
  5. A retest of the support trend line could take place within wave B (orange) and after wave C (grey).This could indicate the end of the correction.

Bitcoin 19.04.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Pi Cycle Top Indicator Just Called the BTC Top

In fact, it’s gone up over 500% since October alone. This was the last time BTCUSD came anywhere close to testing its 20-week moving average, which has been one of the most historically reliable indicators regarding where the number one cryptocurrency currently finds itself in the market cycle.

In a bull market, it will typically remain above this 20-week moving average, testing and holding it as support as it sets higher-high after higher-low. During the bear phase, it tends to bump up against this moving average as resistance, failing to break above it as it sets lower-low after lower-high.

This past weekend saw the crossing of another milestone; bitcoin closed above $60k on the weekly chart (on some markets) for the first time in its storied history. As these new highs continue to be made on less volume and without significant follow-through and considering how far the price has already gone since mid-2020, many are starting to scout for the top.

Pi Cycle Top Indicator

In fact, an indicator that’s designed to do precisely this has just flashed a top signal for this specific bitcoin market cycle. The Pi Cycle Top Indicator uses a 111-day moving average and a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average to predict market tops. When the 111-day moving average crosses above the 2×350-day moving average, it’s a signal that the top is in. The indicator takes its name from the fact that dividing 350 by 111 gives you 3.153, which is very close to Pi (3.142).

The image below plots the moving average crossovers mentioned above over a daily BTCUSD chart going all the way back to 2013. The vertical orange lines mark the points at which the two moving averages cross. They coincide with bitcoin’s last three peaks to within three days. On each occasion, a 60-80% correction ensued.

Pi Cycle Top Indicator plotted over daily BTCUSD chart, 2013-2021. Source: TradingView

The first two peaks on the above chart technically belong to the same bitcoin cycle as they occurred in April 2013 and November 2013, respectively. Bitcoin’s first halving event had only just taken place on November 28, 2012. Some of you will recall that the European debt crisis was in full swing during that first peak in April, specifically the bail-in of Cypriot banks. Then, the second peak marks the implosion of Mt. Gox, the biggest bitcoin exchange at the time.

It’s interesting to observe that the indicator still appears to work despite those first peaks taking place in a radically different crypto market than we have today. It misses a previous cycle top (not included in the above chart) due to there not being enough of a daily history to calculate the 2×350- day MA. As you can see on the far right of the chart, the two moving averages crossed again this past weekend. So, does this spell imminent doom for crypto holders, or will this time be different?

Back to the 20-Week Moving Average

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is certainly compelling; however, it does conflict with what the 20-week moving average appears to be suggesting. What’s noteworthy about the moves viewed on the weekly chart below is that we’ve yet to retest the 20-week MA once since the price went parabolic in late October 2020, signalling the end of the previous bear market. As you’ll observe below, previous bull markets have used this level as a gauge of the ongoing health of the rally, routinely taking profits down to it and then riding it up as support.

Weekly chart of BTCUSD with 20-period moving average. Source: TradingView

This is most noticeable in the extended rally we witnessed from 2016 to 2017. The price action retested that 20-week MA at least five times before surging on to its then all-time high at around $20k. From this perspective, the move looks like it’s only just getting started. Keep in mind that each week that goes by without significant consolidation sees the weekly MA rising even further, providing a higher cushion, if you will. It’s currently above $40k.

To Wrap Up

The fundamental picture is the same kind of thing we’re hearing in US equities. Stocks are overvalued, we’re seeing all sorts of technical divergences, but the broader macro picture suggests that they have further to go, and no one is willing to call a top just yet. Those same factors are also supporting crypto prices. Regardless of whether the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has it right or not, it’s still a long way down to that 20-week MA, and that would favour further upside for now.

by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst, HYCM

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Bitcoin and Ripple’s XRP – Weekly Technical Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 6.43% in the week ending 18th April. Reversing a 3.08% gain from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $56,172.0.

A bullish start to the week saw Bitcoin rise to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $64,829.0 before hitting reverse.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $64,631, Bitcoin slid to a Sunday intraweek low $50,500.0.

The sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $56,644.

Finding support at the 23.6% FIB of $50,473, Bitcoin moved back through to $56,000 levels to reduce the deficit. The first major support level at $56,644 pinned Bitcoin back on Sunday.

5 days in the red that included a 6.27% slide on Sunday delivered the downside for the week.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $57,167 pivot to support a run the first major resistance level at $63,834.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $60,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s new swing hi $64,829.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $70,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $71,496.

Failure to move through the $57,167 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 and the first major support level at $49,505 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$45,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $42,838.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.01% to $56,738.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to an early Monday morning low $55,709.0 before rising to a high $57,200.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

BTCUSD 190421 Daily Chart

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 4.67% in the week ending 18th April. Following on from a 113.1% surge from the previous week, Ripple’s XRP ended the week at $1.41371.

