A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves Stats from Germany and the EUR in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly quiet start to the week on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide the majors with direction through the Asian session.

The lack of stats will leave the majors in the hands of chatter from the National People’s Congress that got underway last Friday.

From the weekend, trade data from China set the tone, however.

In February, China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus widened from $78.17bn to $103.25bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $60.00bn.

Year-on-year, exports jumped by 60.6%, following an 18.1% increase in January. Economists had forecast a 38.9% surge.

Imports rose by 22.2%, following a 6.5% increase in January. Economists had forecast a 15.0% jump.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.26% to  $0.7706, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.21% to $0.7182. The Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥108.36 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. German industrial production figures for January are due out later this morning.

Forecasts are EUR positive, though only marginally. A fall in factory orders in December suggests some uncertainty ahead of the release.

While we can expect sensitivity to the numbers, however, recent manufacturing PMIs should limit the impact of any weak numbers.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.08% to $1.1925.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.3849.

Across the Pond

It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. A lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of FOMC member chatter and news from Capitol Hill.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.05% to 91.934.

For the Loonie

There are no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of China trade data from Sunday and chatter from the National People’s Congress.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.17% to C$1.2637 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S Nonfarm Payrolls Puts the Dollar Back in Focus as China’s National People’s Congress Begins

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide the majors with direction through the early part of the Asian session.

The lack of stats will leave the majors in the hands of China Premier’s Li Keqiang speech later this morning, as the National People’s Congress gets under way.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.18% to  $0.7712, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.14% to $0.7180. The Japanese Yen was flat at ¥107.98 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. German factory orders for January are due out later this morning.

Forecasts are EUR positive. With manufacturing sector activity picking up at the turn of the year, an unexpected slide would pressure the EUR further.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1964.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.06% to $1.3886.

Across the Pond

It’s another busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Following the weekly jobless claims figures on Friday, labor market figures for February will be in focus later today.

February’s unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls will be the key drivers late in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will also influence.

On Thursday, the Dollar Spot Index rallied by 0.75% to end the day at 91.631. FED Chair Powell’s speech from late Thursday delivered the upside on the day.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively busy day ahead. January trade data and February’s Ivey PMI figures are due out later today.

With little else for the markets to consider in the past week, expect some Loonie sensitivity ahead of next week’s BoC monetary policy decision.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.11% to C$1.2681 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Eurozone Retail Sales and U.S Jobless Claims Keep the EUR and Dollar in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a quieter start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action in the early part of the Asian session.

For the Aussie Dollar

Retail sales and trade data for January were in focus this morning.

In January, retail sales increased by 0.5%, month-on-month, partially reversing a 4.1% slide from December.  This was a downward revision from a prelim 0.6% rise.

According to the ABS,

  • Food retailing increased by 1.6%, with household goods retailing up by 0.1% in January.
  • Other retailing increased by 1.4%
  • Clothing, footwear, and personal accessory retailing fell by 3.6%, however, weighed by a 6.1% slide in clothing retailing.
  • Department store sales fell by 0.4%, with cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services down by 0.8%.

In January, Australia’s trade surplus widened from A$6.785bn to A$10.142bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to A$6.500bn.

According to the ABS,

  • Goods and services credits increased by A$2,316m (6%) to A$39,849m.
    • General merchandise exports increased by A$2,613m (9%), supported by a sharp increase in the export of non-rural goods.
    • Rural goods exports fell by 8m.
    • Net exports under merchanting fell by A$6m, with non-monetary gold exports falling by A$142m.
  • Debits fell by A$694m (2%) to A$29,707m.
    • General merchandise imports fell by A$577m. Heavy declines in the imports of consumption goods (AS$330m) and intermediate and other merchandise goods (A$229m) weighed.
    • Non-monetary gold imports fell by A$135m.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77658 to $0.77767 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.04% to $0.7778.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.07% to $0.7251, while the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥107.06 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s another busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include Eurozone retail sales and unemployment figures for January.

German construction PMI figures for February are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.11% to $1.2050.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. February’s construction PMI is due out later this morning.

We don’t expect too much influence on the Pound, however, which will remain in the hands of market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.16% to $1.3932.

Across the Pond

It’s busier day ahead on the economic calendar. Factory orders and the weekly jobless claims figures will likely have the greatest influence.

Unit labor costs and nonfarm productivity numbers for the 4th quarter are also due out but should have a muted impact on the Dollar.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.11% to 91.049.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead. Labor productivity numbers for the 4th quarter are due out later today.

We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.

Market risk sentiment and impact on crude oil prices will remain the key driver ahead of the BoC monetary policy decision next week.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.04% to C$1.2660 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Service Sector PMIs Put the EUR and USD in Focus, with ADP Nonfarms to also Influence

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar, Kiwi Dollar, and the Japanese Yen were in action this morning. Economic data from China was also in focus in the early part of the day.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Building consents rose by 2.1% in January, following a 5.1% jump in December.

According to NZ Stats,

  • The annual number of new homes consented in the year ended January 2021 was 39,881, up 5.8% year-on-year.
  • January’s number fell just 144 short of a Feb-1974 all-time high 40,025 for any 12-month period.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.72933 to $0.72821 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.7392.

For the Aussie Dollar

The Australian economy was in focus.

