GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Fails at 200 Day EMA

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Friday but then gave back gains near the 200 day EMA. That being said, the market is likely to continue to reach towards the 1.36 handle underneath. The 1.36 handle has been an area of support previously, and therefore if we break down through that I think that the market will probably fall apart. Quite frankly, that is an area that has been important multiple times, and therefore I think it would attract a lot of attention if we fall through it.

GBP/USD Video 27.09.21

Breaking down through that level then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 1.35 handle, possibly even down to the 1.30 level over the longer term. I have no interest in trying to get long of this market anytime soon, with the 50 day EMA curling towards the 200 day EMA. If it does break down below it, then you get the infamous “death cross” that a lot of people pay so much attention to. The market is likely to see a lot of traders trying to push through the bottom, and if they do, it is very likely that the market goes looking towards much lower levels.

If we did somehow break above the 50 day EMA, then it would be a very bullish sign, but it is not until we break above the 1.39 level that I would start to get truly bullish. At that point, I think that the British pound could take off towards 1.42 handle. Obviously, that would take a lot of effort, but if we did break out to the upside it would be an explosive move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Gives Up Early Gains

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but gave back early gains as it looks like the impulsive candlestick from the previous session is being fought against. Whether or not we can continue to pullback will probably be greatly influenced by the USD/JPY pair, as the strength or weakness of the Japanese yen can show up in that market. That being said, the British pound itself is relatively strong, and therefore it is very possible that although we pull back, and drop from here, the possibility is that it is choppy on the way down.

GBP/JPY Video 27.09.21

On the other hand, if we were to turn around a break above the top of the candlestick for the Friday session, it is likely that we could go looking towards the 152 ¥0.50 level, which is where we had seen a lot of resistance previously. As things are turning around at the moment, and very much looks like we are going to go looking towards the ¥149 level underneath. Breaking down below that level will open up quite a bit of selling pressure at that point, because quite frankly the market is looking very likely to be forming a larger topping pattern.

Looking at this chart, we have made a longer series of lower highs, but we obviously have a significant support barrier underneath. That being said, if we do break down through that barrier, this is a market that will be very negative to say the least, but at this point in time we look as if we are ready to continue chopping around in this area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Gives Up Gains Heading Into the Weekend

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but then broke down from here to show signs of weakness again. That being said, the market looks as if the 1.17 level is going to be targeted, and if we break down through their it is likely that we could go looking towards 1.16 level. The market has been in a downtrend for a while, and therefore it is likely that we will continue to go to the downside.

EUR/USD Video 27.09.21

To the upside, the market breaking above the 1.175 level would open up the market for a move towards the 50 day EMA. The 50 day EMA of course is sloping lower and showing signs of negativity. At this point, it is very likely that the market will continue to see this as a negative area of resistance, so keep that in mind. If we break above it, that could be a huge difference, but at this point we are starting to ask questions of the US dollar strength around the world, and this will be a great indicator as to where the dollar is going against multiple other currencies.

If we turn around a break above the highs of the last couple of days, the then I think the short term downward pressure could in for a short-term move, but all things been equal, this is a market that is going to be asking questions as to whether or not we had just formed a double bottom, or are we going to continue to grind lower?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Gets Hammered During Friday Session

The Australian dollar has initially rally during the course of the trading session on Friday but gave back gains rather rapidly as situations in China continue to cause issues with risk appetite. The Australian dollar of course is very sensitive to the overall risk appetite around the world, and as long as we have problems with the overall risk situation, the Australian dollar will be somewhat sensitive to the latest headlines.

AUD/USD Video 27.09.21

To the downside, we have the 0.72 level is a major support level, and therefore if we break down below there, I think that the Australian dollar will fall rather hard. At this point in time, the market is likely to continue to see downward pressure as there are a lot of concerns around the world beyond China as well. That being said, the market is likely to see a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, if we do turn around and rally to take out the candlestick to the upside from the previous session, then we could go looking towards the 50 day EMA above.

The market will continue to be noisy regardless, due to the fact that there are so many moving pieces right now. That being said, we have been in a downtrend for a while so it should not surprise that we have continued to see downward pressure. All things been equal, this is a market that I think that this is a market that continues to see a lot of negative pressure, and therefore at this point in time it is likely that we will continue to see pressure, and therefore I am paying close attention to the bottom of the last several candlesticks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Renewed Evergrande Uncertainty Fueling Two-Sided Response

Gold is trading higher but in a tight range on Friday after a drop in Treasury yields drove investors into the non-yielding asset. Gains are likely being capped by a stronger U.S. Dollar. The catalysts behind Friday’s price action are renewed concerns over the fate of China’s Evergrande debt payments.

