EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The Sterling gathered strength against the euro early on today but could not sustain, with focus remaining on whether Greece will have enough voluntary participation in its bond swap to avoid steps that could be labeled a default. The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8350 up from 0.8344 Anxieties surrounding the Greek debt restructure gripped global markets. Private investors have until Thursday to participate in a bond swap with the Greek government, which is necessary for the debt-stricken nation to secure its second round of bailout funds and avert a disorderly default. Towards the end of the markets, there seemed to be a positive sentiment coming from bond holders.

Banks’ use of the ECB overnight deposit facility came off from Monday’s record high but remained elevated, reflecting the vast amount of excess liquidity present in the banking system in the wake of the ECB’s longest-ever loans and the approaching end of the reserve period.

Banks deposited EUR816.759 billion with the ECB, the ECB said Wednesday, down slightly from Tuesday’s all-time record of EUR827.534 billion.

The Spanish government Tuesday night said the country’s regions were committed to meeting new budget-cutting targets.

Italian and Spanish government bonds rebounded Wednesday as worries about the fate of Greece’s private-sector bond swap and the potential for a messy default eased, sending yields lower. Italy’s 10-year government bond yield fell 0.09 percentage point to 4.98%. Yields move inversely to prices and a basis point is 1/100 of a percentage point.

Yields on 10-year Spanish government bonds were 2 basis points higher at 5.14%.

Australia’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.4% against economists’ expectations of a 0.8% gain

In the US, the ADP payroll report showed a 216,000 increase up from a revised 173,000 jobs added in January, and topped the 208,000 new jobs economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had been expecting. Conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace and are consistent with other indicators suggesting some firming of the labor market. This pick-up is consistent with the recent acceleration of the nation’s gross domestic product which, in the fourth quarter.

 

March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

Mar. 07

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 

1.20%

 

 

 

1.40% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

MYR

 

 

 

Malaysian Trade Balance 

8.75B

 

8.20B 

 

8.31B 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Leading Index 

94.9

 

95.1 

 

93.8 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) 

-4.2%

 

-4.0% 

 

-3.5% 

   

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese Trade Balance 

2.83B

 

1.10B 

 

0.42B 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 5-Year Bobls Auction 

0.790%

 

 

 

0.910% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-2.7%

 

0.6% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

 

CLP

 

 

 

Chilean Trade Balance 

 

 

1.00B 

 

1.98B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications  

-1.2%

 

 

 

-0.3%

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)

06:30     EUR       French Non-Farm Payrolls            -0.1%                    -0.2%    

French Non-farm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.

08:15     CHF       CPI (MoM)                                          0.2%                      -0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                            

12:00     GBP      Interest Rate Decision                   0.50%                   0.50%

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                             

12:45     EUR        Interest Rate Decision                  1.00%                   1.00%

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                      

 13:15    CAD      Housing Starts                                    199K                      198K       

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.   

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                      350K                     351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims            3385K                 3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

14:00     CAD      Interest Rate Decision                   1.00%                    1.00%                   

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5740 up from the opening of 1.5716. The Sterling seems to have benefited from  negativity in Europe. In the US the ADP Payroll report showed a 216,000 increase from a revised 173,000 jobs added in January, and topped the 208,000 new jobs economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had been expecting. Conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace and are consistent with other indicators suggesting some firming of the labor market. This pick-up is consistent with the recent acceleration of the nation’s gross domestic product which, in the fourth quarter.

This news should have been enough to give the USD some buoyancy, but it has not been able to overcome the pound.

Banks’ use of the ECB overnight deposit facility came off from Monday’s record high but remained elevated, reflecting the vast amount of excess liquidity present in the banking system in the wake of the ECB’s longest-ever loans and the approaching end of the reserve period.

Banks deposited EUR816.759 billion with the ECB, the ECB said Wednesday, down slightly from Tuesday’s all-time record of EUR827.534 billion.

The Spanish government Tuesday night said the country’s regions were committed to meeting new budget-cutting targets.

Italian and Spanish government bonds rebounded Wednesday as worries about the fate of Greece’s private-sector bond swap and the potential for a messy default eased, sending yields lower. Italy’s 10-year government bond yield fell 0.09 percentage point to 4.98%. Yields move inversely to prices and a basis point is 1/100 of a percentage point.

Yields on 10-year Spanish government bonds were 2 basis points higher at 5.14%.

Anxieties surrounding the Greek debt restructure gripped global markets. Private investors have until Thursday to participate in a bond swap with the Greek government, which is necessary for the debt-stricken nation to secure its second round of bailout funds and avert a disorderly default.

Australia’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.4% against economists’ expectations of a 0.8% gain

 

March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

Mar. 07

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 

1.20%

 

 

 

1.40% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

MYR

 

 

 

Malaysian Trade Balance 

8.75B

 

8.20B 

 

8.31B 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Leading Index 

94.9

 

95.1 

 

93.8 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) 

-4.2%

 

-4.0% 

 

-3.5% 

   

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese Trade Balance 

2.83B

 

1.10B 

 

0.42B 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 5-Year Bobls Auction 

0.790%

 

 

 

0.910% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-2.7%

 

0.6% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

 

CLP

 

 

 

Chilean Trade Balance 

 

 

1.00B 

 

1.98B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications  

-1.2%

 

 

 

-0.3%

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)

06:30     EUR       French Non-Farm Payrolls            -0.1%                    -0.2%    

French Non-farm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.

08:15     CHF       CPI (MoM)                                          0.2%                      -0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                            

12:00     GBP      Interest Rate Decision                   0.50%                   0.50%

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                             

12:45     EUR        Interest Rate Decision                  1.00%                   1.00%

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                      

 13:15    CAD      Housing Starts                                    199K                      198K       

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.   

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                      350K                     351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims            3385K                 3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

14:00     CAD      Interest Rate Decision                   1.00%                    1.00%                   

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/USD  gathered strength against the USD late in the day with focus remaining on whether Greece will have enough voluntary participation in its bond swap to avoid steps that could be labeled a default. The euro traded at $1.3138 slightly up from $1.3111. Anxieties surrounding the Greek debt restructure gripped global markets. Private investors have until Thursday to participate in a bond swap with the Greek government, which is necessary for the debt-stricken nation to secure its second round of bailout funds and avert a disorderly default.

In the US the ADP Payroll report showed a 216,000 increase from a revised 173,000 jobs added in January, and topped the 208,000 new jobs economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had been expecting. Conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace and are consistent with other indicators suggesting some firming of the labor market. This pick-up is consistent with the recent acceleration of the nation’s gross domestic product which, in the fourth quarter.

Banks’ use of the ECB overnight deposit facility came off from Monday’s record high but remained elevated, reflecting the vast amount of excess liquidity present in the banking system in the wake of the ECB’s longest-ever loans and the approaching end of the reserve period.

Banks deposited EUR816.759 billion with the ECB, the ECB said Wednesday, down slightly from Tuesday’s all-time record of EUR827.534 billion.

The Spanish government Tuesday night said the country’s regions were committed to meeting new budget-cutting targets.

Italian and Spanish government bonds rebounded Wednesday as worries about the fate of Greece’s private-sector bond swap and the potential for a messy default eased, sending yields lower. Italy’s 10-year government bond yield fell 0.09 percentage point to 4.98%. Yields move inversely to prices and a basis point is 1/100 of a percentage point.

Yields on 10-year Spanish government bonds were 2 basis points higher at 5.14%.

Australia’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.4% against economists’ expectations of a 0.8% gain

 

March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

Mar. 07

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 

1.20%

 

 

 

1.40% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

MYR

 

 

 

Malaysian Trade Balance 

8.75B

 

8.20B 

 

8.31B 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Leading Index 

94.9

 

95.1 

 

93.8 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) 

-4.2%

 

-4.0% 

 

-3.5% 

   

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese Trade Balance 

2.83B

 

1.10B 

 

0.42B 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 5-Year Bobls Auction 

0.790%

 

 

 

0.910% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-2.7%

 

0.6% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

 

CLP

 

 

 

Chilean Trade Balance 

 

 

1.00B 

 

1.98B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications  

-1.2%

 

 

 

-0.3%

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)

06:30     EUR       French Non-Farm Payrolls            -0.1%                    -0.2%    

French Non-farm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.

08:15     CHF       CPI (MoM)                                          0.2%                      -0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                            

12:00     GBP      Interest Rate Decision                   0.50%                   0.50%

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                             

12:45     EUR        Interest Rate Decision                  1.00%                   1.00%

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                      

 13:15    CAD      Housing Starts                                    199K                      198K       

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.   

