GOLD Strongly Bearish Continuation Below the Double Bottom

Gold is strongly bearish. Continuation below double bottom will open the doors to 1656. Watch for a continuation below the double bottom or a rejection from the POC zone.

1700-10 is the POC zone, we could see a move straight from the POC towards a retest of 1687 zone. We should see a move lower towards 1667 and 1656. From there, the move up is expected as a form of retracement. Gold has also formed the double top which cues for a continuation down.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

AUD/USD Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Tries To Move Higher Against Australian Dollar

AUD/USD Video 08.03.21.

Australian Dollar Is Mostly Flat Against U.S. Dollar

AUD/USD has managed to settle below the support at 0.7700 while the U.S. dollar is gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to get above the resistance at the 92 level and moved closer to the next resistance level at 92.25. In case the U.S. Dollar Index settles above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 92.50 which will be bearish for AUD/USD.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be published in the U.S. and Australia today so foreign exchange market traders will focus on U.S. government bond yields and the dynamics of commodity markets.

U.S. Treasury yields are moving higher after Senate passed the huge coronavirus relief bill. The market believes that higher inflation is a real threat, although the U.S. Fed has downplayed such risks.

Meanwhile, commodity markets remain strong which is good for commodity-related currencies like Australian dollar. WTI oil managed to get to the $67 level after Saudi facilities were attacked by the Houthis, but rising U.S. yields offset the positive impact of strong oil for AUD/USD.

Technical Analysis

aud usd march 8 2021

AUD/USD is currently trying to get to the test of the support level at 0.7665. If AUD/USD declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at 0.7635. This support level has been recently tested and proved its strength.

In case AUD/USD settles below the support at 0.7635, it will head towards the next support level at 0.7600. RSI remains in the moderate territory so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for AUD/USD is located at 0.7700. If AUD/USD gets above this level, it will head towards the 50 EMA at 0.7720. A move above the 50 EMA will push AUD/USD towards the next resistance level which is located at the 20 EMA at 0.7760.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – In Position to Challenge Major Fibonacci Level at 92.310

The U.S. Dollar is trading higher against a basket of major currencies on Monday after clawing back from an earlier setback. The intraday rally has put the greenback in a position to challenge Friday’s three-month high.

Traders are saying the dollar is being underpinned after the U.S. Senate passage of a massive stimulus bill sparked another sell-off in the bond market, while commodity-linked currencies retreated as a broader risk-on trade lost momentum.

At 07:58 GMT, March U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 92.175, up 0.185 or +0.20%.

The Senate passed a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan, a day after a stunning U.S. jobs report sent the greenback to its highest level since November 2020. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hovered near one-year highs on Monday, while U.S. NASDAQ futures fell about 1% and European stock index futures pared gains as the selloff also spread to other higher risk assets.

In other news, speculators cut their net short dollar positions in the latest week to $27.80 billion, which is the smallest short position since December 15 and suggests that dollar bears are giving up on betting against the greenback.

Daily March U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 92.225 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The next main trend target is the November 23 top at 92.730.

A trade through 89.675 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely. However, since the index is up seven days from the last swing bottom, today’s session starts with the index in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The main range is 94.250 to 89.165. The index is currently testing the upper level of its retracement zone at 91.710 to 92.310. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

The minor range is 90.635 to 92.225. Its 50% level at 91.430 is additional support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Given the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the direction of the March U.S. Dollar Index will likely be determined by trader reaction to 92.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 92.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first targets are 92.225 and the main Fibonacci level at 92.310.

Taking out 92.310 could generate the upside momentum needed to challenge the November 23 main top at 92.730.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 92.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the main 50% level at 91.710. This is followed by the short-term 50% level at 91.430.

Side Notes

A close under 92.00 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend break.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Rising Yields, Trade Under .7732 Fueling Early Bearish Tone

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly better early Monday, but off its high. Despite Friday’s late session rebound rally, there was no follow-through rally. A stronger U.S. Dollar is weighing on the Aussie. The greenback was underpinned by higher U.S. Treasury yields. Sparking the rise in yields and the subsequent sell-off in the bond market was the U.S. Senate’s passage of a massive stimulus bill.

At 07:15 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7687, up 0.0006 or +-.07%.

The Senate passed a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan, a day after a stunning U.S. jobs report sent the greenback to its highest level since November 2020.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries hovered near one-year highs on Monday, while U.S. NASDAQ futures fell about 1% and European stock index futures pared gains as the selloff also spread to other risk assets.

The AUD/USD is going to have a hard time rallying without the help of lower Treasury yields and higher demand for riskier assets like stocks.

It’s not too early to start preparing for the March 17 Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. That being said, don’t be surprised if we see some short-covering and counter-trend buying this week as speculators position themselves ahead of the Fed’s announcements.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7622 will signal a resumption of the downtrend with .7564 the next potential downside target.

A trade through .8007 will change the main trend to up. This is not likely, but the AUD/USD is down seven days from its last main top, which puts it in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The main range is .7564 to .8007. The AUD/USD is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at .7733 to .7786. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair. This area is also new resistance.

The minor range is .8007 to .7622. If there is a short-covering rally then its retracement zone at .7815 to .7860 will become the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD will be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at .7733.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7732 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at .7676. This is followed by last week’s low at .7622.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7733 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into a pair of 50% levels at .7785 and .7815.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At 1.1900

EUR/USD Video 08.03.21.

Euro Is Losing Ground Against U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD is currently trying to settle below 1.1900 while the U.S. dollar is attempting to gain more ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to get above the resistance at the 92 level and is slowly moving towards the next resistance level which is located at 92.25. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets to the test of this level, EUR/USD will find itself under more pressure.

Today, foreign exchange market traders have  chance to take a look at Industrial Production report from Germany. Industrial Production decreased by 2.5% month-over-month in January compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 0.2%.

The disappointing report from Germany may put additional pressure on the euro which is moving lower because of Europe’s economic problems and rising yields in the U.S.

Currently, the yield of 10-year Treasuries is trying to settle above 1.59% while the yield of 30-year Treasuries is testing the 2.31% level. If Treasury yields continue to move higher, the U.S. dollar may get additional support.

Technical Analysis

eur usd march 8 2021

EUR/USD is currently trying to settle below the support level at 1.1900. RSI is close to the oversold territory but there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If EUR/USD settles below the support at 1.1900, it will head towards the next support level at 1.1880. A move below this level will push EUR/USD towards the next support at 1.1850. In case EUR/USD declines below the support at 1.1850, it will head towards the support at 1.1830.

On the upside, EUR/USD needs to stay above 1.1900 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for EUR/USD is located at 1.1925.

If EUR/USD gets above the resistance at 1.1925, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.1965. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.2000.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Conditions May Be Right for Counter-Trend Rally

Despite closing lower last week for the third consecutive time and taking out the June 5, 2020 bottom at $1704.60, the last weekly main bottom before the March 2020 main bottom at 1424.20 that started last year’s rally, there was a subtle sign that gold may have reached a short-term bottom. Before you get too excited, however, the market still has a lot of work to do on the upside before we’ll acknowledge the return of the bull.

Last week, April gold futures settled at $1698.50, down $30.30 or -1.75%.

Unlike last year when central banks and governments were implementing massive amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus, respectively, and the Fed was flooding the world with U.S. Dollars to provide liquidity at the start of the pandemic, any rally at this time is likely to be more complicated because a rise in global bond yields is indicating the central banks may be moving closer to tightening.

Conditions May Be Ripe for Short-Term Counter-Trend Rally

Nonetheless, there was a subtle move on Friday, that indicated to me that the buying may be greater than the selling at current price levels and perhaps, conditions were ripe for a short-term counter-trend rally.

Gold futures finished slightly lower on Friday after clawing back earlier losses. Despite reports in the press and from some lazy analysts, the market did not make its low of the session following the release of the stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

During the pre-market session, gold futures hit a low of $1683.00. Shortly after the release of the report, gold plunged to $1683.80. This is significant because it represents a potentially bullish divergence from U.S. Treasury yields which touched a new high for the year after the jobs data was released.

Although gold futures closed lower for the session on Friday, it actually closed higher than it was trading immediately before the release of the robust jobs report. In my opinion, this was an important event that could translate into higher prices this upcoming week.

Weekly Forecast

Fundamentally, the direction of the gold market will be determined by the movement in U.S. Treasury yields.

Higher yields should support the U.S. Dollar. A stronger U.S. Dollar should reduce foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold.

The dollar is likely to weaken if bond yields fall, driving up demand for gold.

Technically, the key level to watch is $1711.70. This long-term Fibonacci level is controlling the near-term direction of the gold market.

With Powell’s comments out of the way as well as the jobs report, we don’t expect to see any major developments in the market until the Fed’s monetary policy decisions are released on March 17. This creates the possibility of a counter-trend rally this week, driven by profit-taking and short-covering. It all depends, however, on what yields do.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – British Pound Is Flat Against U.S. Dollar At The Start Of The Week

GBP/USD Video 08.03.21.

Traders Focus On Yields In Absence Of Economic News

GBP/USD is currently trying to settle back above the resistance at 1.3835 while the U.S. dollar is flat against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is testing the nearest resistance level at 92.00. If this test is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next resistance level at 92.25 which will be bearish for GBP/USD.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be published in the U.S. and UK today so foreign exchange market traders will focus on general market sentiment and U.S. government bond market.

Treasury yields remain close to multi-month highs after U.S. Senate passed the huge coronavirus aid package. The market is worried about inflation so traders sell Treasuries, pushing their yields higher.

Rising yields continue to provide support to the American currency, but it remains to be seen whether further upside in yields will be able to help U.S. dollar as the huge stimulus bill may ultimately serve as a bearish catalyst.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd march 8 2021

GBP/USD is testing the nearest resistance level at 1.3835. If GBP/USD manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3865. This resistance level has been recently tested and proved its strength.

In case GBP/USD settles above 1.3865, it will head towards the next resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.3900. A move above the 20 EMA will signal that GBP/USD will try to gain upside momentum. In addition, GBP/USD will have a good chance to settle back in the 1.3900 – 1.4000 range which will be a welcome development for GBP/USD bulls.

On the support side, the nearest support level for GBP/USD is located at the 50 EMA at 1.3800. If GBP/USD declines below the 50 EMA, it will move towards the support at 1.3780. A move below the support at 1.3780 will push GBP/USD towards the next support level which is located at 1.3745. Most likely, GBP/USD will get significant support from traders at this level as there was plenty of interest near 1.3745 back in January.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Traders Eyeing US Supply Volatility, COVID-Related Demand Concerns

After a weak start last week on expected production hikes by OPEC+, U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil jumped higher following the decision by OPEC+, not to increase oil output, except to Russia and Kazakhstan.

The real surprise for traders was the discipline that OPEC and its allies displayed in showing adherence to its long-term plan to tighten supply and drive prices higher.

Furthermore, they showed great restraint in keeping output levels low in the wake of impressive vaccination numbers from the United States. Traders also shrugged off weaker demand numbers from China earlier in the week and a jump in the U.S. Dollar.

Last week, May WTI crude oil settled at $65.92, up $4.69 or +7.66% and May Brent crude oil finished at $69.36, up $4.94 or +7.12%.

On paper, the government’s crude oil inventories report was bearish, but traders know the numbers were skewed by the Texas Freeze two weeks ago so it will take some time to get a true feel for U.S. supply.

Bullish traders also received a gift from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who on Thursday, indicated he wasn’t rattled by a jump in U.S. Treasury yields on expectations of a surge in inflation. Powell said the Fed would stay the course and would not change policy sooner-than-expected.

Finally, the U.S. government reported a bigger-than-expected jump in Non-Farm Payrolls for February. This is early proof the economy is recovering, which also indicates that demand would likely increase at least over the short-term.

Weekly Forecast

With OPEC+ not likely to have an impact on prices until early May, the focus now shifts back to vaccinations, containment of the virus and U.S. supply. These are the factors likely to drive the price action this week.

As far as the vaccinations are concerned, the U.S. is making tremendous progress in the administration of vaccines. Last week, President Biden even said there would be enough vaccines available for every U.S. adult. This is a positive for future demand.

The containment of the virus is another thing, however. According to reports, major challenges stand in the way with some Americans ditching personal responsibility and forgoing masks, even as a highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant is spreading to at least 46 states and Washington, D.C.

“That strain is increasing exponentially. It’s spiking up,” said Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious diseases specialist and epidemiologist. “So we are probably right now on a tipping point of another surge.

The current rate of vaccinations might not be fast enough to fend off a major B.1.1.7 surge in the coming weeks.

The U.S. shouldn’t loosen coronavirus restrictions until daily new cases fall below 10,000, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

If the U.S. doesn’t contain the virus and cases start spiking higher again then prices may start to weaken because of renewed demand concerns. This is one of the reasons why OPEC+ did not vote to raise production in April. They are confident in the COVID-19 numbers yet.

Finally, last week, the government reported crude oil stockpiles surged by a record of more than 21 million barrels the week-ending February 26 as refining plunged to an all-time low due to the Texas freeze that knocked out power for millions. Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell sharply.

Look for the numbers to possibly swing sharply back in the other direction over the near-term. This could be a source of volatility in the markets over the near-term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – March 8th, 2021

EOS

EOS rose by 2.92% on Sunday. Following on from a 0.93% gain on Saturday, EOS ended the week up by 9.97% to $3.8327.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning intraday low $3.7079 before making a move.

Steering well clear of the first major support level at $3.6174, EOS rallied to a final hour intraday high $3.8711.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $3.8105 to end the day at $3.83 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.16% to $3.8267. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $3.9446 before falling to a low $3.7553.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $3.8999 early on before falling into the red.

EOSUSD 080321 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall back through the $3.8039 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.8999 back into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $3.85 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and this morning’s high $3.9446 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test resistance at $4.00 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3.9671.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $3.8039 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.7367 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$3.70 levels. The second major support level sits at $3.6407.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.7367

First Major resistance Level: $3.8999

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen rose by 2.74% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.79% loss from Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week up by 1.53% to $0.4126.