In the 4th quarter, the economy expanded by 3.1%, following 3.3% growth in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast growth of 2.5%.

Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 1.1%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 1.8% contraction. In the 3rd quarter, the economy had contracted by 3.7%.

According to the ABS,

  • Household spending increased by 4.3% as a result of easing COVID-19 restrictions.
  • Private investment rose by 3.9%, contributing 0.7 percentage points to growth.
  • Compensation to employees rose 1.5% as a result of a rise in employment and hours worked.
  • Agricultural production jumped, supported by favorable weather conditions

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.78251 to $0.78337 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.15% to $0.7832.

For the Japanese Yen

The Services PMI rose from 46.1 to 46.3 in February, which was up from a prelim 45.8.

According to the February Market Survey,

  • Employment expanded for the first time since Feb-2020. Supported by improved optimism about the year ahead. Optimism hit a 37-month high.
  • New business inflows fell for a 13th consecutive month, with the rate of contraction the sharpest since last May.
  • Foreign demand for services declined at a softer pace than that for total new business.
  • Firms registered a rise in average cost burdens for a 3rd consecutive month, though the increase was marginal.
  • In spite of rising costs, firms reported lower output charges for the 12th month in a row. The rate of decline was also the most marked since Aug-2020.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.731 to ¥106.769 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.12% to ¥106.82 against the U.S Dollar.

From China

Service sector activity was also in the spotlight.

In February, the Caxin Services PMI fell from 52.0 to 51.5.

According to the February Survey,

  • Business activity growth slowed to a 10-month low in February, coinciding with a weaker rise in new business.
  • A fall in new export work weighed on overall new business mid-way through the quarter.
  • Firms reported that the recent resurgence of COVID-19 cases globally weighed on sales growth.
  • New export orders fell for the first time since last October.
  • Firms reduced headcounts for the first time since last July.
  • In spite of falling headcounts, there was little pressure on operating capacities in February.
  • Companies registered a further steep increase in operating costs. Greater purchasing and staffing costs were cited as key inflation drivers.
  • While operating costs were on the rise, firms only partially passed on higher input costs to clients.
  • Optimism was amongst the strongest seen over the past 8-years, supported by hopes of a near-term end to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.78314 to $0.78304 upon release of the figures.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Service sector PMI numbers for Italy and Spain are in focus later this morning.

Finalized service and composite PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are also due out.

Barring any marked revisions from prelims, expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to be the key drivers.

Other stats include 4th quarter GDP numbers from Italy. Expect any revisions to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.2086.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized service and composite PMI numbers for February are due out.

Expect Pound sensitivity to the services PMI in particular.

Away from the economic calendar, however, the UK Annual Budget release will be the main event of the day.

The markets will be looking unwavering support from the government. Anything less and the Pound could come under pressure.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.01% to $1.3957.

Across the Pond

It’s busy day ahead on the economic calendar. The market’s preferred ISM non-manufacturing PMI figures are due out along with ADP nonfarm employment change numbers.

Finalized Market service and composite PMIs are also due out, though we would expect the stats to have a muted impact on the Dollar.

From elsewhere, chatter from the Senate on Biden’s COVID-19 relief package will also need tracking.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.01% to 90.776.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of the weekly crude oil inventory numbers and market risk appetite.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.2633 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data from the Eurozone and the Canada Put the EUR and Loonie in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was another busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action this morning, with RBA scheduled to deliver its policy decision later this morning.

For the Japanese Yen

In January, the Job to applications ratio increased from 1.06 to 1.10, coming in ahead of a forecasted 1.06. Unemployment figures also beast estimates, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 2.9%. Economists had forecast a pickup to 3.0%.

Capital Spending fell by 4.8%, year-on-year, in the 4th quarter. In the 3rd quarter, capital spending had fallen by 10.6%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.822 to ¥106.820 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% to ¥106.87 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

Building approval and current account figures were in focus this morning.

In January, building approvals tumbled by 19.4%, reversing a 12.0% jump in December. Economists had forecast 3% fall.

According to the ABS,

  • Private sector houses fell 12.2%, while private sector dwellings excluding houses tumbled 39.5%.

In the 4th quarter, the current account surplus widened from A$10.0bn to A$14.5bn. Economists had forecasted a widening to A$13.1bn.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77712 to $0.77702 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.10% to $0.7764.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.01% to $0.7264.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. The German economy is back in the spotlight, with Eurozone inflation figures also in focus.

From Germany, retail sales figures for January and unemployment numbers for February will provide direction.

A recent pickup in consumer confidence will need to translate into a rise in spending and an improvement in employment figures.

Expect weak numbers to test support for the EUR.

Later in the day, prelim February inflation figures for the Eurozone are also due out. Market sensitivity has picked up, so expect any further pickup in inflationary pressures to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.09% to $1.2038.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats from the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day. In spite of last week’s pullback, downside risks for the Pound will likely remain limited near-term.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.3923.

Across the Pond

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the markets with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of chatter from Capitol hill and FOMC member commentary on the day.

Biden’s COVID-19 relief package has made its way to the Senate, so expect updates from talks ahead of a vote.

With the markets looking to get a sense on where the FED sits vis-à-vis inflation, FOMC member speeches will also begin to garner greater interest.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 91.075.

For the Loonie

It’s a busy day ahead. 4th quarter and December GDP numbers are due out later today.