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                      350K                     351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims            3385K                 3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

14:00     CAD      Interest Rate Decision                   1.00%                    1.00%                   

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY is trading at 80.77 after hitting a high earlier of 80.94 and then settling as investors were reassured over Greece.

The Yen benefited as a safe haven escape as worries that Greece was still at risk of a pushed investors to move from risky assets. Doubts about the success of the Greek debt-swap deal on Thursday have risen with only 20 per cent of private creditors so far agreeing to the deal. The Greek government has set a 75 per cent participation rate as a threshold for proceeding with the transaction.

There is an immense amount of risk surrounding this scenario if it doesn’t go according to plan there will be huge risk aversion taking place – which might push the Yen even higher..

Greece and the IIF seem to have calmed the markets by assuring publicly that everything was on track late in the day as pressure seemed to ease of and the investors moved back out of the yen.

The statements over the weekend by the Chinese Premier, reducing growth estimates for 2012 is having a reverberating effect the entire pacific.

 

March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

AUD

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8%

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)

00:30     AUD       Employment Change                                     5.0K                       46.3K                    

 00:30    AUD       Unemployment Rate                                     5.2%                      5.1%

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending. The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.                          

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    350K                      351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims                           3385K                    3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)

NZD/USD  is currently holding at 0.8175 having opened at 0.8124, after being weighed down all day, worries over Greece seemed to subside and the kiwi was able to end the day trading up.

Pressure on the kiwi was compounded by worries that Greece is still at risk of a default pushed the USD up against its trading partners. Doubts about the success of the Greek debt-swap deal on Thursday have risen with only 20 per cent of private creditors so far agreeing to the deal. The Greek government has set a 75 per cent participation rate as a threshold for proceeding with the transaction.

There is an immense amount of risk surrounding this scenario If it doesn’t go according to plan there will be huge risk aversion taking place – the New Zealand and Australian dollars will be slammed.

Greece and the IIF seem to have calmed the markets by assuring publicly that everything was on track.

The statements over the weekend by the Chinese Premier, reducing growth estimates for 2012 is having a reverberating effect on both the Aussie and the kiwi.

 

March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

AUD

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8%

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)

00:30     AUD       Employment Change                                     5.0K                       46.3K                    

 00:30    AUD       Unemployment Rate                                      5.2%                      5.1%

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending. The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.                          

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    350K                      351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims                        3385K                    3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

AUD/USD was trading at 1.0558, towards the end of the asian trading day it seems that the aussie is making a slight comeback.

Australia’s gross domestic product grew 0.4% in the fourth quarter, far below expectations for a 0.7% gain.  Weight on the Aussie was compounded by worries that Greece is still at risk of a default pushed the USD up against its trading partners. Doubts about the success of the Greek debt-swap deal on Thursday have risen with only 20 per cent of private creditors so far agreeing to the deal. The Greek government has set a 75 per cent participation rate as a threshold for proceeding with the transaction.

There is an immense amount of risk surrounding this scenario If it doesn’t go according to plan there will be huge risk aversion taking place – the New Zealand and Australian dollars will be slammed.

Greece and the IIF seem to have calmed the markets by assuring publicly that everything was on track.

The statements over the weekend by the Chinese Premier, reducing growth estimates for 2012 is having a reverberating effect on both the Aussie and the kiwi.

March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

AUD

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8%

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)

00:30     AUD       Employment Change                                     5.0K                       46.3K                    

 00:30    AUD       Unemployment Rate                                     5.2%                      5.1%

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending. The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.                          

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    350K                      351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims                        3385K                    3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continues to fall, trading at 1.0484 down 1.88. As Mideast tensions seem to ease and the supply disruption seems too passed, with OPEC nations replacing the losses from Iran, the geopolitical pressures pushing crude to the highs are reducing. Investors are now taking time to look into the economic situation in Europe and are beginning to worry about slow down of any economic recovery. With China reducing growth estimates, the demand for oil is lessening. Compound this with worries about the Greek PSI bond swap deadline and the effects of a default or “credit event” the markets are not finding crude oil appealing.  Investors are waiting for the EIA inventory due on Wednesday.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment                        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.349, opening at 2.352, market talk pushed NG up a bit in mid day trading and buyers were trying to pick up a bargain, with prices plunging so quickly. Natural gas prices lost 5.2% on Monday to settle at USD2.348. But prices regained modest strength as traders covered short positions only to fall again later in the day. With 16 days left of winter, warmer than average weather and over stocks in inventory, Gas will continue to fall to the earlier low of 2.32 and sit tight.

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Gold Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold had fallen off a cliff, down over 34.00 in today’s session currently trading at 1670.45. Gold fell to a low not seen since early January, as investors worried about the deadline approaching for the Greek PSI bond swap. Rumors were flying all day most proved false, but the market still collapsed. Investors were once again running to the USD for safety, moving from the precious metal to the greenback. Also worries about the overall economic climate in the eurozone began to unnerve traders, most was overshadowed for the past few weeks with Greece in the center ring. Gold had been too inflated after ballooning up so quickly. The euro continued to drop today against all of its trading partners.

The next two to three days will give a much clearer picture once the March 8th deadline has passed and the ECB rate decision and several days of jobs reports coming from the US.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment                        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is swapping at 1.0015 as the greenback gained strength on weakness in Europe. The Canadian PMI released this Tuesday afternoon surprised economists coming in well above forecast, but not enough to push the CAD over the USD.  The USD was supported by worries throughout the eurozone over an overall downturn in the economy and investors were spooked as the deadline for the Greek PSI bond swap grew near, rumors were flying everywhere, all turning out to be false but still worrisome to investors.

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer.

EU’s Rehn: Eurozone Currently in a Mild Recession but Signs of Improvement but, risk of credit crunch in European economy has been prevented largely due to long-term liquidity offer of ECB. The Commission supports combining remaining resources of EFSF with ESM to make sturdier European firewall.

Eurozone GDP tallied at forecast. Nothing worth noting in today’s release.

 

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment                        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at exchanging at 0.9125, as the greenback mounted strength all day. As worries over the Greek Bond Swap bothered investors and a dismal feeling prevailed in the eurozone with worries over growth and economic downturns, investors sought the USD.

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer.

EU’s Rehn: Eurozone Currently in a Mild Recession but Signs of Improvement but, risk of credit crunch in European economy has been prevented largely due to long-term liquidity offer of ECB. The Commission supports combining remaining resources of EFSF with ESM to make sturdier European firewall.

Eurozone GDP tallied at forecast. Nothing worth noting in today’s release.

 

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

06:45     CHF        Unemployment Rate                                     3.1%                      3.1%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.               

11:00     EUR       German Factory Orders (MoM)                 0.6%                      1.7%

German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment                        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                                2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                                     -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                                -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14 Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2051, having opened close to the high of the day of 1.2061, the euro fell against the Swissie for most of the day. Earlier in the day, rumor were flying about problems with Greek PSI bond swaps, the rumors were quickly squashed.

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer.

EU’s Rehn: Eurozone Currently in a Mild Recession but Signs of Improvement but, risk of credit crunch in European economy has been prevented largely due to long-term liquidity offer of ECB. The Commission supports combining remaining resources of EFSF with ESM to make sturdier European firewall.

Eurozone GDP tallied at forecast. Nothing worth noting in today’s release.

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

06:45     CHF        Unemployment Rate                                     3.1%                      3.1%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.               

11:00     EUR       German Factory Orders (MoM)                 0.6%                      1.7%

German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment                        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                                2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                                     -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                                -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The pair EUR/GBP  is currently trading at 0.8348, the pair peaked mid day hitting a high of .08351 before collapsing and falling to 0.8322. In afternoon trading the euro was able to pick back some strength, after false rumors over the Greek PSI bond swap were dropped.

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer.

EU’s Rehn: Eurozone Currently in a Mild Recession but Signs of Improvement but, risk of credit crunch in European economy has been prevented largely due to long-term liquidity offer of ECB. The Commission supports combining remaining resources of EFSF with ESM to make sturdier European firewall.

Eurozone GDP tallied at forecast. Nothing worth noting in today’s release.

In the UK, house prices fell by 0.5% in February from January and were down 1.9% in the three months to February from the same period a year ago, according to the Halifax House Price Index. Prices were down 1.1% in the latest three months to February from the previous 3-month period.

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

06:45     CHF        Unemployment Rate                                     3.1%                      3.1%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.               

