ADA Price Prediction: Mainnet Project Updates Leaves Sub-$0.420 in View

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, cardano (ADA) saw red for a second consecutive day to end the day at $0.430.
  • There were no updates from Input Output HK to provide direction, leaving the bearish sentiment from the broader crypto market to weigh.
  • The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.420 remains in play.

On Saturday, ADA fell by 1.15%. Following a 0.68% decline on Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.430, the lowest day’s end price since August 28.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.436. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.441, ADA slid to a late afternoon low of $0.425. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.429 before a partial recovery to $0.430.

The sixth day in the red from eight sessions saw ADA near the August low of $0.424 before the return to $0.430.

Crypto Market Forces Overshadow Cardano Mainnet Updates

On Friday, US economic indicators vindicated the Fed’s aggressive policy goals to bring inflation to target. Fed fear resurfaced at the end of the week, with US inflationary pressures picking up in August. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July.

Investor jitters from Friday’s numbers led to a broader crypto market pullback. Two consecutive days in the red left the market cap down $12.9 billion to $898.5 billion. However, the losses were modest, suggesting some investor resilience.

Following the September 22 Vasil hard fork, Input Output HK and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson have delivered positive updates. However, an anticipated influx of projects has yet to materialize, leaving ADA on the defensive.

According to Input Output HK, the number of projects launched on the Cardano increased by one to 100 in the week ending September 30. Additionally, 1,113 projects are building on Cardano, up by six from the previous week.

Following the Vasil hard fork, Hoskinson talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork. A surge in projects on the Cardano mainnet would deliver an ADA breakout and a return to $0.50.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.23% to $0.431. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.430 to a high of $0.433.

ADA finds early support.
ADAUSD 021022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA has to avoid a fall through the $0.431 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.435 and the Saturday high of $0.436. A marked shift in investor sentiment would be needed to support a return to $0.435.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.439 and $0.440 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.447.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.427 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.425 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.423. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.415. In the case of an extended sell-off, a fall through the August low of $0.424 would bring sub-$0.420 into play.

ADA resistance levels in play above the pivot.
ADAUSD 021022 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.441. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through R1 ($0.435) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.439) and the 50-day EMA ($0.441). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.462. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 021022 4-Hourly Chart

XRP Price Action Turns Bearish as Court Action Pauses for the Weekend

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, XRP fell by 1.03%. Following a 1.42% loss on Friday, XRP ended the day at $0.47516.
  • Investors continued to lock in profits following Thursday’s SEC v Ripple Court ruling in favor of Ripple.
  • However, the technical indicators remain bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.55.

On Saturday, XRP fell by 1.03%. Following a 1.42% loss on Friday, XRP ended the day at $0.47516.

A choppy start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.46773. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4636, XRP rose to a late afternoon high of $0.48580. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4980, XRP fell back to end the day at sub-$0.48.

XRP tracked the broader crypto market into negative territory, with US inflation from Friday driving fed fear to leave the crypto market in negative territory. Investor sentiment toward the latest Court ruling in the SEC v Ripple saga took a back seat going into the weekend.

Investors Await the SEC’s Next Move after 7 Failed Attempts

Following Thursday’s surprise Court ruling, investors now await the SEC’s next strategic move to shield William Hinman’s speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

Last Thursday, Judge Torres overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege. The SEC had made at least seven attempts to shield the documents under the attorney-client privilege.

Despite numerous Court orders to turn over the documents, the SEC has yet to comply with Court orders. Yet, despite the Court orders, the SEC remains defiant.

In a famous 2018 speech, former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

The documents that the SEC is trying to shield may have damaging content and have led to Hinman becoming a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. Having come this far, investors now expect the SEC to play its next card.

In a series of tweets, defense attorney James Filan shared his thoughts on the SEC’s options. These included,

  • Ask Judge Torres to reconsider her overruling the SEC objection.
  • Request the Court to certify an appeal of the Court decision.
  • Go to the Court of Appeals on a Petition for Writ of Mandamus.
  • All the above.

The worst-case scenario would likely weigh on XRP. A further extension to the ongoing case could see XRP fall back toward $0.40. In the week ahead, Court filings from the SEC will need monitoring.

Overnight, there were no updates for investors to consider, leaving XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.15% to $0.47466. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.47705 before falling to a low of $0.47446.

XRP range-bound early on
XRPUSD 021022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4762 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4847 and the Saturday high of $0.4858. Investors will look out for any updates from the SEC and the Defendants. Talk of an SEC appeal would likely limit the upside.

However, in the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4943 and $0.50. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5124.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4667 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.46 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4582.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4401.

XRP support levels in play below the pivot.
XRPUSD 021022 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.46046. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA. The signals were XRP price positive.

An XRP hold above the 50-day EMA ($0.46046) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4847) to target R2 ($0.4943). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.46046) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.4667) and the 100-day EMA ($0.43708). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.40676.

EMAs bullish.
XRPUSD 021022 4-Hourly Chart

BTC Fear & Greed Index Creeps Higher on BTC Range-Bound Session

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.59% to end the day at $19,316.
  • US inflation figures from Friday, Fed Fear, and the NASDAQ’s worst losing streak since 2008 weighed.
  • Despite the bearish session, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 24/100.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.59%. Following a 0.81% fall from Friday, BTC ended the day at $19,316.

Following a 38.9% loss from Q3, BTC traded within a tight range and avoided sub-$19,000 for the second time in twelve sessions.

A mixed start to the session saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,485. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,223, BTC fell to a late morning low of $19,157. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,996, BTC ended the day at $19,316.

Investor sentiment toward inflation, Fed monetary policy, and the economic outlook left BTC on the back foot. The influence of US economic indicators and Fed monetary policy on the crypto market supported the ongoing correlation with the NASDAQ 100.

NASDAQ correlation.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 021022 Daily Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Rises on Range-Bound BTC Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 24/100. A bearish BTC session, fueled by inflation and Fed fear, led BTC into the red. However, BTC avoided sub-$19,000, with a range-bound session delivering hope of a bottoming out.

Friday’s US inflation figures tested investor resilience going into the weekend. However, investors have yet to jump ship, with investor resilience reflected in the Index moves. This morning’s increase left the Index on the border of the Fear zone.

In recent weeks, avoiding sub-20/100 has been the key. The bears will be eying a fall to sub-20/100 to signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000. By contrast, the bulls will look for an Index return to 40/100 to support a move toward $25,000.

Fear & Greed Index approaches the Fear zone.
Fear & Greed 021022

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.02% to $19,312. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,303 before rising to a high of $19,325.

BTC range-bound early on.
BTCUSD 021022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,319 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,482 and resistance at $19,500. A move through the Saturday high of $19,485 would signal a bullish session.

In the case of another extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,647 and target the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $19,975.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,154 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,991 will likely limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,663.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 021022 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,362.

The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.

A move through the 50-day ($19,362) EMA would give the bulls a run at R1 ($19,482) and the 100-day EMA ($19,506). The 200-day EMA sits at $19,965. However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,362) would give the bears a run at S1 ($19,154) and sub-$19,000.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 021022 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – Solana (SOL) Led the Top Ten South

Key Insights:

  • It was a bearish Saturday for the crypto top ten, with solana (SOL) leading the way down.
  • There were no external market forces to influence, leaving Friday’s US inflation figures and the NASDAQ’s worst losing streak since 2008 to resonate.
  • The bearish session left the crypto market cap down $7.1 billion to $898.5 billion.

It was a bearish Saturday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE and SOL led the way down. However, despite the bearish session, BTC avoided sub-$19,000 for just the second time in twelve sessions.

On Friday, US economic indicators supported the Fed’s aggressive policy goals to curb inflation and return inflation to target. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July.

Hawkish Fed chatter and the Friday numbers from the US remained crypto market negatives on Saturday. The influence from the US also supported the ongoing crypto correlation with the NASDAQ 100.

The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.51% to end the Q3 with a 4.11% loss. More importantly, the NASDAQ 100 extended its quarterly losing streak to three, its worst run since 2008.

NASDAQ correlation
Total Market Cap 021022 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Starts the Fourth Quarter on a Bearish Footing

On Saturday, the crypto market rose to an early high of $909.6 billion before an extended decline to a late low of $891.5 billion. Despite the bearish session, the loss was modest by more recent standards.

The crypto market cap fell by $7.1 billion to $898.5 billion.

With the US markets closed through the weekend, the crypto market may take its cues from the NASDAQ 100 Mini in the final hour (UTC). A bearish start to the Monday session would test crypto investor resilience.

Crypto market has bearish first session of the quarter.
Total Market Cap 021022 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bearish Saturday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE and SOL led the way down, with losses of 2.42% and 1.75%, respectively, with ADA (-1.15%), ETH (-1.29%), and XRP (-1.03%) also struggling.

BNB (-0.67%) and BTC (-0.59%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Reserve Rights (RSR) and Terra Classic (LUNC) led the way, rallying by X% and U%, respectively, with stellar’s lumen (XLM) gaining X%.

However, Pancake Swap (CAKE), Helium (HNT), and Lido DAO (LDO) led the way down. CAKE and HNT slid by X% and Y%, respectively, with LDO falling by X%.

24-Hour Crypto Liquidations Slide in Range-Bound Session

Over 24 hours, total liquidations fell below normal levels, with the crypto market moving within a tight range at the start of the quarter. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $29.26 million, down from $92.79 million on Saturday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 14,570 versus 28,614 on Saturday morning. Liquidations were down over four and twelve hours while up for the final hour of the day (UTC).

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $23.11 million, down from $66.05 million on Saturday morning, with four-hour liquidations down from $14.90 million to $4.25 million. However, one-hour liquidations were up from $0.563 million to $1.83 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market sees bearish final hour.
Total Market Cap 021022 Hourly Chart

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH Avoids the Deep Red

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Monday to Friday, with the total crypto market cap rising by $17.8 billion to $905.6 billion.
  • However, US economic indicators and Fed fear pegged the crypto market back from more meaningful gains.
  • Technical indicators are bearish, with uncertainty about the economic outlook a headwind.

Monday to Friday, the crypto market cap rose by $17.4 billion to $905.6 billion. The upside follows two consecutive weekly losses, though the market cap continued to slip to sub-$900 billion.

Three sessions in positive territory from five supported the upswing. Market volatility across the FX and equity markets delivered crypto market support ahead of the Friday pullback.

The GBP/USD pair fell to an all-time low of $1.03565 as investors responded to the UK government’s mini-budget and the Bank of England’s need to intervene. Dollar strength put other currencies under pressure, with fears of a global economic recession adding to the FX market vol.

However, a pickup in US inflationary pressure weighed on the crypto market on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July, sending riskier assets into the red.

For the week, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 2.69%, with the crypto market enjoying a further decoupling from the US equity markets. Significantly, the NASDAQ fell for a third consecutive quarter, its worst losing streak since the global financial crisis.

NASDAQ correlation.
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 011022

Also contributing to the upswing in the crypto total market cap were favorable updates from the SEC v Ripple (XRP) case.

On Thursday, the Court overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

The outcome of the SEC v Ripple case will impact XRP and the broader crypto market. A Ripple victory could see the onus of regulating the crypto market fall with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The crypto market favors the CFTC over the SEC.

market cap avoids the red despite the NASDAQ tumble.
Crypto Market Cap Daily Chart 011022

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Friday, ADA was down 2.47% to 0.435. The Vasil hard fork failed to support, with ADA down 4.19% for September and 5.43% for Q3.

ADA fell short of $0.50, with the markets now looking for a sharp increase in projects on the Cardano network. Compared with the previous week, the rise in the number of projects was modest, leaving ADA on the back foot.

Early in the week, ADA struck a Tuesday high of $0.463 before falling to a Wednesday low of $0.425.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

ADA sees red.
ADAUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.444. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were ADA price negative.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA would ease selling pressure and give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.453). However, following late September’s slide through the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.400 remains in view.

ADA EMAs bearish
ADAUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT fell by 3.66% to $6.32, Monday through Friday.

A bullish start to the week saw DOT rise from a low of $6.16 to a Tuesday high of $6.81. However, a bearish second half of the week left DOT at sub-$6.40.

The bearish week left DOT down 10.23% for September and 10.48% for Q3.

There were no network updates to provide direction, leaving DOT in the hands of the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ 100.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT has to avoid last week’s $6.16 low to prevent a continued retrace to the 2022 low of $5.97.

DOT under pressure.
DOTUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.44. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA falling back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.44) and the 100-day EMA ($6.59) to see a bearish trend reversal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $5.97.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bearish Monday to Friday, falling by 0.60% to $1,329.

Tracking the broader market, ETH struck a Tuesday high of $1,401 before sliding to a Wednesday low of $1,254. However, steering clear of the September low of $1,220, ETH revisited $1,374 before easing back into the red.

While the loss for the week was modest, ETH fell by 14.48% in September to reduce the Q3 gain to 24.21%.

ETH continued to struggle in the wake of the Merge. SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s comments relating to Proof-of-Stake cryptos resonated.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,220 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

ETH holds steady.
ETHUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,340. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA could signal a shift in sentiment and support a return to $1,500. However, ETH would need to break down resistance at the 100-day EMA ($1,388) to target the 200-day EMA at $1,459.

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,220 in play.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

SOL was down 1.86% to $33.2475, Monday through Friday.

Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL rose to a Tuesday high of $35.4300 before falling to a Wednesday low of $31.6400. However, steering clear of the August low of $29.915, SOL wrapped up the Friday session at $33.2475.

Despite the Monday to Friday loss, SOL rose by 5.61% for September to end Q3 with a 1.41% loss. Investor sentiment towards Solana-based NFTs has materially improved, delivering SOL price support.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

SOL under pressure.
SOLUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $33.2915.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both were price negatives.

An SOL breakout from 100-day EMA ($33.2915) and the 50-day EMA ($33.3727) would support a run at the 200-day EMA ($33.8415). However, a bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would give the bears a look at the August low ($29.9150).

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto lender Celsius not seeking payments for outstanding loans

(Reuters) – Bankrupt crypto lender Celsius Network said on Friday it is not seeking to enforce payment obligations for outstanding loans during its Chapter 11 proceedings and that borrowers do not need to repay such loans.

New Jersey-based Celsius said no interest or penalties will be assessed post loan maturity, in a filing at the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for Southern District of New York.

Celsius filed for bankruptcy in July, with estimated assets and liabilities between $1 billion to $10 billion, with more than 100,000 creditors.

The lender also listed a $1.19 billion deficit on its balance sheet and had about 23,000 outstanding loans to retail borrowers totaling $411 million backed by collateral with a market value of $765.5 million in digital assets, as of July 13 this year.

(Reporting by Juby Babu in Bengaluru; Editing by Kim Coghill)

ADA Price Prediction: Failure to Hit $0.440 Would Test Buyers at $0.425

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, cardano (ADA) fell by 0.68%. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, ADA ended the third quarter with a 5.43% loss.
  • Input Output HK network updates failed to provide support, with Fed fear stemming from a pickup in US inflation weighing.
  • The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.40 remains in play.

On Friday, ADA fell by 0.68%. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, ADA ended the month of September down 2.47% to $0.435. It was also a bearish third quarter, with ADA ending the quarter with a 5.43% loss.

A bullish start to the Friday session saw ADA strike an early high of $0.441. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.443, ADA slid to a late low of $0.429. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.430, ADA ended the session at $0.435.

Network updates took a backseat, with ADA succumbing to external market forces. US inflation figures for August weighed on riskier assets, with the NASDAQ 100 dragging the crypto market into the red.

Cardano Updates Failed to Deliver Support as Fed Fear Resurfaces

On Friday, Input Output HK released its weekly development report. Highlights included,

  • Vasil functionality is available on the mainnet.
  • Fund9 results.
  • 100 projects launched on Cardano, up from 99 in the previous week.
  • 1,113 projects are building on Cardano, up from 1,107.
  • 50.4 million transactions, unchanged from the previous week.

While the number of projects launched continued on an upward trend, the markets will be looking for larger weekly increases following the Vasil hard fork.

Recently, Hoskinson talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork. These would need to materialize to support a sustainable ADA breakout.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.23% to $0.434. A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall from an early high of $0.436 to a low of $0.433.

ADA under early pressure.
ADAUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the $0.435 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.441. A marked shift in risk sentiment would be needed to support a return to $0.440.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.447 and $0.450 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.459.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.429 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.425 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.423. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.411.

ADA support levels in play below the pivot.
ADAUSD 011022 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.444. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.441) and the 50-day EMA ($0.444) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.447) and the 100-day EMA ($0.453). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.464. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 011022 4-Hourly Chart

XRP Price Action Points to a Likely SEC Appeal in the SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, XRP gave up some of Thursday’s breakout session, falling by 1.42% to end the quarter at $0.4801.
  • While tracking the broader market, expectations of an SEC appeal to the Hinman Court ruling added to the bearish sentiment.
  • However, the technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.55.

On Friday, XRP fell by 1.42%. Partially reversing an 8.49% from Thursday, XRP ended the third quarter up by 44.6% to $0.4801, supported by a 46.7% September gain.

After a relatively bullish start to the Friday session, XRP slid to a mid-day low of $0.46496. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4388, XRP rallied to a high of $0.49943. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5223, XRP fell back to sub-$0.48 before steadying.

XRP tracked the broader crypto market into negative territory, with US inflation and fed fear weighing. However, fears of a likely SEC appeal to Thursday’s Court ruling on the Hinman docs added further price pressure.

The Hinman Doc Court Ruling Removes Hope of an Early Conclusion

Last week, hopes of a swift conclusion to the SEC v Ripple case supported an XRP return to $0.55 before hitting reverse.

On Thursday, Judge Torres overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

The latest Court ruling likely erased hope of an early conclusion to the SEC v Ripple case that has dragged on since December 2020.

To date, SEC has failed to turn over the Hinman speech-related documents despite numerous Court orders. The SEC has battled to shield the Hinman documents under the attorney-client privilege, with more than seven motions contesting previous Court decisions. The consensus is that the SEC may even prefer to settle than disclose the content of the documents.

The former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, has been a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. In a famous 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

The SEC has more to lose than just the case against Ripple. SEC Chair Gary Gensler is bidding to win the right to regulate the digital asset space. Currently, the SEC is in a battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the honor.

Thursday’s ruling was another blow for Gensler and the SEC. The next steps for the SEC will likely include delaying the disclosure of the documents. In a series of tweets, defense attorney James Filan shared his thoughts on the SEC’s options. These included,

  • Ask Judge Torres to reconsider her overruling the SEC objection.
  • Request the Court to certify an appeal of the Court decision.
  • Go to the Court of Appeals on a Petition for Writ of Mandamus.
  • All the above.

While the above maneuvers will not impact the summary of judgment schedule, they could give the SEC a few months of breathing space before producing the docs. The likely delay may add some uncertainty to the outcome of the case. However, the Court rulings continue to go Ripple’s way, which are XRP price positives.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.27% to $0.47401. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.48116 before falling to a low of $0.47287.

XRP under pressure.
XRPUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4815 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4980 and the Friday high of $0.49943. Investors will look out for any updates from the SEC and the Defendants. Talk of an SEC appeal would likely limit the upside.

However, in the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5160. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5504.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4636 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.45 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4470.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4126.

XRP support levels in play below the pivot.
XRPUSD 011022 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.45619. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA. The signals were XRP price positive.

An XRP hold above the 50-day EMA ($0.45619) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4980) to target R2 ($0.5160). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.45619) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.4636) and the 100-day EMA ($0.43209). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.40246.

EMAs bullish.
XRPUSD 011022 4-Hourly Chart

BTC Fear & Greed Index Falls on US Inflation Numbers and Fed Fear

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) ended a mini two-day winning streak with an 0.81% loss to end the quarter at $19,430.
  • In a choppy end to the quarter, a pickup in US inflationary pressure weighed while a downward revision to consumer sentiment limited the damage.
  • However, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index slipped from 21/100 to 20/100.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.81%. Reversing a 0.88% gain from Thursday, BTC ended the month down 1.99% to $19,430. It was a third quarter to forget for the BTC bulls, with a 37.25% tumble in July leaving BTC down 38.9% for the quarter. In the previous quarter, BTC slumped by 53.84%.

A choppy start to the Friday session saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,154. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,081, BTC rallied to a mid-afternoon high of $20,181. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,874 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,160.

Late in the session, however, BTC tracked the NASDAQ 100 into the red.

Fed and Recession Fears Leave the NASDAQ and BTC in the Red

On Friday, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.51% to end the quarter down 4.11%. Fed fear resurfaced at the end of the week, with US inflationary pressures picking up in August. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July.

Softer consumer sentiment figures for September provided brief relief before BTC and the NASDAQ reversed session gains. In September, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 58.2 to 58.6, down from a prelim 59.5.

BTC sensitive to US stats and the NASDAQ
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 011022 5 Minute Chart

Fed Fear and market jitters over a recession led the NASDAQ 100 to a third consecutive quarterly loss, the longest losing streak since the Global Financial Crisis. The correlation between BTC and the NASDAQ was evident throughout the three quarters of the year. However, BTC fell for the fourth consecutive quarter.

NASDAQ correlation
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Avoids Sub-20 Despite a Bearish Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 21/100 to 20/100. A bearish session, fueled by inflation and Fed fear led to the decline. The Index sits deep within the Extreme Fear zone, reflecting investor sentiment towards the Fed and the economic outlook.

In recent weeks, avoiding sub-20/100 has been the key. The bears will be eying a fall to sub-20/100 to signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000. By contrast, the bulls will look for an Index return to 40/100 to support a move toward $25,000.

Fear & Greed Index avoided sub-20
Fear & Greed 011022

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.28% to $19,375. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,485 before falling to a low of $19,374.

BTC under early pressure.
BTCUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,588 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,023 and the Friday high of $20,181. A BTC move through the Friday would signal a bullish session.

In the case of another extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,615 and resistance at $21,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,642.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,996 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,561 will likely limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,534.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 011022 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,372.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA flattened on the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed price signals.

A move through the 100-day ($19,530) EMA would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($20,005) and R1 ($20,023). However, a slide through the 50-day EMA ($19,372) would give the bears a run at S1 ($18,996).

EMAs bearish
BTCUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE and BNB Bucked the Top Ten Trend

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Friday for the crypto top ten, with dogecoin (DOGE) bucking the top ten trend.
  • The crypto market recoupled from the NASDAQ 100, which fell for a third consecutive quarter on Fed and recession fears.
  • A mixed session left the total market cap down $48 billion for the session while up $40 billion for the quarter.

It was a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE bucked the top tend trend. However, BTC extended its losing streak to four quarters with a bearish Friday session. Despite the bearish session, BTC revisited $20,000 for just the second time in twelve sessions.

On Friday, the crypto market tracked the NASDAQ 100 into the red, with US inflation weighing.

NASDAQ correlation
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 011022 5 Minute Chart

The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.51% to end the Q3 with a 4.11% loss.

Fed fear resurfaced at the end of the week, with US inflationary pressures picking up in August. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July.

Softer consumer sentiment figures for September provided brief relief before the crypto market and the NASDAQ reversed session gains. In September, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 58.2 to 58.6, down from a prelim 59.5.

Fed Fear and market jitters over a recession led the NASDAQ 100 to a third consecutive quarterly loss, the longest losing streak since the Global Financial Crisis. The correlation between the crypto market and the NASDAQ was evident throughout the three quarters of the year.

However, a brief post-Fed policy decision decoupling from the NASDAQ 100 delivered the quarterly rise for the broader crypto market.

Post-Fed decoupling.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 011022 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Ends the Third Quarter on a Bearish Note

On Friday, the crypto market fell to a mid-day low of $893.3 billion before rising to a high of $933.13 billion. However, a bearish end to the Friday session saw the market cap slide back to sub-$900 billion before steadying.

Market reaction to the US inflation numbers reignited Fed fear, leaving the market in the red for the session. The bearish Friday session left the crypto market cap down $48.4 billion for September. However, the market cap rose by $39.8 billion in the third quarter.

Crypto market cap sees bearish Friday.
Total Market Cap 011022 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE and BNB rose by 1.29% and 0.21%, respectively, to buck the top ten trend.

However, SOL reversed Thursday’s 2.11% gain with a 2.00% loss to lead the way down.

XRP (-1.42%) also struggled while ADA (-0.68%), BTC (-0.81%), and ETH (-0.53%) saw relatively modest losses.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Terra Classic (LUNC) led the way, rallying by 9.58%, with Quant (QNT) and Helium (HNT) seeing gains of 5.78% and 5.30%, respectively.

However, Chainlink (LINK) led the way down, falling by 4.03%, with Celsius (CEL) and Pancake Swap (CAKE) seeing losses of 3.72% and 3.21%, respectively.

24-Hour Crypto Liquidations Holds Steady Despite Bearish Session

Over 24 hours, total liquidations held steady during the Friday session, despite a pickup in US inflationary pressure. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $92.79 million, up from $91.62 million on Friday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also inched higher. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 28,614 versus 28,061 on Friday morning. Liquidations were down over twelve hours and the final hour of the day (UTC) while up over four hours.

Crypto liquidations hold steady.
Total Market Cap 011022 Hourly Chart

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $66.05 million, down from $70.50 million on Friday morning, with one-hour liquidations down from $1.97 million to $0.563 million. However, four-hour liquidations were up from $10.46 million to $14.90 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

US Economic Indicators Influence.
Total Market Cap 011022 Hourly Chart

Dollar up on euro as quarter ends, commodity led currencies sink

By Sinéad Carew

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar rose against the euro on Friday but pared gains late in a session that was muddied by quarter-end trading while riskier commodity-led currencies fell sharply after European inflation hit a record high and U.S. consumer spending increased faster than expected.

But while the dollar index was showing its biggest quarterly gain since the first quarter 2015 it was set for its first weekly decline in three weeks.

Sterling rose against the dollar after falling earlier in the day. The pound last showed four straight sessions of gains followed by wild declines on concerns about Britain’s plan to slash taxes and pay for it with more borrowing.

After hitting a record low on Monday, the British currency was on track for a weekly gain after the Bank of England bought British government bonds, known as gilts, on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. [GBP/]

Data on Friday showed euro zone inflation zoomed past forecasts to hit 10.0% in September, reinforcing expectations for another jumbo European Central Bank rate hike next month.

The U.S. Commerce Department said the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which the Federal Reserve targets at 2%, rose 6.2% year-on-year in August. This gave the Fed less reason to slow down its rate hiking cycle after raising U.S. borrowing costs faster in 2022 than any time since the 1980s.

“Today’s trading is distorted by quarter-end and month-end order flows,” as investors focused on rebalancing portfolios rather than on data said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi U.S. in Boston.

But the strategist expects to see the dollar continue its upward direction as investors revert to trading on fundaments such afundamentalsamentals end.

“At this point you can’t fight the strong bullish dollar trend since its underpinned by counter cyclical factors such as concerns about global growth, geopolitical risk and rising U.S. interest rates,” Upadhyaya said.

Meanwhile, trading in currencies from countries that are heavily dependent on commodities reacted strongly to the hot inflation data on Friday due to concerns about demand and global economic growth, according to Upadhyaya.

The U.S. dollar was up 1.04% against the Canadian dollar while New Zealand’s kiwi was down 2.24% and the Australian dollar was down 1.62.

The pound, after touching $1.1235, was last up 0.28% on the day at $1.11500.

The euro was down 0.10% at $0.98055. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.08% on the day but on track for a quarterly gain of 7.2%.

But on a weekly basis the index was set for its first decline in three, last down 0.899%.

“The inflation data today surprised higher once again. That will keep upward pressure on interest rates and the dollar,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at Forexlive, a currency analysis firm in Toronto.

But at the quarter-end Button also said “fundamental considerations often take a back seat.”

Foreign exchange volatility has surged as investors have fretted about inflation and economic growth in the face of aggressive global monetary tightening. Also fraying nerves has been the Britiah mini-budget fallout and concerns about escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.

In a sign of the rush for the safety of the dollar, demand for the U.S. currency in derivative markets surged on Friday to its highest since the COVID-19 crisis in 2020.

So far this year, the dollar index has soared almost 17%. For the month, the index was on track for a 3.15% gain, its biggest since April.

The dollar was up 0.2% against the yen at 144.765, and has been mostly tracking sideways since early September.

Japan made its first yen buying intervention since 1998 last week to prop up its currency. It spent a record 2.8 trillion yen ($19.7 billion), Ministry of Finance data showed on Friday, draining nearly 15% of funds it has available for intervention.

Elsewhere, China’s yuan recouped come losses from from the previous day’s session after Reuters reported the central bank had told major state-owned banks to be ready to support the currency in offshore trading.

The Swiss franc fell after the Swiss National Bank said it had intervened in the foreign exchange market in the second-quarter to support the currency. The dollar rose 1.05% versus the franc.

(Reporting by Sinéad Carew and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York, Tommy Reggiori Wilkes in London; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Robert Birsel, Chizu Nomiyama, Alex Richardson and David Gregorio)

Bitcoin Seems to Be Regaining Defensive Status

Market Picture

Bitcoin has remained in position for the past few days, trading at $19,500 on Friday morning. As in previous days, the attempt to sell the cryptocurrency following the stock market was met with buying.

Bitcoin daily chart

This neat bottom-drawing by Bitcoin could show a wait-and-see stance and consolidation before the next move. However, crypto optimists are now siding with the positive momentum in gold and sector stocks. Investors have probably recalled them as a store of value amid the volatility in the currency market.

Among the closest key levels, the $20.8K where the 50-day moving average is located is worth mentioning. It has been playing an active role as resistance for more than a month. Local support is near $18.8K. A move outside this range could signal the end of the current consolidation.

News Background

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller expects the US economy to deteriorate significantly by the end of next year. That’s when cryptocurrencies could make a resurgence.

Alexander Hoptner, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, said he does not see any decline in institutional investor interest in the crypto industry, despite the bearish trend.

Lastly, BlackRock has launched on Euronext, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focusing on blockchain and cryptocurrency companies.

by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich

BTC Fear & Greed Index Languishes in Extreme Fear of the Fed

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.88%. Following a 1.69% gain on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,589.
  • It was another choppy session, with a Court ruling from the SEC v Ripple case delivering late support.
  • However, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index slipped from 22/100 to 21/100.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.88%. Following a 1.69% gain on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,589. Significantly, BTC failed to revisit $20,000 for the tenth time in eleven sessions while avoiding sub-$18,500.

After a range-bound morning, BTC fell to an early afternoon low of $18,859. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,668, BTC rallied to a late high of $19,652. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,981, BTC slipped back to sub-$19,600.

Following Wednesday’s choppy session, the NASDAQ 100 influenced through the day. However, a Court ruling from the SEC v Ripple case in favor of Ripple delivered late support.

Since the introduction of the Lummis and Gillibrand Bill in June, the crypto market has sided in favor of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to regulate the digital asset space. The latest ruling could hinder the SEC’s chances of being given the task.

The bullish BTC session came despite the NASDAQ 100 sliding by 2.84%, weighed by Fed fear. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 9.75 points, with investor focus shifting to US inflation figures and Fed chatter.

NASDAQ decoupling.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 300922 5 Minute Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Slips Deeper into the Extreme Fear Zone

Today, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 22/100 to 21/100. A bullish afternoon crypto session failed to prevent a modest pullback. The Index remains deep within the Extreme Fear zone, reflecting investor sentiment towards the Fed and the economic outlook.

In recent weeks, avoiding sub-20/100 has been the key. The bears will be eying a fall to sub-20/100 to signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000. By contrast, the bulls will look for an Index return to 40/100 to support a move toward $25,000.

Fear & Greed Index in a rut.
Fear & Greed 300922

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 1.16% to $19,362. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,705 before falling to a low of $19,320.

BTC under early pressure.
BTCUSD 300922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,367 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,874. A BTC move through the Thursday high of $19,652 would support a bullish session.

In the case of another extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,160 and resistance at $20,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,953. US inflation numbers will need to be softer to support a breakout session.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,081 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,574 will likely limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,781.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 300922 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $19,531.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed price signals.

A move through the 100-day ($19,531) EMAs would give the bulls a run at R1 ($19,874) and the 200-day EMA ($20,035). However, a slide through the 50-day EMA ($19,334) would give the bears a run at S1 ($19,081) and a BTC fall to sub-$19,000.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 300922 4 Hourly Chart

SEC v Ripple Ruling Goes Against the SEC, Giving XRP a Look at $0.55

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, XRP led the crypto top 100 with an 8.49% rally to end the day at $0.4870.
  • An unexpected Court ruling from the SEC v Ripple case delivered an XRP price breakout.
  • The technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.55.

On Thursday, XRP surged by 8.49%. Following a 0.65% gain on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.48700.

Bearish through the morning session, XRP fell to an early afternoon low of $0.4259. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4258, XRP surged to a late high of $0.50938.

XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4636 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4783 to end the day at $0.48700. Resistance at $0.500 pegged XRP back.

An unexpected Court ruling from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case delivered the breakout session.

Courts Orders the SEC to Turn Over Hinman Speech-Related Docs

On Thursday, Judge Torres overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

Defense attorney James Filan shared the ruling, saying,

“BREAKING: JUDGE TORRES OVERRULES THE SEC’S OBJECTIONS AND ORDERS THE SEC TO TURN OVER THE HINMAN DOCUMENTS.”

The former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, has been a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. In a famous 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

Until late July, the Defendants had the SEC on the defensive, with numerous Court rulings going in favor of the Defendants. The SEC had battled to shield the Hinman documents under the attorney-client privilege, with more than seven motions contesting previous Court decisions.

The recent Motion for Summary judgment filings suggested a possible out-of-court agreement. The market consensus had been that the SEC would do whatever it could to prevent the documents from becoming public records, including a settlement. The defendants filed their Motion for Summary Judgment without a Court ruling on the Hinman docs.

Thursday’s ruling is another blow for the SEC, which is trying to win lawmaker approval to oversee the digital asset space. While XRP responded positively to the news, an appeal to the Court ruling could be on the horizon. The other alternative for the SEC would be to settle.

To date, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has played down a willingness to reach an out-of-court settlement.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.23% to $0.48100. A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall from an early high of $0.48766 to a low of $0.47706.

XRP under early pressure.
XRPUSD 300922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4741 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5223. Investors will look out for comments from SEC and the Defendants, with any hint of an SEC appeal likely to limit the upside.

However, in the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5576. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6411.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4388 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.43 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3906.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3071.

XRP resistance levels in play above the pivot.
XRPUSD 300922 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.44952. The 50-day EMA widened from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling away from the 200-day EMA. The signals were XRP price positive.

An XRP hold above the 50-day EMA ($0.44952) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.5223) to target $0.55. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.44952) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.4388) and the 100-day EMA ($0.42586). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.39760.

EMAs bullish.
XRPUSD 300922 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – XRP Leads on SEC v Ripple Ruling

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Thursday for the crypto top ten, with XRP leading the way.
  • The crypto market decoupled from the NASDAQ 100, which tumbled by 2.84%, as demand for cryptos picked up amidst the increased volatility across the FX and Equity markets.
  • Another bullish session for the broader crypto market reduced the market cap deficit for September to $47 billion.

It was a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten. XRP enjoyed a breakout session, while ETH saw red. Despite a bullish session, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the tenth time in eleven sessions.

Updates from the SEC v Ripple case delivered an XRP price breakout and supported the broader crypto market.

Following last week’s decoupling from the NASDAQ 100, the crypto market decoupled again on Thursday. Heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook, fueled by the central bank and government policy, has also delivered crypto support.

On Thursday, the NASDAQ 100 slid by 2.84%, with the Dow and the S&P500 seeing losses of 1.54% and 2.11%, respectively. While the crypto market decoupled from the US markets on Thursday, US inflation numbers could test investor resilience later today.

NADSAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 300922 5 Minute Chart

Crypto Market Bounces Back in Risk-On US Session

On Thursday, the crypto market cap rose to an early high of $917.8 billion before falling to an early afternoon low of $878.7 billion. However, finding support through the afternoon, the crypto market bounced back to end the day at $911.4 billion, up $7.4 billion for the session.

The bullish Thursday session reduced the September deficit to $47 billion.

Crypto market cap on the rise.
Total Market Cap 300922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten.

XRP rallied by 8.49% to lead the way, with SOL rising by 2.11%.

ADA (+0.46%), BNB (+0.96%), BTC (+0.88%), and DOGE (+0.64%) also avoided the red, while ETH bucked the trend, falling by 0.07%.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

XRP and Stellar’s Lumen (XLM) led the way, with gains of 8.49% and 6.81%, respectively. EOS (EOS) was also among the front runners, rising by 5.07%.

At the other end of the table, Helium (HNT) led the way down with a 3.71% loss, with STEPN (GMT) and Reserve Rights (RSR) seeing losses of 3.26% and 2.69%, respectively.

24-HourCrypto Liquidations Ease Back as Risk Aversion Subsides

Over 24 hours, total liquidations fell back during the Thursday session, supported by the decoupling from the NASDAQ 100. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $91.62 million, down from $124.53 million on Thursday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 28,061 versus 44,964 on Thursday morning. Liquidations were down over four hours and the final hour of the day (UTC) while up over 12 hours.

Crypto liquidations fall back on bullish session.
Total Crypto Liquidations 300922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $70.50 million, up from $56.39 million on Thursday morning. However, four-hour liquidations were down from $14.28 million to $10.46 million, with one-hour liquidations down from $3.06 million to $1.97 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market sees a choppy Thursday session.
Total Market Cap 300922 Hourly Chart

 

Sterling rallies for 3rd day after BoE bond buys; U.S. dollar down

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Sterling rose sharply in volatile trading on Thursday, rallying from record lows hit on Monday, after the Bank of England conducted a second day of bond buying to stabilize financial markets.

The pound posted its largest one-day percentage gain since March 2020 and last traded at $1.1076, up 1.8%. After hitting an all-time trough of $1.0327 three days ago, sterling has rallied more than 7% against the dollar.

The recovery in the British currency was due in part to the BoE’s action. On Thursday, the BoE bought 1.415 billion pounds ($1.55 billion) of British government bonds with maturities of more than 20 years, the second day of a multi-billion pound program designed to stabilize the market.

“The BoE is showing creativity and willingness to respond to crazy markets,” said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy, at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

But he noted that sterling gains as a result of the BoE’s moves are not sustainable.

“Any time a central bank is undertaking a temporary intervention program, the market will certainly test this and see whether the central banks is going to keep doing this or not. But I wouldn’t forecast that the pound’s parity with the dollar is going to break.”

Anderson added that he will be a seller of the pound at $1.10, with the likelihood of the currency going back down to $1.05.

Sterling initially fell on Thursday as Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her government tax-cutting budget.

The dollar, on the other hand, fell against a basket of major currencies. It was last down 0.4% at 112.148.

The euro rose 0.7% against the dollar to $0.9804.

Data showed euro zone economic sentiment fell sharply and by more than expected in September as confidence dropped among companies and consumers, who are also downbeat about price trends in the coming months.

The big focus, however, was German inflation, which jumped to 10.9% this month, far beyond expectations for a reading of 10%. That suggests the figure for the wider 19-country euro zone, due on Friday, is also likely to exceed the predicted 9.6%, reinforcing the case for another 75 basis-point increase at the next European Central Bank policy meeting.

That said, some analysts think the ECB’s potential action is likely just a short-term boost for the euro.

“Rate increases can support a currency… But the process of inflation is never good for a currency, especially if inflation hasn’t been tamed properly by the central bank,” said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX Strategy at BMO in London.

“I would not want to own the euro simply because the ECB is hiking. I would want to own the euro when the U.S. dollar peaks, and when it becomes clear that euro zone inflation is moderating and when it becomes clear that the bloc is clear of a massive recession.”

In other currency pairs, the dollar rose 0.2% to 144.355 yen.

Japan intervened last week to shore up a struggling yen. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday Japan’s recent currency intervention was conducted to rectify market distortion caused by speculative currency moves. He signalled his readiness to intervene again if speculation persists.

Elsewhere, China’s offshore yuan bounced about 1% to 7.0894 per dollar after Reuters reported state banks have been told to stock up for yuan intervention.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar sank 0.4% to US$0.6494. A new measure of consumer prices showed annual inflation eased a bit from August to July, offering hope that cost pressures might be close to a peak. [AUD/]

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Joice Alves in London, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Angus MacSwan, Alex Richardson, Jonathan Oatis and David Gregorio)

ADA Price Prediction: Bears Eye $0.40 as Bearish Trend Continues

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, cardano (ADA) fell by 1.13%. Following a 1.34% loss on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.436.
  • The fifth loss from six sessions came despite positive post-hard fork chatter and a bullish day for the broader crypto market.
  • The technical indicators are bearish. With ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.40 remains in play.

On Wednesday, ADA fell by 1.13%. Following a 1.34% loss on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.436.

A bearish start to the Wednesday session saw ADA fall to a morning low of $0.425. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.431 before rallying to a late high of $0.443. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.457, ADA fell back to sub-$0.440.

Cardano Updates Fail to Deliver Support Amidst a Bearish Backdrop

On Wednesday, ADA bucked the broader market trend. The crypto market cap rose by $14.1 billion to $910.0 billion. While ADA was not alone in the red, the downward trend follows a similar trend to that of ethereum (ETH) in the wake of the Ethereum Merge.

The decline may not be as significant, but the fall back towards $0.40 comes despite some upbeat Cardano network commentary.

At Mainnet 2022, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson spoke of venture capitalists targeting the Cardano ecosystem in numbers by 2024. Hoskinson had previously talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork.

This week, there were reports of Emurgo, Cardano’s developer, planning to invest a substantial sum to support the development of the Cardano ecosystem.

Considering the recent trend and network news, investors will likely be looking for a surge in projects on the Cardano network before investing. Considering the timelines shared by Hoskinson for VCs to hit the ecosystem, investors may need to be patient. ADA was down 27.2% from an August high of $0.595.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.69% to $0.433. A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.439 before falling to a low of $0.429.

ADA under pressure.
ADAUSD 290922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the $0.435 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.444. A marked shift in risk sentiment would be needed to support a breakout from the Wednesday high of $0.443.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.453 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.471.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.426 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.420 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.417. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.399.

ADA support levels in play below the pivot.
ADAUSD 290922 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.448. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.444) and the 50-day EMA ($0.448) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.453) and the 100-day EMA ($0.456). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.466. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 290922 4-Hourly Chart

 

UK watchdog dismisses criticisms over crypto authorisations

By Huw Jones and Elizabeth Howcroft

LONDON (Reuters) – Crypto companies were undeterred by initial failure to obtain licences to operate in Britain and were submitting new applications, the Financial Conduct Authority said on Thursday.

The FCA has been criticised by lawmakers and the crypto sector for being slow in processing licence applications and for rejecting swathes of applicants despite the UK government’s push to make London a global crypto hub.

“It’s no surprise that I still see many crypto firms still seeking to get licences here in the UK even though some have been denied those licences at the first pass,” FCA executive director for competition and consumers Sheldon Mills told a City & Financial conference.

“They know we have a good system of regulation and if they meet our standards that’s important for every jurisdiction that they seek to apply for around the world,” Mills said.

“That is a benefit to the UK economy and UK financial service industry, and is good for competition, inward investment and growth.”

Crypto firms are scrutinised by the FCA for their ability to stop their operations being used for money laundering or financing terrorism.

In March, the FCA said that 90% of crypto firms seeking approval for their anti-money laundering controls have either withdrawn their applications or been refused because they could not meet the standards.

Mills said 95 people have been hired to the watchdog’s authorisations team and the pending caseload has fallen by 40%.

“Over time, we expect faster, better decisions will support us in bringing down the costs of the regulatory system,” Mills said.

Jean-Marie Mognetti, chief executive of crypto asset manager CoinShares, said the company chose to list in European Union member state Sweden because Britain and the FCA were “not very keen” to see any crypto companies in London.

Mognetti said the European Union’s new set of ‘MiCA’ rules for fully licensing crypto firms will put the EU at an advantage over Britain.

“If you talk about attractiveness from a regulated activity [perspective], the fact that London is not part of MiCA and will not have passporting in Europe… is going to be a massive handicap,” Mognetti said.

Under a draft law now before parliament, Britain will licence stablecoins, but leave the rest of the cryptoasset industry for a later date.

(Reporting by Huw Jones; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

XRP Faces Risk of a Return to Sub-$0.40 on Slow SEC v Ripple Progress

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, XRP rose by 0.65% to end the day at $0.4489. XRP had fallen to a session low of $0.41736 before a shift in market risk appetite.
  • Apple Inc. (AAPL) and the Bank of England delivered a choppy mid-week session as investors await updates from the SEC v Ripple case.
  • However, the technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 100-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.50.

On Wednesday, XRP rose by 0.65%. Partially reversing a 4.68% slide from Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.44890.

A bearish start to the day saw XRP slide to an early morning low of $0.41736. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4249 before rallying to a late high of $0.45515. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4772, XRP slipped back to end the day at sub-$0.45.

Slow Progress in the SEC v Ripple Case Leaves XRP in Choppy Waters

A lack of news updates on the SEC v Ripple case left XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market. News of Apple Inc. (AAPL) pulling plans to ramp up the production of the new iPhone 14 product suite for weak demand weighed on riskier assets. However, a Bank of England intervention to stabilize the Pound and the UK bond markets delivered support through the afternoon session.

This morning, inflation and recession jitters resurfaced, however. Risk-off sentiment spilled over from the global equity markets, leaving XRP under pressure through the morning.

Before the Wednesday session, investor angst over the lack of a swift conclusion to the SEC v Ripple case had sent XRP back to sub-$0.50. Investor optimism had driven XRP to $0.55 for the first time since May in response to the SEC and the defendants filing the Motion for Summary Judgment.

With the next date in the Court calendar being October 18, XRP could come under more selling pressure should market sentiment towards riskier assets fail to improve.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 2.14% to $0.43929. A mixed morning saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.45107 before falling to a low of $0.43500.

XRP under morning pressure.
XRPUSD 290922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4405 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4636. Market risk appetite and sentiment towards the SEC v Ripple case would need to improve materially to support a breakout from the Wednesday high of $0.45515.

An extended rally would support a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4783 and test resistance at $0.4850. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5161.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4258 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.41 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4027.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3649.

XRP support levels in play below the pivot.
XRPUSD 290922 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.42288. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA. The signals were mixed.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.44733) would support a run at R1 ($0.4636) to retarget $0.48. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.44733) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.4258) and the 100-day EMA ($0.42288). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.39500.

EMAs remain bullish.
XRPUSD 290922 4-Hourly Chart

Bitcoin Has Been Flat For 10 Days

Market Picture

Bitcoin daily chart

Bitcoin is up 3.1% over the past 24 hours, trading around $19,400. After a downward momentum early in the day, the first cryptocurrency received some support thanks to a recovery in risk appetite.

Bitcoin weekly chart

Ethereum is gaining 3.5% overnight to $1330, with the top cryptocurrencies ranging from +0.5% (Cardano) to +4.7% (BNB). Overall, total crypto capitalisation rose 2.2% to $937B overnight, according to CoinMarketCap.

CoinShares said UK investors are buying Bitcoin amid the Pound’s collapse this week, as we see with rising BTC/GBP trading volumes.

The momentum in the first and second half of the day has balanced each other out. As a result, Bitcoin has been moving sideways for the last ten days – without a clear trend and in a narrow range. This “dangling at the bottom” indicates Bitcoin accumulates in the area just below 20K. For now, the long-term pattern remains that the first cryptocurrency is attracting buyers on the decline from the previous cyclical peak.

News Background

In an online discussion organised by the Bank of France, the heads of the world’s leading central banks called for increased regulation of the decentralised finance (DeFi) sector justified against the backdrop of its development.

Australia’s central bank has announced the launch of a Digital Central Bank Currency (CBDC) by mid-2023. Fed chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed has not yet decided on the digital dollar (CBDC) promotion.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said he would never support a government-owned digital currency that violates the privacy of its owner.

The IMF said that the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm could lead to excessive concentration of control at cryptocurrencies and custodial service providers with risks to the integrity of markets.

by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich