Gold Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold dropped to 1704.25  just ahead of the 100 day MA which sits at 1694 and should hold some technical support., extending a selloff started in the last week and continued in electronic trading over the weekend, following a weekly loss of 3.7%, as negative data from Europe, China and the U.S. weighed in.

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.3 in February from a reading of 56.8 the previous month. Economists had expected the index to decline to 56.1.

Another report showed that U.S. factory orders fell, but at a slower than forecast rate in January, declining by a seasonally adjusted 1.0%, compared to forecasts for a 1.3% slide.

Monday March 5, 2012 Economic Data Release actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

4.4%

 

2.0% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.8

 

55.0 

 

56.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

In Europe

Euro zone final composite PMI falls to final 49.3 in February

Italy services PMI 44.1 in February. Down from 44.8 in January and well below Reuter’s median forecast of 45.2.

Swiss January retail sales up +4.4% y/y.

Spanish services PMI 41.9 in February. Demonstrably lower than 46.1 in January and Reuter’s median forecast of 45.9.Eighth month of contraction, lowest read since November.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front. Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.

10:00     EUR       GDP (QoQ)                                         -0.3%                     -0.3%      

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     CAD      Ivey PMI                                             62.1                        64.1

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF is currently exchanging hands at 0.9122 down from the opening of .09146. The Swissie found a bit of strength today on in positive retail sales report exceeding forecasts, while the greenback exhibited some weakness with a poor showing on the ISM report and investor worries about the Greece PSI bond swap as the deadline date of March 8th quickly approaches. Tuesday is a quiet day on the economic sector, but addition worries from Greece or other eurozone crisis might effect this pair, otherwise expect them to hold here.

 

Monday March 5, 2012 Economic Data Release actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

4.4%

 

2.0% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.8

 

55.0 

 

56.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

Also today

In the US

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.3 in February from a reading of 56.8 the previous month. Economists had expected the index to decline to 56.1.

Another report showed that U.S. factory orders fell, but at a slower than forecast rate in January, declining by a seasonally adjusted 1.0%, compared to forecasts for a 1.3% slide.

In Europe

Euro zone final composite PMI falls to final 49.3 in February

Italy services PMI 44.1 in February. Down from 44.8 in January and well below Reuter’s median forecast of 45.2.

Swiss January retail sales up +4.4% y/y.

Spanish services PMI 41.9 in February. Demonstrably lower than 46.1 in January and Reuter’s median forecast of 45.9.Eighth month of contraction, lowest read since November.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front. Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.

10:00     EUR       GDP (QoQ)                                         -0.3%                     -0.3%      

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     CAD      Ivey PMI                                             62.1                        64.1

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF opened today at 1.2064 and is trading at 1.2059, staying within a very tight range today. Swiss retail sales were released today showing a jump in year to year figures, but that was matched by the eurozone retail release also showing upward numbers. The pair are expected to remain within this range for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Although the euro should pick up some strength as we get close to the March 8th deadline for Greece to avoid default. Once that is locked down investors will be less worried.

 

Monday March 5, 2012 Economic Data Release actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

4.4%

 

2.0% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.8

 

55.0 

 

56.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

Also today In Europe

Euro zone final composite PMI falls to final 49.3 in February

Italy services PMI 44.1 in February. Down from 44.8 in January and well below Reuter’s median forecast of 45.2.

Swiss January retail sales up +4.4% y/y.

Spanish services PMI 41.9 in February. Demonstrably lower than 46.1 in January and Reuter’s median forecast of 45.9.Eighth month of contraction, lowest read since November.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front. Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.

10:00     EUR       GDP (QoQ)                                         -0.3%                     -0.3%      

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     CAD      Ivey PMI                                             62.1                        64.1

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The pair EUR/GBP  is currently just about at the same as the opening trading at 0.8336 holding in a tight range between .08326 and .08353. The negatives and positives in the eurozone and the UK seemed to balance against each other as the day moved on, staying in a very small trading pattern. The pair should also remain pretty constant on Tuesday as there is very little in economic data, except the worries of investors as the deadline for the Greek PSI bond swap grows near. Moving to Wednesday, the economic calendar will get busier and also the March 8th deadline for Greece to complete all of its final issues in time to avoid default.

 Monday March 5, 2012 Economic Data Release actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

4.4%

 

2.0% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.8

 

55.0 

 

56.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

   


In Europe

Euro zone final composite PMI falls to final 49.3 in February

Italy services PMI 44.1 in February. Down from 44.8 in January and well below Reuter’s median forecast of 45.2.

Swiss January retail sales up +4.4% y/y.

Spanish services PMI 41.9 in February. Demonstrably lower than 46.1 in January and Reuter’s median forecast of 45.9.Eighth month of contraction, lowest read since November.

In the UK

 UK services sector saw growth slow in February after the surge in January, the CIPS/Markit index shows. The headline service sector CIPS/Markit index fell to 53.8 in February from an unrevised 56.0 in January, well below analysts’ median forecast for a 55.0 outturn. The detail, however, was more encouraging showing a rise in business expectations and easing inflation pressure.

Business expectations rose to their highest level for a year while output charges declined. Markit said sales were supported by discounting, with margins squeezed as input cost continued to rise.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front.  Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.

10:00     EUR       GDP (QoQ)                                         -0.3%                     -0.3%      

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     CAD      Ivey PMI                                             62.1                        64.1

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently holding at 1.5860 benefiting from the weakness in the USD. The Sterling hit a high today of 1.5877.  There were two economic releases in the UK today that took the shine off the Sterling allowing the greenback to recapture a bit.

 UK services sector saw growth slow in February after the surge in January, the CIPS/Markit index shows.

 Business expectations rose to their highest level for a year while output charges declined. Markit said sales were supported by discounting, with margins squeezed as input cost continued to rise.

 

Monday March 5, 2012 Economic Data Release actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

4.4%

 

2.0% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.8

 

55.0 

 

56.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

Also today

In the US

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.3 in February from a reading of 56.8 the previous month. Economists had expected the index to decline to 56.1.

Another report showed that U.S. factory orders fell, but at a slower than forecast rate in January, declining by a seasonally adjusted 1.0%, compared to forecasts for a 1.3% slide.

In Europe

Euro zone final composite PMI falls to final 49.3 in February

Italy services PMI 44.1 in February. Down from 44.8 in January and well below Reuter’s median forecast of 45.2.

Swiss January retail sales up +4.4% y/y.

Spanish services PMI 41.9 in February. Demonstrably lower than 46.1 in January and Reuter’s median forecast of 45.9.Eighth month of contraction, lowest read since November.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front.  Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.

10:00     EUR       GDP (QoQ)                                         -0.3%                     -0.3%      

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     CAD      Ivey PMI                                             62.1                        64.1

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is currently at 0.9941 as the USD exhibited some weakness over worries stemming from the ISM release, investor were becoming apprehensive as the March 8th deadline for the Greek PSI bond swap, which is not fully completed. There was little else of economic important effecting the markets today.

 

 

Monday March 5, 2012 Economic Data Release actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

4.4%

 

2.0% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.8

 

55.0 

 

56.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

Also today

In the US

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.3 in February from a reading of 56.8 the previous month. Economists had expected the index to decline to 56.1.

Another report showed that U.S. factory orders fell, but at a slower than forecast rate in January, declining by a seasonally adjusted 1.0%, compared to forecasts for a 1.3% slide.

In Europe

Euro zone final composite PMI falls to final 49.3 in February

Italy services PMI 44.1 in February. Down from 44.8 in January and well below Reuter’s median forecast of 45.2.

Swiss January retail sales up +4.4% y/y.

Spanish services PMI 41.9 in February. Demonstrably lower than 46.1 in January and Reuter’s median forecast of 45.9.Eighth month of contraction, lowest read since November.

In the UK

UK services sector saw growth slow in February after the surge in January, the CIPS/Markit index shows. The headline service sector CIPS/Markit index fell to 53.8 in February from an unrevised 56.0 in January, well below analysts’ median forecast for a 55.0 outturn. The detail, however, was more encouraging showing a rise in business expectations and easing inflation pressure.

Business expectations rose to their highest level for a year while output charges declined. Markit said sales were supported by discounting, with margins squeezed as input cost continued to rise.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front.  Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.

10:00     EUR       GDP (QoQ)                                         -0.3%                     -0.3%      

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     CAD      Ivey PMI                                             62.1                        64.1

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD climbed a bit today after dropping to 1.3166 over the weekend, trading at 1.3226 after hitting a high just a few days ago of 1.3479. The euro should find a home in the 1.31 range this week. For some reasons investors are once again spooked over the Greece PSI bond swap, which has a deadline of March 8th. In the US today the ISM reported a lackluster month, adding to the weakness of the USD.

 

Monday March 5, 2012 Economic Data Release actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

4.4%

 

2.0% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.8

 

55.0 

 

56.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

   


In Europe

Euro zone final composite PMI falls to final 49.3 in February

Italy services PMI 44.1 in February. Down from 44.8 in January and well below Reuter’s median forecast of 45.2.

Swiss January retail sales up +4.4% y/y.

Spanish services PMI 41.9 in February. Demonstrably lower than 46.1 in January and Reuter’s median forecast of 45.9.Eighth month of contraction, lowest read since November.

Today in the UK

UK services sector saw growth slow in February after the surge in January, the CIPS/Markit index shows. The headline service sector CIPS/Markit index fell to 53.8 in February from an unrevised 56.0 in January, well below analysts’ median forecast for a 55.0 outturn. The detail, however, was more encouraging showing a rise in business expectations and easing inflation pressure.

Business expectations rose to their highest level for a year while output charges declined. Markit said sales were supported by discounting, with margins squeezed as input cost continued to rise.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front. With little was due on Monday and virtually nothing on Tuesday. Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.

10:00     EUR       GDP (QoQ)                                         -0.3%                     -0.3%      

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     CAD      Ivey PMI                                             62.1                        64.1

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

AUD/USD was trading at the end of the session on Monday at 1.0716 down slightly from the opening. All Asian markets have been trading down today. There has been relatively little data over the weekend to affect the currency and Monday should also remain a quiet day, with the pair trading in a fairly tight range. Tuesday brings several economic reports in Oz along with the RBA statement, which could make a large impact on the value of the Aussie. Today there was some lackluster minor economic reports in Australia, that might be showing that the economy is not on as firm a ground as thought.

 

Economic Data Released on March 5, 2012

 

 

Mar. 05

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

-6.5%

 

0.3% 

 

4.7% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

3.30%

 

 

 

7.50% 

   

 

Economic Events:  (GMT)

Mar. 06

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)

NZD/USD  is trading at .8284 having opened this morning at 0.8306. Here just like with its cousins in Australia and Japan there is very little activity to move the currencies. There is virtually no economic reports due in the Asian countries and little in the US. If there are any moves it will be on perceived strength and weakness of the USD coming from the EU. The pair are expected to remain in this range until midweek.

 

 

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

Mar. 06

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis March 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY  opened the week trading at 81.77 and dropped a bit to end the trading day close to 81.61. The pair are expected to maintain this range with little economic data due in the US and Japan on Monday, there is little to move the pair. The only reaction will most likely be in response to the EUR/USD or USD weakness. The duo should open pretty close to where they are at present. On Tuesday there is also very little news, but Wednesday will bring several economic reports in Japan as well as employment reports in the US

 

Economic Events:  (GMT)

Mar. 06

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rules: The pair tends to break to an all-time low, and then range back to the previous low. The ranges are very distinct. A break to the upside will likely meet another previous low. Pair is reliable.

  • Global stability and global recovery will send USD/CHF higher
  • USD/CHF rallies on geopolitical instability

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

USD/CHF is climbing at 0.9140 as the USD gains momentum. As the week opened the USD was down against its trading partners, with the euro hitting short term record highs. Oil and Gold were climbing steadily. Midweek the barometer began to change with worries in the eurozone, the USD gained strength against all of its partners. Strong economic data as well as a drop in Oil and Gold allowed the Dollar to continue to grow. The Swissie simply held on for the ride.

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

News from the Eurozone

This week starts off with an agreement on the Greek bailout and approval from the EU, ECB and IMF. Greece passes a major hurdle and now needs to complete their agreement with the IIF.

There are worries about the CDS swaps triggering a credit event, at first, the initial ruling ruled that there would be no credit event, but it turns out that ruling was on a very small question concerning the ECB, it seems now that now that Greece has passed the new laws so they can force bondholders to accept the agreement, it will now trigger a credit event and CDS insurance will have to payout.

The ECB, liquidity operation, although successful, loans funds to over 800 banks, in excess of 500 billion euros. Markets are now worried about the consequences.

Spain reported that they will miss their budget deficit target this year, but still remain on track for 2013.

The EU approved the next tranche for Portugal.

The G20 meeting in Mexico ended without any results with non euro nations saying that the eurozone needs to pick up their game and show their money before any others would consider participating.

The EU Summit this past week went off quietly without much in the way of announcements.

Consumer confidence European Commission’s consumer confidence improved for a second straight month in February. Consumer confidence rose from -20.7 to -20.2, marginally weaker than expected (-20.1).

Industrial new orders  Euro zone industrial new orders rebounded by 1.9%  M/M in December, while only a moderate pick up was expected.

IFO business climate indicator The German IFO index rose for a fourth consecutive month in February. The indicator jumped from 108.3 to 109.6, while a more moderate increase was expected.

Manufacturing PMI Euro zone manufacturing PMI extended its rebound in February, rising for a third consecutive month, but at a  slower pace.  Services PMI After three consecutive increases, euro zone services PMI fell back in February, from 50.4 to 49.4, while a slight increase was expected.

In January, the euro zone unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The unemployment rate jumped from an upwardly revised 10.6% (earlier reported as 10.4%) to 10.7%, while the consensus was looking for stabilization at 10.4%. Eurostat estimates that the number of people unemployed rose by 185 000 in the euro area in January, to a total level of 16.925 million. The highest unemployment rates were observed in the Spain (23.3%), Greece (19.9% in November), Ireland and Portugal (both 14.8%). The youth unemployment rate (under 25) was 21.6% in the euro zone. The euro zone unemployment rate is now at the highest level since October 1997 and is just 0.2% below its all time high, suggesting that a jump above the all-time highs is not excluded in the coming months.

 

Historical

Highest: 1.1664 CHF on 07 Jun 2010.

Average: 0.9699 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 0.7224 CHF on 09 Aug 2011.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

Only Major Events:

Please refer to the daily forecasts for all economic data releases for each day, with details and forecast.

Mar. 07

13:15

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 08

12:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12:45

 

EUR

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 09

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st of the month global economic data releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

0.9%

 

2.1% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

3.9% 

 

14.6% 

   

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-14.8B

 

-11.0B 

 

-12.7B 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

47.3 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

 

50.2 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

50.1 

 

50.1 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.0 

 

49.0 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish GDP (YoY) 

4.3%

 

4.2% 

 

4.2% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.2

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.7%

 

10.4% 

 

10.6% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-9.6B 

 

-12.3B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

353K 

 

353K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3402K

 

3400K 

 

3404K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.4

 

54.6 

 

54.1 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

3.1%

 

3.5% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rules: The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)

  • Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals

News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees). 

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF 1.2066 as it continues to move away from the SNB floor. The euro continues to drop in the later half of the week against all trading partners. Overall EU and German news was positive helping push up the Swissie.

Last week, the focus of the investment community turned away from Greece. The EMU Finance Ministers approved a plan that was said to put Greece on a path to reduce its government debt to 120,5 % of GDP by 2020. At first sight, one would expect the agreement to be positive for the single currency. However, the reaction of the euro after the agreement was much muted. It was clear that even with this new plan, the issue of Greek debt sustainability was not out of the way. In addition, there was still multiple event risk on the execution of this deal. So, Greece moved a bit out of the spotlights after the Eurogroup meeting, but it is understandable that there was no euphoria from currency investors. The EMU debt crisis is far from solved. At the same time, sentiment on risk remained constructive, with most major equity indices hovering near multi-month highs.

News from the Eurozone

This week starts off with an agreement on the Greek bailout and approval from the EU, ECB and IMF. Greece passes a major hurdle and now needs to complete their agreement with the IIF.

There are worries about the CDS swaps triggering a credit event, at first, the initial ruling ruled that there would be no credit event, but it turns out that ruling was on a very small question concerning the ECB, it seems now that now that Greece has passed the new laws so they can force bondholders to accept the agreement, it will now trigger a credit event and CDS insurance will have to payout.

The ECB, liquidity operation, although successful, loans funds to over 800 banks, in excess of 500 billion euros. Markets are now worried about the consequences.

Spain reported that they will miss their budget deficit target this year, but still remain on track for 2013.

The EU approved the next tranche for Portugal.

The G20 meeting in Mexico ended without any results with non euro nations saying that the eurozone needs to pick up their game and show their money before any others would consider participating.

The EU Summit this past week went off quietly without much in the way of announcements.

Consumer confidence European Commission’s consumer confidence improved for a second straight month in February. Consumer confidence rose from -20.7 to -20.2, marginally  weaker than expected (-20.1).

Industrial new orders  Euro zone industrial new orders rebounded by 1.9%  M/M in December, while only a moderate pick up was expected.

IFO business climate indicator The German IFO index rose for a fourth consecutive month in February. The indicator jumped from 108.3 to 109.6, while a more moderate increase was expected.

Manufacturing PMI Euro zone manufacturing PMI extended its rebound in  February, rising for a third consecutive month, but at a  slower pace.  Services PMI After three consecutive increases, euro zone services PMI fell back in February, from 50.4 to 49.4, while a  slight increase was expected.

In January, the euro zone unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The unemployment rate jumped from an upwardly revised 10.6% (earlier reported as 10.4%) to 10.7%, while the consensus was looking for stabilization at 10.4%. Eurostat estimates that the number of people unemployed rose by 185 000 in the euro area in January, to a total level of 16.925 million. The highest unemployment rates were observed in the Spain (23.3%), Greece (19.9% in November), Ireland and Portugal (both 14.8%). The youth unemployment rate (under 25) was 21.6% in the euro zone. The euro zone unemployment rate is now at the highest level since October 1997 and is just 0.2% below its all time high, suggesting that a jump above the all-time highs is not excluded in the coming months.

  

Historical

Highest: 1.5193 CHF on 10 Oct 2009.

Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 1.026 CHF on 10 Aug 2011.

 

Economic Event: (GMT)

Only Major Events:

Please refer to the daily forecasts for all economic data releases for each day, with details and forecast.

Mar. 07

13:15

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 08

12:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12:45

 

EUR

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 09

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st of the month global economic data releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

0.9%

 

2.1% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

3.9% 

 

14.6% 

   

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-14.8B

 

-11.0B 

 

-12.7B 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

47.3 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

 

50.2 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

50.1 

 

50.1 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.0 

 

49.0 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish GDP (YoY) 

4.3%

 

4.2% 

 

4.2% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.2

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.7%

 

10.4% 

 

10.6% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-9.6B 

 

-12.3B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

353K 

 

353K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3402K

 

3400K 

 

3404K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.4

 

54.6 

 

54.1 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

3.1%

 

3.5% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rule: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve
  • High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher

 

Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD is down at 1.5834 on strength in the USD. Earlier last week it looked like the sterling might break the 1.60 mark but was stopped at 1.5974. The UK which has already adopted a strong fiscal goal and has continued to reduce debt and deficit spending is starting to see results. On Wednesday sterling was hit by a new selling wave after the publication of the Minutes of the previous BoE meeting. The voting pattern at the February meeting was 7-2 to raise the amount of asset purchases by £50 billion. Two members voted in favor of an increase by £75 billion. Markets apparently saw the combination of 2 voters in favor of more QE while no one voted to leave the amount of asset purchases unchanged as keeping the door open for an additional move of the BoE in the future. BoE’s Miles, one of the dissenters, defended its approach in detail in the press.

Both the USD and the pound are showing strength and it will be a battle this week to see who is strongest.

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

News from the Eurozone

This week starts off with an agreement on the Greek bailout and approval from the EU, ECB and IMF. Greece passes a major hurdle and now needs to complete their agreement with the IIF.

There are worries about the CDS swaps triggering a credit event, at first, the initial ruling ruled that there would be no credit event, but it turns out that ruling was on a very small question concerning the ECB, it seems now that now that Greece has passed the new laws so they can force bondholders to accept the agreement, it will now trigger a credit event and CDS insurance will have to payout.

The ECB, liquidity operation, although successful, loans funds to over 800 banks, in excess of 500 billion euros. Markets are now worried about the consequences.

Spain reported that they will miss their budget deficit target this year, but still remain on track for 2013.

The EU approved the next tranche for Portugal.

The G20 meeting in Mexico ended without any results with non euro nations saying that the eurozone needs to pick up their game and show their money before any others would consider participating.

The EU Summit this past week went off quietly without much in the way of announcements.

Consumer confidence European Commission’s consumer confidence improved for a second straight month in February. Consumer confidence rose from -20.7 to -20.2, marginally  weaker than expected (-20.1).

Industrial new orders  Euro zone industrial new orders rebounded by 1.9%  M/M in December, while only a moderate pick up was expected.

IFO business climate indicator The German IFO index rose for a fourth consecutive month in February. The indicator jumped from 108.3 to 109.6, while a more moderate increase was expected.

Manufacturing PMI Euro zone manufacturing PMI extended its rebound in  February, rising for a third consecutive month, but at a  slower pace.  Services PMI After three consecutive increases, euro zone services PMI fell back in February, from 50.4 to 49.4, while a  slight increase was expected.

In January, the euro zone unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The unemployment rate jumped from an upwardly revised 10.6% (earlier reported as 10.4%) to 10.7%, while the consensus was looking for stabilization at 10.4%. Eurostat estimates that the number of people unemployed rose by 185 000 in the euro area in January, to a total level of 16.925 million. The highest unemployment rates were observed in the Spain (23.3%), Greece (19.9% in November), Ireland and Portugal (both 14.8%). The youth unemployment rate (under 25) was 21.6% in the euro zone. The euro zone unemployment rate is now at the highest level since October 1997 and is just 0.2% below its all time high, suggesting that a jump above the all-time highs is not excluded in the coming months.

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.681 USD on 17 Nov 2009.

Average: 1.5807 USD over this period

Economic Events

Only Major Events:

Please refer to the daily forecasts for all economic data releases for each day, with details and forecast.

Mar. 07

13:15

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 08

12:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12:45

 

EUR

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 09

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st of the month global economic data releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

0.9%

 

2.1% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

3.9% 

 

14.6% 

   

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-14.8B

 

-11.0B 

 

-12.7B 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

47.3 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

 

50.2 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

50.1 

 

50.1 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.0 

 

49.0 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish GDP (YoY) 

4.3%

 

4.2% 

 

4.2% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.2

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.7%

 

10.4% 

 

10.6% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-9.6B 

 

-12.3B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

353K 

 

353K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3402K

 

3400K 

 

3404K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.4

 

54.6 

 

54.1 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

3.1%

 

3.5% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rule: The Canadian Dollar moves in reaction to the US Dollar. Movements are small and easy to track and trade. The Canadian Dollar also responds to economic reports within Canada. It has little action against foreign currencies except during major moves or crisis.

The USD/CAD is the single biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices. Canada which is already the biggest exporter of oil to the US will experience a boost to its economy when oil price continue to increase. Therefore, if oil rises the Canadian dollar is likely to follow. Over the past years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 81%. 

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD is trading at .9892 and it’s been a steady fall all week from 100.46 earlier in the week. The CAD is simply marching along with the USD, which was weak earlier in the week with commodity prices soaring and the euro pushing up in record trading. The markets this week have settled down and the USD has recovered with good solid economic news. A lessening of political tensions has allowed oil to fall and Fed Chairman Bernanke took the inflation out of gold.

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.0842 CAD on 01 Nov 2009.

Average: 1.0147 CAD over this period.

Lowest: 0.9435 CAD on 26 Jul 2011.

Economic Events (GMT)

Mar. 06

15:00

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 07

13:15

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 08

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14:00

 

CAD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 09

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

   

1st of the month global economic data releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

0.9%

 

2.1% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

3.9% 

 

14.6% 

   

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-14.8B

 

-11.0B 

 

-12.7B 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

47.3 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

 

50.2 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

50.1 

 

50.1 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.0 

 

49.0 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish GDP (YoY) 

4.3%

 

4.2% 

 

4.2% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.2

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.7%

 

10.4% 

 

10.6% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-9.6B 

 

-12.3B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

353K 

 

353K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3402K

 

3400K 

 

3404K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.4

 

54.6 

 

54.1 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

3.1%

 

3.5% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rule: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, wealthy investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets. Gold prices are on the rise again. You now buy three gold contracts. By the end of the week, each contract is up by 100 points. You make a cool $3,000 when you sell the three contracts. This way, you complete your third trade in a series of four trades.

This is a very simple gold trading strategy that depends on pyramiding your position with a series of four trades and removing all the profit from your account at the end of these four trades. With practice, you will find this gold trading strategy very simple and easy to implement.

  • Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
  • A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
  • Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold dropped Friday as the U.S. dollar pushed higher and investors sold the metals alongside other assets considered riskier such as stocks and oil. Gold ended $12.40, or 0.7%, lower at $1,709.80 an ounce and is expected to hold here this week until some data is released on Thursday and Friday. Without any additional geopolitical problems or surprises in Europe it should be a quiet week, as investors move into riskier assets.

Gold had gained 0.6% on Thursday. On the week, gold was down 3.7%, off nearly $70 per ounce.

We have weakness in risky assets across the board.

We also continue to see the unwinding of the [third round of quantitative easing trade, a lot of people had positioned for it ahead of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Gold declined 4.3% on Wednesday after Bernanke quashed hopes for more U.S. economic stimulus, weakening, at least for now, one of the pillars of gold’s long-term rally.

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

 

Historical

High:     1916.20

Low:      1321.10

Economic Events: (GMT)

Only Major Events:

Please refer to the daily forecasts for all economic data releases for each day, with details and forecast.

Mar. 07

13:15

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 08

12:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12:45

 

EUR

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 09

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rule: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

 Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas  is down for the week at 2.466. Natural Gas continues to fall, with excess inventory and fewer days of winter. NG should slowly continue to fall throughout the week, possibly find a near bottom at 2.40

Inventories this week eased slightly last week to 2,513 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Friday, February 24, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). The implied net withdrawal for the week was 82 Bcf, positioning storage volumes 756 Bcf above year-ago levels.

April natural-gas futures which dipped 5.9% on Thursday following a bearish inventories report bucked the trend, gaining 2 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.48 per million British thermal units.

On the week, natural gas lost 7.8%. That was natural gas’s worst week since early February

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

 

Historical:

High      5.13 January 2011

Low       2.29 January 20, 2011

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rule: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.

Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention here:
Oil spread bets are monthly contracts. This means that:
a) You don’t pay any rollover charges; the bet will run until the contract ends;
b) Now, get this, the spread bet runs out (contract expires) in the middle of the month before the month it says on the tin. So, for example, the Brent Crude August contract runs out (expires) on 14th July. How dumb is that?

What to watch when trading
trading oil involves keeping an eye on a few different factors to the standard investment stuff. In addition to the run of the mill economic data that will gives clues as to whether the world’s factories are burning more or less oil there’re a couple of seasonal factors:

First, courtesy of Top Gear, there’s the US Driving Season 

Now switch over to the weather forecast to see how windy it is. The US Hurricane Season officially runs from 1st June to 30th November, but don’t expect the forces of nature to pay too much attention to the dates. Hurricanes tend to hit the Gulf of Mexico, which is filled to the rafters with oilrigs (over 20 rigs went missing due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005).

Notice the seasonal rise in the oil price during the hurricane season.

And finally the most specific economic data to focus on are the US weekly oil and gas inventory figures, issued by the Energy Information Administration and released every week on Wednesday afternoons. If you trade oil you can’t afford to miss these.


Historical:

High:     114.57 

Low:      76.84

 Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil is holding at 106.68. On the week, oil declined 2.8%, snapping a three-week string of gains that included a 6% advance the previous week. he contract climbed above $110 a barrel Thursday on a report from an Iranian state-run broadcaster — later denied — of a pipeline explosion in Saudi Arabia

Fears of potential supply disruptions have dominated the market, and the report, however lacking in details and corroboration from other news outlets, was enough to send jittery investors into a buying frenzy.

The “erroneous report” was enough to swing whole markets because “what mattered was the fear we had of a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia. Now that fear is removed.”

Investors also weighed news President Barack Obama will speak on U.S.-Israeli relations and Iran’s nuclear program in the weekend.

Obama is scheduled to meet with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday at the White House.

Western sanctions on Iran to force it to discuss its nuclear program have been the main sore point in the oil world recently. Iran contends it seeks nuclear capabilities for peaceful purposes, but Western countries view it as a weapons program.

Oil should continue to settle this week although it will remain close to the 106.00 range.

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rule: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
  • European and UK economic data
  • Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8337. Last week, the EUR/GBP cross rate succeed a similar break higher as was the case for the EUR/USD cross rate. However, the trigger wasn’t the same. EUR/GBP was well bid from Monday. On Wednesday sterling was hit by a new selling wave after the publication of the Minutes of the previous BoE meeting. The voting pattern at the February meeting was 7-2 to raise the amount of asset purchases by £50 billion. Two members voted in favor of an increase by £75 billion. Markets apparently saw the combination of 2 voters in favor of more QE while no one voted to leave the amount of asset purchases unchanged as keeping the door open for an additional move of the BoE in the future. BoE’s Miles, one of the dissenters, defended its approach in detail in the press. Whatever the reason, EUR/GBP cleared the 0.8422 range top on Wednesday and the break accelerated on Thursday when the headline EUR/USD cross rate jumped higher on a better than expected German IFO release. EUR/GBP reached a new reaction high just north of the 0.8500 barrier on Friday. On Tuesday, EUR/GBP preceded EUR/USD in breaking the topside of the established consolidation pattern. The pair was also first to change course on Friday as EUR/USD still extended its rally at time before changing turning south again on Monday morning. As was the case for EUR/USD, it was not always clear to see the reason behind the rally of euro. However, we assume that technical considerations in a market that was short euro prevailed, as was the case for the headline EUR/USD cross rate. 

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

News from the Eurozone

This week starts off with an agreement on the Greek bailout and approval from the EU, ECB and IMF. Greece passes a major hurdle and now needs to complete their agreement with the IIF.

There are worries about the CDS swaps triggering a credit event, at first, the initial ruling ruled that there would be no credit event, but it turns out that ruling was on a very small question concerning the ECB, it seems now that now that Greece has passed the new laws so they can force bondholders to accept the agreement, it will now trigger a credit event and CDS insurance will have to payout.

The ECB, liquidity operation, although successful, loans funds to over 800 banks, in excess of 500 billion euros. Markets are now worried about the consequences.

Spain reported that they will miss their budget deficit target this year, but still remain on track for 2013.

The EU approved the next tranche for Portugal.

The G20 meeting in Mexico ended without any results with non euro nations saying that the eurozone needs to pick up their game and show their money before any others would consider participating.

The EU Summit this past week went off quietly without much in the way of announcements.

Consumer confidence European Commission’s consumer confidence improved for a second straight month in February. Consumer confidence rose from -20.7 to -20.2, marginally  weaker than expected (-20.1).

Industrial new orders  Euro zone industrial new orders rebounded by 1.9%  M/M in December, while only a moderate pick up was expected.

IFO business climate indicator The German IFO index rose for a fourth consecutive month in February. The indicator jumped from 108.3 to 109.6, while a more moderate increase was expected.

Manufacturing PMI Euro zone manufacturing PMI extended its rebound in  February, rising for a third consecutive month, but at a  slower pace.  Services PMI After three consecutive increases, euro zone services PMI fell back in February, from 50.4 to 49.4, while a  slight increase was expected.

In January, the euro zone unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The unemployment rate jumped from an upwardly revised 10.6% (earlier reported as 10.4%) to 10.7%, while the consensus was looking for stabilization at 10.4%. Eurostat estimates that the number of people unemployed rose by 185 000 in the euro area in January, to a total level of 16.925 million. The highest unemployment rates were observed in the Spain (23.3%), Greece (19.9% in November), Ireland and Portugal (both 14.8%). The youth unemployment rate (under 25) was 21.6% in the euro zone. The euro zone unemployment rate is now at the highest level since October 1997 and is just 0.2% below its all time high, suggesting that a jump above the all-time highs is not excluded in the coming months.

News from the Far East

In Australia Prime Minister Gillard won her battle against ex Prime Minister Rudd, who is now retiring from public life.

China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 51.0 from 50.5 in January.

China also signaled this week that they are considering offering assistance to the EU and the EFSF.

Japan’s unemployment rate inched up to 4.6 per cent in January from a revised 4.5 per cent in the previous month, the government said on Friday. The figure was roughly in line with economists’ forecasts.

The ministry also said January household spending fell by an inflation-adjusted 2.3 per cent year-on-year. The fall was bigger than a 0.8 per cent drop economists had expected.

Japan refrained from selling yen in the foreign-exchange market last month, according to the Finance Ministry.

The nation didn’t sell any of its currency from Jan. 30 to Feb. 27, the ministry’s month-end data posted on its website shows. The yen last week tumbled to an almost nine-month low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan on Feb. 14 unexpectedly added ¥10 trillion to an asset-purchase program and set an inflation goal of 1 percent.

 Historical:

Highest: 1.2336 EUR on 29 Jun 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 1.0686 EUR on 13 Oct 2009

 

Economic Events:

Only Major Events:

Please refer to the daily forecasts for all economic data releases for each day, with details and forecast.

Mar. 07

13:15

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 08

12:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12:45

 

EUR

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 09

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st of the month global economic data releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

0.9%

 

2.1% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

3.9% 

 

14.6% 

   

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-14.8B

 

-11.0B 

 

-12.7B 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

47.3 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

 

50.2 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

50.1 

 

50.1 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.0 

 

49.0 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish GDP (YoY) 

4.3%

 

4.2% 

 

4.2% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.2

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.7%

 

10.4% 

 

10.6% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-9.6B 

 

-12.3B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

353K 

 

353K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3402K

 

3400K 

 

3404K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.4

 

54.6 

 

54.1 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

3.1%

 

3.5% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rules: Out of the major currency pairs the most popular and easy to trade currency pair is the EUR/USD. It has become so popular with traders these days that even when there is no visible trade to be had it is yet traded as a matter of habit. This is of course something that should be avoided and any investor who trades this currency pair wisely can do so successfully with sizable profits at the end of the day.

The first thing with trading currencies is to realize that the EUR/USD is made up of two separate currencies although considered to be one unit when taken as a pair. The weaknesses and strengths of each currency have to be taken into consideration when trading the unit as it influences the final outcome. Another factor that is often overlooked by traders or investors is that the weakening of one currency along with the strengthening of the other currency in the pair results in the generation of pips. It is according to this that entry and exit from the Forex market has to be done in order to maintain profitability.

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Federal Reserve(FED)
  • Dollar strength drives EUR/USD lower
  • FED intervention to weaken the dollar the sends EUR/USD higher

 

Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3199 after falling from close to the 1.35 mark last week. The EUR/USD had a strong run. However, it was not always easy to pinpoint the exact reason behind the move. Early last week, the European Finance Ministers reached an agreement on a New Greek debt deal. However, the gains of the euro in the wake to this agreement were limited. In the second half of last week, EUR/USD jumped beyond the 1.3320 resistance level even as the news flow was rather thin at that stage. Nevertheless, the cross rate closed the week with a nice 300 ticks gain. 

Last week, the focus of the investment community turned away from Greece. The E(M)U Finance Ministers approved a plan that was said to put Greece on a path to reduce its government debt to 120,5 % of GDP by 2020. At first sight, one would expect the agreement to be positive for the single currency. However, the reaction of the euro after the agreement was very muted. It was clear that even with this new plan, the issue of Greek debt sustainability was not out of the way. In addition, there was still multiple event risk on the execution of this deal. So, Greece moved a bit out of the spotlights after the Eurogroup meeting, but it is understandable that there was no euphoria from currency investors. The EMU debt crisis is far from solved. At the same time, sentiment on risk remained constructive, with most major equity indices hovering near multi-month highs. EUR/USD held a sideways range in the 1.32 area during the first half of the week. On Thursday, EUR/USD tried a new up-leg and this time the pair succeeded to jump beyond the 1.3322 resistance. The better than expected German IFO release provided a good excuse for this move. At the same time less positive news headlines (EU commission forecasts) were largely ignored. The rebound even accelerated on Friday when there was no high profile news. The inverse correlation between the dollar and oil might have played a role too for the gains of EUR/USD

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

News from the Eurozone

This week starts off with an agreement on the Greek bailout and approval from the EU, ECB and IMF. Greece passes a major hurdle and now needs to complete their agreement with the IIF.

There are worries about the CDS swaps triggering a credit event, at first, the initial ruling ruled that there would be no credit event, but it turns out that ruling was on a very small question concerning the ECB, it seems now that now that Greece has passed the new laws so they can force bondholders to accept the agreement, it will now trigger a credit event and CDS insurance will have to payout.

The ECB, liquidity operation, although successful, loans funds to over 800 banks, in excess of 500 billion euros. Markets are now worried about the consequences.

Spain reported that they will miss their budget deficit target this year, but still remain on track for 2013.

The EU approved the next tranche for Portugal.

The G20 meeting in Mexico ended without any results with non euro nations saying that the eurozone needs to pick up their game and show their money before any others would consider participating.

The EU Summit this past week went off quietly without much in the way of announcements.

Consumer confidence European Commission’s consumer confidence improved for a second straight month in February. Consumer confidence rose from -20.7 to -20.2, marginally  weaker than expected (-20.1).

Industrial new orders  Euro zone industrial new orders rebounded by 1.9%  M/M in December, while only a moderate pick up was expected.

IFO business climate indicator The German IFO index rose for a fourth consecutive month in February. The indicator jumped from 108.3 to 109.6, while a more moderate increase was expected.

Manufacturing PMI Euro zone manufacturing PMI extended its rebound in  February, rising for a third consecutive month, but at a  slower pace.  Services PMI After three consecutive increases, euro zone services PMI fell back in February, from 50.4 to 49.4, while a  slight increase was expected.

In January, the euro zone unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The unemployment rate jumped from an upwardly revised 10.6% (earlier reported as 10.4%) to 10.7%, while the consensus was looking for stabilization at 10.4%. Eurostat estimates that the number of people unemployed rose by 185 000 in the euro area in January, to a total level of 16.925 million. The highest unemployment rates were observed in the Spain (23.3%), Greece (19.9% in November), Ireland and Portugal (both 14.8%). The youth unemployment rate (under 25) was 21.6% in the euro zone. The euro zone unemployment rate is now at the highest level since October 1997 and is just 0.2% below its all time high, suggesting that a jump above the all-time highs is not excluded in the coming months.

News from the Far East

In Australia Prime Minister Gillard won her battle against ex Prime Minister Rudd, who is now retiring from public life.

China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 51.0 from 50.5 in January.

China also signaled this week that they are considering offering assistance to the EU and the EFSF.

Japan’s unemployment rate inched up to 4.6 per cent in January from a revised 4.5 per cent in the previous month, the government said on Friday. The figure was roughly in line with economists’ forecasts.

The ministry also said January household spending fell by an inflation-adjusted 2.3 per cent year-on-year. The fall was bigger than a 0.8 per cent drop economists had expected.

Japan refrained from selling yen in the foreign-exchange market last month, according to the Finance Ministry.

The nation didn’t sell any of its currency from Jan. 30 to Feb. 27, the ministry’s month-end data posted on its website shows. The yen last week tumbled to an almost nine-month low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan on Feb. 14 unexpectedly added ¥10 trillion to an asset-purchase program and set an inflation goal of 1 percent.

 Historical:

Highest: 1.5091 USD on 03 Dec 2009.

Average: 1.3709 USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.19 USD on 07 Jun 2010.

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

Only Major Events:

Please refer to the daily forecasts for all economic data releases for each day, with details and forecast.

Mar. 07

13:15

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 08

12:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12:45

 

EUR

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 09

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st of the month global economic data releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

0.9%

 

2.1% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

3.9% 

 

14.6% 

   

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-14.8B

 

-11.0B 

 

-12.7B 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

47.3 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

 

50.2 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

50.1 

 

50.1 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.0 

 

49.0 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish GDP (YoY) 

4.3%

 

4.2% 

 

4.2% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.2

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.7%

 

10.4% 

 

10.6% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-9.6B 

 

-12.3B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

353K 

 

353K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3402K

 

3400K 

 

3404K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.4

 

54.6 

 

54.1 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

3.1%

 

3.5% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 5-9, 2012, Forecast

Rule: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment. 

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
  • Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY last week tumbled to an almost nine-month low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan on Feb. 14 unexpectedly added ¥10 trillion to an asset-purchase program and set an inflation goal of 1 percent. The yen is trading at this writing at 81.80 and should hold here until release of US data mid week

Last week, USD/JPY extended the impressive post BOJ rally. The move was clearly in the first place due to yen weakness, rather than dollar strength. The trade-weighted dollar even lost some ground on a weekly basis. The USD/JPY got also no support from rising core bond yields last week. A reasonably positive sentiment on risk reinforced the rally. USD/JPY reached a new recovery high at 81.67 on Monday morning February 27. In this respect, the augmentation of the amount of BOJ asset purchases and especially the installation of a 1% inflation target proved to be a more efficient weapon than interventions on the currency market.  Of course at some point, the current rally will have incorporated that new policy approach of the BOJ. On February 01, USD/JPY was still near to 76.00 area. Given the limited price swings that we had become used to in this cross rate of late, the gains of the previous four weeks are impressive. So, there might be room for a correction. After the policy change of the BOJ, we also look out which currency will has become the preferred safe haven in case of a deterioration in sentiment on risk. The jury is still out but with market probably long USD/JPY after the recent change in the approach of the BOJ, we wouldn’t be surprised if the first correction would be rather violent, too. That said, the BOJ applying an inflation target is a potential game changer. So, we maintain a USD/JPY positive bias longer term. At some point, the pair might also still get support from a further improvement of US eco data and higher US bond yields. We maintain a buy on-tips strategy as long as the pair is holding above the 78.29 range top. On the top side 82.23 (19May high), is the next high profile target on the charts.

Only Good News from the US:

Existing home sales US existing home sales picked up unexpectedly in January, but the previous figures were downwardly revised. 

Initial jobless claims US initial jobless claims stayed unchanged in the week ending February the 18th, while the consensus was looking for an increase.

University of Michigan consumer confidence The final figure of Michigan consumer confidence for February showed a strong upward, revision from 72.5 to 75.3, while only a minor one was expected.

New home sales After increasing for four consecutive months, US new home sales dropped at the start of 2012. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate, this week, the markets found his comments a bit dovish and drew conclusions that any additional QA was off the table for the time being. Although the Chairman warned that the economy was recovering, he stated it was fragile and he was still worried about jobs. Gold soared on his comments.

News from the Eurozone

This week starts off with an agreement on the Greek bailout and approval from the EU, ECB and IMF. Greece passes a major hurdle and now needs to complete their agreement with the IIF.

There are worries about the CDS swaps triggering a credit event, at first, the initial ruling ruled that there would be no credit event, but it turns out that ruling was on a very small question concerning the ECB, it seems now that now that Greece has passed the new laws so they can force bondholders to accept the agreement, it will now trigger a credit event and CDS insurance will have to payout.

The ECB, liquidity operation, although successful, loans funds to over 800 banks, in excess of 500 billion euros. Markets are now worried about the consequences.

Spain reported that they will miss their budget deficit target this year, but still remain on track for 2013.

The EU approved the next tranche for Portugal.

The G20 meeting in Mexico ended without any results with non euro nations saying that the eurozone needs to pick up their game and show their money before any others would consider participating.

The EU Summit this past week went off quietly without much in the way of announcements.

 Consumer confidence European Commission’s consumer confidence improved for a second straight month in February. Consumer confidence rose from -20.7 to -20.2, marginally  weaker than expected (-20.1).

Industrial new orders  Euro zone industrial new orders rebounded by 1.9%  M/M in December, while only a moderate pick up was expected.

IFO business climate indicator The German IFO index rose for a fourth consecutive month in February. The indicator jumped from 108.3 to 109.6, while a more moderate increase was expected.

Manufacturing PMI Euro zone manufacturing PMI extended its rebound in  February, rising for a third consecutive month, but at a  slower pace.  Services PMI After three consecutive increases, euro zone services PMI fell back in February, from 50.4 to 49.4, while a  slight increase was expected.

In January, the euro zone unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The unemployment rate jumped from an upwardly revised 10.6% (earlier reported as 10.4%) to 10.7%, while the consensus was looking for stabilization at 10.4%. Eurostat estimates that the number of people unemployed rose by 185 000 in the euro area in January, to a total level of 16.925 million. The highest unemployment rates were observed in the Spain (23.3%), Greece (19.9% in November), Ireland and Portugal (both 14.8%). The youth unemployment rate (under 25) was 21.6% in the euro zone. The euro zone unemployment rate is now at the highest level since October 1997 and is just 0.2% below its all time high, suggesting that a jump above the all-time highs is not excluded in the coming months.

News from the Far East

In Australia Prime Minister Gillard won her battle against ex Prime Minister Rudd, who is now retiring from public life.

China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 51.0 from 50.5 in January.

China also signaled this week that they are considering offering assistance to the EU and the EFSF.

Japan’s unemployment rate inched up to 4.6 per cent in January from a revised 4.5 per cent in the previous month, the government said on Friday. The figure was roughly in line with economists’ forecasts.

The ministry also said January household spending fell by an inflation-adjusted 2.3 per cent year-on-year. The fall was bigger than a 0.8 per cent drop economists had expected.

Japan refrained from selling yen in the foreign-exchange market last month, according to the Finance Ministry.The nation didn’t sell any of its currency from Jan. 30 to Feb. 27, the ministry’s month-end data posted on its website shows.

 

Economic Events:  (GMT)

Mar. 05

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 06

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 07

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:15

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

RBNZ Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

GDP Price Index (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 08

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tentative

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Federal Budget Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar. 09

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

             

 

1st of the month global economic data releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

0.9%

 

2.1% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

3.9% 

 

14.6% 

   

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-14.8B

 

-11.0B 

 

-12.7B 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

47.3 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.0

 

50.2 

 

50.2 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

50.1 

 

50.1 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.0 

 

49.0 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish GDP (YoY) 

4.3%

 

4.2% 

 

4.2% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

51.2

 

52.0 

 

52.0 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.7%

 

10.4% 

 

10.6% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-9.6B 

 

-12.3B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

353K 

 

353K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3402K

 

3400K 

 

3404K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.4

 

54.6 

 

54.1 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

3.1%

 

3.5% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14