MIB Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB index fell apart during the Friday session, as we have broken below the 15,000 level. We now set up for the 14,800 level to break down, and this would be a break of the last bit of support in this general vicinity. Because of this, a break of the lows from the Friday session has a selling this market aggressively, and aiming for 14,000. With the recession in Europe finally announced, it would not be surprising at all to see this market fall and assert the bearishness that we have quite frankly been waiting for.

 

MIB Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese index struggled during the session on Thursday as we continue to consolidate just above the 15,000 level. We see this area as significant support, and if it does get broken down below, we could see a real rush of selling. Because of Europe falling into recession, Italy is one of the last places we think investing would be palatable for most traders.

With this in mind, we see the 15,000 level is simply a barrier. This barrier needs to be overcome, and as long as the highs keep getting lower, it does look like we are building up pressure to break down. On a break down below the 15,000 level, and especially if we can get a daily close below that number, we would become very bearish of this market in start selling aggressively. We think if this happens, 14,000 is calling as a target.

With recessionary forces all across the continent, it is hard to believe that people who are not willing to invest in Germany would be bothered to invest in Italy. The Italian economy is still weak, and there is a considerable amount of headwinds in front of the Italians presently. Because of this, we think that they are a second-tier economy in Europe at best, and would not be bothered to do anything but short their markets.

Alternately, something of course can happen and we could see support at this level again. However, we would need to see a break well above the 16,000 level in order to be convinced of the bullishness of this market. It is simply too difficult to believe in the solidity of this market as the rest of Europe falls apart. With this, we see rallies as an opportunity for us to sell from higher levels and make larger profits. Unless the Europeans suddenly find themselves fixing the debt issue, we don’t see a scenario where this market rises over the long term. We will simply pick off a few trades here and there to the downside in this market based upon short-term charts.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese index rose during the session on Wednesday, as it bounced off of the 15,000 level. This was an obvious support zone, so the bounce certainly wasn’t overly surprising. However, we saw a serious selloff of the “risk year assets” at the end of the US session, which of course would have been well after most European traders went home.

With this in mind, we aren’t as confident of this bullish candle as we would be under normal circumstances. The 15,000 level needs to hold in order to continue the sideways grind we have seen in this market in our opinion. However, it should be noted that the highs recently have been getting lower, and we do suspect that the Italians will not react well to the idea of the US going over the fiscal cliff. With the various political players in the United States seemingly at a standstill, we could see a real risk off type of day. However, we break the top of the candle from the Wednesday session; we fully believe that 15,800 is obtainable. On a break of the lows though, we would become aggressively short of this market and aim for 14,000.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB had a slightly positive session on Tuesday, but more importantly had triggered the buy area at the top of the Monday hammer. Because of this, we believe we are heading back towards the 16,000 level. With this in mind, we are willing to buy this futures market at this moment in time, but do recognize that the highs are getting lower in a general sense as well.

With this in mind, we look at this is simply a short-term trading opportunity, and not anything that we are willing to stay too long in. As for selling, if we managed to break down below the bottom of the Monday range, we would get aggressively short as this would be a failure of serious support.

 

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis
FTSE MIB Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB Index futures fell during the session on Monday, but found quite a bit of support at the 15,000 level. This level has been significant support, and because of this a break of the top of Monday’s hammer would be a buy signal for us. We think that this market should continue higher to the 16,000 level, and will more than likely find resistance there.

Simply put, Italy is one of the countries in Europe that is so sick right now. Until the European situation moves in one direction or the other, is to be very difficult to see this market pick up any steam.

 

MIB Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB futures fell for most of the five sessions this previous week. However, we still remain within the consolidation area of 15,000 in the bottom, and 16,000 be in the top. Because of this, we do not see an opportunity to trade this pair from a long-term perspective at the moment. However, we do see a break below the 15,000 level as being significant, and would have us put a position on. Alternately, if we managed to break above the 70,000 level we think that the all clear would be given to go much higher.

 

MIB Futures Forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB futures fell during most of the session on Friday, but found quite a bit of a bid at the 15,000 level. This makes sense, as it is such a large round psychological number, and the fact that it is the bottom of the recent consolidation that we have been trying to form.

Looking at this chart, it is obvious that this market gets very bearish underneath the 14,800 level, and bullish above the break of Friday’s candlestick. If we do break to the upside, we should see a move to the 15,800 level. If we break below, we would think that a move to 14,000 couldn’t be ruled out.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis

The FTSE MIB index on Thursday broke down fairly significantly, but remains above the 15,000 level. A lot had a tough day in general, and as such it is no surprise that we had back down to this massive support area. One has to wonder whether or not the series of lower highs isn’t signaling the 15,000 will get broken sooner or later, and signal a big leg down in this market.

With all of the problems going on in Europe, it would not be a surprise to see the Italian suffer because of it. After all, it is part of the periphery and we are starting to see Germany itself slowdown. If the Germans cannot keep the economy going, the Italian certainly won’t be able to either.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB fell during the session on Wednesday, after initially trying to rally. Unlike many of its other European friends, the MIB simply could not put much of a rally together to begin with and in fact was one of the least impressive attempts. We closed the very lows of the session, and it looks like we are trying to break down through the 15,250 level, in order to reach the 15,000 area. If we get below 15,000, this could get aggressively ugly in very short order. We would become very short of this market at that point time, and would aim for roughly the 14,000 area. However, we could see support just above the 15,000 level, and that would more than likely signal a return to the 15,750 level as we continue to consolidate.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese stocks fell initially during the session on Tuesday, as we see and this futures chart. However, we did get bullish action by the end of the day and formed a hammer to close out the Tuesday session. This hammer suggests that we are going higher, but we are currently grinding out a symmetrical triangle suggesting that we will have a sharp move sooner or later. With this in mind, we are very hesitant to take position in this market at the moment, but a move above 16,200 would have us buying hand over fist. As for selling, a move below 15,000 would be very bad news.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

Milanese stocks did very little during the session on Monday, and the futures market reflected that. Quite frankly, this market looks very quiet and like it wants to do nothing in the interim. Presently, we see this market being consolidate between the 15,000 and the 16,000 levels. With that being said, we are in the center of that consolidation pattern, so see no real trade at this point time.

Looking at this market, it should be said that there is an upward bias to this market until recently. With that being said, we feel that some kind of decision will be made soon, but in the meantime we have to assume the consolidation continues.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB Futures had a very tight range during the week as it has for over a month now. Currently, this is going to be very difficult market for longer-term biased traders to be trading. However, we have cleared levels such as the 15,000 level that would get us involved in this marketplace. If we can get below 15,000 on a daily close, we would become aggressively short of this market.

On the other hand, if we can get above the 16,500 level, we think we could begin to build momentum to finally break above the 17,000 level. If we get above that 17,000 level, this market would suddenly become a very bullish market.

 

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
FTSE MIB Futures Forecast for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The malign exchange had a fairly strong session on Friday considering how weak most global markets truly were. However, the range still isn’t that significant in the futures market, and as such we are currently drifting higher in what is a relatively small consolidation area.

We see the 16,500 level as a serious hurdle to having this market go much higher. However, there are short-term opportunities now if we can get above the highs from the Friday session. Nonetheless, we still think there is only about 500 points in this move. On the other hand, if we managed to break the lows from the Friday session, we would be willing to sell a small position. If we managed to get below 15,000 on a daily close, we would become a rest only short of this market as it would show significant support giving way.

 

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
FTSE MIB Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 2, Technical Analysis

The MIB index reflected Italian optimism during the Thursday session as we bounce from the recent hammer. This market looks like it is trying to gain steam at this point time, but it should be noted we are currently forming a symmetrical triangle. This of course means that we could see a fairly strong move in one direction or the other, and that the balance has been found between buyers and sellers.

Sooner or later, something will come out that will move the markets in one direction or the other. When this happens, we would become very bearish if it breaks lower, or very bullish of your breaks higher. Until that happens of course, we are going to be flat of this market.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 2, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 2, Technical Analysis

MIB Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB had a fairly quiet session on Wednesday as the market continues to find support above the 15,000 level. This should continue to support the market, and as such we think we are simply stuck between 15,000 and 16,500.

Investing in the markets beyond core Europe is a difficult thing to do at this moment in time, and as such illegal continue to have a little bit of a drag on its indices. Looking forward, we need to break out of this range in order to place a longer-term trade, and we think that if 15,000 manages to get broken down, we could fall much quicker. As for going long, it is a little bit messier up top, but we feel a strong move above 16,500 would bring in the long-term buyers.

 

MIB Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis
MIB Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

Milan saw a slight increase during the session after first falling on Tuesday. Right now, it looks as if this market has significant support at the 15,000 level, as such we are not willing to sell at this point time. If we managed to break the highs from the Tuesday session however, we would be willing to take a small long position in this futures market.

The longer this European debt crisis drags out, the more complacent people seem to get about the prospects of some type of meltdown. Because of this, these peripheral indices will occasionally get a slow grind higher as the fear creeps out of the market. This is what we believe is happening currently, and as such do expect to see higher prices.

 

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis
FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

Milanese stocks rose during the session on Monday, as the 15,300 level continues to offer support. The MIB certainly looks like it’s range bound with an upward bias at this point time, but the fact is that it is going to be difficult to be long of Italian stocks while the bonds start to increasing yield in that country. The cousin this, we are avoiding the MIB at this moment in time, but think eventually we should get some type of clear signal in the vicinity of 15,000.

If 15000 gives way to the sellers, we think that this market could fall significantly. It is because of this that we are watching this marketplace very carefully, but truthfully we just simply do not traded much. It needs to be a situation where it only has its finances in order to get us to become aggressive traders, but we do understand the fact that if this market let’s go, we could see a significant fall and we certainly would be willing to take advantage of it.

 

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis
FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

Milan found itself fairly quiet during the previous week, as we continued to pump around just below the 16,000 level. Because of this, it is difficult to trade this market long-term until we clear either the 15,000 level in order to start selling or the 17,000 level in order to start buying as it would represent a breakout above a double top.

Trading the European periphery will be very difficult going forward until there is some type of solution to the debt crisis. If and when Spain asked for the inevitable bailout, it’s very likely that this market will continue higher. However, until that happens more than likely going to be a short-term traders market at best.

 

FTSE MIB forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
FTSE MIB forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB Forecast October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Milanese index rose during the session on Friday in order to bounce from the 15,400 level. We actually see the major support being down 15,000, so were somewhat in the middle of “no man’s land.” With this in mind, we don’t necessarily see a decent trade set up at this point time, and would actually welcome a is fall back to the 15,000 level in order to look for support, and a more obvious trade.

To the upside, we have quite a bit of resistance going all the way to the 16,600 level. With this in mind, we do need to see a fall and some type of support in order to start buying again. If we managed to break the 14,800 level, we would be more than willing to start selling aggressively in the futures market.

 

FTSE MIB Forecast October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
FTSE MIB Forecast October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

The MIB fell during the session as the 15,500 level was tested for support. We are currently in the middle of a larger consolidation area, so we aren’t necessarily pressed to be in this market one way or the other. Also, we are not big fans of being long of the periphery in Europe right now, and as such we are more than willing to be on the sidelines.

If we fall, we think that the 15,000 level should offer support. If that level gives way to the sellers, we think this market will come undone at that point. However, we think that the on the 15000 giving way is a bit remote.

 

FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 26, 2012, Technical Analysis
FTSE MIB Futures Forecast October 26, 2012, Technical Analysis