NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan.20, 2012 Forecast

Close of  the Asian Session

Economic Events:

There are no economic events  or reports expected to effect the kiwi today.

Analysis and Recommendation:

Levels of Support and Resistance can be found today at:

S:            0.7912   0.7956   0.7994  
P:0.8038             
R:            0.8076   0.812     0.8158

NZD/USD is trading at 0.8014 down from the opening at .8044 which was the high for the day.

The pair will remain quiet and just continue to track the EU crisis, making a blip up and down on the news of the day.

The US jobs data is due out on Thursday morning ( US Eastern Time ), if the reports come out over forecast, the USD could rally pushing the kiwi down and waking up this pair. At this time, the data is expected to be at forecast levels, but like earlier in AUD, the data can surprise, if the data is bad, the USD will sink.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis Jan. 20, 2012, Forecast

Close of the Asian Session

Economic Events: (GMT)

Jan. 19

13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.10% 0.20%

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.20% 0.00%

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 385.00K 399.00K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3590.00K 3628.00K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.  If the report comes in under the 385K we can expect to see the USD fall against the Yen, but if the report is at the 399K level or above expect to see the USD rally and trend upwards on solid economic news.

Analysis and Recommendation:

Levels of Support and Resistance can be found today at:

S:            76.456   76.5555  76.674                 
Pivot:    76.7735
R:            76.892   76.9915   77.11

USD/JPY was trading at 76.76

The USD/JPY closed almost at the open today, moving very little. The duo seem to have been sleeping all week. What little life they have shown has been in reaction of EU.

In the news a comment from a Goldman exec said that the JPY is probably 25% overvalued and Japan’s days of trade and current account surpluses “look to be finished”. Even the Japanese Minister joined the crowd, stating it is difficult at this moment to find an FX level for the JPY similarly to the Swiss Franc. The markets and currencies are all skewed by the EU crisis.

The two will most likely trade in this range for the rest of the week. Watch the US jobs reports, this could be the kickstart the USD needs to rally, but at this writing all looks calm.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

13:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.90% -0.80%

Manufacturing Sales measures the change in the overall value of sales made at the manufacturing level.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 385.00K 399.00K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3590.00K 3628.00K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.  If the report comes in under the 385K we can expect to see the USD fall against the Swissier, but if the report is at the 399K level or above expect to see the USD rally and trend upwards on solid economic news.

15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.00M

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Support and Resistance levels for tomorrow      
S:            1.0140   1.0105   1.0075
R:            1.0210   1.0250   1.0320

The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.0123  down from opening at 101.52

The IMF noted today, that they would discuss increasing their funding to 1 trillion euros, at their meeting the end of February, though this news pushed the euro, it is an old story and just a discussion some 6 weeks from now. The USD was down a bit today, on some inflation comments. Tomorrows jobs reports in the US should meet forecasts and have little effect on the markets. Also tomorrow crude inventories reports will be out, but again no major changes here. If either reports exceed or fall short of forecasts, then there might be some action between the pair.

The US Government today turned down a Canadian company’s plans to build a pipeline from the US/Canada border to the Gulf of Mexico, to transport oil from the Canadian tar fields through Oklahoma and onto the Gulf of Mexico. This pipeline would serve many uses and have many benefits. The pipeline is seen as one way to deal with a supply situation in Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil, and also as an inexpensive transport to get oil from the Canadian tar sands and oil fields on the border of Canada to U.S. refinery industry along the Gulf of Mexico.

The most important benefit means less reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports. The pipeline project, however, has been under intense criticism from environmentalists.

The loonie will most likely trade sideways within a tight range for the next day or so.

Crude Oil Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

Crude Oil Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Crude Oil Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Crude oil prices declined though the German and Portuguese bond auctions showed an spike in demand, spurring demand for the euro-area common currency, accordingly, the euro rose against US dollar, while stocks in Europe went pared early gains.

Euro advanced sharply against the U.S dollar after the International Monetary Fund said that it could expand its capacity to 1 trillion dollars from 385 billion dollar in order to support the global economy and prevent the debt crisis from spreading outside the euro-area region.

Now, eyes will be spotted the performance of the European economy, especially after the ECB lent the European banks huge amount of money, and if that money will help the euro zone to continue recovery process amid big challenges.

Gold Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

Gold Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Gold Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices inclined as the USD lost strength despite the German and Portuguese bond auctions that showed an spike in demand, increasing demand on the euro- area common currency, accordingly, the euro rose against US dollar, while stocks in Europe pared early gains.

Euro advanced sharply against the U.S dollar after the International Monetary Fund said that it could expand its capacity to 1 trillion dollars from 385 billion dollar in order to support the global economy and prevent the debt crisis from spreading outside the euro-area region.

Accordingly, we should expect more fluctuations for gold, but should the current pessimism persist, we should expect gold prices to extend the rallies, however, the level of uncertainty is very high, and investors are ought to remain cautious.

Natural Gas Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

Natural gas prices traded on Wednesday near a 10-year low even as forecasts for colder-than-normal Midwest weather signaled increased demand for heating fuel.

Traders will continue to focus on weather developments, where weather forecasts suggest temperatures will be likely lower than average over the coming period, and that could put natural gas between gains and losses in next period.

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CAD pair dropped on Wednesday as the USD lost strength despite the German and Portuguese bond auctions that showed an incline in demand, and that made investors to buy more euros, accordingly, the euro rose against US dollar, while stocks in Europe pared early gains.

Euro advanced sharply against the U.S dollar after the International Monetary Fund said that it could expand its capacity to 1 trillion dollars from 385 billion dollar in order to support the global economy and prevent the debt crisis from spreading outside the euro-area region.

The USD/CAD pair could still rise if pessimism continues to dominate markets, as uncertainty remains the main theme in markets, and that could also lead to deep fluctuations for the USD/CAD pair.

Thursday January 19:

Canada won’t release any new data, so fluctuating trading in the pair is expected, and eyes will be focused on Europe and the crisis that could cause any change in trading.

Gold Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 385.00K 399.00K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3590.00K 3628.00K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.  If the report comes in under the 385K we can expect to see the USD fall and a rise in Gold, but if the report is at the 399K level or above expect to see the USD rally and trend upwards on solid economic news.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold futures mounted a rise today, ending the day at a five-week high and extending rise to two days. Gold for February delivery ended $4.30 up, or 0.3%, at $1,659.90 on the Comex. Prices started the day in negative territory but turned upward as investors saw a hint of inflation in a U.S. government report and the dollar extended its fall. Face it with the situation in Europe the safety of gold looks better and better every day. But watch for a dollar rally, but gold will mount a comeback if the USD does rally

Support and Resistance levels for tomorrow      
S:            1631.9   1612.9   1595.9
R:            1668.     1658.7   1653.1

Gold continues to be a strong buy, adding on the dips.

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -95.00B

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week.

While this is a U.S. indicator it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada’s sizable energy sector.

16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.00M

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

 16:00 USD Gasoline Inventories 3.60M    

Gasoline Inventories measures the change in the number of barrels of commercial gasoline held in inventory by commercial firms during the reported week. The data influences the price of gasoline products which affects inflation.

The data has no consistent effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas continues to fall as the days left of winter begin to wane. Weather is still the major factor here. The weather picture continues to call for a warm winter and the glut of natural gas grows. Tomorrow’s natual gas inventory should push the price down farther. Natual Gas is down, trading at 2.51 from yesterday’s close at 2.53.

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -95.00B

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week.

While this is a U.S. indicator it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada’s sizable energy sector.

 16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.00M

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

 16:00 USD Gasoline Inventories 3.60M    

Gasoline Inventories measures the change in the number of barrels of commercial gasoline held in inventory by commercial firms during the reported week. The data influences the price of gasoline products which affects inflation.

The data has no consistent effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is currently trading at 100.45

Support and Resistance levels for tomorrow      
S:            100.97   100.39   99.36
R:            103.73   102.98   102.06

 

The US Government today turned down a Canadian companys plans to build a pipeline from the US/Canada border to the Gulf of Mexico, to transport oil from the Canadian tar fields through Oklahoma and onto the Gulf of Mexico. This pipeline would serve many uses and have many benefits. The pipeline is seen as one way to deal with a supply situation in Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil, and also as an inexpensive transport to get oil from the Canadian tar sands and oil fields on the border of Canada to U.S. refinery industry along the Gulf of Mexico.

The most important benefit means less reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports. The pipeline project, however, has been under intense criticism from environmentalists.

A report out today from the International Energy Agency cut demand estimates for 2012. But continued tensions with Iran and the problems from Nigeria pushed prices upwards.

With all the ups and downs today, Crude is just about back where it opened but still above the 100.00 level. Factoring in the glut of Natural Gas, the OPEC assurances to replace any demand or reduction in production because of middle east problem, Crude Oil is looking to drop. Sell on the peaks.

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events:

09:00 EUR  ECB Monthly Report

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Support and resistance levels                    
S:            1.2033   1.205     1.2077
R:            1.2121   1.2138   1.2165

EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2096 This pair is a non story, nothing much happening and too much risk in either direction to trade the pair. Its hands off until a story unfolds. The pair is currently trading at 1.2096 just about even to the open today. It seems that the ZEW report positive news has offset against the IMF story and the pair has remained as it was yesterday

Fact or fiction, dreams or reality, rumors or news, which ever this is, it is the driving forces in the currency markets this afternoon. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to expand its lending capacity to $1 trillion from the current $385 billion to protect the global economy from the negative consequences of the European debt crisis, according to an official at a Group of 20 nations.

The question is will they be able to find contributions to do so, and how would these contributions be limited to the EU. The IMF charter requires assistance to all countries. How would the US veto power work in this instance? Today’s report contains no facts just a fact that a discussion will be held.

The big story unfolding is in Greece where Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said he would consider raising legislation to force a private-sector haircut on the debt if a deal can’t be reached voluntarily. Greek talks remained stalled as it is becoming more and more obvious that Greece will sooner or later default regardless of the negotiations and this temporary solution.

The european currency was propped up when Reuters reported that an analyst at Fitch said the agency did not expect Italy to default.

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events:

08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 385.00K 399.00K

08:30 USD  Continuing Jobless Claims 3590.00K 3628.00K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.  If the report comes in under the 385K we can expect to see the USD fall against the Swissie, but if the report is at the 399K level or above expect to see the USD rally and trend upwards on solid economic news.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Support and Resistance levels for tomorrows at     S:       0.9333   0.9391   0.9441

R:         0.9549   0.9607   0.9657

 

The USD/CHF trading at 0.9434 range for today is among the major support at 0.9300 and the major resistance at 0.9660.

The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.8850 targeting 0.9950.

The ZEW index of Swiss economic expectations rebounded to minus 50.1 this month, from minus 72.0 in December, the strongest increase since April 2011.

The U.S. dollar was lower against the Swiss franc, as market sentiment strengthened on the back of expectations that China will ease monetary policy, but uncertainty over the ongoing debt crisis in the euro zone lingered.

The recent story about the IMF raising 1 trillion euro to help the EU countries has skewed the markets.

This is a wait and see scenario, watch tomorrows job reports from the US.

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

There are no economic events scheduled in the UK

09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Analysis and Recommendations:

There are support and resistance levels are         S:            0.822     0.8243   0.8276

R:            0.8332   0.8355   0.8388

Sterling dropped against the euro with EUR/GBP at 0.8320. (.16%) The euro rose to a three-day high against the gbp moved by speculation that the International Monetary Fund is looking at ways to expand its lending resources to USD1 trillion, from the existing USD385 billion.

With the euro artificially inflated this is a definite sell situation, as the euro will not maintain its strenght.

The jobless report from the U.K. gave some support to the duo as claims for the month of December recorded a drop to 1.2 thousands compared with 3.0 thousands in November,which was furtherrevised down to 0.002 , ILO unemployment for the three months ended November climbed to 16-year high to 8.4%, exceeding both prior and median forecasts of 8.3%. Tomorrow will be unemployment reports in the US. If these figures are at or above forecast we could see the USD rally against the GBP. Although most of the movement will be from EU news and rumors as it was today.

Fact or fiction, dreams or reality, rumors or news, which ever this is, it is the driving forces in the currency markets this afternoon. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to expand its lending capacity to $1 trillion from the current $385 billion to protect the global economy from the negative consequences of the European debt crisis, according to an official at a Group of 20 nations.

The question is will they be able to find contributions to do so, and how would these contributions be limited to the EU. The IMF charter requires assistance to all countries. How would the US veto power work in this instance? Today’s report contains no facts just a fact that a discussion will be held.

The big story unfolding is in Greece where Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said he would consider raising legislation to force a private-sector haircut on the debt if a deal can’t be reached voluntarily. Greek talks remained stalled as it is becoming more and more obvious that Greece will sooner or later default regardless of the negotiations and this temporary solution.

The european currency was propped up when Reuters reported that an analyst at Fitch said the agency did not expect Italy to default.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast


Economic Events: (GMT)

No Economic Events are scheduled in the UK

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 385.00K 399.00K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3590.00K 3628.00K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.  If the report comes in under the 385K we can expect to see the USD fall against Sterling but if the report is at the 399K level or above expect to see the USD rally and trend upwards on solid economic news.

Analysis and Recommendations:

There are support levels for tomorrows trading at S:       1.5217   1.525     1.5286

R:         1.5355   1.5388   1.5424

The GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.5405 after recording a high of 1.5436 and a low of 1.5328, while the trading range for today is among key support at 1.5125 and key resistance at 1.5555.

The pair rose on the daily charts, on some weakness in the USD but remained in a tight range

The jobless report from the U.K. gave some support to the duo as claims for the month of December recorded a drop to 1.2 thousands compared with 3.0 thousands in November,which was furtherrevised down to 0.002 , ILO unemployment for the three months ended November climbed to 16-year high to 8.4%, exceeding both prior and median forecasts of 8.3%. Tomorrow will be unemployment reports in the US. If these figures are at or above forecast we could see the USD rally against the GBP. Although most of the movement will be from EU news and rumors as it was today.

 

Fact or fiction, dreams or reality, rumors or news, which ever this is, it is the driving forces in the currency markets this afternoon. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to expand its lending capacity to $1 trillion from the current $385 billion to protect the global economy from the negative consequences of the European debt crisis, according to an official at a Group of 20 nations.

The question is will they be able to find contributions to do so, and how would these contributions be limited to the EU. The IMF charter requires assistance to all countries. How would the US veto power work in this instance? Today’s report contains no facts just a fact that a discussion will be held.

 

The big story unfolding is in Greece where Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said he would consider raising legislation to force a private-sector haircut on the debt if a deal can’t be reached voluntarily. Greek talks remained stalled as it is becoming more and more obvious that Greece will sooner or later default regardless of the negotiations and this temporary solution.

The european currency was propped up when Reuters reported that an analyst at Fitch said the agency did not expect Italy to default.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 385.00K 399.00K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3590.00K 3628.00K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.  If the report comes in under the 385K we can expect to see the USD fall against the Swissier, but if the report is at the 399K level or above expect to see the USD rally and trend upwards on solid economic news.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Support Levels at S1:      1.2979   1.2857   1.2824

Resistance Levels             1.2723   1.27        1.2627

Fact or fiction, dreams or reality, rumors or news, which ever this is, it is the driving forces in the currency markets this afternoon. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to expand its lending capacity to $1 trillion from the current $385 billion to protect the global economy from the negative consequences of the European debt crisis, according to an official at a Group of 20 nations.

The expansion discussions will probably take place at the coming G-20 Finance Chiefs meeting in Mexico on Feb 25-26, where contributions from (BRIC) China, Brazil, Russia, India, Japan and oil-exporting nations are the main base for the expansion. The question is will they be able to find contributions to do so, and how would these contributions be limited to the EU. The IMF charter

requires assistance to all countries. How would the US veto power work in this instance? Today’s report contains no facts just a fact that a discussion will be held.

The euro responded to this news, moving up in afternoon trading the EUR/USD rose to $1.2845 from $1.2728, the duet subsequently consolidated at 1.2839, jumping 0.81%.

The big story unfolding is in Greece where Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said he would consider raising legislation to force a private-sector haircut on the debt if a deal can’t be reached voluntarily. Greek talks remained stalled as it is becoming more and more obvious that Greece will sooner or later default regardless of the negotiations and this temporary solution.

The european currency was propped up when Reuters reported that an analyst at Fitch said the agency did not expect Italy to default.

The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.2832.

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The pair soared on Wednesday trading, for the third straight session, as the improvement in the sentiment after the IMF plan to expand its lending capacity by $500 billion and successful European debt auctions damped demand on the dollar.  

The IMF is planning to expand its lending capacity to $885 billion from the current $385 billion to protect the global economy from the negative consequences of the European debt crisis, according to an official at a Group of 20 nation.

A successful bond selling by both Germany and Portugal added more positivity to the sentiment. 

Germany sold two-year bills at lower yields and stronger demand, where the government sold 3.44 billion euros of 2-year notes with an average yield of 0.17% from 0.29% in the prior auction, while the bid-to-cover ratio improved to 2.2 times compared with the previous 1.43 times recorded December’s auction.

Portugal also auctioned 1.25 billion euros, 754 million euros and 496 million euros of 11-, 6- and 3-month bonds respectively, where the yield of the six-month bills retreated to 4.74% from 5.25% in the prior auction. 

Furthermore, Greece will resume talks with private sector debt holders on Wednesday after the halt of the negotiations on January 13, to reach an agreement over the size of losses to be bared by creditors to avert a possible default as early as in March.

On the other hand, data from the U.K. gave slight support to the pair as while jobless claims for the month of December recorded a drop to 1.2 thousands compared with 3.0 thousands in November, which was revised down to 0.2 thousands, ILO unemployment for the three months ended November climbed to 16-year high to 8.4%, exceeding both prior and median forecasts of 8.3%.

On Thursday, the U.S. economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 24 and continuing claims for the week ended Dec. 16, where they will be available at 13:30 GMT. At 14:45 GMT, Chicago purchasing manager is estimated to retreat to 60.2 in Dec. from the previous 62.6. 15 minutes later, pending home sales for Nov. will signal 1.8% advance compared with the preceding 10.4% rise.

The U.S. will start the data at 13:30 GMT with the Inflation Report. The CPI index is expected with 0.1% rise on the month after holding unchanged the previous month and on the year to slow to 3.1% after 3.4%. Excluding food and energy the index is expected with 0.1% rise on the month after 0.2% gain and on the year to hold at 2.2%.

December Housing Starts index is also due the same time and expected flat at 685,000 while Building Permits are expected with 0.7% drop to 675,000 from 681,000.

As for the Jobless Claims for the week ending in January 14 it is also due at 13:30 GMT as usual after last week they rose 24,000 to 399,000 last week.

As for the Philadelphia Fed Index for January the index is due 15:00 GMT and expected to improve slightly to 11.0 from 10.3.

The data will affect the pair’s movement due to its relevance, yet the pair will probably be more affected by the general sentiment which will focus on an auction from Spain. 

USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/CHF Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The pair fell sharply on Wednesday trading, for the third straight session, as the improvement in the sentiment after the IMF plan to expand its lending capacity by $500 billion and successful European debt auctions damped demand on the dollar.   

The IMF is looking forward to expanding its lending capacity to $885 billion from the current $385 billion to protect the global economy from the negative consequences of the European debt crisis, according to an official at a Group of 20 nation.

The announcement provided optimism in markets, especially after a successful bond selling by both Germany and Portugal.

Germany managed to sell two-year bonds at lower yields and stronger demand, where the government sold 3.44 billion euros of 2-year notes with an average yield of 0.17% from 0.29% in the prior auction, while the bid-to-cover ratio improved to 2.2 times compared with the previous 1.43 times recorded December’s auction.

Portugal also auctioned 1.25 billion euros, 754 million euros and 496 million euros of 11-, 6- and 3-month bonds respectively, where the yield of the six-month bills retreated to 4.74% from 5.25% in the prior auction.  

Moreover, Greece will resume talks with private sector debt holders on Wednesday after the halt of the negotiations on January 13, to reach an agreement over the size of losses to be bared by creditors to avert a possible default as early as in March.

On the other hand, the Swiss franc took advantage of the dollar’s drop and gained another support from the ZEW survey which showed that the index rose to the highest level since seven months as it surged to -50.1 in January from -72.0 last month.

On Thursday, the U.S. economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 24 and continuing claims for the week ended Dec. 16, where they will be available at 13:30 GMT. At 14:45 GMT, Chicago purchasing manager is estimated to retreat to 60.2 in Dec. from the previous 62.6. 15 minutes later, pending home sales for Nov. will signal 1.8% advance compared with the preceding 10.4% rise.

The U.S. will start the data at 13:30 GMT with the Inflation Report. The CPI index is expected with 0.1% rise on the month after holding unchanged the previous month and on the year to slow to 3.1% after 3.4%. Excluding food and energy the index is expected with 0.1% rise on the month after 0.2% gain and on the year to hold at 2.2%.

December Housing Starts index is also due the same time and expected flat at 685,000 while Building Permits are expected with 0.7% drop to 675,000 from 681,000.

As for the Jobless Claims for the week ending in January 14 it is also due at 13:30 GMT as usual after last week they rose 24,000 to 399,000 last week.

As for the Philadelphia Fed Index for January the index is due 15:00 GMT and expected to improve slightly to 11.0 from 10.3.

The data will affect the pair’s movement due to its relevance, yet the pair will probably be more affected by the general sentiment which will focus on an auction from Spain.  

EUR/CHF Forecast January 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

EUR/CHF Forecast January 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
EUR/CHF Forecast January 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The EUR/CHF pair traded narrowly yesterday and ended the session very weak, yet during the session the pair fluctuated heavily within those narrow levels; however, the upbeat sentiment in the euro-area region in addition to the unexpected improvement in the ZEW Expectations for the Swiss economy led the pair to remain around the opening level.

Today, the EUR/CHF pair is expected to trade narrowly as usual as there are no crucial data from the Switzerland, where the eyes will be focused on the trade figures from the euro zone and also on the Spanish bond sale, as investors are still tracking whether the improvement in the bond auctions are meant to last or not.

The ECB will release the monthly report for January at 09:00 GMT. At the same time we have the Current Account for November which is likely to improve from the previous recorded 7.5 billion euro deficit in October after the reported huge trade surplus on the back of exports gains.

Auctions:

09:30 GMT Spain sells bills

 

EUR/USD Forecast January 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

EUR/USD Forecast January 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast January 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The EUR/USD pair ended a strongly bullish session yesterday affected by the flow of positive data, which supported the pair to regain momentum and negated the effect of other bearish data from the euro zone.

Yesterday, the euro advanced sharply against the U.S. dollar after the International Monetary Fund said that it could expand its capacity to 1 trillion dollars from 385 billion dollar in order to support the global economy and prevent the debt crisis from spreading outside the euro-area region.

The German successful bond sale also added positivity to the market and supported the euro to hold onto the gains despite the government’s act of revising growth forecasts.

Today, the pair could fluctuate heavily with the heavy load of fundamentals awaited from the euro-zone and the United States, where during the European session the concentration is expected to remain on the Spanish bond sale and the trade balance figures, where better than expected data could support the euro to continue the upside move against the weakening U.S. dollar.

The data from the United States are expected weak; however, better than expected fundamentals could also support the sentiment to remain positive in the market, in case it was seen in the first place during the European session.

The ECB will release the monthly report for January at 09:00 GMT. At the same time we have the Current Account for November which is likely to improve from the previous recorded 7.5 billion euro deficit in October after the reported huge trade surplus on the back of exports gains.

The U.S. economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 24 and continuing claims for the week ended Dec. 16, where they will be available at 13:30 GMT. At 14:45 GMT,Chicagopurchasing manger is estimated to retreat to 60.2 in Dec. from the previous 62.6. 15 minutes later, pending home sales for Nov. will signal 1.8% advance compared with the preceding 10.4% rise.

The U.S. will start the data at 13:30 GMT with the Inflation Report. The CPI index is expected with 0.1% rise on the month after holding unchanged the previous month and on the year to slow to 3.1% after 3.4%. Excluding food and energy the index is expected with 0.1% rise on the month after 0.2% gain and on the year to hold at 2.2%.

December Housing Starts index is also due the same time and expected flat at 685,000 while Building Permits are expected with 0.7% drop to 675,000 from 681,000.

As for the Jobless Claims for the week ending in January 14 it is also due at 13:30 GMT as usual after last week they rose 24,000 to 399,000 last week.

As for the Philadelphia Fed Index for January the index is due 15:00 GMT and expected to improve slightly to 11.0 from 10.3.

Auctions:

09:30 GMT Spain sells bills

USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair dropped for the third day, where the US dollar and the yen continued to lose ground against other majors, giving the higher-yielding currencies a chance to recover from previous losses.

The U.S. economy is showing many signs of recovery in different sectors, which could reflect negatively on the greenback as a safe haven, where investors will increase their appetite for risky assets.

On Thursday at 13:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the Consumer Price Index for December, where the prior reading was 0.0% and it’s expected to come at 0.1%. The annual CPI had a prior reading of 3.4% and expected to come at 3.1%.

The Housing Starts for December will be released also at 13:30 GMT, where the previous reading was up by 9.3% at 685 thousand, and expected to remain unchanged at 685 thousand. The U.S. Building Permits are expected with 0.7% drop to 675 thousand from the prior reading of 681 thousand.

The weekly initial claims are also due at the same time, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased to 399 thousand last week.