MIB Futures Forecast December 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese exchange had a fairly negative session for much of the Tuesday trading day, but the futures found support at the 15,000 level yet again. This bounce formed a hammer; it appears that a break of the highs from the Tuesday session should see this market march back towards the 16,200 level.

Whether or not we can get through that level was completely different conversation, but nonetheless it does look like a short-term opportunity is presenting itself right now. On a break above the highs from the Tuesday session, buying this contract could be the way to go for the next three or 400 points.

 

MIB Futures Forecast December 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast December 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast December 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB futures market fell during the session on Monday, but got a little bit of a bounce just above the 15,350 level. We are currently in the middle of a larger consolidation area between 15,000 and 16,000 so we are not necessarily looking for trades at this point in time.

Currently, we like buying this market the closer we get the 15,000 and will do so when that happens. Until that happens though, it is going to be very difficult to be involved in the Italian markets. With all this being said, there will be easier opportunities found in Europe.

 

MIB Futures Forecast December 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast December 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index Futures forecast for the week of December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese Index futures attempted to break out above the 16,000 level this past week, but failed and formed a shooting star. While this would normally be somewhat concerning, it should be noted that the week before produced a hammer as well. This suggests to us that we will see back and forth action in the short-term and possibly through the remainder of the year. This would make sense, as liquidity dries up during the month of December in the futures markets, and especially smaller ones such as the MIB. With this being said, this does not look like a long-term traders market to us until we break out well above the 16,500 level, or break down below the 15,000 level.

MIB Index Futures Forecast December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB Index futures fell 0.86% during the Friday session as the market pullback in order to look for support at 15,600. We did get a bit of a bounce, and the candle for the day looks much like a hammer, suggesting that we could see a bounce higher. We still think that there is a significant amount of support down at the 15,600 level, but we also see that there is a bit of a top in this market at the 16,200 level for the short-term. All this being said, we expect this market to be somewhat soft but have the ability to break out to the upside on a supportive candle just below current pricing.

MIB Index Futures Forecast December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures Forecast December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index Futures Forecast December 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese index fell during the session on Thursday as 16,000 continues offer quite a bit of resistance. In fact, we see resistance all the way up to 16,500 and as a result are hesitant to go long of this marketplace right now. We think that pullbacks will eventually meet support, and at that point in time buying is possible. Until then though, we simply are not interested. The alternate route to buying this market is seeing a daily close above the 16,500 level. As for selling, a break down below the 15,800 level would invite a move down to 15,500 or so.

MIB Index Futures Forecast December 7, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures Forecast December 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast December 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB futures did very little during the session on Wednesday as we continue to sit just below the 16,000 level. Above 16,000 we see significant resistance going all the way to the 16,500 area, and as a result we are not ready to start buying. In fact, we feel quite certain that the resistance will eventually become too much for the buyers of this market based upon the exhausted look of this chart.

Looking forward, we think that a pullback would be necessary to build up enough pressure to break out to the upside. We also see a significant amount of support at the 15,000 level, so we don’t necessarily think any meltdown is in the future either. We suggest that a pullback to the 15,500 level is very likely at this point

MIB Futures Forecast December 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast December 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast December 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB futures rose during the session on Tuesday, and now look poised for a breakout. There are two things going on at the moment that we currently see in this market. The first one is a downtrend line that has been broken. If you’re a more aggressive traders, that is by far a strong enough signal to start buying. However, if you are a bit more risk averse like we are, will wait for the market to make a fresh high. We have been circled on the chart, and think that it is at roughly the 16,100 level that we could see buyers stepped back into the marketplace and put prices higher.

 

MIB Futures Forecast December 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast December 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB index moved very little during the session on Monday, losing 70 points at the end of the day. We still find ourselves just below the 16,000 level, and as such we are at the top of the recent consolidation area. We still like the look of shorting this market, and would do so on a break of the Monday lows. As far as buying is concerned, we see far too much noise between current levels and 16,500 in order to get involved. Also, we do not like buying the periphery of Europe even though it appears that the European Central Bank has provided a nice backstop for some of these countries.

 

MIB Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index futures for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese index fell during much of the session was over the previous week, but bounced in order to form a hammer just under the 16,000 level. This looks like a market that’s trying to rise over time, but there is a ton of resistance between 16,000 and 16,500 or so. With that being the case, we also see quite a bit of resistance all the way up to 17,000 also. With all that noise, there are simply easier trades out there to be involved with. With that in mind, we do believe that there is an upward bias, but are not interested in trading from a longer-term perspective right now.

 

MIB Index futures for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index futures for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index Futures Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

Milan had a relatively quiet day on Friday, but did show weakness and the 16,000 level. Because of this, it is very likely that we will see a pullback over the next couple of sessions, perhaps for as much as 400 points. This market is very choppy and therefore very ugly – exactly the type of market we are not interested in on the whole. With that being said, we will more than likely stay on the sidelines going forward, at least until the market makes some type of clear move in one direction or the other.

 

MIB Index Futures Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese index initially fell during the session on Thursday, but got quite a boost by the end of the day and search much higher. The candle that we have before us looks like it is one that is going to attempt a breakout above the 16,000 level, and as such we could have a significant break out on her hands over the course of the next couple trading sessions. If we do get this, there is a chance that we will reach for new highs.

However, we are very leery of getting to heavily involved in the Italian markets as although Italy is much stronger than some of the other peripheral countries, it is still in the periphery of Europe. With that being said, Italy will more than likely suffer quite a bit more economic pain than other places such as France and Germany, and because of this we are more it shouldn’t being long as one of those core countries as opposed to this one.

A break above the 16,000 level on a daily close is a bullish sign, but once we get above 16,250, we don’t think there’s much of a chance of the resistance going. We think the ultimate barrier above that will be 17,000 or so, but the truth is that by the time we get the 16,500 the resistance will be all but broken.

As for the downside, we see 15,000 is a massive support zone that will take quite a bit of effort to break down below. We had originally thought that we were building a nice descending triangle, but the candle from Thursday has broken above will be the descending trend line at the top of it. Because of this, we think that the markets will either be sideways, or bullish. With the volumes getting less and less significant as we get into the month of December, we think that consolidation is probably a more likely scenario than some type of massive breakout. With this in mind, we are more than willing to sell resistive candles in this general vicinity as we think a return back down towards the 15,000 level makes sense.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese index fell during the session on Wednesday as we continue to see an overall malaise in this marketplace. The peripheral parts of Europe in general are suffering, and Italy would be no exception. If we managed to break down below the lows from the trading session on Wednesday, we think we could easily fall back down to the 15,000 level. In fact, that is our base case, and that is what we expect to see. We are not interested in buying this market, and will only sell it on that break down.

 

MIB Index Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB futures fell during the Tuesday session as the high made recently has been yet again lower than the previous one. The hammer from the Monday session wasn’t quite broken to the downside, so we can’t say that a significantly bearish move has been made, but we do suspect that prices will be going lower.

Without a doubt, Italy is one of the last places we would like to be if we have to trading European stocks or indices. This is been shown in this chart, as we have a slow gradual drift lower. With this in mind, we are selling this market on a break of the lows from the Monday session.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis

Milan had a negative session on Monday initially, but we got a bit of a bounce in order to rise back above the 15,500 level. We now have formed a hammer for the session, and it looks like we are going to try and get to the 16,000 level next. We are not big fans of buying the periphery of Europe at the moment, but if you had to – this would more than likely be the market to do so in. We would also advise that the 16,000 level should provide quite a bit of resistance, and as such we would be very quick to take profits.

 

MIB  Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index Futures forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese index futures had a relatively strong performance over the last five sessions, but remained mired within the previous consolidation area. Between the 15,000 and 16,000 levels, there seems to be quite a bit of congestion that is currently keeping the market in a tight range.

We also see quite a bit of resistance all the way up to 17,000. With that in mind, we think that a significant break below the 15,000 level makes more sense, especially when you consider the fact that it’s Italy that we are talking about. On a move below that handle, we are more than willing to start selling this market again. As far as buying this market, we would need to see a significant move and daily close above the 17,000 level.

 

MIB Index Futures forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB Index fell initially during the Friday trading session, but bounced off of the 15,400 level in order to form a hammer at the end of the day. We should point out that the 15,800 level above begins a significant resistance area, and as such we are not willing to take this supportive sign as a buy signal. However, if we managed to break down below the bottom of the hammer from Friday, we are more than willing to start selling as we think the resistance is starting to build up as evidence by the lower high is that we’ve seen recently. Also, you have to keep in mind that the problems in Europe are far from being solved and Italy is one of the weaker countries.

 

MIB Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 23, 2012, Technical Analysis

Italian futures rose during the session on Thursday as the market continues to grind away in the previous consolidation. The real question now is whether or not this is going to be a rectangle, or a descending triangle. Right now, it cannot be missed that the 15,000 level is acting is great support, while the highs keep getting lower in this marketplace. With that being said, it looks more like a descending triangle to us. However, as we are in a somewhat bit of “no man’s land”, we are not willing to take a position at this point in time. If we managed to make a move above the 16,200 level we would begin buying at that point. Otherwise, we are simply looking for resistant candle in order to sell.

MIB Futures Forecast November 23, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 23, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 22, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB futures market continued to grind slightly higher as the bullishness in Italy continued. However, we are currently just underneath the 15,500 level, which of course is the middle of a big resistance area. Because of this, we are actually looking for weak looking candles in which to sell.

As long as Europe is in trouble, we are very hesitant to get involved in buying Italian stocks or the index. We think that we are essentially in consolidation at this point, with a slightly downward bias. With that being said, we are looking for weak price action above in order to get a bit of momentum on the downside.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 22, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 22, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB Index rose during the session on Tuesday as the 15,000 level continues to hold as support. However, we do think that the overall tone of this market is down as evidence by the lower highs over the last several months. Looking at this market, it does not look like when we want to own, and you can also make a bit of an argument for a potential descending triangle forming.

With this being said, if we managed to close below the 14,800 level we would start selling this market aggressively as Italy certainly won’t be one of the safer places in Europe to hide in bad economic times. With the core of Europe starting to see recessionary problems, we have a hard time believing that Italy will do much better.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Index Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB futures rose during the session on Monday as the 15,000 level has held as support again. This area is the “floor” in the recent action, and also the bottom of a massive descending triangle that seems to be forming.

Italy is not a place we look to invest in right now, so buying this market isn’t that interesting to us, even though we got a nice bounce on Monday. We think that eventually this support gives way, and should set up a nice run down to 14,000 or so.

 

MIB Index Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis