The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 19th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 6.29% on Sunday. Following on from a 2.27% decline on Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week down by 6.43% to $56,172.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $60,279.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $61,197, Bitcoin tumbled to an early morning intraday low $50,500.0.

The extended sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the major support levels

Finding support at the 23.6% FIB of $50,473, Bitcoin broke back through the third major resistance level at $55,104 to end the day at $56,100 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact in spite of the slide back to $50,500 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Sunday.

Crypto.com Coin tumbled by 15.14% to lead the way down, with Bitcoin Cash SV sliding by 12.39%.

Litecoin (-8.92%) and Ripple’s XRP (-8.28%) also saw heavy losses.

Binance Coin (-6.24%), Cardano’s ADA (-6.50%), Chainlink (-2.17%), Ethereum (-3.35%), and Polkadot (-5.14%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

It was also a mixed week for the majors in the week ending 18th April.

Binance Coin slid by 8.23%, with Crypto.com Coin falling by 5.08% to join Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish week for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV jumped by 25.25% to lead the way, with Polkadot rallying by 15.72%.

Cardano’s ADA (+1.32%), Ethereum (+4.23%), Litecoin (+8.68%), and Ripple’s XRP (+4.67%) also ended the week in positive territory.

In the week, the crypto total market rose to a Friday high $2,305bn before sliding to a Sunday low $1,755bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,019bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Saturday low 51.37%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.52%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.81% to $56,625.1. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $55,709.0 before rising to a high $56,666.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Polkadot (-0.77%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.55%) saw red to buck the trend early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was up by 3.69% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $55,650 to bring the first major resistance level at $60,801 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $60,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $60,279.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $65,429.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $55,650 pivot would bring the first major support level at $51,022 and the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$50,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $45,871.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.35% on Sunday. Following on from a 4.45% decline on Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 4.23% to $2,241.45.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $2,341.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,439, Ethereum slid to an early morning intraday low $2,000.00.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,258 and the second major support level at $2,197.

Finding support at the third major support level at $2,016, Ethereum bounced back to end the day at $2,200 levels.

The partial recovery saw Ethereum break back through the second major support level at $2,197.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.60% to $2,228.01. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,254.00 before falling to a low $2,205.01.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $2,194 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,388.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $2,341.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,535.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $2,194 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,047 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the second major support level at $1,853. The 23.6% FIB of $1,966 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,047

Pivot Level: $2,194

First Major Resistance Level: $2,388

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 8.92% on Sunday.  Following on from a 2.51% fall from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week up by 8.68% to $274.20.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $305.33 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $325, Litecoin slid to an early morning intraday low $241.09.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $287 and the second major support level at $273.

More significantly, Litecoin also tumbled through the 23.6% FIB of $262.

Finding late morning support, Litecoin moved back through the 23.6% FIB and the second major support level to end the day at $274 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.12% to $271.13. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $275.62 before falling to a low $267.69.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move back the $274 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $306.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $305.33 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a bounce back, Litecoin could test resistance at $320 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $338.

Failure to move back through the $274 pivot level would bring the 23.6% FIB of $262 and the first major support level at $242 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the the second major support level at $209. The 38.2% FIB of $217 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $242

Pivot Level: $274

First Major Resistance Level: $306

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 8.28% on Sunday. Following a 0.62% decline from Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week up by 4.67% to $1.41371.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.56714 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.6802, Ripple’s XRP slid to an early morning intraday low $1.15000.

Ripple’s XRP slid through the day’s major support levels before finding support.

More significantly, Ripple’s XRP also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of sub-$1.00 levels, Ripple’s XRP bounced back to end the day at $1.41 levels.

The partial recovery had seen Ripple’s XRP break back through the third major support level at $1.1848 and the second major support level at $1.3960.

Ripple’s XRP also broke back through the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 2.29% to $1.38138. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $1.43776 before falling to a low $1.36000.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.6039 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $1.80 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.7941.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807 and the first major support level at $1.1868 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.9598.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.1868

Pivot Level: $1.3770

First Major resistance Level: $1.6039

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Technical Reversal Could Be Signaling Weakening Selling Pressure

The Dollar/Yen finished higher on Friday after the Forex pair touched its lowest level since March 24 early in the session. The move produced a technical closing price reversal bottom that could be the first sign that the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels.