A bullish start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rally from an early morning intraday low $0.4017 to a late morning intraday high $0.4223.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.4094 and the second major resistance level at $0.4172.

The reversal saw Stellar’s Lumen fall back through the resistance levels to $0.4030 before a late move back through to $0.41 levels.

Stellar’s Lumen broke back through the first major resistance level to wrap up the week at $0.412 levels.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 0.72% to $0.4097. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.4218 before falling to a low $0.4082.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 080321 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move back through the pivot level at $0.4122 to bring the first major resistance level at $0.4228 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen break out from Sunday’s high $0.4223.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test the second major resistance level at $0.4328.

Failure to move back through the $0.4122 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.4022 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.40 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.3916.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

 

First Major Support Level: $0.4022

First Major Resistance Level: $0.4228

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3426

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2823

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1850

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX rose by 2.14% on Sunday. Following on from a 0.26% gain on Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week up by 12.62% to $0.05148.

A choppy start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning intraday low $0.04893 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.04806, Tron’s TRX rallied to a final hour intraday high $0.05354.

Tron’s TRX broke through the first major resistance level at $0.05217 before falling back to end the day at sub-$0.052 levels.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 1.24% to $0.05084. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.05287 before falling back to a low $0.05027.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 080321 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX need to move back through the pivot level at $0.05132 to bring the first major resistance level at $0.05370 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.053 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $0.05354 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.055 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.05593.

Failure to move back through the $0.05132 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.04909 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of sub-$0.048 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.04671.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.04909

First Major Resistance Level: $0.05370

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.03211

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0428

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0648

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – March 8th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 4.31% on Sunday. Following a 0.07% gain from Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week up by 12.62% to $51,000.00.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rally to late afternoon high $51,350.0 before hitting reverse.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $49,679 and the second major resistance level at $50,498.

The pullback saw Bitcoin slide back to $49,700 levels before a late rally.

Finding support at the first major resistance level at $49,679, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high $51,442.0.

Bitcoin broke back through the second major resistance level at $50,498 to wrap up the week at $51,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the return to $51,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $24,751 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bullish day on Sunday.

Binance Coin  (+5.95%) and Crypto.com Coin (+5.53%) led the way.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+4.11%), Ethereum (+4.63%), and  Litecoin (+4.30%) also found strong support.

Cardano’s ADA (+0.02%), Chainlink (+1.67%), Polkadot (+0.87%), and Ripple’s XRP (+0.33%) trailed the front runners, however.

For the week, it was a mixed week for the majors, however.

Cardano’s ADA slid by 14.14% to lead the way down, with Polkadot falling by 7.97% to buck the trend.

It was a bullish week for the rest of the majors.

Crypto.com Coin and Ethereum rallied by 20.78% and by 21.55% respectively to lead the way.

Binance Coin (+13.89%), Chainlink (+15.63%), Litecoin (+15.20%), and Ripple’s XRP (+11.88%) also found strong support.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+8.32%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,347bn before rising to a Wednesday high $1,600bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,567bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Tuesday high 62.40% before falling to a Saturday low 60.44%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 61.13%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.18% to $51,603.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $50,891.0 before rising to a high $51,682.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Binance Coin (-0.44%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.75%), and Polkadot (-0.74%) saw red early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 2.25% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 080321 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $50,446 to bring the first major resistance level at $51,996 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from this morning’s high $51,682.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $52,000 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $54,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $52,993.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $50,446 pivot would bring the first major support level at $49,449 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear sub-$49,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $47,899.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – March 8th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 4.63% on Sunday. Following an 8.05% rally from Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 21.55% to $1,728.22.

Relatively range-bound through most of the day, Ethereum fell to an early afternoon intraday low $1,631.07 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $1,559, Ethereum rallied to a final hour intraday high $1,735.00.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $1,698 to end the week at $1,700 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.10% to $1,747.17 A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $1,727.95 to a high $1,751.94.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 080321 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $1,698 to support another run at the first major resistance level at $1,765.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from the morning high $1,751.94.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $1,800 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $1,850 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1,802.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $1,698 pivot would bring the first major support level at $1,661 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$1,600 levels. The second major support level sits at $1,594.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1,661

Pivot Level: $1,698

First Major Resistance Level: $1,765

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,579

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,292

62% FIB Retracement Level: $830

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 4.30% on Sunday. Following on from a 1.38% gain on Saturday, Litecoin ended the week up by 15.20% to $190.74

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a mid-morning intraday low $182.33 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $177, Litecoin rallied to a final hour intraday high $192.14.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $187 and the second major resistance level at $190 to end the week at $190 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 1.73% to $194.04. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise from an early morning low $190.70 to a high $194.84.

