Economic Data Puts the U.S Economy Back in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide direction through the Asian session, leaving the markets to take their cues from the U.S.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% ¥105.48 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.7060, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.14% to $0.6555.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

With a lack of major stats, French and Italian consumer confidence figures for September will draw attention early in the session.

With little else for the markets to focus, COVID-19 and Brexit will remain areas of focus on the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1668.

For the Pound

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and COVID-19 on the day. As things stand, new containment measures can only be negative for the UK economy and the Pound near-term.

For the bulls, the only real hope would be a breaking of the Brexit deadlock.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.07% to $1.2756.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include August durable goods and core durable goods orders.

On the monetary policy front, expect any FOMC member chatter to also influence. COVID-19 news updates and any chatter from the U.S government will also provide direction.

The Dollar Spot Index was flat at 94.352 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s another particularly quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out today.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices.

Key areas of focus remain U.S – China relations and COVID-19.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.11% to C$1.3347 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

COVID-19, Geopolitics, Powell, and U.S Jobless Claims will Keep the Markets Busy

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a quieter start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action in the early part of the day.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Trade data was in focus in the early hours of this morning. In August, New Zealand’s trade balance slid from a NZ$447m surplus to a NZ$353m deficit. Year-on-year, the trade surplus widened from NZ$50m to NZ$1,340m.

According to NZStats,

  • A close to NZ$1bn slump in imports led to the largest annual trade surplus since 2014.
  • The value of monthly goods imports fell NZ$940m (-16%) from August 2019, with imports declining across all the main economic categories.
  • By contrast, higher exports of kiwifruit and aircraft supported a NZ$349m (+8.6%) rise in exports from August 2019.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.65500 to $0.65507 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.35% to $0.6540.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% ¥105.43 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar down by 0.23% to $0.7056.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index and sub-index figures for September are due out.

With little else for the markets to focus on in the early part of the session, expect any slump in sentiment to weigh.

Away from the economic calendar, the latest COVID-19 numbers, and any chatter from member states on curbing the spread will be key.

On the geopolitical risk front, the markets will also need to monitor chatter on Brexit and any antagonizing messages from Beijing or Washington.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.1662.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

On the monetary policy front, however, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak later this afternoon.

Following the government’s new COVID-19 containment measures, expect any chatter on monetary policy to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, there is also Brexit and the latest COVID-19 figures that will garner plenty of interest. The market fear will be that the British Government may be forced into delivering stricter containment measures should the number of new cases continue to rise.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.05% to $1.2718.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include August new home sales and the weekly jobless claims figures.

Expect the weekly jobless claims numbers to have the greatest impact on the day. An unexpected rise amidst the recent rise in new COVID-19 cases would test market risk appetite.

Later in the day, FED Chair Powell is due to deliver another day of testimony that will also draw plenty of attention. U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is also scheduled to speak, which could be interesting…

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.01% to 94.383 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out today.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment.

Key areas of focus remain U.S – China relations and COVID-19.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.04% to C$1.3391 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Demographics Squeeze Advanced Economies’ Long-Term Growth Potential; Big Test for Italy & Japan

Scope Ratings has examined the impact of demographic trends on long-term economic growth in major economies, assuming productivity growth and employment rates remain constant.

“We show that GDP growth rates are likely to decrease in all countries in the coming decades, but large differences exist between advanced economies. Comparing the best and worst performers – the US on the one side and Italy and Japan on the other – over time highlights the magnitude of the problem: by 2050, US GDP could be significantly higher compared to its 2020 level in real terms, while, in the absence of significant productivity and employment gains, Japan and Italy would likely have lower real GDP levels than potential GDP today,” says Giulia Branz, analyst at Scope Ratings.

At the same time, countries can enhance productivity to maintain positive long-term growth and implement policies to address adverse demographic trends and employment trends – two key variables that are captured in the ESG-risk pillar in Scope’s forthcoming update to its sovereign rating methodology.

Demographics explain a large part of structural downward trends in growth

Demographic factors explain a large part of the downward trend in advanced economies’ recent economic growth rates and are likely to remain important over the coming decades according to Scope’s study of the 1960-2050 period, focusing on working-age populations, productivity, and employment rates.

“Our model holds productivity and employment rates constant at 2014-19 levels – which we recognize is a bold assumption as these can change significantly as a result of government policies – but this allows us to estimate a country’s growth prospects based only on its demographic trends that are less likely to fluctuate as significantly,” says Branz.

Significant differences in growth prospects between countries

Growth prospects are structurally declining in all advanced economies, but significant differences exist across selected countries:

  • The US, UK, and France are likely to continue to grow over the long term thanks to relatively favorable demographic trends.
  • Germany and Spain are likely to see GDP stagnate over the coming decades. Adverse demographic trends are likely to offset some of the expected gains in productivity and employment (assuming the latter are sustained over the coming period).
  • Japan and especially Italy would likely experience a marked decline in GDP levels over the next decades based only on adverse demographic trends were such trends not offset with productivity and employment gains that have been distinctly lacking over recent years.

“Our findings have important implications for public debt dynamics and, as a result, sovereign ratings,” says Branz. “Policies that improve countries’ productivity levels, demographic trends, and employment rates are critical to ensuring the long-term sustainability of public debt.”

Download the full report from Scope Ratings.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Giulia Branz is Associate Analyst in Sovereign and Public Sector ratings at Scope Ratings GmbH.

Economic Data, the FED Chair, COVID-19, and Brexit in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busier start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and the RBNZ were in action in the early part of the day.

For the Japanese Yen

Prelim private sector PMIs for September were in focus this morning.

The Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.2 to 47.3, with the Services PMI increasing from 45.0 to 45.6.

According to the September prelim survey,

  • Across the manufacturing sector, production and new orders saw a marked decline once more.
  • By contrast, the rate of job shedding eased to a 4-month low, with business confidence hitting the highest level in over 2-years.
  • Weak external demand weighed heavily on new business across the service sector, which continued to slide at a marked pace.
  • Service sector employment contracted for a 7th consecutive month in September, with incomplete work continuing to decline.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.074 to ¥105.142 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.21% ¥105.15 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Kiwi Dollar

The RBNZ held interest rates steady at 0.25% and the LSAP at NZ$100bn, which was in line with market expectations.

Salient points from the RBNZ Statement included:

  • Economic information available since the August statement confirmed that economic activity remained well below pre-COVID-19 levels.
  • Ongoing restrictions, particularly in Auckland, have continued to dampen economic activity and business and consumer confidence.
  • Any significant change in the domestic and global economic outlook remains hinged on the containment of the virus, which is highly uncertain.
  • International border restrictions continue to materially curtail migration and tourism.
  • Commodity prices for NZ exports remain robust. This has been partially offset, however, by the Kiwi Dollar exchange rate moderating the return to local export producers.
  • The Committee expects a rise in unemployment and an increase in firm closures.
  • Members agreed that monetary policy will need to provide significant support for a long time to come. They also agreed that they are prepared to provide additional stimulus.
  • Additional support could come in the form of Funding for Lending Programme (FLP), a negative OCR, and purchases of foreign assets.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66022 to $0.6643 upon release of the statement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.12% to $0.6624.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.53% to $0.7133.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Ahead of the European open, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate figures are due out for October.

While we can expect plenty of EUR sensitivity to consumer confidence figures, the focus will be on the PMI numbers.

Later in the morning, prelim September private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be the key drivers.

While manufacturing PMIs remain important, expect the Service PMIs and the Eurozone’s composite to have the greatest impact.

Another spike in COVID-19 numbers could mute the effects of any positive numbers, however. A reintroduction of lockdown measures would materially hit both services and manufacturing…

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.22% to $1.1682.

For the Pound

It’s also a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim private sector PMIs for September are due out later today.

Expect the focus to be on the services PMI.

Away from the economic calendar, there’s also Brexit and COVID-19 to consider. Last Monday, the government reintroduced containment measures to curb the spike in new cases. This week, further measures have been introduced that could materially impact consumption and service sector activity.

With the BoE having already floated the idea of negative rates, expect any further containment measures to fuel expectations of a rate cut.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.08% to $1.2723.

Across the Pond

It’s a busier day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include prelim private sector PMI figures for September.

The markets will be looking for a pickup in service sector activity to support riskier assets.

Later in the day, FED Chair Powell is due to deliver testimony that will also draw plenty of attention.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.10% to 94.084 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out today.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of the prelim PMI numbers from the Eurozone and the U.S.

Expect any further spikes in new COVID-19 cases to also influence ahead of the weekly EIA crude oil inventory numbers.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.05% to C$1.3311 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

FED Chair Powell Puts the Dollar in Focus as COVID-19 Continues to Rile the Markets

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide direction in the early part of the day.

A lack of stats left the markets to consider the market moves through the European and U.S sessions on Monday.

Risk aversion plagued as investors considered the possibility of a reintroduction of lockdown measures across the EU.

Recent spikes in new COVID-19 cases stemming from governments looking to boost economic activity could ultimately derail any recovery.

The Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.11% ¥104.53 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was down by 0.21% to $0.7209, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.01% to $0.6667.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Eurozone consumer confidence figures are due out late into the European session.

The bigger question, however, is whether the latest survey captures the effects of the latest COVID-19 spike.

A continued rise in new cases from the weekend will likely continue to test EUR support levels.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.08% to $1.1762.

For the Pound

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. CBI Industrial Trend Order figures for September are due out.

It remains to be seen whether there will be any sensitivity to the numbers, however. The threat of further lockdown measures as a result of an upward trend in new COVID-19 cases will have a far greater impact.

To make matters worse, the Pound also has Brexit to face in the week as the Internal Market Bill continues t cause political friction.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.07% to $1.2808.

Across the Pond

It’s a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include August’s existing home sales figures.

The numbers are unlikely to have a muted impact on the Dollar and market risk sentiment, however.

FED Chair Powell is in the spotlight once more, giving testimony on Capitol Hill. With the latest spike in new COVID-19 cases, Powell could take an even more cautious stance on the economic outlook. In the summer, the FED Chair had continued to cite COVID-19 as the greatest threat to an economic recovery.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 93.623 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out today.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day. A real threat of a reintroduction of lockdown measures in key economies does not bode well…

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.3316 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Geopolitics Keeps the Pound and the Dollar in Focus, with Lagarde to Test the EUR Later

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide direction in the early part of the day.

While the PBoC was in action, there was little market reaction to Beijing’s threat of retaliatory measures from the weekend was the key driver.

Beijing’s threat came in response to the U.S administration’s targeting of TikTok and WeChat. It had started long before, however, with the targeting of Huawei and CFO Meng Wanzhou.

Out of China

The PBoC held the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates steady at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively. This was in line with forecasts and recent forward guidance from the PBoC.

Economic data from China has continued to support an in-country driven economic recovery.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73066 to $0.73058 upon release of the PBoC decision. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.25% to $0.7307.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.13% ¥104.43 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.21% to $0.6773.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction.

Through the early part of the day, the latest COVID-19 numbers and U.S – China tensions will be in focus.

Late in the European session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak. There are unlikely to be too many surprises, however.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.15% to $1.1858.

For the Pound

It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound firmly in the hands of Brexit and the passage of the Internal Market Bill.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.29% to $1.2954.

Across the Pond

It’s a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. There are also no material stats from the U.S to provide the Greenback with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of chatter from Beijing and Capitol Hill. Any news COVID-19 concerns will also influence ahead of FED Chair Powell’s testimony in the week.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.09% to 92.838 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead, with August new house price figures due out later today.

Don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however. Any renewed tensions between the U.S and China could question China’s willingness to crank up the import of U.S goods. Such an outcome would not bode well for global trade terms and crude oil prices.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.18% to C$1.3180 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data and Geopolitics Put the Loonie and the Pound in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a quieter start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen was in action.

For the Japanese Yen

In August, the annual core rate of inflation fell by 0.4% in August, which was in line with forecasts. Inflation had stalled in July.

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication, the annual rate of inflation softened from 0.3% to 0.2% in August.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥104.724 to ¥104.731 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.02% ¥104.72 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.7326, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.33% to $0.6777.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include August wholesale inflation figures for Germany.

Following the Eurozone’s figures from Thursday, disappointing numbers would be a test for the EUR early in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, however, market risk sentiment will remain a key driver on the day. Brexit and concerns over the global economic recovery will likely linger if economic data disappoints through the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.1856.

For the Pound

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with August retail sales figures in focus later this morning.

Following the BoE’s uncertain outlook on the economy and the talk of negative rates, we can expect Pound sensitivity to the numbers.

With the UK government having to reintroduce containment measures and Brexit uncertainty ever-present, the Pound remains under pressure.

On the Brexit front, updates on the passage of the Internal Market Bill will also continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.08% to $1.2984.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include prelim September consumer sentiment figures from the U.S.

With the FED’s dovish outlook on the economy, a pickup in consumer sentiment at the end of the quarter would ease the pain.

Away from the economic calendar, geopolitics will also influence.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.10% to 92.877 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a busier day ahead, with August retail sales and wholesale sales figures in focus later today.

We can expect the retail sales figures to be the key driver on the day.

Barring impressive numbers, however, expect the recently dovish central bank chatter to limit any upside.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.08% to C$1.3156 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Monetary Policy and Economic Data Put the Pound and the Dollar in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, and the Japanese Yen were in action.

For the Kiwi Dollar

2nd quarter GDP numbers were in focus this morning, as the markets look ahead to next week’s RBNZ policy decision.

In the 2nd quarter, the economy contracted by a record 12.2%, quarter-on-quarter, following a revised 1.4% contraction in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a 12.8% contraction.

According to NZ Stats,

  • New Zealand started the June 2020 quarter in alert level 4 lockdown, with restrictions on the activities of households and businesses.
  • Social distancing controls eased on 8th June while NZ borders remained closed in the quarter.
  • Industries including retail, accommodation & restaurants, and transport saw significant deterioration.
  • Other industries such as food and beverage and manufacturing were essential services and less affected.
  • Household spending in the quarter tumbled by 12.1%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.67337 to $0.67361 upon release of the numbers. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.59% to $0.6693.

For the Aussie Dollar

Total employment increased by 111.0K in August, following a 114.7k rise in July, Economists had forecast a 50.0k fall.

Full employment rose by 36.2%, following a 43.5k increase in July. In July, the unemployment rate slid from 7.5% to 6.8%. Economists had forecast an unemployment rate of 7.7%. In July, the unemployment rate had risen from 7.4% to 7.5%.

According to the ABS,

  • The number of unemployed people decreased by 86,500 people.
  • Compared to July 2019, full-time employment declined by 234,200, with part-time employment falling by 104,100.
  • The employment to population ratio increased by 0.5 points to 60.3%.
  • While the unemployment rate fell, the participation rate increased by 0.1 points to 64.8%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72816 to an early high $0.73112 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.41% to $0.7276.

For the Japanese Yen

The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. Next up, the all-important press conference.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.046 to ¥105.069 upon the BoJ policy decision. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% ¥105.06 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include finalized August inflation figures for the Eurozone.

Barring marked deviation from prelim figures, the stats should have a muted impact on the EUR.

Expect market reaction to the FOMC economic and interest rate projections and press conference to continue to influence.

Closer to home, Brexit chatter and the BoE will also be of influence on the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.44% to $1.1764.

For the Pound

It’s not a busy day ahead but a big day ahead on the economic calendar. While there are no material stats due out of the UK, the BoE will deliver its September monetary policy decision this afternoon.

Recently gloomy chatter has raised the prospect of some dovish commentary and the possible talk of further support. With Brexit yet to have a clear path and the UK reintroducing containment measures, plenty of uncertainty remains.

It remains to be seen, however, whether there will be the promise of a near-term move. The vote count may be the 1st clue. Expect any dissent in favor of a rate cut to pressure the Pound.

The monetary policy meeting minutes will be the key guidance on what lies ahead, however.

On the Brexit front, updates on the passage of the Internal Market Bill will also influence.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.34% to $1.2923.

Across the Pond

It’s also a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include September Philly FED Manufacturing Index numbers and the all-important weekly jobless claims figures.

While we have seen market sensitivity to the Philly numbers, expect the jobless claims numbers to have the greatest impact.

Other stats include August building permit and housing start numbers. We would expect the stats to have a muted impact on the Dollar, however.

Away from the economic calendar, geopolitics will also influence.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.26% to 93.452 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of geopolitics and continued reaction to the FED.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.37% to C$1.3227 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the GBP, Loonie, and USD in Focus Ahead of the FOMC…

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Current account figures for the 2nd quarter were in focus. Quarter-on-quarter, the current account surplus widened from NZ$1.56bn to NZ$1.83bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to NZ$0.60bn.

Year-on-year, the current account deficit narrowed from NZ$8.51bn to NZ$5.77bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to NZ$7.37bn.

The current account as a percentage of GDP stood at -1.9% in the 2nd quarter. This was up from -2.7% in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a percentage of GDP of -2.5%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.67124 to $0.67128 upon release of the numbers. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.01% to $0.6715.

For the Japanese Yen

In August, Japan’s trade surplus widened from ¥10.9bn to ¥248.3bn. Economists had forecast a deficit of ¥77.6bn.

According to figures released by the  Ministry of Finance,

  • In August, exports slid by 14.8%, year-on-year.
    • While exports to Asia fell by 7.8%, exports to China rose by 5.1%.
    • A 4% fall in exports to HK, a 13.8% fall to South Korea, a 31.3% slump in exports to Thailand, and a 26.1% decline to Singapore weighed.
    • Exports to Australia slumped by 20.9%, with exports to the U.S tumbling by 21.3%.
    • Things were not much better to Europe, with exports to Western Europe sliding by 15.3%.
  • Imports tumbled by 20.8% in August, year-on-year.
    • While imports from Asia fell by 11.2%, imports from Australia tumbled by 43.4%.
    • Imports from the U.S slid by 22%, with imports from Europe falling by 22.2%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.402 to ¥105.308 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.14% ¥105.29 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.7305.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include July trade data for the Eurozone.

We don’t expect too much influence on the EUR, however, barring particularly dire numbers.

On the day, the monetary policy and geopolitics will be key drivers. Brexit will be a key area of interest, with the FOMC policy decision and economic and interest rate projections of particular interest.

We saw the Dollar tumble in response to the lower for longer and policy framework revision. Following last week’s ECB press conference, a dovish FED could see the EUR head back towards $1.20 levels.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.1841.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include August inflation figures.

While consumer prices will influence, expect wholesale inflation figures to have a greater impact early in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit will remain the key driver, however. There’s been plenty of chatter over the Internal Market Bill and the PM’s desire to protect Northern Ireland from the EU.

Any further updates will be of influence as the Internal Market Bill gets sliced and diced in Westminster.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.09% to $1.2900.

Across the Pond

It’s also a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include August retail sales figures.

Expect the numbers to influence risk sentiment ahead of the main event. Consumer spending is a key contributor and will need to continue to rebound to support the economic recovery.

The main event of the day is the FOMC monetary policy decision, however. With the FOMC expected to stand pat, the market focus will be on the FOMC economic and interest rate projections.

Following the announcement of the new monetary policy framework, the markets are expecting interest rate forecasts to remain dovish.

The FOMC’s outlook on the economic recovery is an area of uncertainty…

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.12% to 93.166 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a busier day ahead, with key stats including August inflation and July Foreign Securities Purchases figures.

Expect the inflation figures to have the greatest impact on the day.

We will also expect the weekly crude oil inventory numbers to also provide direction.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.3183 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data and Brexit to Keep the Pound Front and Center

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Aussie Dollar were in action, with economic data from China also in focus this morning.

On the geopolitical risk front, U.S – China tensions remained in focus. TikTok’s sale deadline is up, with Huawei entering a new era under the watchful eye of the U.S administration.. From midnight on Monday, suppliers now require an approved license to supply Huawei. This not only impacts U.S suppliers but also Huawei’s Asian suppliers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. All non-U.S suppliers that use American tech will be required to apply for a license to continue supplying Huawei.

For the Kiwi Dollar

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 97.2 to 95.1 for the 3rd quarter.

According to the 3rd quarter survey,

  • Sentiment slipped back to levels last seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
  • An increasing number of households are reporting a deterioration in their financial position. The current financial situation sub-index fell from -13.2 to -16.9.
  • Low levels of confidence are weighing on spending appetites, seen across all age groups and income brackets. This was reflected in the “Good time to Buy” sub-index which fell from 1.5 to -2.5.
  • The expected financial situation sub-index fell from 14.7 to 11.2, to fall below the long-run average 11.4.
  • For the economic outlook, the 1-year economic outlook sub-index rose from -28.3 to -26.3.
  • By contrast, the 5-year economic outlook sub-index fell from 11.6 to 9.9, sitting well below the long-run average 28.8.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.67001 to $0.66942 upon release of the numbers. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was flat at $0.6700.

For the Aussie Dollar

In the 2nd quarter, the House Price Index fell by 1.8%, reversing a 1.6% rise from the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a 1% decline.

Key this morning, however, was the release of the RBA meeting minutes.

Salient points from the RBA Minutes included:

  • Growth in housing credit to owner-occupiers had eased in recent months, while housing credit to investors had continued to decline.
  • This was a reflection of demand from borrowers, given the weak and uncertain economic environment.
  • Members noted that, in addition to weak demand for household and business borrowing, the supply of credit had also tightened.
  • While an economic recovery was underway, it was likely to be uneven.
  • Uncertainty about the health situation and the future path of the economy was continuing to affect the spending plans of households and businesses.

On the monetary policy front,

  • Members reviewed the operation of the TFF and agreed to increase the size and to allow the drawing of funds until June 2021.
  • They also considered it likely that fiscal and monetary policy support would be required for some time given the outlook for the economy and the labor market.
  • Affirming its commitment to support jobs, incomes, and businesses, the Board agreed to maintain highly accommodative settings as long as required.
  • The Board will also continue to consider how further monetary policy measures could support the recovery.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72731 to $0.72982 upon release of the stats and the minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.26% to $0.7307.

Out of China

Key stats included fixed asset investment and retail sales figures for August. Fixed asset investment and unemployment figures were also in focus.

Fixed asset investments fell by 0.3%, year-on-year, following a 1.6% decline in July. Economists had forecast a 0.4% decline.

Industrial production rose by 5.6%, following a 4.8% rise in July. Economists had forecast a 5.1% increase, year-on-year.

Retail sales rose by 0.5% in August, year-on-year, following a 1.1% decline in July. Economists had forecast a 0.1% rise.

Finally, the unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.6%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.7304. to $0.7312 upon release of the stats.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.08% ¥105.65 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include September ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

2nd quarter wage growth figures for the Eurozone and finalized inflation figures for France and Italy are also in focus. We would expect these stats to have a muted impact on the EUR, however.

Expect the Economic Sentiment figures to be the key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.08% to $1.1875.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include August claimant counts and July’s unemployment rate.

Average earnings and 3-month rolling employment change figures are also due out but likely to have a muted impact on the Pound.

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit will remain a key driver.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.11% to $1.2832.

Across the Pond

It’s also a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include August industrial production figures and September NY Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers.

Other stats include August import and export price index numbers that will have a muted impact on the day.

With the markets a little edgy over the sustainability of the economic recovery, expect dire numbers to drive demand for the safe havens.

On the geopolitical risk front, there’s also chatter from Beijing and Washington to muddy the waters.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 93.011 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day ahead, with key stats limited to July manufacturing sales figures.

The stats are unlikely to have an impact on the Loonie, leaving the IEA’s monthly report to provide direction.

From elsewhere, expect stats from China and the U.S and geopolitics to also provide direction on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.12% to C$1.3160 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A Quiet Day ahead of Busy Week Leaves the Majors in the Hands of Geopolitics

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats through the early part of the Asian session to provide the majors with direction.

On the geopolitical risk front, U.S – China tensions and the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election were in focus.

With TikTok’s sale deadline looming, Huawei is also in the spotlight. The telco’s suppliers are due to stop shipments after mid-night today. This not only impacts U.S suppliers but also Huawei’s Asian suppliers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. All non-U.S suppliers that use American tech will be required to apply for a license to continue supplying Huawei.

For the Japanese Yen

Finalized industrial production figures for July are due out later today. Barring any marked downward revision to the prelim 8% jump, however, the stats should have a muted impact on the Yen.

This morning, Japan’s governing party is expected to vote in Yoshihide Suga, who is also expected to continue Abe’s policies. Any surprise outcomes would, therefore, be a test for the Yen…

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.07% ¥106.09 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.01% to $0.7283, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.41% to $0.6693.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. July industrial production figures are due out in the early part of the day.

With the markets having digested production figures from key member states, today’s data should have a muted impact on the EUR.

On the geopolitical risk front, however, expect Brexit and chatter from Beijing and Washington to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1850.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead of a busy week on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and market risk sentiment,

While Brexit chatter from the weekend was of little use for the bulls, talk of a resumption of COVID-19 vaccine trials was positive.

Over the weekend, the news wires reported that Oxford University is to resume clinical trials on its COVID-19 vaccine. Ultimately, however, with Brexit and economic doom and gloom, any upside would likely be limited.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.23% to $1.2825.

Across the Pond

It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the greenback with direction

With a lack of stats to consider, chatter on TikTok, U.S and China relations, and Brexit will be key drivers.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.16% to 93.183 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices. OPEC’s monthly report is due out today. We’ve seen crude oil prices suffer of late as a result of demand concerns.

Negative projections on demand would be negative for the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.14% to C$1.3160 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data and Brexit Keep the Pound in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action early on.

For the Kiwi Dollar

The Business PMI fell from 58.8 to 50.70 in August. In July, the PMI had risen from 56.3 to 58.8.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66501 to $0.66507 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.09% to $0.6657.

For the Japanese Yen

The BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index rose from -52.3 to 0.10 in the 3rd quarter.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.165 to ¥106.131 upon release of the numbers. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.01% ¥106.12 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.7271.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized August inflation figures for Germany and Spain are in focus later today.

With the markets having already responded to prelim numbers, however, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR.

We would expect the aftermath of the ECB press conference and market sentiment towards the Eurozone economy to be key drivers.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.17% to $1.1835.

For the Pound

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include GDP, industrial and manufacturing production figures for July. July trade figures are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the Pound.

While we expect the GDP numbers and manufacturing production, in particular, to influence, Brexit remains a key driver.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.2804.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar. August inflation figures are due out later today.

While we can expect some influence from the numbers ahead of the FOMC policy decision next week, it’s Friday.

U.S President Trump favors Friday messaging, leaving the Dollar exposed to any chatter from the Oval Office and beyond.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.05% to 93.289 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.05% to C$1.3186 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The ECB and U.S Jobless Claims Put the EUR and the Dollar in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action early on.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Electronic card retail sales slid by 7.9% in August, reversing an upwardly revised 1.20% increase in July.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Compared with August 2019, the total value of electronic card spending was down 5.3% (NZ$411m).
  • The non-retail (excl. services) category was down 16% (NZ313m). This category includes medical and other health services; travel and tour arrangement services; postal and courier delivery services; and other non-retail industries).
  • Also seeing a heavy decline was the services category, which fell by 16% (NZ$52m).
  • The decline in August was attributed to the reintroduction of COVID-19 containment measures.
  • Spending on food and beverage services fell by 13% (NZ$115m) compared with August 2019.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66824 to $0.66839 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.13% to $0.6675.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.01% ¥106.17 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.23% to $0.7266.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the EUR with direction on the day.

While there are no stats, however, the ECB is due to deliver its September monetary policy decision later today.

Following the FED’s change to the monetary policy framework and threat of prolonged Dollar weakness, the press conference will draw plenty of attention.

While the markets will be looking for forward guidance on policy and the ECB’s view on the economic recovery, any chatter on exchange rates will also influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.06% to $1.1810.

For the Pound

It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

That continues to leave the Pound firmly in the hands of Brexit chatter that has been negative for the Pound this week.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.12% to $1.2987.

Across the Pond

It’s a busier day ahead for the U.S Dollar, with August wholesale inflation figures and jobless claims figures due out later today.

While there will be some influence, any material easing of inflationary pressures is unlikely to shift the FED’s stance on policy near-term. It would support the FED’s lower for longer stance, however.

Of greater significance will be the weekly jobless claims figures that would need to avoid a return to 1m levels. A further decline would support riskier assets on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, geopolitics will remain a key driver as Trump continues to ruffle Beijing’s feathers.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 93.238 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices. Expect some sensitivity to the EIA weekly inventory numbers.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.15% to C$1.3166 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Bank of Canada and Brexit Put the Loonie and the Pound in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action, with economic data from China also in focus.

For the Aussie Dollar

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index jumped by 18% to 93.8 in September. In August, the index had fallen by 9.5% to 79.5.

According to the latest Westpac Report,

  • A marked slowdown of new cases in Victoria as a result of containment measures and no evidence of the 2nd wave in NSW or Queensland supported consumer sentiment.
  • Prior to the Victoria 2nd wave, the Index had stood at 93.7 in June.

Looking at the sub-indexes:

  • Finances vs a year ago jumped by 11.2% and the sub-index was 3.7% higher than this time last year.
  • The Finances, next 12-months sub-index also jumped by 11.2% to be 4.5% higher than in Sept-09.
  • Sentiment towards the economy was more impressive, though still down when compared to last year.
    • The Economy, next 12-months, sub-index surged by 41% but was still down by 18% from Sept-09.
    • The Economy, next 5-years sub-index fared better. A 19% jump led the Index up by 2% from Sept-19.
  • The time to buy a major household item sub-index rose by 16.3%, while still down by 12.1% from a year ago.
  • Also positive was a 14.8% slide in the Unemployment Expectations Index. The Index was still up by 4.2% compared with Sept-19, however.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72148 to $0.72195 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.04% to $0.72165.

Out of China

Inflation figures for August were in focus this morning.

In August, consumer prices rose by 0.4%, month-on-month, following a 0.6% rise in July. Economists had forecast a 0.4% increase.

The annual rate of inflation eased from 2.7% to 2.0% in August.

Wholesale deflationary pressures also eased, however. In August, the producer price index fell by 2.0%, year-on-year, following a 2.4% decline in July. Economists had forecast a 2.0% drop.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72144 to $0.72172 upon release of the figures

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.10% ¥105.92 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.01% to $0.6620.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the EUR with direction on the day.

A lack of stats will leave the ECB in focus, with the markets expecting some chatter to offset Dollar weakness.

We would expect market risk sentiment to also influence on the day, however.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1775.

For the Pound

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

That leaves the Pound firmly in the hands of Brexit chatter that has been negative for the Pound this week.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.15% to $1.2963.

Across the Pond

It’s a busier day ahead for the U.S Dollar, with July’s JOLTs job openings due out later today.

Following the recent labor market numbers, the July figures will need to continue to support a positive outlook on the labor market.

Cracks in the economic recovery have begun to form, driving the FED into a more defensive position. Weak numbers would likely weigh on riskier assets.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.08% to 93.522 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a big day ahead. While economic data is limited to August housing starts, the BoC monetary policy decision will draw plenty of attention.

First up since the FED’s new monetary policy framework rollout, the BoC could lay the groundwork for other Central Banks.

The last thing the BoC needs is a rampaging Loonie amidst the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was flat at C$1.3236 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Geopolitics and Economic Data Put the Pound and the EUR in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busier start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Pound, Japanese Yen, and Aussie Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.

Out of UK

The BRC Retail Sales Monitor increased by 4.7% in August, year-on-year. In July, sales had risen by 4.30%.

The Pound moved from $1.31652 to $1.31638 against the Dollar upon release of the figures.

For the Japanese Yen

Household spending slid by 6.5% in July, partially reversing a 13% jump in June. Economists had forecast a 2.3% decline. Year-on-year, spending tumbled by 7.6%, following a 1.2% decline in June. Economists had forecast a 3.7% decline.

According to the Statistic Bureau,

  • Spending on culture & recreation (-21.0%), clothing & footwear (-20.2%), and transportation & communication (-19.6%) weighed heavily.
  • There were also declines in spending on housing (-13.9%), food (-2.6%), and education (-1.4%).
  • Spending on furniture & household utensils jumped by 16.6%, however.
  • There were also increases in spending on fuel, light & water charges (+2.9%) and medical care (+4.2%).

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.304 to ¥106.292 upon release of the figures that preceded finalized 2nd quarter GDP numbers.

According to 2nd estimates, the Japanese economy contracted by 7.9%, quarter-on-quarter versus an estimate 8.1% contraction. This was worse than a prelim 7.8%, however.

According to finalized numbers:

  • Capital expenditure fell by 4.7%, revised down from a prelim 1.5% decline.
  • External demand fell by 3%, which was in line with the previous estimate.
  • Private consumption slumped by 7.9%, revised up from a previous estimate 8.2% tumble.

Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 28.1% versus an estimate of 28.6%. This was also worse than a prelim 27.8% contraction.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.289 to ¥106.255 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% ¥106.28 against the U.S Dollar

For the Aussie Dollar

The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from -14.0 to -8 in August. In July, the Index had fallen from 0 to -14, ending a run of 3 consecutive monthly increases.

By contrast, the Business Survey Index fell from 0 to -6.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72793 to $0.72832 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.7279.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.01% to $0.6691.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include German trade figures and French nonfarm payrolls ahead of the final 2nd quarter GDP numbers for the Eurozone.

With the ECB in action on Thursday, expect any downward revision to GDP numbers to have a material impact. The rest of the stats should have a relatively muted impact on the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.13% to $1.1802.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, following this morning’s retail sales figures. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will continue to leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and broader market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.14% to $1.3148.

Across the Pond

Its a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar, with the no material stats to provide the Greenback with direction following Monday’s holiday.

Market risk appetite will remain the key driver on the day.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.40% to 93.090 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s also a quiet day ahead, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction. That will leave the market focus on Wednesday’s Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision.

Away from the economic calendar, geopolitics, and Trump’s continued focus on China will likely remain a key driver.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.08% to C$1.3108 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data and Geopolitics Put the EUR and the Pound in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. Economic data from China was in focus in the early part of the day.

Away from the economic calendar, news of the U.S administration looking to target more Chinese companies tested risk appetite early on.

Out of China

August trade figures were in focus following the recent trade talks between the U.S and China.

In August, the U.S Dollar trade surplus narrowed from $62.33bn to $58.93bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $50.50bn.

  • Year-on-year, exports rose by 9.50%, following a 7.2% rise in July. Economists had forecast a 7.1% increase.
  • Imports fell by 2.10%, following a 1.4% decline from July. Economists had forecast a 0.10% rise.

While the jump in exports is positive, the unexpected fall in imports will be a concern, suggesting weaker demand near-term.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72846 to $0.72832 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.7284.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% ¥106.28 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.18% to $0.6709.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include German industrial production figures for July.

With the ECB in action later in the week, expect the numbers to influence on the day. Private sector PMIs for August suggested the need for further support. Weak numbers later today would support that view, particularly with the FED’s change to the policy framework.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1835.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. August’s house price figures are due out later today.

We don’t expect the numbers to influence the Pound, however. Brexit and broader market risk sentiment will be key drivers. From the weekend, negative chatter on Brexit contributed to a pullback in the Pound early this morning.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.29% to $1.3214.

Across the Pond

Its a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar, with the U.S markets closed.

Market risk appetite will be the key driver on the day.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.17% to 92.872 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

The Canadian markets are also closed on Monday, leaving the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil price on the day.

A pickup in tensions between the U.S and China, contributing to a slide in crude oil prices after Friday’s pullback, weighed on the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.15% to C$1.3081 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR, the Loonie, and the U.S Dollar in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action early on.

For the Aussie Dollar

Retail sales figures were in focus. In July, retail sales rose by 3.2%, following on from a 2.7% rise in June. Economists had forecast a 3.3% rise.

According to the ABS,

  • Household goods (4.0%), other retailing (4.4%), and food (1.2%) saw sizeable increases in sales.
  • Turnover in clothing, footwear, and personal accessory retailing (7.1%) and cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services (4.9%) also increased.
  • Online sales made up 9.8% of total retail turnover, up marginally from 9.7% in June. In July 2019, online retail turnover had contributed 6.3% to total retail.
  • Retail sales in July were 12.0% above July 2019. The sales of household goods surged by 29.4% above the same month in 2019.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.72751 to $0.72693 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.01% to $0.7274.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.07% ¥106.12 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.07% to $0.6707.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include German factory orders for July and construction PMI numbers for August.

Expect the factory order figures to have the greatest impact on the day.

On the monetary policy front, ECB member Lane, who contributed to the EUR pullback earlier in the week, is also scheduled to speak later in the day.

Ahead of next week’s policy decision, the threat of more jawboning may continue to leave the EUR on the defensive.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1848.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. August’s construction PMI is due out later this morning.

Following gloomy chatter from Bank of England monetary policy committee members on Wednesday, any downward revisions would weigh on the Pound.

Ahead of more meaningful stats next week, however, any Brexit chatter will likely have a greater impact on the day.

On the monetary policy front, MPC member Saunders is scheduled to speak. Expect any dovish chatter to also influence.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.3279.

Across the Pond

It’s another busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include August’s non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

Following some unimpressive ADP numbers from Wednesday, today’s figures will need to impress. The weekly jobless claims figures from Thursday will have provided some optimism ahead of today’s figures.

Away from the economic calendar, any chatter from Washington will also need monitoring. It’s Friday, which tends to be one of Trump’s more favorite tweeting days…

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 92.764 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s also a busy day ahead on the economic data front. Key stats include August employment numbers and the Ivey PMI.

We can expect both sets of numbers to influence ahead of the BoC monetary policy decision next week.

From elsewhere, any dire stats from the U.S would likely limit any upside for the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.05% to C$1.3121 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A Busy Economic Calendar Put the EUR, the Loonie, and the Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar was in action early on, with economic data from China also in focus.

For the Japanese Yen

August’s finalized services PMI came in at 45.0, which was in line with prelim, while down from July’s 45.4.

According to the August survey,

  • Activity fell back further in August, with restrictions on activity and a lack of customers weighing.
  • New orders decreased again in August, delivering a 7th consecutive monthly decline. The pace of decline was also more marked than in July, with new export orders seeing a material fall.
  • Firms continued to scale back employment in line with reduced workloads. Staffing levels were down for a 6th consecutive month.
  • Business sentiment remained subdued. Confidence was slightly lower than in July.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.241 to ¥106.212 upon release of the PMI. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.06% ¥106.24 against the U.S Dollar

For the Aussie Dollar

July trade figures were in focus. The trade surplus narrowed from A$8.202bn to A$4.607bn in July. Economists had forecast a narrowing to A$5.400bn.

According to the ABS,

  • Goods and services credits fell A$1,604m (4%) to A$34,496m.
    • Non-rural goods fell A$1,527m (6%).
    • Rural goods fell A$539m (15%).
    • Net exports of goods under merchanting fell A$18m (38%).
    • Non-monetary gold rose A$1,252m (53%).
    • Services fell A$772m (12%).
  • Goods and services debits rose A$1,939m (7%) to A$29,890m.
    • Capital goods rose A$999m (18%).
    • Consumption goods rose A$608m (7%).
    • Non-monetary gold rose A$300m (37%).
    • Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose A$165m (2%).
    • Services fell A$133m (3%).

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73146 to $0.73173 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.22% to $0.7322.

From China

The Caixin Services PMI slipped from 54.1 to 54.0 in August.

According to the August survey,

  • Service sector activity continued to recovery in August.
  • New order growth remained marked in spite of an easing from June’s recent record.
  • Higher sales were largely driven by firmer domestic demand, as new export work fell for the 2nd month in a row.
  • Increased activity and sales led firms to expand their workforces for the 1st time in 7-months.
  • Optimism dipped to a 3-month low in August in spite of firms expecting business activity to be higher in 12-months’ time.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73173 to $0.73255 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.04% to $0.6769.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include the August service sector and composite PMIs for Italy and Spain and Eurozone retail sales figures for July.

The finalized service sector and composite PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Barring a material deviation from prelims, expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to have the greatest impact on the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.14% to $1.1839.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. August’s finalized service and composite PMI numbers for August are due out.

Expect any revisions to influence the Pound in the early part of the day.

Away from the economic calendar, any Brexit and monetary policy chatter will also need monitoring.

BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak later today.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.07% to $1.3340.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead in a busy week for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include the weekly jobless claims and the market’s preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers.

Finalized Markit service PMI, trade and unit labor costs, and nonfarm productivity numbers are also due out. We would expect these stats to have a muted impact on market risk sentiment and the Dollar, however.

Away from the economic calendar, any chatter from Washington will also need monitoring.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 92.806 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic data front. July trade figures are due out later today.

After a quiet week on the economic data front, expect some Loonie sensitivity to the numbers.

From elsewhere, PMI numbers from China, the Eurozone, and the U.S will also influence on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.22% to C$1.3054 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GDP Numbers Sink the Aussie Dollar as Focus Shifts to the EUR and the Greenback

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action early on.

For the Aussie Dollar

2nd quarter GDP numbers provided direction early on. In the 2nd quarter, the Australian economy contracted by 7%, following a 0.3% contraction in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a 6% contraction. This was the largest quarterly fall on record.

According to the ABS,

  • Public demand slashed 7.9 percentage points from GDP, driven by a 12.15 tumble in household final consumption expenditure.
  • Spending on services slumped by 17.6%, driven by government restrictions and COVID-19 containment measures.
  • Net trade contributed 1.0 percentage point to GDP. Imports of goods fell by 2.4%. Falls in consumption and capital goods reflected weak domestic demand. Services imports slumped 50.5%, while the exports of services slid by 18.4% due to restrictions on travel and tourism.
  • Public demand contributed 0.6 percentage points.
  • The household saving to income ratio rose from 6.0% to 19.8%, fueled by the slide in consumption expenditure.
  • Hours worked fell a record 9.8%, with wages sliding by a record 2.5%.
  • Through the year, June 2019 to June 2020, the economy contracted by 6.3%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73591 to $0.73461 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.38% to $0.7344.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% ¥106.07 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.12% to $0.6767.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quieter day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include retail sales figures from Germany and unemployment numbers from Spain.

While the numbers from Spain will garner some interest, German retail sales figures for July will be the key driver.

A consumption-driven economy remains key. Any failure of existing fiscal and monetary policy support to loosen the purse strings would raise concerns over the economic outlook.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.10% to $1.1900.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter and market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.07% to $1.3375.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead in a busy week for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include August’s ADP non-farm employment change figures.

Following some disappointing weekly jobless claims numbers, the markets will be looking for a solid jump.

Away from the economic calendar, any chatter from Washington will also need monitoring.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.13% to 92.459 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic data front. 2nd quarter labor productivity figures are due out later today.

We don’t expect the numbers to have too much influence, however, with COVID-19 having had a material impact on 2nd quarter data.

Away from the economic calendar, geopolitics and COVID-19 will remain key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.08% to C$1.3075 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Greenback in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was another busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen, the Kiwi Dollar, and the Aussie Dollar were in action, with economic data from China also in focus.

For the Japanese Yen

Capital spending slid by 11.30% in the 2nd quarter, year-on-year. In the 1st quarter, capital spending had risen by 0.10%. Economists had forecast a 4.3% rise.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.962 to ¥105.98 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.17% ¥105.73 against the U.S Dollar

For the Kiwi Dollar

Building consents fell by 4.5% in July, following a 0.7% increase in June.

According to NZ Stats,

  • More than 10,000 new homes were consented in the last 3-months, the largest rolling 3-month total since the 1970s.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.67346 to $0.67342 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.34% to $0.6756.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a busy morning.

The AIG Manufacturing Index fell from 53.5 to 49.3 in August.

According to the August Survey,

  • Manufacturers related to the F&B, medical and pharmaceutical products, and some parts of freight transport reported solid conditions.
  • Other sectors reported lower demand due to the COVID-19 recession.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73738 to $0.73761 upon release of the figures that preceded the RBA’s monetary policy decision.

Building approvals jumped by 12% in July, reversing a 4.9% slide in June.

According to the ABS,

  • The rise was driven by private sector dwellings excluding houses, which surged by 22.7%.
  • Approvals for private sector houses increased by 8.5%, which was the strongest monthly increase since Jan-14.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73787 to $0.73864 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.33% to $0.7400. Later this morning the RBA monetary policy decision will be the main event.

Out of China

The CAIXIN Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.8 to 53.1 in August. Economists had forecast a fall to 52.6.

According to the August survey,

  • The improvement across the manufacturing sector was one of the most marked since January 2011.
  • Steeper increases in both output and new orders drove the PMI higher.
  • Total new work expanded at the fastest pace since the start of 2011.
  • While domestic orders continued to rise, new export orders rose for the 1st time since December 2019.
  • As a result of the pickup in new orders, the rate of output growth was the most marked since January 2011.
  • Employment saw a fractional decline, with the pace of decline the slowest in the year to date.
  • In spite of the better environment, the degree of optimism slipped to a 3-month low. Concerns over the pandemic and for how long the pandemic would impact operations and demand weighed.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.73864 to $0.73990 upon release of the figures.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include August manufacturing PMIs for Italy and Spain and unemployment figures from Germany.

Other stats on the day include finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone and Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures for August.

Expect Italy’s PMI and any revisions to German and Eurozone PMIs along with German unemployment figures to have the greatest impact.

The ECB remains reliant upon consumption to support economic recovery. German employment conditions will need to avoid deterioration to support the expectation of a V-shaped economic recovery.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.31% to $1.1973.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include the UK’s finalized manufacturing PMI for August.

Expect any revisions to influence. Away from the economic calendar, Brexit chatter will continue to be an influence.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.18% to $1.3394.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead in a busy week for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI for August.

The finalized Markit manufacturing PMI is also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, the markets will need to continue monitoring chatter from Washington.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.23% to 91.929 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic data front. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of the PMI numbers. We can expect the PMIs to influence market sentiment towards the global economic outlook and demand for crude.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.20% to C$1.3021 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.