A bullish start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP rally to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $1.96598.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $1.6927 before sliding to a Sunday intraweek low $1.1500.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.8162, however, Ripple’s XRP found support to end the week at $1.41 levels.

Ripple’s XRP broke back through the 38.2% FIB to end the week in positive territory.

3-days in the green included a 22.32% breakout on Tuesday delivered the upside for the week. An 11.91% slide on Friday and an 8.33% loss on Sunday pared some of the gains, however.

For the week ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move through the pivot at $1.5099 and the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 to bring the first major resistance level at $1.8698 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.80 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s swing hi $1.96598 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test the second major resistance level at $2.3259.

Failure to move through the pivot at $1.5099 and the 23.6% FIB would bring the first major support level at $1.0538 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off in the week, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels and the 62% FIB of $0.8573. The second major support sits at $0.6939.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 2.57% to $1.45001. A mixed start to the week saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early Monday morning low $1.3600 before rising to a high $1.46.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

XRPUSD 190421 Daily Chart

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – April 19th, 2021

EOS

EOS fell 6.35% on Sunday. Following on from an 8.49% slide on Saturday, EOS ended the week up by 8.58% to $7.2996.

A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $7.9496 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $8.5691 slid to an early morning intraday low $5.7984.

The sell-off saw EOS fall through the first major support level at $7.3032 and the second major support level at $6.8203.

EOS also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $6.52 before finding support.

Steering clear of the third major support level at $5.5544, EOS bounced back to end the day at $7.2 levels.

The partial recovery saw EOS break back through the 23.6% FIB and the second major support level.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.42% to $7.2877. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $7.0454 before rising to a high $7.5766.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid the $7.0159 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $8.2333.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $8.00 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $9.00 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $9.1671.

A fall through the $7.0159 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $6.52 and the first major support level at $6.0821 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$5.50 levels. The second major support level sits at $4.8647.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $6.0821

First Major resistance Level: $8.2333

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 7.83% on Sunday. Following on from a 3.03% loss on Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week down by 6.52% to $0.5460.

A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.6014 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.6275, Stellar’s Lumen slid to an early morning intraday low $0.4590.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the day’s major support levels and through the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342.

Finding support in the afternoon, Stellar’s Lumen bounced back to end the day at $0.54 levels.

The partial recovery saw Stellar’s Lumen break back through the third major support level at $0.5017 and the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.79% to $0.5503. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.5362 before rising to a high $0.5623.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid the pivot level at $0.5355 and the 23.6% FIB to bring the first major resistance level at $0.6119 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen break back through to $0.60 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.65. The second major resistance level sits at $0.6778.

A fall through the $0.5355 pivot and the 23.6% FIB of $0.5342 would bring the first major support level at $0.4695 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.40 levels. the second major support level sits at $0.3931.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.4695

First Major Resistance Level: $0.6119

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5342

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4373

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2808

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX slid by 7.72% on Sunday. Following on from a 3.42% decline from Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week up by 17.91% to $0.1435.

A bullish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning intraday high $0.1577 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.1739, Tron’s TRX slid to an early morning intraday low $0.1206.

Tron’s TRX fell through the first major support level at $0.1446 and the second major support level at $0.1338.

The sell-off also saw Tron’s TRX slide through the 23.6% FIB of $0.1426 before finding support.

Through the afternoon, Tron’s TRX broke back through the major support levels and the 23.6% FIB to visit $0.145 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Tron’s TRX fall back through the first major support level at $0.1446 to end the day at sub-$0.144 levels.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 1.29% to $0.1454. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.1379 before rising to a high $0.1497.

While leaving the major support and resistance levels untested early on, Tron’s TRX briefly fell through the 23.6% FIB.

TRXUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a fall back through the 23.6% FIB and the $0.1406 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.1606 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.15 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.17 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.1777.

A fall back through the 23.6% FIB of $0.1426 and the $0.1406 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.1235 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.1035. The 38.2% FIB of $0.1167 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.1235

First Major Resistance Level: $0.1606

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1167

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0748

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Look Out: Inflation Impact on Earnings, Peloton Treadmills, Cryptocurrency Bubble Concerns to Drive Volatility

Corporate earnings will be the major focus in the week ahead, with investors especially zeroed-in on the impact of rising costs on margins. Investors will be looking for evidence that inflationary pressures are already having a negative influence on corporate profit margins.

CNBC is reporting that from Coca-Cola and IBM to Johnson & Johnson and Netflix, investors will hear from a broad swatch of corporate America. So far, with one week in, companies are beating earnings estimates by a wide margin of more than 84%, according to Refinitiv.

This three-month period is the first to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. Profit growth for the S&P 500 is a stunning 30.2% for the quarter so far, based on actual reports and estimates. That makes it the best three-month period since the third quarter of 2010, according to FactSet.

In other news, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) on Saturday warned consumers about the dangers of Peloton’s treadmill Tread+ after reports of multiple incidents of small children and a pet being injured beneath the machines.

The price of bitcoin tumbled over the weekend and was down as much as 19.5% from record highs posted by the popular cryptocurrency in the past week. The move comes after new concerns of a bubble in the cryptocurrency market.

US Regulators Warn Consumers on Dangers of Peloton’s Treadmill

Peloton shares could take a major hit on Monday after a warning from a key government safety agency.

“CPSC staff believes the Peloton Tread+ poses serious risks to children for abrasions, fractures, and death,” the safety regulator said in a statement, adding that consumers with children should stop using the product immediately.

Peloton in a response to the regulator’s statement said it was “troubled by the CPSC’s unilateral press release about the Peloton Tread+ because it is inaccurate and misleading.”

The company said there was no reason to stop using the Tread+, but children under 16 should not use the treadmill.

The regulator said it was aware of 39 incidents including one death and was investigating all known incidents related to the Peloton Tread+.

Bitcoin Tumbles from Recent High as Cryptocurrencies Take Weekend Hit

The price of Bitcoin dropped as low as $52,148.98 on Sunday morning, days after reaching an all-time high above $64,800. Ether and Dogecoin also saw their prices drop, following a week in which investors worried that the cryptocurrency market was in a bubble.

An unverified report on Twitter claimed that the U.S. Treasury Department could be looking to crack down on financial institutions for money laundering using cryptocurrency.

Coinbase shares could drop on the news since it could mean the cryptocurrency market could face tougher U.S. regulation. Last week, it became the largest cryptocurrency company to go public.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 19th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 6.29% on Sunday. Following on from a 2.27% decline on Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week down by 6.43% to $56,172.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $60,279.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $61,197, Bitcoin tumbled to an early morning intraday low $50,500.0.

The extended sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the major support levels

Finding support at the 23.6% FIB of $50,473, Bitcoin broke back through the third major resistance level at $55,104 to end the day at $56,100 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact in spite of the slide back to $50,500 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Sunday.

Crypto.com Coin tumbled by 15.14% to lead the way down, with Bitcoin Cash SV sliding by 12.39%.

Litecoin (-8.92%) and Ripple’s XRP (-8.28%) also saw heavy losses.

Binance Coin (-6.24%), Cardano’s ADA (-6.50%), Chainlink (-2.17%), Ethereum (-3.35%), and Polkadot (-5.14%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

It was also a mixed week for the majors in the week ending 18th April.

Binance Coin slid by 8.23%, with Crypto.com Coin falling by 5.08% to join Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish week for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV jumped by 25.25% to lead the way, with Polkadot rallying by 15.72%.

Cardano’s ADA (+1.32%), Ethereum (+4.23%), Litecoin (+8.68%), and Ripple’s XRP (+4.67%) also ended the week in positive territory.

In the week, the crypto total market rose to a Friday high $2,305bn before sliding to a Sunday low $1,755bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,019bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Saturday low 51.37%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.52%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.81% to $56,625.1. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $55,709.0 before rising to a high $56,666.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Polkadot (-0.77%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.55%) saw red to buck the trend early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was up by 3.69% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $55,650 to bring the first major resistance level at $60,801 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $60,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $60,279.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $65,429.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $55,650 pivot would bring the first major support level at $51,022 and the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$50,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $45,871.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.35% on Sunday. Following on from a 4.45% decline on Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 4.23% to $2,241.45.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $2,341.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,439, Ethereum slid to an early morning intraday low $2,000.00.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,258 and the second major support level at $2,197.

Finding support at the third major support level at $2,016, Ethereum bounced back to end the day at $2,200 levels.

The partial recovery saw Ethereum break back through the second major support level at $2,197.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.60% to $2,228.01. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,254.00 before falling to a low $2,205.01.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $2,194 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,388.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $2,341.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,535.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $2,194 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,047 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the second major support level at $1,853. The 23.6% FIB of $1,966 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,047

Pivot Level: $2,194

First Major Resistance Level: $2,388

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 8.92% on Sunday.  Following on from a 2.51% fall from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week up by 8.68% to $274.20.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $305.33 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $325, Litecoin slid to an early morning intraday low $241.09.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $287 and the second major support level at $273.

More significantly, Litecoin also tumbled through the 23.6% FIB of $262.

Finding late morning support, Litecoin moved back through the 23.6% FIB and the second major support level to end the day at $274 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.12% to $271.13. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $275.62 before falling to a low $267.69.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move back the $274 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $306.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $305.33 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a bounce back, Litecoin could test resistance at $320 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $338.

