E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Buyers Facing Challenge at 32588 – 32927

June E-mini Dow futures are slightly lower during Wednesday’s pre-market session as investors hope to extend the current three-day rally. The move in the futures market came as the recent sell-off in stocks appears to have paused.

During the previous cash market session, the Dow rose 431 points, or 1.3%. Investors are also hoping the blue chip average can break its seven week losing streak.

At 04:20 GMT, June E-mini Dow futures are trading 32530, down 51 or -0.16%. On Tuesday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $327.04, up $4.26 or +1.32%.

Tuesday Recap

The E-mini Dow finished sharply higher on Tuesday, lifted by components Apple and Microsoft as megacap growth stocks posted solid gains. Apple gained 2.54% and Microsoft was up 2.03%.

Not everything was rosy, however. Walmart shares dropped over 11% after the big-box retailer reported quarterly earnings that significantly missed Wall Street’s expectations. Company officials cited cost pressures from rising fuel prices, higher inventory levels and overstaffing.

In economic news, investors were happy with data showing U.S. retail sales increased 0.9% in April as consumers bought motor vehicles amid an improvement in supply and frequented restaurants.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 31148 will signal a resumption of the downtrend while a move through 34027 will change the trend to up.

The short-term range is 34027 to 31148. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at 32588 to 32927.

The intermediate range is 35413 to 31148. Its retracement zone at 33281 to 33784 is potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 32588 will determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average early Wednesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32588 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 32927. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level. Overtaking it, however, could trigger an acceleration into 33281.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32588 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a minimum 50% correction of the rally from 31148 – 32651. This makes 31899 the nearest target. This level will move up if buyers take out 32651.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

US Stock Markets – Following Price One Page At A Time to Understand The Full Story

The same is true of the market, as each day is like the reading of another page. The pages of a book make up chapters. These chapters in trading represent bull markets, bear markets, distribution and accumulation, and time frames of high and low volatility.

Unfortunately, in trading, we cannot skip to the end of the book to learn how everything turns out. However, as traders, we have learned that studying and remembering the past can pay great dividends.

Trading price in its rawest form is simply plotting and studying price without the use of moving averages, stochastics, RSI, or other technical indicators. This simplified but often overlooked methodology can offer everything a trader needs to be successful.

NASDAQ 100 Lower Lows & Lower High

QQQ – The Nasdaq 100 ETF has been making lower lows and lower highs. A longer-term analysis of price is showing us that the 2022 low is lower than the lowest price that the QQQ had traded in 2021. The QQQ in 2021 had a peak to trough range of 26.03%. So far in 2022, the QQQ has had a peak to trough range of 28.71%.

Therefore: Price is showing that QQQ is breaking down and volatility is expanding as it is greater than last year.

QQQ • INVESCO QQQ TRUST ETF • NASDAQ • 4-HOUR

QQQ Trading Price chart

S&P 500 Lower Lows & Lower Highs

SPY – The S&P 500 ETF has been making lower lows and lower highs. The SPY in 2022 has had a peak to trough range of 18.74%.

Therefore: Price is showing us SPY is breaking down and it appears to have put in a major top with confirmation being a new swing low.

SPY • SPDR S&P 500 ETR TRUST • ARCA • 4-HOUR

SPY Trading Price Chart

DOW 30 Lower Lows & Lower Highs

DIA – The Dow Jones Industrials 30 ETF has been making lower lows and lower highs. The DIA in 2022 has had a peak to trough range of 15.02%.

Therefore: Price is showing us DIA is breaking down and appears to have put in a major top with confirmation being a new swing low.

Note: the DIA is doing better than the QQQ or SPY as money flow is rotating out of previously high-performing stocks and seeking safety in blue-chip lower performing stocks.

DIA • SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ETF •ARCA • 4-HOUR

DIA Trading Price chart

US Dollar Higher Highs & Higher Lows

UUP – The US Dollar ETF has been making higher highs and higher lows. The UUP in 2022 has had a peak to trough range of 10.43%. UUP has also taken out the highest high that it made in 2021.

Therefore: The price is showing us UUP has broken out to the upside and is in a bull market with confirmation being a new swing high.

According to the 2019 Triennial Central Bank Survey conducted every three years by the Bank of International Settlements: trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019. The BIS report further noted the USD is associated with 88% of all trades, which is $5.8+ trillion in USD daily transactional volume.

The US Dollar continues to attract capital from investors all over the world. But this may prove to be a double-edged sword for US stocks. As capital flocks to the USD, this, in turn, hurts US multinationals as they need to convert their weak foreign currency profits back into USD.

The USD safe-haven trade may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in US stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will shrink or disappear.

UUP • INVESCO DB USD INDEX BULLISH FUND ETF • ARCA • 4-HOUR

UUP Trading Price Chart

Learn From Our Team of Seasoned Traders

In today’s market environment, it’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as necessary. Successful traders manage risk by utilizing stop-loss orders, rebalancing existing positions, reducing portfolio holdings, liquidating investments, and moving into cash.

Successfully managing our drawdowns ensures our trading success. The larger the loss, the more difficult it will be to make up. Consider the following:

  • A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover
  • A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover
  • A 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply return to break even.

Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown. A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks or a few months, while a 50% drawdown may take several years to recover.

Depending on a trader’s age, they may not have the time to wait on the recovery or the patience. Therefore, successful traders know it’s critical to keep their drawdowns within reason, as most of them learned this principle the hard way.

At TheTechnicalTraders.com, my team and I can do these things:

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Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

We invite you to join our group of active traders who invest conservatively together. They learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Focus Shifts to Retail Earnings Reports

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower early Monday after a tumultuous week ended with a strong recovery rally the previous session, ahead of a big earnings week for retailers.

Friday’s gains came as investors went into relief rally mode to cap off a bad week for stocks in which the benchmark S&P 500 index nearly descended into bear market territory.

At 07:08 GMT, the blue chip average is trading 31947, down 173 or -0.54%. On Friday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average EFT (DIA) settled at $322.25, up $4.61 or +1.45%.

Retail earnings season kicks off this week with several big-box retailers set to report results for the first quarter, including Dow components Walmart and Home Depot.

Investors will also have their eye on retail sales data this week, which could give them insight into how retailers are managing inflation, which remains near 40-year highs.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 31148 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 34027 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 34027 to 31148. Its retracement zone at 32588 to 32927 is the nearest upside target and potential resistance.

The short-term range is 35413 to 31148. Its retracement zone at 33281 to 33784 is additional resistance.

The major resistance is the price cluster at 33784 to 33928.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 31704 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones futures contract early Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31704 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 32259 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor retracement zone at 32588 – 32927. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers to re-emerge on the first test of this area.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31704 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 31148. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Bullish US CPI Data Will Put 32916 on Radar

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are extending their rebound on Wednesday and U.S. Treasury yields held below recent peaks ahead of U.S. consumer inflation data that will offer a guide to how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise rates. Some investors believe the data could show inflationary pressures in the world’s biggest economy are peaking.

At 11:39 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 32378, up 291 or +0.91%. On Tuesday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $321.78, down $0.82 or -0.25%.

Traders are looking for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to show an annual increase of 8.1%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the prior 8.5%, which was the hottest reading since December 1981.

The CPI report is pivotal because if inflation continues to print higher and higher the market will continue to sell off as this will increase the odds the Federal Reserve will adhere to a plan to raise rates at least 50 basis points in June and July, followed by a series of 25 basis point rate hikes at every meeting until at least the end of the year.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 31805 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 34027 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 34027 to 31805. Its retracement zone at 32916 to 33178 is the first upside target.

The short-term range is 35413 to 31805. Its retracement zone at 33609 to 34035 is the next resistance target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to 32234.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32234 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the 50% level at 32916.

Look for sellers on the first test of 32916, but overtaking it could extend the rally into the Fibonacci level at 33178. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the short-term 50% level at 33609.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32234 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of this week’s low at 31805. If this price fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the March 25, 2021 main bottom at 31539.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow in Position to Challenge Low of Year at 32086

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down early Monday on interest rate worries and concerns about global economic growth and recession. The U.S. futures markets are also being pressured by sharp declines in Asia and Europe, pointing to a lower cash market opening at 14:30 GMT.

“A series of rate hikes and hawkish communication came against a backdrop of plummeting Chinese and European activity, new plans for Russian energy bans and continued supply-side pressures,” warned analysts at Barclays.

“This creates the gloomy prospect of persistent inflation forcing central banks to hike rates despite sharply slowing growth.”

At 08:41 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 32392, down 417 or -1.27%. On Friday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $329.11, down $1.13 or -0.34%.

Besides concerns over interest rate hikes and recession worries, investors are also reacting to weak economic news out of China. According to a report released early Monday, wider COVID-19 lockdowns in China led to slower export growth in the world’s No. 2 economy in April.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Futhermore, the downtrend was reaffirmed when sellers took out 32358 earlier in the session.

The next target is the main bottom at 32218. A trade through 34027 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 32086 to 35413. The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 33357 to 33750, making it resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average early Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 32809.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32809 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 32335 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This will make this year’s main bottoms at 32218 and 32086 the primary targets.

The February 24 main bottom at 32086 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the March 25, 2021 main bottom at 31539 the next major target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32809 will signal the presence of buyers. As a result, look for a possible intraday surge into the minor pivot at 33181.

Sellers could come in on the first test of 33181. However, if buyers can overcome this level then the rally could possibly extend into the short-term Fibonacci level at 33357.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow: Counter-Trend Buyers Defending Multi-Year Low at 4020.50

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower shortly after the cash market close on Friday. Sellers controlled the market early in the session, but began to cover when buyers began to defend the weekly low at 4056.00.

The price action suggests traders are still trying to assess the impact of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s less-hawkish comments on Wednesday against a market that seems to believe the central bank is going to have to be more aggressive in its battle to combat inflation.

At 20:00 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 4108.50, down 34.75 or -0.84%. Just a short while ago, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $329.11, down $1.13 or -0.34%.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4056.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 4303.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 4303.50 to 4056.00. The index is currently trading on the weak side of its pivot at 4179.75, making it resistance. Second and third resistance levels come in at 4289.50 and 4343.50, respectively.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 4107.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4107.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum into the close then look for a retest of the intraday low at 4062.00. If this fails then look for a drive into the main bottom at 4056.00, followed by the May 12, 2021 main bottom at 4020.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4107.75 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into the minor pivot at 4179.75.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

June E-mini Dow Trading on Weak Side of 33357 – 33750 Retracement Zone

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower in overnight trading after posting a lower close the previous session following a wicked intraday reversal to the downside. When the dust finally cleared on Thursday, the blue chip average had posted its worst day since 2020.

At 02:04 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 32823, down 87 or -0.26%. On Thursday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $330.36, down $10.23 or -3.00%.

Thursday’s Recap

The June E-mini Dow pulled back sharply on Thursday, completely erasing a rally from the prior session in a stunning reversal that delivered investors one of the worst days in two years.

Reuters reported that the broad sell-off the previous session was fueled by a plunge in investor sentiment in the face of concerns that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike on Wednesday would not be enough to tame surging inflation.

Looking Ahead…

Investors are looking ahead to the April jobs report, set for release Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect employers added 400,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls, down slightly from 431,000 in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% in April, down from 3.6% in March, according to Dow Jones.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 32358 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 35413 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 34038 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The nearest resistance is the short-term Fibonacci level at 33357, followed by the short-term 50% level at 33750.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 33193.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33192 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the main bottom at 32358, followed by another main bottom at 32218.

The main target is the February 24 main bottom at 32086. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the March 25, 2021 main bottom at 31539.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33192 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of 33357. Overtaking this level will be a sign of strength with the next target a resistance cluster at 33750 – 33886.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Strengthens Over 33357, Weakens Under 33198

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging higher shortly before the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its monetary policy and interest rate decisions on Wednesday. Helping to put a cap on gains are a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a widely expected interest-rate hike by the Fed that could be the biggest since 2000.

At 17:09 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33161, up 128 or +0.39%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $332.33, up $1.08 or +0.33%.

Federal Reserve On-Tap

The Federal Reserve will release its policy statement at 18:00 GMT. Fed policymakers have widely telegraphed a double-barreled decision that would lift the Fed’s short-term target policy rate to a range between 0.75% and 1%, and set in motion a plan to trim its $9 trillion balance sheet.

Keep an Eye on Bank Stocks

Bank stocks were up 0.3% after U.S. Treasury two-year yields, the most sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, soared to their highest since November 2018. The benchmark 10-year yield topped 3% for a third consecutive day.

In response to the widely expected rate hike, Dow bank stock JPMorgan Chase & Co is up 1.12%. Other financial related stocks to watch include Goldman Sachs Group, American Express and Visa.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since Monday. A trade through 35413 will change the main trend to up. A move through 32358 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 33968 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The minor range is 34038 to 32358. Its pivot at 33198 is the nearest resistance. It is followed by a short-term Fibonacci level at 33357. Overtaking this price could trigger an acceleration into a resistance cluster at 33750 to 33886.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to 33198 and 33357.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33198 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into 32806. If this level fails then look for a retest of 32358.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33357 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target area the resistance cluster at 33750 – 33886.

Side Notes

I’m leaning toward “Sell the Rumor, Buy the Fact”. Unless Fed Chair Powell is extremely hawkish in his post-announcement speech.

E-mini Dow Tracking Higher Following Monday’s Dramatic Reversal Bottom

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging higher early Tuesday after posting a dramatic reversal to the upside the previous session.

There was no particular reason for the market’s rebound, but some attributed it to profit-taking and position-squaring ahead of the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting on Tuesday.

In my opinion, it doesn’t make much sense to take on new positions ahead of the Fed because the meeting carries with it a lot of uncertainty.

At 02:52 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33104, up 124 or +0.38%. On Monday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF settled at 330.84, up 1.15 or +0.35%.

JOLTS Report on Tap

Wall Street is largely expecting interest rates to be raised 50 basis points at the Fed meeting. Some investors believe expectations of aggressive monetary tightening from the central bank are already priced into the markets. If that is the case then we could be looking at a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” situation.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, traders will have the opportunity to react to the latest reading of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) data at 14:00 GMT. Data on auto sales for April will also be released on Tuesday.

On Monday, U.S. factory activity grew at its slowest pace in more than 1-1/2 years in April amid a rise in workers quitting their jobs, and manufacturers are becoming more anxious about supply over the summer because of China’s zero tolerance COVID-19 policy.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum could shift to the upside if Monday’s closing price reversal bottom is confirmed.

A trade through 33145 will confirm the chart pattern, while a move through 32358 will negate the bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 35413 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through the pair of minor tops at 33968 and 34038 will change the minor trend to up. This will also confirm the shift in momentum.

The nearest resistance zone is 33198 to 33357. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 33750 – 33886 the next target area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 32752 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 35752 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 33198 – 33357.

Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of 33198 – 33357. However, overtaking 33357 could trigger an acceleration into 33750 – 33886 over the near-term.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 35751 will signal the presence of sellers. This could generate the momentum needed to challenge yesterday’s low at 32358. Additional support is a pair of main bottoms at 32218 and 32086.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Plunges on Fed Rate Hike Fears, Global Economic Uncertainies

June E-mini Dow Jones industrial Average futures are plunging shortly after the cash market close on Friday as investors succumbed to end of the month selling pressure tied to a steep sell-off in shares of Amazon, worries over Fed rate hikes, a contraction in the economy, persistent inflation and COVID-related lockdowns in China.

At 20:03 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 32852, down 976 or -2.89%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $329.69, down $9.60 or -2.83%.

Weak Sentiment Drives Tech Stocks Lower

In stock related news, Friday wrapped up one of the busiest week for the first-quarter earnings season and a particularly intense one for tech companies, which drove investor sentiment throughout the week.

Dow components Apple and Intel were huge drags on the blue chip average on Friday. Apple shares fell about 3.7% after management said supply chain constraints could hinder fiscal third-quarter revenue. Intel fell 6.9% after the company issued weak guidance for its fiscal second quarter.

Sharp Rise in Inflation Supports Next Week’s Fed Rate Hike

A measure that the Federal Reserve focuses on to gauge inflation rose in March, likely cementing the central bank’s intention to hike interest rates by half a percentage at its May 3-4 monetary policy meeting.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which measures costs that consumers pay across a wide swath of items and accounts for how behavior changes in response to market dynamics, increased 5.2% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Including volatile food and energy prices, the PCE index accelerated by 6.6%, the fastest pace since January 1982. Headline inflation was up 0.9% from February, much faster than the previous 0.5% increase.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed when sellers took out the previous low of the week at 33015. A trade through 35413 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 33968 and 34038 will change the main trend to up. This will also shift the momentum.

Short-Term Outlook

Investors are still looking for a value area to stop the price slide, while sellers are signaling stocks are overvalued.

The downside momentum late Friday suggests further liquidation into the futures close could reach a series of bottoms at 32578, 32218 and 32086.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

June E-mini Dow Struggling to Build Support Base at 33750 – 33357

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower in a tight overnight trading range on Friday. The price action reflects an overall soft-tone in the stock market led by weakness in the technology sector, which retreated following disappointing earnings from Amazon and Apple.

At 08:49 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones futures are trading 33783, down 45 or -0.13%. On Thursday, the SPDR Dow Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $339.37, up $6.34 or +1.90%.

Early Stock Performances

Adding to the Dow’s early weakness is a more than 2% drop in shares of Apple in pre-opening trading. Dow component Apple initially got a lift after a big earnings beat but turned lower after CFO Luca Maestri said supply chain constraints could hinder fiscal third-quarter revenue.

Intel, another Dow constituent, also reported earnings Thursday evening. The stock fell more than 3% in extended trading after the company issued weak guidance for its fiscal second quarter.

Looking Ahead …

On Friday, investors will get the opportunity to react to fresh data on personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is also due out at 14:00 GMT.

Friday will bring a quieter day of earnings to end the week. Honeywell, Bristol-Myers Squibb are on deck before the bell. Energy companies Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Phillips 66 will also report.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted slightly to the upside on Thursday.

A trade through 33015 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 35413 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 34038 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

On the downside, the nearest support is a short-term 50% level at 33750, a minor pivot at 33527 and a short-term Fibonacci level at 33357.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a pivot at 34214 and the main retracement zone at 34397 to 34942.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 33750.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33750 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor top at 34038.

Overtaking 34038 will shift momentum to the upside with 34397 the next key target.

Since the main trend is down, sellers could try to stop the rally between 34214 and 34397.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33750 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 33527, followed by 33357.

The selling pressure could start to open up under 33357, leading to a potential acceleration to the downside under 33015.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-Mini Dow: Expecting Choppy Trade Ahead of Apple Earnings

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging higher early Wednesday, following yesterday’s steep sell-off, which was fueled by concerns of an economic slowdown. Helping to soften the blow from Tuesday’s plunge was Microsoft. The company announced earnings after the bell that beat across the board.

At 06:23 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33420, up 260 or +0.78%. On Tuesday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $332.29, down $8.27 or -2.43%.

Microsoft Beat Expectations on Top and Bottom Lines

Microsoft shares surged as much as 6% in extended trading on Tuesday after the software maker issued fiscal third-quarter earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations and an optimistic outlook for the current quarter.

More Volatility Ahead

Dow components Apple and Boeing are set to report earnings on Wednesday. Additionally, on the economic front, investors will be watching for the latest data on weekly mortgage applications, international trade and pending home sales.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 33081 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 35413 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is down. A change through 34038 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is 32086 to 35413. The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 33357 to 33750, making it resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average early Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 33357.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33357 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the short-term 50% level at 33750. Overtaking this level will put the E-mini Dow in a position to challenge the minor top at 34038.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33357 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of yesterday’s low at 33081.

Taking out 33081 will indicate the sellers have returned. This could trigger a steep decline into the next main bottom at 32578.

Side Notes

We expect to see some short-covering and position-squaring throughout the day ahead of the Apple earnings report. We don’t think new buyers are going to emerge ahead of those numbers.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Poised to Reverse Earlier Losses

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are slightly lower late in the session on Monday, but edging closer to breakeven after recovering from steep early session weakness. The catalyst driving the blue chip index lower overnight was a plunge in Asian and European stock markets.

Fears over China’s COVID-19 outbreaks spooked investors already worried about faster U.S. interest rate hikes denting economic growth. These worries reverberated across world markets, with Chinese shares marking their biggest slump since pandemic selling in February 2020. Meanwhile, European stocks fell to their lowest level in over a month on fears of tighter restrictions in China.

At 19:13 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33712, down 16 or -0.05%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $340.54, up $2.27 or +0.67%.

In other news, Brent and WTI crude oil dropped almost 5%. This was a drag on Dow component Chevron Corp, which fell more than 4%.

Investors were also on edge at the start of a week that will see megacap companies like Dow components Microsoft Corp and Apple Inc publish quarterly results.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low of 33230 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 35413 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 32086 to 35413. The E-mini Dow is currently testing its retracement zone at 33750 to 33357.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. Its retracement zone at 34397 to 34942 is major resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 33750.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33750 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for a surge into a minor pivot at 34322. Overtaking this level could extend the rally into the main 50% level at 34397.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33750 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a retest of the Fibonacci level at 33357.

The intraday low at 33230 would become the next target if 33357 fails as support. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with sellers looking to test the March 15 main bottom at 32578.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow: Trade Through 34002 Changes Main Trend to Down

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down sharply shortly after the mid-session on Friday, putting it in a position to post a consecutive weekly decline, as investors assessed a slew of corporate earnings reports and the impact of rising interest rates.

At 17:55 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34015, down 694 or -2.00%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is at $338.32, down $9.39 or -2.70%.

Investors Spooked by Hawkish Federal Reserve

Concerns about risks from interest rate hikes continued to reverberate after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot on Thursday, where he backed moving more quickly to combat inflation and said a 50-basis point increase would be “on the table” when the Fed meets in May.

US Business Activity Eases

U.S. business activity slowed in April as soaring costs for raw materials, fuel and labor pushed input prices to a record high, according to a survey on Friday, which also showed an ebb in sentiment at the start of the second quarter, according to Reuters.

The survey also showed businesses were passing on the higher cost burdens to consumers, with its measure of prices for goods and services produced by businesses hitting an all-time high.

The record input and output prices suggest inflation could remain uncomfortably high, warranting aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve.

With price pressures mounting, business sentiment slipped to a six-month low in April. The ebb in sentiment was across the manufacturing and services industries.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending lower. A trade through 34002 will change the main trend to down. A move through 35413 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. It changed to down earlier today when sellers took out the minor bottom at 34179. The change in trend reaffirmed the momentum shift.

Momentum first shifted lower shortly after the opening when sellers confirmed the previous session’s closing price reversal top.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 34397 to 34942, making it resistance.

The short-term range is 32086 35413. Its retracement zone at 33750 to 33357 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34397.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34397 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 34002 will change the main trend to down, which should create the downside momentum needed to challenge 33750 to 33357.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34397 will signal the return of buyers. This would put the market in a position to possibly challenge 34942 late in the session.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow: Buyers Lightening Up Ahead of Powell Speech

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher at the mid-session on Thursday, even after giving back more than half of its earlier gains. At the opening, buyers were driven by quarterly earnings reports, but as we approached the mid-session, prices began to pull back in anticipation of a policy speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

At 15:49 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were trading 35187, up 108 or +0.31%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) was at $352.64, up $1.11 or +0.32%.

In economic news, initial claims came in slightly higher than expected at 184,000 for the week-ending April 16, showing a decline of 2,000. Dow Jones analysts estimated 182,000 first-time claims.

In other news, investors were looking to a speech from Powell, who will talk at 17:00 GMT during the International Monetary Fund Debate on the Global Economy. The discussion will be moderated by CNBC’s Sara Eisen.

Traders are hoping Powell gives some insight on the direction of interest rates after the market priced in a series of aggressive interest rate increases, while several Fed officials in recent days have talked down making any dramatic moves.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

 Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high of 35413 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through 34002 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 34179 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift the momentum lower.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the bullish side of its retracement zone at 34942 to 34397, making it support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 35079.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 35079 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a retest of the intraday high at 35413. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create the momentum needed to challenge the February 9 main top at 35649.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 35079 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late session break into the main Fibonacci support at 34942. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this level, but if it fails then be prepared for increased selling pressure into the main 50% level at 34397.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-Mini Dow Trading on Strong Side of Main Retracement Zone

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening on Wednesday as investors shrugged off disappointing Netflix earnings that pressured the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite. Meanwhile, the blue chip average is being underpinned by strong performances by Procter & Gamble and International Business Machines.

At 12:27 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34966, up 125 or +0.36%. On Tuesday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $349.14, up $5.04 or +1.47%.

In stock related news, Procter & Gamble’s better-than-expected results sent the stock up about 1%. Procter also hiked its full-year revenue guidance. Shares of IBM, another Dow component, rose more than 1% following a beat on earnings and revenue.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It turned up on Tuesday when buyers took out the previous main top at 34820. A trade through 34002 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 34179 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The market is currently inching to the strong side of its retracement zone at 34942 to 34397.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34942.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34942 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the next main top at 35015 will reaffirm the uptrend. This could trigger an acceleration into the March 29 main top at 35281. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the February 9 main top at 35649 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34942 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then we could see a break into the 50% level at 34397.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Flatlining on 50% Level Ahead of Earnings Reports

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging higher early Tuesday after posting a mixed trade, lower close the previous session. Blue chip stocks were choppy on Monday as investors contrasted Bank of America’s positive earnings with surging bond yields ahead of further earnings cues this week.

At 05:00 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34418, up 105 or +0.31%. On Monday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF settled at $344.12, down $0.17 or -0.05%.

Monday Recap

Bank of America rounded out earnings season for the big Wall Street banks, reporting strong growth in its consumer lending business, although its investment banking unit took a hit from a slowdown in deal making.

The BoA news translated into strong gains for financial stocks and Dow components Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and American Express which rose 2.56%, 1.86% and 1.83%, respectively.

Higher crude oil prices helped boost shares of Chevron Corp 1.34%, while the technology sector was supported by Microsoft which gained 0.25%.

Looking Ahead …

Investors are bracing for a slew of earnings that will help them assess the impact of the Ukraine war and a spike in inflation on company financials. Dow components Johnson & Johnson and International Business Machines are both scheduled to report this week.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 34820 will change the main trend to up. A move through 34002 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 34794 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The market is currently straddling its 50% level at 34397.

The short-term range is 32086 to 35281. Its retracement zone at 33678 to 33301 is the nearest support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 34397.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34397 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move starts to attract buyers then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor top at 34794, the main top at 34820 and the main Fibonacci level at 34942.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34397 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the move to possibly extend into the minor bottom at 34002.

Taking out 34002 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the short-term retracement zone at 33678 to 33301.

Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this retracement zone. Counter-trend buyers could try to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom. If 33301 fails as support, however, then look for an acceleration to the downside with 32578 the first major target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Major Indexes Continue To Be Outperformed By Energy & Metals

ETFs like XOP (S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production), XME (S&P Metals & Mining), and XLU (Utilities) have been experiencing capital inflows. At the same time, other ETFs such as DIA (30-Industrials), SPY (500-Large Caps), IWM (2000-Small Caps), IYT (Transports), and QQQ (100-Nasdaq Largest Non-Financial) are still in the red for the year.

Our positions in energy and precious metal ETFs netted us a positive return, while our recent trades in the major stock index ETFs had already booked partial position profits, with the remainder of the positions stopping out for a small break-even profit.

As we experience record inflation numbers reported and central banks raising their lending rates, we are keeping our cash ready and closely monitoring key ETF sectors as compared to the major stock index benchmarks for clues regarding our location within the overall economic cycle.

SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST – DAILY SECTOR COMPARISON CHART

Major Indexes SPY

TheTechnicalTraders – TradingView

TACTICAL ETFs FOR ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES

From time to time, we get questions from our subscribers regarding inverse and leveraged ETFs. Inverse and/or leveraged ETFs are not appropriate for everyone. However, for some experienced traders, these tactical ETFs can provide alternative strategies for use in a bear market.

An inverse ETF is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) constructed by using various derivatives to profit from a decline in the value of an underlying benchmark. Inverse ETFs allow investors to make money when the market or the underlying index declines, but without having to sell anything short.

A leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a marketable security that uses financial derivatives and debt to amplify the returns of an underlying index. While a traditional exchange-traded fund typically tracks the securities in its underlying index on a 1:1 basis, a leverage ETF may be structured for a 2:1 or even a 3:1 ratio.

These ETFs listed below track the underlying S&P 500 benchmark that represents 500 US large caps as selected by S&P’s Index Committee. These ETFs are examples of both inverse and leveraged ETFs:

  • SPY vs. SH (1:1 or 1x leverage) – SPY (Bull) is the most recognized ETF and is typically listed in the top ETFs for the largest AUM and greatest trading volume. SH (Bear) provides 1:1 inverse exposure to the S&P 500.
  • SSO vs. SDS (2:1 or 2x leverage) – SSO (Bull) seeks a daily 2x return of the S&P 500. SDS (Bear) provides 2:1 inverse exposure to the S&P 500.
  • UPRO vs. SPXU (3:1 or 3x leverage) – UPRO (Bull) seeks a daily 3x return of the S&P 500. SPXU (Bear provides 3:1 inverse exposure to the S&P 500.

SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST – DAILY S&P 500 COMPARISON CHART

The following chart gives us a visual of how the ETFs mentioned above are performing against each other over the past 15-months. It should be noted that inverse ETFs carry unique risks that traders should be aware of before participating in them. Some of the risks associated with inverse ETFs are compounding risk, derivative securities risk, correlation risk, and short sale exposure risk.

Major Indexes SPY

TheTechnicalTraders – TradingView

KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDED

It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered in March, all have now been closed at a profit! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.

Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.

WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?

Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.

Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?

We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

June E-Mini Dow Pressured by Mixed Chase Earnings Data

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are attempting to rebound on Wednesday following a volatile two-sided trade and lower close the previous session. The price action suggests investors are attempting to look past the highest consumer inflation numbers in decades and focus on the start of first quarter earnings reporting season.

At 12:03 GMT, the June E-mini Dow futures contract is trading 34176, up 37 or +0.11%. On Tuesday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) settled at $342.19, down $1.01 or -0.29%.

Earnings Season Begins with Results from JPMorgan Chase

First quarter earnings reporting season kicked off Wednesday and analysts have tempered their expectations amid rising commodity costs, the war in Ukraine and the lingering pandemic.

As far as Dow component stocks are concerned, JPMorgan Chase shares were slightly lower in premarket trading after the bank reported mixed results. JPMorgan reported a $524 million hit in the quarter following market upheavals related to Russia sanctions that lowered earnings per share by 13 cents. But JPMorgan managed to report $31.59 billion in revenue for the period, slightly more than expected by analysts. It also reported a new $30 billion buyback program.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 34002 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 34820 will change the main trend to up.

The market is also trading on the strong side of its main retracement zone at 34397 to 34942, making it resistance.

The short-term range is 32086 to 35281. Its retracement zone at 33684 to 33306 is the primarily downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34397.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34397 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 34002 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the short-term retracement zone at 33684 to 33306.

Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of 33684 to 33306. If 33306 fails then look for the start of an acceleration to the downside with 32578 the next likely target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34397 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the main top at 34820.

Taking out 34820 will change the main trend to up, but sellers could reemerge on a test of 34942 to 35015.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Carried Higher by Strong Banking Sector

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures closed higher on Friday, boosted by a jump in baking stocks at the end of a volatile week marked by concerns around aggressive move by the U.S. Federal Reserve to tame nearly out of control inflation.

Rate-sensitive lenders and Dow components Goldman Sachs Group Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 2.3% and 1.83%, respectively. Other financial related stocks also improved with American Express up 0.72% and Visa Inc gaining 0.38%.

On Friday, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 34613, up 123 or +0.36%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) finished at $347.38, up $1.41 or +0.41%.

The banking stocks were supported by the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which hit its highest level since March 2019.

Big U.S. banks, which kick off the first quarter results season this week, are expected to show a sharp decline in earnings from a year earlier, when they benefited from exceptionally strong deal-making and trading, and funds set aside for loan losses being released.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 35015 will change the main trend to up. A move through 34093 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The E-mini Dow settled inside its retracement zone at 34397 to 34942. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is 32086 to 35281. Its retracement zone at 33684 to 33306 is the primary downside target and potential support.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average early Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34397.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34397 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the Fibonacci level at 34942.

Overtaking 34942 could trigger a breakout over 35015, turning the main trend to up with 35281 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34397 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the main bottom at 34093.

Taking out 34093 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into 33684 to 33306. Watch for aggressive counter-trend buyers on the first test of this zone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.