There’s a New Sheriff in Town

Market participants and investors are under the assumption that this new administration will aggressively continue to propose fiscal stimulus aid.

Before his inauguration, President-elect Joe Biden revealed his stimulus proposal which will add another $1.9 trillion to the national debt. The proposed relief package will concentrate on the immediate needs of the nation. In an evening speech in Wilmington Delaware, President Biden said, “Unity is not some pie-in-the-sky dream. It’s a practical step to get any of the things we have to get done as a country, get done together,”.

More importantly, this is only the first step to a much larger recovery package that will follow. The new administration will begin its term with more than one crisis stemming from the global pandemic. Healthcare and distribution of the vaccines will be first and foremost as the president will allocate a large portion of the $2 trillion expenditure to focus upon testing, production, and delivery of vaccines. The remainder of the funds from the “American rescue plan” will provide direct aid to Americans, communities, and businesses which have been directly impacted by the pandemic.

Today’s solid move in both gold and silver, as well as U.S. equities, is based upon the expectations that President Biden will announce additional fiscal stimulus actions which will be announced and detailed as one of his first acts as president of the United States.

Concurrently the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell has pledged to maintain an extremely accommodative monetary policy with interest rates near zero at least through the end of 2022 and simultaneously continue to purchase $120 billion monthly adding to their assets. These purchases will be primarily mortgage-backed securities, corporate bonds, and U.S. treasuries.

There are also high expectations that the new head of the United States Treasury Department Janet Yellen will continue to allocate additional trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus. Janet Yellen is on record saying that the United States should “act big” on the economy. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the U.S. government has allocated almost $6 trillion for fiscal aid.

It is the massive expenditures by central banks globally in unison with the United States Federal Reserve and Treasury Department that will provide the underlying support which will weaken the dollar, and take gold and silver prices higher. The European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting this week with the goal of keeping the accommodative monetary policy in place.

Gold

As of 5 PM EST, February 2021 Comex gold futures are up by $31.10 (1.70%) and fixed at $1871.50. March Silver futures gained approximately $0.60 (+2.33%) and is fixed at $25.91.

Silver

As far as the expenditures that have totaled approximately $4 trillion for aid goes according to President Biden, he believes that this allocation of capital is unfinished business and said that “I know what I just described will not come cheaply. But failure to do so will cost us dearly.”

Clearly there is a new sheriff in town, one who promises to provide the American public and businesses with the needed capital to stay afloat. As such we expect that our national debt to reach new record levels.

For more information on our service simply use this link.

Wishing you as always, good trading and good health,

Gary S. Wagner

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Australian Dollar Remains Strong

AUD/USD Video 21.01.21.

Australian Dollar Moves Higher Against U.S. Dollar

AUD/USD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at 0.7760 while the U.S. dollar remains under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to get below the support at the 20 EMA at 90.35 and is trying to develop additional downside momentum. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move closer to the 90 level which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

Australia has recently reported that Unemployment Rate declined from 6.8% in November to 6.6% in December. Analysts expected that Unemployment Rate would decline to 6.7%. Meanwhile, Employment Change report indicated that employment increased by 50,000 in December, in line with analyst forecasts.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will also focus on the employment data from the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report is expected to show that 910,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week. Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to increase from 5.3 million to 5.4 million.

Joe Biden’s stimulus plan has recently provided material support to commodity-related currencies, including Australian dollar. If traders continue to focus on the upcoming stimulus, Australian dollar may get additional support.

Technical Analysis

aud usd january 21 2021

AUD/USD managed to settle above the resistance at 0.7740 and is trying to settle above the next resistance level at 0.7760. RSI remains in the moderate territory so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If AUD/USD settles above 0.7760, it will get to another test of the next resistance level at 0.7780. A move above this level will push AUD/USD towards the resistance at 0.7800. In case AUD/USD gets above the resistance at 0.7800, it will move towards the next resistance level which is located at January highs at 0.7820.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 0.7740 will likely serve as the first support level for AUD/USD. A move below this level will push AUD/USD towards the support at 0.7725. If AUD/USD declines below 0.7725, it will move towards the 20 EMA at 0.7705.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground Against Euro

EUR/USD Video 21.01.21.

Euro Gains Some Ground Against U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD is currently trying to get back above the resistance at 1.2130 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index declined below the support at the 20 EMA at 90.35 and is slowly moving towards the 90 level. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets to the test of this level, EUR/USD will get additional support.

Yesterday, EU reported that Euro Area Inflation Rate decreased by 0.3% year-over-year in December while Core Inflation Rate grew by 0.2%. Both reports were in line with analyst expectations.

Prices remain weak in the Euro Area due to the negative impact of the strong second wave of coronavirus. It looks like Europe’s significant problems on the virus front put some pressure on the euro in recent weeks.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will focus on the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and the subsequent commentary. The rate is expected to stay unchanged, and traders will pay attention to ECB evaluation of the current economic situation.

Technical Analysis

eur usd january 21 2021

Yesterday, EUR/USD made an attempt to settle above the resistance at 1.2155 but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum and pulled back. However, EUR/USD received strong support near 1.2080 and is trying to settle back above the resistance at 1.2130.

If this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will get to another test of the next resistance level which is located at the 20 EMA at 1.2155. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.2175. In case EUR/USD settles above 1.2175, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2220.

On the support side, the nearest material support level for EUR/USD is located at the 50 EMA at 1.2115. If EUR/USD manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.2080. A successful test of this level will push EUR/USD towards the next support level which is located at 1.2060.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.3710

GBP/USD Video 21.01.21.

British Pound Continues To Gain Ground Against U.S. Dollar

GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance at 1.3710 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to get below the 20 EMA at 90.35 and is moving towards the 90 level as foreign exchange market traders focus on Biden’s stimulus plans. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to get to the test of the 90 level, GBP/USD will get additional support.

Yesterday, UK reported that Inflation Rate increased by 0.3% month-over-month in December compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, Inflation Rate grew by 0.6%. Meanwhile, Core Inflation Rate increased by 1.4% compared to analyst consensus of 1.3%.

At this point, it is too early to tell whether inflation is moving higher in the UK. The country continues its battle against a new, more infectious strain of the virus, and the recent data suggests that UK made little progress on this front. Most likely, UK will have to keep current virus containment measures in place for more weeks than originally planned which may have a negative impact on consumer optimism and put pressure on prices.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd january 21 2021

GBP/USD is currently testing the nearest resistance level at 1.3710. Yesterday, GBP/USD made an attempt to settle above this level but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum. However, the current momentum looks strong, and GBP/USD has good chances to get above 1.3710.

If GBP/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.3710, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3755. A move above the resistance at 1.3755 will push GBP/USD towards the next resistance at 1.3785.

On the support side, the previous resistance level at 1.3665 will likely serve as the first support level for GBP/USD. If GBP/USD declines below this level, it will move towards the next support at 1.3625. A successful test of this support level will open the way to the test of the next support which is located at the 20 EMA at 1.3600.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

United Airlines Shares Slump on Deep Quarterly Loss; Lost $7.1 Billion in 2020

United Airlines reported worse-than-expected earnings in the fourth quarter with net loss ballooning to $1.9 billion and to $7.1 billion for the full-year 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions hammered air travel demand, sending its shares down about 3% in extended trading on Wednesday.

Chicago, Illinois-based airline reported fourth-quarter adjusted net loss of $2.1 billion, or a loss of $7 per share. That missed Wall Street’s estimates for a loss of $6.56 per share. The airlines’ reported loss of $7.7 billion for the full-year 2020 and total operating revenue declined 69% to $3.4 billion from the same quarter in 2019.

“Domestic remained the relative source of strength for the airline, as revenues fell 72% compared to international down 83%. The one source of relative strength on the international side was Latin America, which saw revenues decline by just 65% y-o-y as leisure demand to the region has remained strong. Cargo revenue was another source of strength, increasing 77% y-o-y, with other operating revenue declining by 31% y-o-y,” wrote Sheila Kahyaoglu, equity analyst at Jefferies.

The airline which operates a large domestic and international route network spanning cities large and small across the United States and all six continents said over the last three quarters, the company has identified $1.4 billion of annual cost savings and has a path to achieve at least $2.0 billion in structural reductions moving forward.

United Airlines forecasts the first quarter 2021 total operating revenue to be down 65-70% versus the first quarter of 2019. Accelerated distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine may lead to faster improvement, however, the company is not including this potential improvement in its first-quarter 2021 revenue outlook. The airline forecast first-quarter 2021 capacity to be down at least 51%.

United Airlines shares slumped about 3% to $43.97 in extended trading on Wednesday; the stock plunged 50% in 2020.

Analyst Comments

“United reported 4Q20 adjusted EPS slightly below our and Street expectations. Near term revenue trends are slightly worse than expected, but likely not a major focus for investors. Management targeted +$2 Bn in annual costs savings that should allow them to exceed2019 EBITDA margins by 2023. Many will look for comments on summer bookings as a snapback in 2H21 travel is expected,” said Helane Becker, equity analyst at Cowen and company.

“Trading activity will likely hinge on management comments about summer bookings and if they’ve seen any increased activity to support the idea of pent-up demand. The idea of a strong 2H21 will be dictated by vaccine distribution, something the Biden administration should push aggressively early in his administration.”

United Airlines Stock Price Forecast

Thirteen analysts who offered stock ratings for United Airlines in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months at $48.91 with a high forecast of $62.00 and a low forecast of $32.00.

The average price target represents an 8.26% increase from the last price of $45.18. From those 13 analysts, four rated “Buy”, five rated “Hold” and four rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave a base target price of $37 with a high of $79 under a bull scenario and $21 under the worst-case scenario. The firm currently has an “Underweight” rating on the airline holding company’s stock.

“Why Underweight? We believe United Airlines (UAL) has the most challenged network of any airline in our coverage based on our path for a COVID-19 recovery and a levered balance sheet, which could limit rebound opportunities. In addition, UAL’s new CEO Scott Kirby (former COO) is very well regarded by investors but investors may wait to see evidence that UAL is indeed focused on cost improvement rather than aggressive growth (at the cost of PRASM) before giving the stock credit,” said Ravi Shanker, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Stifel raised the target price to $47 from $33. Cowen and company upped to outperform from market perform, raising the price objective to $53 from $34. BNP Paribas issued an “underperform” rating and a $32 target price for the company. Citigroup reduced their price target to $43 from $47 and set a “buy” rating.

In addition, Zacks Investment Research downgraded to a “sell” rating from a “hold” and set a $38 price target. Jefferies Financial Group issued a “hold” rating and a $45 price target. At last, Exane BNP Paribas issued an “underperform” rating and a $32 price target for the company.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound but Momentum has Turned Negative

 

Natural gas prices were nearly unchanged on Wednesday after testing lower levels early in the trading session. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout the mid-west for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. Supply fell in the latest week due to declines in dry natural gas production.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rebounded from session lows and closing the session nearly unchanged. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.69. Support is seen near the December lows at 2.26. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line. Short-term omentum has also turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal.

Supply Declined

Supply fell because of declines in dry natural gas production. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.8% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 2.0% from last week.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rise in Tight Range as Momentum Turns Positive

 

Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday, as the dollar consolidated and U.S. yields remained stable. Gold volatility is also trading sideways, hovering near the 23% range. On Wednesday, the U.S. inaugurated a new President. Riskier assets moved higher, which helped buoy gold prices. Additionally, the commentary from likely Treasury secretary Janet Yellen shows that stimulus will be added and weigh on the dollar.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices rallied on Wednesday bouncing from an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,825. Resistance is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,939. While the trend is more of a consolidating, the 10-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average which means that a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 21, up from 18 and above the oversold trigger level. Medium-term negative momentum has decelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the red with a rising trajectory, which points to consolidation.

Yellen Takes Agreeable Tone

During here meeting for confirmation to the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen agree with all of her questioners but pushed back on fiscal policy, saying there was a need for another large fiscal package.  The fiscal support is shaping up to be a key test for the Biden administration.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Start of a Rally or Knee-jerk Reaction to Biden’s Inauguration?

Gold futures are trading higher shortly after the mid-session on Wednesday as traders continued to react positively to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen the previous day. Yellen essentially bolstered bets for another stimulus package under President Joe Biden that could pressure the U.S. Dollar, while driving up foreign demand for the dollar-denominated asset.

At 18:35 GMT, April Comex gold is trading $1872.30, up $28.30 or +1.53%.

Focus Shifts Toward Biden Administration

Gold traders started to form a support base last week with the release of President Joe Biden’s stimulus package proposal. Biden outlined a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, saying bold investment was needed to jump-start the economy and accelerate the distribution of vaccines to bring the coronavirus under control.

Biden campaigned last year on a promise to take the pandemic more seriously than President Donald Trump, and the package aims to put that pledge into action with an influx of resources for the COVID-19 response and economic recovery.

The aid package includes $415 billion to bolster the response to the virus and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, some $1 trillion in direct relief to households, and roughly $440 billion for small businesses and communities particularly hard hit by the pandemic.

Biden’s plan is meant to kick off his time in office with a large bill that sets his short-term agenda into motion quickly.

Transition officials said Biden’s plan will be a rescue package that will be followed up with another recovery package in the coming weeks.

Janet Yellen, U.S. President Joe Biden’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, sparked an even bigger response from the market than Biden when she urged lawmakers on Tuesday to “act big” on coronavirus relief spending, arguing that the economic benefits far outweigh the risks of a higher debt burden.

Yellen also said that the value of the dollar should be determined by markets, a break from departing President Donald Trump’s desire for a weaker U.S. currency.

“The United States does not seek a weaker currency to gain competitive advantage and we should oppose attempts by other countries to do so,” she said.

Short-Term Outlook

The huge rally on Wednesday is impressive, but it may be just a reaction to the inauguration of President Biden.

Biden’s relief package looks bullish on paper, but it still has to be paid for and that could mean higher Treasury yields, which ultimately dictate the direction of gold prices.

The gold rally could be short-lived if Treasury yields continue rise.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Steady to Higher Ahead of API Report

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging higher at the mid-session on Wednesday, underpinned by expectations that the new U.S. administration will deliver massive stimulus spending that would lift demand, as well as by OPEC output curbs, additional voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia in February and forecasts calling for a drop in U.S. crude inventories in this week’s government report.

At 16:07 GMT, March WTI crude oil is trading $53.46, up $0.48 or +0.91% and March Brent crude oil is at $56.37, up $0.47 or +0.84%.

Yellen Sets the Bullish Tone

Janet Yellen, U.S. President Joe Biden’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, set a bullish tone for crude oil traders when she urged lawmakers on Tuesday to “act big” on coronavirus relief spending, arguing that the economic benefits far outweigh the risks of higher debt burden.

Yellen also said that the value of the dollar should be determined by markets, a break from departing President Donald Trump’s desire for a weaker U.S. currency. This is important because crude oil is a dollar-denominated commodity. So when the dollar weakens, crude oil becomes cheaper to foreign buyers.

Yellen also made comments that suggest demand for gasoline could face some headwinds during the Biden administration. Yellen called climate change an “existential threat” to the U.S. economy and said she would appoint a senior official at Treasury to oversee the issue and assess systemic risks it poses to the financial system.

She added investment in clean technologies and electric vehicles was needed to cut carbon emissions, keep the U.S. economy competitive and provide good jobs for American workers.

American Petroleum Institute Weekly Inventories Report

At 21:30 GMT, the API will release its weekly inventories report. It is expected to show crude stocks fell by 300,000 barrels in the week to January 15.

Short-Term Outlook

Sentiment is being supported by Yellen’s declaration for the government to “act big” on stimulus. Traders believe a surge in debt-funded spending would be a positive for the global economy, demand for crude oil and commodity prices in general. Meanwhile, it would put pressure on the U.S. Dollar that would boost foreign demand for dollar-based crude oil.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At 1.2625

USD/CAD Video 20.01.21.

Canadian Dollar Gained Strong Upside Momentum

USD/CAD is testing the support level at 1.2625 while the U.S. dollar is mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trading in the range between the support at the 20 EMA at 90.35 and the resistance at 90.50. If the U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 20 EMA, it will gain additional downside momentum and move towards the 90 level which will be bearish for USD/CAD.

Today, Canada reported that Inflation Rate decreased by 0.2% month-over-month in December. Analysts expected that Inflation Rate would remain unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, Inflaiton Rate grew by 0.7% compared to analyst consensus of 1%. Meanwhile, Core Inflation Rate increased by 1.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, in line with the analyst consensus.

Interestingly, today’s inauguration of Joe Biden had little impact on the dynamics of the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market. Perhaps, traders would like to see his first moves before evaluating the future trajectory of the American currency.

Today, commodity-related currencies like Canadian dollar received material support as oil gained ground on stimulus optimism. If WTI oil manages to settle above multi-month highs, Canadian dollar will get additional support.

Technical Analysis

usd cad january 20 2021

USD to CAD managed to get below the support at 1.2665 and tested the next support level at 1.2625. USD to CAD failed to settle below the support at 1.2625 on the first attempt, but it maintains good chances to get to another test of this support level. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum.

If USD to CAD settles below 1.2625, it will head towards the next support level at 1.2590. A successful test of this level will push USD to CAD towards the next support which is located at 1.2550.

On the upside, the previous support at 1.2665 will likely serve as the first resistance level for USD to CAD. A move above this level will push USD to CAD towards the resistance at 1.2700. If USD to CAD gets above 1.2700, it will head towards the resistance at 1.2720.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Procter & Gamble Raises FY2021 Guidance; Stock Has 20% Upside Potential

Procter & Gamble, the world’s largest maker of consumer packaged goods, reported better-than-expected earnings in the fiscal second quarter and said it has raised its outlook for fiscal 2021 all-in sales growth to a range of 5-6% from the previous forecast of 3-5%.

Cincinnati, Ohio-based consumer goods corporation said its net sales rose 8% to $19.7 billion in the second quarter fiscal year 2021. Diluted net earnings per share increased 4% to were $1.47 and Core-EPS surged 15% to $1.64, beating the Wall Street consensus estimate of $1.51 per share.

Procter & Gamble raised its outlook for organic sales growth to a range of 5-6% from 4-5%. The Company said it now expects fiscal 2021 GAAP diluted net earnings per share growth in the range of 8-10% from fiscal 2020 GAAP EPS of $4.96. In addition, P&G upgraded their guidance for core earnings per share growth to a range of 8-10% from 5-8% versus fiscal 2020 core EPS of $5.12.

Procter & Gamble’s (PG) strong quarter should lift shares, improve sentiment for (lagging) HPC group -stock remains a Franchise Pick. We are focused on a “stronger for longer” theme in HPC w/ ’21 a transition year as the public gradually overcomes its trepidation toward the vaccine, though certain consumer behaviours sustain (cleaning, health & wellness, etc.), which should benefit PG and the group,” noted Kevin Grundy, equity analyst at Jefferies.

“At 22x P/E, PG (and our “core” HPC / beverages basket) are near relative lows vs. the S&P 500 last seen during the 08-09 downturn, leaving risk-rewards skewed to the upside. PG’s strong quarter should drive shares higher and offers a positive read-through for the group as Procter kicks off earnings season.”

However, Procter & Gamble shares traded 1.2% lower at $132.0 on Wednesday; the stock rose over 11% in 2020.

Procter & Gamble Stock Price Forecast

Twelve analysts who offered stock ratings for Procter & Gamble in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months at $157.00 with a high forecast of $169.00 and a low forecast of $130.00.

The average price target represents an 18.82% increase from the last price of $132.14. From those 12 analysts, eight rated “Buy”, four rated “Hold” and none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave a base target price of $165 with a high of $184 under a bull scenario and $103 under the worst-case scenario. The firm currently has an “Overweight” rating on the consumer goods corporation’s stock.

Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. JP Morgan lowered the target price to $159 from $163. Jefferies decreased the price objective to $168 from $169. Smith Barney Citigroup boosted their price objective to $165 from $159.

In addition, Truist boosted their price objective to $150 from $125. Wells Fargo & Company set an “overweight” rating and a $160.00 price objective for the company.

Equity Analyst’s View

“We expect a positive reaction to a strong FQ2 with a 2.5% top-line and 10.8% operating profit beat vs consensus, driven by strong 8% organic sales growth and an 80-bps gross margin beat vs consensus. Importantly, each segment organic sales growth was 5% or above, giving us greater confidence that PG momentum can continue going forward, as results were not narrowly driven by any one segment benefitting from COVID-19 demand. PG essentially flowed through almost all of Q2 EPS upside vs consensus to FY21 EPS guidance, which moved up by 250 bps at its midpoint, but we still view as overly conservative,” said Dara Mohsenian, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We believe strategy tweaks can sustain PG long-term top-line growth in the 4% range. In the US, a strong breadth of performance and share gains give us confidence that market share momentum is sustainable and supports long-term top-line growth above HPC peers. We see continued GM expansion with moderate commodity headwinds and a solid competitive environment. PG trades at 23x CY22e EPS, a discount to HPC peers CLX, CL and CHD, and looks compelling given our call for higher long-term PG growth.”

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Oil Gains Ground On Stimulus Optimism

Oil Video 20.01.21.

Oil Tries To Settle Above Multi-Month Highs

WTI oil made an attempt to settle above multi-month highs at $53.90 as traders focused on Joe Biden’s stimulus plans.

The market believes that Joe Biden will not face significant resistance against the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, and that the direct support to consumers will boost oil demand in the near term.

Judging by the recent coronavirus data from the U.S., traders should not expect strong virus containment measures which may deliver another blow to the domestic oil demand.

While Joe Biden has many times stated that he planned to boost coronavirus response, his measures will likely be focused on increased healthcare funding rather than restrictions on mobility which is good for the oil market.

Oil traders have successfully ignored the constant flow of bad news from Europe which struggles to contain the second wave of the virus, and it looks like only a true catastrophe may attract their attention. The market remains in a bullish mood, and expectations of another round of stimulus may serve as the catalyst that will push WTI oil towards the $55 level.

Analysts Expect That Crude Inventories Will Continue To Decline

The market’s optimism will soon get tested by crude inventory reports from API and EIA which will indicate whether the current oil demand is strong enough to push inventories to lower levels.

Currently, analysts expect that crude inventories will decrease by about 0.3 million barrels. The previous EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed that crude inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels and were about 8% above the five-year average for that time of the year.

Thus, the pace of crude inventory draw is expected to decrease. Inventories have been declining since early December so the continuation of this trend may provide psychological support to the market. At the same time, a sudden increase in crude inventories may hurt the market’s mood as oil remains near multi-month highs which increases its sensitivity to such news.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – ‘Risk On’ Sentiment Chasing Out Weak Short-Sellers

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading higher on Wednesday helped by a weaker U.S. Dollar and the hope of huge fiscal stimulus from the Biden administration to combat the effects of coronavirus on the economy. Meanwhile, the economic news in Australia remained mostly positive.

At 10:53 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7733, up 0.0035 or +0.45% and the NZD/USD is at .7137, up 0.0020 or +0.28%.

Traders are now looking forward to the inauguration of President Joe Biden at 17:01 GMT and a speech that follows. Early Thursday, Australia will release its latest data on Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. Early Friday, New Zealand will release its latest report on consumer inflation.

More US Fiscal Stimulus to Come

Demand for riskier currencies is being supported by a declaration from Janet Yellen, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, that the government had to “act big” on coronavirus relief spending, arguing that the economic benefits far outweigh the risks of a higher debt burden.

Yellen also said that the value of the dollar should be determined by markets, a break from departing President Donald Trump’s desire for a weaker U.S. currency.

“The United States does not seek a weaker currency to gain competitive advantage and we should oppose attempts by other countries to do so,” she said.

Australian Consumer Confidence Clouded by COVID-19 in January Survey

A measure of Australian consumer sentiment slipped from a decade high in January as new outbreaks of COVID-19 in Sydney and Brisbane spooked people, though the spread has now been contained with relatively few cases and no deaths, Reuters Reported.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment released on Wednesday fell 4.5% in January, from December, when it rose 4.1%.

The index is still 41% above a nadir hit back in April when COVID-19 lockdowns were at their height, and 14.6% up on January last year. At 107.0, the index implies optimists clearly outnumber pessimists.

“A pullback in the index was to be expected,” said Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans. “Since the last survey we have seen domestic border closures; the emergence of COVID clusters in some states; and the sharp upswing in COVID cases overseas, notably the U.S. and the U.K.”

Daily Forecast

A surge in debt-funded spending would be a positive for the global economy and commodity prices, while more money-printing could put pressure on the U.S. Dollar.

Commodities saw the benefit with oil prices climbing anew, while an auction of dairy, New Zealand’s biggest export earner, produced a sharp 4.8% rise in prices.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bulls May Be Close to Throwing in the Towel on Winter Cold

Natural gas futures are trading lower at the midsession on Wednesday as hopes for an extreme cold snap fade with every new weather forecast calling for milder trends over the near-term.

The early pressure was fueled by the European model, which trended milder, putting it about 10-12 heating degree days warmer compared to previous runs over the past 24 hours, NatGasWeather said on Wednesday.

At 14:54 GMT, March natural gas futures are trading $2.477, down $0.052 or -2.06%.

NatGasWeather also said the American model added demand overnight, “but the European had been colder, and the natural gas markets were likely hoping the frostier scenario would come through,” the firm said. “Not to be the case, as the weather data disappoints yet again, as it’s done in almost all instances the past two winters.”

There’s still a “decent” amount of national demand expected starting this weekend through January 29, NatGasWeather said.

“However, the natural gas markets were clearly hoping for frigid air over Western Canada to push more aggressively across the Midwest and Northeast instead of only modest cold shots arriving,” according to the firm. “Also at issue, the pattern is now quite bearish for February 1-3 as warm upper high pressure builds over most of the U.S. besides the West Coast and far East for light national demand.”

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for January 20 to January 26, “A cold shot will track across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast today with chilly highs of 20s & 30s. Most of the rest of the U.S. will be mild with highs of 40s to 60s for light national demand. Colder weather systems will push into the West and Northern Plains with rain and snow late this week with lows of -10s to 30s, then spreading across the rest of the northern U.S. this weekend for a swing to strong national demand.”

Daily March Natural Gas

Short-Term Outlook

Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Storage report is likely to be a non-event because the data represents conditions for the week-ending January 15 and traders are focusing on next week’s heating demand and the possibility of bearish weather for February 1 – 3.

There’s still a shot at some decent demand next week, but it’s only supposed to be a spike lower in temperatures rather than a lingering cold spell. That’s not enough to wake up the bull.

The daily chart pattern suggests the bearish tone is likely to continue on a sustained move under $2.485, but we could see a short-covering surge if buyers can recover $2.552 with conviction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Asia-Pacific Stocks Finish Mostly Higher as Alibaba Shares Soar in Hong Kong

Most of the focus was on Hong Kong where listed shares of Chinese tech juggernaut Alibaba surged following the reappearance of founder Jack Ma.

Asian shares were supported early as U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen advocated for a hefty fiscal relief package to help the world’s largest economy ride out a pandemic-driven slump. At her confirmation hearing on Tuesday, she said the benefits of a big stimulus package to help the world’s largest economy ride out a pandemic-driven slump.

Cash Market Performance

In the cash market on Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index settled at 28523.26, down 110.20 or -0.38%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index finished at 29962.47, up 320.19 or +1.08% and South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 3114.55, up 21.89 or +0.71%.

China’s Shanghai Index settled at 3583.09, up 16.71 or +0.47% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index finished at 6770.40, up 27.80 or +0.41%.

Hong Kong Shares End at Over 20-Month High on Tech Boost

Hong Kong shares ended at their highest level in more than 20 months on Wednesday, extending gains for the fifth straight session boosted by gains in tech stocks. The IT sector sub-index led the gains by rising 5.47%, with the heavyweight Alibaba Group recorded the best intraday gain in more than six months.

Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance since October, as he spoke to a group of teachers by video, easing concerns about his unusual absence from public life and boosting shares in the e-commerce giant.

South Korea’s Kia Says Looking at Electric Car Projects with Multiple Firms after Apple Report

In corporate developments, shares of South Korean automaker Kia Motors surged 5.04% after the firm said it is looking at electric car projects with multiple firms, Reuters reported citing a regulatory filing.

That development came after a local online publication reported that Kia’s parent Hyundai Motor Group had decided Kia would be in charge of the proposed cooperation with Cupertino-based tech giant Apple on electric cars, according to Reuters.

Australian Shares at Near 11-Month High as Yellen Backs More US Stimulus

Australian shares ended firmer on Wednesday, taking cues from overnight gains in Wall Street, on expectations that a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package would come through, while optimism over domestic corporate earnings also lent support.

Auto parts seller RPM Automotive Group, not an index constituent, advanced as much as 35.9% after raising its 2021 revenue forecast by 44%, while Ansell also rose after the glove maker forecast exceeding its earlier sales outlook.

Morgan Stanley recently said the upgrade cycle for ASX200 stocks in calendar year 2021 was underway and saw some signs of an earnings revival to come through in the upcoming February earnings season, estimating high-single-digit earnings growth in fiscal 2021.

Stocks Move Higher Ahead Of Joe Biden’s Inauguration

Traders Remain Optimistic As Biden Takes Office

S&P 500 futures are gaining ground in premarket trading as traders prepare for the first term of the new U.S. President Joe Biden.

Biden is expected to sign many executive orders in the first days of his presidency, reversing some of Donald Trump’s policies and boosting response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The market clearly provides Biden with the benefit of the doubt and expects that the new President will be able to provide additional support to the U.S. economy.

Market’s main focus is the new $1.9 trillion stimulus plan which should boost consumer spending at a time when Retail Sales have started to show weakness under the pressure from the second wave of the virus. If Biden succeeds in delivering the new stimulus package in the upcoming weeks, stocks will have an opportunity to gain strong upside momentum.

Janet Yellen Urged Lawmakers To “Act Big”

Yesterday, Janet Yellen stated that U.S. lawmakers should “act big” on the new coronavirus aid package to provide support to the economy.

She argued that the benefits of additional stimulus outweighed the risks of higher debt levels. Yellen’s dovish stance may serve as an additional upside catalyst for the markets.

Interestingly, foreign exchange market traders have not made up their minds on the impact of the new stimulus package, and the U.S. dollar was volatile but lacked direction in recent days. Meanwhile, stock traders are clearly optimistic about Yellen’s future policies.

Oil Moves Towards Multi-Month Highs

WTI oil is currently trying to get to the test of the recent highs at $53.90 as traders bet that the new round of stimulus will boost demand for oil.

Oil-related stocks had a strong trading session on Tuesday and look set to continue their upside move as investors put more money into the sector due to rising oil prices.

Oil traders have managed to ignore all negative developments on the coronavirus front and focused on the long-term picture. The current market mood remains bullish, and WTI oil has a good chance to get above recent highs and move towards the $55 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

UnitedHealth Earnings Beat Wall Street Estimates; Target Price $395

As expected, fourth quarter net earnings of $2.30 per share and adjusted earnings of $2.52 per share declined as care patterns normalized, while COVID-19 costs rose, and further rebate effects were recognized. That was higher than the market expectations $2.41 per share.

The Company affirmed its recently issued full year earnings outlook for 2021, including net earnings of $16.90 to $17.40 per share and adjusted net earnings of $17.75 to $18.25 per share. The largest insurance company by Net Premiums’ said its full-year 2020 revenues of $257.1 billion grew $15.0 billion or 6.2% year-over-year, reflecting broad-based revenue growth across the businesses.

“Adj. EPS $2.52 vs. $2.41 consensus. 4Q MLR 190 bp better than consensus but the full year MLR was only 10 bp better than UNH’s full year guide of 79.2%. Optum results were better-than-expected across the board. Management noted continued restoration of care patterns in 4Q20– positive for the group as it indicates better visibility into 2021, all else equal, although we look for more detail on the call,” said Charles Rhyee, equity analyst at Cowen and company.

UnitedHealth shares closed 0.25% higher at $352.19 on Tuesday; the stock rose about 20% in 2020.

UnitedHealth Stock Price Forecast

Eighteen analysts who offered stock ratings for UnitedHealth in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months at $395.61 with a high forecast of $462.00 and a low forecast of $359.00.

The average price target represents a 12.33% increase from the last price of $352.19. From those 18 analysts, 16 rated “Buy”, two rated “Hold” and none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave a base target price of $462 with a high of $529 under a bull scenario and $261 under the worst-case scenario. The firm currently has an “Overweight” rating on the health care company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Cowen and company raised the target price to $370 from $360. Bernstein upped the stock price forecast to $413 from $403. Jefferies increased the price objective to $375 from $335. UnitedHealth Group had its target price hoisted by Deutsche Bank to $404 from $359. The brokerage currently has a buy rating on the healthcare conglomerate’s stock.

In addition, Raymond James increased their target price to $405 from $355 and gave the stock a strong-buy rating. Truist increased their target price to $420 from $400. Credit Suisse Group increased their target price to $395 from $355 and gave the stock an average rating.

Analyst Comments

“UnitedHealth Group is the number one Medicare Advantage player with 28% market share, the number two Medicare PDP player with 20% market share, and the number two commercial player with 15% market share. United’s model is enhanced via vertical integration with its OptumRx PBM platform, which is one of the three largest PBMs in the country,” said Ricky Goldwasser, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“With a large lead in breadth of services offerings and considerable exposure to government businesses, UnitedHealth is well positioned for any potential changes in the US healthcare system. A strong balance sheet and continued solid cash generation give flexibility for continued M&A.”

Netflix Rockets After New Subscribers Fuel Blockbuster Q4 Sales

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) shares surged over 12% in extended-hours trade Tuesday after the streaming content provider reported better than expected fourth-quarter sales on the back of robust subscriber growth. The company also said it is considering returning free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks.

Revenues for the fourth quarter (Q4) came in at $6.64 billion, slightly above the $6.63 billion consensus mark analysts had forecast. Moreover, the top line grew 20% from a year earlier, thanks to a boost of 8.5 million paid subscribers during the period. The company disclosed quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19, with the figure falling shy of Wall Street estimates of $1.30 a share and contracting 8% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis.

As of Jan. 20, 2021, Netflix stock has a market value of $221.68 billion and trades 7.21% lower on the year. However, the shares have gained nearly 50% over the past 12 months as investors piled into names that benefited from consumers spending more time at home during the pandemic.

Returning Free Cash Flow to Investors

CFO Spencer Neumann raised the prospect of returning excess free cash flow to investors while remaining on the lookout for strategic investments. “We put a premium on balance sheet flexibility, so we’re going to continue to invest aggressively into the growth opportunities that we see, and that’s always going to come first,” he said, per CNBC. “But beyond that, if we have excess cash, we’ll return it to shareholders through a share buyback program,” Neumann added. He also told investors that the company would no longer need to raise external financing for its daily operations.

Wall Street View

Citi’s Jason Bazinet maintained his ‘Neutral’ rating on Netflix shares earlier this month but raised his price target to $580 from $450. The analyst cautioned price hikes might limit new subscribers in coming quarters, resulting in a loss of market share to Disney’s streaming service, Disney+.

Elsewhere, the Street sentiment remains mostly bullish. The shares receive 21 ‘Buy’ ratings, 4 ‘Overweight’ ratings, and 12 ‘Hold’ ratings. Just one sell-side firm currently recommends selling the shares. Price targets range from as high as $700 to as low as $235, with the median pegged at $580.60. Watch for a flurry of additional upgrades over the next few weeks after yesterday’s upbeat quarterly update.

Technical Outlook and Trading Tactics

Since climbing to a new all-time high in mid-July, Netflix shares have remained stuck in a 110-point trading range. Premarket data indicates the stock will open around $565 today, placing the price toward the range’s upper trendline.

Those looking to play a breakout should plan entries above key resistance at $575 while managing risk with a stop-loss order placed around $20 below the execution price. Consider using a measured move to set a profit target. For example, add the trading range distance, as measured in points, to the breakout level. ($105 + $575 = $680 profit target)

For a look at today’s earnings schedule, check out our earnings calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Continues To Rebound

EUR/USD Video 20.01.21.

U.S. Dollar Is Under Pressure Against Euro

EUR/USD is trying to settle back above the resistance at 1.2155 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index declined below the support level at 90.50 and is currently testing the next support level at the 20 EMA at 90.35. In case the U.S. Dollar Index settles below this level, it will gain additional downside momentum which will be bullish for EUR/USD.

Yesterday, EU reported that Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index increased from 54.4 in December to 58.3 in January despite the negative impact of the second wave of the virus.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will have a chance to take a look at Euro Area inflation data for December. Inflation Rate is projected to decline by 0.3% year-over-year while Core Inflation Rate is expected to grow by 0.2%. Most likely, prices will remain weak in the EU in the upcoming months due to the negative impact of lockdowns in the first quarter of this year.

Technical Analysis

eur usd january 20 2021

EUR/USD managed to get above the resistance at 1.2130 and is trying to settle above the next resistance level at 1.2155. If this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will get to the test of the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2165. The next resistance level is located at 1.2175, so EUR/USD will likely face strong resistance in the 1.2155 – 1.2175 area.

In case EUR/USD manages to settle above this resistance area, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the resistance at 1.2220. A successful test of this level will push EUR/USD towards the resistance at 1.2250.

On the support side, the previous resistance level at 1.2130 will likely serve as the first support level for EUR/USD. In case EUR/USD declines below this level, it will get to the test of the next support at the 50 EMA at 1.2115. A move below the 50 EMA will push EUR/USD towards the next support level which is located at 1.2080.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Traders Weigh America’s Future Relationship with Key Oil Players

With the Biden inauguration scheduled to hold at the U.S capitol today, oil traders are a tad concerned about what foreign policy stand his presidency will take has regard to U.S future relationship with key oil producers that include Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

One of the wild cards some energy experts are envisaging is an upside to Iranian current oil production level dependent on the potential lifting of America’s sanctions under the incoming U.S president.

Such action however could affect crude oil demand/supply rebalancing negatively taking into consideration that the global economy hasn’t yet recovered amid rising COVID-19 cases globally thereby making a strong case on crude oil prices plunging below $50/Barrel once again.

Oil bulls are taking control of the prevailing oil price action on the account that open interest in the black liquid hydrocarbon is on the rise, as leading hedge funds momentarily in large numbers consider investing into the commodity asset class. This is because many oil traders consider the black fossil as a hedge against inflationary pressures.

In buttressing the bullish bias in play recent data reveal there has been an upsurge in the number of Oil bulls in the past week. About 163 money managers placed bullish bets on Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate in the previous week showing the highest uptick demand by such fund managers in 11 months.

Brent crude the global benchmark for crude is expected to reach $60 in Q1, 2021 amid unprecedented stimulus programs expected to be unveiled by the incoming Joe Biden Presidency.

Also, Oil prices are being supported by the falling value in the greenback on the fact that the weaker U.S dollar lends support to crude oil prices since it’s denominated in U.S dollars.

The U.S dollar is expected to remain under pressure, at least in Q1, 2021 as it would be in the interest of the U.S. economy to keep the dollar lower in order for U.S leading companies to remain competitive coupled with spurring local consumption at the world’s largest economy. Such macro would aid crude oil prices in the mid-term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.