At 11:43 GMT, December Comex gold is trading $1752.50, up $2.70 or +0.15%.

Today’s price action suggests traders may have moved on from yesterday’s weakness that was fueled by Wednesday’s hawkish comments from the Fed regarding the timing of its tapering plans and its first rate hike.

It’s hard to tell at the moment if gold traders are turning into buyers because of the warning from China to local authorities over a possible collapse of Evergrande or sellers because of the prospects of rate hikes from several central banks.

Gold is trading nearly flat this week despite heightened volatility. This suggests traders aren’t sure about how to play the uncertainty over Evergrande, which has been driving investors into the safety of the U.S. Dollar and other themes ranging from the Fed’s tapering and rate hike expectations.

Ultimately, it all comes down to the direction of interest rates and to some extent the U.S. Dollar. When they aren’t moving in the same direction, gold traders have a hard time figuring out which direction they want to lean on. This tends to lead to low volume, which tightens up the trading range.

Evergrande Stays Silent on its $83 Million Dollar Bond Interest Payment, Leaving Investors in Limbo

Clearly, the Evergrande debt problem is not going to go away anytime soon and is likely to remain a concern headed into the weekend. This could be the source of volatility throughout today’s session especially into the close.

Chinese property developer Evergrande has not said whether it will fulfil its interest payments on its U.S.-dollar bond- a key milestone investors have been keeping their eyes on.

The interest payment due Thursday amounted to $83 million. It was for a $2 billion dollar-denominated bond that’s due to mature in March 2022. Dollar bonds are typically held by foreign investors.

As of Friday morning during Asia hours, the company had not made any announcement, or any filing to the Hong Kong exchange, leaving investors in limbo.

Evergrande has warned it may default on its debt. Investors are watching the developments closely, amid fears of contagion that could spread to other markets.

Chinese authorities have reportedly told local officials to prepare for Evergrande’s potential demise, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Gold traders should get ready to do the volatility dance with Evergrande debt payments due each month in October, November and December.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Friday, Sep. 24 – Gold Below and Back Above $1,750

The gold futures contract lost 1.63% on Thursday, as it retraced its Monday’s-Wednesday’s advance after rebounding from $1,750 price level. On Thursday a week ago, gold broke below the recent local lows as series of the U.S. economic data releases along with the rallying U.S. dollar led to a sell-off in precious metals. The yellow metal came back to $1,750 price level. This morning the market is trading sligthly above $1,750 again, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Today gold is 0.8% higher, as it is retracing some of yesterday’s decline. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.7% higher, platinum is 0.8% lower and palladium is 0.5% higher. So precious metals’ prices are higher this morning.

Yesterday’s Unemployment Claims release has been worse than expected at 351,000 and the Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI releases have been as expected. Today we will get the New Home Sales and a speech from the Fed Chair Powell at 10:00 a.m.

Where would the price of gold go following Wednesday’s FOMC release? We’ve compiled the data since January of 2017, a 54-month-long period of time that contains of thirty eight FOMC releases. The following chart shows average gold price path before and after the FOMC releases for the past 38 releases. The market was usually declining ahead of the FOMC day. Then it was going up for a week-long period. We can see that on average, gold price was 0.51% higher 10 days after the FOMC Statement announcement.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for today:

Friday, September 24

  • 4:00 a.m. Eurozone – German ifo Business Climate
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Fed Chair Powell Speech, New Home Sales

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor.

By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 24, 2021

The Euro is hovering slightly below a one-week high on Friday as investors moved back into the U.S. Dollar amid renewed concerns over the finances of property developer China Evergrande Group.

Today’s move follows a strong rebound rally by the common currency on Thursday that was fueled as the safe-haven dollar fell after Beijing injected new cash into the financial system, when Evergrande announced it would make interest payments on an onshore bond.

However, investors initiated a new round of safe-haven buying after some holders of its offshore bonds said they had not received coupon payments by a Thursday deadline. Traders also expressed concerns over additional dollar bond interest payments due next week.

At 11:09 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1734, down 0.0006 or -0.05%.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1755 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1683 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is 1.1755 to 1.1683. The EUR/USD is currently holding slightly above it pivot at 1.1719, making it new support.

The short-term range is 1.1664 to 1.1909. Its retracement zone at 1.1758 to 1.1787 is potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 1.1719.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1719 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 1.1755 – 1.1758. Overtaking this area could extend the rally into 1.1787.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1719 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 1.1683 a potential target, followed by the August 20 main bottom at 1.1664.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.1750 Stays Strong

U.S. Dollar Tries To Rebound Against Euro

EUR/USD faced resistance at 1.1750 and pulled back while the U.S. dollar gained some ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently managed to get back above the resistance at 93.10 and is trying to develop additional upside momentum. In case this attempt is successful, it will head towards the next resistance at 93.40 which will be bearish for EUR/USD.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will focus on Ifo Business Climate report from Germany. The report is expected to show that Business Climate declined from 99.4 in August to 98.9 in September. In the U.S., New Home Sales are projected to increase by 0.5% month-over-month in August.

It should be noted that Treasury yields have moved to multi-week highs, which may provide additional support to the U.S. dollar, although it remains to be seen whether traders are ready for big moves ahead of the weekend.

Technical Analysis

eur usd september 24 2021

EUR/USD has recently made another attempt to settle above the resistance level at 1.1750 but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum and pulled back. This resistance level has already been tested many times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength.

In case EUR/USD manages to settle above 1.1750, it will gain additional upside momentum and get to the test of the next resistance level which is located at the 20 EMA at 1.1765. A successful test of the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.1765 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.1775. If EUR/USD gets above this level, it will move towards the resistance at the 50 EMA at 1.1795.

On the support side, the nearest support level for EUR/USD is located at 1.1720. If EUR/USD declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 1.1690. A move below this level will push EUR/USD towards the support at 1.1660. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the support at 1.1660, it will head towards 1.1630.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over $1757.40, Weakens Under $1738.60

Gold futures are edging higher early Friday on short-covering ahead of the weekend, one-day after the market posted a more than 1% decline. Despite the early strength, the market is still poised to finish lower for the week.

Safe-haven buyers who took positions earlier in the week on concerns over China Evergrande’s debt woes dumped gold as worries over the company’s imminent default eased.

At 06:16 GMT, December Comex gold settled at $1755.50, up $5.70 or +0.33%.

Today’s early rebound reflects the two-sided action in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar. The direction gold the rest of the session on Friday will be driven primarily by the movement in yields and to a lesser extent by the U.S. Dollar.

I don’t anticipate any major movement to the upside, however, because of the hawkish tone by the Federal Reserve earlier in the week.

Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1737.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $1788.40.

The short-term range is $1677.90 to $1836.90. The market is currently trading inside its retracement zone at $1757.40 to $1738.60.

On the downside, the major support is a Fibonacci level at $1716.00. On the upside, the major resistance is a pair of 50% levels at $1795.00 to $1800.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December Comex gold futures contract on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1757.40.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1757.40 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into a main top at $1788.40, and a pair of 50% levels at $1795.00 and $1800.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1757.40 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into a support cluster at $1738.60 to $1737.50.

Taking out $1737.50 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the major Fibonacci level at $1716.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – British Pound Is Mostly Flat Ahead Of The Weekend

U.S. Dollar Stabilized After Yesterday’s Sell-Off

GBP/USD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at 1.3710 while the U.S. dollar is gaining some ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to settle back above the resistance at 93.10. In case this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next resistance level at 93.40 which will be bearish for GBP/USD.

Yesterday, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged and maintained the current program of asset purchases. UK Manufacturing PMI declined from 60.3 in August to 56.3 in September compared to analyst consensus of 59. UK Services PMI decreased from 55 to 54.6 while analysts expected that it would remain unchanged at 55.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will have a chance to take a look at New Home Sales report from U.S. Analysts expect that New Home Sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month in August after growing by 1% in July.

Traders will also keep an eye on the developments in U.S. government bond markets as Treasury yields have recently moved to multi-week highs. Currently, the yield of 10-year Treasuries is trying to settle above 1.45%. In case this attempt is successful, it will move towards the 1.50% level which will be bullish for the American currency.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd september 24 2021

GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3710. In case GBP/USD manages to settle above this level, it will get to another test of the next resistance which is located at the 20 EMA at 1.3750.

A move above the 50 EMA will push GBP/USD towards the resistance at the 50 EMA at 1.3785. If GBP/USD gets above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3800.

On the support side, a move below 1.3710 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.3690. In case GBP/USD manages to settle back below this level, it will move towards the support at 1.3665. A successful test of the support at 1.3665 will push GBP/USD towards the support at 1.3635.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Strong Over 34655, Weak Under 34431

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower in the pre-market session on Friday, one day after posting a more than 1% gain. The price action suggests the move was fueled by value-seeking buyers who may have been expressing relief about the Federal Reserve’s stance on tapering stimulus and raising interest rates.

At 05:35 GMT, December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34621, down 23 or -0.07%.

Investors also returned to the market as concerns eased further over a potential default by Chinese property developer Evergrande even as Reuters reported that some holders of the firm’s dollar bonds had given up hope of getting a coupon payment by a key Thursday deadline.

In stock related news, shares of IT services provider Salesforce finished up 7.21% and the company was a big boost to the Dow during the session after it raised its annual earnings forecast.

Daily December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 33478 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 35383 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 34826 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 32835 to 35429. Its retracement zone at 34132 to 33826 is a potential support area.

The short-term range is 35383 to 33478. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at 34431 to 34655. Trader reaction to this zone will determined the near-term direction of the E-mini Dow.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34655.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34655 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the minor top at 34826 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside. This could extend the rally into a pair of minor tops at 34907 and 35076. The latter is the last potential resistance before the main top at 35383 and the record high at 35429.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34655 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the 50% level at 34431.

We could see a technical bounce on the first test of 34431, but if it fails then we could see a retest of the main retracement zone at 34132 to 33826.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data and Central Bank Chatter Put the EUR and the Dollar in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action this morning.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Trade figures were in focus in the early hours.

In August, New Zealand’s trade deficit widened from NZ$397m to NZ$2,144m. Year-on-year, the deficit widened from NZ$1,100m to NZ$2,940m.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Imports rose by NZ$1.08bn, compared with August 2020, leading to a record monthly trade deficit.
  • Exports were little changed, falling by NZ$42m.
  • Vehicles, parts, & accessories imports were up NZ$415m, with mechanical machinery & equipment up NZ$223m.
  • Petroleum & petrol product imports increased by NZ$207m.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70713 to $0.70704 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.11% to $0.7077.

For the Japanese Yen

In August, core consumer prices remained unchanged in August, year-on-year, which was in line with forecasts. Core consumer prices had fallen by 0.2%, year-on-year, in July.

Of greater significance were prelim private sector PMIs.

In September, the Services PMI rose from 43.5 to 47.4, while the Manufacturing PMI declined from 52.7 to 51.2.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥110.402 to ¥110.408 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥109.380 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.23% to $0.7312.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a quieter day ahead on the economic calendar. Business sentiment figures for Germany will be in focus in the early part of the European session.

Following the disappointing PMI numbers from Thursday, a larger than expected decline would test support for the EUR.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.1747.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

Following the BoE’s more hawkish stance on Thursday, risk sentiment would need to deteriorate to weaken the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.12% to $1.3736.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead. Key stats include new home sales figures, which should have a muted impact on the Dollar.

FED Chair Powell and other FOMC member are scheduled to speak later in the day, however, and could move the dial.

At the time of writing, the U.S Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to $93.063.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead for the Loonie. There are no material stats due out of Canada later today.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.08% to C$1.2645 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – September 24th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 3.01% on Thursday. Following a 6.94% rally on Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $44,884.7.

A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning intraday low $43,102.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $41,450, Bitcoin rallied to a late intraday high $45,000.0.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $44,849 to end the day at $44,880 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest return to sub-$40,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Thursday.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.93%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.24%) bucked the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors.

Chainlink rose by 4.12% to lead the way, with Cardano’s ADA (+3.07%), Ethereum (+2.48%), and Polkadot (+2.65%) close behind.

Binance Coin (+1.25%), Crypto.com Coin (+0.55%), and Litecoin (+1.53%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $2,136bn before sliding to a Tuesday low $1,744bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,043bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 42.97% before falling to a Thursday low 41.07%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 41.46%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.21% to $44,978.9. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $44,738.0 before rising to a high $44,993.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin led the way, rising by 2.39%, with Litecoin up by 1.10%.

Binance Coin (+0.37%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+0.12%), and Cardano’s ADA (+0.51%) also found early support.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Polkadot was down by 0.47% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 240921 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid the $44,329 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $45,555 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $45,500 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $48,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $46,227.

A fall through the $44,329 pivot would bring the first major support level at $43,658 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$43,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $42,431.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – September 24th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 2.48% on Thursday. Following a 11.31% rally on Wednesday, Ethereum ended the day at $3,154.62.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $3,035.83 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,848, Ethereum rose to a late afternoon intraday high $3,182.34.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3,200, however, Ethereum eased back to end the day at $3,150 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.11% to $3,158.16. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $3,146.08 before rising to a high $3,159.43.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 240921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $3,124 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $3,213 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Thursday’s high $3,182.34.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,271.

A fall through the $3,124 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3,066 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$3,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,978.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3,066

Pivot Level: $3,124

First Major Resistance Level: $3,213

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 1.53% on Thursday. Following an 8.69% gain on Wednesday, Litecoin ended the day at $163.92.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a late morning intraday low $157.26 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $151, Litecoin rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $165.00.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $167, however, Litecoin eased back to end the day at $163 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 1.27% to $166.00. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise from an early morning low $163.82 to a high $166.21.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 240921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $162 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $167 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from $166 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin could test the second major resistance level at $170.

A fall through the $162 pivot would bring the first major support level at $159 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$150. The second major support level at $154 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $159

Pivot Level: $162

First Major Resistance Level: $167

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 0.24% on Thursday. Following a 14.84% surge on Wednesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.00164.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.01611 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.0509, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late morning intraday low $0.96828.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.9111, Ripple’s XRP found support to end the day at $1.00 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.31% to $0.99854. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $1.00194 to a low $0.99811.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 240921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to avoid the $0.9953 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $1.0224 into play.

Support would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $1.02 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.0432.

A fall through $0.9953 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.9746 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should avoid the second major support level at $0.9475.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.9746

Pivot Level: $0.9953

First Major resistance Level: $1.0224

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Bullish Risk-on Market Sentiment and a More Hawkish Fed Take Gold Prices Lower

The first punch occurred yesterday as the Federal Reserve concluded its September FOMC meeting in which revealed a more hawkish demeanor. They penciled in the potential for one rate hike in 2022, which was absent from the last interest rate projection or dot plot. As expected, they did not announce a date on which tapering would begin nor the rate at which they would taper their monthly asset purchases. However, many analysts correctly predicted that there would not be a concrete announcement of a taper timeline and start date until November, with the earliest starting date December of this year or the first quarter of next year.

Reaction to the FOMC meeting in U.S. equities was the polar opposite of the effect it had on the safe-haven asset gold. In the case of U.S. equities, they were able to focus upon the strong retail sales numbers that were reported earlier this month. Forecasts by economists polled on consumer spending predicted that there would be a decline of 0.8%, while another poll indicated that there would be a decline of 1.8%. In this case, the analysts underestimated pent-up consumer demand, which resulted in consumers increasing their retail spending by +0.8%. However, if you stripped out automobile sales from the report by the U.S. Census Bureau, the actual increase would have been + 1.8%.

Strong consumer spending might have been a catalyst taking U.S. equities dramatically higher with the Dow Jones industrial average gaining 500 points on the day and closing at 34,764.82, a gain of 1.48%. The NASDAQ composite gained 1.04% and closed at 15,052.2438. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.21% and closed at 4448.98.

gold daily

While equities traders seemed unfazed by a more hawkish monetary policy going forward, the same cannot be said for either the U.S. dollar or gold which both traded lower on the day. Gold futures basis the most active December 2021 Comex contract lost $36 and closed at $1742.80 in New York. Concurrently the dollar index gave up 0.38% and closed at 93.105. Silver also sustained a drawdown, losing 1.69% on the day with the most active December contract settling at $22.52.

silver 923

In the case of gold and silver, it seemed as though market participants disregarded the upcoming vote on Monday of next week to raise the debt ceiling. There are tremendous implications if they are unable to come to a bipartisan agreement. This could cause the government to shut down some essential services and also create issues concerning the United States servicing interest payments on its debt.

The Fed did leave rates vis-à-vis the Fed funds rate between zero and 25 basis points, but they also moved the timeline up for liftoff.

Inflationary projections by the Federal Reserve are now anticipating the potential for a more sustained level of inflation which could be the underlying data that the Federal Reserve used to pencil in a rate hike next year which was a defined shift from their former monetary policy in regards to lifting off to normalize rates.

gold weekly

For those who would like more information, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

 

European Equities: German Business Sentiment and FED Chair Powell in Focus

Economic Calendar

Friday, 24th September

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)

The Majors

It was another bullish day for the European majors on Thursday, with the majors logging a 3rd consecutive day in the green.

The CAC40 rose by 0.98% to lead the way once more, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 rising by 0.88% and 0.90% respectively.

Market reaction to the FOMC projections from overnight on Wednesday provided support, offsetting disappointing private sector PMI numbers.

Easing concerns over an Evergrande default added further support to the majors on the day.

The Stats

It’s a was a particularly busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Prelim private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone were in focus.

In September, the French Manufacturing PMI fell from 57.5 to 55.2, with the Services PMI down from 56.3 to 56.0.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI declined from 62.6 to 58.5, with the Services PMI falling from 60.8 to 56.0.

As a result, the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 61.4 to 58.7, and the Services PMI down from 59.0 to 56.3.

