Bitcoin’s Never-ending Search for a Bottom

Market Picture

Bitcoin closed last week with a new formal decline, losing $100 to $16490. At the start of trading on Monday, it loses another $360 to $16150. The week starts with a subdued risk appetite on global markets due to China unrest. Ethereum is performing better, adding 3.3% over the week to $1170. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 are changing from -2.5% (Polkadot) to 22.2% (Dogecoin).

Bitcoin daily chart

Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, was up 2% for the week, to $817bn. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index rose to 28 by Monday, moving into “fear” versus “extreme fear” at 21 a week earlier.

Bitcoin has updated two-year lows below $15,500 in the past week on news of the possible bankruptcy of cryptocurrency lending service Genesis Global Capital. Bitcoin is under pressure from institutionalists whose risk appetite is firmly tied to stock markets. Bitcoin continues to look for a bottom from which it can push back, but the negative external backdrop is not yet conducive to buying.

News Background

According to Barron’s, Genesis Global Capital has been the subject of an investigation by US regulators over the suspension of withdrawals and the company’s liquidity crisis. It is unclear whether US federal regulators are involved, but at the very least, Alabama state supervisory agencies are investigating.

The DeFi-project Ardana team from the Cardano blockchain ecosystem has said it has suspended its development due to “uncertainty over funding and the timing of the project”.

Bloomberg, a news agency, reports that Cryptocurrency lender Matrixport is seeking funding for $100 million. And while the company says the moves have nothing to do with a lack of liquidity, investors are little reassured.

Analysis of Bitcoin transactions helped British police arrest over 100 people in the biggest anti-fraud operation in UK history, led by Scotland Yard. The iSpoof website was taken down, and phone fraud suspects were caught.

by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich

Altcoins Outpace Bitcoin in Growth

Market Picture

Bitcoin daily chart

Bitcoin has added another 3.3% in the past 24 hours to $20.8K, bringing the gain over the past seven days to 9%. Ethereum is growing at a higher rate, reaching $1570 (+5.8% in 24 hours and 21% in 7 days).

Dogecoin daily chart

Over the last day, major altcoins added between 1.5% (DOT) and 21% (DOGE). According to CoinMarketCap estimates, total cryptocurrency capitalisation surpassed the $1 trillion mark, up 3.3% on the day.

Dogecoin was again buying from Twitter’s acquisition by Elon Musk, who had previously said he might add the coin to pay for the social network’s services. However, the latest rise looks more like a ‘buy rumour’ pattern, and it can’t be ruled out that the pump will soon turn into a dump.

News Background

Bloomberg exchange strategist Mike McGlone is confident that the Ethereum network’s successful transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm has laid the foundation for steady growth in the second-capitalised cryptocurrency.

The first US bitcoin futures ETF from ProShares lost a record $1.2bn in investor funds the year after launch. This was the worst debut result in the history of the exchange-traded fund industry. Despite this, several investors retain faith in BTC – the ProShares Bitcoin-ETF has seen net inflows of $87 million in the past six months.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the capitalisation of Andreessen Horowitz, the largest crypto venture capital fund, fell by 40% in the year’s first half.

The UK Parliament voted to amend the Financial Services and Markets Bill to mandate the regulation of cryptocurrencies as financial instruments.

by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH Bucks the Bearish Trend

Key Insights:

  • It was a bearish Monday to Saturday, with the total crypto market cap falling by $5.45 billion (-0.62%) to $880.31 billion.
  • US economic indicators sent the crypto market south before a shift in sentiment toward Fed monetary policy delivered late support.
  • Technical indicators remain bearish, with Fed fear and the war in Ukraine leaving the crypto market under pressure.

Monday to Saturday, the crypto market cap fell by $5.45 billion to $880.31 billion. The crypto market had fallen by $20.1 billion in the week prior. Another full-week loss would mark the fifth weekly decline in six weeks, leaving the crypto market down more than $1,300 billion (60%) year-to-date.

Crypto market sits well below $1 trillion
Crypto Market Cap Daily Chart 231022

US economic indicators sent the crypto market to a Friday low of $851.6 billion before steadying.

On Tuesday, US industrial production figures beat forecasts, with US jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index numbers delivering another blow on Thursday.

With the markets focused on inflation and labor market conditions, the Philly Fed Employment Index jumped from 12.0 to 28.5. Jobless claims also impressed, falling from 226k to 214k in the week ending October 14.

Going into the Thursday numbers, FOMC member chatter continued to fuel bets of 75-basis point Fed rate hikes in November and December.

However, sentiment shifted on Friday Fed talk of taking its foot off the gas drive demand for riskier assets. On Friday, the NASDAQ 100 ended a choppy week with a 2.31% rally, quashing hopes of the crypto market decoupling from the US markets.

According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75-basis point December rate hike sits at 45.6%, down from 75.4% on Thursday. With the markets having baked in a 75-basis point hike for November, December remains the focal point. However, economic data could deliver some uncertainty in the week ahead.

NASDAQ correlation
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 231022

Going into the Sunday session, cardano (ADA), polkadot (DOT), and solana (SOL) were in negative territory for the week, while ethereum (ETH) saw green.

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Saturday, ADA was down 5.39% to 0.351. A mixed start to the week saw ADA rise to a Monday high of $0.376 before sliding to a new 2022 and Friday low of $0.330. However, a Friday rebound and a bullish Saturday reduced the deficit for the week.

Going into the Saturday session, Input Output HK (IOHK) updates remained ADA negative. However, network news from Saturday delivered much-needed support.

On Saturday, Citaldoc announced the first ADA transaction on its telemedicine platform.

Citaldoc said,

“We are getting emotional right now. First ADA transaction in our telemedicine platform.”

Citaldoc provided the details of the test transaction of 10,000 ADA, which had a transaction fee of just 0.17 ADA (0.0017%).

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.50 will be the key. However, a fall through the October low of $0.330 would give the bears a look at sub-$0.300.

ADA bearish trend continues.
ADAUSD 231022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.360. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA ($0.360) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($0.377) to target $0.400. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.403. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.360) would leave sub-$0.300 in play.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 231022 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT was down by 5.49% to $5.85, Monday through Saturday.

Tracking the broader market, DOT rose to a Tuesday high of $6.30 before sliding to a Friday low of $5.74. A partial recovery on Friday and a bullish Saturday reduced the deficit.

News of Parity Technologies CEO and Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood stepping down left DOT on the back foot. The bearish week also saw Dot give up the number 11 spot by market cap to Polygon (MATIC). Parity is the parent company of the Polkadot Ecosystem.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT will have to avoid the October low of $5.65 to prevent a continued fall to sub-$5.00.

DOT continues fall towards sub-$5.00.
DOTUSD 231022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.02. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA sliding back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.02) and the 100-day EMA ($6.13) to target the 200-day EMA ($6.35) and the October high of $6.54. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at sub-$5.00.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 231022 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH bucked the trend, Monday to Saturday, rising by 0.61% to $1,314.

Tracking the broader market, ETH rose to a Tuesday high of $1,342 before sliding to a Friday low of $1,254. However, a Friday recovery and a bullish Saturday session saw ETH return to $1,300.

There were no key events to deliver ETH price action, leaving external market forces to influence.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,500 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 to target $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the October low of $1,190 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

ETH finds modest support.
ETHUSD 231022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat at the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,311. However, the 50-day EMA closed the gap on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price positives.

An ETH breakout from the 100-day EMA ($1,311) would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($1,348) and $1,350. A fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,303) would bring the October low of $1,190 into view.

EMAs remain bearish.
ETHUSD 231022 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

SOL was down 7.12% to $28.0075, Monday through Saturday.

Following the broader market trend, SOL rose to a Tuesday high of $31.4850 before sliding to a new October low of $26.8300. However, finding Friday support, SOL returned to $28 to reduce the deficit.

Solana network outages continue to deliver downward price pressure, with the Mango Markets hack another bearish SOL event. Solana’s total value locked (TVL) reflected the bearish sentiment, falling to sub-$900 million in the week.

SOL TVL slides to sub-$900 million
SOL TVL 231022 – DeFi Llama

A fix to the network outage issues would be a step in the right direction. Jump Crypto aims to resolve the outage issues with a new validator client to increase the throughput and network reliability.

Looking at the trends, an SOL move through the September high of $39.00 to $50 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $50. A resolution to the network outages and a pickup in total value locked would contribute to a recovery from current levels.

However, a fall through the October low of $26.8300 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.7825 in view.

SOL on the back foot.
SOLUSD 231022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $29.2636. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were price negatives.

An SOL move through the 50-day EMA ($29.2636) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($30.2867) to target the 200-day EMA ($31.4955). However, a failure to break through the 50-day EMA would leave the current-year low of $25.7825 in view.

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 231022 4 Hourly Chart

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ADA and SOL Lead a Bearish Week

Key Insights:

  • It was a bearish Monday to Saturday, with the total crypto market cap falling by $30.4 billion to $876.3 billion.
  • US economic indicators and rising bets of 75-basis point Fed rate hikes in November and December weighed.
  • Technical indicators are bearish, with increased uncertainty about the economic outlook adding further pressure.

Monday to Saturday, the crypto market cap fell by $30.4 billion to $876.3 billion, reversing a $17.0 billion rise from the previous week.

Crypto market hits reverse.
Total Market Cap 161022 Daily Chart

Russian missile strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine and Fed fear kicked off a bearish week. The market cap fell by $18.3 billion on Monday.

US economic indicators added to the bearish mood. US wholesale and consumer price inflation figures fueled bets of more hawkish Fed hikes in November and December.

US retail sales and consumer sentiment figures added fuel to the Fed fire, with sustained consumer spending, a pickup in consumer confidence, and consumer sentiment towards inflation delivering a bearish session.

This morning, the probability of a 75-basis point hike in November stood at 97.2% and 69.8% for December. Last week, the chance of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 23.4%.

FOMC meeting minutes from mid-week provided some brief relief. The minutes revealed the willingness of some members to take their foot off the gas if economic conditions deteriorate.

NASDAQ correlation
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 161022 Daily Chart

Going into the Sunday session, cardano (ADA), ethereum (ETH), polkadot (DOT), and solana (SOL) were all in negative territory for the week.

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Saturday, ADA was down 13.95% to 0.364. Bearish throughout the week, ADA slid from a Monday high of $0.427 to a Thursday and a new October low of $0.350. Despite bearish Friday and Saturday sessions, ADA briefly recovered to $0.382 before returning to the deep red.

Network updates remained bearish, with post-Vasil hard fork project numbers delivering downward price pressures.

On Friday, Input Output HK shared the weekly development report as of October 14. Network highlights from the weekly development report included,

  • Ongoing work on core technology improvements.
  • Upcoming Daedalus release to resolve the min-fee calculation issue.
  • 102 projects launched on Cardano, unchanged from the previous week.
  • 1,120 projects are building on Cardano, up by three from the previous week.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the October low of $0.350 would give the bears a look at sub-$0.300.

ADA under pressure.
ADAUSD 161022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.390. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA sliding back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA ($0.390) would support a return to $0.400 to bring the 100-day EMA ($0.408) into view. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.429. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.390) would leave sub-$0.300 in play.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 161022 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT was down by 6.64% to $6.05, Monday through Saturday.

A bearish week saw DOT fall from a Monday high of $6.54 to a Thursday and a new October low of $5.65. However, finding broader crypto market support, DOT briefly revisited $6.27 before easing back to sub-$6.10.

Network updates failed to deliver support, despite a pickup in development activity. The Polkadot network provided a detailed report on network activity that included total project numbers on the Polkadot and Kusama ecosystems.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT will have to avoid the week’s low of $5.65 to prevent a continued fall to sub-$5.00.

DOT under pressure.
DOTUSD 161022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.19. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA easing back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.19) and the 100-day EMA ($6.29) to support a return to $6.50. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at sub-$5.00.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 161022 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bearish Monday to Saturday, falling by 3.63% to $1,275.

Tracking the broader market, ETH fell to a Thursday and October low of $1,190 before finding support. A bullish Thursday saw ETH strike a Friday high of $1,344 before falling back into the red.

There were no major network updates to deliver ETH price support, leaving ETH in the hands of US economic indicators and sentiment toward the Fed’s policy goals.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,500 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 to target $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the October low of $1,190 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

ETH under pressure.
ETHUSD 161022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,302. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,302) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA (1,321) to target $1,350. The 200-day EMA sits at $1,372.

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave sub-$1,000 in play.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 161022 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

SOL was down 10.13% to $29.5925, Monday through Saturday.

Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL fell from a Monday high of $33.4650 to a Thursday low of $27.4425. However, finding crypto market support, SOL tested resistance at $32 before falling back into the deep red.

NFT and network updates added further downside pressure, with news of the Mango Markets hack and NFT bear market SOL price negative.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75. However, a fall through the October low of $27.4425 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

SOL under pressure.
SOLUSD 161022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $31.2103. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were price negatives.

An SOL move through the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($31.9028) to target the 200-day EMA ($32.7037). However, following the Friday slide from the 50-day EMA, a return to $30.00 would be the key to any recovery.

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 161022 4 Hourly Chart

 

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH and DOT Lead

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Monday to Saturday, with the total crypto market cap rising by $17.0 billion to $901.3 billion.
  • However, Fed fear fueled by positive US economic indicators delivered four consecutive sessions in the red.
  • Technical indicators are bearish, with increased uncertainty about the economic outlook becoming a crypto headwind.

Monday to Saturday, the crypto market cap rose by $17.0 billion to $901.3 billion. A bullish start to the week delivered support, with US economic indicators easing bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike on Monday.

Crypto market up for the current week.
Crypto Market Cap Daily Chart 091022

However, sentiment shifted through the second half of the week. US labor market and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers raised bets of 75-basis point rate hikes in November and December.

The hawkish sentiment left the crypto market down for a fourth consecutive session. For the week, the NASDAQ 100 rose by a modest 0.73%, a 3.80% slide on Friday, reversing gains from early in the week. We expect the crypto correlation with the NASDAQ 100 to continue, with US economic indicators and Fed monetary policy being the key drivers.

NASDAQ correlation.
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 091022

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Saturday, ADA was up 0.95% to 0.424. A bullish start to the week saw ADA rise from a Monday low of $0.417 to a Tuesday high of $0.439 before revisiting sub-$0.420. The sharp pullback stemmed from US economic indicators on Wednesday and Friday that fueled Fed fear and uncertainty towards the economic outlook.

Network updates remained bearish, with post-Vasil hard fork project numbers lackluster.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the October low of $0.417 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

ADA trends.
ADAUSD 091022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.429. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA sliding back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were ADA price negative.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA ($0.429) would ease selling pressure and give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.437). However, following October 6 slide through the 50-day EMA, a visit to sub-$0.400 remains in play.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 091022 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT rose by 2.44% to $6.31, Monday through Saturday.

A bullish start to the week saw DOT rise from a Monday low of $6.10 to a Tuesday high of $6.54. However, a bearish second half of the week led DOT to sub-$6.30.

There were no network updates to provide direction, leaving DOT in the hands of the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ 100.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT has to avoid the week’s $6.10 low to prevent a retrace to the 2022 low of $5.97.

DOT trends.
DOTUSD 091022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.37. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA falling back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.37) and the 100-day EMA ($6.44) to support a return to $6.50. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $5.97.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 091022 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bullish Monday to Saturday, rising by 3.05% to $1,316.

In a bullish first half of the week, ETH rose from a Monday low of $1,263 to a Thursday high of $1,384 before falling back to test support at $1,300.

ETH continued to struggle in the wake of the Merge, with resistance at $1,400 now the target level for the ETH bulls to break down.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,500 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 to target $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,220 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

ETH trends.
ETHUSD 091022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,335. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA (1,353) to target $1,400. The 200-day EMA sits at $1,410. Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,220 in play.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 091022 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

SOL was up 1.64% to $32.5850, Monday through Saturday.

Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL rose from a Monday low of $31.7425 to a Thursday high of $34.5000. However, a bearish second half of the week led SOL back to sub-$33.

Network news provided SOL price support, with NFT news and news of NvirWorld Metaverse partnering with Solana reflecting increased interest in the Solana ecosystem.

On October 5, NvirWorld announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Solana Foundation. According to the announcement,

“NvirWorld signed an MOU with the Solana Foundation on September 23, agreed on long-term strategic cooperation aimed to support and promote the development of NvirWorld’s projects built on the Solana blockchain.

The announcement went on to highlight,

“NvirWorld’s NWX (NvirWorld X-Club) NFT, a unique membership NFT card, was issued on the Solana blockchain and NvirMarket introduced the Solana Blockchain Network in June to support Ethereum and Solana multi-chain.”

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would target the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

SOL trends.
SOLUSD 091022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $33.2181.

A weekend bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA was SOL negative. The 100-day EMA also pulled back from the 200-day EMA, delivering a bearish signal.

An SOL breakout from the 50-day EMA ($32.2181) and the 100-day EMA ($33.2376) would support a run at the 200-day EMA ($33.5930). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA leaves the August low ($29.9150) in view.

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 091022 4 Hourly Chart

 

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH Avoids the Deep Red

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Monday to Friday, with the total crypto market cap rising by $17.8 billion to $905.6 billion.
  • However, US economic indicators and Fed fear pegged the crypto market back from more meaningful gains.
  • Technical indicators are bearish, with uncertainty about the economic outlook a headwind.

Monday to Friday, the crypto market cap rose by $17.4 billion to $905.6 billion. The upside follows two consecutive weekly losses, though the market cap continued to slip to sub-$900 billion.

Three sessions in positive territory from five supported the upswing. Market volatility across the FX and equity markets delivered crypto market support ahead of the Friday pullback.

The GBP/USD pair fell to an all-time low of $1.03565 as investors responded to the UK government’s mini-budget and the Bank of England’s need to intervene. Dollar strength put other currencies under pressure, with fears of a global economic recession adding to the FX market vol.

However, a pickup in US inflationary pressure weighed on the crypto market on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.9%, up from 4.7% in July, sending riskier assets into the red.

For the week, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 2.69%, with the crypto market enjoying a further decoupling from the US equity markets. Significantly, the NASDAQ fell for a third consecutive quarter, its worst losing streak since the global financial crisis.

NASDAQ correlation.
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 011022

Also contributing to the upswing in the crypto total market cap were favorable updates from the SEC v Ripple (XRP) case.

On Thursday, the Court overruled the SEC’s objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

The outcome of the SEC v Ripple case will impact XRP and the broader crypto market. A Ripple victory could see the onus of regulating the crypto market fall with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The crypto market favors the CFTC over the SEC.

market cap avoids the red despite the NASDAQ tumble.
Crypto Market Cap Daily Chart 011022

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Friday, ADA was down 2.47% to 0.435. The Vasil hard fork failed to support, with ADA down 4.19% for September and 5.43% for Q3.

ADA fell short of $0.50, with the markets now looking for a sharp increase in projects on the Cardano network. Compared with the previous week, the rise in the number of projects was modest, leaving ADA on the back foot.

Early in the week, ADA struck a Tuesday high of $0.463 before falling to a Wednesday low of $0.425.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

ADA sees red.
ADAUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.444. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were ADA price negative.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA would ease selling pressure and give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.453). However, following late September’s slide through the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.400 remains in view.

ADA EMAs bearish
ADAUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT fell by 3.66% to $6.32, Monday through Friday.

A bullish start to the week saw DOT rise from a low of $6.16 to a Tuesday high of $6.81. However, a bearish second half of the week left DOT at sub-$6.40.

The bearish week left DOT down 10.23% for September and 10.48% for Q3.

There were no network updates to provide direction, leaving DOT in the hands of the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ 100.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT has to avoid last week’s $6.16 low to prevent a continued retrace to the 2022 low of $5.97.

DOT under pressure.
DOTUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.44. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA falling back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.44) and the 100-day EMA ($6.59) to see a bearish trend reversal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $5.97.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bearish Monday to Friday, falling by 0.60% to $1,329.

Tracking the broader market, ETH struck a Tuesday high of $1,401 before sliding to a Wednesday low of $1,254. However, steering clear of the September low of $1,220, ETH revisited $1,374 before easing back into the red.

While the loss for the week was modest, ETH fell by 14.48% in September to reduce the Q3 gain to 24.21%.

ETH continued to struggle in the wake of the Merge. SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s comments relating to Proof-of-Stake cryptos resonated.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,220 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

ETH holds steady.
ETHUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,340. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA could signal a shift in sentiment and support a return to $1,500. However, ETH would need to break down resistance at the 100-day EMA ($1,388) to target the 200-day EMA at $1,459.

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,220 in play.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

SOL was down 1.86% to $33.2475, Monday through Friday.

Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL rose to a Tuesday high of $35.4300 before falling to a Wednesday low of $31.6400. However, steering clear of the August low of $29.915, SOL wrapped up the Friday session at $33.2475.

Despite the Monday to Friday loss, SOL rose by 5.61% for September to end Q3 with a 1.41% loss. Investor sentiment towards Solana-based NFTs has materially improved, delivering SOL price support.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

SOL under pressure.
SOLUSD 011022 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $33.2915.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both were price negatives.

An SOL breakout from 100-day EMA ($33.2915) and the 50-day EMA ($33.3727) would support a run at the 200-day EMA ($33.8415). However, a bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would give the bears a look at the August low ($29.9150).

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 011022 4 Hourly Chart

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – SOL Bucked a Bearish Week

Key Insights:

  • It was a bearish week, with the total crypto market cap falling by $9.52 billion to $885.9 billion.
  • The Federal Reserve, the Vasil hard fork, and the SEC v Ripple case were market areas of focus.
  • Technical indicators are bearish, with uncertainty about the economic outlook likely to remain a headwind.

The crypto market cap fell by $9.52 billion to end the week at $885.9 billion. It was a second consecutive weekly loss, with the market cap at sub-$900 billion for the second week since July.

Crypto market sees red for a second consecutive week
Crypto Market Cap Weekly Chart 260922

A post-Fed $42.1 billion rise on Thursday limited the downside for the week. However, a bearish weekend left the market in the red though the loss was modest relative to the previous week’s $130.3 billion sell-off.

Market sentiment towards the global economic outlook and reaction to the Fed led to a Wednesday low of $847.0 billion. However, the market bounced back on Thursday, despite a hawkish 75-basis point rate hike and gloomy economic growth projections.

The Fed holding back from delivering a percentage point rate hike and easing bets of a percentage point rate hike in November likely supported a bullish Thursday session.

Adding further support was a sharp pickup in investor optimism towards the SEC v Ripple case.

A favorable outcome to the SEC v Ripple case would be a bullish signal for XRP and the broader crypto market. The crypto sector has aired its preference for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to regulate the digital asset space. Failure by the SEC to win the case could tilt the scales in favor of the CFTC.

Crypto daily chart
Crypto Market Cap Daily Chart 260922

The shift in sentiment towards the SEC v Ripple case may also have contributed to the crypto market decoupling from the NASDAQ 100 on Thursday and Friday.

NASDAQ correlation.
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 260922

Cardano (ADA)

In the week ending September 25, ADA slipped by 0.45% to $0.446. A mixed week saw ADA fall to a Wednesday low of $0.429 before striking a Friday high of $0.482.

While avoiding the August low of $0.424, ADA also fell short of $0.500 despite the successful Cardano mainnet hard fork. A bearish weekend saw ADA give up post-hard fork gains.

Market reaction to the Vasil hard fork was bullish. Following the hard fork, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson provided positive news to deliver further ADA price support.

On Friday, Charles Hoskinson took to Twitter, saying,

“I’ve seen hundreds of tweets like this one. Lots of projects are excited to deploy now.”

The Cardano founder was referring to a tweet from NewM, which said,

“We’ve been waiting for the #Vasil to deploy our smart contracts. This upgrade makes them more efficient and cost-effective on #Cardano. The future of #music is happening now! More on this soon.”

Updates from Hoskinson and Input Output HK (IOHK) will now be instrumental to an ADA run at $1.00.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

ADA remains under pressure despite hard fork.
ADAUSD 260922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.458. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were ADA price negative.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA would ease selling pressure and give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.464). However, following Sunday’s slide through the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.400 remains in view.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 260922 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT fell by 3.88% in the week. A bearish start to the week saw DOT fall to a Wednesday low of $5.97 before striking a Friday high of $6.63. However, a bearish weekend saw DOT end the week at $6.20.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT has to avoid sub-$6.00 to avoid the 2022 low of $5.97. While network updates will continue to influence, direction from the broader market will remain the key driver.

DOT under pressure.
DOTUSD 260922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.48. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA sliding back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.48) and the 100-day EMA ($6.73) to support a bearish trend reversal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $5.97.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 260922 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bearish week, falling by 3.00% to end the week at $1,295. After a range-bound start to the week, ETH struck a Wednesday high of $1,412 before sliding to a post-Fed September low of $1,220. However, finding support from the broader market, ETH revisited $1,350 before easing back into the red.

Market reaction to the Ethereum Merge continued to peg ETH back from a return to $2,000. Increased SEC scrutiny of Proof-of-Stake (PoS) protocols was also ETH negative.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,220 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

ETH struggles at sub-$1,500.
ETHUSD 260922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,356. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA could signal a shift in sentiment and support a return to $1,500. However, ETH would need to break down resistance at the 100-day EMA ($1,428).

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,220 in play.

EMAs bearish,
ETHUSD 260922 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

SOL bucked the market trend, rising by 3.89% in the week. Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL fell to a Wednesday low of $29.9975. However, steering clear of the August low of $29.915, SOL struck a Saturday high of $34.7925 before easing back to end the week at $32.3250.

News of Helium (HNT) migrating to the Solana blockchain was SOL positive. Network updates were also bullish, with transactions on the Solana blockchain surpassing 100 billion.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

SOL bucked the trend.
SOLUSD 260922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $32.8537.

The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both were price negatives.

An SOL breakout from the 50-day EMA ($32.8537) would support a move through the 100-day EMA ($33.0624) to target the 200-day EMA ($33.941). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($32.8537) would leave sub-$30 and the August low ($29.9150) in play.

EMAs bearish
SOLUSD 260922 4 Hourly Chart

 

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – XRP Leads the Top Ten Rebound

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish start to the week for the crypto top ten, with XRP leading the way.
  • Fed and recession fears sent the crypto market into the deep red before a rebound, supported by the NASDAQ 100.
  • The total crypto market cap rose by $11.7 billion to $907.1 billion.

It was a bullish Monday session for the crypto top ten. XRP led the crypto top ten on investor optimism towards the outcome of the SEC v Ripple case. However, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the fourth time since July 3.

Fed and recession fears continued to grip the crypto market going into the Monday session. Following Sunday’s reversal, BTC and ETH tumbled to new September lows. Market fears of Fed monetary policy sending the global economy into a recession weighed.

However, the NASDAQ 100 delivered market support through the US session as bets of a percentage point rate hike eased. There were no US economic indicators or crypto news stories to influence, leaving the NASDAQ to provide direction.

On Monday, the probability of a 75-basis point was 81.0% versus 19.0% for a percentage point hike. The latest split was less hawkish than on Sunday when the chance of a percentage point hike stood at 21%. The NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.76%, with the NASDAQ 100 Mini up 58.5 points this morning.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 200922 5 Minute Chart

Crypto Market Returns to $900bn in a Choppy Monday Session

On Monday, the crypto market cap tumbled to an early low of $856.8 billion before rebounding to a high of 915.9 billion.

The bullish Monday session left the crypto market cap up $11.7 billion to $907.1 billion. However, the market cap is down $54 billion for September.

Market cap returns to $900bn.
Total Market Cap 200922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bullish Monday session for the crypto top ten.

XRP led the way, rising by 7.69%, with SOL (+4.90%) a distant second.

BNB (+2.14%), DOGE (+1.92%), and ETH (+3.11%) also found strong support, while ADA (+1.12%) and BTC (+0.65%) trailed.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Helium (HNT) and apecoin (APE) led the way, rallying by 15.41% and 15.56%, respectively. Algorand (ALGO) ended the day up 8.56%.

However, Chainlink (LINK) was among the worst performers, falling by 2.97%. Huobi Token (HT) and polkadot (DOT) saw losses of 0.57% and 0.93%, respectively.

24-HourCrypto Liquidations Continue Uptrend as Volatility Spikes

Over 24 hours, total liquidations increased as Fed and recession fears delivered a choppy session.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $292.44 million, up from $264.19 million on Monday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours declined, however. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 71,318 versus 99,009 on Monday morning.

Liquidations over twelve and four hours were down, reflecting the market rebound, while one-hour liquidations increased.

Liquidations rise.
Total Crypto Liquidations 200922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $98.29 million, down from $226.35 million on Monday morning, with four-hour liquidations falling from $140.44 million to $24.44 million. However, one-hour liquidations increased from $2.79 million to $4.27 million, reflecting the early Tuesday market decline. The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market sees early Tuesday pullback.
Total Market Cap 200922 Hourly Chart

Bitcoin’s Depressing Technical Picture

Market Picture

Bitcoin is down 8.8% over the past week, ending near $19,700. The losses continued to pile up on Monday, decreasing the price to $18.5K (-7.77% in 24 hours). Ethereum collapsed 25% to $1300 in exactly one week. Top altcoins fell from 10% (Solana, Dogecoin) to 19% (Polkadot). The exception was XRP (-0.5%).

Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, was down 14% for the week at $903bn. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index returned to “extreme fear” territory at 21 by Monday.

Flee from risks in global markets has pressured Bitcoin over the past week. Ethereum has underperformed, quickly taking back the speculative advantage accumulated before the move to PoS.

Bitcoin daily chart

The local technical picture in BTCUSD looks quite worrying. The pair has fallen to the lows of June, where it spent a few hours during the long squeeze.

Bitcoin’s main fall came Tuesday on higher-than-expected US inflation, raising the possibility of a sharper monetary policy tightening at this week’s Fed meeting.

Bitcoin weekly chart

The bear market was confirmed by BTCUSD actively selling off after testing the significant moving averages – the 50-day and 200-week moving averages. The latter, which had previously confirmed that the crypto market was growing over the long term, capitulated in June. And in recent months has acted as a selling point from which to intensify, convincing investors that the 10k mark of Bitcoin will be seen sooner than the 30k mark.

News Background

Ethereum’s transition to the new algorithm last week was a success, with the network’s power consumption reduced by 99.95%. However, the hopes of crypto bulls, expecting a rise in quotations, were not fulfilled.

Changpeng Zhao, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, urged traders to be patient. In his view, the move to PoS should not be expected to impact the Ethereum ecosystem immediately.

US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chief Gary Gensler has warned after The Merge update ETH can be treated as security from a legal perspective.

Nassim Taleb, the author of Black Swan, called bitcoin a “tumour” caused by the US Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy. In his view, 15 years of low-interest rates ruined the economy and created bubbles in the market, like BTC.

by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH Stumbles

Key Insights:

  • It is a bearish week, with the total crypto market cap down by $88.1 billion to $937.6 billion.
  • Two events sent the crypto market into the deep red, the US CPI report and the Ethereum Merge.
  • Technical indicators have become bearish, with the crypto market needing to navigate this Wednesday’s Fed monetary policy decision.

This week, the total crypto market cap is down by $88.1 billion (8.59%) to $937.6 billion.

Crypto market cap slides.
Crypto Market Cap Weekly Chart 180922

On Tuesday, the total crypto market cap tumbled by $78.9 billion in response to the US CPI report. Better-than-expected US inflation numbers fueled speculation of a percentage point rate hike.

On Thursday, another $39.2 billion left the door as investors responded to the Ethereum Merge. Buy the rumor and sell the news became a cautionary tale ahead of the Vasil hard fork.

However, disappointing US economic indicators on Thursday provided the crypto market a much-needed cushion. Weak retail sales and Philly Fed manufacturing numbers eased the bets of a percentage point hike.

Market cap reflects the impact of economic indicators and the Merge.
Crypto Market Cap Daily Chart 180922

Currently, the split between a 75-basis point and percentage point rate hike is 82% to 18% in favor of a 75-basis point hike. Ahead of Thursday’s retail sales and Philly Fed numbers, the split had stood at 75% to 25% in favor of a 75% basis point hike.

While the Ethereum Merge led to a partial crypto decoupling from the NASDAQ, the influence of the Fed should see a closer correlation in the week ahead.

NASDAQ correlation.
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 180922

For the current week, Monday through Sunday, ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL) lead the way down, with losses of 17.7% and 12.2%, respectively. Polkadot (DOT) and cardano (ADA) are down by 9.1% and 5.5%, respectively.

Cardano ADA

For the current week, Monday through Sunday, ADA is down 5.5% to $0.482. A mixed start to the week saw ADA rise to a Monday high of $0.520 before sliding to a Friday low of $0.455.

Despite the reversal, ADA steered clear of the August low of $0.424. A Friday rebound and a bullish Saturday limited the losses ahead of the Vasil hard fork.

As of September 16, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators were ADA price positive:

  • Twenty-five exchanges are hard fork ready.
  • Twenty-one exchanges are in progress, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
  • Twenty-three have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

  • Seven exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, HitBTC, and XT.com.
  • However, one exchange has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.50 in the early part of the week will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

Vasil hard fork updates should continue to provide direction as investors eye the remaining top 12 exchanges by ADA liquidity to wrap up the upgrade process. The main event is on Thursday. Following the market reaction to the Ethereum Merge, we expect price volatility to pick up ahead of the event.

ADA sees bearish week.
ADAUSD 180922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.482. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA converging on the 100-day EMA to deliver positive price signals.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a run at the August high ($0.595). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($0.482) and the 50-day EMA ($0.481) would likely test support at $0.45. Barring a crypto-meltdown, ADA should steer clear of the August low of $0.425.

EMAs bullish.
ADAUSD 180922 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

Monday through Sunday, DOT is down 9.1% to $7.00. Tracking the broader market, DOT rose to a Monday high of $8.05 before sliding to a new September low of $6.71. However, a bullish Saturday supported a return to $7.00.

The bearish week saw DOT cough up the number ten spot to Dogecoin (DOGE), which became the second largest Proof-of-Work coin after the Ethereum Merge. Network news updates took a back seat as investors responded to US inflation numbers and the Ethereum Merge.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.

However, DOT has to avoid the September low of $6.71 to prevent a continued retrace to the 2022 low of $5.99. While network updates will continue to influence, direction from the broader market will remain the key driver.

DOT under pressure.
DOTUSD 180922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $7.19. The 100-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA falling back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($7.19) and the 100-day EMA ($7.30) to support a bullish move. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $6.71 and $6.50.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 180922 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

Monday through Sunday, ETH is down 17.7% to $1,454. Bearish throughout the week, ETH slid from a Monday high of $1,784 to a Friday and September low of $1,404. Finding modest support on Saturday, ETH avoided a return to sub-$1,400.

Market reaction to the US CPI report and the Merge left ETH deep in the red. ETH tumbled by 8.3% on Tuesday and by 10.2% on Thursday. The Thursday sell-off came despite the seamless transition to a Proof-of-Stake protocol.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,404 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

ETH faces a return to sub-$1,400.
ETHUSD 180922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,556. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA could signal a shift in sentiment and support a return to $1,600. However, ETH would need to break down resistance at the 100-day EMA ($1,591).

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,400 in play.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 180922 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

Monday through Sunday, SOL is down 12.2% to $33.71. A bullish start to the week saw SOL strike a Tuesday high of $39.00 before sliding to a Friday low of $31.50.

NFT updates delivered SOL support before responding to the US CPI report and the Ethereum Merge. According to Solana News, the most-traded NFT collections over the last 24 hours include, Yoots- Mint Toobs ($426,170), Solana Name Service ($425,491), and Psyker ($273,773).

Hello Moon also shared some Solana-based NFT numbers, which were SOL positive.

However, the positive news failed to limit the impact of the US CPI report and the Merge.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the current year low of $25.78 in view.

SOL under pressure.
SOLUSD 180922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $33.689.

Following the Friday bearish cross, the 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. Both were price negatives.

An SOL breakout from the 100-day EMA ($33.833) would support a move through the 200-day EMA ($34.806) to bring the August high ($48.42) into view. However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($33.689) would bring sub-$30 and the August low ($29.9150) into play.

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 180922 4 Hourly Chart

 

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – ETH Led a Post-Merge Sell-Off

Key Insights:

  • It was a bearish Thursday session for the crypto top ten, with ethereum (ETH) leading the way down.
  • A seamless Ethereum transition to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) sent the crypto market into negative territory. A bearish session for the NASDAQ 100 added to the market angst.
  • The total crypto market cap tumbled by $38.3 billion to $925.6 billion.

It was a bearish Thursday session for the crypto top ten. ETH led the way down, with the Ethereum Merge failing to draw investors from the sidelines. Bitcoin (BTC) ended the day at sub-$20,000 for the first time since September 8.

The heavily anticipated Ethereum Merge took place on Thursday, with no reported hiccups to cause a sell-off. However, post-Merge uncertainty hit the crypto markets, with the NASDAQ 100 falling by 1.43%.

US economic indicators from Thursday supported a 75-basis point rate hike, removing any hopes of a less hawkish move. Currently, the split between a 75-basis point and percentage point rate hike is 80% to 20% in favor of a 75-basis point hike. Ahead of Thursday’s retail sales and Philly Fed numbers, the split had stood at 75% to 25% in favor of a 75% basis point hike.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 160922 5 Minute Chart

Crypto Market Sinks Post-Merge to Leave the Bears in the Driving Seat

On Thursday, the crypto market cap rose to a mid-morning high of $971.8 billion before tumbling to a low of $914.05 billion.

The slide came despite falling bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike and the success of the Ethereum Merge.

Following a modest rise on Wednesday, the crypto market cap slid by $38.3 billion to $925.6 billion. For the current week, the market cap is down $101.8 billion.

Crypto Market Cap sinks
Total Market Cap 160922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bearish Thursday session for the crypto top ten.

ETH led the way down, sliding by 10.16%.

ADA (-3.12%), BNB (-3.04%), BTC (-2.57%), DOT (-3.75%), SOL (-3.09%), and XRP (4.53%) also saw heavy losses.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Cosmos (ATOM) led the way, rallying by 6.67%, with Quant (QNT), and Kyber Network (KNC) seeing gains of 4.96% and 3.16%, respectively.

However, Ravencoin (RVN) led the way down, sliding by 21.6% in response to the Ethereum Merge. Terra Classic (LUNC) and Terra (LUNA) saw losses of 12.5% and 13.6%, respectively. Investors responded further to news of South Korean authorities issuing an arrest warrant for Do Kwon.

24-HourCrypto Liquidations Rise in Response to the Merge

Over 24 hours, total liquidations increased as investors reacted to a bearish NASDAQ session and the Ethereum Merge.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $287.54 million, up from $164.33 million on Thursday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also increased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 79,750 versus 65,683 on Thursday morning.

Liquidations over twelve hours and one hour also rose, while liquidations over four hours declined.

Crypto liquidations.
Total Crypto Liquidations 160922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $164.90 million, up from $93.39 million on Thursday morning, with one-hour liquidations up from $5.19 million to $7.22 million. However, four-hour liquidations were down from $25.46 million to $21.56 million. The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Market responds negatively to the Merge
Total Market Cap 160922 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – ETH Led Top Ten Ahead of the Merge

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten, with ethereum (ETH) leading the way ahead of the Merge.
  • US wholesale inflation figures and the NASDAQ 100 delivered support through the US session.
  • The total crypto market cap increased by $12.46 billion to $963.88 billion.

It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten. ETH and ADA led the way in anticipation of the Merge and the Vasil hard fork. Bitcoin (BTC) failed to shine after Tuesday’s 9.9% slump, with a fall to a low of $19,624 before ending the day at $20,234.

Market anticipation of the Merge delivered a bullish ETH session, with ADA benefitting from the focus on network updates.

From the US, economic indicators were crypto-friendly. In August, the annual wholesale inflation rate softened from 9.8% to 8.7%, with the core wholesale inflation rate down from 7.7% to 7.3%. The softer numbers eased bets of a percentage point Fed rate hike, supporting riskier assets.

On Wednesday, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.74%. This morning, the markets have priced in a 76% chance of a 75-basis point rate hike and a 24% chance of a percentage point hike. Ahead of the wholesale inflation numbers, there was a 31% chance of a percentage point move.

Wholesale inflation crypto positive.
Total Market Cap 150922 30 Minute Chart

Today, US retail sales, jobless claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing numbers are due. However, with the Fed’s commitment to bring inflation to target at any cost, the numbers would need to be dire to influence.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 150922 5 Minute Chart

Crypto Market Resumes Upward Trend Ahead of the Merge

On Wednesday, the crypto market cap fell to a late afternoon low of $933.4 billion before rising to a late high of $975.6 billion. Softer US wholesale inflation figures provided modest support.

Despite falling bets of a percentage point Fed rate hike, the crypto market cap rose by just $12.5 billion to $963.9 billion. The upside was modest compared with Tuesday’s $78.9 billion slump.

Crypto market cap rises modestly.
Total Market Cap 150922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten.

ETH led the way, rallying by 4.09%, with ADA (+3.66%), SOL (+3.46%), and XRP (+2.80%) close behind.

BNB (+0.72%), BTC (+0.29%), and DOT (+1.84%) trailed the front runners.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Celsius (CEL) led the way, surging by 28.97%, as investors responded to news of plans to restructure the business. Ravencoin (RVN) and Ethereum Classic (ETC) saw gains of 17.44% and 11.23%, respectively, as the crypto market focused on the Merge.

However, Terra (LUNA), Terra Classic (LUNC), and TerraClassicUSD (USTC) led the way down. LUNA and LUNC slid by 16.10% and 23.34%, respectively, with USTC tumbling by 27.97%. News of South Korea issuing an arrest warrant for founder Do Kwon and several others weighed.

24-HourCrypto Liquidations Fall as Crypto Market Steadies

Over 24 hours, total liquidations decreased as investors reacted to the softer US wholesale inflation numbers and a bullish NASDAQ 100 session. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $164.33 million, down from $353.74 million on Wednesday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 65,683 versus 99,381 on Wednesday morning.

Liquidations over twelve and four hours were down. However, one-hour liquidations inched higher as the crypto market turned bearish early in the Thursday session.

Liquidations down over 24-hours.
Total Crypto Liquidations 150922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $93.39 million, down from $296.84 million on Wednesday morning, with four-hour liquidations down from $54.37 million to $25.46 million. However, one-hour liquidations were up from $2.88 million to $5.19 million. The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

1 hour market cap sees early Thursday red.
Total Market Cap 150922 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – SOL Leads the Top Ten While ETH Sees Red

Key Insights:

  • It is a mixed Monday session for the crypto top ten, with solana (SOL) in breakout mode while ethereum (ETH) struggled.
  • Investor jitters ahead of the approaching Merge and the Vasil hard fork weighed on ETH and Cardano (ADA).
  • The total crypto market cap is up by $2.96 billion to $1,029 billion, with 120 minutes of the session remaining.

It is a mixed Monday session for the crypto top ten. ETH leads the way down, while solana (SOL) leads the way, rallying by 7.00%, supported by NFT news. However, despite the mixed session, bitcoin (BTC) aims to extend the winning streak to six sessions with a return to $22,000.

Crypto market moves suggested investor jitters creeping in ahead of the Ethereum Merge. Cardano (ADA) also struggled, despite progress towards the Vasil hard fork.

However, another bullish session for the NASDAQ 100 was good enough for the broader crypto market. On Monday, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 1.27%, adding to last week’s 4.14% gain.

It could be a trickier day ahead. The US CPI report is in focus early in the U.S session. A pickup in inflationary pressure could create uncertainty over the Fed’s September move. The markets have priced in a 75-basis point rate hike.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 130922 Daily Chart

Crypto Market on Target to Extend Winning Streak to Six

On Monday, the crypto market cap fell to an early low of $1,004 billion before climbing to an afternoon high of $1,049 billion. With volatility picking up, the market cap fell back to sub-$1,020 billion before returning to positive territory.

With 120 minutes of the Monday session remaining, the crypto market cap is up $2.96 billion to $1,029 billion. Another positive session would extend the winning streak to six sessions.

Market cap on target for a six-day winning streak.
Total Market Cap 130922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a mixed Monday session for the crypto top ten.

SOL leads the way, gaining 7.00%, with BTC (+2.21%) and XRP (+0.53%) also finding support.

However, ETH (-3.06%) leads the way down, with ADA (-0.39%), BNB (-0.88%), and DOT (-0.13%) also seeing red.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Ravencoin (RVN) leads the way, rallying by 37.36%, with Golem (GLM) and Hedera (HBAR) seeing gains of 23.53% and 12.06%, respectively.

However, Terra (LUNA), Terra Classic (LUNC), and TerraClassicUSD (USTC) lead the way down. LUNA and LUNC are down by 23.43% and 23.6%, respectively, with USTC falling by 16.83%.

24-HourCrypto Liquidations Inch Higher in Choppy Monday Session

Over 24 hours, total liquidations increased as jitters over network updates. The BTC return to $22,000 led to the liquidation of shorts.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $206.12 million, up from $127.57 million on Monday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also increased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 64,872 versus 39,529 on Monday morning. Liquidations over one and four hours declined, while liquidations over twelve hours were higher, reflecting market volatility and the late recovery.

Crypto liquidations reflect market conditions.
Total Crypto Liquidations 130922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $91.64 million, up from $61.55 million on Monday morning. However, four-hour liquidations were down from $31.52 million to $14.45 million, with one-hour liquidations down from $15.28 million to $6.68 million. The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market cap chart shows a pickup in volatility.
Total Market Cap 130922 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – ETH and DOT Lead the Top Ten South

Key Insights:

  • It is a bearish Sunday session for the crypto top ten, with ethereum (ETH) and Polkadot (DOT) leading the way down.
  • Despite hopes of a crypto bottom, Fed fear resurfaced ahead of key US economic indicators in the coming week.
  • The total crypto market cap is down by $12.5 billion to $1,011 billion, with 100 minutes of the session remaining.

It is a bearish Sunday session for the crypto top ten. ETH and DOT lead the crypto top ten into negative territory. However, despite the bearish session, Bitcoin (BTC) has avoided sub-$21,000 for a second consecutive session.

There were no cues from the US or the crypto news wires at the end of the week. The lack of direction left investors to consider the week ahead. US inflation and retail sales figures could deliver Fed uncertainty to a market resigned to a 75-basis point rate hike.

A pickup in inflationary pressure and positive consumption numbers could force the Fed into a percentage point rate hike. Front loading is the Fed’s mantra and bringing down inflation to target at any cost is the objective.

With the ECB and the Bank of Canada delivering 75-basis point hikes, the dollar could resume its upswing and send the crypto market into another tailspin.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 120922 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Hits Reverse as Investor Focus Returns to US Stats

On Sunday, after a mixed morning, the total crypto market rose to a late afternoon high of $1,035 billion before falling to a low of $1,004 billion.

A late pullback leaves the crypto market cap down $12.47 billion to $1,011 billion for the session. However, four bullish sessions from seven should deliver a second consecutive weekly gain. For the current week, the total crypto market cap is up $49 billion.

Crypto market ends four day winning streak.
Total Market Cap 120922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a bearish Sunday session for the crypto top ten.

ETH (-2.44%) and DOT (-2.44%) lead the way down, with ADA (-1.76%), BNB (-1.58%), SOL (-1.52%), and XRP (-1.85%) also struggling.

However, BTC is down by a modest 0.55%

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

ApeCoin (APE) leads the way, rallying by 11.95%, with celsius (CEL) up 9.02%. compound (COMP) is also amongst the front runners, rising by 3.12%.

At the other end of the table, helium (HNT), ravencoin (RVN), and curve DAO token (CRV) are amongst the worst performers. RVN is down 10.40%, with HNT and CRV falling by 8.46% and 5.50%, respectively.

One Hour Crypto Liquidations Jump as Fed Fear Resurfaces

Over 24 hours, total liquidations continued to fall, with the crypto market seeing modest losses on Sunday.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $127.57 million, down from $172.82 million on Sunday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also decreased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 39,529 versus 50,233 on Sunday morning. Liquidations over four and twelve hours declined, while liquidations over one hour were higher, reflecting the late market pullback.

Liquidations jump over the hour.
Total Crypto Liquidations 120922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $61.55 million, down from $120.10 million on Sunday morning, with four-hour liquidations down from $96.63 million to $31.52 million. However, one-hour liquidations were up from $1.08 million to $15.28 million. The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

A late pullback sends one hour liquidations up.
Total Market Cap 120922 Hourly Chart

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH and SOL Lead

Key Insights:

  • It is another bullish week, with the total crypto market cap up by $52.8 billion to $1,015 billion.
  • Ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL) lead the way, supported by a bullish Friday session that marked a material shift in investor sentiment.
  • Technical indicators have become bullish, with Fed fear abating in response to Thursday’s ECB monetary policy decision.

This week, the total crypto market cap is up by $52.83 billion (5.49%) to $1,015 billion. In the second half of the week, US economic indicators and hawkish Fed chatter had a muted impact on riskier assets.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada hiked rates by 75 basis points and highlighted the need for more. The ECB followed with a 75-basis point rate hike and 75-basis point increases in deposit and margin lending rates.

The moves by the central banks appeared to have eased market tension over Fed monetary policy. After resigning to the fact that the Fed will likely lift rates by 75 basis points later this month, there was also the realization that other central banks are taking a similar line to tackle inflation.

Crypto market cap returns to $1 trillion.
Crypto Market Cap Weekly 100922

The shift in investor sentiment was also evident in the performance of the NASDAQ 100, which provided cues to the crypto market throughout the week. The NASDAQ rallied by 2.11% on Friday to end the week up 4.14%.

NASDAQ correlation.
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 100922

For the current week, Monday through Saturday, ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL) lead the way, with gains of 9.69% and 9.10%, respectively, with polkadot (DOT) up by 3.79%. Despite the fast-approaching Vasil hard fork, cardano (ADA) trails with a more modest 1.98% gain.

Cardano ADA

For the current week, Monday through Saturday, ADA is up 1.98% to $0.514. A bearish start to the week saw ADA slide to a Wednesday low of $0.454 before finding support from the broader market. A bullish second half of the week saw ADA rally to a Saturday high of $0.524 before easing back.

Despite the second-half breakout, ADA came up short of the August high of $0.595. ADA faced increased market volatility as investors assessed progress towards the September 22 Vasil hard fork.

As of September 9, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators were ADA price positive:

  • Fifteen exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 14 as of September 8.
  • Hard fork ready exchanges include AAX, AscendEX (Bitmax), Binance, Bitkub, Bitmart, Bitrue, BKEX, Btc Turk, Dex-Trade, Gate.io, Litebit.eu, MEXC, NDAX, OKex, and Whitebit.
  • Twenty-seven exchanges are in progress, down by one from the previous day, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

  • Six exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including Coinbase, HitBTC, Upbit, and XT.com.
  • Two exchanges have yet to start the upgrade process: ChangellyPro and ZB.com.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 in the early part of the week will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would bring the current year low of $0.384 into view.

Vasil hard fork updates should continue to provide direction as investors eye the remaining top 12 exchanges by ADA liquidity to wrap up the upgrade process.

ADA on the move.
ADAUSD 100922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.483. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA. The pries signals were positive.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a run at the August high ($0.595). However, a fall through the 200-day EMA ($0.483) would likely test support at the 50-day EMA ($0.481). Barring a crypto-meltdown, ADA should steer clear of the August low of $0.425.

EMAs bullish.
ADAUSD 100922 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

Monday through Saturday, DOT is up 3.79% to $7.66. Tracking the broader market, DOT fell to a Wednesday and an August low of $6.79 before rallying to a Friday high of $7.93. However, a bearish Saturday morning saw DOT fall back to sub-$7.70.

Despite the modest gains, DOT leapfrogged Dogecoin (DOGE) to move back into the crypto top ten by market cap. News of a surge in social volume reflected an increased interest in the coin. Adding to the upside are network news updates, with a modification to the Polkadot Runtime being DOT positive.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.

However, DOT has to avoid the September low of $6.76 to prevent a continued retrace to the current year’s low of $5.99. While network updates will continue to influence, direction from the broader market will remain the key driver.

DOT finds support.
DOTUSD 100922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bullish.

DOT sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $7.59. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA converging on the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered positive price signals.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a return to $9.00. However, a DOT slide through the 200-day EMA would bring the 100-day EMA ($7.42) and the 50-day EMA ($7.38) into play. A DOT slide through 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $6.76.

EMAs bullish.
DOTUSD 100922 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

Monday through Saturday, ETH was up 9.69% to $1,732. A choppy start to the week saw ETH fall to a Wednesday low of $1,499 before rallying to a Friday high of $1,747. The shift in sentiment towards Fed monetary policy and the upcoming Merge delivered support in the week.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the August low of $1,421 would bring the June and the current year’s low of $880 into view.

ETH leads the way.
ETHUSD 100922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal. ETH sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,623. On Saturday, the 50-day EMA crossed through the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. Both were ETH price positives.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support an ETH run at the August high of $2,031. However, a fallback through the EMAs to sub-$1,600 would bring the August low of $1,421 into view.

EMAs bullish.
ETHUSD 100922 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

Monday through Saturday, SOL was up 9.10% to $35.0825. Tracking the broader market, SOL fell to a Wednesday low of $30.3175. However, steering clear of the August low of $29.9150, SOL rallied to a Friday high of $35.9650.

Solana hit a new milestone this week of surpassing 95 billion transactions, with 100 billion transactions around the corner. The surge in transaction rates reflects network success and points to further price upswings.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year’s low of $25.78.

SOL Joins ETH in a bullish week.
SOLUSD 100922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal. SOL sat at the 200-day EMA, currently at $35.1680.

The 50-day EMA closed in on the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. Both were price positives.

An SOL breakout from the 200-day EMA ($35.1680) would support a return to $40, to bring the August high into view. However, a slide through the 100-day EMA ($33.4386) and the 50-day EMA ($32.9650) would bring sub-$30 and the August low ($29.9150) into view.

Chart Description automatically generated

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – Bitcoin Returns to $21,000

Key Insights:

  • It is a bullish Friday session for the crypto top ten, with bitcoin (BTC) returning to $21,000.
  • The NASDAQ 100 and riskier assets enjoyed a breakout week, as sidelined investors jumped in despite hawkish Fed chatter and US economic indicators.
  • The total crypto market cap is up $62.58 billion to $1,009 billion, with 60 minutes of the session remaining.

It is a bullish Friday session for the crypto top ten. Bitcoin (BTC) leads the way, with a return to $21,000 for the first time since August 26. DOT and ETH lead the rest of the top ten while trailing BTC on the day.

There were no US stats to spook investors through the US session, allowing the BTC to eye a three-day winning streak. Sentiment towards the Fed monetary policy, inflation, and the economic outlook took a breather. The NASDAQ 100 rallied by a further 2.11% to end the week up 4.14%.

Despite hawkish Fed Chair Powell and FOMC member chatter, the NASDAQ 100 ended a three-week losing streak, which provided crypto support. The ECB’s monetary policy decision looks to have eased Fed fear following the Thursday policy moves that matched those of the Fed.

NASDAQ supports a crypto breakout week.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 100922 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Returns to $1 Trillion for the First Time Since August

On Friday, the total crypto market fell to a low of $944.9 billion before surging to a high of $1,019 billion.

While easing back from the day high, the crypto market cap is up $62.58 billion to $1,009 billion. Three bullish sessions have reversed losses from earlier in the week. For the current week, the total crypto market cap is up $47 billion.

Crypto market cap returns to $1 trillion.
Total Market Cap 100922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a bullish Friday session for the crypto top ten.

Crypto market barometer BTC leads the way, rallying 10.8%, with DOT (+5.14%) and ETH (+5.31%) also enjoying solid gains.

However, ADA (+3.97%), BNB (+4.85%), SOL (+3.65%), and XRP (+3.76%) trailed the front runners.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Ravencoin (RVN) leads the way, surging by 53.97%, with STEPN (GMT) and TerraClassicUSD (USTC) up by 20.72% and 25.83%, respectively.

Terra Classic (LUNC) and Helium (HNT) buck the top 100 trend, with losses of 12.08% and 2.07%, respectively.

Crypto Liquidations Surge as Extended Rally Hits Short Positions

Over 24 hours, total liquidations jumped as crypto short position holders became victims of an unexpected crypto rally.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $372.09 million, up from $118.74 million on Friday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also increased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 103,210 versus 36,151 on Friday morning. Liquidations over one hour and twelve hours are higher, while four-hour liquidations are lower.

Crypto liquidations rise in a bullish session.
Total Crypto Liquidations 100922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $189.87 million, up from $74.59 million on Friday morning, with one-hour liquidations up from $1.06 million to $2.33 million. However, 4-hour liquidations are down from $17.05 million to $12,32 million. The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market cap rebound.
Total Market Cap 100922 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOT Leads the Top Ten on Reentry

Key Insights:

  • It is a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten, with Solana (SOL) and Polkadot (DOT) leading the way while Cardano (ADA) struggles.
  • Market correlation with the NASDAQ 100 was evident throughout the US session, delivering broader market support.
  • The total crypto market cap is up $2.85 billion to $945.2 billion, with 100 minutes of the session remaining.

It is a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten. Bitcoin (BTC) avoids a visit to sub-$19,000, while DOT and SOL lead the way in a relatively range-bound Thursday session.

US economic indicators failed to impress on Thursday, easing selling pressure on riskier assets. While US initial jobless claims fell from 228k to 222k, the continuing jobless claims rose from 1,437k to 1,473k. There was a muted crypto market reaction to the numbers ahead of the US opening bell.

However, the NASDAQ 100 did provide support, rising by 0.60% to consolidate Wednesday’s 2.14% rally. This week, the crypto market correlation with the NASDAQ 100 strengthened. Riskier assets brushed aside hawkish Fed chatter for a second session. On Thursday, Powell talked of his commitment to fighting inflation. However, there was nothing new from the Fed Chair to spook the markets.

NASDAQ correlation
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 090922 5 Min Chart

Crypto Market Finds Support from the NASDAQ 100 for a Second Session

On Thursday, the total crypto market fell to a low of $927.7 billion before rising to a high of $957.0 billion.

While falling back from the day high, the crypto market cap is up $2.85 billion to $945.2 billion. However, the crypto market cap is down $15.6 billion for the current week, with Fed fear lingering.

Crypto market cap holds steady.
Total Market Cap 090922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a mixed Thursday session for the crypto top ten.

DOT (+2.50%) and SOL (+2.26%) lead the way, with 100 minutes of the session remaining. XRP is up 1.10%.

While BNB (+0.54%), BTC (+0.01%), and ETH (+0.21%) are also in positive territory, ADA is down 0.42%. DOGE fell out of the top ten.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

OKB (OKB) leads the way with a 16.64% gain, with NEO (NEO) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) up by 6.52% and 8.27%, respectively.

Helium (HNT) gave up some of Wednesday’s gains, falling by 10.00%, with EOS (EOS) and Lido DAO (LDO) down by 3.84% and 4.26%, respectively.

Crypto Liquidations Fall in a Range-Bound Thursday Session

Over 24 hours, total liquidations eased further back, supported by another bullish day for the NASDAQ 100.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $118.74 million, down from $245.56 million on Thursday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 36,151 versus 58,782 on Thursday morning. Liquidations over one hour, four hours, and 12 hours are also lower.

Crypto liquidations fall in a range-bound session.
Total Crypto Liquidations 090922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $74.59 million, down from $151.18 million on Thursday morning, with one-hour liquidations down from $5.25 million to $1.06 million. 4-hour liquidations are down from $104.84 million to $17.05 million. The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Thursday saw modest moves despite Powell and stats on the docket.
Total Market Cap 090922 Hourly Chart

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ADA and ETH Lead on Network Updates

Key Insights:

  • It is a bullish week, with the total crypto market cap up by $28.9 billion to $950.4 billion.
  • Cardano (ADA) and Ethereum (ETH) lead the way, with the Vasil hard fork news and sentiment towards the Merge delivering breakout weeks.
  • However, technical indicators remain mixed, with market sentiment towards the Fed a headwind.

In the current week, the total crypto market cap is up $28.9 billion (3.14%) to $950.4 billion. US economic indicators and market sentiment towards Fed monetary policy provided direction in the week. While Fed fear remained a headwind, crypto network news delivered support.

Market cap on target for a modest weekly gain.
Crypto Market Cap Weekly 040922

For the current week, Monday through Sunday, Cardano (ADA) leads the way. Ethereum (ETH) also found strong support, while Solana (SOL) and Polkadot (DOT) trailed.

Cardano ADA

For the current week, Monday through Sunday, ADA was up 15.6% to $0.496. Bullish from the start of the week, ADA rallied from a Monday low of $0.424 to a Sunday high of $0.510 before easing back.

Despite the bullish week, ADA came up short of the August high of $0.595. Throughout the week, Vasil hard fork updates delivered ADA price support.

Early in the week, news of 75% of SPO nodes upgrading to v1.35.3 provided price support. However, Friday’s announcement of a September 22 Vasil hard fork date delivered a breakout weekend and a return to $0.51.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 in the early part of the week will be the key. However, a fall through this week’s August low of $0.425 would bring the May and the current year low of $0.384 into view.

Vasil hard fork chatter should continue to provide direction.

ADA in breakout mode.
ADAUSD 040922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal. ADA sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.481. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA closing in on the 100-day EMA to deliver positive price signals.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a run at the August high. However, a fall through the 200-day EMA ($0.481) would likely test support at the 100-day EMA ($0.470). Barring a crypto-meltdown, ADA should steer clear of the August low of $0.425.

EMAs bullish.
ADAUSD 040922 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

Monday through Sunday, DOT is up 4.80% to $7.20. A mixed start to the week saw DOT fall to a Monday and an August low of $6.79 before rallying to a Friday high of $7.57. However, a bearish weekend left DOT back at sub-$7.30.

There were no network updates to provide DOT support, with DOT briefly re-entering the top ten cryptos by market cap before falling back out.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.

However, DOT has to avoid the August low of $6.79 to prevent a continued retrace to the current year’s low of $5.99. While network updates will influence, Fed Fear keeps US economic indicators in the spotlight.

DOT tracks the broader crypto market.
DOTUSD 040922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish. DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $7.24. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, while the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA. The indicators delivered mixed price signals.

A DOT slide from the 50-day EMA would likely see DOT slide through the August low of $6.79 to bring the current year low of $5.99 into view. However, a DOT move through the 100-day EMA ($7.43) to $7.50 would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($7.67). A return to $8.00 would bring the August high of $9.68 into play.

EMAs bearish.
DOTUSD 040922 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

Monday through Sunday, ETH was up 8.98% to $1,554. A mixed start to the week saw ETH fall to a Monday and an August low of $1,421 before rallying to a Friday high of $1,650.

Investor sentiment towards the upcoming Merge continued to provide ETH price support.

Looking at the trends, an ETH return to $1,700 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,013 and a move through to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the August low of $1,421 would bring the June and the current year’s low of $880 into view.

ETH on the move.
ETHUSD 040922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,568. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, both ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,568) would support a run at the 100-day EMA ($1,602) and the 200-day EMA ($1,620). A breakout from the 200-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the August high of $2,031.

However, a fallback from the 50-day EMA would bring the August low of $1,421 into view.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 040922 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

Monday through Sunday, SOL was up 3.95% to $31.6125. Tracking the broader market, SOL fell to a Monday and an August low of $29.9150 before rallying to a Tuesday high of $33.1725.

US economic indicators and market sentiment towards the Fed provided direction throughout the week.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $25.78.

SOL finds broader market support.
SOLUSD 040922 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $32.0634

The 50-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, both price negatives.

An SOL slide from the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$30 and the August low of $29.9150 into play. From sub-$30, the bears will target the June 14 and current year low of $25.78.

However, an SOL breakout from the 50-day EMA ($32.0634) would support a run at the 100-day EMA (33.8112). An SOL move through the 100-day EMA gives the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($36.0668) and $40.

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 040922 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE Drops Out of the Crypto Top Ten

Key Insights:

  • It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten, with Dogecoin (DOGE) falling out of the top ten and Solana (SOL) leading the way down.
  • US labor market stats and geopolitics sent the NASDAQ 100 and the crypto market into the red.
  • The total crypto market cap is down $4.2 billion to $958.6 billion.

It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten. Bitcoin (BTC) is on target to end the session at sub-$20,000 for the second time this week. However, SOL leads the way down, while DOT leapfrogged DOGE to return to the top ten by market cap.

US economic indicators provided brief crypto market relief before weighing on investor sentiment.

In August, nonfarm payrolls increased by 315k versus a downwardly revised 526k surge in July. Economists forecasted a 300k rise. Despite the increase in hiring, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7% as the participation rate climbed from 62.1% to 62.4%.

While nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, wage growth disappointed. In August, average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% versus a forecasted 0.4% rise. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.5% in July. Year-over-year, wages were up 5.2%. Economists forecast a 5.3% increase.

The positive market response was short-lived, with US Treasury Secretary and Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen weighing on risk sentiment. The Former Fed Chair reportedly said that inflation remained too high, and the onus sat with the Fed to bring inflation down.

Crypto correlation with the NASDAQ 100 remained firmly in place throughout the Friday session. The NASDAQ 100 coughed up early gains to end the day with a 1.31% loss.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 030922 5 Min Chart

Crypto Market Cap Finds Brief Relief from US Labor Market Stats

On Friday, the total crypto market cap rose to an early afternoon high of $983.4 billion before sliding to a low of $944.4 billion. Weaker than expected US labor market indicators delivered initial support before sentiment chilled.

Concerns over softer labor market conditions and fear that the Fed would remain committed to delivering its interest rate goals weighed. Adding to the downside was news of Russia reversing plans to resume gas supplies to Germany.

The total market cap is down by $4.19 billion on Friday, with two hours of the session remaining. For the current week, the market cap is up $37 billion to $958.6 billion.

Crypto market sees red.
Total Market Cap 030922 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten.

Polkadot (DOT) bucks the top ten trend, rising by 2.65% to retake the number 10 spot.

However, it is a bearish session for the rest of the top ten, with SOL falling by 1.38% to lead the way down.

BNB (-0.40%), BTC (-0.64%), ETH (-0.15%), and XRP (-0.63%) are also in the red while ADA is currently flat.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Litecoin (LTC), yearn.finance (YFI), and Synthetix (SNX) are among the front runners. YFI leads the way, rallying by 8.4%, with LTC and SNX up by 7.0% and 4.6%, respectively.

At the other end of the table, Helium (HNT) continued to slide, falling by 6.6%. UNUS SED LEO (LEO) and Flow (FLOW) are also among the worst performers, with losses of 2.3% and 3.9%, respectively.

24-Hour Crypto Liquidations Fall Despite Bearish Sentiment

Over 24 hours, total liquidations have slipped back, supported by improving market conditions late in the Friday session.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $149.87 million, down from $154.58 million on Friday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 43,947 versus 52,615 on Friday morning. Liquidations over 12 hours and four hours have increased while one-hour liquidations eased back.

Crypto liquidations ease back.
Total Crypto Liquidations 030922

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations stood at $122,97 million, up from $105.75 million on Friday morning, with 4-hour liquidations up from $25.37 million to $28.83 million. However, one-hour liquidations are down from $4.59 million to $1.10 million. The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market finds late support.
Total Market Cap 030922 Hourly Chart

ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – Powell Delivers August Lows

Key Insights:

  • It is another bearish week for the crypto market, with the total market cap down by $59 billion to $945 billion.
  • US economic indicators delivered crypto market support before a Fed Chair Powell-fueled Friday crypto meltdown.
  • Technical indicators have turned bearish, indicating further price falls should sentiment towards the Fed persist.

It has been a bearish week for riskier assets and the crypto market. While US economic indicators delivered mixed signals, the latest string of economic indicators had raised the hope of a more dovish Fed ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Friday speech.

A sharper contraction across the US services sector raised the prospects of a US economic recession. In August, the services PMI slid from 47.3 to 44.1. Economists forecast an increase to 49.2. While the stat was negative, a positive crypto market reaction highlighted investor angst toward Fed monetary policy.

Other stats were mixed. While core durable goods orders, jobless claims, and Q2 GDP numbers beat forecasts, personal spending and inflation figures were softer. However, the combination was crypto market positive. Softer inflation figures came out shortly before Fed Chair Powell’s speech, supporting the crypto market before the meltdown.

However, Fed Chair Powell sent riskier assets tumbling on Friday, with forward guidance on interest rates and the risks to labor market conditions and the economy doing the damage.

Fed Chair Powell delivered a warning to the markets of the Fed’s commitment to bring inflation to target. Powell talked of the likely fallout from the Fed’s goal, including the impact on labor market conditions. The Fed Chair also removed any hope of a policy reversal by highlighting the need for a period of sustained below-trend growth alongside a weaker labor market to tame inflation.

In the current week, the total crypto market cap is down $58.7 billion (5.84%) to $945.3 billion. Crypto investors responded to the latest shift in sentiment towards the US economy and Fed monetary policy.

Cryptos hit reverse on Powell speech.
Crypto Market Cap Weekly 280822

Things were not much better for the US equity markets. On Friday, the NASDAQ slid by 3.94% to end the week down by 4.4%.

NASDAQ correlation intact.
Crypto – NASDAQ Daily Chart 280822

For the current week, Monday through Sunday morning, Solana (SOL) leads the way down, with losses of 13.96. Cardano (ADA), Ethereum (ETH), and Polkadot (DOT) are also struggling in the week. ETH is down 7.82%, with ADA and DOT seeing losses of 3.24% and 5.38%, respectively.

Cardano ADA

For the current week, Monday through Sunday morning, ADA was down 3.24% to $0.448. A choppy week saw ADA strike a Thursday high of $0.482 before sliding to a Saturday low of $0.425.

The bearish week saw ADA fall to a new August low to bring sub-$0.40 and the May and current year low of $0.384 into play.

While Fed Chair Powell did the damage, Vasil hard fork updates provided support. According to PoolTool, 70% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3, up from 68% on Saturday, 62% on Friday, and 53% on Thursday. 75% is the target.

Upgrades ADA price positive.
Cardano Node Upgrades 280822

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to break out from the August high of $0.595 to move through the June high of $0.6688 to target the May high of $0.906. However, a fall through this week’s August low of $0.425 would bring the May and the current year low of $0.384 into view. Updates on the Vasil hard fork will remain the key driver.

ADA sees modest loss despite falling to a new August low.
ADAUSD 280822 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. On Sunday, ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.465. Following the bearish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA, the 50-day EMA and the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA to deliver negative price signals.

A pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 200-day EMA gives the bears a look at sub-$0.40 and the 2022 low ($0.384).

However, an ADA breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.465) would ease selling pressure and bring $0.50 back into view.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 280822 4 Hourly Chart

Polkadot (DOT)

Monday through Sunday morning, DOT is down 5.38% to $7.03. DOT rose to a Wednesday high of $7.77 before sliding to a Saturday and a new August low of $6.80. Finding support going into the weekend, DOT returned to $7.0 levels.

While Fed Chair Powell weighed, investor sentiment towards Polkadot and news of the new parachains delivered support.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.

However, DOT would need to steer clear of the August low of $6.80 to avoid a continued retrace to the current year’s low of $5.99. While network updates will continue to influence, sentiment towards Fed monetary policy will remain a key focal point as investors shift attention back to US economic indicators.

DOT sees new August low.
DOTUSD 280822 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish. DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $7.48. Following a bearish cross on Tuesday, the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA sliding back from the 200-day EMA, both DOT price negatives.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 200-day EMA would bring the current year’s low of $5.99 into play.

However, a DOT move through the 200-day EMA and a return to $8.00 would signal a near-term bearish trend reversal and a run at the August high of $9.68.

EMAs bearish
DOTUSD 280822 4 Hourly Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

For the current week, Monday through to early Sunday, ETH was down 7.82% to $1,491. ETH struck a Thursday high of $1,722 before sliding to a Saturday and new August low of $1,447.

Updates on the Ethereum Merge took a back seat as investors responded to US economic indicators and Fed Chair Powell.

Looking at the trends, a breakout from the August high of $2,013 and move through to $2,500 would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the August low of $1,447 would bring the June and the current year’s low of $880 into view.

ETH visits sub-$1,500.
ETHUSD 280822 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,628. Following Friday’s bearish cross, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, both ETH price negatives.

A bearish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would deliver another bearish week. However, a move through the 50-day EMA could see ETH breakout from the 200-day EMA and the 100-day EMA to test resistance at $1,800.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 280822 4 Hourly Chart

Solana (SOL)

Monday through Sunday morning, SOL was down 13.96% to $31.38. A range-bound start to the week saw SOL rise to a Monday high of $36.55 before sliding to a Saturday low of $30.8575.

There were no major network updates, leaving SOL in the hands of Fed Chair Powell.

Looking at the trends, a return to $50 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $30.86 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year’s low of $25.78.

SOL slides to new August low.
SOLUSD 280822 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $35.12.

The 50-day EMA slid back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, both price negatives.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 200-day EMA would support a slide to sub-$30. Another bearish week would bring the June 14 current year low of $25.78 into view.

However, an SOL move through the 50-day EMA (35.18) would support a run at the 100-day EMA (37.19). In the event of a move through the 100-day EMA, we could see a momentum-driven rebound to support a run at the 200-day EMA ($38.66) and $40.

EMAs bearish.
SOLUSD 280822 4 Hourly Chart