Litecoin tested the first major resistance level at $195 and the 23.6% FIB of $195 early on.

LTCUSD 080321 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $188 pivot level to support another run at the first major resistance level at $195 and the 23.6% FIB.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to hold onto $194 levels early on.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and 23.6% FIB would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test resistance at $200 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $198.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $188 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $185 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $179.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $185

Pivot Level: $188

First Major Resistance Level: $195

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $195

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $163

62% FIB Retracement Level: $110

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by a modest 0.33% on Sunday. Following on from a 1.79% gain on Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week up by 11.88% to $0.46613.

It was a choppy start to the day. Ripple’s XRP rose to a late morning intraday high $0.46885 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.4729, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late intraday low $0.45712.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.4516, Ripple’s XRP moved back through to $0.465 levels to end the day in the green.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.44% to $0.46782. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.46595 before rising to a high $0.46897.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 080321 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.4639 pivot level and the 38.2% FIB of $0.4632 to bring the first major resistance level at $0.4707 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.47 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.48 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.4756.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.4639 pivot and the 38.2% FIB would bring the first major support level at $0.4590 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.45 levels. The second major support level at $0.4522 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.4590

Pivot Level: $0.4639

First Major resistance Level: $0.4707

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5320

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4632

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3521

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

European Equities: German Industrial Production and China in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Monday, 8th March

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)

Tuesday, 9th March

German Trade Balance (Jan)

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4)

Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Final

Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q4) Final

Thursday, 11th March

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)

ECB Press Conference

Friday, 12th March

German CPI (MoM) (Feb)

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Feb)

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Feb)

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)

The Majors

It was a bearish end to the week for the European majors on Friday.

On Friday, the DAX30 fell by 0.96%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the day with losses of 0.82% and 0.78% respectively.

Economic data from Germany and the U.S failed to reverse losses from early in the day, as U.S Treasury yields climbed further.

For the European markets, it had also been the first opportunity to respond to FED Chair Powell’s post-European session speech.

A lack of commitment to address yields led to a pullback in the U.S equities, which spilled into the European session.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar on Friday.  German factory orders were in focus going into the European open.

In January, factory orders increased by 1.4%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 0.7% increase. In December, orders had fallen by 1.9%.

According to Destatis,

  • Compared with January 2020, new orders were up 2.5% and by 3.7% when compared with February 2020.
  • Domestic orders slid by 2.6%, while foreign orders increased by 4.2%, month-on-month.
  • New orders from the euro area rose 3.9%, with new orders from other countries jumping by 4.4%.
  • Manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 0.2%, with new orders of capital goods up 3.3%.
  • Consumer goods manufacturers, however, reported a 5.8% slide in new orders.

From the U.S

It was a busier session, with official government labor market figures for February in focus late in the European session.

Nonfarm payrolls impressed, with a 379K jump in February. The better than expected rise took the unemployment rate down from 6.3% to 6.2%.

In January, nonfarm payrolls had risen by a more modest 166k.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Friday. Volkswagen rallied by 3.68%, with Daimler rising by 1.32%. BMW and Continental saw relatively modest gains of 0.90% and 0.45% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rallied by 3.59%, with Commerzbank gaining by 0.92%.

From the CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas fell by 0.12%, while Credit Agricole and Soc Gen ended the day with gains of 0.87% and 0.57% respectively.

The French auto sector saw further losses. Stellantis NV and Renault fell by 1.04% and by 1.60% respectively.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE ended the day down by 6.13% and by 4.87% respectively.

On the VIX Index

A run of 3 consecutive days in the green came to an end for the VIX on Friday. Reversing a 7.12% rise from Thursday, the VIX slid by 13.69% to end the day at 24.66.

The NASDAQ rose by 1.55%, with the Dow and S&P500 gaining by 1.85% and by 1.95% respectively.

VIX 08321 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s quieter day ahead on the European economic calendar. German industrial production figures for January are due out later this morning.

With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect the numbers to influence going into the European session.

From the U.S, there are no material stats to provide direction, leaving the majors in the hands of FOMC member chatter and chatter from Capitol Hill.

Ahead of the European open, any updates from China’s National People’s Congress will need considering.

Trade data from China will also set the tone.

In February, China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus widened from $78.17bn to $103.25bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $60.00bn.

Year-on-year, exports jumped by 60.6%, following an 18.1% increase in January. Economists had forecast a 38.9% surge.

Imports rose by 22.2%, following a 6.5% increase in January. Economists had forecast a 15.0% jump.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 101 points with the DAX up by 133 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves Stats from Germany and the EUR in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly quiet start to the week on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide the majors with direction through the Asian session.

The lack of stats will leave the majors in the hands of chatter from the National People’s Congress that got underway last Friday.

From the weekend, trade data from China set the tone, however.

In February, China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus widened from $78.17bn to $103.25bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $60.00bn.

Year-on-year, exports jumped by 60.6%, following an 18.1% increase in January. Economists had forecast a 38.9% surge.

Imports rose by 22.2%, following a 6.5% increase in January. Economists had forecast a 15.0% jump.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.26% to  $0.7706, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.21% to $0.7182. The Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥108.36 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. German industrial production figures for January are due out later this morning.

Forecasts are EUR positive, though only marginally. A fall in factory orders in December suggests some uncertainty ahead of the release.

While we can expect sensitivity to the numbers, however, recent manufacturing PMIs should limit the impact of any weak numbers.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.08% to $1.1925.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.3849.

Across the Pond

It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. A lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of FOMC member chatter and news from Capitol Hill.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.05% to 91.934.

For the Loonie

There are no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of China trade data from Sunday and chatter from the National People’s Congress.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.17% to C$1.2637 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 92.310, Weakens Under 91.705

The U.S. Dollar soared on Friday after a government report showed jobs growth came in above expectations in February. The news helped drive the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield into a one-year high of 1.625%, before pulling back to 1.577 into the close.

The data backed up the view of Federal Reserve officials including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who have said that a recent rise in U.S. government bond yields is justified by an improving economic outlook.

The jobs improvement came amid falling new COVID-19 cases, quickening vaccination rates and additional pandemic relief money from the government, putting the labor market recovery back on firmer footing and on course for further gains in the months ahead.

On Friday, March U.S. Dollar Index futures settled at 91.990, up 0.346 or +0.38%.

Big Decision on Monday

Over the weekend, the U.S. Senate passed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package on Saturday as Democrats rush to send out a fresh round of aid.

This news will be the source of volatility on Monday because there are two ways to play the story.

Bullish traders will read the news as driving the economic recovery at an even faster pace on top of Friday’s bullish jobs data. If this drives up Treasury yields then look for demand for the dollar to strengthen.

Bearish traders will view the story as weak for the U.S. Dollar. A drop in yields will help drive the greenback lower.

It’s a tough call because the story has been in the news for months. We won’t really know how traders feel about it until we see what bond yields do. However, if Friday’s price action is any indication, yields should fall, stocks should rise and the dollar weaken.

Daily March U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 92.225 will signal a resumption of the uptrend with 92.730 the next key target price.

A trade through 89.675 will change the main trend to down. This is not likely, but price and time have put the index in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 90.635 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 94.250 to 89.165. The index is currently testing the top end of its retracement zone at 91.705 to 92.310. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The minor range is 89.675 to 92.225. Its 50% level at 91.430 is the first downside target.

The short-term range is 89.165 to 92.225. Its retracement zone at 90.695 to 90.335 is the next key support area.

Short-Term Outlook

Friday’s price action suggests the direction of the March U.S. Dollar Index on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to 92.310.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 92.310 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the November 23 main top at 92.370. This is potential resistance and trigger point for an acceleration into the November 11 main top at 93.165.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 92.300 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the main 50% level at 91.705. This is followed by the minor 50% level at 91.430. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the short-term retracement zone at 90.695 to 90.335.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Formed Potentially Bullish Reversal Bottom on Friday

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures posted a dramatic closing price reversal bottom on Friday after touching its lowest level since November 30 earlier in the session. For those scoring at home, this means the recent sell-off has taken away three-month’s worth of gains, while turning the index lower for the year.

None-the-less, we have to respect the chart pattern because if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a minimum 2 to 3 day correction or a 50% to 61.8% correction of the entire break from 13900.50 to 12207.25.

On Friday, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 12663.75, up 208.75 or +1.65%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, the closing price reversal bottom suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the upside.

A trade through 12207.25 will negate the closing price reversal bottom, signaling a resumption of the downtrend.

A move through Friday’s high at 12797.00 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom, while a move through 13328.25 turns the main trend to up.

The main range is 10936.25 to 13900.50. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 12418.25 to 12068.50 stopped the selling on Friday at 12207.25.

The minor range is 13328.25 to 12207.25. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 12767.75 to 12900.00 is the first upside target area.

The short-term range is 13900.50 to 12207.25. Its retracement zone target is 13054.00 to 13253.75.

The minor and short-term retracement zone are very important to the longer-term structure of the market. Sellers could come in on a test of these areas in an effort to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Short-Term Outlook

The closing price reversal bottom chart pattern indicates the direction of the index on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to 12797.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12797.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is the minor 50% level at 12767.75, followed by last year’s close at 12885.50 and the minor Fibonacci level at 12900.00.

Turning higher for the year and taking out 12900.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the short-term retracement zone at 13054.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12797.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of the main 50% level at 12418.25. This is followed by the closing price reversal bottom at 12207.25, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 12068.50.

Side Notes

Over the week-end, the U.S. Senate passed President Joe Biden’s Covid Relief Package. Although this has been in the news for weeks, we could see a bullish reaction on Monday. Furthermore, the price action on Friday suggests Treasury yields may have hit a short-term top. If this come off the highs strong then look for NASDAQ stocks to soar.

Additionally, it’s not too early to think about the Fed’s monetary policy decisions on March 17. With Powell’s speech out of the way and the bullish jobs data, there isn’t a lot to think about so traders could begin to take profits and square positions ahead of the FOMC meeting. This could trigger a short-covering rally in the NASDAQ.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Strong Move Over $1711.70 Could Mean Gold Hit Bottom on Friday

Gold futures finished slightly lower on Friday after clawing back earlier losses. Despite reports in the press and from some lazy analysts, the market did not make its low of the session following the release of the stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

During the pre-market session, gold futures hit a low of $1683.00. Shortly after the release of the report, gold plunged to $1683.80. This is significant because it represents a potentially bullish divergence from U.S. Treasury yields which touched a new high for the year after the jobs data was released.

Although gold futures closed lower for the session on Friday, it actually closed higher than it was trading immediately before the release of the robust jobs report. In my opinion, this was an important event that could translate into higher prices this upcoming week.

On Friday, April Comex gold futures settled at $1698.50, down $2.20 or -0.13%.

More importantly, at 13:30 GMT, gold was trading $1693.70. So following the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, gold closed up $4.80 or +0.28%.

Daily April Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1683.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1815.20.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1739.10 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The major retracement zone is $1711.70 to $1787.30. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. Gold closed on the weak side of this zone, but just below the lower or Fibonacci level at $1711.70.

The minor range is $1815.20 to $1683.00. Its 50% level at $1749.10 is the first short-term upside target price.

The short-term range is $1966.80 to $1683.00. If the main trend changes to up then look for the rally to extend into its retracement zone at $1824.90 to $1858.40.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the April Comex gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $1711.70.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1711.70 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is Friday’s low at $1683.00, followed by the April 21, 2020 bottom at $1683.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1711.70 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to extend into the minor bottom at $1739.10. This is followed by the minor 50% level at $1749.10.

The 50% level at $1749.10 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into at least the major 50% level at $1787.30.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Sentiment Shift Rekindles Bullish Tone

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures bounced back from a series of setbacks on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data boosted optimism for a speedier economic recovery. The blue chip average received an additional boost as Treasury bond yields eased after soaring earlier in the session in reaction to government report.

On Friday, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 31465, up 587 or +1.87%.

The Dow was led higher by components Apple and Microsoft, which gained 1% and 2% respectively.

While an optimistic outlook for the economy may have stop the selling pressure on Friday, price climbed throughout the session as bond yields retreated from their session highs. The 10-year Treasury yield eased back to 1.55% after popping above 1.6% to touch a 2021 high following data showing a surge in jobs growth.

In breaking news, the Dow could rally early Monday in reaction to the news that the Senate passed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package on Saturday as Democrats rush to send out a fresh round of aid. Although the news may have been priced into the market for weeks, the announcement could trigger strong kneejerk buying especially since some shares have hit oversold territory.

Daily March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 30512 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through the record high at 32033.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 31637 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 32033 to 30512. On Friday, the Dow closed on the strong side of its 50% level at 31273. Trader reaction to this level is likely to set the tone on Monday.

The short-term range is 29552 to 32033. Its 50% level at 30793 is support.

The main range is 23918 to 32033. Its retracement zone at 30676 to 30355 stopped the selling last week at 30512.

The Dow also found support when buyers came in to defend the December 31 close at 30497.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 31273.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31273 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at 31637. Taking out this level could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the record high at 32033.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31273 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into a series of potential support levels at 30793, 30676, 30497 and 30355.

Side Notes

Given the positive news over the weekend, we should know on the pre-market opening whether investors consider the passing of the COVID relief bill as bullish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Update – Upside Momentum Strong; Closing Price Reversal Top Will Be First Sign of Weakness

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures soared over 3% on Friday, falling short of its contract high reached in October 2018. The rally was fueled primarily by Thursday’s decision by OPEC and its allies not to increase production in April. Prices continued to accelerate on Friday after the U.S. government released a report showing the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in February.

On Friday, May WTI crude oil settled at $65.92, up $2.30 or +3.62%.

Despite the strong rally, the market could start facing some headwinds if the U.S. Dollar continues to move higher. A strong greenback tends to reduce foreign demand for the dollar-denominated asset.

Additionally, analysts and traders have said that slow physical crude sales and recovery for demand not predicted until around the third quarter suggest that the price rally is unwarranted.

Given the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the best sign of a major top will be a closing price reversal top chart pattern on both the daily and weekly charts.

Daily May WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $66.23 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through the October 3, 2018 main top at $66.92 will reaffirm the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a move through $59.08. This is not likely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, we should start watching for a dramatic closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend to down, but it will be an early indication that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The new minor range is $59.08 to $66.23. Its retracement zone at $62.66 to $61.81 is the first downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

If you read my analysis daily then you know I use the entire futures contract for my analysis rather than the nearby futures chart. I feel this gives me more accurate support/resistance levels and price targets. Using the nearby chart creates problems because not everyone agrees on when to rollover. The first of the month, the last day, the first day of the rollover, and sometimes when volume drops, these are all use to determine the trading range during the last month of trading.

Sometimes it’s accurate. This usually occurs when there aren’t any wide price swings during the delivery month. But sometimes it’s the highs and lows used are different if there are volatile price swings during the delivery month.

Last May when prices turned negative on the last trading day is one example. If you rolled over the first notice day, the low price doesn’t exist. If you rolled over the last trading day then you see the low.

That being said, I prefer using the entire contract being traded. My May WTI crude oil chart shows the contract high was reached on October 3, 2018 at $66.92. This is my target this week.

Taking out $66.92 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the psychological $70 level the next upside target.

Taking out $66.92 then closing below $65.92 on Monday will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2 to 3 day correction. The sell-off could extend even further if the market forms a closing price reversal top on the weekly chart.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Covid Relief News Could Fuel Follow-Through Rally

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed higher on Friday, reversing a three-day setback, as government data showing faster-than-expected monthly jobs growth reinforced bets on an economic rebound driven by massive fiscal stimulus and vaccination drives.

The rally came as a surprise after robust non-farm payrolls data drove the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a new one-year high of 1.626%.

On Friday, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 3839.00, up 73.50 or +1.91%.

All major S&P 500 sectors rose, led by gains in energy and financial stocks. Rate-sensitive bank stocks rose about 1.6% on prospects of an improved economic outlook.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3720.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 3934.50.

The minor range is 3959.25 to 3720.50. Its 50% level at 3840.00 stopped the buying on Friday, but will be an important pivot on Monday.

The short-term 50% level at 3807.75 and the intermediate 50% level at 3777.50 is support.

The main range is 3216.25 to 3959.25. Its retracement zone at 3587.75 to 3500.00 is the major support zone controlling the longer-term trend.

Short-Term Outlook

Based on Friday’s price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 3840.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3840.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a near-term surge into 3934.50. Taking it out could lead to a test of the record high at 3959.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3839.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a labored break into a pair of 50% levels at 3807.75 and 3777.50.

If 3777.50 fails as support then look for a retest of last week’s low at 3720.50.

Side Notes

The market could start off on a strong note on Monday after the Senate passed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package on Saturday as Democrats rush to send out a fresh round of aid. Although the news has probably been priced into the market for weeks, we could see some knee-jerk buying especially in the wake of Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Sustained Move Under 108.230 Will Be First Sign of Weakness

The Dollar/Yen surged to its highest level since June on Friday as remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and better-than-expected U.S. jobs data drove Treasury yields sharply higher. The move widened the spread between U.S. Government bonds and Japanese Government bonds, making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive asset.

On Friday, the USD/JPY settled at 108.391, up 0.409 or +0.38%.

Powell set the wheels in motion for the rally on Thursday when he expressed no concern about a recent sell-off in bonds and stuck to his stance of keeping interest rates low for a long time. Powell also said the current jump in Treasury yields was not “disorderly” or likely to push long-term rates so high the Fed might have to intervene more forcefully.

Buyers continued to drive the USD/JPY on Friday after data showed jobs growth beat expectations in February. The news also backed up the view of Federal Reserve policymakers who said the volatility in the bond market is justified by an improving economic outlook.

The jobs improvement came amid falling new COVID-19 cases, quickening vaccination rates and additional pandemic relief money from the government. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda said that the BOJ has no need to change its yield guidance.

Daily USD/JPY

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 108.645 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 104.923. This is highly unlikely, but the prolonged move up in terms of price and time has put the USD/JPY in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This won’t change the main trend to down, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The main range is 111.715 to 102.593. The USD/JPY is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 108.230 to 107.154. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

The minor range is 104.923 to 108.645. Its retracement zone at 106.784 to 106.345 is another potential downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the USD/JPY early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 108.230.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 108.230 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is last week’s high at 108.645. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the June 5, 2020 main top at 109.849 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 108.230 will signal the return of sellers. If this move creates enough momentum over the near-term then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main 50% level at 107.154.

Side Notes

With two major events out of the way:  Powell’s speech and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, investors may decide to start booking profits and positioning themselves ahead of the March 17 policy announcements from the Fed. Don’t be surprised by the start of a choppy, two-sided trade.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.