On Friday, the USD/JPY settled at 108.793, up 0.030 or +0.03%.

The price action was driven by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields that helped the U.S. Dollar stabilize after a second consecutive week of losses.

U.S. Treasury yields bounced back on Friday after the 10-year rate slipped to 1.53% in the previous session. Near the end of the session, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.587%. Earlier in the month, the 10-year Treasury yield recently topped 1.70%.

US Economic News

U.S. housing starts surged 19.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.739 million units last month, the highest level since June 2006. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would rise to a rate of 1.613 million units in March.

Permits for future home building rose 2.7% to a rate of 1.766 million units last month, recouping only a fraction of February’s 8.8% plunge. They jumped 30.2% compared to March 2020.

Inflation concerns were on consumers’ minds early this month. A separate report from the University of Michigan on Friday showed its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 from a final reading of 84.9 in March. Economists had forecast the index would rise to 89.6.

Finally, the survey’s one-year inflation expectation jumped to 3.7%, the highest level in nearly a decade, from 3.1% in March. Its five-year inflation outlook was unchanged at 2.7%.

Japan Economic News

In Japan, Preliminary Machine Tool Orders came in at 65.0%, up from 36.7%. Core Machinery Orders, however, fell 8.5%, missing the 2.4% forecast and coming in below the previously reported -4.5%.

Japan’s core machinery orders unexpectedly fell 8.5% in February from the previous month, posting a second straight month of declines, government data showed last week.

The fall in core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, compared with a forecast of 2.8% growth in a Reuters poll of economists, the Cabinet Office data showed.

On a year-on-year basis, core orders, which exclude those for ships and electric utilities, declined 7.1% in February, versus a 2.3% gain expected by economists.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Stable Greenback Caps Aussie, Kiwi

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars broke out of a tight range to hit three-week highs last week as their U.S. counterpart extended its broad retreat and upbeat data suggested the Australian economy had grown strongly last quarter. The Kiwi just went along for the ride as a dovish central bank and business survey pointed toward a weak economy. On Friday, both currencies suffered small losses as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend.

On Friday, the AUD/USD settled at .7734, down 0.0017 or -0.22% and the NZD/USD finished at .7146, down 0.0025 or -0.35%.

US Economic News

The Aussie and Kiwi were pressured on Friday as U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after the 10-year rate slipped to 1.53% in the previous session. The move helped stabilize the U.S. Dollar, which had been down most of the week.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.587%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 2.275%. The 10-year Treasury yield recently dropped 1.7%, while the 30-year government bond rate traded above 2.5%, amid concerns about rising inflation.

Housing starts jumped 19.4% month-over-month in March, according the Commerce Department, while building permits rose 2.7%. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose in April to 86.5 from 84.9 a month prior.

On Thursday, data from the Commerce Department showed U.S. retail sales jumped 9.8% in March. This was well above the Dow Jones estimate of 6.1% growth. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that there were 576,000 new jobless claims filed for the week ended April 10. This was the lowest number of new weekly unemployment insurance claims since March 2020 and well below the 710,000 forecast by economists.

New Zealand Economic News

The Business NZ Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 63.6, up 9.4 points from February, and the highest monthly result since the survey began in 2002.

BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said, “The two major sub-index values of Production (66.8) and New Orders (72.5) were the main drivers of the March result, with the latter experiencing its first post 70-point value. This does not indicate a swift shift in demand over a relatively short time, which may indicate a move towards previously shelved projects and business ventures that have now been given the green light.”

“Given the strong March result, the proportion of those outlining positive comments increased significantly from 46% in February to almost 58% in March. Unsurprisingly, comments were centered towards increased demand both domestically and offshore”.

BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said, “More demand is one thing, but meeting it is another. Firms have faced many supply-side challenges. In this regard, it is interesting to see PMI deliveries of raw materials lifted strongly, to 62.8 this month. That coincides with other data showing imports leapt more than 17% above year earlier levels in March following prior weakness”.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – New Support Moves Up to 13786.00

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures finished slightly higher on Friday. The index hit a new record high during the session, but it was a struggle with tech behemoths Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc and Microsoft Corp, slipping between 0.2% and 1.5%. In the cash market, the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite finished less than one percent below its own all-time closing high achieved on February 12.

On Friday, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 14029.50, up 15.50 or +0.11%.

The Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low despite inflation has also revived demand for richly valued technology stocks, although bond yields edged higher again on Friday after hitting multi-week lows a day earlier.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out Thursday’s high at 14034.25.

A trade through 12609.75 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index closed on Friday inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 13512.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 13512.50 to 14059.50. Its 50% level at 13786.00 is the nearest support.

The main range is 12609.75 to 14059.50. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 13334.50 to 13165.50.

Short-Term Outlook

The uptrend is very strong and it’s going to take some time to change the main trend to down. However, a higher-high, lower-close will be the first sign of selling pressure. The formation of a closing price reversal top chart pattern will give investors an early warning to start trimming long positions.

Some aggressive traders will choose to use this chart pattern as a shorting opportunity. This will be much better than trying to pick a top. However, keep in mind that a closing price reversal top does not change the trend. It only indicates the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

The daily chart currently indicates that a combination of a closing price reversal top and a sustained move under 13786.00 could trigger the start of a steep break with 13334.50 the minimum objective.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Strong LNG Volumes, Cooler Temps

Natural gas futures moved higher on Friday, cementing a strong weekly gain. The market hits its highest level since March 12 on the back of increased weather-driven demand and strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes. Perhaps putting a lid on the rally was a 2.0 cent drop in Natural Gas Intelligence’s (NGI) Spot Gas National Average.

On Friday, June natural gas settled at $2.754, up $0.024 or +0.88%.

Daily June Natural Gas

LNG Feed Gas Volumes Remain Supportive

NGI reported that LNG feed gas volumes hovered close to 2021 highs and above 11 Bcf on Friday, as export destinations in Asia and Europe continued to buy up U.S. supplies of the super-chilled fuel. Pipeline exports to Mexico also held strong, hanging near 7 Bcf.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

“Overnight, the European model continued to shift significantly cooler, adding 21.3 HDDs over the past 24 hours and extending cooler-than-normal weather through the end of April,” EBW Analytics Group said Friday.

The American model was essentially flat over the same period, EBW noted. It called for cooler temperatures over the coming week but a return to mild spring weather before the end of the month.

US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The EIA reported on Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 61 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended April 9. That compares with an average increase of 65 Bcf forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts.

Total stocks now stand at 1.845 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), down 242 Bcf from a year ago but 11 Bcf above the five-year average, the government said.

Daily Forecast

Technically, the main trend changed to up. If the upside momentum continues then look for the move to possibly extend into a key 50% to 61.8% retracement zone.

The February 17 top is $3.082. The March 18 bottom is $2.521. Its retracement zone at $2.802 to $2.868 is the next likely upside target. Sellers could come in on a test of this area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Vulnerable to Reversal Top

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rallied on Friday, setting another record in the process amid strong earnings from blue-chip companies especially the bank stocks, which continued to rise on bumper quarterly earnings reports.

Morgan Stanley reported a 150% jump in quarterly profit on Friday, helping to boost the performance of Dow components JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group as investors continued to bet on a swift economic recovery.

On Friday, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 34081, up 158 or +0.46%.

In other news, the University of Michigan said Friday its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to a one-year high of 86.5 in the first half of this month form 84.9 in March. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday the U.S. economy is set to take off, but there’s still no reason to start tightening policy.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out the previous high at 33862. A trade through 34144 on Monday will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A trade through 31951 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the Dow is ripe for a closing price reversal top.

We’re not going to guess when the pattern will form. We’re not going to sell a new high and hope for a lower close. We’re likely to let it form first then wait for the confirmation. The uptrend is strong so it doesn’t make sense to try to guess until we start to see evidence of sellers.

We do suspect, however, that the top won’t be formed by economic data, but rather a surprise event. Something has to happen that will create enough uncertainty to encourage the longs to start trimming positions.

Short-Term Outlook

A higher-high, lower-close will be the best sign that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. The next best sign will be a lower-low, which will make 34144 a new minor top.

A third sign of a top will be the failure to hold the minor 50% level at 33651.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Lower Close Suggests Weak Start on Monday

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures edged lower on Friday but still managed to finish higher for the week. Nonetheless, the markets did post potentially bearish chart patterns on their daily charts, which could put early pressure on them early Monday.

On Friday, June WTI crude oil settled at $63.19, down $0.32 or -0.50% and June Brent crude oil ended the session at $66.77, down $0.17 or -0.25%.

Traders said that prices were likely underpinned by the news that China’s first-quarter gross domestic product jumped 18.3% year-on-year. That news followed a big increase in U.S. retail sales and a drop in unemployment claims released on Thursday.

The big up move for the week, however, was fueled by positive oil demand growth outlooks by both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a bigger-than-expected draw in this week’s government inventories report.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC upwardly revised their global oil demand growth forecasts for 2021 this week to 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and 5.95 million bpd respectively.

“Fundamentals look decidedly stronger,” the IEA said in its monthly report.

“The massive overhang in global oil inventories that built up during last year’s COVID-19 demand shock is being worked off, vaccine campaigns are gathering pace and the global economy appears to be on a better footing.”

“As the spread and intensity of the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to subside with the ongoing rollout of vaccination programs, social distancing requirements and travel limitations are likely to be scaled back, offering increased mobility,” OPEC said in the report.

“The global economic recovery continues, significantly supported by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus,” OPEC said. “The recovery is very much leaning towards the second half of 2021.”

U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped more than expected as refiners increased activity heading into the summer driving season, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels in the week to April 9 to 492.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9 million-barrel drop.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose 309,000 barrels in the week to 234.9 million barrels, less than analysts’ expectations for a 786,000-barrel rise.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.1 million barrels versus forecasts for a 971,000-barrel rise, the EIA data showed.

Refinery utilization rates rose by 1 percentage point to 85% of overall capacity. That is the highest since March of last year, just before the coronavirus pandemic caused refiners to severely restrict processing activities as demand dove.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Wall Street Closes Higher Friday as S&P 500, Dow Hit Record Highs

The major U.S. stock indexes finished higher on Friday, setting new records in the process on the back of strong earnings from blue-chip companies as well as robust economic data that signaled a solid recovery from the pandemic was in the works.

In the cash market, the benchmark S&P 500 Index settled at 4185.47, up 15.05 or +0.36%. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 34200.67, up 164.68 or +0.48% and the technology-based NASDAQ Composite closed at 14052.34, up 13.58 or +0.10%.

The S&P 500 Index scored three closing highs this week, while the Dow surpassed its best finish two days running. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite finished less than one percent below its own all-time closing high achieved on February 12.

Investor Sentiment Boosted by Slew of Economic Data

Housing starts surged 19.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.739 million units last month, the highest level since June 2006. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would rise to a rate of 1.613 million units in March.

Permits for future home building rose 2.7% to a rate of 1.766 million units last month, recouping only a fraction of February’s 8.8% plunge. They jumped 30.2% compared to March 2020.

Inflation concerns were on consumers’ minds early this month. A separate report from the University of Michigan on Friday showed its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 from a final reading of 84.9 in March. Economists had forecast the index would rise to 89.6.

Finally, the survey’s one-year inflation expectation jumped to 3.7%, the highest level in nearly a decade, from 3.1% in March. Its five-year inflation outlook was unchanged at 2.7%.

Strong Bank Earnings Reflect Snapback in Economy

The last of the six largest U.S. banks to report – Morgan Stanley – posted stronger-than-expected earnings, bolstered by strong trading and investment results. The bank reported a 150% jump in quarterly profit on Friday, joining the other U.S. banks in posting first-quarter numbers that reinforced hopes of a swift economic recovery. Still, the investment bank’s shares fell 2.8% as it also disclosed an almost $1 billion loss from the collapse of private fund Archegos.

PNC Financial gained more than 2% after the bank beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its first-quarter report.

Meanwhile, shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs Group, Bank of America Corp and Wells Fargo & Co rose between 0.7% and 3.8%. This helped the S&P Financials Index climb to a second consecutive record finish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – New Minor Support Moves Up to 4142.25

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed higher on Friday with the benchmark index breaking another record close. The strength was driven by strong economic data and bank earnings which served as signs of momentum in the U.S. pandemic recovery.

On Friday, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 4176.25, up 13.75 or +0.33%.

Nine of the 11 S&P sub-sectors rose on Friday. The energy and information technology indexes were the exceptions. The, dipping 0.9%, was weighed by lower oil prices, while the latter was marginally lower, the day after its highest-ever close.

In other news, Morgan Stanley reported a 150% jump in quarterly profit on Friday, joining other big banks in posting first-quarter numbers reinforcing hopes of a swift economic recovery.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out the previous high at 4166.50.

A trade through 3843.25 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but since the index is up 15 days from its last main bottom, it closed Friday’s session inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4101.5 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4101.25 to 4183.50. Its 50% level at 4142.25 is potential support.

The main range is 3843.25 to 4183.50. If the minor trend changes to down then this will open up the possibility of a further decline into its retracement zone at 4013.25 to 3973.25.

Short-Term Outlook

There is no resistance so it’s important to watch for a few patterns that could signal a short-term top.

Taking out Friday’s low at 4154.25 will make 4183.50 a new minor top. This will be a sign that the selling may be greater than the selling at current price levels.

Taking out 4183.50 then closing lower for the session will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed then this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

It doesn’t make sense to try to pick a top. When you try to short, you’re only feeding the bull.

If this market is going to form a short-term top, it’s not likely to be related to an economic event, but rather surprise news.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 18th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.27% on Saturday. Following on from a 2.98% decline on Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $59,927.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $62,450.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $63,226, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $59,662.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $59,711 before briefly revisiting $60,900 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Bitcoin fall back to end the day at sub-$60,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Polkadot rallied by 3.87% to lead the way, with Binance Coin rising by 1.08%.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV slid by 10.95% to lead the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-3.18%), Chainlink (-4.89%), Ethereum (-4.45%), and Litecoin (-2.51%) also struggled.

Crypto.com Coin (-0.08%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.62%) saw modest losses on the day, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Friday high $2,305bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,136bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Saturday low 51.38%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.85%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.46% to $60,205.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $59,934.0 before rising to a high $60,279.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bullish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 1.42% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 180421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the pivot level at $60,680 to bring the first major resistance level at $61,697 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $61,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Saturday’s high $62,450.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $63,468.

Failure to move through the $60,680 pivot would bring the first major support level at $58,909 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$58,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $57,892.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Fed’s Plan to Keep Interest Rates Historically Low

Gold futures hit their highest level in seven weeks on Friday, while posting their best weekly performance since mid-December. The catalysts behind the move were a sharp retreat by U.S. Treasury yields on Thursday and a generally softer U.S. Dollar which drove up demand for dollar-denominated gold.

Gold’s advance came despite robust U.S. retail sales data and a significant drop in weekly jobless claims on Thursday. The price action suggests investors have bought into the Federal Reserve’s call for a surge in economic growth, while holding interest rates at historically low levels until the economy is on solid ground.

On Friday, June Comex gold futures settled at $1780.20, up $13.40 or +0.76%.

In other news, the U.S. released reports on Building Permits, Housing Starts, Preliminary University Consumer Sentiment and Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations

US Housing Starts Near 15-year High; Consumer Sentiment Rises Moderately

U.S. homebuilding surged to nearly a 15-year high in March, but soaring lumber prices amid supply constraints could limit builders’ capacity to boost production and ease a shortage of homes that is threatening to slow housing market momentum, Reuters reported.

The sharp rebound reported by the Commerce Department on Friday added to robust retail sales in March in suggesting that the economy was roaring after a brief weather-related setback in February. Increasing COVID-19 vaccinations, warmer weather and massive fiscal stimulus are driving the economy, with growth this year expected to be the strongest in nearly four decades.

But caution is starting to creep in among consumers as the course of the pandemic remains uncertain and inflation is showing signs of heating up. Other data on Friday showed consumer sentiment rose moderately in early April.

Housing starts surged 19.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.739 million units last month, the highest level since June 2006. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would rise to a rate of 1.613 million units in March.

Permits for future home building rose 2.7% to a rate of 1.766 million units last month, recouping only a fraction of February’s 8.8% plunge. They jumped 30.2% compared to March 2020.

Inflation concerns were on consumers’ minds early this month. A separate report from the University of Michigan on Friday showed its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 from a final reading of 84.9 in March. Economists had forecast the index would rise to 89.6.

Finally, the survey’s one-year inflation expectation jumped to 3.7%, the highest level in nearly a decade, from 3.1% in March. Its five-year inflation outlook was unchanged at 2.7%.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 17th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.98% on Friday. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $61,322.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $63,520.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $64,027, Bitcoin slid to a late morning intraday low $60,005.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $62,182 and the second major support level at $61,169.

Finding afternoon support, Bitcoin broke back through the second major support level to revisit $62,000 levels before easing back.

In spite of the pullback, Bitcoin avoided a fall back through the second major support level late in the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Bitcoin Cash SV surged by 17.73% to lead the way, with Litecoin rallying by 7.89%.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% to lead the way down

Binance Coin (-6.15%), Cardano’s ADA (-4.51%), and Ethereum (-3.59%) also struggled.

Chainlink (-1.40%), Crypto.com Coin (-0.97%), and Polkadot (-1.84%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Friday high $2,307bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,177bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Friday low 51.50%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.59%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.25% to $61,167.3. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $61,675.0 before falling to a low $61,157.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-2.47%) and Crypto.com Coin (-0.64%) joined Bitcoin in the red to buck the early trend.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.09% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through the pivot level at $61,616 to bring the first major resistance level at $63,226 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $63,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $63,520.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $65,131.

Failure to move back through the $61,616 pivot would bring the first major support level at $59,711 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $58,101.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 17th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.59% on Friday. Reversing a 3.49% gain from Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,426.64.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $2,548.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,576, Ethereum slid to an early afternoon intraday low $2,307.21.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,430 and the second major support level at $2,343.

Steering clear of sub-$2,300 levels, Ethereum broke back through the major support levels before a late pullback.

The pullback saw Ethereum fall back through the first major support level to end the day at $2,426 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.40% to $2,460.53. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $2,426.63 to a high $2,460.53.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2,427 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,547.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s new swing hi $2,548.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,700 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,668.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $2,427 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,307 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,187.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,307

Pivot Level: $2,427

First Major Resistance Level: $2,547

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 7.89% on Friday. Following on from a 2.67% gain from Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $308.75.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $297.00 before hitting reverse.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $296 before sliding to an early afternoon intraday low $266.34.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $271 before rallying to a late intraday high and a new swing hi $319.94.

Litecoin broke back through the first major resistance level and broke through the second major resistance level at $306.

A late pullback, however, saw Litecoin briefly fall back through the second major resistance level before wrapping up the day at $308 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.98% to $317.94. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rally from an early morning low $308.76 to a high $318.67.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $330.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s swing hi $319.94.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test resistance at $350 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $352.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $277 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $250. The second major support level sits at $245.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $277

Pivot Level: $298

First Major Resistance Level: $330

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% on Friday. Following on from a 4.17% decline on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.54981.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.80892 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.8777, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $1.42051.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $1.6468 and the second major support level at $1.5343.

Steering clear of sub-$1.40 levels, Ripple’s XRP revisited $1.75 levels before falling back into the deep red.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall back through the first major support level to end the day at sub-$1.60 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.86% to $1.56312. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $1.5390 before rising to a high $1.56443.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $1.5931 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.7657 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from $1.75 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $1.80 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $2.00 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.9815.

Failure to move through the $1.5941 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the first major support level at $1.3772 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.30 levels. The second major support level sits at $1.2047.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.3772

Pivot Level: $1.5931

First Major resistance Level: $1.7657

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Gold And Silver Continue To Gain Value As Multiple Events Support Safe-Haven Assets

Rising geopolitical tensions, recent drops in the yield of 10-year Treasury notes, dollar weakness, a highly accommodative Federal Reserve and concern about the rising national debt all collectively moved gold and silver to multiweek highs.

The last time gold traded to $1784 occurred on February 25. On that date, gold opened above $1800 and closed at $1775. The last time gold closed above today’s highs occurred on February 22. This week gold opened at $1745 and gained approximately $30 based on today’s close.

june gold april 16

As of 4:30 PM EST, gold futures basis the most active June 2021 Comex contract is currently trading up $9.80 (+0.55%) and is fixed at $1776.60. Silver basis, the most active May 2021 Comex contract, is currently trading up $0.061 (+0.23%) and fixed at $26.025. This follows yesterday’s strong gains in both precious metals. Seeing as on Thursday, gold futures gained $28.10, and silver futures gained $0.40.

silver April 16

Dollar weakness provided mild tailwinds as the dollar index is currently fixed at 91.54. The dollar traded at 92.21 on Monday and lost 67 points on the week. The result is that the dollar index was devalued by -0.067% this week.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note traded lower this week and is now yielding approximately 1.56%. This week’s decline also provided solid tailwinds aiding the safe-haven asset class.

On Wednesday, April 14, Chairman Jerome Powell spoke virtually at the Economic Club of Washington DC. He addressed the concern that many economists have about the ever-growing national debt that has been created from fiscal stimulus as well as the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

In response to these concerns, Chairman Powell said that “The U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path, meaning simply that the debt is growing meaningfully faster than the economy. The current level of debt is very sustainable. And there’s no question of our ability to service and issue that debt for the foreseeable future.”

In addition to that there is rising tension between the United States and Russia. Yesterday President Joe Biden signed an executive order imposing new sanctions on Russia based on information suggesting that they had interfered with our election as well as an increased amount of Internet hacking and other “malign activities,” which include sending additional troops to Ukraine as well as the continuation of persecution of Russian dissidents in specifics to Alexei Navalny.

In response to these issues, the White House issued an “Executive Order on Blocking Property with Respect to Specified Harmful Foreign Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation.” The full Executive Order can be read by following this link.

There is also increased tension with China. Today President Joe Biden met with the Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga. According to CNBC, “The two leaders will gather in Washington in what will be the U.S. president’s first in-person summit with a foreign leader since his January inauguration. The meeting comes as the U.S. seeks to challenge China on issues ranging from human rights to unfair trade practices.”

These events collectively have been the driving force moving both gold and silver to gain value this week. All things being equal, they could continue to drive gold back above $1800 per ounce and silver above $28 per ounce.

For more information on our service, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

 

NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Rally Stopped Short of .7204 to .7266 Resistance Zone

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower late in the session on Friday as trader squared positions ahead of the weekend after driving the Forex pair into its highest level since March 22. The Kiwi was pressured during the session by a slight rebound in U.S. Treasury yields.

At 20:49 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .7143, down 0.0027 or -0.38%.

Daily NZD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7180 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .6997 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A new minor top was formed at .7180.

The main range is .7465 to .6943. Its retracement zone at .7204 to .7266 is potential resistance. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the NZD/USD.

The short-term range is .7270 to .6943. The Forex pair is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at .7145 to .7106. This is helping to generate a slight upside bias. It’s also potential support.

The major support is the retracement zone at .7027 to .6924. This zone stopped the selling at .6945 and .6943 on April 1 and March 25, respectively.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the NZD/USD into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at .7145.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7145 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is the minor top at .7180. Taking out this level could extend the rally into the main retracement zone at .7204 to .7266. Look for sellers on the first test of this zone. Overcoming .7266 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7145 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late session drop into the short-term 50% level at .7106. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Close Over 108.763 Forms Closing Price Reversal Bottom

The Dollar/Yen is trading slightly higher shortly before the close on Friday. The price action reflects the choppy trade in the U.S. Treasury bond market throughout the session.

U.S. Treasury yields rebounded on Friday after the 10-year rate slipped to 1.53% in the previous session. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.587% in afternoon trading. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 2.275%.

At 20:26 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 108.800, up 0.036 or +0.03%.

In U.S. economic news, housing starts jumped 19.4% month-over-month in March, according to the Commerce Department, while building permits rose 2.7%. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s consumer index rose in April to 86.5 from 84.9 a month prior.

Daily USD/JPY

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 108.407 will change the main trend to down. A move through 110.966 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. A trade through 109.961 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The major support is the retracement zone at 108.230 to 107.154. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the USD/JPY.

The short-term range is 108.407 to 110.966. The Forex pair is trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 109.385 to 109.687. This zone is the nearest resistance.

Short-Term Outlook

The USD/JPY is currently trading inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. The direction of the Forex pair into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 108.763.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 108.763 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough late session momentum then look for a spike into at least 109.385.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 108.763 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 108.407, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 108.230.

Side Notes

A close under 108.763 will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed on Monday then look for the start of a 2 to 3 day rally into at least 109.385 – 109.687. The move will also shift momentum to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Rally Stalls in Front of Main Retracement Zone at .7770 – .7826

The Australian Dollar is trading lower late in the session on Friday as investors took profits ahead of the weekend after hitting its highest level since March 19 the previous session. The currency is also in a position to post a higher close for the week. The catalysts behind the Aussie’s strength were lower Treasury yields, a weaker U.S. Dollar, strong domestic labor market data and solid economic data from China.

At 20:00 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7732, down 0.0019 or -0.25%.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7761 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .7586.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to .7826 is potential resistance. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The short-term range is .7849 to .7532. The Forex pair is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at .7728 to .7690. This is giving the Aussie a slight upside bias. It’s also potential support.

The minor range is .7532 to .7761. Its 50% level at .7646 is potential support.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the AUD/USD into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at .7728.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7728 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible late session surge into .7761 to .7770. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to hold .7728 late in the session could trigger a break into the short-term 50% level at .7690. This is followed by the minor 50% level at .7646. Since the main trend is up, look for buyers on a pullback into this level. It represents value.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to $1788.50 Determines Near-Term Tone

Gold futures hit their highest level since February 25 on Friday, putting them in a position to post their best weekly performance since mid-December as a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields pressured the U.S. Dollar, lifting demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

At 18:09 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1779.10, down $12.30 or +0.70%.

Gold traders have put their faith in the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates at historically low levels until the economy makes a full recovery. Even if inflation does jump above 2% and holds there for several weeks or months, the Fed promises it has the tools to keep it from getting out of control.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A late session trade through the intraday high at $1784.70 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest swing bottom at $1723.20.

Gold is currently trading within striking distance of a long-term 50% level at $1788.50. This level is potential resistance, but also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The first support is a 50% level at $1767.60, followed by additional 50% support levels at $1746.90 and $1731.00.

The major support is the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

Short-Term Outlook

The next major move in gold will be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at $1788.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1788.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at $1817.60 over the near-term. This is the last potential resistance level before the February 10 main top at $1858.90.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1788.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a stair-step correction with potential support levels coming in at $1767.60, $1746.90 and $1731.00. Since the main trend is up, the best value level is $1731.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Predication – Prices Rise as Yield Drop for the Week

Gold prices continued to rally as the dollar moved lower and U.S. yields continued to decline. The U.S. 10-year yield dropped nearly 10-basis points this week. Consumer sentiment rose by less than expected while homebuilders surged to a 15-year high. The University of Michigan showed its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 from a final reading of 84.9 in March. Expectations are that the index would rise to 89.6.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices continued to rally, pushing above resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,753, which is now seen as support. Target resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the February highs at 1,855. Short-term momentum reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 84, above the overbought trigger level of 86. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average, which means that a short-term average is nearly in place.

U.S. Housing Starts Surged

U.S. Housing Starts surged to a 15-year high in March. Housing starts surged 19.4% to an annual rate of 1.739 million units last month, the highest level since June 2006. Expectations had been for Housing Start to rise to a rate of 1.613 million units in March.