E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Early Gains Erased by Recession Fears

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower late in the session on Thursday after giving back earlier gains. After a promising start, buyers disappeared amid growing recession fears.

The blue chip average fell even as government bond yields hit two-week lows. However, rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks gained, including Dow components Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp.

At 18:11 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 30370, down 101 or -0.33%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $303.97, down $0.69 or -0.21%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fueled the recession fears when in his second day of testimony to Congress he said the central bank’s commitment to rein in 40-year-high inflation is “unconditional” but it comes with the risk of higher unemployment.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 29639 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 33255 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 30999 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift the momentum to up.

The minor range is 29639 to 30770. Its pivot is 30205.

The short-term range is 33255 to 29639. If the minor trend changes to up then look for a test of its retracement zone at 31447 to 31874.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 30205 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini Dow into the close on Thursday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 30205 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a run into yesterday’s high at 30770. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could extend the move into the minor top at 30999.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 30205 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sharp break into the main bottom at 29639.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – ‘Possibility’ of Recession Capping Gains

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower early Thursday after the blue chip average slipped into negative territory shortly before yesterday’s regular session close. Driving the selling pressure is worries over the likelihood of a recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged it’s a possibility.

At 03:24 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading at 30415, down 56 or -0.18%. On Wednesday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $304.51, down $0.78 or -0.26%.

Powell’s Remarks Weigh on Equities

Wednesday’s late session weakness and today’s early dip came after Federal Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation. He also noted that a recession is a “possibility,” a fear that has continued to weigh on Wall Street.

Powell’s Testimony Continues

On Thursday, investors will be looking forward to fresh jobless claims data and Flash PMI reports.

Traders are expecting unemployment claims to have risen 227K, slightly below the previous week’s 229K. Look for the Flash Manufacturing PMI to show a 56.0 reading. Traders are expecting the Flash Services PMI to come in at 53.9.

Powell will also give remarks to the House, after having addressed the Senate Wednesday. The remarks are part of a congressionally mandated semiannual report on monetary policy.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 29639 will signal a resumption to the downtrend. A move through 33255 will change the main trend to up.

Like the main trend, minor trend is down. A trade through 30999 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 30999 to 29639. The market is currently straddling its pivot at 30319.

The short-term range is 33255 to 29639. Watch for a surge into the retracement zone at 31447 to 31874 if the minor trend changes to up.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the minor pivot at 30319 will determine the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones early Thursday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 30319 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out yesterday’s high at 30770 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the minor top at 30999.

Taking out 30999 will change the minor trend to up. This could create the momentum needed to challenge 31447 – 31874.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 30319 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 30204.  Look for a retest of the main bottom at 29639 if 30204 fails as support. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the February 1, 2021 main bottom at 20927.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Stable after This Week’s Brutal Selloff

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up late in the session on Friday after erasing an earlier deficit. Nonetheless, the volatile price action suggests investors are still grappling with a likely recession after the Federal Reserve and other major central banks aggressively raised interest rates this week in an effort to tame soaring inflation.

At 19:01 GMT, September E-mini Dow futures are trading 30030, up 111 or +0.37%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $300.47, up $1.26 or +0.42%.

Earlier in the year, the blue chip average was pressured by hot inflation readings. Then it was the fear of higher interest rates weighing on prices. This week, concerns over the aggressiveness of most major central banks, attributed to a brutal sell-off as traders priced in a slowing economy and lower corporate earnings.

Powell Speaks as Factory Orders Fell

On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again stressed the central bank’s focus on bringing back inflation to its 2% target while speaking at a conference.

Meanwhile, economic data on Friday showed production at U.S. factories fell unexpectedly in the latest indication economic activity was on the wane.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 29639 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

A move through 33255 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the market is ripe for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This won’t change the trend, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 30999 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 30999 to 29639. The E-mini Dow is trading below its pivot at 30319, making it resistance.

The short-term range is 33255 to 29639. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at 31447 – 31874 will become the next target area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 29919 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones futures contract into the close on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 29919 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a late session surge into the pivot at 30319.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 29919 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the intraday low at 29639.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Testing 30,000 as Recession Fears Mount

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are sharply lower at the mid-session, piercing the psychological 30,000 level on Thursday as investors continued to trim long stock positions on worries the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening would push the economy into a recession.

At 18:04 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 29976, down 675 or -2.20%. This is up from an intraday low of 29792. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $300.73, down 6.50 or -2.12%.

The Dow traded below 30,000 for the first time since January 4, 2021 after first breaking above that level for the first time in November 2020.

Nearly All Dow Components under Pressure

Home Depot, Intel, Walgreens, JPMorgan, 3M, and American Express hit new 52-week lows amid growing recession fears. Staple stocks, known for their steady cash flows that could hold up during recessions, traded into the green or near the flatline. Procter & Gamble gained 1.6% and Walmart was slightly higher at 1.76%.

Economic Data Signals Economic Slowdown

U.S. economic data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when sellers took out the March 4, 2021 main bottom at 29987.

A trade through 33255 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the market is inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 30999 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift the momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 33255 to 29792. Its retracement zone at 31524 to 31932 is the nearest resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 30651 will determine the direction of the September E-mini Dow into the close on Thursday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 30651 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 29792 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the February 1, 2021 main bottom at 29027 the next major bottom.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 30651 will signal the presence of buyers. This would put the E-mini Dow in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. Taking out the minor top will be a sign of strength with 31524 – 31932 the next potential upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – In Position to Test 15-Month Bottom

CSeptember E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down sharply at the mid-session on Monday. The selling is being driven by fears that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes would tip the economy into recession.

Friday’s hotter-than-expected inflation print is prompting traders to price in a total of 175 basis points (bps) in interest rate hikes by September.

At 16:49 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 30733, down 626 or -2.00%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $308.17, down $6.20 or -1.97%.

Yield Curve Inverts

The two-year 10-year US Treasury yield curve briefly inverted for the first time since April. Many market participants see this as a reliable signal that a recession could come in the next year or two.

Investors Eyeing Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Decisions

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the FOMC is widely expected to announce a 50-basis-point rate hike. However, the speed and scale of rate hikes that policymakers believe will be needed to quash red-hot inflation will be the focus.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down earlier on Monday when sellers took out the previous swing bottom at 30574. A trade through 33255 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 33255 to 30453. Its retracement zone at 31854 to 32185 is the nearest resistance area. This zone will move lower if sellers take out 30453.

The short-term range is 35405 to 30453. Its retracement zone at 32929 to 33513 is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 3900.50 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini Dow into the close on Monday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3900.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 30453 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. Consequently, this could trigger a further break into the March 4, 2021 main bottom at 29987. Furthermore, if this level fails to hold then look for the selling to possibly extend into the February 2, 2021 main bottom at 29027.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3900.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This will put the index in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

Confirming the chart pattern, could trigger a surge into the minor retracement zone at 31854 – 32185.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Pressured by CPI Surge, Higher Yields

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down sharply late Friday and in a position to post its biggest weekly percentage loss since January as a jump in U.S. consumer prices in May fueled fears of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

At 18:00 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 31436, down 800 or -2.48%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $314.32, down $8.68 or -2.69%.

Consumer Inflation Surge Drives Yields Higher

The U.S. Labor Department’s report, released before the cash market opening, showed the consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.0% last month after gaining 0.3% in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the monthly CPI picking up 0.7%.

Year-on-year, CPI surged 8.6%, its biggest gain since 1981 and following an 8.3% jump in May.

Following the inflation report, two-year Treasury yields, which are highly sensitive to rate hikes, spiked to 3.057%, the highest since June 2008. Benchmark 10-year yields reached 3.178%, the highest since May 9.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend changed to down on Thursday when sellers took out the last swing bottom at 32472. A trade through 33255 will change the main trend to up.

The main range is 35405 to 30574. Its retracement zone at 32990 to 33560 is resistance. This zone stopped the buying at 33255 on June 3.

The short-term range is 30574 to 33255. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 31915 to 31598, making it resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 31598 is likely to determine the direction of the E-mini Dow into the close on Friday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31598 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum, we could see a near-term acceleration into the main bottom at 30574.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31598 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a quick rally into the short-term 50% level at 31915.

Overtaking 31915 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a late session retracement into a minor pivot at 32296.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Down on Economic Slowdown Concerns

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are under pressure shortly after the cash market close on Wednesday. The price action suggests the weakness may carry over into Thursday’s opening. Weighing on the blue chip average are concerns over a potential economic slowdown and firm U.S. Treasury yields.

At 20:15 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 32919, down 246 or -0.74%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $329.44, down $2.73 or -0.82%.

Investors Worried about Economic Slowdown

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker shows a growth rate of just 0.9% for the second quarter, down from 1.3% last week.

Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti, who previously called for a recession by the end of 2023, said in a note to clients on Wednesday that the odds for a recession are likely to rise in the coming months.

The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast by nearly a third to 2.9% to 2022, warning that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, and many countries now faced recession.

Stocks in the News

Intel Corp slid 5% as Citi Research warned the chipmaker could pre-announce weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter.

The financial sector also took a hit with Goldman Sachs Group dropping 2.12%, American Express off by 1.62% and JPMorgan Chase down 1.59%.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 32491 will change the main trend to down. A move through 33317 and 33434 will reaffirm the uptrend.

The minor range is 33434 to 32491. The market is currently straddling its pivot at 32963.

On the upside, the resistance is the main retracement zone at 33647 to 34369. On the downside, the next key target area is the retracement zone at 32010 to 31673.

Short-Term Outlook

Wednesday’s price action suggests the direction of the E-mini Dow into the close and on the opening Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 32963.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32963 could trigger a near-term break into 32010 – 32673.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32963 could lead to a test of the main retracement zone at 33647 -34369.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Recovery Rally Fueled by Drop in Yields

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are moving higher late in the session on Tuesday. Solid gains in Apple helped turn the market higher after an early setback was fueled by weakness in the retail sector, led by Walmart.

Demand for blue chip stocks was also boosted by a drop in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which retreated back below 3%.

At 19.30 GMT, the June E-mini Dow is at 33169, up 257 or +0.78%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $332.14, up $2.69 or +0.82%.

Dow Rides Apple’s Strength Higher

Apple Inc shares were up 1.8%. The gains came despite news earlier in the day that the company much change the connector on iPhones sold in Europe by 2024 after EU countries and lawmakers agreed to a single charging port for mobile phones, tablets and cameras.

Walmart’s Weakness Limits Dow’s Performance

Walmart Inc shares were down 1.7%, pressuring the Dow early in the session. The major retailer tumbled in sympathy with shares of Target Corp, which lost nearly 4% after the retailer said it would have to offer deeper discounts and cut back on stocking discretionary items.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the two main tops at 33317 and 33434 will signal a resumption of the main trend. A move through 32491 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 36708 to 30585. Its retracement zone at 33647 to 34369 is resistance.

The short-term range is 30585 to 33434. If the main trend changes to down then look for a break into its retracement zone at 32010 to 31673.

The minor range is 33434 to 32491. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 32963, making it support.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to 32963 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Tuesday or on Wednesday’s premarket opening.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32963 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a late session rally on Tuesday or an early session rally on Wednesday with the first two targets the main tops at 33317 and 33434.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32963 will signal the presence of sellers with 32603 and 32491 late session or early Wednesday targets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Up as US Mulls Lifting China Tariffs

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are creeping higher early Monday despite Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report that signaled the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy aggressively to combat surging inflation.

At 07:35 GMT, the June E-mini Dow is trading 33072, up 184 or +0.56%. On Friday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $329.38, down $3.39 or -1.02%.

According to Reuters, sentiment is getting a boost from comments by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo that President Joe Biden has asked his team to look at the option of lifting some tariffs on China.

Looking ahead, investors will be eyeballing this week’s U.S. consumer price report, due to be released on Friday. Forecasts are for a steep rise of 0.7% in May, though the annual pace is seen holding 8.3% while core inflation is seen slowing a little to 5.9%.

A high number could be bearish for stocks because it would add to expectations of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve with markets already priced for half-point increases in June and July, and almost 200 basis points by the end of the year.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 33434 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through 32491 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is 33434 to 32491. The market is currently straddling its pivot at 32963.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is the main retracement zone at 33647 to 34369.

The short-term range is 30585 to 33434. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to continue into its retracement zone at 32010 to 31673.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the pivot at 32963 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average early Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32963 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at 33434.

Taking out 33434 will reaffirm the uptrend with the main 50% level at 33647 the next target. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level. However, overcoming it could trigger a surge into another main top at 34027, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 34369.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32963 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 32491.

A trade through 34291 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger a further break into the short-term retracement zone at 32010 to 31673. Look for counter-trend buyers to return on a test of this area. They are going to try to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Turns Higher on ADP Report Miss

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher late in the session on Thursday, erasing an early loss. Volume is light and the price action choppy ahead of a key jobs report due on Friday.

The blue chip average was pressured early after Microsoft cut its fourth-quarter forecast for profit and revenue, making it the latest U.S. company to warn of a hit from a stronger U.S. Dollar. Shares have since recovered from the earlier sell-off and are now up about 0.1%.

At 18:52 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are at 33078, up 280 or +0.85%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is trading $331.38, up $3.02 or +0.92%.

In economic news, U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May, suggesting demand for labor was starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tightening financial conditions, the ADP National Employment report showed.

Rates fell as traders took the ADP report to mean the economy is already slowing, suggesting the Federal Reserve could be less aggressive in tightening monetary policy. The drop in rates was also supportive for stocks.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 33434 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 30585 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 36708 to 30585. Its retracement zone at 33647 to 34369 is the next major upside target and possible resistance.

The short-term range is 30585 to 33434. Its retracement zone at 32010 to 31673 is the key support area.

The minor range is 33434 to 32491. The E-mini Dow is currently straddling its pivot at 32963.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

Trader reaction to 32963 will likely determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones futures contract into the close on Thursday and early Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32963 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a retest of the main top at 33434. Overtaking this will reaffirm the uptrend with the main 50% level at 33647 the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32963 will indicate the presence of sellers. This move could generate the momentum needed to challenge the intraday low at 32491. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term retracement zone at 32010 to 31673.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – May Be Setting Up for Reversal Top

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower shortly before the cash market opening on Tuesday, as surging oil prices fanned fears of further acceleration in global inflation, forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks to keep raising interest rates.

Investors are showing little response to signs that China’s economic pain may be abating amid easing COVID-19 curbs and focused instead on the inflation outlook, as Brent crude futures rallied above $123 a barrel, a two-month high, and a Fed governor backed further interest rate hikes to tame prices.

At 11:17 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33015, down 143 or -0.43%. On Friday, the last active trading session before Monday’s U.S. bank holiday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average EFT (DIA) settled at $332.12, up $5.67 or +1.74%.

Bearish Factors Weighing on Investor Sentiment

Crude oil prices could be looking at further upside action as the European Union’s decision to slash Russian oil imports, high U.S. summer driving demand and the easing of Chinese lockdowns could contribute to an already tight global crude supply. High oil prices are likely to keep the upside pressure on inflation, one of the main reasons stocks have fallen this year.

In the U.S., more hawkish talk from a Fed official on Monday dampened the notion the Fed could ease raising rates in September. This was one of the reasons for last week’s rally. With U.S. inflation running more than three times the 2% goal, Fed Governor Christopher Waller yesterday advocated 50 basis-point rate hikes until there was a “substantial” reduction in inflation.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 33434 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 30585 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 36708 to 30585. Its retracement zone at 33647 to 34369 is the next major upside target and potential resistance.

The short-term range is 30585 to 33434. Its retracement zone at 32010 to 31673 is the nearest downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on the first test of this area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 33158 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33158 will indicate the presence of buyers. A trade through 33434 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the 50% level at 33647 the next target.

Aggressive counter-trend sellers could come in on the first test of 33647. Overcoming this level, however, could trigger a surge into the main top at 34027, followed by the Fibonacci level at 34369.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33158 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a possible acceleration to the downside with 32010 to 31673 the next target area.

Side Notes

A close under 33158 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2-3 day correction with 32010 the minimum downside target.

If this doesn’t form today then look for the rally to possibly extend into the retracement zone at 33647 to 34369. This is 50% to 61.8% of the contract range. Sellers usually come in when this area is tested.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Bulls Face Challenge at 33647 – 34369

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose on Friday as investors continued to pick up stocks at relatively reduced levels following a recent steep sell-off.

The blue chip average had recently fallen to its lowest level in over a year, but investors seem to be expressing some optimism that the overall stock market may have finally found a bottom.

On Friday, the June E-mini Dow settled at 33158, up 558 or +1.68%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) finished at $332.12, up $5.67 or +1.74%.

Friday Recap

Helping to fuel the solid rally was encouraging U.S. economic data that showed better-than-expected consumer spending and appeared to reaffirm the data from the CPI report earlier in the month that suggested inflation had peaked.

The first report demonstrated the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. The second report fueled hopes that the Fed’s hawkish maneuvers to contain decades-high inflation will not cool the economy into recession.

In stock related news, shares of Apple, +4.08%, Boeing, +3.52% and Walt Disney, +3.51%, provided the strongest lift to the Dow. Every stock in the 30 component average posted gains from +0.59% to +4.08%.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up last week when buyers took out the previous main top at 32692. A move through 30585 will change the main trend to down.

The market closed on the strong side of a 50% level at 32999, making it potential support. This is followed by the short-term retracement zone at 32712 to 32306.

The minor range is 30585 to 33239. Its retracement zone at 31912 to 31599 is potential support.

The contract range is 36708 to 30585. Its retracement zone at 33647 to 34369 is the primary upside target.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to 32999 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow early Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32999 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking last week’s high at 33239 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into the major 50% level at 32999.

Look for sellers on the first test of 32999. However, overcoming this level could extend the rally into the main top at 34027, followed by the major Fibonacci level at 34369.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32999 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break into a series of retracement levels at 32712, 32306, 31912 and 31599.

A break into the 31912 – 31599 retracement zone would be considered a normal 50% – 61.8% correction of the first leg up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Looking to Extend Rally Thru 32999

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly before the mid-session on Friday. The catalysts behind the move are upbeat earnings, strength in consumer spending and signs that inflation was peaking. The price action suggests the news is favorably enough to dampen concerns about a sharp slowdown in economic growth.

At 15:03 GMT, the June E-mini Dow is at 32812, up 212 or +0.65%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $328.62, up $2.17 or +0.67%.

Economic News Driving Prices Higher

Traders are reacting favorable to a slew of U.S. economic reports released earlier today especially reports on inflation and consumer spending.

Reports from the Commerce Department showed consumer spending rose by a more-than-expected 0.9% in April and inflation rose at a slower rate. The positive results are raising hopes that the Federal Reserve might not hike rates as aggressively as previously thought.

March spending growth was also revised to 1.4% from 1.1%. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, gained 0.2% last month after shooting up 0.9% in March.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out yesterday’s high. A trade through 30585 will change the main trend to down. The next target is the main top at 34027.

The short-term range is 34027 to 30585. The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 32712 to 32306, making it support.

The intermediate range is 35413 to 30585. Its pivot at 32999 is the next upside target.

The primary upside target of this rally is the retracement zone at 33647 to 34369.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 32712 will determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones futures contract into the close on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32712 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is 32999. Taking out this level could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main 50% level at 33647.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32712 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50% level at 32306. Buyers could come in on the first test of this level, but if it fails then look for the counter-trend selling to get stronger.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Main Trend Turns Bullish

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading sharply higher late Thursday, putting the market in a position to post its first weekly gain in eight weeks. The catalysts behind the move are a raft of solid retail earnings and soft economic data.  Dow retail stocks posting the biggest gains are Home Depot, up 3.07% and Walmart, up 2.02%.

At 19:18 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are at 32590, up 514 or +1.60%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is trading $326.44, up $5.16 or +1.61%.

In economic news, first-quarter gross domestic product declined at a 1.5% annual pace, worse than the 1.3% Dow Jones estimate and a writedown from the initially reported 1.4%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Initial claims for the week ending May 14 totaled 218,000, which was an increase from the previous period and slightly higher than the 215,000 estimate.

The mixed economic data released on Thursday was actually good news for the stock market. The data on quarterly GDP and weekly jobless claims is suggesting the economy is slowing just enough to prompt a possibly dovish pivot from the Fed by September.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up when buyers took out the last swing top at 32692. A trade through 30585 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 34027 to 30585. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at 32306 to 32712.

The intermediate range is 35413 to 30585. Its 50% level at 32999 is another upside target.

The main resistance is the retracement zone at 33647 to 34369.

On the downside, the next potential support is the minor retracement zone at 31656 to 31403.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 32712 will likely determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Thursday and on the opening early Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32712 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough momentum then look for a late session surge into 32999. This is the last potential resistance before the 33647 to 34369 retracement zone.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32712 will signal the presence of sellers. This could generate the downside momentum needed to challenge the short-term 50% level at 32306.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Fed Minutes Should Set Tone into Close

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower in a directionless trade on Wednesday ahead of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting, which will likely offer clues on the path of future rate hikes.

The minutes are due at 18:00 GMT. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has promised to keep pushing on rate hikes until there is clear and convincing evidence that inflation is dropping.

At 17:05 GMT, the June E-mini Dow is trading 31836, down 44 or -0.14%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $318.61, down $0.78 or -0.24%.

“Today, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members’ views on how quickly they anticipate inflation to come down, as well as any potential revelations on balance sheet reduction will be scrutinized by investors,” Raffi Boyadjian, lead investment analyst at brokerage XM, said.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 32692 will change the main trend to up. A move through 30585 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum.

On the downside, the nearest support is a pair of pivots at 31639 and 31347.

On the upside, the first resistance is a short-term 50% level at 32306, followed by a resistance cluster at 32692 – 32712.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 31639 will determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones into the close on Wednesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31639 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 32108 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into 32306.

Sellers could come in on the first test of 32306, but taking it out with strong buying volume could trigger a surge into the resistance cluster at 32692 – 32712.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31639 will signal the presence of sellers. The next downside target is a pivot at 31347. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this level. They are going to try to form a secondary higher bottom.

A drive through 31347 with strong volume, however, could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 30585 the best target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Strong Over 31639, Weak Under 31255

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower at the mid-session on Tuesday, but inside yesterday’s trading range. The chart pattern suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. It could also be signaling an upcoming transition from bearish to bullish.

At 17:34 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 31548, down 291 or -0.91%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $316.01, down $2.83 or -0.89%.

Fundamentally, investors are worried about supply chain problems and surging costs that are hurting corporate earnings and slowing manufacturing output. U.S. business activity slowed in May, with S&P Global attributing the decline in its U.S. Composite PMI Output to “elevated inflationary pressures, a further deterioration in supplier delivery times and weaker demand growth.”

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is edging higher. A trade through 32692 will change the main trend to up. A move through 30585 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend turned up on Monday, shifting momentum to the upside. A trade through 30585 will change the minor trend to down. A move through 31925 will strengthen the trend.

The E-mini Dow is currently testing a pair of pivots at 31255 and 31639.

The short-term range is 34027 to 30585. Its retracement zone at 32306 to 32712 is the next major upside target and potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests trader reaction to 31639 will determine the direction of the E-mini Dow into the close on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31639 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 31925 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a late session surge into 32306 – 32712.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31639 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is 31255. Countertrend traders could come in on the first test of this level, but if it fails then look for a possible retest of last week’s low at 30585.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Bullish Traders Targeting 32306 – 32712

June E-mini Dow futures are testing their high for the session late Monday as gains from banks and a rebound in megacap market leaders supported a broad-based rally following Wall Street’s longest streak of weekly declines since the dotcom bust more than 20 years ago.

At 20:15 GMT, the blue chip average is trading 31866, up 653 or +2.09%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $318.81, up $6.39 or +2.04%.

Although the E-mini Dow was helped by solid gain in tech and tech-adjacent growth stocks like Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp, it was the banks stocks that primarily drove the market’s momentum.

Dow component JPMorgan rose 7% after the bank said it expects to reach key return targets sooner than planned thanks to rising rates giving its lending business a boost. Citi and Bank of America also got a 7% boost, and Wells Fargo added more than 6.9%.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 32692 will change the main trend to up. A move through 30585 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is 32692 to 30585. Late Monday, the E-mini Dow crossed to the strong side of its pivot at 31639, making it support.

The short-term range is 34027 to 30585. Its retracement zone at 32306 to 32712 is the next upside target area. Inside this zone is the main top at 32692.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Monday and early Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 31639.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31639 will indicate the short-covering and the counter-trend buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the short-term 50% level at 32306.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31639 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into a minor pivot at 31255. Counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this level, but if it fails then look for a retest of last week’s minor bottom at 30585.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Buyers Trying to Form Reversal Bottom

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading nearly flat late in the session on Friday after mounting a spectacular rebound rally shortly after the benchmark S&P 500 briefly moved into bear market territory.

Worries about surging inflation and rising interest rates drove the blue chip average sharply lower early in the session, but then bargain hunters stepped in to stop the slide and reverse the market higher.

Despite the strong comeback, the market is still poised to close lower for the week. Furthermore, the fundamental outlook remains bleak with some investors looking for an imminent recession.

At 20:00 GMT, the June E-mini Dow is at 31232, up 30 or +0.10%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $312.42, down $0.01 or -0.00%.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 30585 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 32692 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 32692 to 30585. The nearest resistance is its pivot at 31639.

The short-term range is 34027 to 30585. Its retracement zone at 32306 to 32712 is the next target zone and potential resistance.

The intermediate resistance area is 33647 to 34369.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to 31202 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Friday and during Monday’s pre-market session.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31202 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a fast move into 31639. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 32306 the next key target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31202 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an intraday pullback into 31066. If this level fails, sellers could hit the market hard with 30585 the next major target.

Side Notes

Following the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, a close over 31202 will form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed on Monday, this could trigger the start of a 2 – 3 day counter-trend rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakness Led by Steep Drop in Cisco

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower after the cash market close on Thursday as investors continued to dump equities on fears Federal Reserve rate hikes to fight rapid inflation would top the economy into a recession.

Leading the E-mini Dow lower were shares of Cisco. The company is the latest to plunge on results with the tech bellwether down 13.7% on Thursday. Cisco said after the bell Wednesday that quarterly revenue fell short of analysts’ expectations and it warned revenue would disappoint in the current quarter.

At 20:23 GMT, the June E-mini Dow is trading 31196, down 244 or -0.78%. On Thursday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $313.15, down $2.40 or -0.76%.

In U.S. economic news, weekly jobless claims rose to 218,000 for the week-ending May 14, the Labor Department said Thursday, the latest hint that economic growth is slowing.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 30955 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 32692 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 32692 to 30955. Its 50% level or pivot at 31824 is the nearest resistance.

The short-term range is 34027 to 30955. Its retracement zone at 32491 to 32853 is a key resistance area.

Short-Term Outlook

We’re likely to continue to see further downside pressure with the bears eyeing the March 4, 2021 bottom at 29987 as their next target.

The nearest upside target for Friday’s premarket session is 31824. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of that level.

As we saw earlier in the week, the market is in the hands of strong sellers. This means they are going to sell rallies until the trend changes to up and the pattern is broken.

Bad news will give them an excuse to sell weakness too so don’t be surprised if they decide to pound this market lower through Thursday’s low at 30955.

As far as the buyers are concerned, there is no upside momentum which means they are going to wait until the market hits a previous value area. Unfortunately for investors, the nearest value is 29987.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Buyers Facing Challenge at 32588 – 32927

June E-mini Dow futures are slightly lower during Wednesday’s pre-market session as investors hope to extend the current three-day rally. The move in the futures market came as the recent sell-off in stocks appears to have paused.

During the previous cash market session, the Dow rose 431 points, or 1.3%. Investors are also hoping the blue chip average can break its seven week losing streak.

At 04:20 GMT, June E-mini Dow futures are trading 32530, down 51 or -0.16%. On Tuesday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $327.04, up $4.26 or +1.32%.

Tuesday Recap

The E-mini Dow finished sharply higher on Tuesday, lifted by components Apple and Microsoft as megacap growth stocks posted solid gains. Apple gained 2.54% and Microsoft was up 2.03%.

Not everything was rosy, however. Walmart shares dropped over 11% after the big-box retailer reported quarterly earnings that significantly missed Wall Street’s expectations. Company officials cited cost pressures from rising fuel prices, higher inventory levels and overstaffing.

In economic news, investors were happy with data showing U.S. retail sales increased 0.9% in April as consumers bought motor vehicles amid an improvement in supply and frequented restaurants.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 31148 will signal a resumption of the downtrend while a move through 34027 will change the trend to up.

The short-term range is 34027 to 31148. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at 32588 to 32927.

The intermediate range is 35413 to 31148. Its retracement zone at 33281 to 33784 is potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 32588 will determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average early Wednesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32588 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 32927. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level. Overtaking it, however, could trigger an acceleration into 33281.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32588 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a minimum 50% correction of the rally from 31148 – 32651. This makes 31899 the nearest target. This level will move up if buyers take out 32651.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.