Dax smashed through all resistance reaching 7765. We now face quite tough trend line & short term Fibonacci resistance at 7780/87 but with the daily picture now much more positive, if we can clear 7800 we should see 7835/38 then 7856.
Support seen at 7720 then 7696/91 below could hold a slide. Below here 7658 looks a good buying opportunity with stops below 7640.
The DAX had a phenomenal session during the trading day on Tuesday as the German and the European ZEW numbers came out much better than expected. Because of this, confidence seems to have returned to Europe, and especially Germany. With that in mind, it makes sense that the DAX was one of the strongest markets in the world during the session.
Looking at this chart, it appears that buying on pullbacks can be done now that it looks as if the €7600 level is going to hold. We believe that eventually we will test the highs at the €7900 range, and as a result we are willing to buy pullbacks on shorter time frames.
The DAX had a positive session during the Monday trading hours, as the €7550 level offered support. The market looks like it’s trying to for some type of base at this point, and as a result we are not ready to start selling even though it starts to look a little bit weak lately. We believe that the consolidation should offer more of a buying opportunity, but having said that we need to see it right type of supportive candles in this general vicinity in order to start buying again. As far shorting is concerned, we would have to be well clear of the €7500 level in order to consider it.
Dax futures held resistance at 758/61 as expected & hit the 7579/76 target & low for the day as predicted, bottoming at 7570.
We watch for a break today to take us towards Feb lows at 7536. Good support from here down to 7525 should be a bargain buying opportunity but we need a stop below 7510 for a test of 100 day Moving Average at 7470.
The top side looks limited with resistance at 7611/14 then 7637 & 7658/61 likely to hold any strength again. However above here 7691/96 is another tough obstacle but a break allows another test of the recent high at 7728/39
The DAX printed in absolutely horrible looking candle for the week, but it should be noted that we are sitting just above a fairly significant support level in the form of €7500. Because of this, we are not ready to start selling yet, and do recognize the fact that we could see a potential support area just below, of course making a short sale very difficult to pull off. Looking at this chart, we actually expect to see some type of supportive candle just below in order to start buying again. However, we do not have that set up yet, so we are flat.
The DAX fell for the session on Friday, closing just below the €7600 level. The market has looked fairly weak lately, and those foretell of possible further weakness. However, we do see the €7500 level as a significant support area, and as such we think that this market could be ready to take a little bit of a bounce going forward. If it doesn’t, and we close below the €7500 level, we think this market reverses drastically and we start to selloff fairly aggressively. Otherwise, supportive candle will be bond between here and €7500.
Dax futures failed just below 7734/39, our selling opportunity & collapsed in spectacular style allowing us to buy in to longs down to 7614/11. We bottomed just here at 7606 as expected.
7611/06 could be tested again today with a risk of a break lower to 7579/76. A low for the day is possible here but watch for a break to take us towards last week’s low at 7536. Good support from here down to 7525 should be a bargain buying opportunity but we need a stop below 7510 for a test of 100 day Moving Average at 7470.
The top side looks limited with resistance at 7658/61 but above here 7691/96 is another tough obstacle. A break however allows another test of the week’s high at 7728/39.
The DAX had a negative showing on Thursday as the push lower continued. The market lost over 1%, and as a result it looks as if the DAX once to go lower. We still believe in the longer-term story when it comes to Germany, but perhaps a pullback to the €7500 level is about to happen. With this being the case, we are not interested in being in this market because we believe in the longer-term bullish case, and therefore do not would be in a short-term sell position. All things being equal, we believe that a supportive candle somewhere just above the €7500 level will lead to a significant bounce higher. Alternately, if we made to clear the €7750 level on a daily close, that would be enough for us to be convinced of the upward momentum being stronger now.
Dax futures broke higher hitting 7734 which we suggested was a good target to exit remaining longs & try shorts looking for a top in the early part of the week. We topped at 7739 so this trade is working nicely with short term indicators flashing overbought. A drift lower today tests support at 7696/91 but below here look for 7661/58. With the daily outlook more positive this may be as far as we fall so worth covering remaining shorts here. If we do continue lower look for 7638 then we aim to buy in to longs down to 7614/11.
7734/39 should offer another selling opportunity if tested but we need stops above 7760 for 7780/87 next target & resistance.
The DAX had a strong showing on Wednesday, breaking above the €7700 level. We look at this is a market that’s trying to grind higher, and we are more than willing to buy into as we believe that Germany is by far the biggest opportunity in Europe after this recent pullback. Looking at this chart, we believe that the €7850 level will be targeted over the course of the next couple of weeks. With that in mind, we are bullish, but also recognize the fact that this will be more of a grind higher than some type of straight shot higher like we’ve seen recently.
The DAX had a positive showing during the session on Tuesday, but still remains below the vital €7700 level. Because of this, we are neutral at the moment, but do recognize the potential for a much larger move higher. If the “risk on” trade comes back into play again, we should see the DAX test the €7850 level and the short term. We believe that this market will continue to show bullishness, and as a result we are more than willing to start buying above the near-term resistance. As far as selling is concerned, we really don’t have a scenario where we want to be bothered doing so, as we see potential for support at several different spots below.
Dax futures went for our target of 7660/70 and topped at 7678. We may see a pullback today with 7604/00 our first support. Below here we have Thurs/Friday lows at 7576/65 which may provide a floor again. However if we continue lower look for excellent support at 7536/26 which is very likely to hold the downside so we will be exiting any shorts and buying in to longs. Stops below 7500.
A break through 7680 today targets 7700/12 where we may top out for now. However above here 7734 is a good target to exit remaining longs & try shorts looking for a top in the early part of the week.
The German DAX went back and forth during the session on Monday, closing just slightly to the negative side. The market continues to struggle with the 7050 level, and as a result we think that this breakdown may be picking up a little bit of momentum. However, without a doubt Germany is where the money once we go if we are going to invest in Europe. Because of this, we think that there will be a little bit of hesitation the selloff the DAX, and as a result are fairly ambivalent about this market right now.
Dax futures went for our target of 7660/70 on Friday but failed just below here at 7655. A break through 7660/70 today, targets 7700/12 where we may top out for now. However above here 7734 is a good target to exit remaining longs & try shorts looking for a top in the early part of the week.
7610/04 is our first support today. Below here we have the low of the last 2 sessions at 7576/65 which may provide a floor again. However if we continue lower look for excellent support at 7536/26 which is very likely to hold the downside so we will be exiting any shorts and buying in to longs. Stops below 7500.
Wall Street is no stranger to strong performances in January, only to see the lofty gains early in the year transition into months of grinding action that goes nowhere. That’s what happened in the two previous years, sometimes called the Spring stall the, the economy in 2011 and 2012 stopped cold after the new year dragging equities along with it, and 2013 could follow the same routine. Markets are up this year in the face of Washington’s debates over fiscal policy, but a looming deadline on spending reductions could test the gains. At present global sentiment remains positive as eco data shows that the recovery in China and the US remains on track. This past week European leaders have finally agreed a budget deal for the rest of the decade after a marathon 25 hour negotiation session in Brussels, which will lead to the first cut in EU spending in its history. And we expect this to auger well for the region in the weeks to come. The Asian markets will remain prone to the global cues and the ongoing Bank of Japan restructuring.
Last week traders witnessed a somewhat bumpy week, both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 booked their sixth straight week of gains. The Dow closed down slightly after topping the 14,000 hurdle a week ago. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both rose between 0.3% and 0.5% Friday. The NASDAQ jumped and had a good run so far this year. The Dow and S&P 500 are both up nearly 7% and near their all-time highs, while the NASDAQ has gained nearly 6%.
Friday saw the New York exchanges wipe out most of the session’s losses to finish flat in choppy trading, but gains were limited by weakness in techs and as investors were reluctant to jump in following recent rallies that propelled major averages to five-year highs. The NASDAQ composite gained 0.5% for the week, while the DJIA lost 0.1% for the week. The euro declined the most since July versus the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said a strong currency could slow the region’s economic recovery, lifting bets the bank may lower interest rates. Ireland’s five-year note yields fell to the lowest in more than seven years after the nation won an agreement to restructure the costs of rescuing the former Anglo Irish Bank Corp. The CAC 40 lost 3.2% for the week, Followed by DAX (-2.3) and FTSE (-1.3%) for the week. Asian stocks outside Japan fell this week after the European Central Bank said the euro’s strength could hamper an economic recovery. Japanese shares gained as the yen fell after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will step down ahead of schedule. Amongst the Asian markets, The Shanghai composite remains the only one to be gained 0.2%, however, all the other indices Hang Sang lost 2.1%, followed by Nikkei (-0.3%), Straits Times (-0.6%) for the week. China is closed down for the lunar holiday.
This coming weeks main excitement maybe the upcoming G20 meeting, while sparks continue to fly in Japan and the beginnings of a currency war might be in the making as European exports suffer due to the weak yen. Gold remains directionless while crude oil remains a bit too high and maybe headed for a turn down. The US dollar gained for the week on weakness in the euro caused by the central bankers’ comments, along with political uncertainty in Spain and Italy. Positive trade balance data from US and China also showed signs of recovery in the world’s two largest economies and hurt gold’s safe haven appeal as the US dollar gathered momentum.
The DAX futures fell during the past week as we plunged below the €7600 level. However, we saw enough support there that the buyers just above the €7500 level caught the bearish action and push it back up. The market closed above the €7650 level, and as a result we think this shows that the market wants to continue to go sideways, and not the fall apart. If this is the case, this could be a very strong market indeed. After all, the DAX has been one the leaders in Europe, and we hope that it would continue to be based upon the underlying economy. However, we have to be cautious but are willing to buy supportive candles in this general vicinity.
The DAX rose during the Friday session in order to press up against the €7650 level. This was the site of a breakdown just a few sessions ago, so the question then becomes whether or not this is a retest of previous support as resistance, or if it simply a rebound that we’ve been looking for. If we managed get above the €7700 level, we believe that this market will continue higher and would certainly try to retest the €7850 level for resistance. This is the trade that we are looking for, but we have to be patient and wait for it to happen. At this point time, we are waiting on the sidelines but have our seven €700 level in mind.
Dax futures hit 7658 resistance as hoped. The market now looks like it may have bottom after we hit our target for the correction this week. 7612/19 is resistance but above we could stretch to 7660/70 and a break higher today targets 7700/12 where we may top out. However above here 7753 is a good target.
Yesterday’s low at 7565 then excellent support at 7536/26 very likely to hold the downside but a break targets a 9 month trend line and 100 day & 21 week moving averages at 7475/55 where we would expect a low for the day if seen.
The DAX futures attempted to rally during the session on Thursday, but as you can see by the daily chart failed miserably and pullback. Even though we managed to close the session slightly higher, the fact is that the buyers simply could not hang onto anything resembling a serious gain. The shooting star shaped candle does suggest that we may grind a bit lower. However, we do expect support at the €7500 level. Because of this, we actually are going to step to the sideline in this marketplace and to we get a much clearer signal.
Dax futures topped at 7699 resistance as expected. We then took a tumble towards support at 7528 where we suggested attempting longs we looked for a low for the day and possibly for the week. The low of the day was in fact 7536.
7600/12 is resistance but above we could stretch to 7658 which should hold but strong resistance above at 7695/99 again today and a high likely.
Excellent support at 7536/26 could hold the downside but a break targets a 9 month trend line and 100 day & 21 week moving averages at 7475/55 where we would expect a low for the day if seen.