According to the Eurozone’s September Composite survey,

  • Business activity grew at a markedly reduced rate, reflecting the peaking of demand in Q3, supply chain bottlenecks, and lingering concerns over the pandemic.
  • Increased concerns over the Delta variant hit business expectations.
  • As a result, the rate of job creation moderated further from July’s 21-year peak.
  • Costs rose at the fastest pace in 21-years, however, as demand continued to outstrip supply.
  • New export order growth slowed to its lowest level since February, cooling sharply in the manufacturing sector.

From the U.S

Economic data included the weekly jobless claims and prelim private sector PMI numbers.

In the week ending 17th September, initial jobless claims increased from 335k to 351k. Economists had forecast a fall to 320k.

From the private sector, a slowdown in growth was more modest than seen across the Eurozone.

The Manufacturing PMI slipped from 61.1 to 60.5, with the Services PMI declining from 55.1 to 54.4. As a result, the Composite PMI fell from 55.4 to 54.5. Economists had forecast an increase to 59.5.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Thursday. BMW slipped by 0.07% to buck the trend on the day. Continental rallied by 2.66% to lead the way, however, with Daimler ending the day up by 1.55%. Volkswagen rose by a more modest 1.05%.

It was a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank saw gains of 1.67% and 2.33% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. Soc Gen and Credit Agricole rallied by 2.58% and by 2.65% respectively, with BNP Paribas up by 2.26%.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day up by 1.93% and by 2.83% respectively.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE saw modest gains of 0.49% and 0.73% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 3rd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Thursday.

Following a 14.33% slide from Wednesday, the VIX fell by 10.73% to end the day at 18.63.

The NASDAQ rose by 1.04%, with the Dow and S&P500 ending the day up by 1.48% and by 1.21% respectively.

VIX 230921 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a quieter day ahead on the Eurozone’s economic calendar.

From the Eurozone, Germany’s IFO Business Climate figures will be in focus. Following disappointing PMI numbers from Thursday, we can expect today’s figures to influence.

From the U.S, it’s also a quieter day ahead, with economic data limited to housing sector numbers. While the stats should have a muted impact on the majors, FED Chair Powell is scheduled to speak later in the day. Expect any chatter on the economy or monetary policy to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, Evergrande will continue to be an area of interest.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 27 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

September 24th 2021: EUR/USD Prime Resistance Calling for Attention at $1.1767-1.1776

Charts: Trading View

EUR/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Technical elements on the weekly timeframe reveal EUR/USD has been somewhat stationary since mid-June. Deserving attention, however, is prime support at $1.1473-1.1583, a long-term base sharing chart space with a 100% Fib projection at $1.1613 and 1.27% Fib extension at $1.1550. Note the 100% value represents a harmonic AB=CD bullish point, which brings a 1.13 BC Fibonacci extension also to table at $1.1623.

Also technically interesting on the weekly scale is the possibility of long-term sell-stops residing south of late September lows at $1.1612 (2020).

In addition, we see trend on the weekly chart has largely been bullish since early 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Quasimodo support at $1.1689 welcomed healthy buying on Thursday, clipping a portion of early-week losses.

Sustained interest to the upside on this timeframe seats $1.1900ish resistance in sight. The opening above $1.1900 shines light on prime resistance at $1.2115-1.1990 and the 200-day simple moving average at $1.1981.

Failure to command a bullish position above $1.1689 swings the technical pendulum in favour of eventually reaching Fibonacci support between $1.1420 and $1.1522 (glued to the lower side of the weekly timeframe’s prime support at $1.1473-1.1583).

Momentum studies, according to the relative strength index (RSI), shows the value moving in on the 50.00 centreline. Reclaiming 50.00+ indicates positive momentum: average gains exceeding average losses.

H4 timeframe:

The $1.1690-1.1705 decision point had its lower boundary clipped late US hours Wednesday—a direct response to the latest FOMC policy meeting. Sell-stops beneath $1.1690-1.1705 potentially helped fuel recovery gains that, in recent hours, hauled the pair above resistance at $1.1742, a previous Quasimodo support base.

Quasimodo resistance at $1.1771, therefore, demands attention.

H1 timeframe:

For those who read Thursday’s technical briefing you may recall the following (italics):

$1.1742 commanding position could swing the pendulum in favour of a test of $1.17 on the H1. And by testing the psychological level, a whipsaw south to daily Quasimodo support at $1.1689 is a potential scenario to have noted on the technical watchlist. $1.1689 bids feeding off sell-stops below $1.17 might be enough to chalk up a bullish wave.

As evident from the daily and H1 charts, the above came to fruition, aided by USD downside (DXY 0.5 percent). Not only that, additional sell-stops were tripped under the H4 timeframe’s decision point at $1.1690-1.1705.

Going forward, technical eyes are likely on prime resistance coming in at $1.1767-1.1776 on the H1, joined by supply at $1.1762-1.1774 and H4 Quasimodo resistance mentioned above at $1.1771. Interestingly, meaty stops are perhaps located a touch above the Fed-induced high at $1.1755, liquidity that may excite sellers from $1.1767-1.1776/$1.1762-1.1774 on the H1.

Observed Technical Levels:

Short-term flow is geared towards a whipsaw above Wednesday’s high at $1.1755, a move perhaps drawing sellers into the market from $1.1767-1.1776/$1.1762-1.1774 on the H1. Focus, however, is directed to $1.1767-1.1776, as this area houses H4 Quasimodo resistance from $1.1771.

$1.1767-1.1776 sellers will likely adhere to strict trade management, as daily buyers off Quasimodo support from $1.1689 could take aim at higher levels.

AUD/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

The weekly timeframe has the currency pair retesting prime support at $0.6968-0.7242.

Since printing a two-week recovery in late August, however, the unit has been fighting to entice fresh bullish interest.

Failure to command position from $0.6968-0.7242 opens up support at $0.6673. Buyers regaining consciousness, nevertheless, has prime resistance at $0.7849-0.7599 to target.

Trend studies on the weekly scale show we’ve been higher since early 2020. Consequently, the response from $0.6968-0.7242 could STILL be the beginnings of a dip-buying attempt to merge with the current trend.

Daily timeframe:

From the daily chart, attention is concentrated on Fibonacci support at $0.7057-0.7126 and prime resistance at $0.7506-0.7474.

Outside of the aforementioned areas is a Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $0.7621 and the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7596. Nearby we also note a 100% Fibonacci projection at $0.7604, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7585 and a 1.618% Fibonacci extension at $0.7644.

To the downside, support also falls in around $0.7021.

Those who follow the relative strength index (RSI) will acknowledge the indicator zeroing in on the 50.00 centreline, coming from below. Moving above the latter signals momentum is to the upside.

H4 timeframe:

Upbeat market sentiment and the US dollar index registering losses witnessed AUD/USD climb resistance at $0.7281 on Thursday, leaving the $0.7200-0.7218 decision point unchallenged.

Resistance drawn from $0.7317 entered the fray in recent hours, a level boasting historical significance. Should we overthrow current resistance and (potentially weak) supply, touching gloves with a decision point at $0.7395-0.7410 may be in the offing.

H1 timeframe:

Thursday saw bulls take on $0.73 and hold the level as support, a move shifting resistance at $0.7322 in the headlights. Although the said resistance is a potential headwind for the currency pair, buy-stops above the level might fuel an assault on Quasimodo resistance at $0.7339. This is a short-term level, therefore, that has the capacity to entice sellers.

Failure to contain buyers, continuation moves could shape in the direction of prime resistance from $0.7401-0.7379.

Observed Technical Levels:

Having recently observed H1 action break/retest the $0.73 figure to the upside, and understanding price is showing signs of bullish life from weekly prime support at $0.6968-0.7242, H4 resistance at $0.7281 is unlikely to deliver much to write home about.

With that being said, buyers may remain in the driving seat today, taking on the noted H4 resistance as well as H1 resistance from $0.7322 and Quasimodo resistance at $0.7339 to target H1 prime resistance at $0.7401-0.7379. Although do note that $0.7339 is well placed to welcome a short-term bearish pop.

USD/JPY:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

¥108.40-109.41 demand recently welcomed a bullish ripple. Yet, before getting too enthusiastic, this area has failed to ignite buyers since mid-July.

Nevertheless, recognising the area derives additional backing from neighbouring descending resistance-turned support, extended from the high ¥118.61, an advance may eventually emerge to familiar supply at ¥113.81-112.22.

Daily timeframe:

The uninspiring vibe out of weekly demand is demonstrated by way of a consolidation on the daily timeframe between prime support at ¥108.96-109.34 and resistance from ¥110.86-110.27.

Range resistance—thanks to surging US Treasury yields—acknowledged price action on Thursday, which if a break comes to pass brings light to neighbouring Quasimodo resistance at ¥111.11.

Based on the relative strength index (RSI), the value remains confined in similar fashion to current price movement, between 40.87 and 56.85. Technicians will recognise the indicator tests the mettle of the upper range limit, as we write.

H4 timeframe:

Thursday’s continuation rally arranged a decision point at ¥109.76-109.98, and manoeuvred price to within a stone’s throw from two Quasimodo resistances at ¥110.48 and ¥110.42. The aforesaid levels also work with a 1.272% Fibonacci extension at ¥110.37 and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at ¥110.44.

Note the H4 Quasimodo levels and associated Fibonacci structure resides within the daily timeframe’s range resistance at ¥110.86-110.27.

H1 timeframe:

A closer examination of price action has the H1 candles closing in on Quasimodo resistance at ¥110.32, which happens to align closely with channel resistance, etched from the high ¥109.90. A response from noted structure could turn price towards support at ¥110.11, a previous Quasimodo resistance base.

¥110.32 interest are urged to pencil in the possibility of a whipsaw higher to take in willing sellers around H4 resistance between ¥110.48 and ¥110.37. Notice that a pop higher will also trip any stops located above ¥110.32, perhaps delivering enough liquidity to persuade heavier selling interest.

Observed Technical Levels:

Short-term focus directs emphasis towards Quasimodo resistance at ¥110.32 on the H1, and adjoining channel resistance. However, as referred to in the above text, a pop higher to bring in any H4 seller interest around resistance at ¥110.48-110.37 could also be on the cards before sellers attempt to put in an appearance.

In conjunction with lower timeframe resistances, the daily timeframe’s range resistance is also currently in play at ¥110.86-110.27, alongside the chart’s RSI indicator also displaying range resistance.

The only caveat to the above, of course, is weekly demand coming in at ¥108.40-109.41, albeit an area that’s been unable to inspire much bullish activity of late.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Drops on Soft Claims Data

 

The dollar eased as U.S. Treasury yields declined in the wake of the softer than expected Jobless Claims. The Fed also kept monetary policy unchanged and said if the recovery in the United States continued to remain on track, they would consider removing some accommodation. Additionally, the PMI composite reported by IHS Market showed weaker than expected manufacturing and services.

Technical Analysis

The dollar eased against the Loonie for a second consecutive trading session following the Fed Decision. The exchange rate sliced through support which is now resistant near the 10-day moving average at 1.2713 and is poised to test targets support near the 50-day moving average at 1.2613. The exchange moved from the overbought territory as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a rising trajectory which points to a higher exchange rate.

Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected

Initial claims for the week ended September 18 totaled 351,000, an increase from the previous week’s upwardly revised 335,000 and above expectations of 320,000. The total was the highest since the week of August 21. Continuing claims data, which runs a week behind, also increased, rising 181,000 to total more than 2.84 million.

Silver Price Prediction – Prices Edge Higher on Soft PMI Data

Silver prices edged higher, forming in inside day, which is a sign of indecision. The selloff in the greenback did not help the silver prices gain traction. U.S. Yields moved lower in the wake of the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday and softer than expected Jobless claims were released by the Labor Department on Thursday.  PMI data released by IHS Markit showed a pullback in September in Manufacturing and Services.

[fx-broker slug=fxtm]

Technical analysis

Silver prices edged but formed an inside day. Prices are poised to test resistance near the 10-day moving average at $23.06. Target support is seen near the September lows at 22.03. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term positive momentum is decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

The first look at national PMI data from IHS Markit was reported on Thursday. The September manufacturing PMI came in at 60.5, a 5-month low versus 55.1 reported in August. The services PMI also dropped, hitting a 14-month low at 54.44 versus 55.1 in August. The total September composite PMI was 54.5, which was a 1-year low versus 55.4 in August.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strong Over 15360.50, Weak Under 15254.75

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures rallied for third day as fears around a crisis in China’s property eased somewhat and as the Federal Reserve kept current monetary stimulus in place for just a little bit longer. Thursday’s gain also pushed the technology-driven index higher for the week.

At 20:18 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 15314.50, up 151.00 or +1.00%.

In stock related news, Marriott International Inc rose 3.82%. Moderna Inc was up 3.15% and Booking Holdings Inc jumped 2.88%.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 14699.00 will change the main trend to down. A move through 15702.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A move through 15532.50 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 13450.00 to 15702.25. Its retracement zone at 14576.25 is the major support.

The short-term range is 14437.00 to 15702.25. Its retracement zone at 15069.50 to 14920.25 is additional support. This zone stopped the selling three times this week.

The minor range is 15702.25 to 14807.50. The index is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 15254.75 to 15360.50. Trader reaction to this area will determine the near-term direction.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15254.75 and 15360.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15254.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 15069.50 to 14920.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 15360.50 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor top at 15532.50. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 15702.25 the next major target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.