11:00     EUR       German Factory Orders (MoM)                 0.6%                      1.7%

German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment                        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                                2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                                     -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                                -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD opened the day at 1.5866 and has given way to the USD throughout the day. The Sterling is currently available at 1.5714. Housing prices continued to fall in the UK, as European markets continued to decline as many worries about the deadline approaching for the Greek PSI bond swap.

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer.

EU’s Rehn: Eurozone Currently in a Mild Recession but Signs of Improvement but, risk of credit crunch in European economy has been prevented largely due to long-term liquidity offer of ECB. The Commission supports combining remaining resources of EFSF with ESM to make sturdier European firewall.

Eurozone GDP tallied at forecast. Nothing worth noting in today’s release.

In the UK, house prices fell by 0.5% in February from January and were down 1.9% in the three months to February from the same period a year ago, according to the Halifax House Price Index. Prices were down 1.1% in the latest three months to February from the previous 3-month period.

 

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

06:45     CHF        Unemployment Rate                                     3.1%                      3.1%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.               

11:00     EUR       German Factory Orders (MoM)                 0.6%                      1.7%

German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment                        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                                2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                                     -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                                -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD has fallen most of the day, trading now at 1.3123 down from 1.3226. Investors were not able to shake off the dismal feeling about the overall eurozone recovery, with less of a distraction with Greece more or less settled, the markets have been able to turn back to take a look at the overall economy. Although today rumors stirred the markets over last minute problems with the Greek PSI swap, but the rumors were quickly turned off.

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer.

EU’s Rehn: Eurozone Currently in a Mild Recession but Signs of Improvement but, risk of credit crunch in European economy has been prevented largely due to long-term liquidity offer of ECB. The Commission supports combining remaining resources of EFSF with ESM to make sturdier European firewall.

Eurozone GDP tallied at forecast. Nothing worth noting in today’s release.

  

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

   

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

06:45     CHF        Unemployment Rate                                     3.1%                      3.1%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.               

11:00     EUR       German Factory Orders (MoM)                 0.6%                      1.7%

German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment                        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                                2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                                     -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                                -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

 Against  the USD/JPY , the dollar was trading at ¥81.41, falling from ¥81.81. Worries about the world economic growth and recovery disturbed investors in early trading.

Yesterday Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

In the Asian Session Tuesday, Crude-oil slipped, following falls across equity markets amid concerns about slowing global growth.

Oil had dipped in the US market to close below $107 a barrel but continued to be pressured by a mixed bag of economic data and China’s cut to its economic growth target. Dropping to 106.70

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key cash rate on hold at 4.25% Tuesday, as expected. RBA Governor Stevens said, “Recent information is consistent with the expectation that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, but does not suggest that a deep downturn is occurring. With growth expected to be close to trend and inflation close to target, the board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate for the moment.”

From the USA on Monday:  Only a dire situation would call for the Federal Reserve to buy more assets, and that is unlikely given the better-looking economic data, a top central bank official said on Monday. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, an outspoken policy hawk, added that he was perplexed by Wall Street’s continued preoccupation with the possibility that the Fed could engage in a third round of large-scale buying of assets

The services sector expanded at its fastest pace in a year in February helped by a gain in new orders and as the housing market shows signs of stabilizing. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.3 in February last month from 56.8 in January, in sharp contrast to economists’ expectations for a drop to 56.1. It was the index’s highest level since February 2011. 

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.6B 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD       GDP (QoQ)                                     0.7%                      1.0%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                           

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment        205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                                        -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                                 -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

 The AUD/USD  has fallen after Australia’s central bank decided to leave the cash rate on hold. The AUD finished Monday’s local session at 1.0619 US cents.

The AUD fell against the greenback as China cut its growth target to the lowest level since 2005, sapping demand for growth-linked assets including the Australian Dollar.

On Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key cash rate on hold at 4.25% Tuesday, as expected. RBA Governor Stevens said, “Recent information is consistent with the expectation that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, but does not suggest that a deep downturn is occurring. With growth expected to be close to trend and inflation close to target, the board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate for the moment.”

From the USA on Monday:  Only a dire situation would call for the Federal Reserve to buy more assets, and that is unlikely given the better-looking economic data, a top central bank official said on Monday. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, an outspoken policy hawk, added that he was perplexed by Wall Street’s continued preoccupation with the possibility that the Fed could engage in a third round of large-scale buying of assets

The services sector expanded at its fastest pace in a year in February helped by a gain in new orders and as the housing market shows signs of stabilizing. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.3 in February last month from 56.8 in January, in sharp contrast to economists’ expectations for a drop to 56.1. It was the index’s highest level since February 2011. 

