New Zealand Dollar Finally Recovers

In today’s Trading Sniper video, we will focus on the strength of the New Zealand Dollar. NZD is coming back to life after rather unsuccessful past few weeks. All this is happening rather without any support from the fundamentals. We did not have any important news from the New Zealand economy, actually if so, then negative as New Zealand stock exchange is halted for the third day following the cyber attack. Currency does not care about that though and the buyers are continuing the shopping time.

We will start with the NZDUSD, where the pair is climbing higher after the bullish breakout of the upper line of the flag. That gives us a buy signal with a potential target on the long-term down trendline. Chances that we will get there are pretty high.

Now GBPNZD, where the price is going lower after creating the head and shoulders pattern. We already broke the up trendline and the neckline of this formation. Sentiment is negative and the price should go as low as to 38,2% Fibonacci.

EURNZD is having pretty much the same situation. We also have a head and shoulders pattern with the already broken neckline. After the breakout, the price fell sharply and is currently aiming the mid-term up trendline. It looks like we will get there pretty soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/NZD Smooth Ride Up Hits Fibonacci Target

The EUR/NZD has built a strong bullish impulse. But price action has reached one of the main targets at Wizz 8. Could this create a correction?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/NZD 4 hour chart

A shallow pullback at Wizz 8 is indeed expected – despite the strong momentum. A bull flag or triangle pattern would confirm the potential wave 4 (orange) pattern. A breakout above the Wizz 8 level indicates an immediate continuation. Whereas a break below the support (purple) invalidates it (red x).

SWAT traders had the opportunity to find long setups based on momentum confirmation. As mentioned in the live SWAT webinar, this was indicated by the green dots and blue diamond (green box). Price action swiftly hit the target at Wizz 8 for about a +120 pips win. Now the question is whether the bullish swing is part of a wave 3 or C (purple). This will depend on the price action at the support zone.

EUR/NZD 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.


Daily Forex Briefing 29/07/2020

In today’s Daily Briefing, we found those amazing setups we thought you’d find interesting!

EUR/PLN bouncing from a crucial support on the 4,4.

Brent with a possible false bearish breakout and an upswing but still below important resistance.

EUR/USD awaits the FOMC inside of a pennant.

USD/JPY is getting ready to test the 106 as a resistance.

EUR/CHF bouncing from the upper line of the flag.

GBP/NZD with a major, long-term buy signal.

EUR/JPY finishing a big inverse head and shoulders pattern.

EUR/NZD with a double bottom formation but still below important resistance.

SP500 drawing a head and shoulders pattern but buyers have an appetite for an upswing.

CAC in a slightly worse position but still fighting on a major up trendline.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/NZD Bearish Breakout after ABC Pullback at 144 EMA

The EUR/NZD is in an established downtrend. Price has recently made an ABC pullback towards a heavy resistance zone (red box). What’s next?

4 hour chart

EUR/NZD 4 hour chart

The EUR/NZD needs to break below the 21 ema zone and the support trend line (blue) to confirm the downtrend continuation (green check). A breakout, flag, and continuation pattern would be the best pattern for any potential short setups. The main targets are the round level of 1.70 and 1.6925.

A break above the long-term moving averages would break indicate a break above resistance and invalidate (red x) the bearish outlook. The current pullback is probably an ABC (blue) wave in wave 4 (purple). The bearish breakout could complete a wave 3 (purple).

EUR/NZD chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter


EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Breaks Down Towards 50 Day EMA

The Euro has broken down a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching down towards the 50 day EMA after there was a bit of a “risk off” type of feel early in the session. However, the 50 day EMA is starting to offer support, and therefore it’s likely that the market will continue to see a lot of choppy back-and-forth type of trading, but at this point the market looks to be paying attention to the 1.11 handle, which is the middle of the when it comes to the overall trading ranges between the 1.12 level above and the 1.10 level underneath. In other words, we are essentially at “fair value.”

EUR/USD Video 20.01.20

Looking at the chart, I would fully anticipate that there will be some type of bounce year but if we were to break down below the 1.1075 level, then it opens up the door down to the 1.10 level underneath. All things being equal, I think we are still going to be trading in this 200 point range going forward, because quite frankly this pair doesn’t know what to do with itself. If you are a short-term trader, you may get a short-term buying opportunity but don’t expect more than about 15 or 20 pips on any move. If we do break out of this 200 point range, then we could get something going but, in the meantime, I would ask for too much as this is a market that simply has nowhere to be anytime soon. The European Union is relatively weak right now, and the Federal Reserve is nowhere near tightening its monetary policy. In other words, we will see more of the same.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Three Great Setups With Weaker AUD and Stronger NZD

It can be nicely seen on our first instrument: AUDCHF, where the price is drawing a beautiful hammer on the daily chart. This long tail, shows us a rapid strengthening of the CHF, followed by a fast reversal. In overall, the situation is negative. Few days ago, AUDCHF broke the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern along with the horizontal support on the 0.669. Price closing below the orange support gave us a significant sell signal. Today’s hammer is really not changing much here.

I will continue with the AUD and show You an interesting setup on the AUDNZD. Here, yesterday, the sharp drop gave us a long-term sell signal. The pair broker the lower line of the descending triangle pattern and the lower line of a channel up formation. According to the all books about the technical analysis – that is a very negative situation promoting a further drop.

Two above setups show us a weakness of the AUD and the latest – additional strength of the NZD. Kiwi’s power can be confirmed by the situation on the EURNZD, where we do have a very handsome reversal. I must admit that this setup is really classic. We do have a bullish correction, ending on the down trendline, 23,6% Fibo and the horizontal support on the 1.68. In addition to that, the price draws a long head. Really it rarely gets much better than this. The pair is dropping quite significantly and there are big chances that we are going to witness new mid-term lows soon.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, Director of Research and Education at Axiory

EUR/NZD Counter Trend Move Should Happen Now

Dear Traders,

The EUR/NZD is at critical support. Monthly L5 level has already been reached so I expect a counter trend move off the W L3 support.

A bounce off the 0.6620 is possible right now. Counter trend trade should aim for 1.6690 as the first target. If the market makes a 4h close above 1.6716 then we could see 1.6790 and 1.6806. However, we might wait for couple of days for EUR/NZD to reach its target as today is Dec 31 and we have New Year holidays soon.

Happy NEW YEAR everyone! Don’t Forget to join the winning team in 2020!

The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.MTF template.

For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
Elite CurrenSea

EUR/NZD Bullish But at a Crucial Support

Dear Traders,

The EUR/NZD has spiked yesterday but then dropped during the night as NZD gained bullish momentum. However, it is still bullish.

The pair is at a crucial support which is formed by the confluence if ATR pivot, Weekly L4 and Wizz base level. A bounce from 1.7300-30 is bullish and targets are 1.7372 and 1.7427. Above 1.7427 we should expect W L3 camarilla to be hit – 1.7486. However a loss of 1.7275 might probably tank the pair to 1.7200 and make it neutral.

The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.MTF template.

For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
Elite CurrenSea

Aussie Jobs Have Traders Testing the 69-handle

AUDUSD testing 69c

The Aussie employment data has seemingly only fuelled the AUD bears belief for further downside, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 5.2%, driven by a higher participation rate at 66.0%. Granted, we saw a revision higher to last month’s print, but with 42,300 net jobs created in May, 94% of these jobs were part-time. The market has told us what they think though, and while we have seen a small downside in the AUD, the currency has reacted to a 3bp move lower in the Aussie 3-Year Treasury, which is threatening to break 1%. The implied probability of back-to-back cut from the RBA in July sits at 65%, so with the unemployment rate now 70bp above full employment, the market says a July cut is on and we have it reasonable to expect a lower cash rate.

One focus in yesterday’s commentary was the set-up on the EURNZD daily. After the break of the January and 23 May highs, price action lacked conviction from the bulls, resulting in a clear failed break of the 1.7209 resistance level. I was keen to see if the move through resistance, with recoil back to confirm support, and as we have seen, that wasn’t the case. It’s for this reason why I tend to wait for a close above a resistance level (on a set time frame) to feel there is an increased probability that we’ll see a continuation of the underlying trend.


EUR negative headlines

EURNZD aside, we saw a number of EUR negative headlines. Trump detailing that he will consider using sanctions if Germany commences the construction of a gas pipeline between Russia and Germany. As was credit rating agency Fitch issuing a warning on Italy’s fiscal position, although this was largely overlooked, but certainly worth noting given Fitch is due to review Italy’s sovereign rating on 9 August. We also heard from an ECB member Coeure, who suggested the global outlook was worsening and the central bank stands ready to support if needed.

EU inflation expectations at record lows

We can look at EU 5-year inflation expectations, which we monitor through swaps pricing. At 1.1590%, we have never seen expectations this low, and while this would have been impacted by a punchy sell-off in the oil market, current levels have to worry the ECB who would be doing the numbers on renewed asset purchases. Either way, I have my eye on a daily close above 1.7209 and what is obvious supply zone on EURNZD.

We have to consider the moves in EURUSD too, as the sellers waded in pretty much as soon as we breached Tuesday’s high of 1.1337. We saw an outside period on the pair and thus a move below yesterday’s session low of 1.1283 (in the period ahead) would suggest a test of horizontal support just below at 1.1260. The fact the EUR has a 57% weight on the US dollar index (USDX on MT4/5) has seen an interesting move in this market too, with the USDX rallying off the 200-day MA, in what can be considered a position adjustment. Granted, we have seen further tweets and narrative on trade from Trump, but it’s interesting to see USD strengthen, considering US CPI came in below expectations at 1.8% headline and 2% core, with US 2-year Treasuries closing 5bp lower at 1.87% and the implied probability of a July cut (from the Fed) pushing up a touch to 81.5%.


USDJPY looks interesting here, with a price printing a series of higher lows with increasing (candle) wicks, showing the buyers have probably got the upper hand for now. Again, a position adjustment, but the price is forming a bear flag, and a close through the lower channel support should be respected, likely resulting in a test of 107.85, and what has been strong support of late.

Jobless claims as a recession indicator

US economic data in the session ahead really centres on weekly US jobless claims, with the consensus estimate set at 215,000 claims, which would be in-line with the prior week’s print of 218,000 claims. One chart that gets attention here is the 4-week rolling average of jobless claims (white line) vs the 36-month average (or three years). Here, over the past 30 years, when the rolling 4-week average crosses the 3-year average, it can be the precursor for a recession as companies retrench. That isn’t happening yet.

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil getting slammed

It doesn’t surprise one bit that our flow in WTI and Brent crude has picked up, as a 4% move will generally be of interest to clients. A 2.2m build in the weekly EIA crude inventory data was higher than the estimates for a 713,000-barrel draw, with the build at Cushing taking total US crude stockpiles to 485.5m barrels – the highest level since December 2017. When there is enough uncertainty around global trade, and we see renewed supply concerns, then the bid will come out of the market, and it was all sellers. All eyes on whether the price will break last week’s pin bar candle low of $50.60, which could accelerate the selling into $50. We should consider that the UAE did disclose that OPEC is close to agreeing to an extension of the production cuts, which will be a clear theme when we come to the next OPEC meeting, so there are risks we see headlines designed to support the move lower.

Boris Johnson to lead the Tories in a new general election?

We’ve seen renewed interest to short GBP, with GBPUSD and the GBP crosses reacting to a failed motion from Labour (309 to 298), which had it passed would have effectively blocked a ‘no deal’ Brexit. So, ‘no deal’ is still on the table, and this will be quite a useful tool for Boris Johnson in his negotiating tactics with the EU. That assume Boris gets the gig, although that seems elevated given some 80 Tories have publicly backed him.

Campaigning starts tonight, and we should see the likes of Ester McVey, Andrea Leadsom and Mark Harper being eliminated. All roads lead to a general election or second referendum though, so expect higher GBP vols.