Failure to move back through the $274 pivot level would bring the 23.6% FIB of $262 and the first major support level at $242 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the the second major support level at $209. The 38.2% FIB of $217 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $242

Pivot Level: $274

First Major Resistance Level: $306

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 8.28% on Sunday. Following a 0.62% decline from Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week up by 4.67% to $1.41371.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.56714 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.6802, Ripple’s XRP slid to an early morning intraday low $1.15000.

Ripple’s XRP slid through the day’s major support levels before finding support.

More significantly, Ripple’s XRP also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of sub-$1.00 levels, Ripple’s XRP bounced back to end the day at $1.41 levels.

The partial recovery had seen Ripple’s XRP break back through the third major support level at $1.1848 and the second major support level at $1.3960.

Ripple’s XRP also broke back through the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 2.29% to $1.38138. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $1.43776 before falling to a low $1.36000.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.6039 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $1.80 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.7941.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807 and the first major support level at $1.1868 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.9598.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.1868

Pivot Level: $1.3770

First Major resistance Level: $1.6039

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 18th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.27% on Saturday. Following on from a 2.98% decline on Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $59,927.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $62,450.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $63,226, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $59,662.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $59,711 before briefly revisiting $60,900 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Bitcoin fall back to end the day at sub-$60,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Polkadot rallied by 3.87% to lead the way, with Binance Coin rising by 1.08%.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV slid by 10.95% to lead the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-3.18%), Chainlink (-4.89%), Ethereum (-4.45%), and Litecoin (-2.51%) also struggled.

Crypto.com Coin (-0.08%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.62%) saw modest losses on the day, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Friday high $2,305bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,136bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Saturday low 51.38%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.85%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.46% to $60,205.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $59,934.0 before rising to a high $60,279.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bullish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 1.42% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 180421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the pivot level at $60,680 to bring the first major resistance level at $61,697 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $61,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Saturday’s high $62,450.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $63,468.

Failure to move through the $60,680 pivot would bring the first major support level at $58,909 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$58,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $57,892.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 17th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.98% on Friday. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $61,322.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $63,520.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $64,027, Bitcoin slid to a late morning intraday low $60,005.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $62,182 and the second major support level at $61,169.

Finding afternoon support, Bitcoin broke back through the second major support level to revisit $62,000 levels before easing back.

In spite of the pullback, Bitcoin avoided a fall back through the second major support level late in the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Bitcoin Cash SV surged by 17.73% to lead the way, with Litecoin rallying by 7.89%.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% to lead the way down

Binance Coin (-6.15%), Cardano’s ADA (-4.51%), and Ethereum (-3.59%) also struggled.

Chainlink (-1.40%), Crypto.com Coin (-0.97%), and Polkadot (-1.84%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Friday high $2,307bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,177bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Friday low 51.50%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.59%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.25% to $61,167.3. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $61,675.0 before falling to a low $61,157.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-2.47%) and Crypto.com Coin (-0.64%) joined Bitcoin in the red to buck the early trend.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.09% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through the pivot level at $61,616 to bring the first major resistance level at $63,226 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $63,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $63,520.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $65,131.

Failure to move back through the $61,616 pivot would bring the first major support level at $59,711 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $58,101.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 17th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.59% on Friday. Reversing a 3.49% gain from Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,426.64.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $2,548.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,576, Ethereum slid to an early afternoon intraday low $2,307.21.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,430 and the second major support level at $2,343.

Steering clear of sub-$2,300 levels, Ethereum broke back through the major support levels before a late pullback.

The pullback saw Ethereum fall back through the first major support level to end the day at $2,426 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.40% to $2,460.53. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $2,426.63 to a high $2,460.53.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2,427 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,547.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s new swing hi $2,548.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,700 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,668.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $2,427 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,307 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,187.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,307

Pivot Level: $2,427

First Major Resistance Level: $2,547

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 7.89% on Friday. Following on from a 2.67% gain from Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $308.75.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $297.00 before hitting reverse.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $296 before sliding to an early afternoon intraday low $266.34.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $271 before rallying to a late intraday high and a new swing hi $319.94.

Litecoin broke back through the first major resistance level and broke through the second major resistance level at $306.

A late pullback, however, saw Litecoin briefly fall back through the second major resistance level before wrapping up the day at $308 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.98% to $317.94. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rally from an early morning low $308.76 to a high $318.67.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $330.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s swing hi $319.94.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test resistance at $350 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $352.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $277 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $250. The second major support level sits at $245.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $277

Pivot Level: $298

First Major Resistance Level: $330

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% on Friday. Following on from a 4.17% decline on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.54981.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.80892 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.8777, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $1.42051.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $1.6468 and the second major support level at $1.5343.

Steering clear of sub-$1.40 levels, Ripple’s XRP revisited $1.75 levels before falling back into the deep red.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall back through the first major support level to end the day at sub-$1.60 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.86% to $1.56312. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $1.5390 before rising to a high $1.56443.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $1.5931 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.7657 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from $1.75 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $1.80 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $2.00 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.9815.

Failure to move through the $1.5941 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the first major support level at $1.3772 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.30 levels. The second major support level sits at $1.2047.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.3772

Pivot Level: $1.5931

First Major resistance Level: $1.7657

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

ETH/USD Shows Pullback in Strong Bullish Impulse and Large Uptrend

Ethereum (ETH/USD) continued with the uptrend and made another higher high as expected. Price action has now reached the first -27.2% Fibonacci target.

Can the uptrend continue higher? And if so, what are the next targets?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

ETH 16.04.2021 daily chart

The ETH/USD completed a bearish ABC (grey) pattern in wave 4 (pink) after bouncing at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (blue box):

  1. Price action has reached the first -27.2% Fibonacci target (smaller blue box).
  2. The momentum is very strong because of these reasons:
    1. Daily candles are showing an impulse with a majority of large bullish candles closing near the daily high.
    2. The HMA 20 has a bullish angle with price action above it.
    3. The momentum indicator confirms that 10 daily candles have not hit the 21 ema zone (green box). Usually the momentum continues (see green boxes before) higher.
    4. The 21 ema zone has a steep angle and all of the moving averages are bullishly aligned with large spaces between the MAs.
  3. Considering the strong momentum, an immediate continuation has the highest probability (blue arrow).
  4. The next targets are at the -61.8% Fibonacci level around $2800 and the round $3000 level.
  5. The upside is probably part of multiple wave 3 patterns (purple/red).

On the 1 hour chart, price has been above the 21 ema for more than 1 week now. The bullish bounce at the 144-233 ema zone on the left of the chart was followed by another round of buying:

  1. The wave patterns suggest an ongoing wave 3 (grey) considering the strong bullish momentum.
  2. The current pullback respected the 38.2% Fibonacci of the shallow price swing. This could be a wave A (green) of a larger ABC (green) in wave 4 (blue).
  3. The 1st or 2nd breakout above the 21 ema zone (green arrow) could confirm the uptrend continuation.
  4. The uptrend certainly remains strong as long as price action remains above the 144-233 ema long-term MA.
  5. This wave outlook is confirmed if there are bullish bounces at the support zone and max 50% Fib. A break below the 50% Fib places it on hold (yellow) and a deeper retrace invalidates it (red).

Ethereum 16.04.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 16th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 0.46% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 0.95% decline from Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $63,196.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to a late morning intraday low $62,000.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $61,204, Bitcoin struck a late intraday high $63,845.0.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $64,727, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$63,200 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Thursday.

Ripple’s XRP slid by 4.17% to lead the way down

Binance Coin (-1.36%) and Polkadot (-0.02%) also saw red to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV rallied by 12.38% to lead the way.

Chainlink (+3.18%), Crypto.com Coin (+3.20%), Ethereum (+3.49%), and Litecoin (+2.67%) also made solid gains.

Cardano’s ADA (+1.93%) and Polkadot (+1.87%) and trailed the front runners, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Wednesday high $2,259bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,214bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Thursday low 52.92%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 53.53%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin up by 0.28% to $63,5.037. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $63,083.2 before rising to a high $63,417.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Binance Coin (-0.47%), Cardano’s ADA (-0.06%), and Polkadot (-0.05%) saw red early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 1.68% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 160421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $63,014 to bring the first major resistance level at $64,027 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $64,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $64,859.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $63,014 pivot would bring the first major support level at $62,182 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $61,169.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 16th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.49% on Thursday. Following on from a 5.76% gain on Wednesday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,517.03.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $2,401.25 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,328, Ethereum rallied to a final hour intraday high and a new swing hi $2,546.82.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $2,492 before easing back.

Coming within range of the second major resistance level at $2,551, Ethereum slipped back to end the day at $2,517 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.21% to $2,522.26. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $2,517.03 to a high $2,527.12.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 160421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $2,488 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,576.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Thursday’s new swing hi $2,546.82.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $2,600 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,700 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,634.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $2,488 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,430 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level at $2,343 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,430

Pivot Level: $2,488

First Major Resistance Level: $2,576

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,975

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,605

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.67% on Thursday. Following on from a 4.14% gain on Wednesday, Litecoin ended the day at $286.18.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $282.80 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the major resistance levels, Litecoin fell to a late morning intraday low $266.01.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $262, Litecoin rallied to a final hour intraday high and a new swing hi $291.25.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $289 before falling back to end the day at $286 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 0.17% to $286.68. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise from an early morning low $286.18 to a high $288.39.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 160421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $281 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $296.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Thursday’s swing hi $291.25.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $300 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test resistance at $315 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $306.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $281 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $271 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer well clear of the second major support level at $256.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $271