With little else for the markets to consider, expect the numbers to influence.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.02% to C$1.2649 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Manufacturing Sector PMIs Put the EUR and the Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action this morning, with economic data from China also in focus.

For the Japanese Yen

The manufacturing sector was in focus early in the day.

In February, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 to 51.4, which was an upward revision from a prelim 50.6.

According to the February survey,

  • This was the strongest improvement in the health of the sector since Dec-2018.
  • Production volumes increased for the 1st time since Dec-2018.
  • Output saw a moderate expansion, supporting the uptick in the PMI.
  • Manufacturers reported that a gradual recovery in demand led to increased orders for manufactured goods.
  • New orders expanded for the second month in a row, with the pace of growth the quickest since Oct-2018.
  • Also, new export orders increased for the first time in 4-months in February, supported by strong demand from China in particular.
  • Employment levels continued to fall, however, though the pace of decline was softer than in recent months.
  • Cost burdens rose for a 9th consecutive month, with the rate of input cost inflation accelerating at the fastest pace in 2-years.
  • Optimism across the sector strengthened to the highest since Jul-2017, supported by hopes of an end to the pandemic.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.491 to ¥106.500 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.06% to ¥106.63 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

In February, the AIG Manufacturing Index rose from 55.3 to 58.8, the highest level since Mar-2018.

According to the February survey,

  • Five of the six manufacturing sectors reported positive trading conditions in February.
  • The building materials sector recorded its first month of expansion since Aug-2019, supported by government fiscal stimulus.
  • Only the metal products sector continued to report mildly negative conditions in February.

According to the ABS, company gross operating profits slid by 6.6%, quarter-on-quarter, reversing a 3.2% increase in Q3. Economists had forecast a 4.0% decline.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77501 to $0.77527 upon release of the figures that preceded China’s Manufacturing PMI numbers. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.57% to $0.7750.

From China

In February, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.5 to 50.9. Economists had forecast for the PMI to hold steady at 51.5.

According to the February survey,

  • Companies reported slower rises in both output and new work for a 3rd consecutive month.
  • Firms noted that the COVID-19 pandemic had weighed on demand and impacted business operations.
  • New export work fell for a second consecutive month.
  • Total new work expanded at the weakest pace for 9-months, with new export orders falling for a 2nd consecutive month.
  • Rising prices for raw materials and higher transport costs led to a further marked increase in input costs.
  • Factory gate prices rose solidly, as firms looked to partially pass on higher cost burdens to customers.
  • In spite of this, companies were strongly optimistic that output will rise over the next year on hopes of a global economic rebound.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77570 to $0.77493 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.58% to $0.7275.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Manufacturing PMI figures for Italy and Spain are due out later this morning, along with finalized numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Barring marked revisions to French and German PMI numbers, Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs will likely have the greatest impact.

Prelim February inflation figures from Italy and Germany will also draw attention as reinflationary fears linger.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.2083.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized manufacturing PMI figures for February are due out later today.

Barring a material shift from prelim figures, however, the PMI should have a relatively muted impact on the Pound.

With economic data on the lighter side, the Pound will be in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

We continue to see the downside limited, however, with plans to ease lockdown measures positive.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.37% to $1.3984.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. February’s ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers are due out later today along with finalized Market manufacturing PMI figures.

Expect the ISM numbers to draw the greatest interest.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will also influence. From the weekend, the House of Representatives passed Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package through to leave it in the hands of the Senate.

The key date for Biden and for the Democrats is 14th March, when existing unemployment benefits expire.

On the geopolitical risk front, there is also Iran in focus.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.10% to 90.7900.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave manufacturing PMI figures from China and the U.S and market risk sentiment to provide direction.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.27% to C$1.2703 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Dollar in Spotlight, with the Middle East also in Focus

Earlier in the Day

It’s was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, and the Japanese Yen were in action this morning.

On the geopolitical risk front, news from Bloomberg of the U.S bombing Iran-backed groups in Syria will also test market risk appetite. How Iran responds, if at all, will be key.

For the Kiwi Dollar

The trade surplus narrowed from NZ$2,980m to NZ$2,750m in January, year-on-year. The monthly trade balance fell from a NZ$69m surplus to a NZ$626m deficit in January.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Goods exports fell NZ$486m (10%) to NZ$4.2bn, while goods imports fell by a lesser NZ$256m (5%) to NZ$4.8m.

Exports

  • There was a notable NZ$172m fall in the exports of milk powder, butter, and cheese (-11%).
  • Exports of meat and edible offal slid by NZ$141m (-18%), with preparations of milk, cereal, flour, and start exports down NZ$64m (41%).

Imports

  • Crude oil exports fell by NZ$288m (-61%), with mechanical machinery and equipment exports down NZ$122m (-15%).
  • Fuel exports fell by NZ$85m (-36%).

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.73659 to $0.73691 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.34% to $0.7348.

For the Japanese Yen

Inflation, industrial production, and retail sales figures were in focus this morning.

In February, deflationary pressures lingered, with Tokyo core consumer prices falling by 0.3%, year-on-year. In January, core consumer prices had fallen by 0.4%.

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication,

  • Fuel, light, and water charges slumped by 8.0%.
  • Prices for education (-1.9%), transportation & communication (-0.6%), and medical care (-0.1%) also weighed.
  • Furniture and household utensil prices increased by 2.9%, however, with prices for clothes & footwear rising by 0.5%.
  • There were also increases in prices for housing (+0.7%) and culture & recreation (+0.1%).

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.345 to ¥106.373 upon release of the figures that preceded industrial production and retail sales figures.

Industrial production jumped by 4.2% in January, reversing a 1.0% fall from December, according to prelim figures. Economists had forecast a 4.0% rise.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,

Industries that mainly contributed to the increase were:

  • General-purpose and business orientated machinery.
  • Electronic parts and devices.
  • Electrical machinery, and information, and communication.

Industries that mainly contributed to the decrease were:

  • Transport equipment (excl. motor vehicles).
  • Petroleum and coal products.

Retail sales slid by 2.4% in January, following a 0.2% decline in December according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Economists had forecast a 2.6% decline.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.378 to ¥106.395 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% to ¥106.28 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

Financial aggregate figures from the RBA were in focus this morning.

Total credit increased by 0.2% in January, following a 0.3% rise in December.

According to the RBA,

  • Housing credit increased by 0.4% in the month of January, following a 0.4% rise in December.
  • Business credit slipped by 0.1%, following a 0.3% rise in December.
  • Personal credit slumped by 0.9%, following on from a 0.5% decline in December.
  • Year-on-year, total credit was up by 1.7%. In January 2020, total credit risen by 2.5%.
  • Personal credit was a drag, tumbling by 12.4% year-on-year. In January 2020, personal credit had fallen by 5.0%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.78362 to $0.78493 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.33% to $0.7847.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. French consumer spending figures are due out along with 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter.

Expect both sets of numbers to draw interest.

Prelim February inflation figures from Spain are also due out, which could draw more attention than usual.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.17% to $1.2154.

For the Pound

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.19% to $1.3989.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. January inflation and personal spending figures are due out later today.

Other stats include business inventories, Chicago PMI, trade data, and finalized consumer sentiment figures. These are unlikely to have a material impact on the Dollar, however.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill and from FOMC members will also need monitoring.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.25% to 90.358.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead. RMPI numbers for January are due out later today.

With little else to focus on, we can expect some Loonie sensitivity to the numbers.

Expect market risk sentiment and influence on crude oil prices, however, to remain the key driver.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.13% to C$1.2620 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR in Focus Ahead of Day 2 of FED Chair Powell Testimony

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in focus in the early hours, with the RBNZ also in action.

For the Aussie Dollar

Wage growth and construction figures were in focus this morning.

In the 4th quarter, wages grew by 0.6%, quarter-on-quarter, following a 0.1% rise in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a 0.3% increase.

Construction work done fell by 0.9% in the 4th quarter, however, following a 2.6% slide in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a 1% increase.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.79221 to $0.79218 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.40% to $0.7943.

For the Kiwi Dollar

This morning, the RBNZ left monetary policy unchanged, which was in line with market expectations.

With policy left unchanged, the RBNZ Rate Statement was the key driver.

Salient points from the Rate Statement included:

  • The Committee agreed to leave the OCR at 0.25%, and the LSAP Programme of up to NZ$100bn and the Funding for Lending Programme (FLP) operation unchanged.
  • While global economic activity has increased, the lift in activity has been uneven between and within countries.
  • The initiation of COVID-19 vaccine programmes is positive for health and economic activity.
  • There remains a significant period before widespread immunity is achieved, however.
  • With international border restrictions in place, economic uncertainty will remain heightened.
  • In NZ, households and businesses have benefitted from the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.
  • Some temporary factors were currently supporting consumer price inflation and employment. These include higher oil prices, supply disruptions, spending catchup, and fiscal stimulus.
  • The economic outlook remains highly uncertain, due to future health-related social restrictions.
  • Ongoing uncertainty is expected to constrain business investment and household spending growth.
  • The Committee agreed that inflation and employment would likely remain below its remit targets over the medium term in the absence of prolonged monetary stimulus.
  • Members were also prepared to provide additional monetary stimulus if necessary.
  • It was also noted that the operational work to enable the OCR to be taken negative, if required, was now complete.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.73472 to $0.73583 upon release of the RBNZ Statement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.55% to $0.73753. Next up is the RBNZ press conference…

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.15% to ¥105.41 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. 2nd estimate GDP numbers for German are due out later this morning. Following revisions to the Eurozone numbers, expect any revision to 4th quarter to numbers to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.2158.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

We would expect any downside to be limited, however, with plans to ease COVID-19 restrictions positive for the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.53% to $1.4188.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. New home sales figures for January are due out later today.

We don’t expect the numbers to provide the Dollar or the broader markets with direction, however.

Chatter from Capitol Hill will likely be the key driver on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.13% to 90.050.

For the Loonie

It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil inventory numbers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.17% to C$1.2565 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the Pound and the Dollar in Focus ahead of Fed Chair Powell Testimony

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was another relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action in the early hours, with the Japan markets closed for the day.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Retail sales figures were in focus this morning.

In the 4th quarter, retail sales fell by 2.7%, partially reversing a 28% jump in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a 0.5% decline.