Sign up here for my Daily Fix or Start trading now

Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone

EUR/NZD 1.7085-1.7100 is the POC Zone for Bulls

Dear Traders,

The EUR/NZD has been supported above the important level. 1.7055 is the W l3 and historical support pivot..–>

EU Parliamentary elections had no effect on EUR crosses so the focus is on the NZD fundamentals. As the EU trade balance continued to expand positively last week, we did see flash manufacturing continued to contract in Germany, along with its slowing business confidence.  New Zealand has on the other hand seen a contract in Global Dairy Trade Index for the first time this year, but more so, the prices of other main exports such as Lumber has been contacting significantly in the last year, whilst Live Cattle has continued to reduce since Late February.  This is putting pressure on NZD.

Technically, the pair is having a correction in uptrend and 1.7085-1.7100 is the POC zone where we should look for a potential bounce. Targets are 1.7139 and 1.7160. If bulls want to proceed with uptrend momentum, then 1.7055 should hold.

The analysis has been done with the
CAMMACD.MTF template.

For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
Elite CurrenSea

New Zealand Dollar Crumbles as RBNZ Signals Possible Rate Cut

Open your FXTM account today

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled across the board during the early parts of Tuesday morning after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish shift caught markets by surprise.

With the central bank abandoning its long-standing neutral stance on interest rates and signalling a possible cut, the New Zealand Dollar is likely to weaken further. This is already being reflected in the NZDUSD which dropped a staggering 100+ pips in a matter of minutes following the RBNZ’s dovish statement. Focusing on the technical picture, the currency pair is turning bearish on the daily charts with prices trading marginally below 0.6810 higher low as of writing. Sustained weakness below this level will signal further downside with the next key point of interest at 0.6750. Alternatively, if 0.6810 proves to be reliable support, prices have the potential to rebound back towards 0.6850 before resuming the downtrend.

NZDJPY knocks on 75.00’s door 

The NZDJPY collapsed roughly 110 pips following the RBNZ’s dovish shift to trade around 75.00 as of writing. Prices are looking increasingly bearish on the daily charts with a breakdown below 75.00 opening a path towards 74.30. On the other hand, a rebound from 75.00 could send the NZDJPY back to 75.40.

EURNZD pushes above 1.6550 

We see weakness in the New Zealand Dollar pushing the EURNZD higher in the near term. For as long as the New Zealand Dollar continues to weaken, EURNZD bulls will remain in the driving seat moving forward. A solid daily close above the 1.6550 is seen pushing prices higher towards 1.6730.

NZDCAD sinks towards 0.9100 

The NZDCAD is on route to sinking lower if bears are able to secure a solid close below 0.9100. This pair has broken the bullish channel on the daily charts with bears eyeing 0.9100 and lower. A solid daily close below this point will most likely invite a decline towards 0.9000.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

EUR/NZD T-89 Pattern Rejecting From Support

Dear Traders,

The EUR/NZD has formed a bullish breakout pattern that has broken above the trend line. A rejection from the POC zone could target higher levels.

1.6535-50 is the zone where we might see a bounce. The first target is 1.6562 followed by 1.6588 and 1.6602. However only a break above 1.6605 might lead the price towards 1.6640. As long as 1.6490 holds the price bulls should be safe. The EUR/NZD is more volatile pair than the EUR/USD so stops should be higher. If the price continues to ascend an emerging ascending scallop pattern may appear.

The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.MTF template.

For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
Elite CurrenSea

EUR Climbs Higher

Minutes stopped being a Tier 1 data quite some time ago. Now, markets have other issues to be worried about. In this Trading Sniper video, we do have two pairs with the EUR and one with safe haven currencies.

First, EURUSD. The pair created a nice inverse head and shoulders pattern on the H1/H4 chart. The price already broke the neckline and tested that twice as a closest support. Both tests were positive for the buyers and gave us long tails on the H1 candles. The buy signal is ON, with the mid-term downtrend line as the closest target.

EURNZD is the next pair but the situation here is very similar. The price is also creating an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline (along with the 38,2% Fibo) was broken today and that gave a nice bullish momentum for the buyers. The mid-term buy signal is ON.

The last pair is the CHFJPY, so a clash of the safe haven assets. Here, the price broke the upper line of the symmetric triangle pattern and the horizontal resistance around 110.3. After that, buyers successfully tested that as a support. Current price action tells us that we should expect a further upswing here and that is our outlook on this instrument.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

EUR/NZD Possible Correction After a Huge Drop

Hi traders,

The RBNZ announced no change in their overnight cash rate but kept the next rate change window in the 2019-2020 range. The market including algos think that this is less dovish and the NZD jumped against majors.

However as long as the price is kept above 1.6540 we might see a correction as the price had been in uptrend before the RBNZ decision and statement. Usually, after a big spike there is a correction. 1.6580-90 zone might provide a correction towards 1.6660 ,1.6700 and 1.6720. However a correction will be subdued if the price closes below 1.6540. We need to keep in mind that tomorrow is Friday so profit taking will take place. If short traders close their shorts, the correction might reach the target.

EUR/NZD Possible Correction After a Huge Drop

The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.CTT template.

Join Elite CurrenSea’s Forex and CFD seminar in The Netherlands on February 16th.

For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
Elite CurrenSea

Currencies Grom Antipodes Gain Traction

Actually, it was not the decision itself but the statement from the RBA. Market participants think that after this statement, the next movement should be hawkish and that is why they bought AUD. NZD also went higher driven mostly by the strong correlation between those two.

The technical part will start with the AUDNZD, where we can see a nice upswing. This does not happen in a random place and is present on an ultra-important horizontal support. The buy signal is ON but patient traders can wait for one confirmation – breakout of the yellow horizontal resistance. Once that will happen, the upswing should gain momentum.

Now the USDCHF. V shape reversal that started in the middle of January, entered the new stage. We are on a strong horizontal resistance and buyers will try to break it for the first time in February. It was already tested before in January and those tests resulted with the bearish reversals. That can be used as a good omen for the short-term sellers. We have to mention that this resistance is exactly on the parity, so psychological aspect plays an additional role here.

The last one is the EURNZD, which was mentioned on our website yesterday. Here, we do have a bounce from the mid-term down trendline and the breakout from the bullish flag. What is more, we do have a double top formation and both those bullish movements are false breakouts. All that together gives us a strong sell signal strengthened additionally by the hawkish RBA mentioned in the first paragraph.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Important NZD Pairs’ Technical Update: 20.12.2018


While inability to sustain 200-day SMA dragged NZDUSD to five-week low, 50-day SMA & short-term ascending support-line presently restricts the pair’s further downside around 0.6730-20. Should the pair registers a daily closing beneath the 0.6720, the 0.6700 and 100-day SMA level of 0.6665 might entertain sellers before pleasing them with 0.6600 mark. On the contrary, 0.6820 and the 0.6835, comprising 200-day SMA, seem nearby resistances for the pair to clear, breaking which the 0.6850, the 0.6880 and the 0.6900 can play their roles. However, the 0.6965-75 and the 0.7000 round-figure may confine the pair’s advances past-0.6900.


Break of two-month old resistance-line helps the EURNZD to confront 50-day SMA level of 1.6915, which if broken on a D1 basis could propel the quote to 1.7115-20 region. In case buyers refrain to respect the 1.7120 barrier, the 1.7225, including 100-day SMA, followed by 1.7300, might challenge the Bulls. Assuming the pair’s failure to cross 1.6915, the 1.6790-75 support-zone can regain market attention as break of which may not hesitate fetching prices to the 1.6630 and the 1.6500 rest-points. If at all the pair continues declining under 1.6500, the 1.6420 and the 1.6325 may flash on Bears’ radar to target.


AUDNZD’s recent pullback couldn’t surpass a downward slanting trend-line since early-November, which in-turn drags the pair towards 1.0490 and 1.0450 supports. Given the pair’s extended downturn beneath 1.0450, the 1.0430, the 1.0400 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.0380 may appear on the chart. Alternatively, the 1.0580-85 area can limit the pair’s upside beyond 1.0550 trend-line break but successful clearance of 1.0585 may escalate the recovery to 1.0625 and the 1.0670. Though, the 1.0690-1.0700 could try questioning the pair’s strength after 1.0670, breaking which 1.0765 and the 1.0800 might become optimists favorites.


