Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Drift Lower

It should be noted that next year, we will see a historically low amount of natural gas produced. This is for a multitude of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that there will probably be bankruptcies. Beyond that, pricing simply doesn’t allow the kind of massive amount of drilling and production that we have seen. Quite frankly, a slew of bankruptcies would be the best thing that could happen for this commodity, because it has gotten far too abundant. Having said that, the market looks as if it is going to continue going lower for a while, we should see some type of turnaround based upon the fact that we are very extended, but we aren’t there yet. Because of this, the market is likely to continue going towards the $1.60 level underneath.

NATGAS Video 10.04.20

Alternately, if the market breaks above the two point to zero dollars level, it’s likely that the market can rally another $0.20 or so. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to see a lot of noise, but I still favor the downside as this is a market that is far too overabundant and obviously the longer-term trend is negative. That being said, I also don’t necessarily think that we are going to break down below the lows though, which has the $1.50 level underneath. If we were to break down below there who knows what would happen next, as it would be extraordinarily negative. On the other hand, if we were to break above the 200 day EMA which is closer to the $2.20 level, it’s likely that the market will continue to go even further. At this point though, I like shorting the market on rallies that show signs of exhaustion.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Rally Towards Highs Again

Gold markets rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the $1700 level. By doing so, the market looks like it is going to try to break out to the upside and it makes quite a bit of sense considering that the Federal Reserve is now buying all kinds of assets including junk bonds. If that’s going to be the case, it will put a certain amount of downward pressure on the US dollar. However, there are those out there that would also equate the Federal Reserve and its massive actions as a sign of serious trouble, perhaps having money flow into gold as a safety trade. Either way, both of these are signs that gold should go higher over the longer term.

Gold Price Predictions Video 10.04.20

On the other end, the market does break down below the 50 day EMA, something that is $129 below where we are currently trading, then the market would change. Until then, I think this is a market that is simply going to be a “buy on the dips” type of situation. We are in an uptrend, and there is no reason to fight that right now, so looking for value is probably the best way going forward. For the long term, I believe that the market will probably go looking towards the $1800 level, possibly even the $2000 level over the next several weeks or months, but I do believe that the trend is set, so at this point I’m not even looking for selling opportunities rather I am looking for value.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Set Up for Bearish Closing Price Reversal Top

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are treading higher on Thursday shortly after the cash market opening. The technology-driven index recovered from earlier weakness after data showed jobless claims fell last week and the Fed announced a broad $2.3 trillion effort to bolster local governments and small and mid-sized businesses.

The Federal Reserve announced a slew of programs that will total up to $2.3 trillion. CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on “Squawk Box” on Thursday, “This Fed is the most aggressive Fed. They do not want to be known as the reason why we went into a depression. I’m very impressed.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department said more than 6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. Traders had priced in an increase of 5 million.

At 14:49 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 8220.50, up 30.75 or +0.38%. This is down from an intraday high of 8326.25.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session. A trade through 7376.00 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 9780.50 to 6628.75. Its retracement zone at 8304.75 to 8653.00 is a strong resistance area. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The intermediate range is 9006.75 to 6628.75. Its retracement zone at 8098.25 to 7817.75 is potential support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 8220.50, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrend Gann angle at 8016.00 and the major 50% level at 8304.75.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a move over 8016.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a breakout to the upside with the next major target a potential resistance cluster at 8653.00 to 8660.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 8304.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the Fibonacci level at 8098.25, followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 8016.00.

Taking out 8016.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target a 50% level at 7817.75, followed by another uptrending Gann angle at 7696.00.

Side Notes

A close under 8189.75 will produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Quiet Against Japanese Yen

The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen, showing signs of confusion at this point, as the market is dancing around the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA simultaneously. The moving averages of course will cause a lot of confusion as the markets look to them for guidance on longer-term charts. That being said, this is a market that is confused to say the least, so at this point I think it’s very difficult to make a position play based upon this chart right now, so I think it’s ultimately a chart that should be used as a secondary indicator for the strength or weakness of the Japanese yen. In other words, if we see this market break down, then I think what you might want to do is start looking towards trading the Japanese yen against other currencies.

USD/JPY Video 10.04.20

For example, if you see weakness in the Australian dollar, then you should be shorting the AUD/JPY pair if this chart is also falling. On the other hand, if the pair rallied significantly from here, it’s possible that the AUD/USD rising as well triangulate towards a long position in the AUD/JPY pair. In other words, this chart is essentially a tool at the moment, not necessarily a market that we should be looking to trade per se. The ¥111 level above is an area where I could find sellers, and therefore would be looking for short positions. On the other hand, the ¥105 level underneath should offer plenty of support. At that point I would be looking for buying opportunities.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Pressing Major Resistance Barrier Again

The reddish pound has found strength again during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of noise out there that is going to continue to cause major issues. After all, the world is of course dealing with a major “risk off” type of event, but at the same time it should be noted that with the Federal Reserve willing to step in and buy several different assets, including junk bonds which is something that they’ve never done. In other words, they are going to make sure that the world avoids a credit crunch, which was a major problem with the economy when it came to the 2008 situation.

GBP/USD Video 10.04.20

Looking at the chart, it’s obvious that this is an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to. With that being the case, it’s very likely that the markets will explode to the upside if we can break above there, but we cannot, this could be the end of the line for the buyers. With the massive pressure in this pair, it’s a bit difficult to make that trade until we get some type of confirmation, so the close on Thursday will be crucial as Friday is heading into the weekend and a lot of people are cautious about holding risk over the weekend. Simply put, if we can break 1.25 before we close out the weekend, that would be an extraordinarily bullish case for this pair. If not, that means we are more choppiness ahead.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Breaks Out Against Japanese Yen

The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to break out and show signs of life again. Ultimately, the market should continue to see a lot of volatility but with the Federal Reserve stepping in and offering a massive amount of liquidity, it should be noted that there are a lot of good signs out there for risk appetite, as the Federal Reserve is willing to buy just about anything that isn’t nailed down to the floor. Remember, the reserve is essentially the world’s central bank, as a lot of other policies flow either directly from there or in other indirect ways. In other words, we have suddenly seen another reason to see yet another leg of “risk on” type of attitude.

GBP/JPY Video 10.04.20

Now that the market has broken above the ¥135 level, it’s very likely to go looking towards the ¥137 level above, which is where the gap is. Because of this, I believe that it’s only a matter of time before reset level, and I think it will take just a few good days to get there. To the downside, the ¥135 level should now offer support, based upon market memory. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is right there at the 200 day EMA, so all of this kind of lines up perfectly in a technical analysis standpoint. With that in mind, I bullish until we fill that gap at the least. You can also make an argument for a bullish flag just being broken to the upside, which could lead to a move all the way to the 100% Fibonacci retracement level but that obviously would take a significant amount of time.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Chop Back and Forth With Positive Thursday

The Euro has rallied during the trading session on Thursday after the Federal Reserve has suggested that the central bank was going to come out and buy just about anything it could, including junk bonds. That being the case, the market is likely to continue punishing the US dollar, but at the same time the European Union is an absolute mess financially. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see Euro weakness in general. The 1.10 level above is massive resistance, so I don’t think that the pair get above there. When we get closer to the 1.10 level I going to be selling on signs of weakness.

EUR/USD Video 10.04.20

To the downside, I see the 1.08 level as support, and the 1.06 level as the same. This pair will continue to chop around, thereby been very difficult to trade unless you can trade small or perhaps trade short-term charts. I favor the downside in this pair, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is flooding the market with dollars. This will probably cause a short-term pop to the upside, but I suspect it will also be short-lived.

You can use this as a proxy for the US Dollar Index if your broker doesn’t offer it, because it is a major component to that indicator. Simply put, I use this chart as a gauge of US dollar strength or weakness in other trades, especially when it comes to emerging market currencies. For example, you can do something like use this chart to discern whether the US dollar is showing strength or weakness, and translate that against the Hungarian forint, Mexican peso, South African Rand, and so on.

Oil Swings Between Gains And Losses Ahead Of OPEC+ Talks

Oil Video 09.04.20.

Key Negotiations Begin

Oil is having a choppy trading session, waiting for the results of the key OPEC+ meeting. Early reports suggest that both Russia and Saudi Arabia are ready to commit to meaningful production cuts but they want other countries to participate in the deal.

The U.S. believes that its oil production will decline “automatically” so there is no need to get into formal production cut agreements. Russia is not satisfied with this approach since it fears that U.S. shale oil companies will simply increase their market share at the expense of OPEC+ countries.

Russia has indicated that it may cut is oil production by as much as 2 million barrels per day (bpd) if the agreement is reached. However, it is not clear how much time will be required to implement such production cuts.

Previously, Russia has stated that it was difficult for the country to cut oil production due to the nature of deposits and cold climate. Saudi Arabia and U.S. are in better position to quickly adjust their oil production, but all major producers will have to participate in the deal – or there will be no deal at all.

Is The 10 Million Bpd Cut Big Enough To Improve The Supply/Demand Balance?

Russian oil company Rosneft stated that it believed that a 10 million bpd cut would be sufficient enough to rebalance the market. Rosneft estimates that 2020 oil demand will be lower by 5 million – 7 million bpd compared to 2019 levels.

In my opinion, this is an optimistic estimate. At this point, it looks like major countries will start to re-open their economies in May. However, everyone will be afraid of the second wave of the virus since the world economy cannot take another blow.

Thus, virus containment measures will be lifted gradually. In such environment, it’s hard to expect that oil demand will soon return to normal levels. While the equity market appears to be very optimistic despite the negative data, oil is a physical product, and real-life economic activity will ultimately dictate its price.

The economic projects look grim, especially in the near term. PIMCO, which is one of the biggest investment funds, predicted that U.S. GDP could fall by as much as 30% in the second quarter and 5% for the full year.

Similar hits to GDP would be seen all over the world. In this environment, a 10 million bpd cut may not be sufficient enough to balance the market. However, it would be a huge step forward if oil producers overcome their differences and agree to any coordinated action to curb supply.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – The Australian Dollar Breaks To Extreme Highs

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the highs of the previous session. The Australian dollar reached towards the 0.63 level, and as a result it looks as if we are going to see more buying given enough time. Ultimately, if the market pulls back from here there should be plenty of buyers underneath. That being said, it doesn’t mean that we go straight up in the air, and quite frankly we are still looking at a scenario where headlines for the market around. However, the Federal Reserve looking to liquefy all markets out there suggest that the US dollar could lose a certain amount of value. That being said, there are still a lot of concerns out there, so being cautious is still the order of the day.

AUD/USD Video 10.04.20

Underneath, the 0.62 level should now offer support so a revisit to that area could bring in buyers. A breakdown below that level could throw more doubt into the scenario, but at this point it certainly looks as if the Aussie is trying to make a serious turn around. The market should continue to see a lot of volatility and of course the Australian dollar will be a huge center of that volatility as it is so highly levered to China. To the upside, if we can clear the 0.63 handle, it’s very likely we could go towards the 0.65 level. That is a major level, and it should be noted that these big figures tend to attract a lot of attention. Expect volatility, so keep your position size small.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Strong Over 23796, Weak Under 23571

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market open after the Federal Reserve game more details on how it will support the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic. The Fed announced a slew of programs, including loans geared towards small and medium sized businesses, that will total up to $2.3 trillion.

At 13:31 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 23631, up 385 or +1.66%.

The Fed announcement was enough to outweigh another massive jump in weekly jobless claims. More than 6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits the week-ending April 4. Economists were looking for an increase of 5 million.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Taking out Tuesday’s high signaled a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a break through the last main bottom at 20500.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 22244 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The intermediate range is 26962 to 18086. The market is currently straddling is retracement zone at 22524 to 23571.

The main range is 29506 to 18086. Its retracement zone at 23796 to 25144 is the primary upside target.

Combining the two retracement zones creates a resistance cluster at 23571 to 23796. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 23631, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 23571 and 23796.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 23796 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out this level could drive the Dow into a downtrending Gann angle at 24386.

Overtaking 24386 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target the Fibonacci level at 25144.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 23571 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of the uptrending Gann angle at 23060.

Crossing to the weak side of 23060 could trigger a break into the 50% level at 22524.

A failure to hold 22524 could trigger a break into the minor bottom at 22244, followed by a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 21780 and 21414.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Continues Its Upside Move

Silver Video 09.04.20.

Weaker Dollar And Optimistic Equity Markets Help Silver Gain More Ground

Silver continues its previous upside trend following the release of U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, which showed that 6.6 million of Americans filed for unemployment benefits.

The U.S. stock market was swinging between gains and losses on the news, but so far showed no signs of panic due to the grim data.

The U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies, and the U.S. Dollar Index has slipped below the psychologically important 100 level. The U.S. dollar weakness is bullish for silver since it makes it more affordable for buyers who have other currencies.

The situation with coronavirus stabilizes, and European countries have already started to work on plans regarding how to reopen their economies. Obviously, the current virus containment measures will be lifted gradually since no one wants to risk provoking a second wave of infection.

However, the talk about reopening the economy after weeks of never-ending bad news is already sufficient enough to encourage investors.

Gold is showing upside, and it looks like the stage may be set for another leg up in the precious metal markets. A combination of positive equity market performance and weaker U.S. dollar is exactly what silver needs to have more upside in the current market environment.

Technical Analysis

silver april 9 2020

Silver prices have settled firmly above the 20 EMA at $14.75 and continue their current upside trend. Silver has previously received support just above the 20 EMA at $14.85. This level has been tested three times, and each time silver saw increased buying activity.

Thus, the $14.75 – $14.85 area is the first major support level for silver. I’d also expect that it won’t be easy for silver to go through the $14.30 – $14.60 area in case it breaches the first material support level.

On the upside, the next material resistance is at 50 EMA at $15.60. This level is close to the recent top which was reached a few days ago. In case silver is able to get above the 50 EMA level and settle there, it will have a very good chance to get back to pre-crisis levels at $16.50 and complete the current rebound.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 2786.00, Weakens Under 2765.50

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are called higher based on the pre-market trade. The market was trading lower earlier in the session, but rebounded after the Federal Reserve unveiled details of its Main Street lending programs, which are geared toward helping small and medium-sized businesses hindered by the coronavirus outbreak. The programs will total up to $2.3 trillion.

At 13:02 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2766.25, up 31.25 or 1.14%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers traded through 2750.00. The main trend will change to down on a trade through the last main bottom at 2424.75.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2620.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 3397.75 to 2174.00. Its retracement zone at 2786.00 to 2930.25 is the next upside target. This is a major resistance zone. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The intermediate range is 3131.00 to 2174.00. The index is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 2652.50 to 2765.50.

Combining the two retracement zones makes 2765.50 to 2786.00 a key resistance cluster.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2766.25, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 2765.50 to 2786.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2786.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking this level could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at 2699.00. This angle is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next targets 2915.00 and 2930.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2765.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into a downtrending Gann angle at 2699.00.

Crossing to the weak side of the angle at 2699.00 could trigger a break into 2652.50. This is followed by 2620.75 and 2590.00.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 9, 2020

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar shortly after the release of a report on U.S. weekly jobless claims. Jobless rolls continued to swell due to the coronavirus shutdown, with 6.6 million Americans filing first-time unemployment claims in the week-ended April 4, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

At 12:47 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0881, down 0.0003 or -0.02%.

In other news, yields across the core Euro Zone bond markets rose slightly on Thursday, with those in the peripheral markets advancing higher, as investors waited to see whether European finance ministers would be able to reach agreement on an economic rescue package.

The tight trading range suggests the EUR/USD is being underpinned by the hopes that another weak U.S. jobless claims report would lead to additional fiscal stimulus. This would weaken the dollar.

Gains are likely being capped by the chance European finance policymakers decide on an economic rescue package. This would weaken the Euro.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.0768 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.1147 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 1.0636 to 1.1147. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.0892 to 1.0831. Trader reaction to this zone could determine the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The minor range is 1.1147 to 1.0768. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.0958 is a potential upside target.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0881, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0896 and the Fibonacci level at 1.0831. Holding between these levels will produce a neutral trade.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0896 will indicate the presence of buyers. If buying volume increases on the move then look for a surge into 1.0958 and a downtrending Gann angle at 1.0967.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0831 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into an uptrending Gann angle at 1.0766. If shorting weakness, make sure you have volume on your side.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Larger-than-Expected Jobless Claims Could Spike Prices Higher

Gold futures are trading higher on Thursday as investors react to softer interest rates, a weaker U.S. Dollar and an early dip in demand for risky assets like stocks. This is an interesting development because it marks the first time in several weeks that gold is reacting in a more traditional manner. Meaning, demand for paper down, demand for hard assets up.

At 10:45 GMT, June Comex gold is trading $1706.30, up $22.00 or +1.31%.

At the start of the coronavirus crisis, Treasury yields spiked lower, stocks broke sharply and gold rallied. That was a traditional reaction.

When stocks started to crash, margin calls had to be met, and investors sold gold to raise the cash needed to meet the calls. Furthermore, there was a liquidity problem and a U.S. Dollar shortage. So for several weeks, gold and stocks were moving in lock-step, meaning they were both moving in the same direction.

Today’s price action suggests gold and stocks are losing this tight correlation.

Daily Forecast

In addition to reacting to the traditional fundamentals, gold traders are also being influenced by the crucial meeting between top oil producers and the long Easter holiday weekend.

Short-term gold is subject to wild volatility swings due to its ties to numerous financial markets and of course, the ever-changing coronavirus stats.

Long-term, the fundamentals are bullish for gold. The market is flooded with fiscal and monetary stimulus which is helping to inflate gold prices.

Furthermore, now that the Fed has made enough U.S. Dollars available for liquidity purposes, the greenback could weaken substantially, which would be bullish for demand for dollar-denominated gold.

In economic news, traders should brace for volatility today at 12:30 GMT with the release of the weekly U.S. jobless claims report. Traders are pricing in a jump of about 5 million, which would put the three week total at 15 million.

This number will help gold traders determine the extent of the damage to the U.S. labor market and economy due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Another weak number will solidify the chances of an additional stimulus package from Congress. This would be bullish for gold.

After the initial reaction to the jobless report, volume could taper off as investors prepare for the long Easter holiday weekend.

Last Few Great Setups Before Easter!

With so many events ahead, today should be an interesting day. The OPEC meeting leads the day, in addition to Job data from the US and Canada and the upcoming Easter weekend which means many markets will be closing on Friday and Monday. Mid-term traders will likely keep their positions opened throughout the long weekend, which increases their risk in an already risky industry. Sit tight and get ready for today’s analysis.

Let’s start with the commodity which is most at risk of being affected from the OPEC meeting; oil. The price is fairly stable and the recent upswing created the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. This can be a good move for buyers. How can the OPEC meeting affect oil prices? If we hear promising news then the price of oil will have better chances of breaking the 28 USD/oz resistance level which would indicate a buy signal.

Moving on to the DAX, where the relief rally has continued. In yesterday’s session the index averted a head and shoulders pattern, but in today’s the price bounced from Tuesday’s highs. The current formation could be one of two; an ascending triangle promoting the breakout to the upside or a double top formation promoting a reversal. What’s next? A breakout of the horizontal resistance would give us a buy signal while a breakout of the dynamic support would give a sell signal.

Now let’s get back to the EURGBP which we recently mentioned. The last time we spoke about the pair it was going through four trend continuation patterns in a row. The last one, which was a wedge, was eventually prolonged and ended in a pennant – which is a sell signal. After the pennant, we now have another flag, which also promotes a breakout to the downside. This chart is a perfect example of how effective the trend continuation pattern can be.

In today’s session, we’re discussing a fourth instrument and that’s because there’s a small but important update on gold. In yesterday’s analysis we mentioned that gold was on a combination of crucial horizontal and dynamic support levels. In most cases when those two meet we see a bounce. This was no exception, the price of gold used those two supports and is now moving upwards.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Weaker as Traders Adjust Positions to Trimmed Demand

Natural gas futures are trading lower on Thursday as investors continue to react to yesterday’s potentially bearish technical chart pattern. The catalyst behind Wednesday’s dramatic reversal to the downside is the return of warmer weather in the latest forecasts. Later today at 14:30 GMT, the government will release its weekly storage report.

“Spot gas prices also started to pull back, namely on the West Coast and farther upstream in West Texas,” Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) wrote on Wednesday. NGI’s Spot Gas National Average ultimately settled a half-cent higher at $1.580.

At 09:47 GMT, May natural gas futures are trading $1.774, $0.009 or -0.50%.

Before you turn bearish on the market, however, keep in mind that temperatures remain on track to be on the colder side of historical norms in April. Wednesday’s pullback may have just been a reaction to traders adjusting positions to the trimming of some demand over the next couple of weeks.

“But even with a little milder trends in recent runs, the pattern is still solidly bullish/chilly April 10-19 besides a brief break this Sunday,” NatGasWeather said. “It’s now the April 20-23 period that needs to be a little colder.”

U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

This week’s EIA report, due to be released at 14:30 GMT, is expected to show an injection between 9 and 33 Bcf for the week-ending April 3. As you can see, the estimates are wide this week.

NGI reports that a Wall Street Journal poll of 12 analysts showed estimates averaging at a 21 Bcf build. Respondents to a Bloomberg survey arrived at a similar range, with a median build of 24 Bcf. A Reuters survey also was looking for a 24 Bcf injection, with a 9 Bcf to 34 Bcf build range. NGI’s model estimated the injection at a much larger 37 Bcf.

These figures compare with a 25 Bcf increase in storage in the same week last year and the five-year average injection of 6 Bcf, according to the EIA.

Daily Forecast

A bearish report is likely to spike prices into a potential support area at $1.719 to $1.673. Since the main trend is down, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this area. They are going to try to produce a secondary higher bottom when compared to the multi-year low at $1.521.

A bullish report could lead to a retest of this week’s high at $1.918, but this market isn’t likely to move much higher unless buyers can take out $1.959.

Furthermore, don’t forget about the weather. If the weather models continue to strip out the cold then the market will have a hard time getting off the ground today.

Essentially, we’re likely to see a quick reaction to the EIA report, but the most important report is the weather.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – OPEC+ Expected to Announce Historic Production Cut

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are inching higher early Thursday as traders await the announcement of production cuts from the world’s largest oil producers later in the day.

The early price action indicates traders are going into today’s session with high expectations that a deal will be reached with the markets seemingly poised to breakout to the upside.

At 08:21 GMT, May WTI crude oil is trading $26.35, up $1.26 or +5.02%. June Brent crude oil is at $33.99, up $1.15 or +3.50%.

OPEC+ Set to Convene a Video Conference

OPEC and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are set to convene a video conference meeting on Thursday.

The meeting is expected to be more successful than their gathering in March, where they failed to agree to extend supply cuts and triggered a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to CNBC.

Hopes of an agreement to cut between 10 million and 15 million barrels per day (bpd) rose after media reports suggested Russia was ready to reduce its output by 1.6 million bpd and Algeria’s energy minister said he expected a “fruitful” meeting.

Such a sizable reduction would be far bigger than any production cut OPEC has every agreed on before, CNBC said.

Saudi, Russia Still at Odds Over Plans for Oil Cuts Hours Before Talks:  Sources

Reuters is reporting that Saudi Arabia and Russia still need to resolve differences over plans for deep global oil production cuts, a Russian source and an OPEC source said on Thursday, hours before the start of talks between OPEC, Russia and others over efforts to prop up prices.

“I’m not sure how Russia and Saudi Arabia would be able to iron out their differences today, it all could be stretched out,” the Russian source told Reuters.

Two Russian sources said the maximum Russian oil production cut under any global pact on supplies would be 2 million barrels per day (bpd).

Daily Forecast

We’re expecting a deal like most traders. This should be short-term bullish with the size of the initial rally likely to be determined by whether the agreed upon production cut is 10 or 15 million barrels per day.

However, we also expect gains to be capped because the fundamentals are bearish. There is too much supply and demand has been crushed by the spread of the coronavirus.

Some analysts are skeptical about how effective an OPEC+ cut would be in shoring up prices.

“Ultimately, the size of the demand shock is simply too large for a coordinated supply cut,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Bearish Traders Defending 109.318 Creating Key Resistance

The Dollar/Yen is trading nearly flat for a third straight session with investors showing little reaction to the sharp rise in demand for risky assets, which tends to drive the U.S. Dollar higher, and the announcement of new fiscal stimulus from the Japanese government, which tends to drive the Japanese Yen lower. The price action indicates these two events may be off-setting, leading to a mostly sideways trade.

At 07:46 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 108.921, up 0.065 or +0.06%.

Daily USD/JPY

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 111.715 will change the main trend to up. A move through the last main bottom at 106.921 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 111.715 to 106.921. Its retracement zone at 109.318 to 109.884 is acting like resistance.

The main range is 112.226 to 101.185. Its retracement zone is 108.008 to 106.706.

The intermediate range is 101.185 to 111.715. Its retracement zone is 106.450 to 105.207.

Combining the main and intermediate ranges creates a major support cluster at 106.706 to 106.450.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the price action this week and the current price at 108.921, the direction of the USD/JPY the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 109.318.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 109.318 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 108.421. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into the main Fibonacci level at 108.008.

The Fib level is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside. This could drive the USD/JPY into a support cluster at 106.921.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking 109.318 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into a resistance cluster at 109.318, 109.884 and 110.039. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle coming in at 111.132. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 111.715, 112.226 and 112.405 main tops.

EUR/USD Stuck in a Range with Possible Move Down if Below 1.0850

Dear Traders,

The EUR/USD is bearish on 3 consecutive timeframes on my CAMMACD.SIT template. The price is below the channel on H4, H1 and M15.

We can see that the price is moving sideways. However, we can see that the EUR/USD is also trying to break below 1-2-3 pattern on M15 timeframe. A consecutive break below 1.0850 should target 1.0820 and 1.0795. If this happens, we might be on the way towards 1.0700 level retest. If the EUR/USD fails to close below 1.0850 on then, we should see a further range play.

The Analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.Core and Sit Systems

 

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Are In Spotlight Again

GBP/USD Video 09.04.20.

Waiting For The Key Economic Release Of The Week

GBP/USD remains above the 20 EMA level as the market is encouraged by early signs that the coronavirus pandemic is under control and turns its attention to riskier assets.

However, the U.S. dollar is still holding its ground against the broad basket of currencies, and the U.S. Dollar Index is above the psychologically important 100 level.

The condition of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who fights against coronavirus in a hospital, has improved. Boris Johnson is still in intensive care but is able to sit on the bed and talk to medical staff.

Previously, the condition of the Prime Minister did not have material impact on the strength of the British pound. Now that his condition has improved, traders should not expect any influence on GBP/USD.

Several economic releases have already been published in the UK. Construction Output , Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production showed declines year-over-year.

Construction Output declined by 2.7%, Industrial Production declined by 2.8%, while Manufacturing Production took a hit of 3.9%. Investors and traders should note that this is data for February. When the data for March is released, it will look much worse.

The key economic release of the day is the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. The previous release showed that 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits.

This week’s release is also expected to show a massive increase in unemployment. The current consensus is that 5.25 million applications were filed, but estimates wary widely.

Previously, markets were able to shrug off negative employment data and focus on first signs of improvements on the coronavirus front. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to withstand the hit from employment data this time.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd april 9 2020

GBP/USD is trading in the range between the 20 EMA at 1.2300 and 50 EMA at 1.2480. The 20 EMA serves as the first material support level for the pair.

If this level is breached to the downside, GBP/USD will likely re-test the recent lows at 1.2170.

The 50 EMA serves as a major resistance level and is located at the local highs which have been tested several times.

If this major level is breached to the upside, GBP/USD will have a good chance to get to pre-crisis levels at 1.2750 and complete the current rebound.