Compared with the 4th quarter of 2019, the total value of retail sales rose by 4.9%, with total volume rising by 4.8%.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Eleven of the 15 industries had higher sales values compared with the final quarter of 2019.
  • Motor vehicle and parts retailing rose by 12%, with hardware, building, and garden supplies up 16%.
  • Electrical and electronic goods retail increased by 19%, with supermarket and grocery stores up 3.3%.
  • Fuel retailing had the largest fall, declining by 10% (NZ$241m), followed by accommodation down 18% (NZ$215m).

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.73236 to $0.73278 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.03% to $0.7328.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.15% to ¥104.92 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar up by 0.01% to $0.7917.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized January inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out later today.

Barring any deviation from prelim, however, the numbers should have a relatively muted impact on the EUR.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.12% to $1.2171.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include December’s unemployment rate and January claimant count figures.

With lockdown measures still in effect, dire numbers will test support for the Pound. Progress on the vaccination front, however, and plans to ease restrictions should cushion the blow from any disappointing numbers.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.09% to $1.4075.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Consumer confidence figures for February are due out later today.

We can expect influence from the numbers, particularly with little else for the markets to consider on the day.

House price figures for December are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the Greenback.

High demand, driven by low mortgage rates, and low inventory numbers have pushed house prices up in spite of current labor market conditions.

On the monetary policy front, FED Chair Powell testimony late in the day will also be a key driver for the Dollar and the broader markets.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 89.987.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.07% to C$1.2606 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts Germany and the EUR Back in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide the majors with direction.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.09% to ¥105.54 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was up by 0.36% to $0.7897, with the  Kiwi Dollar up by 0.42% to $0.7330.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. February’s IFO Business Climate Index for Germany and sub-indicators are due out later today.

Following last week’s impressive manufacturing PMI number, the markets will be expecting a sharp increase in business sentiment.

Disappointing numbers will peg back the EUR on release.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.08% to $1.2129.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the market risk sentiment on the day.

With the Pound reaching $1.40 levels, market sentiment towards the UK economy will now be hinged on COVID-19 containment measures.

Progress on the vaccination front continues to support a nearer term end to containment measures than its neighbors, which remains Pound positive.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.13% to $1.4034.

Across the Pond

It’s also another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the markets with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Dollar and the U.S markets in the hands of chatter from Capitol Hill.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.13% to 90.248.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

With little for the markets to consider in the 2nd half of the day, expect updates on U.S stimulus and market risk sentiment to provide direction.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.17% to C$1.2593 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR, the Loonie, the Pound, and the Greenback in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Aussie Dollar were in action early on.

For the Kiwi Dollar

The producer input price index ended the 4th quarter flat, following a 0.6% increase in the 3rd quarter of last year.

According to NZ Stats,

Highlighted input industries:

  • Dairy product manufacturing increased by 2.2%, while meat and meat production manufacturing fell by 0.8%.
  • Petroleum and coal product manufacturing slid by 5.5% in the quarter.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.72242 to $0.72187 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the  Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.06% to $0.7217.

For the Japanese Yen

Inflation and private sector PMI figures were in focus this morning.

In January, deflationary pressures softened, with core consumer prices falling by 0.6% year-on-year. Core consumer prices had fallen by 1.0%, year-on-year, in December. Economists had forecast a 0.7% decline.

Consumer prices also fell by 0.6%, year-on-year, following a 1.2% decline in December.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.653 to ¥105.673 upon release of the figures that preceded prelim private sector PMIs for February.

In February, the manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 to 50.6, while the services PMI fell from 46.1 to 45.8.

According to the prelim Markit survey,

  • Service sector conditions deteriorated further, with new orders, weighed by weak domestic demand, seeing a strong decline.
  • By contrast, the manufacturing sector saw a pickup in new orders, supported by a rise in new export orders. New export orders had fallen in January.
  • Across the private sector, employment rose for the first time in 12-months. While there was a weaker decline in the manufacturing sector, service sector firms increased payrolls.
  • Businesses were optimistic that business conditions would improve in the next 12-months. Hopes that an end to the COVID-19 pandemic would induce a recovery in domestic and foreign demand drove optimism.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.711 to ¥105.710 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.02% to ¥105.71 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

Prelim retail sales figures for January were in focus.

According to the ABS, retail sales increased by 0.6% in January. In December, retail sales had fallen by 4.1%.

  • Food retailing sales increased by 1.8%, reversing a 1.7% decline from December.
  • There were declines in clothing, footwear, and personal accessory retailing, household goods retailing, and department stores, however.
  • A 3-day lockdown in Brisbane weighed on the three retail sectors in January.
  • Compared with January 2020, retail sales were up by 10.7%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77695 to $0.77679 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.04% to $0.7771.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim private sector PMI figures for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out later today.

Expect plenty of influence from the February numbers. While there’s concern over the services sector, the manufacturing sector will need to continue to perform.

Any weaker manufacturing numbers and the EUR will likely come under pressure. New orders and sentiment towards pricing will likely be key areas of focus.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.2095.

For the Pound

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. January retail sales figures are due out along with prelim private sector PMI numbers for February.

The retail sales and services PMI figures will likely be the key drivers.

CBI industrial trend orders for February are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.3970.

Across the Pond

It’s another busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include February’s prelim private sector PMI numbers and housing sector data.

The services PMI will be the main area of interest on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 90.532.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively busy day on the economic data front. Retail sales figures for December are due out later today.

With economic data on the lighter side in the week, we can expect plenty of Loonie sensitivity to the numbers.

