GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
On Tuesday, the pound strengthened against the dollar with the improvement in the general sentiment which damped demand on the dollar as a refuge after better-than-expected rise in German business confidence and successful bond selling by the Spanish Treasury.

German business confidence unexpectedly advanced for the second month; business climate indicator rose for the second month to 107.2 from 106.6 in November.

The data came after a wave of upbeat data from Germany which provided some hopes amid the mounting worries the euro area debt crisis would drive the euro zone and global economies into another recession.

In Spain, a bond selling witnessed a rise in demand and decline in yield where Spanish government auctioned 5.64 billion euros of short-term debt, above the maximum target of 4.5 billion euros. The yield on the 3-month and 6-month notes fell to 1.735% from 5.110% and 2.435% from 5.227% respectively.

Still, the main focus in the market is on the latest developments in the euro area. On Monday, the talks between European finance ministers resulted in an agreement which included providing the IMF with 150 billon euros to fight the debt crisis, where the loan may increase up to 200 billion euros if euro area outsiders the Czech Republic, Denmark, Poland and Sweden managed to get Parliamentary approval to give loans to the IMF.

Moreover, the pound was given an impetus after the rise inU.K.consumer confidence from 36 in Oct., the lowest record since 2004, to 40 in Nov.

In the U.S., housing starts showed a rise to 685 thousands in Nov. from 627 thousands.

On Wednesday, attention will be toward BoE minutes, due at 09:30 GMT; at the same time, public finance excluding interventions will be due with expectations referring to a deepening deficit to 19.0 billion pounds in Nov. from the prior 6.5 billion pounds.

Thereafter, eyes will be on U.S. MBA mortgage applications for Nov. 18 at 12:00 GMT while will be followed by existing home sales, as of 15:00 GMT,  which are estimated to record 2.2% drop in Nov. compared with a prior of 1.4%.

USD/CHF Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
USD/CHF Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
On Tuesday trading, the franc strengthened against the dollar with the improvement in the general sentiment which damped demand on the dollar as a refuge after better-than-estimated rise in German business confidence and successful bond selling by the Spanish Treasury.   

German business confidence unexpectedly advanced for the second month; business climate indicator rose for the second month to 107.2 from 106.6 in November.

The data came after a wave of upbeat data from Germany which provided some hopes amid the mounting worries the euro area debt crisis would drive the euro zone and global economies into another recession. 

On the other hand, a Spanish bond selling witnessed a rise in demand and decline in yield as the Spanish government auctioned 5.64 billion euros of short-term debt, above the maximum target of 4.5 billion euros. The yield on the 3-month and 6-month notes fell to 1.735% from 5.110% and 2.435% from 5.227% respectively.

Still, the main focus in the market is on the latest developments in the euro area. 

On Monday, the four-hour talks between European finance ministers yielded in an agreement which include providing the IMF with 150 billon euros to fight the debt crisis, where the loan may increase up to 200 billion euros if euro area outsiders the Czech Republic, Denmark, Poland and Sweden managed to get Parliamentary approval to give loans to the IMF.

Moreover, the Swiss franc advanced also after the release of upbeat trade data which showed that the Swiss trade surplus widened to 3.00 billion francs in Nov. compared with the prior surplus of 2.15 billion francs. Exports, however, dropped 6.8% from the prior 0.9% rise while imports fell 7.7% from the 1.7% advance a month earlier.

In the U.S., housing starts showed a rise to 685 thousands in Nov. from 627 thousands.

On Wednesday, the Swiss economy will start the day with the release money supply M3 for the year ending Nov. at 08:00 GMT. 

Thereafter, eyes will be on U.S. MBA mortgage applications for Nov. 18 at 12:00 GMT while will be followed by existing home sales, as of 15:00 GMT,  which are estimated to record 2.2% drop in Nov. compared with a prior of 1.4%.

Are the Ministers of the EU Countries Con Men and Scammers

I normally do not write commentary or opinions or even in the first person, but today, I was reading the Wall Street Journal and came across a story on how euro nations are going to try to prop up their banks.

I was totally amazed at what is being suggested. It is like a terrible con game, a fraud. Politicians and Government Officials along with Bankers have concocted a huge network of deceit and fabrication to circumvent the legal requirement of the International Monetary Fund. Does this mean that individuals and businesses can bend the rules, break the laws and use fraud and deceit in times of crisis?

There are a lot of convicted felons we should be releasing from prison if this is the case.

This chart looks like a giant scam or it is a Ponzi scheme or one of those other schemes that con men and scammers give great names to.

This is not a way to solve debt crisis or financial crisis, it is simply a way to move it from column A to column B. Ah, and maybe that is it, Chinese checkers.

The Italian government is encouraging banks to buy public properties that the banks then can use to borrow money. As part of a broader deficit-reduction program in Portugal, the government essentially is borrowing money from bank pension funds and could use some of the funds to help state-owned companies repay bank loans. Perhaps they should ask the mafia for assistance.

Maybe the EU should contact the drug cartels of South American and ask for a loan.

It is not only the Italians, it so the cash strapped governments throughout the EU.

Governments in Germany and Spain also are using unorthodox measures to support their ailing banks.

“Most of these backdoor-type schemes seem to be limited in size and don’t address the broader problem,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

If the EU cannot resolve their own problems or at least develop a plan to do so, why should the other nations of the world allow this type of behavior? In this case, I am in full support if the US uses their veto and pressures the IMF to avoid these type situations. The ECM, the IMF and the Finance Ministers of the World need to exert pressure on the leaders of the EU to come up with a definitive plan of action.

Each day we hear promises that fail to materialize. The Sarkozy-Merkel fiscal pact is in trouble. The Emergency Fund is unable to raise the funds that are needed. The promises of the EU Council, The EU Parliament and the EU Leaders seem to go up in smoke.

It seems that it is alright to bend the rules during times of crisis. The reason, governments, banks, funds, agencies develop rules and policies are to prevent them from acting improperly during times of need or crisis.

Commerzbank AG is negotiating with the finance ministry to transfer its troubled real-estate finance unit into a government “bad” bank. The bank and government are in talks about ways to structure the deal so it isn’t “considered” a bailout, possibly by protecting the government against some losses or paying the government a nominal fee, according to people familiar with the matter. I ask you is this correct, finding technical ways to hide the truth.

The Portuguese government is devising a complicated financial maneuver that could give the country’s banks The government just closed a plan to transfer banks’ future pension responsibilities to the state balance sheet in exchange for €6 billion in assets, which include cash, stocks and bonds. Most of the money will help the government meet deficit targets.

But about €2 billion may be shifted to struggling government-owned companies, such as transport providers. Under the plan, these companies would use the funds to pay off debts to Portugal’s banks.

“The move will allow debt repayments to public entities, contributing to a cut in loan-to-deposit ratios of Portuguese banks and helping the financing of the economy,” Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar told parliament recently.

Instead of raising more money through a Spanish government bailout fund, a central-bank spokesman said that tapping the deposit-insurance plan would leave the country’s budget goals this year intact. The deposit-guarantee fund will be refilled early next year, and the government will provide a back-stop in the meantime.

This just sounds like shift debt from place to place and hiding it away. We use to call it borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. I always thought it was illegal, it is most definitely unethical and it sure doesn’t solve any problems.

Markets Rebounding on German Data and Easing Fears Over North Korea

Risk appetite improved among traders after a strong Spanish bond sale, a better than expected business confidence in Germany and the easing fears over North Korea, giving support to the higher yielding assets which limited de4mand on the safe haven USD.

Asian stocks recover some of the losses today following the sell-off witnessed yesterday on news North Korean leader Kim Jong il died, fueling fears from a regional instability, with the MSCI Asian Pacific Index rose 0.2%.

Confidence improved since this morning as theUSis expected to release stronger data from the housing sector, whileAustralia’s central bank said through its minutes that despite Europe’s crisis its trading partners are still expanding which is supporting growth domestically.

Yet the biggest upside support to confidence was given today by the strong demand on Spanish bonds which pushed the yields on 6-month bills to 2.435% from 5.227%, and the yields on 3-month bills to 1.735% from 5.11% in Nov. InGermany, Dec.’s business confidence rose to 107.2 from 106.00 expected.

Sentiment however may remain fragile on continued fears over Europe’s debt crisis since ECB’s President Mario Draghi made no hints of buying bonds in a speech to the European Parliament yesterday, yet he confirmed that downside risks to the economy will persist.

In Europe stocks found support from Germany’s Ifo business confidence report, where DAX rose 0.73% while CAC 40 gained 0.87%, while the euro gained visibly as risk appetite widened, trading around the 1.3085, dragging the pound higher to trade as of this writing around the 1.5625 level.

The USD is trading with bearish momentum around the 79.85 level, while the yen is almost unchanged around the 77.95. As demand on safe haven eased, the AUD gained trading around the 0.9995 as of this writing.

As markets overshadowed the concerns over the euro zone debt crisis and the USD experienced losses, commodities are enjoying some gains where gold is trading around the $1605.70 level from the opening at $1593.62, while oil is trading around the $93.85 per barrel level.

USD/JPY Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair opened the day with a downside move where risk aversion retreated over the Korean outlook pushing the Asian stocks to rise and the yen to recover earlier losses versus the dollar.

The BOJ will release its final interest rate decision for 2011, where the BOJ intervention remains an option since FX market with the yen still gaining grounds as a safe haven.

On Wednesday at 23:50 GMT (Tuesday), Japan will issue Merchandise Trade Balance Total for November, where it’s expected to show a deficit of 442.4 billion yen widening from the deficit of 273.8 billion.

The Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance had a prior reading of –457.9 billion yen, and expected to narrow to -292.8 billion.

At 04:00 GMT, the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision regarding where the central bank is expected to keep the interest rate steady at 0.10%.

The U.S. economy will release the Existing Home Sales for November at 15:00 GMT and it’s expected to advance 2.4% to 5.09 million from 4.97 million.

NZD/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

NZD/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
NZD/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
The NZD/USD pair soared early Tuesday on the back of the strong Australian dollar after the RBA minutes came less dovish than expected. The New Zealand dollar was able to record gains against the greenback despite the uncertainty over the global economic outlook.

On the other hand, the Kiwi advanced before the release of GDP numbers during the week, where it’s expected that the New Zealand economy will grow more than expected supported by the recovery in domestic demand.

On Wednesday at 21:45 GMT (Tuesday), New Zealand will issue the Current Account Balance for the third quarter, where the previous reading showed a deficit of NZ$0.921 billion.

The U.S. economy will release the Existing Home Sales for November at 15:00 GMT and it’s expected to advance 2.4% to 5.09 million from 4.97 million.

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 21, 2011, Fundamental Analysis
The AUD/USD pair advanced early Tuesday as the RBA’s December meeting minutes supported the Aussie and opened the way for more gains for the pair.

The minutes were less dovish than expected which cut expectations of another rate cut during the next meeting, supporting the Australian dollar got supported to cover some of its previous losses against the dollar.

The Reserve Bank of Australia showed that the global economy is still growing despite the current EU crisis, while eased worries over the outlook for Korea supported Asian stocks to cover its prior losses and accordingly buoyed Aussie’s gains.

On Wednesday at 23:30 GMT (Tuesday), Australia will release the Westpac Leading Index for October, where the previous reading was down by 0.3%.

The U.S. economy will release the Existing Home Sales for November at 15:00 GMT and it’s expected to advance 2.4% to 5.09 million from 4.97 million.

News From the ECB Moves Markets

If ever you wanted to see how important fundamental analysis is to understanding the forex markets and building a trading strategy yesterdays comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi dismissed the idea that the euro currency could break up, as he stated it was “irreversible “even as the ECB issued a report about the rising contagion risks posed by the sovereign debt crisis.

The markets and investors are edgy and every comment, press release, statement and rumor is affecting the markets.

Let’s follow the comments yesterday, as Mario Draghi made various different statements, speeches and comments during the day

Draghi, appearing before the European Parliament, said that the next year will be a painful one for European banks and the overall economy. But he said it was simply “morbid speculation” to talk about the demise of the euro.

“I have no doubt whatsoever about the strength of the euro, about its permanence, about its irreversibility,” he said. “The one currency is irreversible.”

The euro rose up 0.2% versus the dollar in trading Monday following the remarks.

In a later interview with the Financial Times, Draghi cautioned that euro-zone nations that depart the euro-area bloc would face severe economic difficulties, including high inflation. He also said that such nations would still need to pursue structural reforms.

This statement surprised the market as it seems to contradict his earlier statement in regards to the irreversibility of the euro stating it was “morbid speculation”

Investors are now asking which countries might leave the euro.

Another statement yesterday that surprised the markets was Draghi’s comments and rebuff of the possible downgrade of France’s debt.  “France losing its Triple-A debt rating shouldn’t be a “terrible thing” but that if France were downgraded, other nations likely would be as well.”I don’t know if France will lose its Triple-A. I hope not,” he said in response to a question of whether the nation will be downgraded. He further stated: ratings from the credit agencies are just one factor the ECB uses to assess collateral. Draghi, who again poured cold water on the idea of stepping up the pace of bond purchases, also said the U.S. needs to take structural reforms and said the U.S. labor market may be “too flexible.”

Markets dropped Draghi downplayed expectations that the ECB would be more aggressive in aiding struggling countries by widening its bond purchases, Draghi has reminded us over and over that the banks governing treaty “forbids monetary financing.”

The comments “put more nails in the proverbial coffin of having the European Central Bank step in as the lender of last resort,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

“That’s disappointing to investors who view ECB purchases of debt issued by European countries nearly squeezed out of the bond market as an important tool in ending the sovereign-debt crisis.”

“That’s one solution seemingly removed,” noted Luschini.

Losses increased after a statement from European Union ministers, said euro-currency members had agreed on providing additional bailout funding via the International Monetary Fund, but fell short of the total funding the markets are expecting.


 

EUR/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/USD fell on Monday as the market continues to concern itself with the European debt crisis. The Euro is fairly untouchable at the moment, even if it is sitting right on the 1.30 level, an obvious support area. The market could bounce from this level, but it should only provide the prudent trader with an opportunity to sell from higher levels at this point. The Dollar is simply too strong for the Euro currently. We are selling rallies, and would sell aggressively if the daily chart closes below the 1.29 level.

EUR/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY had a strong day on Monday as the Dollar is being bought up by traders in a bit to run to “safe havens”. The Dollar is without a doubt going to get a bid every time the markets get nervous, and the market being nervous seems to be more often than not. However, the 80 handle has been extremely resistive to even central bank interventions. The pair looks to be building upward pressure, and the triangle that is forming is indeed very bullish. If the triangle gets broken though, the long green candle from the last intervention should be paid attention to as it showed the Bank of Japan and its failure to break above the 80 mark that is so important from a long-term standpoint.

The Japanese Yen is being worked against by its own central bank, and this shows just how attractive the Yen looks to the market as they simply cannot get the markets to move away from it. The economic situation in Japan is starting to weaken a bit, so this could in turn help, but the 80 mark that we mentioned above certainly is what needs to be overtaken to think that any rally can be sustained. Although the triangle looks strong, we prefer letting this pair rise to the 80 level, or at least as close as it can – and then selling aggressively. If we get stopped out, it is because the trend has changed, and we would be willing to take the opposite position as the daily close above 80 would be so massively bullish for this market.

2012 is coming fast, and the volume of trading will dry up the later we get into the week. Because of this, we could see a bit of a spike in this pair, but this should only serve as a chance to sell form higher levels as the longer-term trend continues.

USD/JPY Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

GBP/USD fell during the session on Monday as the markets went into the “risk off” trade. The Pound does enjoy support at the 1.55 level, and the bounce during the later hours of the session on Monday show this by forming a hammer for the daily candle.

The UK is simply far too exposed to the European Union for us to feel comfortable owning it for any real length of time. The Dollar is strong around the markets, and as a result we aren’t very keen to sell it. This means that we will only sell this pair, but the fact that it is sitting on a massive support zone keeps us out of this pair currently. The support area starts at 1.55, and goes down to the 1.53 handle. The area being broken would have serious ramifications for the strength of this pair.

The 1.53 level being closed below on the daily chart would be a breakdown of a massive head and shoulders pattern that measures down to the 1.41 level. The pair is going to face pressure going forward as the headlines out of Europe fail to relieve nerves for traders around the world. The UK banks unfortunately are going to be heavily exposed to the EU debt crisis, and the EU makes up over 30% of British exports. Both of these factors are going to weight on the strength of the UK economy, and by extension – the Pound itself.

The pair has enjoyed a bounce over the last several months, but the downtrend does seem to be continuing. Because of this, we are selling only, and will certainly do so hand over fist if we do get below the 1.53 level. The Pound should continue to suffer at the hands of the buying of US Treasuries, which are presently enjoying some of the largest bid-to-cover ratios in history. The Pound, while still a viable currency overall, is going to play second fiddle to the Dollar for the foreseeable future as the world simply is far too risk-adverse at this point to buy.

GBP/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
GBP/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP fell on Monday as the Euro continues to concern traders as a whole. The market looks very weak, and the recent breakdown below the 0.85 level sends a very bearish tone in this market. The breaking lower of this pair would send it to the 0.80 level, and rallies are simply going to be invitations to sell from higher levels. With all of this in mind, we are selling on a break lower or after rallies as long as we stay under the aforementioned 0.85 level.

EUR/GBP Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/CHF had a very quiet session on Monday as traders are starting to think of holidays, and not so much of economics. The pair continues to find support at the 0.93 level, and this is just below where the market sits presently. The 0.95 level will also be resistive, but only as a minor level in our opinion. The Swiss are working against their own currency, and the Dollar is the safest trade out there, so this should continue to put upward pressure on this pair over time. We are buying dips, but only with the knowledge of it being a slow grind higher, not a straight shot. We won’t sell – the SNB is working against that trade.

USD/CHF Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
USD/CHF Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF fell on Monday as traders continue to run from the Euro in general. The fact that the Swiss National Bank is working against the value of the Franc against the Euro and the pair still falls says plenty about the state of the Euro presently. The volumes are light, but the signal is there – you simply cannot buy this pair at the moment. However, the SNB is going to defend the 1.20 level, and the pair is difficult to trade for anything more than a scalp at this point. Presently, we see so much weakness that we are not willing to buy until we get closer to the SNB-imposed floor in this pair.

EUR/CHF Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

AUD/USD fell hard on Monday as the commodity trade was hit fairly hard. The “risk off” trade came back into vogue during the session, and the afternoon in the US saw an acceleration of this move. The Aussie will often suffer at the hands of a “risk off” trade, and as a result it was no real surprise we saw this pair fall.

The breaking of the lows on Thursday signals a move down to the 0.97 level to fill the gap from a couple of weekends back, and we think this is what happens next. We are selling rallies, and a breakdown to fill the gap for a quick profitable short trade.

AUD/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
AUD/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD had a volatile session on Monday as the market closed in an unchanged manner. The range was somewhat extended, but the more important fact is that the 1.03 level has continued to hold as support. The chart looks bullish, and the oil markets are looking weak. As oil wells off, the Canadian dollar does as well. The 1.05 level looks to be resistance in this pair, and the 1.07 level above it should be as well. The braking of the 1.05 leads to the 1.07, and the breaking of the 1.07 level leads to the 1.10 level. The pair looks ready to rally, but there is a lot of pressure to the downside in this pair, so it will be more of a grind than a run. We buy dips as long as we stay above 1.03 or so. We are not selling until we get below the 0.99 level in this pair.

USD/CAD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

NZD/USD fell on Monday as the commodity trade got hit. The markets sold all risk assets, and the Kiwi is always going to lose in that situation. The NZD/USD is very sensitive to this trade as the Dollar is the ultimate “safe haven” for currency traders.

The 0.75 level below could provide some support, but the gap from a couple of weekends ago still hasn’t been filled. The markets are very headline sensitive as the EU situation suggests that the bad news hasn’t ended. The breakdown of all risk assets should continue, and the low volume that we see in the markets could provide fireworks in the near future as this pair is already less liquid than most of the majors. The pair has us selling rallies, and not buying at all as the headline risks are too great. We like selling also if the gap gets broken below as well, as it would be a massively bearish signal.

NZD/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
NZD/USD Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

Oil Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The CL market had a very quiet session on Monday as the markets took a breather in the energy sectors. The oil markets will continue to be pressured to the downside if the economic numbers out of China continue to show a slowdown in the economic over there, and the situation in the EU also certainly isn’t helping. The market will find a ton of support at $90, but the overall bias is down at this point. We are selling rallies as they appear at this point in time.

Oil Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
Oil Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

Brent

Brent markets have literally stalled over the last three sessions as the $102.50 level is showing signs of either support, or simple selling exhaustion. The market still looks very heavy, and we think the real support isn’t until we get to the $95 level below. With this in mind, we are selling rallies in this market as well.

Natural Gas Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell during the Monday session. The market fell as low as $3.05, and the downtrend continues to pressure the market lower. However, the larger picture has a consolidation from earlier this year between the $5 and $4 levels suggesting a $3 target. The move has been close enough for us, and as a result we are expecting some kind of decent bounce at this point. Also, being so close to the end of the year, there is also a high probability of traders taking profits now that we are at the end of the year.

The traders that have been short of this market have had a massively strong year, and in the overall market – profits like this are hard to give back. Because of this, there is a good chance we see this market rise as a short covering rally should be seen. Either way, the volume will be very light, and this always produces a chance of a super spike in markets like this. The entirety of all of these facts has us concerned about selling, but you cannot buy it based upon what it “might” do.

The natural gas markets still remain a “sell only” market for us as the US has over 14 Trillion Cubic Feet of proven reserves presently that aren’t even out of the ground yet. Because of this, it would take something pretty massive to have the market rise for any length of time. The markets will bounce of course, but as it has been in the past – it will more than likely continue to be so next year. However, as the professional traders all go on holiday for the end of the year, the markets will behave more and more erratically. The higher the market rises in any short covering rally should simply provide better profits being a seller next year.

With all of this in mind, we are sellers of natural gas, but at higher levels and look very forward to seeing this market bounce quite a bit as it will almost undoubtedly produce nice profits in the near future.

Natural Gas Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

Gold Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis

Gold markets rose slightly on Monday as the value investor stepped into the markets after massive losses over the previous week. The $1,550 level has acted as support, and is the center of the entirety of the support zone we have marked from $1,500 to $1,600. The area should be very supportive, and with this long-term uptrend still intact, the market is most likely to bounce from this point. Because of this, we want to buy for a bounce. The real move probably won’t happen until 2012, so we will be quick to move stop losses up to break even if we are profitable. A break below the $1,500 level would be very bearish.

Gold Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis
Gold Forecast December 20, 2011, Technical Analysis