GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

Amid the absence of fundamentals from the U.K. and U.S. as well as other major economies, the main focus remained on the latest developments in the euro where the sentiment showed a slight improvement before Chancellor Angela Merkel meets today with the President of the International Monetary Fund Lagarde, causing the pair to rise for the second day.   

The pair did a downside correction to halt the downside direction on Monday after Merkel-Sarkozy meeting in Berlin which tackled a rulebook for closer fiscal compact in the euro zone. 

Now, there is slight optimism European leaders are on their way to resolve the crisis before they meet in the EU summit on January 30.

On Tuesday The Greek government sold 1.625 billion euros of six-month notes with a decline in yield to 4.90% compared with 4.95% in December’s auction.

This week, more attention will be given to Spain and Italy as Spain will sell bills maturing in 2015 and 2016, while Italy is expected to auction 3-, 5- and 15- year bills.

On Wednesday, U.K. visible trade balance report for the month of Nov. will be due at 09:30 GMT, where expectations refer to a widening in the deficit to 8350 million pounds from 7557 million pounds a month before.

In the U.S., MBA mortgage applications for Jan. 6 will be released at 12:00 GMT, followed by Fed’s Beige Book at 19:00 GMT.

The data is expected to affect the pair’s movement, yet the pair will probably be more affected by the general sentiment which is focusing on the latest developments from the euro zone.

USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Amid the absence of fundamentals from major economies, the sentiment showed a slight improvement before Chancellor Angela Merkel meets today with the President of the International Monetary Fund Lagarde, causing the pair to drop for the second day.   

The pair did a downside correction to halt the upside trend on Monday after Merkel-Sarkozy meeting in Berlin which tackled a rulebook for closer fiscal compact in the euro zone. 

Meanwhile, there is slight optimism European leaders are on their way to resolve the crisis before they meet in the EU summit on January 30.

The Greek government sold 1.625 billion euros on Tuesday of six-month notes with a decline in yield to 4.90% compared with 4.95% in December’s auction.

This week, eyes will be on Spain and Italy as they sell bonds; Spain will sell bills maturing in 2015 and 2016, while Italy is expected to auction 3-, 5- and 15- year bills.

For the franc, it took some advance after policy maker Philipp Hildebrand resigned on Monday.  

On Wednesday, the U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications for Jan. 6 at 12:00 GMT followed by Fed’s Beige Book at 19:00 GMT.

The data is expected to has a slight affect the pair’s movement due to its low relevance, where the pair will probably also be affected by the general sentiment which is focusing on the latest developments from the euro area.

USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair traded in a narrow range early Tuesday, where the US dollar and the Japanese yen retreated against most of their major counterparts since the beginning of the week.

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy summarized further steps to accelerate the progress on the fiscal pact, which provided the FX market with positive sentiment and helped the major currencies to hold ground against the yen and the dollar.

The latest period in the global financial market confirmed that the EU debt crisis is the main influence on the sentiment, which in roll reflected on the higher-yielding assets demand.

On Wednesday at 05:00 GMT, Japan will release the Coincident Index for November, where the preliminary reading is expected to come at 90.3 from the prior 91.4.

On the other hand, the Japanese Leading Index for November is expected at 92.9 from the prior reading of 92.0.

The U.S. economy will issue the MBA Mortgage Applications at 12:00 GMT, which had a prior reading of – 4.10%.

NZD/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

NZD/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
NZD/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The NZD/USD pair advanced to its highest level in two months, as the New Zealand dollar was able to record gains against US dollar after the risk aversion retreated from financial market.

On the other hand, the absence of the fundamentals from the New Zealand economy opened the way for Kiwi to move in line with the current market sentiment, which supported the higher-yielding currencies.

Markets are still focused on Europe and the developments to contain the crisis after Merkel and Sarkozy ended the meeting with confirmations that they are making progress. Any developments in the EU crisis will have its toll on the investors’ confidence, where the major currencies movements will be affected sharply by the EU news.

On Wednesday, the U.S. economy will issue the MBA Mortgage Applications at 12:00 GMT, which had a prior reading of – 4.10%.

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 11, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The AUD/USD pair advanced for the second day on the back of the risk appetite that returned to the FX market, where the US dollar retreated against other majors giving a chance for the higher-yielding currencies to cover their previous losses.

The Australian dollar advanced despite the flat Australian retail sales during November, where the current discussion between the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy provided the FX market with confidence, opening the way for Aussie to record more gains.

The weak data from the Australian economy fueled concerns regarding the interest rate, where the RBA could cut the rate further in order to support the economic recovery.

On Wednesday at 23:30 GMT (Tuesday), Australia will release the Westpac Consumer Confidence for January, where the previous reading was down by 94.7.

The U.S. economy will issue the MBA Mortgage Applications at 12:00 GMT, which had a prior reading of –4.10%.

Natural Gas Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Natural gas prices dropped as meteorologists predicts that mild weather will widen the surplus of the heating fuel, and that may affect the demand on natural gas in the next few days.

Traders will continue to focus on weather developments, where weather forecasts suggest temperatures will be likely lower than average over the coming period, and that could put natural gas between gains and losses.

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CAD pair was mix, as the French president and the German Chancellor made slight progress regarding the new budget rules; however, they provided markets with nothing new and further details were not seen, therefore, the euro remained mixed after the news as markets are still waiting for details on how leaders will solve the debt crisis and how they will apply the new budget rules.

Eyes will be spotted on this year, and the performance of the European economy, especially after the ECB lent the European banks huge amount of money, and if that money will help the euro zone to continue recovery process amid big challenges.

The USD/CAD pair could still rise if pessimism continues to dominate markets, as uncertainty remains the main theme in markets, and that could also lead to deep fluctuations for the USD/CAD pair.

Tuesday January 10:

Canada will release the report of Housing starts for the month of December; it is expected to show a decline reaching 181.1 thousand units. Moreover, eyes will still focused on Europe and the crises that could cause any change in trading.

Gold Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

Gold Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Gold Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices declined as market gained some momentum during Monday’s sessions after upbeat data from Germany, as the German exports inclined by 2.5% compared with the prior decline of 2.9%, noting that the trade balance showed a surplus of 16.2 billion euro better than expected in Germany.

However, the French president and the German Chancellor made slight progress regarding the new budget rules; while they provided markets with nothing new and further details were not seen, therefore, the euro remained mixed after the news as markets are still waiting for details on how leaders will solve the debt crisis and how they will apply the new budget rules.

Now, eyes will be spotted on this year, and the performance of the European economy, especially after the ECB lent the European banks huge amount of money, and if that money will help the euro zone to continue recovery process amid big challenges.

Accordingly, we should expect more fluctuations for gold, but should the current pessimism persist, we should expect gold prices to extend the rallies, however, the level of uncertainty is very high, and investors are ought to remain cautious.

Crude Oil Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

Crude Oil Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Crude Oil Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Crude oil prices declined as market gained some momentum during Monday’s sessions after upbeat data from Germany, as the German exports inclined by 2.5% compared with the prior decline of 2.9%, noting that the trade balance showed a surplus of 16.2 billion euro better than expected in Germany.

However, the French president and the German Chancellor made slight progress regarding the new budget rules; however, they provided markets with nothing new and further details were not seen, therefore, the euro remained mixed after the news as markets are still waiting for details on how leaders will solve the debt crisis and how they will apply the new budget rules.

Now, eyes will be spotted on this year, and the performance of the European economy, especially after the ECB lent the European banks huge amount of money, and if that money will help the euro zone to continue recovery process amid big challenges.

The outlook for crude oil prices remains generally to the downside, as persistent fears from the EU debt crisis and signs global growth is slowing are likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure, where traders will also continue to monitor the developments from the 17-bloc euro nation and the European leaders’ latest moves to contain the debt crisis.

 

 

EUR/CHF Forecast January 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

EUR/CHF Forecast January 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
EUR/CHF Forecast January 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The EUR/CHF pair fluctuated heavily yesterday after the Swiss National Bank President, Philipp Hidebrand, shocked markets and resigned. The chief stepped down after controversy over currency trades made by his wife ahead of the SNB move of weakening the franc.

Moreover, the euro declined against the franc after Merkel and Sarkozy disappointed markets as usual and provided nothing new to investors.

In general, today the euro is expected to remain volatile as investors will weigh the resignation of the SNB president; however, will the lack of fundamentals awaited from Europe and Switzerland today, markets will track the several bond auctions due today.

Auctions:

Netherlands will sell bonds at 09:00 GMT.

Austria, Malta and Greece will auction bonds at 10:00 GMT.

Slovenia will auction bonds at 12:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Forecast January 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

EUR/USD Forecast January 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast January 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The EUR/USD pair was able to record some gains on Monday after the flow of upbeat fundamentals from the euro-area region, and also after Germany was able to sell bonds on a negative yield; however, after the European Central Bank announcement, which explained that European Banks’ overnight deposits at the ECB climbed again to all-time record, the pair surrendered some of the gains on fears an interbank lending freeze could hurt the financial sector and the region’s economy.

The pair was not able to recover the gains lost after the results of the German-Franco meeting, where the French president and the German Chancellor made slight progress regarding the new budget rules; however, they provided markets with nothing new and further details were not seen, therefore, the euro remained mixed after the news as markets are still waiting for details on how leaders will solve the debt crisis and how they will apply the new budget rules.

Merkel also warned that Greece will not obtain the second bailout unless leaders make progress in the rescue plan, noting that private creditors are still split over the write-downs.

Today, the pair is expected to be volatile especially with the lack of major economies from Europe and the United States; however, the focus will turn from macroeconomic data to the several auctions awaited today.

The United States will join the session at 15:00 GMT with the wholesale inventories index for November, which could have expanded by 0.5% from the previous expansion of 1.6%.

Auctions:

Netherlands will sell bonds at 09:00 GMT.

Austria, Malta and Greece will auction bonds at 10:00 GMT.

Slovenia will auction bonds at 12:00 GMT.

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The pair did an upside correction to halt the drop witnessed last week that was led by the dollar’s advance on the back of the concerns from the euro area which boosted safety demand on the greenback as a safe harbor.

On Monday, amid the absence of data from both economies, the pair followed the general sentiment in the market which saw correctional movements after last week’s bearishness, where the main direction for the pair will probably depend on the Sarkozy-Merkel meeting’s outcome on Monday and the latest developments in the euro area in the coming period, ahead of awaited bond selling from Italy and Spain and other euro zone economies.

On Tuesday, the U.S. economy will release less important data, including wholesale inventories as of 15:00 GMT.

The data is expected to has a slight affect the pair’s movement due to its low relevance, where the pair will probably also be affected by the general sentiment which is focusing on the latest developments from the euro area.

This week, the main focus will be on the BoE rate decision, trade, manufacturing and inflation data from the U.K. while the U.S. will release retail, trade and confidence, as well as other data.

USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The pair did a downside correction to halt the upside trend that was led by the dollar’s advance on the back of the concerns from the euro area which boosted safety demand on the greenback as a safe harbor.

On Monday, the Swiss data gave strong support for the franc as unemployment came in at 3.1% last year in comparison with 3.9% in 2010, despite the franc’s appreciation. In addition, Swiss retail sales climbed 1.8% in the year ended November, exceeding both expectations of 0.2% and the revised 0.1%.

With the improvement in the data, hopes increase the SNB would refrain from intervening again in the FX market to weaken the currency as the economy seem to be on the right track.

However, the main direction for the pair will probably depend on the Sarkozy-Merkel meeting’s outcome and the latest developments in the euro area in the coming period ahead of awaited bond selling from Italy and Spain and other euro zone economies.

On Tuesday, the U.S. economy will release less important data, including wholesale inventories as of 15:00 GMT.

The data is expected to has a slight affect the pair’s movement due to its low relevance, where the pair will probably also be affected by the general sentiment which is focusing on the latest developments from the euro area.

USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair fluctuated with the beginning of the week, where the strongest US data and the deteriorating conditions in Europe fuel instability in the financial market.

The strong US NFP’s numbers provided some confidence to the broader market sentiment, while the dollar gets benefit from the recovery in the employment sector in addition to the strong performance of the manufacturing sector in the United States.

However, concerns regarding the ongoing crisis in the EU had its toll on the market sentiment, which eroded gains in the major stocks indices and increased demand for safer assets.

The Germany and France leaders are about to meet in Berlin to discuss a plan for rescuing the EU countries from the toughest sovereign debt crisis. The euro and other European currencies recorded some gains against the dollar and the yen before the meeting, but the main sentiment is still towards safe havens.

On Tuesday at 15:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the Wholesale Inventories for November, where the previous reading was up by 1.6% and it’s expected to retreat to 0.4%.

NZD/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

NZD/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
NZD/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The NZD/USD pair covered most of its last week losses, where the New Zealand dollar advanced against most of its major counterparts as risk appetite increased with the beginning of the week.

The Germany and France leaders are about to meet in Berlin to discuss a plan for rescuing the EU countries from the toughest sovereign debt crisis. The expected meeting increased confidence in the FX market, and pushed the higher-yielding currencies higher against the greenback and the Japanese yen.

The latest FX market fluctuation proved that the EU sovereign debt crisis still the main theme for investors, and any strong fundamentals about the major economies will not be enough to erase the EU crisis effect.

On Tuesday at 21:45 GMT (Monday), the New Zealand economy will release the Building Permits for November, where it’s expected to come at 3.0% from the prior reading of 11.2%.

At 23:00 GMT QV House Prices will be released where the prior reading was 1.7%.

On Tuesday at 15:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the Wholesale Inventories for November, where the previous reading was up by 1.6% and it’s expected to retreat to 0.4%.

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 10, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The AUD/USD pair had a strong start for the week on Monday, where the pair covered some of its previous losses as Aussie gained more momentum against the US dollar on the back of the Merkel and Sarkozy meeting.

The dollar retreated against most of its major counterparts with the beginning of the week, after its strong performance with the end of last week. The euro was able to recover from its lowest level in more than a year against greenback, adding more pressure on the Federal currency.

The expected meeting between the Germany and France leaders provided markets with confidence, which drove the higher-yielding assets to the upside.

On Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, the Australian economy will issue the Building Approvals for November, where the previous reading was down by 10.7% and it’s expected to advance 6.0%, while the annual reading was down by 29.8% and the expectations refer to–19.6%.

At 15:00 GMT the U.S. economy will issue the Wholesale Inventories for November, where the previous reading was up by 1.6% and it’s expected to retreat to 0.4%.

Dollar, Euro, Oil and War

The dollar rides improved labor market data to rise the most against the euro in approximately 15 months, euro-contagion fears prompt leading banks to prepare post-euro contingency plans, China prepares for a hard landing and oil remains confused whether to take cue from Europe-debtor Iran-threat. Happy New Year.

Even as financial markets price in the pleasant employment surprise in America, they worry about how oil will react, already up six per cent last week on Iran worries, though the last two trading days brought some Europe inspired sobering. Yet the more America’s economy grows, the more oil’s complex pricing situation is further complicated. On the one hand, Europe’s debt drama and China’s slowdown should depress the’12 outlook. Ditto for commodity currencies like aussie, krone, loonie, etc. Yeton the other, expansion in the world’s largest economy will cause oil to rally from already high prices and challenge that growth. Remember ’08? Oil averaged$100 and induced a steep global recession. Last year’s brent crude average was$111. Take a hint. Add to that the very real threat of war in and around the straits of hormuz and $200 brent is a very real possibility. Long-traders cite neither side’s willingness to blink first as a credible sign of a sudden hike around the corner.

Downward pressure is likely to persist as Europe’s problems are going nowhere. If precedent is anything to go by, Merkel and Sarkozy’s meeting Monday will likely engineer little except a brief euro rally before another plunge. The road to fiscal compact is long and weary, even if repeated top-level mention brings momentary relief to the single currency. I see Greek, Italian, Spanish and (yes) French debt exploding long before a political union can emerge with Germany at its centre. And news of the likes of HSBC and Barclays simulating post-euro trading environment will push euro-specific investor sentiment further south. Do not commit to euro trading unless it’s a big, pronounced short!

Europe’s choked credit markets and imminent recession deliver an ironic kiss of death to China’s growth machine, which exports approximately a trillion dollars’ worth to US, EU and Japan. Beijing’s monetary tightening that was just beginning to trim bank loan growth, now appears mistimed. This should pile pressure on all things commodity, especially oil and copper. That much of Asia’s trade is re-routed via Chinese value addition export platforms implies Asia’s emerging economies will lead no international bottoming out this year.

What might happen to Asia, EU and also the US in case of an oil shock in the Gulf is something financial markets have strangely avoided pricing in so far. Talk of Saudis filling any supply glut for long is about as believable as the EU suddenly self-correcting its sovereign nightmare and the US continuing to grow in case Greece and Co ditch the single currency. Riyadh lost leverage with excess oil the moment Arab Spring tendencies snow-balled into its oil-rich, shia-dominated eastern provinces. Subsequent $130 odd billion face saving measures pushed up its support price to the $90 per barrel range, placing it in the Iran-Venezuela league within opec. Make no mistake. (Ifand) when gulf oil tension jacks up black gold, Asia stops, EU is history and US is flat for the foreseeable future.