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer

Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

In the Asian Session Tuesday, Crude-oil slipped, following falls across equity markets amid concerns about slowing global growth.

Oil had dipped in the US market to close below $107 a barrel but continued to be pressured by a mixed bag of economic data and China’s cut to its economic growth target. Dropping to 106.70

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.6B 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

 

Economic Events:  (GMT)

00:30     AUD       GDP (QoQ)                                         0.7%                      1.0%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                           

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment         205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)      0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)             1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                 2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                     -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)               -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)

 The NZD/USD  fell against the greenback as China cut its growth target to the lowest level since 2005, sapping demand for growth-linked assets including the kiwi. The New Zealand dollar fell to .8147 cents from 0.8206 cents after manufacturing and services in the euro zone contracted more than expected.

Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key cash rate on hold at 4.25% Tuesday, as expected. RBA Governor Stevens said, “Recent information is consistent with the expectation that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, but does not suggest that a deep downturn is occurring. With growth expected to be close to trend and inflation close to target, the board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate for the moment.”

From the USA on Monday:  Only a dire situation would call for the Federal Reserve to buy more assets, and that is unlikely given the better-looking economic data, a top central bank official said on Monday. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, an outspoken policy hawk, added that he was perplexed by Wall Street’s continued preoccupation with the possibility that the Fed could engage in a third round of large-scale buying of assets

The services sector expanded at its fastest pace in a year in February helped by a gain in new orders and as the housing market shows signs of stabilizing. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.3 in February last month from 56.8 in January, in sharp contrast to economists’ expectations for a drop to 56.1. It was the index’s highest level since February 2011. 

Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer

Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduces growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.

In the Asian Session Tuesday, Crude-oil slipped, following falls across equity markets amid concerns about slowing global growth.

Oil had dipped in the US market to close below $107 a barrel but continued to be pressured by a mixed bag of economic data and China’s cut to its economic growth target. Dropping to 106.70

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.6B 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 
                         

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD       GDP (QoQ)                                         0.7%                      1.0%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                           

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment          205K                      170K                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)       0.8%                      0.7%                     

 13:30    USD       Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)              1.2%                      1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

20:00     NZD      Interest Rate Decision                 2.50%                    2.50%                   

 20:00    NZD      RBNZ Rate Statement                                                                                                  

 20:00    NZD       RBNZ Monetary Statement          

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.           

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.                                                        

 23:50    JPY        GDP (QoQ)                                      -0.2%                     -0.6%                    

23:50     JPY        GDP Price Index (YoY)                 -1.6%                     -1.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is available at 106.78, opening today at 106.54. Oil slid around all day staying in a tight range as negative and positive news balanced each side off. The ongoing worries from Iran, matched the news from China, where Premier Wen Jiabao, in his annual state-of-the nation report to China’s parliament, reduce growth for 2012 of 7.5 percent. That would be the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 and well down on last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate. Lower growth, lower demand on oil. Continuing worries over the final Greek outcome continues to worry investors.

President Obama, in his strongest comments so far over the Iranian situation, came out and said directly that he would not hesitate to attack Iran before he would allow them to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  has dropped to 2.357 falling almost .05 today. Natural Gas, bottomed, falling as low as 2.352 opening at 2.401. NG has dropped from the high of 2.807 just two weeks ago. Natural Gas is right back where it started on February 1, 2012, when the markets started to inflate.

It is very rare that the FXEmpire team hits a home run, we usually make it to first base, often hit a groundball double, sometime a solid 3 bagger, but an out of the park homerun is unusual. Our overall goal is to provide our readers with accurate information and forecasts, without predicting the markets. The FXEmpire team analyzes data and fundamental information, so that our readers, that do trade have valuable non biased information. Over the past few weeks we have continued to review our analysis and have predicted that Natural Gas will plummet seeking a bottom in the 2.36 range. Since February 29th, we have been forewarning our readers that this drop was coming, We have been continuously informed our visitors that there were no real reasons to support the upswing in Natural Gas and as it climbed near the 2.80 level, our team published an article saying that this was crazy. So every now and then, it is nice to be able to brag and say we called this one right.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY