The News Heard around the globe

The International Business Times, reported the following this morning.” Asian shares jumped and the euro firmed Monday on hopes that Europe will come up with some concrete steps this week toward activating a crucial euro zone bailout fund and reports that the International Monetary Fund is considering helping Italy.”

This morning the euro rose 0.6 percent to $1.3322 after Italian daily La Stampa said the International Monetary Fund is preparing a 600 billion euro ($794 billion) loan for Italy without saying where it got the information. The IMF money would give Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti 12 to 18 months to implement policy changes without having to refinance the country’s existing debt, the Italian daily reported. Monti could draw on the money if his planned austerity measures fail to stop declines in Italian debt, La Stampa said.

The story began to spread around the globe within mintues, social net-workers were tweeting and online news centers were spreading the artilces. Reuters reported on Monday morning that contact between the IMF and Rome have intensified recently, but that it was unclear what support Italy could be offered.

In a short time, IMF chief Christine Lagarde, publicly denied the story and reiterated that the IMF was not negotiating with Italy and reiterated her earlier statement that the IMF only had an emergency fund of 285billion euro, not nearly enough to help, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Investors are hoping for any news, especially good news, their nerves are shattered and raw and the slightest indication that the EU has a way to avoid multiple defaults, any signs of guidance or policy would boost the markets.

European markets were already responding the Black Friday news from the US, but these numbers are not firmed, all weekend the reports ranged from 6% to 16.% sales increases. Internet retailers were singing joy and claiming as much as a 35% increase. It didn’t take much news for weary traders to jump back into the markets.

The Italian Government today sold inflation-linked bonds  at a  yield of  7.3 percent, the second time in a week that the Treasury auctioned debt above the 7 percent threshold that led Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts.  The false rumors regarding the IMF assured a successful sale. Demand was 2.16 times the amount sold.

Watch the markets closely to see investors reactions to the retraction of the news. The euro, should trade lower later today, as the dollar surges based on retail sales in the US.

are hoping for any news, especially good news, their nerves are shattered and raw and the slightest indication that the EU has a way to avoid multiple defaults, any signs of guidance or policy would boost the markets.

European markets were already responding the Black Friday news from the US, but these numbers are not firmed, all weekend the reports ranged from 6% to 16.% sales increases. Internet retailers were singing joy and claiming as much as a 35% increase. It didn’t take much news for weary traders to jump back into the markets.

The Italian Government today sold inflation-linked bonds  at a  yieldof  7.3 percent, the second time in a week that the Treasury auctioned debt above the 7 percent threshold that led Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts.  The false rumors regarding the IMF assured a successful sale. Demand was 2.16 times the amount sold.

Watch the markets closely to see investors reactions to the retraction of the news. The euro, should trade lower later today, as the dollar surges based on retail sales in the US.

EUR/GBP Forecast for the Week of Nov. 28th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially rose during the week, but was sold off in the second half as bond auctions went very poorly throughout the EU. The markets are starting to abandon the EU in general and the Euro as a result. However, the UK is highly connected to the EU and the results of that area. The UK exports over 30% of its goods to the EU, and as a result – poor economic news in the EU is poor economic news for the UK as well. The Pound is being sold off as a result now, and this pair is certainly a fight between two unwanted currencies. That will make this pair choppy, but the bias is more than likely to the downside. The two preceding weeks formed supportive hammers before this week’s shooting star. This pair appears to be winding up for a move, but the direction won’t be clear until we either get above the 0.8650 level, or below the 0.85 level. Until then, we are sitting tight in this pair.

EUR/GBP Forecast for the Week of Nov. 28th, 2011, Technical Analysis EUR/GBP Forecast for the Week of Nov. 28th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 28th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP continued to fall on Friday as traders run from the Euro in general. The Pound is also not very liked at the moment, so the down move in this pair is going to be much slower than you would see in other Euro or Pound related crosses. The 0.85 level looks like it will be visited soon, but to be honest – we would rather sell both of these currencies in other crosses until that level gets broken to the downside.

EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 28th, 2011, Technical AnalysisEUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 28th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 25th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP rose during the Thursday session on a bounce from the 0.86 area. The pair looks very bearish though, and because of the 0.8650 level being so important, we aren’t willing to buy at this point. In fact, we are looking for weakness to sell from. The problems in the EU are simply too far along to consider buying the Euro at the moment. The Pound will suffer as a result of the Euro, and as a result this pair is a contest of two ugly currencies at the moment. The direction is down, but it could be a grind instead of a clean break.

EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 25th, 2011, Technical AnalysisEUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 25th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 24th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP fell hard during the Wednesday session as we pointed out it could on Tuesday. The Germans had a poor bond auction, propelling this pair lower as a result. The 0.86 level as slowed down the descent, and could produce a slight bounce, but the rout seems to be on, and the 0.85 level should be seen next. This pair can be sold on rallies in our opinion.

EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 24th, 2011, Technical Analysis EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 24th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 23rd, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP rose during the Tuesday session, but found a large amount of resistance at the 0.8650 level. The area was resistance recently, and has served as support in the past. Because of this, the shooting star candle that has formed for the day on Tuesday isn’t a big surprise. With this in mind, a break of the lows on Tuesday should see this pair fall back down to the 0.85 levels as we consolidate at these lower levels. If the top of the shooting star gets violated, we think the pair marches back to the 0.88 level as it has been a magnet over time as well.

EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 23rd, 2011, Technical Analysis EUR/GBP Forecast Nov. 23rd, 2011, Technical Analysis