Pivot Level: $281

First Major Resistance Level: $296

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $229

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $190

62% FIB Retracement Level: $127

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 4.17% on Thursday. Reversing a 2.30% rise from Wednesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.75937.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.88353 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2.0210, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $1.65261.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $1.6004, Ripple’s XRP revisited $1.84 levels before falling back into the red.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.51% to $1.76836. A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise from an early morning low $1.75953 to a high $1.78119.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 160421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall back through the $1.7652 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.8777 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.80 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $2.00 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.9961.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $1.7652 pivot would bring the first major support level at $1.6468 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426. The second major support level sits at $1.5343.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.6468

Pivot Level: $1.7652

First Major resistance Level: $1.8777

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Bitcoin Should Rally in an Overlapping Fashion to Around $72K

Early last week, I showed, using the Elliott Waves (EWP), “I prefer the larger ending diagonal (ED). EDs are hard to forecast price structures as they consist of five waves, which [in turn] most often are comprised of three overlapping waves to the upside and downside. BTC is most likely in wave-iii, subdividing into three (a, b, c) waves … [with] wave-c to ideally $66050-72175. … A daily close back above last week’s high ($60062) will favor the upside diagonal. A daily close below $53900 is needed to shift the odds in favor of the Bearish option (a diagonal to the downside).

The above “if-then” scenario is the power and beauty of the EWP as it allows for straightforward elimination of options and increases one’s trading success’ odds. BTC has rallied over the last nine days since my last update. With the additional available price data, I know the ED pattern to the upside is operable: blue lines in Figure 1 below, as so far BTC has done nothing to invalidate it. Please compare to the ED example inserted in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Bitcoin daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

The Contracting Diagonal pattern suggests a choppy rally to around $72K.

As said before, EDs are choppy, terminal patterns, and the recent price action supports this notion as BTC is barely above its March 13 wave-i top of $61749. Because in contracting diagonals the 3rd wave cannot be longer than the 1st wave I find BTC should ideally top at a maximum of $69K. This level corresponds with the (red) wave-iii=i relationship, the (green) 1.382x extension for minor-c of wave-iii, and the (grey) c=a extension of grey minute-c of minor wave-c, exemplifying the fractal and complex nature of the internal waves of a contracting ending diagonal. Once wave-iii completes, wave-iv should drop to around the lower blue trend line, which should be around $62K. (Red) wave-v of (black) wave-5 of an even larger (blue) wave-III will target about $72K. From there, BTC should then fall back to the beginning of the ED pattern to complete wave-IV: the low $50Ks to the low $40Ks. Only then is BTC, IMHO, ready to set up for a rally into the six digits: blue wave-V.

What does it take to invalidate my preferred POV? A first warning will be on a daily close below $59K, with a “lights out” on a daily close below $55355. Why? Because if BTC drops that low from current levels, the ED pattern as shown will not complete. Please remember that BTC is, IMHO, in a larger-degree terminal pattern, and the price action over the next few weeks will not be as easy to trade, track and forecast as it was before. Thus, one has to “anticipate, monitor, and adjust” to allow for safe trading now more than ever.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Break Out: Where’s The Follow through?

Bitcoin pushed all time highs to 65K and is now showing signs of indecision. While there is no sell signal in place at the moment, here are some important considerations when it comes to judging momentum follow through. This is especially important if you bought into the recent break out.

The 61300 to 64250 area is another reversal zone relative to Bitcoin’s recent price structure. Price is now hesitating in this zone and a break of 61300 would constitute a new sell signal in terms of our swing trade strategy.

This sell signal is not what you want to see develop after such a break out. It can be met with more dramatic selling pressure thanks to all of the new longs lured into the market during the break out.

The first support is now around the 58K area (where price spent a lot of time lingering), and the second support is still around the 50K area. The next resistance is still around 66K (which was almost reached in the recent break out).

It is also possible to see a trend continuation pattern develop over the next day or so IF the 61300 low is NOT taken out. In the current market environment, which has been lacking any significant retracements, this patterns have been very common. This would be a good sign if you are still long.

Break outs are tough trades to take because of their highly random nature. The key to making such a strategy work is to be able to exit the trade quickly if the break out turns out to be false. Many small losses can accumulate this way, but that idea is to catch the broader move when one follows through.

If you would like to know more about how our swing trade strategy works, visit: https://greenbridgeinvesting.com/pricing

We offter a 7 day free trial to our signal service, and a chatroom.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – April 15th, 2021

EOS

EOS rose by 3.89% on Wednesday. Following on from a 14.26% rally on Tuesday, EOS ended the day at $7.6717.

A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $8.1288 before hitting reverse.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $7.8193 before sliding to an early afternoon intraday low $7.0261.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $6.7223, EOS moved back through to $7.78 levels to deliver the upside on the day.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 3.03% to $7.4395. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $7.9858 before falling to a low $7.4286.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOSUSD 150421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move back through the $7.6089 pivot level to support another run at the first major resistance level at $8.1916.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Wednesday’s high $8.1288.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $8.20 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $9.00 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $8.7116.

Failure to move back through the $7.6089 pivot would bring the first major support level at $7.0889 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $6.5200. The second major support level sits at $6.5062.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $7.0889

First Major resistance Level: $8.1916

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen fell by 3.35% on Wednesday. Partially reversing an 11.35% rally from Tuesday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.6354.

A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rally to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $0.6908 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.7020, Stellar’s Lumen slid to an early afternoon intraday low $0.5921.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the first major support level at $0.5947 before a partial recovery to $0.63 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 3.30% to $0.6144. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.6366 before falling to a low $0.6142.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 150421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move back through the pivot level at $0.6394 to bring the first major resistance level at $0.6868 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen break out from $0.65 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s swing hi $0.6908 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.70. The second major resistance level sits at $0.7381.

Failure to move back through the $0.6394 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.5881 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.5407.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.5881

First Major Resistance Level: $0.6868

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5342

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4373

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2808

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX fell by 3.96% on Wednesday. Partially reversing a 13.16% rally from Tuesday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.1405.

A bullish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $0.1570 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.1594, Tron’s TRX slid to an early afternoon intraday low $0.1313.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1299, Tron’s TRX revisited $0.1425 levels before easing back.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 2.67% to $0.1367. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.1421 before falling to a low $0.1360.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 150421 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move back through the $0.1429 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.1546 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.15 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s new swing hi $0.1570 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.165 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.1686.

Failure to move back through the $0.1429 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.1289 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.1172. The 23.6% FIB of $0.1216 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.1289

First Major Resistance Level: $0.1546

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1216

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0997

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0644

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 15th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 5.76% on Wednesday. Following on from a 7.57% rally on Tuesday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,432.54.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $2,283.26 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,185, Ethereum surged to a final hour intraday high and a new swing hi $2,446.91.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $2,366 and the second major resistance level at $2,432 before easing back.

While easing back, Ethereum managed to find support at the second major resistance level at $2,432.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.35% to $2,440.98. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $2,432.12 to a new swing hi $2,449.99.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 150421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $2,388 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,492.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from this morning’s new swing hi $2,449.99.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $2,500 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,600 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,551.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $2,388 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,328 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level at $2,224 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,328

Pivot Level: $2,388

First Major Resistance Level: $2,492

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,889

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,543

62% FIB Retracement Level: $985

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 4.14% on Wednesday. Following on from a 9.56% rally on Tuesday, Litecoin ended the day at $278.85.

A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $283.2 before hitting reverse.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $279 before falling to an early afternoon intraday low $255.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $250, Litecoin briefly broke back through the first major resistance level before falling back to sub-$279 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 0.25% to $279.54. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise from an early morning low $278.75 to a high $282.80.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 150421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $273 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $289.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Wednesday’s swing hi $283.20.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $290 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test the second major resistance level at $300.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $273 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $262 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer well clear of the second major support level at $245.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $262

Pivot Level: $273

First Major Resistance Level: $289

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $222

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $185

62% FIB Retracement Level: $124

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 2.30% on Wednesday. Following on from a 22.24% jump on Tuesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.83817.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $1.96598 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.9839, Ripple’s XRP slid to an early afternoon intraday low $1.5454.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $1.5132, Ripple’s XRP recovered to end the day at $1.83 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.84% to $1.82281. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $1.88353 before falling to a low $1.82230.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 150421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $1.7832 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $2.0210 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Wednesday’s new swing hi $1.96598.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $2.20 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2.2038.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $1.7832 pivot would bring the first major support level at $1.6004 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear the second major support level at $1.3626. The 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.6004

Pivot Level: $1.7832

First Major resistance Level: $2.0210

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Investors’ Appetite for Risk Tames U.S Dollar Bulls

The greenback experienced intense selling pressures in the past few hours over recent reports revealing inflation rate at the U.S economy posted record gains yet failed to change the U.S Federal Reserve’s stance on keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels.

Data revealed that March inflation readings surpassed the U.S Federal Reserve target by 1.0%, largely attributed to the ongoing quantitative easing programs and strong rebound of economic activities as U.S. consumer prices rallied by the most in more than 8-1/2 years.

The DXY index used in tracking the U.S dollar strength against major currencies was navigating below the 92.00 resistance area with investors shunning the greenback for Crypto assets and long-awaited listing of Coinbase, the world’s most valuable crypto exchange makes its debut on the Nasdaq today.

Dollar bears are pushing the greenback to a three-week low with recent data pointing to a well-telegraphed pattern on rising inflation, yet failed to change the US Federal Reserve’s status quo, and growing appetite for risk weighed deeply on the safe-haven currency.

Consequently, recent price actions suggest currency traders are deferring the Fed’s call on a delay in tightening monetary supply rather than sooner, hinting DXY bulls face an enormous task breaking above 92.0 in the near term as inflation fears assuages and treasury yields plunge.

However, currency traders remain upbeat about the world’s biggest economy thanks to the fast pace of COVID-19 vaccination rollouts which has helped in boosting social mobility, thereby pointing that DXY Bulls will hold comfortably hold the baseline around its yearly lows of 89.165 index points, without much difficulty.

Dollar bears will also keep an eye on the US exceptionalism theme that has helped the greenbacks upsides in early 2021 after some Fed officials indicated more of such data surprises could lead to bond tapering later in the year.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – April 14th, 2021

EOS

EOS rallied by 14.26% on Tuesday. Reversing a 3.71% loss from Monday, EOS ended the day at $7.3862.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning intraday low $6.4915 before making a move.

While steering clear of the first major support level at $6.2132, EOS fell through the 23.6% FIB of $6.5200.

Finding early support, however, EOS broke back through the 23.6% FIB to a late afternoon intraday high $7.5885.

EOS also broke through the first major resistance level at $6.8055 and the second major resistance level at $7.1372.

While easing back late in the day, EOS avoided the second major resistance level to wrap up the day at $7.38 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 5.14% to $7.7655. A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise from an early morning low $7.3235 to a high $7.9826.

EOS tested the first major resistance level at $7.8193 early on.

EOSUSD 140421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid the $7.1554 pivot level to support another run at the first major resistance level at $7.8193.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $7.80 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $8.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $8.50 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $8.2524.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $7.1554 pivot would bring the first major support level at $6.7223 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of the second major support level at $6.0584. The 23.6% FIB of $6.5200 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $6.7223

First Major resistance Level: $7.8193

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rallied by 11.35% on Tuesday. Following on from a 1.11% gain on Monday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.6574.

A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning intraday low $0.5766 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.5686, Stellar’s Lumen rallied to a late intraday high and a new swing hi $0.6839.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the day’s major resistance levels before a pullback to $0.637 levels.

The pullback saw Stellar’s Lumen fall back through the third major resistance level at $0.6713 to end the day at $0.65 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 0.83% to $0.6629. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.6721 before falling to a low $0.6549.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 140421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid the pivot level at $0.6393 to bring the first major resistance level at $0.7020 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen break out from Tuesday’s new swing hi $0.6839.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.75. The second major resistance level sits at $0.7466.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.6393 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.5947 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer well clear of the second major support level at $0.5320.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.5947

First Major Resistance Level: $0.7020

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5289

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4331

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2781

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rallied by 13.16% on Tuesday. Following on from a 6.16% gain on Monday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.1462.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning intraday low $0.1267 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1207, Tron’s TRX rallied to a late intraday high and a new swing hi $0.1562.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.1377 and the second major resistance level at $0.1463.

Falling short of $0.16 levels, Tron’s TRX slipped back through the second major resistance level to end the day at $0.1462.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 2.92% to $0.1505. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.1426 before rising to a high $0.1552.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 140421 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX need to avoid a fall through the $0.1430 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.1594 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out from Tuesday’s new swing hi $0.1562.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $0.16 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.18 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.1725.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.1430 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.1299 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.1123. The 23.6% FIB of $0.1210 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.1299

First Major Resistance Level: $0.1594

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1210

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0992

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0641

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 14th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 6.09% on Tuesday. Reversing a 0.26% decline from Monday, Bitcoin ended the day at $63,537.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $59,859.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $59,131, Bitcoin surged to a final hour intraday high and a new swing hi $63,555.0.

Bitcoin broke through first major resistance level at $60,977 and the second major resistance level at $62,081.

While falling short of the third major resistance level at $63,927, Bitcoin held on to close out the day at $63,500 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $63,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $26,750 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Tuesday.

Binance Coin slid by 7.60%, with Polkadot falling by 0.07% to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Ripple’s XRP jumped by 22.24% to lead the way, with Bitcoin Cash SV rallying by 12.66%.

Cardano’s ADA (+7.50%), Chainlink (+7.22%), Crypto.com Coin (+7.00%), Ethereum (+7.57%), and Litecoin (+8.56%) also made solid gains.

Early in the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Tuesday high $2,195bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,146bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Tuesday low 54.27%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 55.22%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin down by 0.42% to $63,270.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high and a new swing hi $63,732.0 before falling to a low $63,166.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.40%), Ethereum (-0.08%), and Polkadot (-0.48%) also saw red early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 2.97% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 140421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $62,317 to bring the first major resistance level at $64,775 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from this morning’s new swing hi $63,732.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $65,000 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $68,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $66,013.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $62,317 pivot would bring the first major support level at $61,079 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer well clear of sub-$60,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $58,621.