GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Consolidating

The British pound has been very noisy as of late, obviously due to the Brexit and the never-ending headlines. With that being the case, it makes quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see a lot of confusion in this pair as it is so sensitive to risk appetite, and of course is going to be very sensitive to the Brexit itself.

GBP/JPY  Video 16.10.19

Keep in mind that the Japanese yen is a major safety currency, so if there are concerns around the global financial system, then typically money will run towards it. Brexit certainly falls in that scenario, but there are also other concerns such as the US/China trade talks, and many other things like that. At this point in time the technicals probably are going to lead the way as the 200 day EMA is right in the middle of trading action, and therefore a lot of longer-term traders are going to be looking at this as both potential support and resistance. If we break above the candle stick on Friday, then I suspect that this pair is going to go screaming to the ¥140 level.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the hammer from the session on Monday and of course take out the psychologically important ¥135 level, then it’s likely that this market breaks down towards the 50 day EMA which is currently trading at the ¥133 handle. All things being equal, if you are short-term trader then you need to be looking at range bound traits. If you are a longer-term trader then you need to see either Monday or Friday get broken.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound pulls back from 200 day EMA

This pair is essentially going to be a very difficult pair to get a grasp on at times, because the pair obviously has to deal with Brexit which is a complete mess. Brexit is all over the place, although there have been some more positive comments as of late, and that of course helps the British pound in general. This pair is a bit more thin than GBP/USD, so it will probably move rather quickly. That being the case, the market could be rather explosive in one direction or the other.

GBP/JPY  Video 15.10.19

The ¥135 level underneath should be supportive, so a break down below there would lead to much deeper losses. However, at this point the market also has to deal with the overall risk appetite, which is a bit perplexing at the moment as the US/China trade situation has continued to stall and produce nothing. With that being the case it’s a bit surprising that this market would show signs of bullish pressure, as Brexit has obviously gotten this market in overdrive.

If we were to break above the top of the candle stick for Friday, that opens up the door to the ¥140 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. At this point, we are essentially between two major levels, so it’s likely that the market will continue to be very noisy in general as the market has a lot to digest.

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GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Skyrockets

The British pound has rallied significantly during the week, breaking above the ¥135 level, an area that also features the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a shooting star on the weekly chart that led to the last selloff. At this point, officials are saying very little as far as concrete details are concerned but they are tweeting. With that, this market could be disappointed, and if it is you can anticipate that the selloff will be brutal. After all, between Thursday and Friday, the market had rallied about 750 pips. That is far too much in a short amount of time to be sustainable.

GBP/JPY  Video 14.10.19

Looking at the candle stick though; it does show that the market is ready to turn around. If it does pull back on a shorter timeframe and find support at the ¥135 level, then it could be a nice buying opportunity for a longer-term play. However, this truly doesn’t happen until Brexit is completely solved. At this point, we are already starting to see Boris Johnson walked back expectations slightly, so I do think that disappointment could be coming. However, price is king, so therefore we need to respect the upward momentum. Longer-term traders should be looking for pullbacks on daily charts if we get that negotiated settlement. At that point, then the market is more than likely going to go looking towards the ¥150 level, possibly even the ¥163 level. If we don’t get that deal and they disappoint people yet again, you can count on losing 300 pips immediately.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Has Yet Another Bullish Session

The British pound has shot higher during the trading session on Friday again as the Brexit negotiations supposedly are going well. However, Boris Johnson has already walked back expectations a bit, so if there is some type of negative and ugly surprise, this market could crater. If you are a longer-term trader, then it’s simply a matter of waiting for a pullback as we have gotten far ahead of ourselves in this move. 750 pips later and counting, this is a market that is far too expensive suddenly to buy. That doesn’t mean that you can’t go long, but you need to find some type of value.

GBP/JPY  Video 14.10.19

Beyond all of that, going into the weekend we could very well see a massive gap in one direction or the other, as traders come back to work next week. With that, be very cautious and unless you are already long of this pair, you are better off simply waiting for a pullback that offers value or selling the disappointment that could come back into the marketplace. If they do in fact get the deal done, then the bottom has been put in, and the market should continue to go much higher and possibly towards the ¥150 level, meaning that you should have plenty of time to take advantage of the longer-term trend on a pullback.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Pressing Resistance

The British pound has initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday but then crashed into the top of several candlesticks from the previous sessions this week. That being said, the market is very likely to find quite a bit of selling pressure just above, especially near the 50 day EMA. At this point in time it’s very likely that the market could roll over a bit, and that of course makes sense that the GBP/JPY pair could continue to break down. At this point, the ¥130 level underneath should be a significant support level, as it is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area where we have seen a lot of resistance previously.

GBP/JPY  Video 11.10.19

Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and of course the nonsense that continues with Brexit. Even beyond that, the US and China have sat down to start talking, so it’s very likely that there will be headlines that cause a “risk on/risk off” scenario. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy and susceptible to the occasional rumor or Tweet that comes out of days that could throw around. If the market were to break down below the ¥130 level, it’s very likely that we would then go towards the lows yet again. Obviously, the alternate sign would be that a significant break above the ¥133 level could open the door to ¥135. However, that’s the least likely of the scenarios.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound continues to struggle

The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as the British pound continues to go back and forth due to the headlines involving the Brexit. In this pair, it’s also a bit of a risk barometer that should be paid attention to, as traders continue to see headlines back and forth involving the US/China trade set up, which of course has a major effect on risk appetite around the world. There has been rumblings about the Chinese taking a “partial deal”, something that shows that China may be flexible, but at the end of the day the Americans are going to accept that.

GBP/JPY  Video 10.10.19

The pair continues to fail at the ¥132 level, and therefore it should be paid attention to the scenario of failing not only there, but the 50 day EMA just above. Ultimately, this is a market that will probably continue to see a lot of back-and-forth action going forward, based upon the occasional headline. However, one thing that’s hard to deny is that the minefield that is Brexit and the US/China trade talks will continue to cause issues. And signs of uncertainty, most market sell off. This one will be any different obviously. To the downside, the ¥130 level should offer a certain amount of psychological support, so I would be aware of that potential on a selloff. Breaking through the ¥130 level, it’s likely that the market could go down to the ¥128 handle.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound breaks down

The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but ran into a significant amount of resistance in the form of the ¥132 level. The 50 day EMA is just above, offering a significant amount of resistance, and it could in fact offer essentially what could be thought of as a “ceiling” in the market for the short term. The ¥130 level underneath of course is going to be considered supportive from a psychological standpoint underneath, so at this point it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where traders will simply slice through it. However, with all of the Brexit noise, that could in fact happen.

GBP/JPY  Video 09.10.19

Keep in mind that this is a market that is highly sensitive to risk, and there does seem to be plenty of it out there. Because of this, the pair is probably one that will be sold on short-term rallies, at least until we can break above the 50 day EMA. A break down below the ¥130 level has the market reaching towards the ¥127.50 level again and seems to be the most likely of longer-term moves. This doesn’t mean that we will get the occasional rally but you should look at that as “value” in the Japanese yen, especially against the British pound which has so many other external factors tied into it right now. If the market was to turn around and clear the ¥132.50 level, then we would have to rethink things.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound chops against Japanese yen

The British pound gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Monday, but then turned around to fill that gap. The confusion that the market has seen over the last couple of days makes quite a bit of sense, as this pair is so highly sensitive to risk appetite. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to show signs of choppiness as we have a lot of different geopolitical concerns and trade issues out there. Beyond that, we also have Brexit when it comes to this pair as well, so this is an especially sensitive Japanese yen pair.

GBP/JPY  Video 08.10.19

To the downside, the market could go looking towards the ¥130 level, and with the 50 day EMA above offering such a significant psychological and structural resistance, we could find a reason to get down there. Quite frankly, we are only one headline away from seeing this market role right back over again, or for that matter rally. If we were to rally than I suspect that the ¥135 level above will be difficult to break through. All things being equal, this is a market that is probably going to remain very difficult to hang onto, as it tends to be very volatile under the best of circumstances. In this current environment, things can only get worse would be my suspicion. Position sizing will be crucial when it comes to trading “The Dragon”, as when it finally makes its move it will probably be sudden and quite brutal.

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GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British pound continues to fall against Japanese yen

The British pound initially tried to rally during the week but then fell over to reach down towards the ¥131.50 level. At this point, the market is likely to continue to go lower, based upon the longer-term downtrend, the shooting star from a couple of weeks ago, which of course is sitting at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The market has been negative for some time, and the fact that the geopolitical concerns around the world continue to cause issues, leads me to believe that we will continue to drop from here. The ¥130 level is a major target, an area that could cause significant support as it was previous resistance shown by a couple of shooting stars.

GBP/JPY  Video 07.10.19

To the upside, the ¥135 level should offer a significant barrier of resistance. If we were to break above the shooting star from a couple of weeks ago, that would be a major turn of events but right now it still looks very likely to favor the downside as Brexit causes issues, and of course there are plenty of problems out there to keep traders concerned about the overall risk appetite. Ultimately, it is not until Brexit is solved that this pair will be able to take off to the upside for a sustained move. Because of this I remain bearish and have no interest in trying to fight what I see as an extraordinarily strong trend. Ultimately, this is a market that I fade rallies in but tend to focus more on short-term charts.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound continues to drift lower

The British pound has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Friday, as the “risk off” attitude continues. Ultimately, the market looks to be breaking below the ¥132 level, especially after breaking the bottom of the inverted hammer from the Thursday session. Beyond that, the 50 day EMA is starting to turn lower, perhaps reaching back towards the ¥132 level to offer even more resistance. The market has been very negative for quite some time, and as it is risk sensitive to global and geopolitical issues, it could propel this market lower. However, without a doubt one of the biggest factors will be the Brexit.

GBP/JPY  Video 07.10.19

There are a lot of concerns when it comes to Brexit, as headlines will continue to throw this market back around. All it takes is one headline, tweet, or rumor to have algorithms buying or selling this pair rapidly. Because of this, you need to be very cautious about your position size, as sudden breaking news can cross your account. All things been equal though, it looks very likely that we will continue to drift lower based upon the fact that Brexit is nowhere near being completed, and of course concerns about the trade wars. Ultimately, this is a market that will react to the world issues that seem to be unending at this point. Looking at this chart, the ¥130 level looks to be very likely charged. Rallies will be sold into, but if the market was to turn around and break above the ¥135 level, it would certainly make a statement for a longer-term trend change.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound showing consolidation against yen

The British pound has initially pulled back during the day on Thursday, breaking down below the ¥132 level, before turning around and reaching towards the 50 day EMA. The 50 day EMA is currently at the ¥132.50 level, an area that of course will attract a certain amount of attention. Because of this, the market should be paid attention to for the next day or so as it could give us a signal as to where we are going next. Longer-term, it’s obvious that we are in a downtrend but a break above the 50 day EMA on a daily close after the jobs figure on Friday could be reason enough to reach towards the ¥135 level.

GBP/JPY  Video 04.10.19

The alternate scenario of course is a break down below the bottom of the trading session on Thursday, which sends this market down towards the ¥130 level. Ultimately, this is a market that will be sensitive to risk appetite overall, as the Japanese yen is of course the “safest currency” of the G 10. The British pound of course also has the specter of the Brexit situation taking over and, so there is still a lot of weight around the neck when it comes to this pair. There is a 500 PIP range that the market is trading and right now, so if we were to break out of this range, then the market could really get that move. However, the short-term I suspect that it’s not until the end of the week close that we get an idea as to which one of these levels we are attacking next.

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Yen – The Currency of Choice in Volatile October

The Trend is always a Trader’s Friend

USDJPYDollar Yen has been locked in a sideways action for most of the last three weeks between a top capped by the 50.0 Fibonacci and September high at 108.50 and a floor at 107.00. Wednesday’s move down below the 20-day moving average also breached the flat-lining 50-day moving average and was another attempt to test the 107.00 low. A breach of this level would test the 23.6 Fibonacci level and S2 at 106.00, the September low at 105.75 and the August low and key psychological 105.00. A breach and hold of 108.50 could then test the 200-day moving average at 109.00 and the 61.8 Fibonacci level. The Oscillators remain neutral but bias is to the downside in the higher timeframe weekly and monthly charts.

EURJPYThe Euro continues to be buffeted by continued weak economic data, the uncertainty that still swirls around Brexit and now the Trade War comes to Europe as the WTO backs the US and the imposition of tariffs on $7.5bn of goods it imports from the EU. The pair broke under the 20 SMA September 23, stalling at 118.00 and the 50.0 Fibonacci level before moving lower again yesterday to the 61.8 Fibonacci level. 117.00 represents the next support and the 116.00 September low. A significant reversal over 118.50 is required if the pair is to test 120.00 and the September high. The Oscillators remain negative and the bias is to the downside in the higher timeframe weekly and monthly charts.

GBPJPY – Sterling, as I have written many times in the last 40 months, remains firmly locked in the claws of Brexit fear, uncertainty and doubt and if it’s one thing that markets hate above all else it is FUD. GBPJPY the “widow-maker” moved below the 20 SMA and 50-day moving average September 27 stalling at 132.50 and the 38.2 Fibonacci level before moving lower again on Wednesday to test the S1 level at 131.50. Today the pair has recovered 132.50. 131.00 and the 50.0 Fibonacci level is the next support area, with the 61.8 Fibonacci at 130.00. The September low breached 127.00. A reversal over 133.50 is required if the pair is to test over 135.00 and the September high. The Oscillators are negative and the bias in the higher timeframes is mixed with the weekly chart positive and the monthly chart still negative.

AUDJPY – Action recently from the RBA has seen the Aussie depreciate significantly, with the AUDUSD posting a new more than 10-year low this week at 0.6670. AUDJPY, a proxy for China’s economic resilience and wider Asian economic performance, moved under the 20 SMA September 20, spending 6 days supported at 72.75 and the 38.2 Fibonacci level before moving lower on Tuesday under 72.00 to test the 61.8 Fibonacci at 71.67, below that is the floor of the recent consolidation zone at 70.75. The Oscillators remain negative and the bias in the higher timeframes is mixed with the weekly chart positive and the monthly chart still negative.

 

CAD, CHF & NZD Yen crosses also all remain below the key 20 SMA, having broken below on October 2, September 30 and September 19, respectively.

 

As Q419 completes its first week the Japanese Yen remains in demand as economic data continues to underwhelm, the “R” word (Recession) appears in the literature more frequently and the spectre of the inverted yield curve persists.

Stuart Cowell, Head Market Analyst at HotForex

(read our HotForex Review)

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound continues to drift lower

The British pound broke down a bit during the trading session on Wednesday against the Japanese yen as we are below the 50 day EMA. By doing so, it looks as if we may try to continue to drag this market down, but at the end of the day we still see quite a bit of order flow in this general vicinity and of course the Brexit headlines can jump in and cause issues at any moment. Because of this, position size should be adjusted accordingly, perhaps keeping half of the normal position that you would under typical circumstances. As we approach the October 31 deadline, things could get ugly in one direction or the other so please keep that in mind.

GBP/JPY  Video 03.10.19

If we break down below the lows on the Wednesday session, it’s very likely that we will continue to go looking towards the ¥130 level. At this point, that’s my default scenario but I also recognize that if we recapture the 50 day EMA which is just above the candle stick for the day, that could send this market looking towards the ¥133.25 level, perhaps breaking out above there and reaching towards the ¥135 level which should be even more resistive. Although we have had a nice bounce recently, keep in mind that the longer-term trend is still to the downside and there certainly are a lot of things out there that could cause a major “risk off” trade which would drive this pair lower anyway.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Japanese Yen Strengthens on Risk Aversion

Market concerns over the largest economy in the world experiencing a slowdown is sending shockwaves across financial markets, with risk aversion boosting appetite for safe-haven currencies. The Japanese Yen was a trader’s best friend today after appreciating against every single G10 currency. With risk-off the name of the game, the Japanese Yen could take a shot at claiming King Dollar’s throne.

Focusing on the technical picture, the USDJPY is under pressure on the daily charts. An appreciating Yen has sent the USDJPY below 107.50. A solid weekly close below this level is likely to encourage a decline towards 106.90.

EURJPY trades to near 3 week low

A broadly appreciating Yen also sent the EURJPY towards 117.40.

Sustained weakness below the 117.50 level should inspire bears to attack 117.00 and 116.50. Should 118.00 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURJPY could push back towards 118.60.

GBPJPY eyes 131.00 on rising risk aversion

Sterling has weakened against the Japanese Yen 3 thanks to global growth fears and Brexit related uncertainty.

The GBPJPY is turning bearish on the daily charts and is positioned to drop further if 131.50 gives way. Technical traders will be looking for a solid daily close below 131.50 which could open a path towards 130.70.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold was back in fashion after disappointing US economic data renewed fears over slowing global growth. The precious metal is set to push higher this week if risk aversion remains a dominant market theme.

Looking at the technical picture, an intraday breakout above $1485 should inspire an incline towards the psychological $1500 level.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound continues to look soft

The British pound initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen, but then broke down again to form a rather negative sign. The market is sitting on top of that 50 day EMA, which of course causes a certain amount of support and interest in the market. Breaking down below the ¥132 level would of course send this market lower, perhaps reaching down to the ¥130 level. On the other hand, if the market were to turn around and break above the high from the Monday or Tuesday sessions, that of course could send this market higher, perhaps reaching towards the ¥135 level. That is an area that should cause a lot of resistance, as it is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

GBP/JPY  Video 02.10.19

As we have a lot of concerns when it comes to Brexit, I suspect this pair probably has more downside than up, as the market certainly has quite a bit to worry about when it comes to global trade wars, geopolitical issues, beyond any of the internal workings of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. The Japanese yen should continue to attract a certain amount of money, as there should be plenty of concern out there to continue to drive this market lower. That being said, a headline could turn things around quite rapidly as we have seen more than once, so stop losses will be crucial.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound looking for support

The British pound has rallied slightly to kick off the trading week against the Japanese yen, as we are currently testing the 50 day EMA. This is a major indicator that attracts a lot of attention, so the fact that we bounced a bit to kick off the week probably isn’t a huge surprise. All of that being said, we are probably due for some type of balance after the selloff, but keep in mind that we had sold off from the crucial ¥135 level.

GBP/JPY  Video 01.10.19

The ¥135 level also features the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which of course will attract a lot of attention. It is because of this that even if we do rally from here I suspect there will be a lot of trouble found in that region. Also, let us not forget that the bra exit situation still is murky and noisy to say the least, so it makes sense that we continue to see a lot of mistrust of the British pound. With all of the political noise coming out of London, it’s going to be difficult to own this market regardless.

Looking at this chart, if we were to break down below the ¥132 level, then it will send this market down to the ¥130 level. That is my ultimate target, but I also recognize that we probably have the headlines to throw this market around and therefore you will need to be very cautious about the amount of position size that you use.

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GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British pound breaks down during the week

The British pound formed a shooting star during the previous week against the Japanese yen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the ¥135 barrier. At this point, the market looks as if it does want to try to turn around and test that level again, before perhaps breaking down. Keep in mind that the market is highly sensitive to risk appetite in general, and of course that’s all over the place right now. We also have concerns about the Brexit, as there are so many conflicting headlines there as well. Ultimately, this is a market that should turn around to show signs of trouble above, based upon the fact that it’s only a matter of time before something comes out to cause some problems. All things being equal, I do like the idea of fading rallies, but if we were to break above the top of the shooting star from the previous week, it’s likely that we could go higher.

GBP/JPY  Video 30.09.19

To the downside, the ¥130 level should be rather supportive, and could make a nice target based upon the shooting star. All things being equal, I do not like the idea of putting a lot of money into this market right now though, because it will obviously go back and forth quite a bit drastically at times. We are in a downtrend though, so it makes it easier to short this market than anything else.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound bounces from 50 day EMA

The British pound initially fell during trading on Friday breaking below the 50 day EMA against the Japanese yen but has turned around of form a nice-looking hammer. By doing so, the market looks as if it is ready to bounce again, perhaps reaching towards the ¥135 level above which was so resistive. With that, the market continues to be very choppy and therefore very sloppy. However, I suspect that in the short term we will get a little bit of a bounce, followed by a massive amount of resistance at the ¥135 level which is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure but it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

GBP/JPY  Video 30.09.19

With all of that being said, if we turn around to break down below the lows of both Thursday and Friday, that could open up the door down to the ¥130 level which is where we had broken out above to get to this level to begin with. Quite frankly, this is a market that is going to continue to be difficult because it is wrist sensitive and that of course is sensitive to the Brexit which is nothing short of a mess. At this point, if you are to trade this pair, you need to trade with small size, and therefore with the large and wide stops. Trying to trade this market with a lower leverage will be a great way to lose money in this environment.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound showing signs of resiliency

The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday against the Japanese yen, as the markets quite frankly have no idea what to do next. The 50 day EMA has offered a certain amount of support, but there is also a significant amount of resistance above in the form of the ¥135 level that will most certainly come into play. Ultimately, if we were to break down below the ¥132 level, then this market probably continues lower, reaching towards the ¥130 level.

GBP/JPY  Video 27.09.19

Keep in mind that there is still a major problem in the form of the Brexit, as it is all over the place as well. This is a market that will have to deal with that circus in London and the European Union, so lots of volatility and shakiness will more than likely continue to be a major factor in this market. That being said, we are still very much in a downtrend despite the fact that we have had a nice pop higher. All things being equal, keeping a small position size probably makes the best way to trade this pair in general. We had gotten a bit parabolic over the last couple of weeks, and therefore it makes sense that we pulled back a bit. However, if we were to break above the ¥135 level, then we could make a move towards the 200 day EMA, but that would take a significant bullish move in either risk appetite or the Brexit situation to make that happen.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound continues to fall

The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session, but then broke down towards the 50 day EMA which is painted in red on the chart. At this point, the ¥133 level looks to be offering support, but if we were to break down below there it opens up the door for a possible move down to the ¥131 level. Ultimately, this is a market that is wrist sensitive, and of course there are a lot of reasons under the think that risk appetite is going to be all over the place. With the added specter of a possible impeachment hearing, a lot of market participants are getting a bit nervous. However, it’s probably overdone.

GBP/JPY  Video 26.09.19

To the upside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at the ¥135 level has offered plenty of resistance. By breaking through the “hanging man” several days ago, the market should continue to go lower, as the market participants worry about several different things at the same time. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to react to the latest headlines, which of course is going to be a major issue. If we were to turn around and break above the ¥135 level though, then it’s likely that the 200 day EMA will be targeted above, which is close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. All things been equal though, it’s probably only a matter time before something negative comes out of the United Kingdom.

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