From elsewhere, private sector PMI numbers will also influence crude oil prices and ultimately the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.01% to C$1.2680 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

ECB Minutes Give the EUR a Boost as Members Stand by 2021 Projections

It’s been a quiet start to the European session, with no stats for the markets to consider early on.

This afternoon, however, the ECB minutes drew attention ahead of consumer confidence figures due out later in the day.

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The minutes from the late January meeting painted a relatively optimistic outlook on what lies ahead.

Salient points from the minutes included:

  • Activity in the 4th quarter was likely to have seen a less pronounced decline than had been envisaged in Q4 of 2020.
  • The recent intensification of the pandemic, however, was likely to weigh more heavily on activity in the Q1 of 2020 than had been foreseen earlier.
  • Net-net, developments remained broadly in line with the December baseline projection overall.
  • Members also noted that an extension of the containment measures beyond Q4 of 2020 had been incorporated into the December projections.
  • On the downside, however, members argued that the forecasted fast rebound in growth might be too optimistic.
  • Vaccination roll-outs were proving to be slow. There were also concerns over the spread of new, more virulent, mutations of the virus.
  • Members noted, however, that the economic costs of containment measures were lower than in Spring 2020.
  • While containment measures were stricter, more fiscal support and better adjustments by firms to cope with restrictions softened the blow.
  • Looking ahead, favorable financial conditions, an expansionary fiscal stance, and a recovery in demand should support the economic recovery.
  • Members assessed that risks remained tilted to the downside but had become less pronounced.

Market Impact

The EUR got a boost in response to the minutes, rising from a pre-release $1.20624 to a post-release high and current day high $1.20849.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.41% to $1.20837.

EURUSD 180221 Minute Chart

For the European majors, the DAX30 held onto gains following the release. The CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 continued to struggle.

At the time of writing, the DAX30 was up by 0.28%. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 were down by 0.14% and by 0.12% respectively, however.

Economic Data Puts the EUR and Dollar in the Spotlight, with ECB Minutes also in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was another relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action as the China markets reopened following the Chinese New Year close.

For the Aussie Dollar

In January, employment increased by 29.1k in Australia, falling short of a forecasted 40.0k rise, according to the ABS. Employment had risen by 50.0k in December.

Full employment rose by 59.0k, following a 35.7k increase in December. The unemployment rate slipped from 6.6% to 6.4%. Economists had forecast an unemployment rate of 6.5%.

The participation rate fell from 66.2% to 66.1%, with the underemployed falling from 8.5% to 8.1%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77638 to $0.77676 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.06% to $0.7756.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.08% to ¥105.79 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.04% to $0.7188.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Eurozone consumer confidence figures are due out late in the European session.

Ahead of the numbers, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes are also due out and will influence. Will the minutes highlight concerns over the economic outlook or stand by its growth forecasts for the year?

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.2041.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to knock the Pound off its road to recovery.

Market sentiment towards the economic outlook remains positive for the Pound near-term. Any risk aversion, however, and expect the Pound to come under pressure.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.3856.

Across the Pond

It’s another busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include Philly FED Manufacturing PMI figures and the weekly jobless claims numbers.

While both sets of numbers will influence, the weekly jobless claims figures will likely have the greatest impact.

Housing sector data for January also due out should have a muted impact on the Dollar and market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.06% to 90.897.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day on the economic data front. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day. Continued market optimism towards the global economic recovery and anticipated pickup in crude oil consumption remains Loonie positive near-term.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.03% to C$1.2706 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the Pound and the Dollar in Focus ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. While the China markets were closed, the Japanese Yen was in action in the early hours.

For the Japanese Yen

In January, Japan’s trade balance fell from a ¥749.6bn surplus to a ¥323.9bn deficit. Economists had forecast a deficit of ¥600.0bn.

According to figures released by the  Ministry of Finance,

  • Compared with January 2020, exports rose by 6.4% to ¥5.780bn, while imports fell by 9.5% to ¥6.104bn.
  • Exports to China jumped by 37.5%, supporting a 19.4% increase in exports to Asia.
  • To the U.S, exports fell by 4.8%, however, with exports to Europe falling by 10.3%.
  • Imports from the U.S fell by 14%, with imports from Asia declining by 4.5%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.024 to ¥106.06 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.02% to ¥105.36 against the U.S Dollar.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.15% to $0.7746, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.26% to $0.7196.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

With little else to consider, expect car registration figures for January will draw some attention.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.12% to $1.2091.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. January inflation figures are due out later today.

With the UK government making progress on the vaccination front, optimism towards the UK economic recovery has improved. A pickup in inflationary pressures would provide further upside for the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.22% to $1.3873.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include retail sales, industrial production, and wholesale inflation figures.

Expect January’s retail sales figures to have the greatest influence on the Dollar and market risk sentiment.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes late in the U.S session will also draw attention. The minutes will need to be aligned with FED Chair Powell’s assurances of lower for longer…

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.24% to 90.728. A jump in U.S Treasury yields supported by expectations of a pickup in inflationary pressures supported demand for the Dollar.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic data front. January inflation figures are due out late in the day.

While we will expect the numbers to influence, crude oil inventory numbers will also provide direction in the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.15% to C$1.2709 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Greenback in Focus Amidst Relentless Market Optimism

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning, with no material stats for the markets to consider.

Later this morning, however, the RBA meeting minutes and tertiary industry activity numbers from Japan will be in focus.

Expect the RBA meeting minutes to draw the greatest interest following the surprise move at the last meet.

The Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.02% to ¥105.36 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar up by 0.04% to $0.7784. The Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.07% to $0.7232.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone and ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

Expect both sets of figures to influence later this morning, particularly if there are any revisions to GDP numbers.

At the time of writing, the EUR was flat at $1.2129.

For the Pound

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will continue to leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment and COVID-19 news on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.03% to $1.3907.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, following Monday’s holiday. NY Empire State Manufacturing numbers are due out later today.

With little else to consider, expect the numbers to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will also need continued monitoring.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic data front following Monday’s holiday.

Housing start figures for January and foreign security purchases for December are due out.

Barring particularly dire numbers, however, we don’t expect too much influence from the numbers.

Chatter from Capitol Hill and crude oil prices will remain the key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was flat at C$1.2639 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR in Focus, While the Pound Makes an Early Move

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the week on the economic calendar this morning, with the China and Hong Kong markets closed. Going into the Asian open, the Japanese Yen was in action, however.

Later this morning, finalized industrial production figures from Japan are also due out. We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.

For the Japanese Yen

4th quarter GDP numbers were in focus this morning.

Quarter-on-quarter, the Japanese economy expanded by 3.0%, following 5.3% growth in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast the economy to expand by 2.3%.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 12.7% following the 3rd quarter’s 22.9% rebound. Economists had forecast growth of 9.5%.

  • GDP capital expenditures rebounded in the 4th quarter, rising by 4.5%. Economists had forecast a 2.6% increase following a 2.4% slide in the 3rd
  • External demand saw a more modest 1.0% rise, following a 2.7% increase in the 3rd
  • Private consumption also saw a more modest 2.2% increase. In the 3rd quarter, private consumption had risen by 5.1%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.045 to ¥105.039 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% to ¥105.04 against the U.S Dollar

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.7763, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.01% to $0.7222. News of Auckland going into lockdown pegged the Kiwi back early on.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include December industrial production and trade data for the Eurozone. Following some disappointing industrial production figures from member states, we can expect plenty of interest in the numbers.

Trade data will need to provide support, however, as the Eurozone continues to struggle amidst containment measures.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.2122.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment and vaccination news on the day. Progress on the vaccination front has fueled hopes of an early end to lockdown measures, driving Pound support.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.20% to $1.3877.

Across the Pond

There are no material stats due out of the U.S, with the U.S markets closed for President’s Day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 90.441.

For the Loonie

It’s also a quiet day on the economic data front, with the Canadian markets closed for Family Day.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.08% to C$1.2686 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Asia-Pacific Currencies: Increased Demand for Risk Weakened Dollar while Underpinning Aussie, Kiwi and Yen

The Asia-Pacific currencies finished higher against the U.S. Dollar last week as investors began entertaining doubts about the scale of a recent rally driven by expectations of a faster pandemic recovery in the United States than elsewhere.

The downside pressure on the greenback actually began on February 5, when disappointing jobs data knocked the wind out of a two-week run that had lifted it to a more than two-month high against a basket of peers.

Investors had pushed up the dollar thanks to a faster U.S. vaccine rollout relative to most other countries, and as Democrats moved to fast-track President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package.

Last week’s price action suggests investors now think that massive fiscal spending coupled with continued ultra-easy Federal Reserve monetary policy will drag down the dollar over the long-run.

Rising global equity markets also lifted risk sentiment last week, helping to dampen the U.S. Dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Because of this shift in thinking, investors shed the dollar and moved money into the Japanese Yen. At the same time, riskier fiat currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars rose to multi-week highs.

Japanese Yen

Economic data from Japan was on light side last week, but one report showed that business sentiment among workers in Japan with jobs sensitive to economic trends fell for the third straight month in January, under the latest state of emergency declaration over the resurging coronavirus pandemic, government data showed.

The diffusion index of confidence in current conditions compared with three months earlier among “economy watchers” such as taxi drivers and restaurant staff dropped 3.1 points from December to 31.2, according to the Cabinet Office. But the pace of decline was slower than the decrease of 9.5 points logged in the previous month and the 9.2 points marked in December.

The USD/JPY settled the week at 104.922, down 0.463 or -0.44%.

Australian Dollar

A measure of Australian consumer sentiment bounced back toward a decade high in February as the largely successful containment of coronavirus outbreaks in some cities offered reassurance on the economic outlook.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment released on Wednesday rose 1.9% in February, recouping a chunk of January’s 4.5% drop caused when partial lockdowns spooked consumers.

That left the index up a solid 14.2% on February last year at 109.1, indicating optimists clearly outnumber pessimists.

The AUD/USD settled last week at .7761, up 0.0083 or +1.08%.

New Zealand Dollar

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s own survey of inflation expectations revealed a marked pick-up in the one-year outlook to 1.73%, while the two-year forecast climbed to 1.89% and near the middle of the central bank’s 1-3% target band.

The NZD/USD settled the week at .7220, up 0.0019 or +0.26%.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the Pound and the UK Economy in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was another quiet start to the Day on the economic calendar this morning, with the China market closed. Ahead of the Asian open, the Kiwi Dollar was in action once more.

For the Kiwi Dollar

In January, the Business PMI jumped from 48.7 to 57.5, reversing a tumble from 55.3 to 48.7 in December.

Looking at the sub-indexes,

  • The production sub-index rose from 52.3 to 59.1, with the employment sub-index rising from 50.2 to 55.4.
  • More impressively, however, was a jump in the new orders sub-index from 50.3 to 62.4. Back in April 2020, the sub-index had stood at 16.9.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.72264 to $0.72291 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.04% to $0.7230.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was flat at ¥104.75 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.04% to $0.7749.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include finalized January inflation figures for Spain and December industrial production figures for the Eurozone.

Expect the Eurozone’s industrial production figures to be the key driver.

At the time of writing, the EUR was flat at $1.2130.

For the Pound

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Industrial and manufacturing production figures December and 4th quarter GDP numbers will be in focus.

With the UK government’s vaccine rollout programme delivering a high vaccine rate, the markets will be looking for a speedy economic recovery. Concerns over the possible impact of new strains of the virus on lockdown measures remains an issue, however.

That could limit the cushioning from any dire 4th quarter and December numbers.

Other stats including business investment and trade data are also due out but should have a muted impact on the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.3810.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim consumer sentiment and expectation figures for February are due out later today.

Expect the Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures to have the greatest impact.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will continue to be a key driver.

On Thursday, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.05% to 90.417.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic data front. Wholesale sales figures for December are due out.

Barring dire numbers, however, the stats should have a muted impact on the Loonie.

Market risk sentiment and crude oil prices will remain the key driver at the end of the week.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was flat at C$1.2705 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves U.S Jobless Claims and Capitol Hill in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a quieter start to the Day on the economic calendar this morning, with the China and Japan markets closed. Ahead of the Asian open, the Kiwi Dollar was in action, with economic data from the UK also in focus.

For the Kiwi Dollar

In January, electronic card retail sales fell by 0.4%, month-on-month. In December, electronic card retail sales had declined by 0.6%.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Spending on durables rose by 2.1%, with motor vehicle (excl. fuel) sales rising by 1.7% in the month.
  • Apparel sales fell by 2.0%, however, with spending on consumables declining by 1.3%.
  • Spending on fuel fell by a modest 0.3% in the month.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.72124 to $0.72153 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.12% to $0.7207.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was flat at ¥104.59 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.05% to $0.7718.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of stimulus talk and sentiment towards the economic outlook.

Expect any surprise speedbumps on Capitol Hill to deliver a relief package to be EUR negative.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.01% to $1.2117.

For the Pound

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK.

The lack of stats will continue to leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment.

Earlier in the day, house price figures were in focus.

In January, the RICS House Price Balance fell from a revised 63% to 50%. The numbers had a muted impact on the Pound, however, with the markets less focused on the real estate sector at present.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.05% to $1.3827.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. U.S jobless claims are in focus later today.

With plenty of focus on labor market conditions, expect the numbers to influence market risk sentiment on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will continue to be a key driver.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.10% to 90.465.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day on the economic data front, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of the IEA and OPEC’s monthly reports and market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.2708 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Put the EUR and Dollar in the Spotlight, with ECB President Lagarde also in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively busy start to the Day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action, with economic data from the China also in focus.

For the Aussie Dollar

In February, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 1.9% to 109.1. In January, the index had fallen by 4.5% to 107.0. Economists had forecast a 1.0% increase.

Sentiment remained strong in February, which is key to a more positive outlook on consumer spending.

According to the latest Westpac Report,

  • The upside in February came following January’s pullback from a 10-year high in December.

Looking at the sub-indexes:

  • Family finances vs a year ago slipped by 0.6% to 88.8. By contrast, family finances next 12-months rose by 2.6% to 111.4. The sub-index was also up by 12.4% year-on-year.
  • The economic conditions next 12-months jumped by 6.9% to 109.8 and was up by 22.9% year-on-year.
  • Sentiment towards employment conditions also improved. The Unemployment Expectations Index fell by 3.8% to 114.5 and was down by 15% year-on-year.

Wpac sub-Indicators

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77380 to $0.77413 upon release of the figures that preceded inflation figures from China. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.12% to $0.7730.

From China

Inflation figures were in focus.

In January, deflationary pressures returned. Consumer prices fell by 0.3%, year-on-year, reversing a 0.2% rise from December. Economists had forecast a 0.1% decline.

Month-on-month, however, consumer prices rose by 1.0% following a 0.7% increase in December. Economists had also forecast a 1.0% rise.

Wholesale inflationary pressures returned in January. The producer price index rose by 0.3%, year-on-year, partially reversing a 0.4% decline from December. Economists had forecast a 0.4% increase.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77282 to $0.77300 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% to ¥104.66 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.19% to $0.7228.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized German inflation figures for January and French industrial production figures for December are due out.

Expect the French industrial production figures to have the greatest impact on the EUR.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is also scheduled to speak later in the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.2114.

For the Pound

It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK.

The lack of stats will continue to leave the Pound in the hands of COVID-19 news updates and market risk sentiment.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.3811.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. January inflation figures are due out of the U.S later today.

Barring particularly dire numbers, we don’t expect the stats to have a material impact on the Dollar.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.09% to 90.523.

For the Loonie

It’s another quiet day on the economic data front, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil inventory numbers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.09% to C$1.2705 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.