Global Markets End Quiet Week Ahead of US Holiday

Global Markets End Quiet Week Ahead of US Holiday

Wall Street exchanges were flat for the week as a poor outlook from tech heavyweight Intel offset a better than expected quarterly profit at Morgan Stanley. Still, the S&P 500 was on track for a third week in a row of gains and remained near a five year high. Shares of giant technology company, Intel slumped 6.7% to USD21.17 a day after it forecast quarterly revenue below analysts’ estimates.

The US Department of Labor reported last week that the number of US workers filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in five years last week, the latest signal of an improving Labor market. Initial jobless claims declined by 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 335,000 in the week ending Jan. 12. Meanwhile, the US Home starts data surged in December as housing continues to boost the economic recovery. Housing starts rose 12.1% last month. That was the highest level since July 2008. The DJIA gained 1.2% for the week, while the NASDAQ gained 0.3% for the week. US markets are shuttered today, for Martin Luther King Day, this year it is combined with the Presidential Inauguration. There is very little on the global eco calendar to change markets today, so it is expected that traders will see a quiet bay.

Across the Atlantic in the EU, stocks were little changed as China’s economy accelerated for the first time in two years combined with retail sales and industrial production climbing higher than expected and a gauge of US consumer confidence, known as the Michigan Confidence Survey, unexpectedly declined.  Most agree this is due to Washington news over the fiscal cliff and disappointment that lawmakers have not resolved the issues.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.1% to 287 at the close of trading. The gauge lost less than 0.1% this week. The equity benchmark climbed to its highest level since February 2011 last week amid speculation that US companies’ earnings would exceed. The CAC 40 rose by 0.9%, followed by FTSE however, the DAX lost by 0.1% for the week.  A lot appears to be going right in Europe’s financial markets. Greece is no longer a threat, banks are looking stronger, and government borrowing costs are down. Yet Europe’s economy remains in a slump.

In Asia, Chinese consumer stocks rose in New York and the nation’s largest ETF in the US climbed to a two week high after growth in the Asian country’s economy accelerated for first time in two years. Japan stocks rose, with the Topix Index capping its longest weekly winning streak since 1986, after the yen fell below 90 to the USD for the first time in 2 1/2 years. The Shanghai Composite gained 3.3% for the week, followed by Hang Seng (1.0%), Nikkei (1.0%). However, Kospi fell by 0.44%. All eyes are on the Bank of Japan meeting that begins today, and later in the week Chinese HSBC PMI data will keep traders on edge.

DAX 30 Futures forecast for the week of January 21, 2013, Technical Analysis

The DAX had a negative week over the last five sessions, but remains consolidating above the €7600 level. We recently broken out from the €7500 level and we believe that this last two weeks have simply been the market taking a rest before its next move higher. Looking at the charts, there’s nothing to think that this market is going to suddenly reverse, and the recent action has certainly been very bullish, going all the way back to this past summer. On a break above the €7800 level, we think that this is a screening buy and would become aggressively long. We also would be buying a pullback that shows some type of support between €7500 and €7600.

 

DAX 30 Futures forecast for the week of January 21, 2013, Technical Analysis
DAX 30 Futures forecast for the week of January 21, 2013, Technical Analysis

DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 21, 2013, Technical Analysis

The DAX 30 fell during the Friday trading hours as we continue to consolidate between €7775 and €7625. With that being said, this is a very bullish market and quite frankly the massive move higher that we’ve seen warrants a rest at this point. Because of this, we certainly wouldn’t sell this market even if we see a breakdown at this point. We simply believe that the real money is going to be made going long in the DAX, and having said that we are simply looking for buying opportunities only at this point.

We believe that the €7600 level should be the bottom of the support just below, and as a result a pullback to that area would be bought by us with enthusiasm. Alternately, if we managed to break above the €7800 level, we think that this breakout will continue much higher.

 

DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 21, 2013, Technical Analysis
DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 21, 2013, Technical Analysis

DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 18, 2013, Technical Analysis

The DAX 30 futures market had a strong bounce off of the bottom of the gap that we have just filled. The hammer from the Wednesday session set up the bullish action we solve during the Thursday session, and now it appears that we are going to make an attempt to break out and above the €7800 level. It is at that point in time that we are more than willing to start buying the DAX again, as it would show a breakout and a continuation of the massive bullishness we’ve seen over the last couple of months. We fully anticipate this to happen, but we wait until we get that daily close above the €7800 in order to actually pull the trigger.

 

DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 18, 2013, Technical Analysis
DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 18, 2013, Technical Analysis

Dax March contract Forecast for 17th January 2013

Dax March contract Forecast for 17th January 2013
Dax March contract Forecast for 17th January 2013
Dax futures held inside the previous days range to leave the outlook unchanged with 7700 holding the topside and 7640 holding the downside as expected.

7700 is tricky resistance again today and daily charts have a more negative tone now so we could see the market under pressure again. We could head back to support at 7676/70 but below 7660 we could retest that 7640/32 area. Try longs again with a stop below 7620 for a test of good support at 7603/7593. We would expect a low for the day here and quite possibly for the week if this area is seen so this would be an excellent buying opportunity.

A move back above 7705 however sees 7715/21 then 7740/45. Above here look for 7769 but little chance of any higher today.

DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 17, 2013, Technical Analysis

The DAX fell during the session on Wednesday, only to fill in the gap that we had seen form two weeks ago. Because of this, we now feel that buyers will more than likely be willing to step into the market based upon this and the fact that the daily candle is a hammer. We think this is a very strong market, and of course wouldn’t short it based upon what we’ve seen over the last two months. With that being said, if we move above the €7800 level, this market could really start to take off.

 

DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 17, 2013, Technical Analysis
DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 17, 2013, Technical Analysis

Dax March contract Forecast for 16th January 2013

Dax March contract Forecast for 16th January 2013
Dax March contract Forecast for 16th January 2013
Dax futures headed lower to fill the gap down to 7640/32. We suggested exiting shorts and trying longs with a tight stop below 7620. The low was 7636 so this trade worked very well as we rallied back up to 7700.

7700 is tricky resistance today and daily charts have a more negative tone now so we could see the market under pressure again. We could head back to support at 7676/70 but below 7660 we could retest that 7640/32 area. Try longs again with a stop below 7620 for a test of good support at 7603/7593. We would expect a low for the day here and quite possibly for the week if this area is seen so this would be an excellent buying opportunity.

A move back above 7705 however sees 7715/21 then 7740/45. Above here look for 7769 but little chance of any higher today.

DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 16, 2013, Technical Analysis

The DAX initially rose during the session on Tuesday, but fell one quarter of a percent in order to continue the consolidation that we’ve seen since the gap two weeks ago. With this being said we are still fairly bullish on the DAX and believe that the €7600 level should continue to offer significant support. Because of this, we are more than willing to buy this market on the first signs of support, even on shorter-term charts such as the four hour and one hour versions. As far as selling is concerned, we have no interest in doing so until we clear that level significantly on a daily close.

 

DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 16, 2013, Technical Analysis
DAX 30 Futures Forecast January 16, 2013, Technical Analysis

Mixed Markets as EU Ministers Meet and Greece is in Focus

Mixed Markets as EU Ministers Meet and Greece is in Focus
Mixed Markets as EU Ministers Meet and Greece is in Focus
Although the US retail sales added on Friday to signs the United States is recovering, while the borrowing costs fell in Europe last week following the strong auctions, cautious is prevailing as the results of the Greek talks are unclear.

Investors are awaiting the progress of the crucial Greek talks, as the government is trying to reach an agreement with bondholders over the size of the losses in order to avoid a messy default.

Meanwhile in Europe the Euro zone finance ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the latest offer from private holders of Greek debt, while France and Germany are due to sell short term bonds today.

Data today is absent from both Europe and the U.S., while in Asia volumes were thin as most markets were closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year’s holiday, which marks the start of the Year of the Dragon.

Equities in Asia were mixed today with Nikkei 225 falling 0.01 while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%. The same goes for the currencies and commodities, while in Europe stocks started the session with losses, where DAX fell 0.24%.

The euro is moving with an upside momentum around the 1.2930 level, the pound is weakening trading around 1.5535, while the yen is weaker at 77.05. However the dollar index is falling trading around 80.20.

While gold is gaining trading around $1670.70, oil is weakening trading around $98.00 as EU foreign ministers will decide today when the embargo of Iranian oil will start, to increase pressures on Tehran to stop their nuclear program.

Markets Witness Mixed Trading after IMF Cuts Global Growth for 2012

US dollar managed to incline against most of major currencies as a report came from The Daily Telegraph today saying that the IMF will downgrade the global growth outlook for 2012 to 3.3% from 4.0%.

The IMF sees a 2.2 percent contraction for Italy and a 1.7 percent growth decline for Spain, as economies are weighed down by fiscal austerity measures, The IMF also urged the European Central Bank to boost liquidity to stave off a deeper Euro zone crisis.

While on the other hand, some major companies and banks in U.S announced their earnings reports for the fourth quarter, where Google and General Electric failed to reach markets expectations, affecting the performance of Stocks during Friday’s session.

In Europe, CAC 40 dropped nearly 0.04%, while DAX inclined by 0.14%, while in US, Dow Jones rose nearly 0.23%, S&P 500 dropped by 0.32%, and NASDAQ declined by 0.34%.

In Currencies market, the euro declined against USD trading around $1.2909 compared with opening levels at $1.2967, as demand for Euro decreased today, while the pound rose trading at $1.5517.

The USD gained some momentum today trading around the 80.28 level, while the USD/YEN pair inclined to trade at 77.13. The AUD/USD pair jumped trading around the 1.0457, where gold dropped trading around $1653.24, and oil declined also trading at $100.29.

Profit Taking Ahead of the Weekend

Although Greece is closer to reach a an agreement with bondholders, Europe’s bond auctions were successful this week, and the US presented upbeat economic data and earnings yesterday, markets are retreating on profit talking operations ahead of the weekend.

In Asia, stocks advanced on easing worries over Europe, since the French and Spanish bond auctions were solid yesterday, pushing the yields down. Meanwhile the U.S. jobless claims fell to the lowest in almost 4-years and Morgan Stanly and Bank of America posted better than expected earnings.

Nikkei 225 rose 1.47% especially since sentiment was positive as Greece is getting closer to reach an agreement with bondholders over the size of the losses to avoid a messy default, while China’s manufacturing PMI might contract for a 3rd month, boosting chances for easing measures to support growth.

However in Europe shares opened lower today as caution dominated ahead of the Greek talks, with DAX falling 0.38% while CAC 40 fell 0.51%. European stocks entered an overbought area after reaching a five month high, while Google delivered the first disappointing results on weaker European demand.

Data today include the UK retail sales expected to improve, Canada’s CPI expected to shrink, and the US existing home sales expected to expand in Dec. Earnings today include General Electric Co., while Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti’s Cabinet will meet to pass a plan to boost economic growth.

As risk aversion intensified ahead of the weekend, the euro is weakening, trading around 1.2925 while the pound is trading with a slight downside momentum around 15470. The dollar index is stronger trading around 80.27. The yen is weaker trading around 77.22. The AUD is weaker trading around 1.0395.

As the US dollar regained some of its strength, downside pressures were imposed on commodities, therefore oil lost ground since today’s opening, trading around $100.30 from the highest of $102.04; while gold is slightly lower on profit taking, trading around $1650.25, yet heads for the 3rd week of gains.

Markets Filled with Optimism after Upbeat U.S Jobless Claims

Markets faced a cheerful trading after the upbeat jobless claims, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurances dropped by 50 thousand to 352 thousand last week, from a revised 402 thousand, the lowest in almost four year and beating analysts’ median estimates of 384 thousand. noting that markets were filled with optimism after the Spanish and French auction which came better than they targeted, .

The sentiment improved in the market today after the Spanish and French bond auctions, as Spain sold 3.009 billion Euros of 5.85% 2022 bonds, on an average yield of 5.403%, compared with the previous of 6.975% recorded in the November auction. Demand for these bonds was 2.17 times the quantity offered compared with 1.54 times an auction earlier.

In Europe, CAC 40 jumped 1.96%, while DAX inclined by 0.97%, while in US, Dow Jones rose nearly 0.25%, S&P 500 inclined by 0.49%, and NASDAQ rose by 0.80%.

In Currencies market, the euro inclined against USD trading around $1.2923 compared with opening levels at $1.2862, as demand for higher yielding assets increased somehow, while the pound rose trading at $1.5473.

The USD lost the momentum today trading around the 80.23 level, while the USD/YEN pair inclined to trade at 77.20. The AUD/USD pair declined trading around the 1.0404, where gold dropped trading around $1652.95, and oil declined also trading at $100.75.

Euro advances on IMF and Greece, ahead of France’s and Spain’s bond auctions

Markets are rising quietly ahead of the France’s and Spain’s bond auctions on hopes Greece will soon reach an agreement with bondholders while the International Monetary Fund considers expanding its lending resources to help the euro-zone countries fight the debt crisis.

The IMF is seeking to expand its lending resources by $500 billion yet the U.S. and other countries rejected the idea, considering that the Europe must solve this problem with its own money. Meanwhile Greece might reach an agreement with bondholders over the size of the losses to avoid a messy default.

The upbeat earnings report from Goldman Sachs and EBay helped keep sentiment positive, while earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanly, Google, Microsoft and Intel will keep investors cautious, especially after the New York based Kodak filed for bankruptcy as consumers turned from film to digital technology.

Asian stocks advance today on IMF and China, as world’s 2nd largest economy considers easing the capital requirements and is letting its five biggest banks boost lending to avoid hard landing risks. Nikkei 225 rose 1.04% yet the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.07% after Australia’s employment unexpectedly fell in Dec.

In Europe shares advanced on Greece and IMF hopes ahead of the France’s and Spain’s long-dated bond auctions. Portugal’s yields fell yesterday after a successful auction easing some of the worries ignited since S&P’s mass debt rating cuts in Europe. DAX rose 0.04% while CAC 40 gained 0.49%.

Today the ECB will release its monthly report, while the US will be releasing its CPI index, the housing starts and building permits data along with the weekly jobless claims, Philly index and EIA crude oil inventories. In Europe, France will sell 9.5 billion euros of debt while Spain will sell 4.5 billion euros of bonds.

The euro is seeing some gains trading around 1.2888 while the pound is trading with a slight upside momentum around 1.5437. The dollar index is slightly falling trading around 80.36, while the yen is strengthening trading around 76.70. The AUD is weakening following the jobs data trading around 1.0395.

As the US dollar lost its appeal commodities found support for another day where crude is trading with gains around $101.65 compared with the lowest at $101.01 while gold is around $1665.20 from the lowest at $1655.80 as eyes are on Europe.

Mix Trading in Market Despite Cheerful German Bond Auction

Mix Trading in Market Despite Cheerful German Bond Auction
Mix Trading in Market Despite Cheerful German Bond Auction
Markets turn mix despite the German and Portuguese bond auction that showed an incline in demand, and that made investors to buy more Euros, so the euro rose against US dollar, while stocks in Europe went red.

The euro advanced sharply against the U.S dollar after the International Monetary Fund said that it could expand its capacity to 1 trillion dollars from 385 billion dollar in order to support the global economy and prevent the debt crisis from spreading outside the euro-area region.

The German successful bond sale also added positivity to the market and supported the euro to hold onto the gains despite the government’s act of revising growth forecasts.

In Europe, CAC 40 declined nearly 0.30%, while DAX inclined by 0.30%, while in US, Dow Jones rose nearly 0.35%, S&P 500 inclined by 0.45%, and NASDAQ rose by 0.76%.

In Currencies market, the euro inclined against USD trading around $1.2809 compared with opening levels at $1.2735, as demand for higher yielding assets increased somehow, while the pound rose trading at $1.5402.

The USD lost the momentum today trading around the 80.74 level, while the USD/YEN pair returned to opening levels to trade at 76.79. The AUD/USD pair inclined trading around the 1.0393, where gold rose trading around $1655.84, and oil dropped trading at $100.23.

Markets Led by Improved Optimism Over Greece

Markets were cautious after in UK the unemployment rate hit a 17-years high at 8.4%, while the World Bank cut its growth forecasts by the most in three years, yet after the IMF said it could propose expanding its lending resources by $1 trillion, sentiment turned positive.

The World Bank said the world economy will grow 2.5% this year compared with June’s estimate of 3.6%, while the euro area may contract 0.3% from a previous estimate of a 1.8% gain. Yet markets had a muted response just like the reaction to S&P’s downgrade to the EFSF’s rating.

Sentiment found more support as Greek Prime Minister will resume negotiations with bondholders as the country is close to reaching an agreement over the size of the losses to be bared by the creditors. Meanwhile Portugal will sell 2.5 billion euros of debt while Germany will sell 4 billion euros of bonds.

After the US manufacturing expanded by the fastest pace in 9 months while the German investor confidence jumped the most on record yesterday, investors will focus on today’s data as well, as the US industrial production is expected to rebound in Dec. after falling for the first time in seven months in Nov.

The PPI in the States is expected to fall, while in UK the unemployment rate hit a 17-years high deepening concerns Britain is heading for another recession. Most Asian stocks advanced today on positive economic data, where Nikkei 225 gained 0.99% while Hang Seng gained 0.30%.

In Europe shares advanced following the string auctions from Europe and the IMF proposal to expand its lending resources where DAX gained 0.74% while CAC 40 gained 0.70%. The euro is enjoying strong gains trading around 1.2830 while the pound is trading with upside momentum around 1.5375.

The yen was a bit stronger trading around 76.75, while the AUD is gaining trading around 1.0405. As the US dollar lost its appeal commodities found support today where crude is trading with gains around $101.25 compared with the lowest at $100.52 while gold is around $1655.50 as eyes are on Europe.

Markets Turned Optimistic on Upbeat Data from China, EU and US

Markets felt optimistic after the Chinese GDP that showed an expansion in fourth quarter growth better than expected, adding that markets continued the sharp rebound after the upbeat European economic sentiment and the slowdown in inflation in addition to the Spanish bond sale.

On the other hand, sentiment continued to be positive after the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) sold the targeted amount of bills at an auction today which was met with strong demand.

Knowing that investors moved towards high yielding assets with European stocks gaining some momentum; the euro inclined against US dollar during today’s sessions erasing some of Friday’s losses.

In Europe, CAC 40 rose nearly 1.40%, while DAX inclined by 1.82%, while in US, Dow Jones rose nearly 0.96%, S&P 500 inclined by 0.86%, and NASDAQ rose by 1.09%.

In Currencies market, the euro inclined against USD trading around $1.2738 compared with opening levels at $1.2664, as demand for higher yielding assets increased somehow, while the pound rose trading at $1.5348.

The USD lost the momentum today trading around the 84.08 level, while the USD/YEN pair returned to opening levels to trade at 76.77. The AUD/USD pair inclined trading around the 1.0389, where gold rose trading around $1659.69, and oil also jumped trading at $100.30.

Markets Turned Flat after France Auction

Markets were flat today, as Euro managed to cover the gap that has emerged over the weekend after France lost its top credit rating AAA, while eight other European nations saw their credit ratings being cut by S&P on Friday.

On the other hand, the sentiment improved further in the market after the French bond auction, which came better than expectations, as the country was able to access the capital market easily on lower yields and strong demand despite the fact that Standard and poor’s rating agency downgraded the French top credit rating of AAA by one notch to AA+.

Knowing that investors moved towards high yielding assets with European stocks gaining some momentum; the euro covered the gap and European stocks inclined erasing earlier losses.

In Europe, CAC 40 rose nearly 1.0%, while DAX inclined by 1.4%, while the American market is closed today, as this day is Martin Luther King Day in the United States.

In Currencies market, the euro inclined against USD trading around $1.2674 compared with opening levels at $1.2634, as demand for higher yielding assets increased somehow, while the pound rose trading at $1.5332.

The USD lost the momentum today trading around the 81.37 level, while the USD/YEN pair dropped to trade at 76.71. The AUD/USD pair inclined trading around the 1.0331, where gold rose trading around $1644.50, and oil also jumped trading at $99.57.

Markets Tumble on European Downgrade Reports

Markets Tumble on European Downgrade Reports
Markets Tumble on European Downgrade Reports
Markets turned pessimistic today erasing early gains, as reports came out lately today showing that S&P will move forward with euro area downgrades with French TV saying that the nation lost its top credit rating.

Knowing that investors moved towards low yielding assets with European stocks snapping the gains, the euro turning lower and European stocks surrendering earlier gains. The news reports suggested that Standard & Poor’s is set to downgrade the credit rating of several euro zone nations according to government sources.

And that overshadowed the upbeat Uni. of Michigan Confidence index. In Europe, CAC 40 dropped nearly 0.3%, while DAX declined by 0.74%, on the other hand, in America, the Dow Jones slipped by 0.67%, and the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.73%.

In Currencies market, the euro slipped heavily against USD trading around $1.2677 compared with opening levels at $1.2813, as demand for higher yielding assets decreased, while the pound dropped trading at $1.5294.

The USD gained momentum today after declining earlier trading around the 81.47 level, while the USD/YEN pair inclined to trade at 76.91. The AUD/USD pair dropped trading around the 1.0295, where gold declined trading around $1637.00, and oil also slipped trading at $98.82.

Optimism on Eased Worries Over Europe; Focus on Italy’s Auction, US Data

Markets turned positive today after Italy’s and Spain’s bond yields fell yesterday following the strong bond auctions, while ECB’s president Mario Draghi said there are “tentative signs of stabilization”, easing worries over the debt crisis.

Demand on the higher yielding assets increased today as in the US the consumer confidence is expected to rise to a 7-month high while Italy is expected to witness strong demand on the 4.75 billion euros of bonds it will sell today.

In Asia stocks rose to a one month high as sentiment improved as European policy makers are expected to start keeping the debt crisis under control, therefore Nikkei 225 rose 1.36% while Hang Seng rose 0.57%.

In Europe stocks rose as the euro is buoyant on eased worries over Europe which gave support to the commodities as well. DAX gained as of this writing 0.59% while CAC 40 gained 0.75%.

Data today may show that the US consumer confidence rose in Jan. to 71.5, the highest in 7 months. In Europe data may show the trade balance may see deficit in Nov., while in UK the PPI fell in Dec.

As the risks on the global economic outlook eased with Europe expected to start keeping the debt crisis under control, the euro gained trading around 1.2825, while the pound is around 1.5350.

The dollar index is weakening trading around 80.75, while the yen was higher trading around 76.70. The AUD rose today trading around 1.0350. Gold however fell today trading around $1640.30.

Oil recovered some of the sharp losses seen yesterday after Europe said it will delay the restrictions on oil imports from Iran for about 6 months. Crude is now trading with bullish momentum around the $99.55 level.

Market gained on Successful Bond Auction in Italy and Spain

The market enjoyed some gains on Thursday after the bond auctions went smoothly and successfully in both Spain and Italy while the ECB president Draghi said tentative signs of stability are seen.

On Thursday Spain sold double its target raising 10 billion euros as costs fell. While Italy also saw borrowing costs fall sharply as it raised its targeted 12 billion euros.

Furthermore, the ECB left interest rates steady at 1.00%, while Draghi expects growth to recover gradually, where domestic demand and growth in general may be hurt by bond and financial markets tensions.

On the American side, unlike the market forecasts Thursday’s retail sales for December along came in worse than projected and gloomier than the prior reading regardless of the holiday shopping season as cheaper fuel prices and discounts held down actually the value of goods sold, while that jobless claims rose up despondently.

Thereby European shares were mix with DAX inclining by 0.48% while CAC closed Thursday’s session unchanged, as demand for higher yielding assets is increasing; the euro jumped trading at 1.2818, while the pound inclined slightly trading at 1.5336.

The USD lost yesterday’s gain trading around the 80.81 level, while declined to trade at 76.70. The AUD is unchanged trading around the 1.0308, where gold gained trading around $1654.55, and oil jumped again  trading at $102.22.