US Stock Market Overview – Stock Rally Led by the Nasdaq; Microsoft and Semis Drive the Gains

US stocks moved higher on Monday, as traders anticipated a deal between the White House and Congressional Democrats. Most sectors in the S&P 500 index were higher, led by Healthcare. Real-estate bucked the trend. The Nasdaq hit a fresh new record high, led by gains in Microsoft and the Semis. The VIX volatility index hit a fresh 5-month low at 22, before rebounding into the close to settle near 24.40. Apple shares continued to rally climbing nearly 3% on Monday after notching up a 14% gain last week.

Manufacturing in the US accelerated the most in 16-months, which is a forward-looking index. This helped buoy US yields which in turn help the US dollar rebound. The dollar rebounded putting pressure on precious metals, but oil and natural gas rallied helping to buoy the energy space. Natural gas prices surged 16% on Monday on a warm weather forecast. Microsoft confirmed that it would work out a deal to purchase Chinese company TikTok from Byedance. President Trump said that he would want part of the sale to come to the American People. This enraged some businesses in China.

ISM Manufacturing Accelerates by the Fast Pace in 16-months

U.S. manufacturing expanded in July at the fastest pace since March 2019. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index rose to 54.2 last month from 52.6. Expectations were for a reading of 53.6. The ISM’s measure of production increased in July to 62.1, the highest level since August 2018, and a gauge of orders climbed to 61.5, which was the strongest since September of that year. Customer inventories fell to 41.6 in July, the lowest this year and showing that stockpiles were shrinking at a faster pace. Factory inventories also declined after barely growing a month earlier.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Surge More than 16% on Warm Weather Forecast

Natural gas prices broke out on Monday, as short were squeezed out of the market. Warmer than normal weather which is expected to cover most of the mid-west and east coast over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days generated a surge in prices that buoy natural gas more than 15%. There is one tropical stork in the Atlantic but it is moving up the east coast and will not generate a disturbance to natural gas installations.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices surged higher rising 16.5% on Monday. Support is seen near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1.92. Resistance is seen near the May 2020 highs at 2.50. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Demand Rises in Latest Week

Demand rises across all domestic sectors, with power generation reaching a summer high. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 0.9% compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 0.7% week over week, reaching 43.6 Bcf/d on Monday, the highest level so far in summer 2020. Industrial sector consumption increased by 1.3% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 0.6%. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 0.9%.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate Near All-time Highs as the Dollar Rebound

Gold prices consolidated near all-time highs, as the dollar started to rebound after tumbling for 7-consecutive weeks. US yields moved higher following a report from the Institute of Supply management which showed that manufacturing expanded at the fasted rate since March of 2019. The rebound in yields buoyed the greenback capping upward momentum for the yellow metal.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices consolidated just below all-time highs following last week’s 3.5% rise.  Support is seen near the 10-day moving average near 1,927. Medium-term momentum has turned positive and continues to accelerate higher as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory points to higher prices. Short-term momentum continues to flip flow back and forth between buy and sell signal. The fast-stochastic is printing a reading of 92 above the overbought trigger level of 80, which could foreshadow a correction. The RSI is printing a reading of 82, above the overbought trigger level of 70 which could foreshadow a correction.

ISM Manufacturing Rises More than Expected

U.S. manufacturing expanded in July at the fastest pace since March 2019. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index rose to 54.2 last month from 52.6. Expectations was for a reading of 53.6 median. The ISM’s measure of production increased in July to 62.1, the highest level since August 2018, and a gauge of orders climbed to 61.5, which was the strongest since September of that year.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Benchmark Index Supported by Microsoft Surge

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher at the mid-session on Monday. The strength is being driven by Microsoft’s pursuit of TikTok’s U.S. operations and a clutch of upbeat quarterly earnings reports. Gains are likely being limited by Congress’ inability to agree on a fiscal coronavirus stimulus deal.

At 16:04 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3288.50, up 25.00 or +0.83%.

Microsoft jumped 3.7% as it said it would push ahead with talks to acquire the U.S. operations of Chinese-owned TikTok after President Donald Trump reversed course on a planned ban of the short-video app. Additionally, tech and healthcare led gains among the 11 S&P 500 sectors.

A rally in tech-related stocks and historic stimulus have lifted the S&P 500 to within 4% of its peak, but faltering macroeconomic data and a gridlock on more government stimulus have made investors cautious again.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out the last main top at 3284.50. A trade through 3195.00 will change the main trend to down.

After trading inside a compressed range for two weeks, the index appears ready to break out to the upside. Today’s early price action suggests there is a bid, but we’d like to see if buyers will come in on a pullback into the former main tops at 3284.50 and 3269.00.

Defending 3284.and 3269 will indicate that buyers are coming in with conviction and defending the breakout. This will also indicate that the buying was being fueled by new money coming into the market rather than buy stops.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Strong Oil Limits U.S. Dollar Upside

USD/CAD Video 03.08.20.

Resistance At The 20 EMA Stays Strong

USD/CAD tried to gain more upside momentum but faced resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.3450 as the U.S. dollar rebounded against a broad basket of currencies while WTI oil returned back above the key $40 level.

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its rebound and managed to settle above 93.5. However, it faced resistance at the 94 level and pulled back. In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to get above 94, USD/CAD will have a good chance to develop more upside momentum.

While the rebound of the U.S. Dollar Index was bullish for USD/CAD, the oil price upside limited the American currency’s gains against the Canadian dollar.

For WTI oil, the key level is the resistance at $42.50. A move above this level will likely lead to increased upside momentum and provide significant support to commodity-related currencies including the Canadian dollar.

Today, the U.S. has reported Manufacturing PMI data for July. Manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 in June to 50.9 in July while analysts expected that it would grow to 51.3. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

Canada is set to provide its Manufacturing PMI report tomorrow.

Technical Analysis

usd cad august 3 2020

USD to CAD did not manage to get above the nearest resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.3450 and declined closer to 1.3400. The nearest material support level for USD to CAD is located at 1.3330. This level has already been tested several times and proved its strength.

The resistance at the 20 EMA has the potential to become a significant obstacle on the way up. At this point, USD to CAD may find itself stuck in a trading range between the support at 1.3330 and the resistance at the 20 EMA.

In case USD to CAD manages to get above the 20 EMA, it will head towards the major resistance level at 1.3500. A move above this level will likely lead to increased upside momentum, and USD to CAD will head towards the next resistance level at the 50 EMA at 1.3550.

On the support side, a move below 1.3330 could trigger a sell-off, taking USD to CAD to the next support level at 1.3270.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Indices Continue to Climb

The S&P 500 initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday but then shot higher. We are above the 3300 level early in the session, and it does suggest that we are probably going to go looking towards the gap above, and then eventually the 3400 level. That is the all-time high, and I think it is only a matter of time before we get there due to the fact that the Federal Reserve continues to add liquidity to the markets, and therefore people are buying “things” to get away from the US dollar itself.

S&P 500 Video 04.08.20

Have been in an uptrend anyway, so regardless as to what we are doing in the short term, buying is the one thing that you should be looking at, as selling is very dangerous to do. I think there is significant support at the 3200 level which has been sustained, so that is something to keep in mind going forward. The 3400 level could be a bit difficult to get above, but once we do that should open up a move towards the 3500 level.

Even if we break down below the 3200 level the 50 day EMA is sitting at the 3130 level, and therefore I think it is only a matter of time before the buyers return on any pullback. Remember, stock markets have nothing to do with the economy, and everything to do with liquidity. As long as the Federal Reserve continues to throw money at the market, they will continue to buy things. This is a market that has been one way for a while and I just do not see it changing.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Show Signs of Exhaustion

Silver markets have gotten a bit overextended during the trading session again on Monday, giving back some of the gains. Ultimately, this is a market that I think needs to find either some type of stability, or some type of value in order to continue the uptrend. I do believe that longer-term we are going higher but that huge candlestick from last week I think is defining the range right now. That means that $26 on the top will be the ceiling, while the basement is closer to the $22.55 level. All things being equal though, I do think that at the very least we need to cool off a bit and pull back in order to consolidate, or perhaps even break down a bit from here.

SILVER Video 04.08.20

Either way, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to short this market, as it is far too strong. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve continues to work against the value of the greenback and that of course works for the silver market itself. If that is going to be the case, then I believe that silver is going to go much higher over the longer term, but we may have simply just run out of momentum for the short term. That is okay, the market can go straight up in the air forever so it makes quite a bit of sense that we would have to give back some here. Being patient will be the best way to trade this market, as chasing the trade right now would be very dangerous.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Gets Back Above $40 As Traders Cheer Encouraging Manufacturing PMI Data

Oil Video 03.08.20.

U.S. Oil Rig Count Falls Again

The recent Baker Hughes Rig Count report showed that the number of active rigs in the U.S. remained flat at 251. Meanwhile, the number of rigs drilling for oil declined by 1 to 180.

The previous report showed that the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil increased by 1 to 181. Some traders have started to worry that such increase signals the beginning of a new upside trend in U.S. production which would be bearish for the oil market.

Fortunately for oil bulls, the new Baker Hughes Rig Count report has indicated that U.S. producers are not ready to meaningfully increase production at current oil prices.

This is especially important at times when OPEC+ countries are increasing their production by two million barrels per day (bpd) as they gradually ease the previous production cuts.

For example, Russia has stated that its oil production was in line with the OPEC+ deal in July while it has reportedly increased its oil production in the first days of August.

In this situation, an increase of production from U.S. shale companies could serve as a material bearish catalyst. However, the recent data indicates that U.S. oil production is set to remain mostly flat in the near term, which is good for the oil market.

Positive Manufacturing PMI Reports Provide Support To Oil Prices

WTI oil’s recent attempt to settle below the key $40 level was not successful, and oil is back above $40.

Oil prices got material support from the release of Manufacturing PMI reports. In Euro Area, Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.4 in June to 51.8 in July. In the U.S., Manufacturing PMI grew from 49.8 to 50.9. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

Traders are betting that recent improvements in the manufacturing segment will boost oil demand and support oil prices.

However, it remains to be seen whether the growth in the manufacturing segment will be sufficient enough to offset worries about new restrictive measures which are implemented to stop the spread of coronavirus.

Most recently, Philippines imposed a new two-week lockdown in its capital Manila to slow down the spread of the disease.

In Europe, the travel sector recovery is once again postponed as countries introduce quarantine measures for travellers and require them to wear masks.

According to a recent Reuters report, most potential tourists from UK, France and Germany will skip a holiday if they need to get tested for COVID-19 and are required to wear face masks. This does not bode well for the recovery of jet fuel demand.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Get Squashed

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has done very little during the trading session again on Monday as we continue to see the market chop back and forth. We are essentially stuck between the 50 day EMA on the bottom and the 200 day EMA on the top. If that is going to be the case, then it is likely that what we are going to see is a market that continues to look for some type of longer-term catalyst. Right now, we simply do not have one. We have a lot of things going on at the same time that they seem to be canceling each other out.

Crude Oil Video 04.08.20

Brent

Brent markets of course are doing the same thing, as we have no real drive to go in one direction or another. As long as the US dollar continues to struggle, it is likely that we will see a bit of upward pressure, but at the same time we have to worry about whether or not there is enough demand, and of course whether or not there is going to be compliance when it comes to OPEC countries. So far, the compliance has been relatively strong so that has been one of the boosts higher and of course with the US dollar certainly that helps to. However, and this is a huge thing, demand is most certainly down as the lack of air travel alone has taken a huge chunk out of it.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Shoot Through 200 EMA

Natural gas markets have shot through the roof during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, slicing through the 200 day EMA. That being said, we are dealing with the $2.00 level, an area that of course will cause a certain amount of psychological resistance. Over the last several months, we have been building on this range, and I think we are trying to put in some type of bottom for the market longer term, due to the fact that we are seen bankruptcies out there, and that should bring down supply in theory. Furthermore, there has been a pretty significant amount of heat in the United States driving up demand.

NATGAS Video 04.08.20

Add in a tropical storm in the fact that the US dollar is losing value, then you have an opportunity for natural gas to reclaim some real estate to the upside. I think we probably have a pullback ahead of us, but I would be willing to buy that dip, especially somewhere near the $1.80 level if we can get down there.

If you have the ability to trade in small increments, then we could be looking at a potential trend change, at least for the second half of the year, which could provide a nice little opportunity. I do not have any interest in shorting this market because we are so low from a historical standpoint. When you zoom out several years, you can see that clearly the $1.50 level was a major turning point more than once.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Pull Back From Major Figure

Gold markets have broken above the $2000 level initially during trading on Monday but have pulled back from that psychologically important level. Ultimately, I think we go well beyond $2000, but it may take some time to get used to the idea. Furthermore, the market has been overextended for a while, so I am more than comfortable sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the gold markets to come back. That being said, if we get a daily close above the $2000 level then it is probably a signal that we are ready to continue.

Gold Price Predictions Video 04.08.20

To the downside I like the $1900 level for support, but I can also say the same thing about $1950. After all, that is an area that I think will attract a certain amount of attention due to the fact that there was a little bit of a gap there. Ultimately, gold is something that I have no interest in shorting and therefore it is a matter of being patient enough to take advantage of the opportunities when it becomes just a bit “cheap.” With that being said, the $1900 level is massive support, but even below there I think the absolute “floor” in the market is closer to the $1700 level.

The 200 day EMA sits right there, and of course between here and there we also have the 50 day EMA which is trading at roughly $1800. All things being equal, there is absolutely nothing on this chart that remotely suggests that you have any business trying to short gold. At this point the question is not whether to be longer short, but rather to own it or wait for cheaper pricing?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Expectations of Higher Export Demand, Possible Heat Supportive

A shift in the short-term forecast over the weekend was all it took to revive the sluggish natural gas market on Monday. The news that heat was being put back into the forecast helped offset the generally bearish tone created by worries that Hurricane Isaias would bring in cooler temperatures throughout the Midwest and East Coast.

At 14:30 GMT, September natural gas is trading $2.008, up $0.209 or +11.62%.

NatGasWeather wrote Monday morning, “The weekend weather data was only slightly changed in most models except for the European model, which gained a hefty amount of demand. In fact, the European model was cooler than the rest of the data by nearly 10 CDD’s at Friday’s close, then trended notably hotter over the weekend to now nearly 10 CDD’s hotter than the rest of the data.”

“The natural gas markets are clearly hoping the hotter European model is correct with prices up more than 20 cents this morning. Although, prices were likely aided by LNG/feedgas/exports increasing to 4 Bcf over the weekend to tighten the balance. The European model has been running too hot in most instances this summer, so there risk if it loses some demand to line up better with the rest of the data.”

Additionally, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reported that liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas demand jumped higher over the weekend, with Genscape Inc.’s estimate showing a 740 MMcf/d day/day increase on Saturday.

“Recently, a Bloomberg survey of traders found that up to 45 cargo cancellations are expected for the month of August, down from roughly 50 for the month prior,” Genscape analyst Preston Fussee-Durham said.

The largest increase in feed gas inventories occurred at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal, with volumes to the facility climbing nearly 580 MMcf/d, according to Genscape estimates.

“Effective for today’s gas day (based on timely cycle nominations), feed gas demand from interstate pipelines stands at 3.85 Bcf/d – 0.68 Bcf/d more than July’s average of 3.17 Bcf/d,” Fussee-Durham said.

Daily Forecast

Bullish traders are responding to the news without hesitation. They really had no choice, the weather guys put heat back into the forecast, and demand for feed gas was up. These are short-term bullish factors.

Although there is no significant resistance until $2.499, there is room to rally into a 50% to 61.8% resistance zone at $2.041 to $2.149. Sellers could return on a move into this area.

The return of hot weather and firmer demand for LNG may not have that much of an impact on nearby natural gas futures, but it means a lot to deferred traders who want to see storage supply fall head of the winter demand season.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Bulls Pulled a Rabbit Out Of Their Hats

Just as I called for, the bulls are winning in the battle to break above the early June highs lastingly. And it’s not through technology, communications or the defensives – the other sectors keep more or less standing ground.

So, can I wave off the selling pressure right after the opening bell? In today’s analysis, I will look at this shot across the bow, and examine the extent to which the bulls should be concerned, or not.

I reaction to Q2 tech earnings indeed overpowered the dismal quarterly GDP figures and struggling job market. Right or wrong, the stock market takes a rear view mirror look at this historic GDP plunge, treating it as a mere mini-depression. It chooses to ignore the fact that more than 54 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, and that a total of 118 million working age Americans aren’t working (the labor participation rate in June stood at 61.5% only).

With the new stimulus around the corner, it’s betting that the unprecedented plunge in personal consumption (concentrated in services, not goods) and likewise steep dive in consumer sentiment, would be over. Right now, such bets are still paying off.

S&P 500 in the Medium- and Short-Run

I’ll start today’s flagship Stock Trading Alert with the weekly chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):

After preceding week’s hesitation, bullish price action revived the weekly chart again. On solid volume, prices closed above the early June highs. All by themselves, I don’t see the extended weekly indicators as a cause for concern – such rationale has to stem from the daily chart, so let’s check that one next.

Another breakout attempt above the early June highs is officially in, and its rising volume is encouraging. Or does the bearish candlestick bring more than its fair share of caution? Without a downside reversal in the nearest days, the candle merely tells a story of a successful reversal of Friday’s losses.

The credit markets still lean the bullish way.

The Credit Markets’ Point of View

High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) extended gains on Friday, having earlier repelled the bears. The lower volume isn’t an issue when examining the previous volume spike. Take a look at late June, and the relative volume differential in the session following the washout one. That’s why I see Friday’s decreasing volume vs. Thursday’s high one, as no cause for concern.

Both the leading credit market ratios (please see this and many more charts at my home site) – high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) – are broadly supporting each other. And that bodes well for the stock upswing to go on.

The ratio of high yield corporate bonds to all corporate bonds (PHB:$DJCB) is in an uptrend again, and such return of the animal spirits in bonds is constructive for the stock market bulls.

The ratio of stocks to Treasuries ($SPX:$UST) paints a bit more cautious picture. Yet, its message is still of the stock bulls enjoying the benefit of the doubt.

The overlaid S&P 500 closing prices (black line) against the HYG:SHY ratio show that Friday’s close didn’t leave stocks in a dangerously extended position. Should the HYG:SHY tailwind last as I see it likely to, then stock prices have a floor nearby.

Smallcaps and Emerging Markets

The Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) is trading weak on a very short-term basis – it didn’t manage to even close unchanged while the S&P 500 moved up. Should they have performed better, that would point to a more broad-based advance within the S&P 500 – and indeed, the daily market breadth indicators in the 500-strong index have seen better days, politely put. But back to smallcaps.

Indeed, the IWM ETF is in a vulnerable position after having defended its 200-day moving average. Should its weakness take a more impactful turn, that would surely affect the S&P 500.

Emerging markets keep their healthy consolidation going, and are slowly again approaching their early July highs. This chart’s message certainly isn’t bearish for the S&P 500.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology (XLK ETF) is all the rage again, making new 2020 highs. Pretty extended, but the much talked about correction, hasn’t come and isn’t really here. The key driver of Friday’s S&P 500 isn’t disappointing.

Crucially, semiconductors (XSD ETF) aren’t underperforming in any dramatic fashion. Dramatic – that’s an understatement, because one day’s weakness doesn’t cut that. Move on, no crack in the dam here.

Healthcare (XLV ETF) merely refused to decline profoundly on Friday, and isn’t really acting as a market leader over the past few session. Step aside though, and the chart is healthy, and I look for an upside surprise here quite soon. Perhaps some more vaccine news slash hype would help the lackluster financials (XLF ETF) performance too.

Summary

Summing up, Friday’s S&P 500 reversal is keeping the breakout attempt above the early June highs alive. Credit markets keep acting strong, and the rise in Treasuries just serves to power the TINA (there is no alternative) trade as it pushes investors farther out on the risk curve. Farther than they would be comfortable, but still helping the stock bull at the moment. One of the key watchouts is the daily market breadth, where both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume remain in the bearish territory. Overall, the balance of risks remains skewed to the upside, though the bulls would benefit from a tight stop-loss locking recent gains.

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter – it’s absolutely free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Thank you.

Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Monica Kingsley and her associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Ms. Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Monica Kingsley’s reports you fully agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Rangebound as Big Money Waits on Sidelines for Demand Clarity

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging higher on Monday, but posting a second-consecutive rangebound day as prices remain inside last Thursday’s unusually wide trading range. The price action suggests a couple of things, investor indecision or the transitioning from bullish to bearish as the market adjusts to COVID-19 related demand shifts that are likely to lead to a rise in global supply.

At 13:30 GMT, September WTI crude oil is trading $40.45, up $0.18 or +0.45%. December Brent crude oil is at $44.54, up $0.37 or +0.84%.

Other analysts agree that prices are being pressured by rising coronavirus cases around the globe and by oversupply worries as OPEC and its allies are set to wind back up output cuts in August, but supported by positive industry data in Europe and Asia.

Stronger PMI Data Out of China, Euro Zone

A private survey released Monday showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded in July. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Manger’s Index came in at 52.8 for July, above expectations for a reading of 51.3 by economists in a Reuters poll.

In the Euro Zone, manufacturing activity across the region expanded for the first time since early 2019 last month as demand rebounded after more easing of the restrictions imposed to quell the spread of the new coronavirus, a survey showed on Monday.

IHS Markit’s final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index bounced to 51.8 in July from June’s 47.4 – its first time above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction since January 2019.

Russia is Raising Oil Output as OPEC+ Cuts Ease:  Reuters Source

Russian oil and gas condensate output increased to 9.8 million barrels per day (bpd) on August 1-2 from 9.37 million bpd in July as the country eases production curbs under an OPEC+ deal, a source familiar with data said on Monday. The Energy Ministry declined to comment on the data.

Russia has said it will increase its crude oil production by 400,000 bpd as part of that deal, which does not include output of gas condensate, a light oil.

Daily Forecast

WTI and Brent crude oil could remain rangebound until traders get more clarity about how the new surge in COVID-19 cases will affect demand. Traders are also likely to try to hold prices in a range until they see how the OPEC+ output cut tapering changes the supply dynamic.

With most money managers on the sidelines or investing in other momentum driven markets like the metals, crude oil speculators are getting a little nervous about attacking the long side of the market because of worries over the strength of the demand recovery. Bullish speculators are concerned that the surge in coronavirus cases in the U.S. and around the world could slow the recovery if more restrictions are put into place.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Failed To Get Above Resistance At $24.95

Silver Video 03.08.20.

Silver Finds Itself Under Pressure As U.S. Dollar Continues To Rebound

Silver pulled back closer to $24.00 as the U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies while gold corrected from recent highs.

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its rebound, putting pressure on precious metals and other commodities. The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to settle above the resistance at 93.5 and is trying to get above the 94 level.

If the U.S. dollar continues its upside move, silver may experience more pressure since stronger dollar makes it more expensive for buyers who have other currencies. In case the U.S. Dollar Index will be able to get above the 94 level, it will likely head towards the significant resistance at the 20 EMA at 94.90.

Meanwhile, spot gold made an attempt to test the $2000 level but failed to gain more upside momentum and pulled back closer to $1970. At this point, gold is trying to consolidate just below the $2000 level which is a healthy sign for bulls.

However, a continued rebound of the U.S. dollar may put additional pressure on gold and cause a correction which will be also bearish for silver.

Gold/silver ratio is forming a range between 80 and 85 while volatility decreases. Gold/silver ratio did not manage to immediately rebound after the major downside move that happened in July, which is a bullish development for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver august 3 2020

Silver failed to settle above the nearest resistance level at $24.95 and pulled back. The nearest support level at $24.00 has also been tested during today’s trading session.

Volatility may decrease in the upcoming trading sessions, and silver may find itself in a new trading range between support at $24.00 and resistance at $24.95.

However, this scenario is not guaranteed since silver volatility may increase as a result of rapid moves on the U.S. dollar front or a gold price breakout.

In case silver settles below the support level at $24.00, it will head towards the next support at $23.25.

A move above the nearest resistance at $24.95 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level which is located at recent highs at $26.20.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Grind Higher

The US dollar tried to break higher against the Japanese yen early on Monday, clearing the ¥106 level. However, we do have some issues above with resistance and it will be interesting to see whether or not we can continue going higher. The 50 day EMA sits at roughly ¥107, an area that is obviously psychologically important as well.

USD/JPY Video 04.08.20

Because of this, I am looking to fade this rally on signs of exhaustion I do not really believe that this is a market that is suddenly going to change its overall trend this quickly, and it should probably be noted that the Friday candlestick that was so impressive was also end of month trading, meaning that there may have been some profit-taking. Nonetheless, I still believe there is more than enough bearish pressure above to cause some issues, so at this point in time am simply looking to sell.

It is not until we clear the 200 day EMA, which is sitting at roughly ¥108, that I am comfortable buying. Furthermore, we have the jobs number coming out this Friday that will probably move the markets as well. At this point in time I think the market is simply going to run out of steam, and then it becomes a nice selling opportunity. Until then, I will probably check this chart every few hours on a smaller time frame to see when and if we get the exhaustion that I am looking for. I have no interest in buying anytime soon as rallies continue to get sold into.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Testing Major Figure

The British pound fell a bit during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, reaching down towards the 1.30 level where buyer step in and pick that up a bit. At this point, it is still an open-ended question as to whether or not we can hold the 1.30 level, but obviously we are still in an uptrend regardless of what happens next. With that in mind I like the idea of buying dips but lied, I wish this dip with a little bit deeper because it gives you more room to run.

GBP/USD Video 04.08.20

Nonetheless, the market is looking very likely to find buyers sooner rather than later, and if we can take out the shooting star from the Friday session that would be a very strong sign. I am not a seller, and if we break down below the 1.30 level then I will simply look to pick up the British pound closer to the 1.2650 level, perhaps even the 1.2750 level.

The British pound has been extraordinarily strong, and I think that will continue to be the case as the Federal Reserve continues to weaken the US dollar in general. With this, it is almost as if Brexit is never going to be an issue, but I digress. At this point it is obvious that the FX markets are not paying attention to Brexit, and solely paying attention to the Federal Reserve and its loose monetary policy going forward.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Stalls Against Yen

The British pound has shown itself to be a little overextended against the Japanese yen during early trading on Monday, as the ¥139 level offers resistance yet again. That being said, this is a market that I think will eventually go looking towards the ¥140 level, and if we can clear that level continue to go much higher. I like buying dips, and quite frankly I would like to see a little bit bigger of a pullback in order to get involved. Nonetheless, if we break the ¥140 level to the upside it is likely that we go much further.

GBP/JPY Video 04.08.20

The 200 day EMA underneath has been cleared quite handily over the last couple of days, so I think it is only a matter of time before that would offer a longer-term support level, just as the ¥135 level has been previously. In fact, the 50 day EMA is sitting there at the ¥135 level, so I think that also offers a bit of psychological support as well. Ultimately, this pair desperately needs to take a break, and that might be what we are seeing right now.

Ultimately, I think that you will see a lot of volatility but given enough time I expect this market to go much higher. After all, we have seen a lot of bullish pressure in the British pound in general, so it is hard to imagine why that would change suddenly. In the meantime, I am simply observing what is going on and I recognize that we are in a massive move just waiting to happen.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Pulls Back Finally

The Euro has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but found the 1.18 level to be a bit too much, and then pulled back towards the 1.17 level. This is an area that will probably cause some support, but quite frankly it still a bit elevated. I think at this point we need to see the Euro consolidate a bit if nothing else.

EUR/USD Video 04.08.20

That being said, I do not like the idea of shorting this pair regardless. Even if we break down below the 1.17 level, it is very likely that we will find plenty of buyers underneath. In fact, I think there is a lot of support all the way down to the 1.15 level, so I am hoping to see a little bit more of a deeper correction and then take advantage of it.

To the upside I believe that we are going to go looking towards the 1.20 level eventually, but quite frankly I do not think that we get there overnight. This is a market that has been overbought for some time, so I think the healthiest thing we can do is either consolidate or pull back. After all, markets cannot go in one direction forever, despite the fact that they often tried to. I believe that the 1.15 level is now the “floor” in the market, and therefore I have no interest in shorting until we get well below that important figure.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Pulls Back

The Australian dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we have breached the 0.71 level to the downside heading into the New York session. That being said, there is significant support just below and I think that will continue to be the case. With that in mind I am looking to take advantage of any type of supportive action here as we have decidedly changed the overall attitude of the Aussie dollar over the last several months.

AUD/USD Video 04.08.20

Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns about the coronavirus out their still, but it seems like the FX markets are more or less worried about the Federal Reserve and its loose monetary policy above all else. That has benefited the Aussie dollar over the last couple of weeks, and should continue to do so, despite the fact that Melbourne Australia is currently under a bit of a lockdown due to the virus outbreak.

Federal Reserve liquidity is a main driver of markets around the world, and FX markets are not going to be any different. Quite frankly you need to buy other things to protect your wealth that based in US dollars, so the Australian dollar is probably as good as any other asset that you can think of. This could also be a bit of a play on the Chinese economy getting a bit better, but at this point I think that is just the sideshow and not the main attraction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.