AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Pulls Back

The Australian dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we have breached the 0.71 level to the downside heading into the New York session. That being said, there is significant support just below and I think that will continue to be the case. With that in mind I am looking to take advantage of any type of supportive action here as we have decidedly changed the overall attitude of the Aussie dollar over the last several months.

AUD/USD Video 04.08.20

Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns about the coronavirus out their still, but it seems like the FX markets are more or less worried about the Federal Reserve and its loose monetary policy above all else. That has benefited the Aussie dollar over the last couple of weeks, and should continue to do so, despite the fact that Melbourne Australia is currently under a bit of a lockdown due to the virus outbreak.

Federal Reserve liquidity is a main driver of markets around the world, and FX markets are not going to be any different. Quite frankly you need to buy other things to protect your wealth that based in US dollars, so the Australian dollar is probably as good as any other asset that you can think of. This could also be a bit of a play on the Chinese economy getting a bit better, but at this point I think that is just the sideshow and not the main attraction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Ripe for Correction During Dollar Short Squeeze

Gold futures are taking a breather on Monday from its tremendous rally to record highs in July. The catalyst behind the weakness is a stronger U.S Dollar that is weighing on foreign demand for the dollar-denominated precious metal. A sharp rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is also weighing on gold prices after the benchmark hit a record low yield late last week.

At 13:03 GMT, December Comex gold futures are trading $1984.70, down $1.20 or -0.06%.

Dollar Jumps after Weakest Month in a Decade

The dollar is trading higher against a basket of major currencies on Monday as a squeezing-out of crowded short positions combined with safe-haven demand gave the U.S. currency some respite after its weakest monthly performance in ten years. The greenback lost more than 4% in July, its biggest monthly drop since September 2010.

Dollar Short-Squeeze

Speculators’ net shorts on the U.S. Dollar have soared to their highest since August 2011 at $24.27 billion, Reuters calculations and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday.

A partial squeezing out of that crowded short position may be the reason for the dollar’s rally and gold’s subsequent reversal to the downside earlier today.

Essentially, the dollar ran out of sellers. Traders could sense it because the downside movement was a bit cautious late last week. It seemed that nearly every short in the Forex market decided to cover at the same time on Friday, creating a tremendous reversal to the upside.

Treasury Yields Bounce Slightly from Last Week’s Record-Setting Drop

Probably exerting the most pressure on gold is a rise in U.S. Treasury yields after last week’s decline pushed some of the front-end rates to record lows.

Yields were pressed lower last week on the hopes of fresh fiscal stimulus from Congress, but members went home for the week-end without reaching deal. Policymakers are likely to have a deal in place this week, but it’s probably being priced into the market already.

Daily Forecast

We’re going to be keeping an eye on the U.S. Dollar, but an even closer watch of Treasury yields. Right now the dollar is going through the early phase of a short-covering rally that could lead to at least a 50% retracement of the recent sell-off. If this were to take place then gold could mirror the move with a 50% retracement of its current rally.

Traders shouldn’t fear a normal 50% to 61.8% correction in gold. In fact, they should embrace it because it would likely lead to a break back into a value area where it would become attractive to long-term investors.

The fundamentals are there for higher prices over the longer-term. However, over the short-run, I can build a case for a near-term correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for August 3, 2020

The Euro is trading lower on Monday as a squeezing-out of crowded short U.S. Dollar positions combined with safe-haven demand is driving investors into the greenback following its weakest monthly performance in ten years.

In other news, manufacturing activity across the Euro Zone expanded for the first time since early 2019 last month as demand rebounded after more easing of the restrictions imposed to quell the spread of the new coronavirus, a survey showed on Monday.

At 12:40 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1732, down 0.0040 or -0.33%.

Factories appear to be playing their part in the recovery in the Euro Zone. IHS Markit’s final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index bounced to 51.8 in July from June’s 47.4 – its first time above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction since January 2019. An initial “flash” release had it at 51.1.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, Friday’s closing price reversal top and subsequent follow-through to the downside has shifted momentum to the downside. This could trigger a 2 to 3 day correction of between 50% and 61.8% of the last rally.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 1.1371 will change the minor trend to down and confirm the shift in momentum.

The minor range is 1.1371 to 1.1909. Its retracement zone at 1.1640 to 1.1577 is the first downside target zone.

The main range is 1.1185 to 1.1909. Its retracement zone at 1.1547 to 1.1462 is the primary downside target zone.

Combining the two retracement zones creates a price cluster at 1.1577 to 1.1547. This zone also represents value so it should be attractive to buyers if tested.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The closing price reversal top is not a change in trend, but often used as a means to alleviate some of the excessive upside pressure.

Our work suggests a 2 to 3 correction is likely with 1.1640 to 1.1577 the first downside target zone. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to show up on a test of this level.

The EUR/USD should hit 1.1640 to 1.1577 if the downside momentum continues. If the downside momentum pauses or shifts back up then look for a retracement of the first leg down. This price is approximately 1.1812.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Monday, August 3 – Gold’s Consolidation – a Topping Pattern?

The gold futures contract reached another new record high on Friday at the price level of $2,005.40. The market has slightly extended its recent advance again. The market gained 0.97%, but the closing price was at around $20 below the daily high. Gold reached the highest in history following U.S. dollar sell-off, among other factors.

Gold is 0.4% lower this morning as it is slightly retracing Friday’s advance. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 3.66% on Friday and today it is 1.3% lower. Platinum gained 0.69% and today it is 0.3% higher. Palladium gained 0.49% on Friday and today it’s 1.2% higher. So precious metals trade within a short-term downward correction this morning. The gold price remains within a week-long consolidation along $1,950-2,000.

Friday’s Personal Income/ Personal Spending data release along with the sentiment numbers have been mixed. Today we will get the ISM Manufacturing PMI number at 10:00, among others. Expectations are at 53.6 – one point above the previous month’s release. The ISM Manufacturing PMI got back above the neutral level of 50 following steep declines in May and June.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Monday, August 3

  • 9:45 a.m. U.S. – Final Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices
  • All Day, Canada – Bank Holiday

Tuesday, August 4

  • 00:30 a.m. Australia – Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • 9:45 p.m. China – Caixin Services PMI

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Asian Shares Mixed; Nikkei Jumps Over 2 Percent after Yen Plunge, Shanghai Boosted by Manufacturing PMI

The major Asia-Pacific stock indexes finished mixed on Monday but mostly lower with both the Nikkei and Shanghai indexes posting more than 1.50% gains while the others sputtered. Japanese shares snapped six consecutive sessions of losses on Monday after the Yen retreated from a 4-1/2-month high against the dollar. Chinese stock jumped as key manufacturing data came in above expectations.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index settled at 22195.38, up 485.38 or +2.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24458.13, down 137.22 or -0.56% and South Korea’s KOSPI Index finished at 2251.04, up 1.67 or -0.07%.

China’s Shanghai Index settled at 3367.97, up 57.96 or +1.75% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index closed at 5926.10, down 1.70 or -0.03%.

China’s Factory Activity Expanded

Sentiment was helped by a survey showing China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in nearly a decade in July, with the Caixin/Markit PMI at 52.8, above expectations for a reading of 51.3 by economists in a Reuters poll. PMI readings above 50 signify expansion, while those that fall below that figure indicate contraction.

US-China Tensions Remain at Forefront

Tensions between Washington and Beijing likely continued being watched by investors, with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saying Sunday that U.S. President Donald Trump is set to announce “in the coming days” new actions related to Chinese software companies viewed by his administration as a national security threat.

On Friday, Trump told reporters he will act soon to ban Chinese-owned video app TikTok from the U.S., according to NBC News. Microsoft on Sunday confirmed it has held talks to buy TikTok in the U.S. from Chinese tech firm ByteDance.

Nikkei Rebounds on Wall Street Gains, Yen’s Retreat

Japanese shares ended six straight sessions of losses on Monday after the Japanese Yen retreated from a 4-1/2-month high against the dollar in a short squeeze. Exporters got a boost as the Yen fell to a low of 106.40 Yen against the dollar, moving away from a high of 104.195 yen touched on Friday.

Hang Seng Dragged Down by HSBC First-Half Profits Miss

HSBC reported a 65% fall in pre-tax profits for the first half of 2020 to $4.3 billion – missing analysts’ expectations.

Chief Executive Noel Quinn said the bank was “impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, falling interest rates, increased geopolitical risk and heightened levels of market volatility.”

HSBC shares in Hong Kong tumbled by more than 3% when trading resumed after a lunch break.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Weekly Bullish Breakout Signals Target at 155

The GBP/JPY is breaking above the key resistance trend line (dotted purple). This occurred after a double bottom around the 125 support. Can the GJ now test the previous top?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

The GBP/JPY seems ready for a bullish wave C (pink) due to the break above the 21 ema zone and resistance trend line. But the long-term MAs remain bearish. A new break is needed before a full upswing can be confirmed. A bullish break, flag, and continuation would confirm that upside (green checks). The main target could be 155 at the previous top.

Price action should remain last week’s candle low and overall support zone (blue lines). A bearish breakout below that support zone invalidates the bullish outlook (red x). A bearish breakout could trigger an unexpected bearish swing (dotted orange arrow). In that case, price could build an inverted head and shoulders pattern.

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

OIL Break Below 38.80 is Possible as the Price is Bearish

Oil has moved lower making a swing below 40, which implies a possible bearish continuation. We could see 38.80.

The POC zone is 40.50-41.00. We might see a move towards the POC zone first before the next rejection. If not then a direct drop might happen from 40.00. A bearish rejection off the zone should be targeting 39.60 and 39.31. A retest of 38.80 is important. Continuation below towards 37.26 at the break of 38.80. Only above 41.00, bears will be in danger.

The Analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.Core and Sit Systems

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Tries To Gain More Ground

GBP/USD Video 03.08.20.

U.S. Democrats And Republicans Fail To Reach Coronavirus Aid Package Deal

GBP/USD trades near 1.3100 as the U.S. dollar is mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies amid continued negotiations about the new U.S. coronavirus aid package.

The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized near 93.5 after rebounding from recent lows at 92.5. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats continued their negotiations during the weekend but failed to reach a deal.

According to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Republicans wanted to extend some federal unemployment benefits while continuing negotiations on the whole package but Democrats wanted a comprehensive deal.

He also added that he was not optimistic that negotiations would successfully conclude in the near term.

Failure to extend special unemployment benefits poses risks for consumer activity which is the main driver of the U.S. economy. On the other hand, excessive money-printing could put additional pressure on the U.S. dollar and its status as the world’s main reserve currency.

Today, traders will have to digest UK Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Manufacturing PMI reports for July.

UK Manufacturing PMI is projected to increase from 50.1 in June to 53.6 in July.

In the U.S., Manufacturing PMI is expected to grow from 49.8 to 51.3. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

Manufacturing was not hit as hard as services during the current crisis so there’s a good chance that today’s data will be optimistic and provide some additional support to riskier assets.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd august 3 2020

GBP/USD tries to stabilize near 1.3100 following the major upside move.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle above 1.3100, it will have a good chance to test the nearest resistance level at 1.3200.

On the support side, the nearest support level is located at 1.3070. GBP/USD has already made an attempt to settle below this level but this attempt was unsuccessful.

If GBP/USD settles below 1.3070, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3020.

Currently, GBP/USD continues to move in a rather tight upside channel, and the upside trend remains intact.

However, RSI is still in the overbought territory, suggesting that risks of correction remain elevated.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The COVID-19 Stimulus Package and Manufacturing PMIs Put the Dollar and EUR in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning.  The Japanese Yen and the Aussie Dollar were in action, with economic data from China also in focus.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and the U.S stimulus package continued to be an area of focus.

Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers

According to figures at the time of writing, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 249,532 to 18,231,469 on Sunday. On Saturday, the number of new cases had risen by 250,087. The daily increase was lower than Saturday’s rise while up from 213,347 new cases from the previous Sunday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 623 new cases on Sunday, which was down from 707 new cases on Saturday. On the previous Saturday, 663 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 50,702 to 4,813,647 on Sunday. On Saturday, the total number of cases had increased by 60,171. On Sunday, 26th July, a total of 56,130 new cases had been reported.

For the Japanese Yen

Finalized GDP numbers for the 1st quarter remained unchanged from 2nd estimates. In the 1st quarter, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.6%, following a 1.9% contraction in the 4th quarter.

On an annualized basis, the economy contracted by 2.2%, which was also in line with 2nd estimates. In the 4th quarter, the economy had contracted by 7.3%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.858 to ¥105.844 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% to ¥105.90 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

The AIG Manufacturing Index rose from 51.5 to 53.5 in July.

According to the July Survey,

  • The sector expanded for a 2nd consecutive month, a first since October of last year.
  • The food & beverage and machinery & equipment sectors delivered much-needed support in the month.
  • In spite of the expansion, there was continued weakness across the other sectors.
  • Production, employment, supplier deliveries, and finished stocks expanded at a faster rate than in June, however.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71412 to $0.71423 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.14% to $0.7133.

Out of China

In July, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 52.8. Economists had forecast a rise to 51.3.

According to the July survey,

  • New business from overseas fell at the slowest rate in 6-months, as new orders rose at the quickest pace since Jan-11.
  • Companies also reported the quickest expansion in output since January 2011.
  • Output expanded for a 5th consecutive month, driven by greater client demand as the economic recovery gathered pace.
  • Manufacturers ramped up their buying activity, the rate of expansion the most marked in seven-and-a-half years.
  • In spite of a rise in backlogs and new orders, firms cut staffing levels again in July.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71303 to $0.71366 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.02% to $0.6630.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include July manufacturing PMI figures for Spain and Italy.

Finalized manufacturing PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Barring a marked revision to Germany’s numbers, we would expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to have the greatest impact.

Following some quite dire 2nd quarter GDP numbers last week, a further pickup in manufacturing sector activity would be welcome.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.07% to $1.1770.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. July’s finalized manufacturing PMI is due out later this morning.

Barring any revisions, however, the PMI should have a muted impact on the Pound.

Chatter on Brexit and market risk sentiment will influence, as will updates on the latest COVID-19 outbreak.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.3088.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. July’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and finalized Markit Manufacturing PMI figures are due out.

Expect the ISM figures to have the greatest impact on the day. The employment and new orders sub-indexes will likely garner plenty of interest.

Away from the calendar, the focus will remain on Capitol Hill and the progress of the COVID-19 stimulus package.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.16% to 93.499.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and the PMI numbers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.03% to C$1.3408 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: Economic Data and the U.S Stimulus Bill in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Monday, 3rd August

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

French Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Final

Wednesday, 5th August

Spanish Services PMI (Jul)

Italian Services PMI (Jul)

French Services PMI (Jul) Final

German Services PMI (Jul) Final

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Jul) Final

Eurozone Services PMI (Jul) Final

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

Thursday, 6th August

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)

IHS Markit Construction PMI (Jul)

Friday, 7th August

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)

German Trade Balance (Jun)

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q2)

The Majors

It was another bearish day for the European majors on Friday, with the CAC40 sliding by 1.43% to lead the way. The DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 weren’t far behind, with losses of 0.54% and 0.89% respectively.

Negative sentiment towards the economic outlook weighed as the markets responded further to dire 2nd quarter GDP numbers.

The disappointing figures together with the upward trend in new COVID-19 cases continued to raise doubts over a speedy economic recovery.

In the week, Spain and the UK were amongst countries having to reintroduce containment measures.

The negative sentiment ultimately overshadowed upbeat tech earnings results on the day.

The Stats

It was another busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included 2nd quarter GDP from France and the Eurozone. June retail sales figures from France and Germany and Eurozone and member state prelim inflation figures were also in focus.

It was the GDP numbers that weighed, however. In the 2nd quarter, the French economy contracted by 13.8%, with the Eurozone economy contracting by 12.1%.

German retail sales rose by 5.9% in June, following a 12.7% jump in May, with French consumer spending up by 9.0%. In May, French consumer spending had surged by 37.4%.

While both sets of numbers came in ahead of forecasts there were not good enough to shift the mood.

From the U.S

Economic data included June’s personal spending and inflation figures. While inflationary pressures eased, personal spending was on the rise at the end of the quarter.

The increase was not enough to ease concerns over the U.S economic outlook, however.

Personal spending rose by 5.6%, while the annual rate of inflation softened from 1.0% to 0.90% In May, personal spending had jumped by 8.5%.

Late in the European session, finalized consumer sentiment figures were revised down, adding to the market angst.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was another particularly bearish day for the auto sector on Friday. Continental and Volkswagen slid by 5.00% and by 4.39% to lead the way down. BMW and Daimler saw more modest losses of 3.85% and 3.67% respectively.

Volkswagen continued to struggle after having reported an operating loss for the 1st half and a dividend cut on Thursday.

It was a mixed day for the banks, however. While Deutsche Bank fell by 0.38%, Commerzbank rose by 1.02%.

From the CAC, it was another bearish day for the banks. Soc Gen and Credit Agricole both fell by 1.43%, with BNP Paribas falling by 0.77%.

It was a more bearish day for the French auto sector. While Peugeot slid by 3.19%, Renault tumbled by a further 7.86% following a 9.26% slide on Thursday.

Air France-KLM joined the broader pack, falling by 2.35%, with Airbus SE ending the day down by 2.10%

On the VIX Index

It was a back into the red for the VIX on Friday. Partially reversing a 2.74% gain from Thursday, the VIX fell by 1.21% to end the day at 24.46.

The downside came as the U.S equity markets brushed off dire economic data in response to positive tech earnings results.

The S&P500 and NASDAQ rose by 0.77% and by 1.49% respectively, with the Dow gaining 0.44%.

VIX 03/08/20 Daily Chart

 

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats July manufacturing PMIs from Italy and Spain.

Finalized PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

While the markets will focus on Germany’s numbers, expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to also influence.

From the U.S

The markets preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI and finalized Market Manufacturing PMI figures are due out.

Expect the ISM survey figures to have the greatest impact on the markets.

Away from the economic calendar, corporate earnings, and updates from Capitol Hill on the passage of the COVID-19 stimulus package will also influence.

From the weekend, COVID-19 updates were negative, however, which will test the markets early on.

The Latest Coronavirus Figures

According to figures at the time of writing, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 249,532 to 18,231,469 on Sunday. On Saturday, the number of new cases had risen by 250,087. The daily increase was lower than Saturday’s rise while up from 213,347 new cases from the previous Sunday.

Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 623 new cases on Sunday, which was down from 707 new cases on Saturday. On the previous Saturday, 663 new cases had been reported.

From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 50,702 to 4,813,647 on Sunday. On Saturday, the total number of cases had increased by 60,171. On Sunday, 26th July, a total of 56,130 new cases had been reported.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the DAX was up by 7.5 points, while the Dow was down by 45 points. A pickup in manufacturing sector activity in China provided the DAX with support ahead of the open.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – August 3rd, 2020

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 8.02% on Sunday. Reversing a 6.01% rally from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week up by 17.95% to $56.77.

It was a mixed start to the day. Litecoin rallied to an early morning intraday high $65.31 before hitting reverse.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $63.51 before tumbling to an early morning intraday low $52.70.

The second major resistance level at $65.29 capped the upside in the early morning.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $58.79 and the second major support level at $55.85.

Avoiding sub-$55 support levels, Litecoin briefly revisited $59 levels before falling back through the first and second major support levels.

A late move back through the second major support level reduced the deficit on the day.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 0.93% to $57.30. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning low $55.72 before striking a high $57.60.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early in the day.

LTC/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $58.26 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $63.82.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $60 levels.

Barring another crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the $58.26 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $54 and the first major support level at $51.21 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$50 levels. The second major support level sits at $45.65.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $51.21

First Major Resistance Level: $63.82

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $54

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $78

62% FIB Retracement Level: $104

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 4.85% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 10.76% rally from Saturday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the week up by 3.29% to $0.10265.

A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.11585 before hitting reverse.

Stellar’s Lumen broke through the first major resistance level at $0.11191 before sliding to an early morning intraday low $0.090025.

The reversal saw Stellar’s Lumen fall through the first major support level at $0.10029 and the second major support level at $0.092920 and 23.6% FIB of $0.0928.

Finding support, Stellar’s Lumen briefly revisited $0.1075 levels before falling back through the first major support level to sub-$0.10 levels.

Finding late support, however, Stellar’s Lumen moved back through the first major support level to reduce the deficit.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was up by 2.21% to $0.10492. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen fall to an early morning low $0.10199 before striking a high $0.10573.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLM/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to avoid a fall back through the $0.10284 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.11566.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.11 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely limit any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.0.10284 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.08983 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer of sub-$0.090 levels on the day.

The 23.6% FIB of $0.09280 should limit any downside on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.08983

First Major Resistance Level: $0.11566

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.09960

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.14336518

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2050

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX slid by 7.24% on Sunday. Reversing a 3.92% gain from Saturday, Tron’s TRX ended the week up by 2.29% to $0.019013.

Tracking the broader market, Tron’s TRX rallied to an early morning intraday high $0.021237 before hitting reverse.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $0.02101, Tron’s TRX tumbled to an early intraday low $0.017800.

Tron’s TRX fell through the first major support level at $0.01969 and the second major support level at $0.01892.

Steering clear of the third major support level at $0.01760, Tron’s TRX revisited $0.01960 levels before sliding back.

The first major support level pinned Tron’s TRX back.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was up by 1.90% to $0.019375. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall to an early morning low $0.018847 before rising to a high $0.019375.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRX/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to avoid a fall back through the $0.01935 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.02090.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break out back through to $0.020 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $0.01935 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $0.01746 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should avoid a return to sub-$0.018 levels on the day.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.01746

First Major Resistance Level: $0.02090

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0452

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0663

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 3rd, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 6.36% on Sunday. Reversing a 4.01% rally from Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week up by 11.11% to $11,053.8.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $12,097 before hitting reverse.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $12,022.8 before sliding to an early morning intraday low $10,548.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $11,406.8 and the second major support level at $11,008.9.

Steering clear of the third major support level at $10,392.9, Bitcoin briefly revisited $11,300 levels before easing back.

Bitcoin broke back through the second major support level to limit the loss on the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Sunday.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (-11.53%), Bitcoin Cash SV (-11.14%), EOS (-10.93%) led the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-7.16%), Litecoin (-8.02%), and Tron’s TRX (-7.24%) also saw heavy losses

Binance Coin (-3.10%), Ethereum (-3.92%), Monero’s XMR (-5.16%), Ripple’s XRP (-1.25%), Stellar’s Lumen (-4.85%), and Tezos (-4.89%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

While it was a bearish Sunday, it was a mixed week.

Ripple’s XRP rallied by 33.5% to lead the way.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+13.82%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+15.09%), Ethereum (+19.52%), and Litecoin (+17.95%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+7.10%), EOS (+8.23%), Monero’s XMR (+8.71%), Stellar’s Lumen (+3.29%), and Tron’s TRX (+2.29%) trailed the front runners.

Cardano’s ADA (-9.99%) and Tezos (-3.19%) bucked the trend in the week, however.

In the week, the crypto total market cap rose from a Monday low $284.79bn to a Sunday high $362.06bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $331.14bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Tuesday high 64.58% before sliding to a Sunday low 61.66%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 62.07.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.69% to $11,130.5. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $10,943.0 before rising to a high $11,169.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bullish start to the day. Stellar’s Lumen was up by 2.46%, at the time of writing, to lead the way.

BTC/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $11,233 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $11,918.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from $11,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could eye the second major resistance level at $12,782.

Failure to move through the $11,233 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $10,369 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$10,500 levels on the day.

 

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – August 3rd, 2020

EOS

EOS slid by 10.93% on Sunday. Reversing a 6.71% gain from Saturday, EOS ended the week up by 8.23% to $2.9409.

It was a choppy start to the day. EOS rose to an early morning intraday high $3.4852 before hitting reverse.

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $3.4029 before tumbling to an early morning intraday low $2.4884.

The sell-off saw EOS slide through the day’s major support levels before briefly revisiting $3.0 levels.

EOS moved back through the third major support level at $2.7121 and the second major support level at $2.9748.

It was a bearish 2nd half of the day, however. EOS fell back through the second major support level to end the day in the deep red.

At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.75% to $2.9631. A mixed start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning low $2.9022 before rising to a high $2.9631.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move through the $2.9715 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.4546.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back through to $3.40 levels.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the $2.9715 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2.4578 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, EOS should steer well clear of the second major support level at $1.9747.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2.4578

Pivot Level: $2.9715

First Major Resistance Level: $3.4546

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.92% on Sunday. Partially reversing an 11.69% rally from Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 19.52% to $371.21.

Tracking the broader market, Ethereum rallied to an early morning intraday high $415.00 before hitting reverse.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $406.35 before tumbling to an early morning intraday low $325.75.

The selloff saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $356.1 before finding support.

More significantly, Ethereum also fell through the 38.2% FIB of $367 before the partial recovery.

Ethereum moved back through to $389 levels before falling back to end the day at sub-$380.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.00% to $375.93. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $366.34 before rising to a high $376.63.

While leaving the major support and resistance levels untested, Ethereum found support at the 38.2% FIB of $367 early on.

ETH/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $371 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $416.22.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out form Saturday’s high $415.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

A fall through the $371 pivot would bring the first major support level at $326.97 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer well clear of the second major support level at $281.74.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $326.97

Pivot Level: $371

First Major Resistance Level: $416.22

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 1.25% on Sunday. Following a 12.06% rally on Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week up by 33.50% to $0.28764.

A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $0.3262 before hitting reverse.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.3071 and the second major resistance level at $0.3233.

The reversal saw Ripple’s XRP slide through the first major support level at $0.2653 to an intraday low $0.24158.

Steering clear of sub-$0.24 support levels, Ripple’s XRP revisited $0.30 levels before falling back into the red.

In spite of the bearish day, Ripple’s XRP moved back through the first major support level to limit the loss.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 2.95% to $0.29612. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.28383 before rising to a high $0.29661.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 03/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2851 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.3287.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Saturday’s high $0.3262.

Barring another broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ripple’s XRP could make a run at the second major resistance level at $0.0.3698.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2851 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2441 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should avoid sub-$0.24 levels, however.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.24441

Pivot Level: $0.2851

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3287

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 2nd, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 4.01% on Saturday. Following a 2.04% gain on Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $11,804.7.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $11,227 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $11,080, Bitcoin rallied to a late intraday high $11,843.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $11,530 and the second major resistance level at $11,710.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bullish day on Saturday.

Ethereum (+11.69%), Ripple’s XRP (+12.06%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+10.76%) led the way.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+6.05%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+5.97%), EOS (+6.71%), Litecoin (+6.01%), Monero’s XMR (+5.94%), and Tezos (+6.87%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+4.64%), Cardano’s ADA (+3.79%), and Tron’s TRX (+3.92%) trailed the front runners on the day.

In the current week, the crypto total market cap rose from a Monday low $285.49bn to a Saturday high $349.72bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $348.82bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose from a Monday low 62.44% to a Tuesday high 64.58% before sliding back. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 62.69.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.04% to $11,800. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $11,788 before rising to a high $11,845.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+0.09%), Ethereum (+0.45%), Monero’s XMR (+0.30%), Stellar’s Limen (+0.58%), and Tron’s TRX (+0.87%) found early support.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however, with Litecoin down by 0.87% to lead the way down.

BTC/USD 02/08/20 Daily Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the $11,625 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $12,023.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from Saturday’s high $11,843.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could eye the second major resistance level at $12,241.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $11,625 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $11,407 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $11,009 and sub-$11,000 levels.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 1st, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 2.04% on Friday. Following a 0.05% gain on Thursday, Bitcoin ended the month up by 24.04% to $11,350.0.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $10,990 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,923.2, Bitcoin rose to a late afternoon intraday high $11,440.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $11,255.4 and the second major resistance level at $11,387.8.

A late pullback saw Bitcoin fall back through the resistance levels before finding support.

Bitcoin broke back through the first major resistance level to wrap up the day at $11,350 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest move through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Binance Coin (+7.76%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+7.19%), and Ripple’s XRP (+6.22%) led the way.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+2.22%), Ethereum (+3.46%), Litecoin (+2.46%), and Monero’s XMR (+4.39%), also found strong support.

EOS (+1.36%), Stellar’s Lumen (+0.73%), Tezos (+1.44%), and Tron’s TRX (+1.93%) trailed the front runners.

Cardano’s ADA bucked the trend, however, falling by 1.17%.

It was a bullish July for the crypto market.

Cardano’s ADA surged by 67.38% to lead the majors.

Bitcoin Cash SV (+46.21%), Ethereum (+53.82%), Litecoin (+41.45%), Ripple’s XRP (+48.21%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+45.72%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+34.44%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (+34.87%), EOS (+30.56%), Monero’s XMR (33.17%), Tezos (+20.69%), and Tron’s TRX (+20.39%) trailed the front runners.

In the current week, the crypto total market cap rose from a Monday low $285.49bn to a Monday high $335.81bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $326.94bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose from a Monday low 62.44% to a Tuesday high 64.58% before easing back. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 63.53.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.82% to $11,257.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $11,398 before falling to a low $11,238.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.14%), Cardano’s ADA (+0.21%), and Stellar’s Lumen (+0.69%) found early support.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however. Ripple’s XRP was down by 1.44% to lead the way down.

BTC/USD 01/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $11,260 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $11,530.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from Friday’s high $11,440.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could eye the second major resistance level at $11,710.

Failure to move through the $11,260 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $11,080 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$11,000 levels and the second major support level at $10,810.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Chart Pattern Indicates Heightened Volatility

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures finished higher after clawing back earlier losses in what proved to be a very volatile trading session. Stocks opened higher then fell to their lows of the session as concerns about the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic replaced early bullishness from stunning quarterly earnings reports by Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook. However, the market managed to recapture those losses into the futures market close despite a lower cash market close.

On Friday, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 3269.50, up 20.75 or +0.63%.

The S&P Technology Sector, a major component of the overall index, was boosted by a strong performance in shares of all three tech heavyweights.

Apple Inc shared surged to reach a record high in the wake of blowout quarterly earnings results and a four-for one stock split announcement.

Amazon.com Inc jumped after posting the biggest profit in its 26-year history, while Facebook Inc gained after it reported better-than-expected revenue.

Google-parent Alphabet Inc, on the other hand, fell as quarterly sales dipped for the first time in its 16 years as a public company.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Thursday, but the rally fizzled earlier today after an attempted breakout over 3269.00 failed to attract enough buyers to extend the move. Late in the session, however, the index managed to reaffirm the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3195.00, but were not likely to see an acceleration to the downside unless the selling is strong enough to talk out the next main bottom at 3191.50.

The short-term range is 3284.50 – 3191.50. Its 50% level at 3238.00 appears to be controlling the near-term direction of the index. Traders straddled this price level four times this week as they tried to establish direction.

The short-term range is 3105.25 to 3284.50. Its retracement zone at 3194.75 to 3173.75 is support. It has been propping up the index since July 15.

The main range is 2923.75 to 3284.50. Its retracement zone at 3104.00 to 3061.50 is another potential support zone.

Short-Term Outlook

Based on this week’s price action, it looks like we are likely to experience a volatile trade next week because of the tight trading range. Traders don’t like to see the same prices every day. They want movement and action.

A volatile breakout to the upside could start on a sustained move over 3238.00. Other potential trigger points for an acceleration to the upside are 3273.75 and 3284.50.

On the downside, crossing to the weak side of the short-term Fibonacci level at 3173.75 is likely to draw in the short-sellers. Also contributing to a potential acceleration to the downside will be sell stops placed under 3173.75.

If traders hit this level with selling conviction then don’t be surprised by an acceleration to the downside with the first target a support cluster at 3105.25 to 3104.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – August 1st, 2020

EOS

EOS rose by 1.36% on Friday, Following on from a 0.90% gain on Thursday, EOS ended the month up by 30.56% to $3.0950.

It was a mixed start to the day. EOS fell to an early morning intraday low $3.0163 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2.9763, EOS rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $3.1481

EOS broke through the first major resistance level at $3.1191 before easing back to sub-$3.10 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.17% to $3.0896. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $3.1155 before falling to a low $3.0896.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 01/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to avoid a fall through the $3.0865 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.1566.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break back out from Friday’s high $3.1481.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $3.0865 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.0248 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, EOS should steer clear of the second major support level at $2.9547.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.0248

Pivot Level: $3.0865

First Major Resistance Level: $3.1566

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.46% on Friday. Following on from a 5.39% rally on Thursday, Ethereum ended the month up by 53.82% to $346.86.

Another mixed start saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $328.35 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $319.09, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $349.74.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $346.97 to test resistance at $350 before easing back.

Ethereum slipped back through the first major resistance level at $346.97 late in the day.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.28% to $345.88. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $347.99 before falling to a low $345.56.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 01/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $341.65 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $354.95.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out form Friday’s high $349.74.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

A fall through the $341.65 pivot would bring the first major support level at $333.56 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer well clear of the second major support level at $320.26.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $333.56

Pivot Level: $341.65

First Major Resistance Level: $354.95

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rallied by 6.22% on Friday. Following on from a 0.36% gain on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the month up by 48.21% to $0.25983.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP fell to an early morning intraday low $0.24201 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2359, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late intraday high $0.26078.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2517 and the second major resistance level at $0.2587.

On the day, it was the first visit to $0.26 levels since early February before wrapping up the day at $0.2590 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.28% to $0.25909. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.26021 before falling to a low $0.25833.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 01/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2542 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2664.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Friday’s high $0.26078.

Barring another broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ripple’s XRP would likely test the second major resistance level at $0.0.2730 before any pullback.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2542 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2476 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should avoid sub-$0.25 levels, however.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2476

Pivot Level: $0.2542

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2664

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Weather News Dominates the Trade

Natural gas futures finished lower on Friday as summer heat moderated, a hurricane headed toward Florida potentially zapping cooling demand and surging coronavirus-cases continued to weigh on demand. Bespoke Weather Services expected temperatures in many parts of the country to cool down over the coming week.

Meanwhile, Isaias strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane late Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). At the end of the week, it looks as if the weather is going to dominate the news over the next week or two.

On Friday, September Natural Gas futures settled at $1.816, down $0.013 or -0.71%.

Bespoke also said its weather models showed “a sizable trough diving into the middle of the nation, which pushes eastward slowly” over the first full week of August. “We also expect some impact along the East Coast from Hurricane Isaias the next few days. It is not clear yet if the storm will bring demand destruction to the big cities of the East, but that is a possibility.”

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Friday that the hurricane has crossed the Dominican Republic with sustained winds up to 80 mph and was battering the Southeastern Bahamas with heavy rains and strong winds that threatened severe flooding. The hurricane was expected to approach Florida’s east coast by Saturday, with rain totals up to six inches in some areas over the weekend, the NHC said.

In continuing our weather theme, analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) said the sustained intensity of heat over most of July generated strong demand and eased the risk of filling storage.

“On the other hand, weather forecasts are trending materially cooler for August and this will likely push inventories above the high end of the five-year range through August,” the TPH analysts said. They said the latest injection “implies a roughly balanced market on weather-adjusted basis” and expect the coming week to look “very similar, with our early modeling pointing to a build of 26 Bcf.”

Looking ahead to next week, according to NatGasWeather.com for August 3-9, “An unseasonably strong cool shot will bring showers and comfortable highs of 70s to 80s to the central U.S., Midwest and Ohio Valley this week for much lighter national demand. Heavy rain is expected along the East Coast Monday – Tuesday as Tropical Storm Isaias tracks northward. Regionally hot conditions continue across the West and far southern U.S. with highs of 90s to 100s. Warmer conditions will push into the central and northern U.S. next weekend, while hot most elsewhere, increasing national demand back to strong levels.”

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Closing Price Reversal Bottom Could Alleviate Downward Pressure

The Dollar/Yen closed higher on Friday after posting a dramatic closing price reversal bottom. The move may have been fueled by end-of-the-month position-squaring or profit-taking. Some traders said better-than-expected U.S. consumer spending news may have caught short-sellers off-guard fueling a massive short-covering rally in all major currencies.

On Friday, the USD/JPY settled at 105.935, up 1.199 or +1.14%.

The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 5.6% last month after a record 8.5% jump in May as more businesses reopened.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending would advance 5.5% in June. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 5.2% last month after surging 8.4% in May.

Traders also said the increase in consumer spending sets up consumption for a rebound in the third quarter, though the recovery could be limited by a resurgence in COViD-19 cases and the end of expanded unemployment benefits.

Daily USD/JPY

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 107.530 will change the main trend to up. A trade through 104.189 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The closing price reversal bottom will be confirmed on at trade through 106.055. This chart pattern will not change the trend to up, but it will indicate that the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels. It’s basically an adjustment in the main trend, designed to alleviate some of the downside pressure.

The short-term range is 107.530 to 104.189. Its 50% level at 105.860 could act like a pivot over the near-term as investors try to determine whether the dollar has taken enough of a beating or if it’s ready for round two.

The main range is 112.226 to 104.189. Its retracement zone is resistance and a possible upside target. It is essentially controlling the longer-term direction of the USD/JPY.

Daily USD/JPY

Short-Term Outlook

Although some short-term traders are focusing on the closing price reversal bottom and they very well should be because there is the threat of a sizeable retracement and a major giveback of profit, the longer-term traders are keeping their eyes on U.S. interest rates.

Treasury yields continued to move lower on Friday with short-maturity rates reaching record lows as investors remained worried about the pace of economic recovery.

Yields are what the major players are watching. So unless there is a dramatic turnaround in U.S. Treasury yields, most of the longer-term investors are likely going to fade this possible upcoming short-covering rally, and look for another entry level to increase their short positions.

NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Bearish Tone Could Develop on Sustained Move Under .6666

Volatility hit the New Zealand Dollar on Friday with the currency first grinding to a multi-month high before turning lower for the session and wiping out the week’s gains. The whip-saw price action could have been fueled by end-of-the-month profit-taking or profit-taking ahead of next week’s New Zealand labor market reports.

On Friday, the NZD/USD settled at .6628, down 0.0073 or -1.09%.

The firming of U.S. Treasury yields could have influenced the price action. Recently, the Kiwi has been supported by the widening in real bond yield differentials as U.S. rates tanked in July. On Friday, U.S. Treasury yields moved lower with short-maturity rates reaching record lows before firming later in the session.

Economic news could have also triggered the volatile response. On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department said consumer spending increased for a second straight month in June, setting up consumption for a rebound in the third quarter.

Countering this news, however, was Congress’ inability to pass a coronavirus stimulus plan in a timely matter.

If so many off-setting news events, we have to conclude that good old-fashioned profit-taking was behind the reversal in prices.

Daily NZD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed early Friday as prices edged toward the December 31, 2019 main top at .6756.

A trade through .6716 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a trade through .6615 will change the main trend to down.

The Kiwi also formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. A confirmation of this chart pattern on money could shift momentum to the downside and change the main trend to down. Trader reaction to .6623, .6620 and .6615 will set the tone. This is a major support cluster in my opinion that has to hold to continue the uptrend.

The minor range is .6615 to .6716. Its pivot at .6666 is resistance.

The short-term range is .6503 to .6716. Its retracement zone at .6609 to .6584 is potential support. This is followed by the main support zone at .6548 to .6509.

Short-Term Outlook

The first key level to watch on Monday is the pivot at .6666. A sustained move under this level will indicate the presence of sellers and could generate the downside momentum needed to trigger another round of technical selling.

We’re close enough to .6615 to change the trend on Monday. So this would be the second level to watch. The bullishness starts to deteriorate if .6584 fails as support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.