It seems ’11 was a year of reaction to crises. This one will be one of adaptation and posturing towards new long-term realities. An interesting early-year trading finding is euro suddenly decoupling from risk trade. With risk appetite ignited by US data failing to bolster the euro, it seems a new ’12 theme has emerged. Failing a game-changer, stay short euro. And as long China is wrong-footed, use rallies to short the aussie. Trading is often too violent for a confident all-in when oil and war swing international economies, and therefore currency markets.

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY Weekly Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair dropped last week to its lowest level in two weeks, while it managed to rise before the week end, where investors’ confidence controlled the market sentiment which drove currencies to fluctuate.

The US dollar returned to dominate the FX market after it witnessed some weakness with the beginning of 2012, as investors’ soon realized that the EU debt crisis still a big threat to the global economy.

The greenback also gets supported from the better than expected U.S. data regarding the manufacturing sector, which increased signs of recovery for the global demand.

Expectations refer for further drop for the higher yielding currencies, which will increase demand for the safer assets such as the dollar and the yen.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen also get benefit from the current risk aversion in the financial market, as it soared to its highest level in eleven years against the euro.

The USD/JPY pair‘s movements will depend on the next move from the BOJ, or the dollar performance against other majors in case the BOJ kept its monetary policy unchanged.

Major highlights for this week that will affect the USD/JPY pair’s trading:

Monday January 09:

On Monday at 20:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the Consumer Credit for November, where it’s expected to come at $7.00 billion from the prior reading of $7.645 billion.

Tuesday December 10:

On Tuesday at 15:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the Wholesale Inventories for November, where the previous reading was up by 1.6% and it’s expected to retreat to 0.4%.

Wednesday December 11:

On Wednesday at 05:00 GMT, Japan will release the Coincident Index for November, where the preliminary reading is expected to come at 90.3 from the prior 91.4.

On the other hand, the Japanese Leading Index for November is expected to show a preliminary reading of 92.9 from the prior reading of 92.0.

The U.S. economy will issue the MBA Mortgage Applications at 12:00 GMT, which had a prior reading of – 4.10%.

Thursday December 12:

On Thursday at 23:50 GMT (Wednesday), the Japanese economy will issue the Current Account Total for November, where the expectations refer to a surplus of 246.8 billion yen from the prior surplus of 562.4 billion yen.

The Adjusted Current Account Total for November is expected to show a surplus of 446.0 billion yen from the prior reading of 518.6 billion yen. While the Trade Balance is expected to show a deficit of 599.4 billion yen, from the previous deficit of 206.1 billion yen.

At 05:00 GMT, Japan will issue Eco Watchers Survey: Current for December which had a prior reading of 45, as for the Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook it had a previous reading of 44.7.

The U.S. economy will release the Advance Retail Sales for December at 13:30 GMT, where the expectations refer to 0.2% the same as the previous reading. The Retail Sales Less Autos is expected to rise to 0.3% from the prior 0.2%.

At 13:30 GMT, U.S. economy will issue its weekly initial claims numbers, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased 372 thousand last week.

The U.S. Business Inventories for November will be issued at 15:00 GMT, with a previous reading of 0.8% and the expectations refer to 0.4%. While the Monthly Budget Statement for December will be released at 19:00 GMT, and it’s expected to show a deficit of 79.0 billion.

Friday December 13:

On Friday at 13:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the Import Price Index for December, where it’s expected to drop to 0.1% from the prior reading of 0.7%, while the annual reading had a previous reading of 9.9%.

The U.S. Trade Balance will be up at 13:30 GMT, where it’s expected to show a deficit of $45.0 billion from the prior deficit of $43.5 billion.

At 14:55 GMT, the University of Michigan Confidence for January will be up, where it had a prior reading of 69.9 and it’s expected to up to 70.3.

USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CHF continued its upside trend in the week ended Jan. 6 as the dollar took advantage of the safety demand amid the undergoing concerns from the euro area.

Last week, concerns aggravated in the euro area, overshadowing the improvement in the U.S. data. Fundamentals from the euro area showed contraction in manufacturing and services for the fourth month and drop in confidence to two-year low while the main cue was the decline in demand on German bonds and rise in French bills yield at auctions.

This week, the main focus will be unemployment and retail sales data from Switzerland while the U.S. will release retail, trade and confidence, as well as other data.

However, the pair is expected to be more impacted by the general sentiment in the market which is tracking the latest updates from the euro area as Italy and Spain prepares to sell debt.

For this week, the release of the data will be as follows:

Monday Jan. 9:

As of 06:45 GMT, the Swiss economy will release the only data for the week which is unemployment for the month of Dec. followed by retail sales, specifically at 08:15 GMT, for the same month, while the United States lacks fundamentals.

Tuesday Jan. 10:

The U.S. economy will release less important data, including wholesale inventories as of 15:00 GMT.

Wednesday Jan. 11:

The U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications for Jan. 6 at 12:00 GMT followed by Fed’s Beige Book at 19:00 GMT.

Thursday Jan. 12:

As of 13:30 GMT, the U.S economy will release a lot of fundamentals; retail sales, due at 13:30 GMT, are expected advance 0.2% in Dec. from the prior 0.2% rise.

At the same time, initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 7 and continuing claims for the week ended Dec. 31 will be available. At 19:00 GMT, the monthly budget statement for Oct. is predicted to show a deficit of $79.0 billions.

Friday Jan. 13:

The weekends with the release of trade balance at 13:30 GMT, where expectations refer to a widened deficit to $44.9 billion in Nov. from $43.5 billion deficit a month earlier. U.S. University of Michigan confidence, which is due at 14:55 GMT, is estimated to increase to 70.4 in Jan. compared with the prior reading of 69.9.

NZD/USD Weekly Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

NZD/USD Weekly Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
NZD/USD Weekly Forecast Jan. 09-13, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The NZD/USD pair dropped last week from its highest level in two months, where the greenback was able to cover most of its previous losses against other majors and it recorded gains against the European currencies.

The New Zealand economy did not release any fundamentals last week, which drove the Kiwi to move depends on the current market sentiment causing a big fluctuation in the pair’s movements.

On the Other hand, the US dollar gets supported from the better than expected data regarding the manufacturing sector in U.S., in addition to the strong performance for the Indian economy and the Chinese manufacturing sector which could support the global demand.

The NZD/USD pair could witness further losses since risk aversion returned to control the market sentiment, besides the strong performance from the greenback against the European currencies amid the ongoing EU debt crisis.

Major highlights for this week that will burden the NZD/USD pair’s trading:

Monday January 09:

On Monday at 21:45 GMT (Sunday), New Zealand will issue Trade Balance for November, where it’s expected to show a deficit of 289 million from the previous deficit of 282 million.

The Exports for November is expected to come at 3.90 billion from 3.88, while the Imports are expected to come at 4.18 billion from the previous reading of 4.16 billion.

As for the New Zealand Trade Balance for November, it will be up at 21:45 GMT, where it showed a previous surplus of 627 and it’s expected to come at 577.

On Monday at 20:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the Consumer Credit for November, where it’s expected to come at $7.00 billion from the prior reading of $7.645 billion.

Tuesday December 10:

On Tuesday at 21:45 GMT (Monday), the New Zealand economy will release the Building Permits for November, where it’s expected to come at 3.0% from the prior reading of 11.2%.

At 23:00 GMT QV House Prices will be up about the New Zealand economy, where the prior reading was 1.7%.

On Tuesday at 15:00 GMT, the U.S.economy will issue the Wholesale Inventories for November, where the previous reading was up by 1.6% and it’s expected to retreat to 0.4%.

Wednesday December 11:

On Wednesday, the U.S. economy will issue the MBA Mortgage Applications at 12:00 GMT, which had a prior reading of – 4.10%.

Thursday December 12:

On Thursday at 00:00 GMT, The New Zealand economy will issue ANZ Commodity Price for December, where the previous reading was down by 1.0%.

The U.S. economy will release the Advance Retail Sales for December at 13:30 GMT, where the expectations refer to 0.2% the same as the previous reading. The Retail Sales Less Autos is expected to rise to 0.3% from the prior 0.2%.

At 13:30 GMT, U.S. economy will issue its weekly initial claims numbers, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased 372 thousand last week.

The U.S. Business Inventories for November will be issued at 15:00 GMT, with a previous reading of 0.8% and the expectations refer to 0.4%. While the Monthly Budget Statement for December will be released at 19:00 GMT, and it’s expected to show a deficit of 79.0 billion.

Friday December 13:

On Friday at 13:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the Import Price Index for December, where it’s expected to drop to 0.1% from the prior reading of 0.7%, while the annual reading had a previous reading of 9.9%.

The U.S. Trade Balance will be up at 13:30 GMT, where it’s expected to show a deficit of $45.0 billion from the prior deficit of $43.5 billion.
 
At 14:55 GMT, the University of Michigan Confidence for January will be up, where it had a prior reading of 69.9 and it’s expected to up to 70.3.