Having bounced off immediate support-line, the NZDUSD is again aiming for the 0.9185 resistance prior to confronting the 0.9250-55 multiple-top region; though, a sustained break of 0.9255 enables the pair to look for 61.8% FE level of 0.9320 as a landmark. Meanwhile, pair’s dip below 0.9070 TL support can trigger its south-run to 0.9000 and the 0.8915 levels. Moreover, the 0.8860, the 0.8770 and the 0.8745 are likely consecutive supports that could try holding the pair under 0.8915.

Draghi Can Break the Euro Trend

The demand for risky assets is gradually recovering, supported by the US-China’s “trade truce” which is not in hurry to ends. Futures on S&P500 rose by 0.4% this morning, after growth by 0.8% the day earlier. The Shanghai A50 is growing by more than 2% in hope of Chinese government stimulus.

Positive dynamics of stock markets caused the US Dollar to be rolled back from monthly highs on DXY. EURUSD has received the local support near 1.1300 levels yesterday.

Over the past month, the pair fluctuations’ amplitude has decreased noticeably, but it looks more likely to squeezed spring, rather than calm.

Today, in the EU markets’ focus is the ECB meeting, which often causes strong volatility. Mario Draghi is expected to confirm that the Central Bank will finally stop buying assets by the end of this year. For EUR, definitely, the vital impact will be from any comments on the monetary policy prospects.

Earlier, the ECB was about to start raising rates next autumn at least, but now these dates are in risk to move after the Fed’s rhetoric softening and general slowdown of the world economy. In this case, the euro can be hit, so that the technical factors will come into play.

Falling below 1.13 mark, which was an important support previously, can launch a new wave of decline. Two previous stages of the retreat were turned into the 7%- and 5%- fall of the single currency.

Commensurate with the previous two, the new downward spiral may send EURUSD below 1.08. More distant bearish targets and news key support are possible as well: as low as to 1.05 on the chart.

Note that the ECB tone mitigation seems the most likely to take place.

Also, we can not exclude completely that Draghi will prefer to take a wait and observe how the things unfold: confidence in the EU economic growth and the inflationary pressure build-up will significantly reduce the difference between the ECB and the Fed policies. Under these conditions, EURUSD will be able to rebound to the upper boundary of the November’s trading range near 1.15. Growth above this mark will display clearly a significant outlook revision and, perhaps, become a pivot point of the recent trend.

This article was written by FxPro

Trade Concerns Resurface, Geopolitics Weigh On Stocks, Trump Pushes Forward With Tariff Plans

Asian Markets Are Mixed As Trade Concerns Resurface

Asian indices were mixed on Tuesday as trade concerns resurface. Ex-China was up an average 0.80% in the wake of the US rebound on Monday while Chinese and Hong Kong-based markets were more cautious. The Shang Hai closed with a loss near -0.04%, the Heng Seng near -0.17%, as new shots are fired in the trade war.

US President Donald Trump says he may put a 10% tax on Apple products coming out of China and that put pressure on the entire Apple supply chain. Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor and Pegatron were both able to recover their losses before the close of the session but others were not so fortunate. Catcher Technology fell nearly -2.25% while Foxconn, assembler of iPhones, shed -0.42%.

Geopolitics Weighs On European Markets

European markets were drifting lower at midday as trade concerns, Brexit uncertainty, and Italian budget issues weigh on sentiment. Losses were broad but small relative to market moves in recent weeks. The DAX was leading with a loss near -0.35% but the FTSE and CAC were close behind.

On the trade front, President Trump says the Brexit may affect the US ability to trade with the UK and does not appear to support the deal despite the EU’s affirmation over the weekend. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May still has many hurdles to overcome and faces a parliamentary vote on the deal in two weeks.

In Italy, lawmakers are sticking to their 2019 budget plans despite word on Monday they were cutting deficit targets in order to avoid sanctions from the EU. The news, amid other concerns, had the financial sector trading lower led by 3.0% losses in Metro bank and BBVA. In earnings news a profit warning from Thomas Cook. The iconic travel and leisure brand says profit will fall short of guidance and suspended its dividend causing stocks across the sector to fall.

Trump Moves Forward With Tariff Plans

In the US, markets were trading lower in early futures action as President Trump indicates he will move forward with plans to raise tariffs. Trump said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that it was highly unlikely the US would delay raising tariffs to 25% despite the meeting scheduled for him and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting is not expected to produce concrete changes in trade relations but it is expected to deliver positive developments, Trump’s comments have cast a shadow of doubt on the outcome now.

While traders are focused on the Trump/Xi meeting other events are likely to move the market as well. Tomorrow there is a speech from Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell that will be closely monitored for signs of Fed dovishness. On top of that, Thursday is the release of the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favored tool for monitoring inflation, as well as the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The SPX and Dow Jones Industrials were indicated to open with a loss near -0.42% while the Nasdaq was looking at losses near -0.60% on trouble in tech related to the Apple tariff threat.

Technical Overview of NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD & NZD/CHF: 21.11.2018


While failure to surpass 200-day SMA dragged NZDUSD to a week’s low, the pair seems bouncing off the 0.6780 and may again rise towards challenging the 0.6885 barrier, including 200-day SMA. If at all the pair manage to conquer 0.6885 hurdle, it can escalate the recovery to 0.6920 & 0.6975 but the 0.7000 round-figure and 0.7050-55 horizontal-region could confine the quote’s further advances. In case the pair drops beneath 0.6780, the 0.6725-20 and the 0.6700-0.6690 are likely following supports to appear on the chart. Assuming the sellers’ refrain to respect the 0.6690, the 100-day SMA level of 0.6655 and the 0.6600 might become their favorites.


With its inability to sustain recent bounce, the EURNZD may revisit the 1.6575-55 rest-area, which if broken can open the gate for the pair’s plunge to 1.6390 and the 1.6240 levels. Should prices continue declining past-1.6240, the 1.6140 and the 1.6000 psychological magnet might flash on the Bears’ radar to target. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 1.6760-65 could help the pair to aim for 1.6800 and the 1.6850 prior to looking at the 1.6960 and the 1.7000 mark. During the pair’s successful rally above 1.7000, the 1.7105-15 resistance-confluence, including six-week long descending TL & five-month old horizontal-line, may gain market attention as break of which can highlight 1.7210 & 1.7290 numbers to north.


NZDCAD has yet to cross the 0.9080 and the 0.9110 resistances in order to justify its strength in confronting the 0.9170-80 resistance-zone. Given the pair’s extended north-run after 0.9180, the 0.9240 & the 0.9275-80 could be on Bulls’ list. Meanwhile, the 0.8980-70 can act as adjacent support for the pair, breaking which 200-day SMA level of 0.8930 and the 0.8860 may try limiting the downturn. If selling pressure persists beneath 0.8860, the 0.8830-20 and the 0.8735 might prove their presence.


Even after taking a U-turn from 200-day SMA, the NZDCHF is still to close beyond 0.6810-20 if it is to question the strength of 0.6840 and the 0.6890 resistances. However, 0.6955-65 may threaten buyers above 0.6890 whereas the 0.7000 and the 0.7040 can welcome their follow-on victory. On the contrary, a daily close below 200-day SMA level of 0.6740 could fetch the quote to 0.6690 and then to the 0.6660-50 support-region. Let’s say the 0.6650 fall short of turning down the bears, in that case 0.6600 and the 0.6580, comprising 100-day SMA, may lure them.

Prices moved as expected. What’s next?

All setups from the yesterday’s Trading Sniper video were spot on. Oil went significantly lower as expected. We anticipate a further decline. EURNZD also went down breaking the lower line of the rectangle pattern. Currently, we do have a small reversal, which can be a good occasion to open short positions with higher prices to obtain a desirable risk to reward ratio.

EURUSD also did a great job. The price broke the down trendline and the horizontal neckline, which brought us a buy signal. We later used those areas as supports, which gave us a confirmation. Currently, the price is on the highest levels since the 24th of October and we do have big chances that this movement will be continued.

AUDNZD broke the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. That was anticipated as we were under the influence of the big head and shoulders pattern. Potential target for this drop is around 200 pips lower, which makes it a good occasion for the long-term sellers.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis