The British pound has shown itself to be a little overextended against the Japanese yen during early trading on Monday, as the ¥139 level offers resistance yet again. That being said, this is a market that I think will eventually go looking towards the ¥140 level, and if we can clear that level continue to go much higher. I like buying dips, and quite frankly I would like to see a little bit bigger of a pullback in order to get involved. Nonetheless, if we break the ¥140 level to the upside it is likely that we go much further.
GBP/JPY Video 04.08.20
The 200 day EMA underneath has been cleared quite handily over the last couple of days, so I think it is only a matter of time before that would offer a longer-term support level, just as the ¥135 level has been previously. In fact, the 50 day EMA is sitting there at the ¥135 level, so I think that also offers a bit of psychological support as well. Ultimately, this pair desperately needs to take a break, and that might be what we are seeing right now.
Ultimately, I think that you will see a lot of volatility but given enough time I expect this market to go much higher. After all, we have seen a lot of bullish pressure in the British pound in general, so it is hard to imagine why that would change suddenly. In the meantime, I am simply observing what is going on and I recognize that we are in a massive move just waiting to happen.
The GBP/JPY is breaking above the key resistance trend line (dotted purple). This occurred after a double bottom around the 125 support. Can the GJ now test the previous top?
Price Charts and Technical Analysis
The GBP/JPY seems ready for a bullish wave C (pink) due to the break above the 21 ema zone and resistance trend line. But the long-term MAs remain bearish. A new break is needed before a full upswing can be confirmed. A bullish break, flag, and continuation would confirm that upside (green checks). The main target could be 155 at the previous top.
Price action should remain last week’s candle low and overall support zone (blue lines). A bearish breakout below that support zone invalidates the bullish outlook (red x). A bearish breakout could trigger an unexpected bearish swing (dotted orange arrow). In that case, price could build an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter
By the time Friday rolled around, the British pound was in familiar territory, as we were threatening the ¥139 handle. This is an area where we have seen quite a bit of resistance recently, so do not be surprised at all to see a little bit of a pullback. That being said, the market is certainly one that you do not want to short, and the fact that we have attacked this area again tells me that there is significant demand. With that in mind, I like the idea of buying dips and will not be selling this pair anytime soon, at least not until it breaks down below the ¥135 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will eventually see a lot of noise, as it is pushed around by multiple things at the same time.
GBP/JPY Video 03.08.20
The British pound itself is strong but eventually people are going to think about the Brexit situation again, and that of course is something that is worth paying attention to. With that being said, I think that it is only a matter of time before we start talking about that, but in the meantime, it certainly looks as if the British pound is trying to make a bigger move. If we can break above the ¥140 level, the next target would be closer to the ¥145 level. We have been basing for some time going back a couple of years, so who knows, this might be where we change everything. Be cautious with your position size and look for value.
The British pound initially dipped slightly to kick off the trading session on Friday but as you can see, we have turned around to break much higher. We started the move above the ¥138 level, and it now seems as if we are ready to go much higher given enough time. Ultimately, the ¥140 level will be targeted but we may need to pullback ever so slightly in order to find value. I like the idea of buying the pair on dips, because we are clearly trying to change the overall trend when it comes to the British pound on the whole. It has been one of the best performers lately, and there is nothing on this chart that suggests it will not continue to be so.
GBP/JPY Video 03.08.20
The size of the candlestick is relatively strong, but it is the overall momentum that I like. Furthermore, we have installed the US dollar gain against the Japanese yen, bouncing from a major support level. This should continue to weaken the Japanese yen overall so that should of course be positive for this pair also. As long as traders are willing to overlook the Brexit situation, it makes quite a bit of sense that we should continue to see the British pound go much higher as it is historically cheap against most currencies.
The GBP/JPY pair is also sensitive to the risk appetite of traders around the world, so that is most certainly something to pay attention to as well. With this, things look good and I think they continue to grind higher. That being said, ¥140 will probably cause some type of psychological resistance.
The British pound continues to find buyers as we have broken out now and it looks like we are going to go much higher given enough time. The ¥139 level will more than likely be a target, perhaps even the ¥140 level. Now that we are breaking out the way we are in the fact that the British pound is above the $1.30 level, it is likely that we will see that translate into a bigger move over here as well. If we can get the stock markets to rally again, that will almost certainly drag this pair higher as well due to the risk appetite function of it. With that being said, buying pullback should continue to work as there seems to be plenty of liquidity out there to drive asset prices higher.
GBP/JPY Video 31.07.20
The 200 day EMA sits at the bottom of the daily candlestick, so that is also a very bullish sign. The British pound simply will not roll over, so there is no need to fight it over here either. In general, I think that we are looking at this pair going much higher over the longer term, as the British pound itself has got a bit parabolic against many other currencies. One of the things that has kept this pair a bit muted is the fact that the dollar is falling hard against the Japanese yen, so therefore there is a little bit of Japanese yen strength overall. Regardless, there is only one direction you can be trading the British pound right now and that is to the upside. That not only includes the GBP/USD pair but also this one.
The British pound has rallied significantly against the Japanese yen, perhaps in a sign of more of a “risk on” behavior around the world. With the FOMC coming out later in the day, it could give traders more of a reason to take on riskier assets, because the Federal Reserve encourages this behavior through loose monetary policy. That means that most currency should do fairly well against the Japanese yen, however there is a little bit of a drag with these related currency is because the US dollar is in fact losing against it and currencies are typically measured for strength against the greenback.
GBP/JPY Video 30.07.20
I do like the idea of buying this pair on a breakout above the ¥137 level, or on short-term pullbacks. I think that we will eventually go looking towards the ¥139 level, followed by the ¥140 level. It is more than likely just a matter of time but as the GBP/USD pair approaches the 1.30 level, you could probably see some form of profit-taking, and that might cause a short-term pullback here due to the pound losing a little bit of strength. Ultimately though, it is only a matter of time and I think that the ¥135 level is essentially the “floor” in the market. The resiliency of this pair should not be ignored, as it has clearly put everyone on notice that the British pound is going to continue to rally. That being said, if we can get a push higher in the stock markets around the world, that tends to help this pair as well.
The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to grind in a general upward fashion. Ultimately, I believe that this market will probably find a reason to make a move, most likely to the upside as the ¥135 level appears to be offering somewhat significant support. I think at this point it is worth noting that we are currently sitting between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA, so technical traders will more than likely be paying attention to that. With that being said, it does create a little bit of a squeeze, so Price might have some trouble making a move in the short term. Longer-term though, that normally leads to a nice amount of momentum.
GBP/JPY Video 29.07.20
The trade set up for me is relatively simple when it comes to this pair, I am a buyer above the 200 day EMA and the seller below the 50 day EMA. Having said that, if we break down below the 50 day EMA I would target the ¥132 level, and probably not much more than that. To the upside, I think we could go as high as ¥139 relatively quickly, and then the ¥140 level and beyond. I do think that it is easier for this market to rally than it is to fall at the moment, but one thing that is not helping is the fact that the USD/JPY pair has been falling, showing Japanese yen strength. Remember, currencies are all a relative game.
The British pound has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday but continues to see a lot of support near the ¥135 level, an area that has been important more than once. Ultimately, I believe that this is a market that will find plenty of buyers underneath and we will eventually go to the upside. The British pound has been doing fairly well against most currencies, especially considering that the Brexit situation still has not been completely settled. You should also keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to the overall risk appetite of traders around the world happens to be, so pay attention to the stock markets and things like that.
GBP/JPY Video 28.07.20
If we were to break down below the ¥135 level, then I believe that we are more than likely going to see support based upon the 50 day EMA underneath, as we have seen a lot of value hunting underneath. With that being the case, I like the idea of buying dips, but I also recognize that things will continue to be relatively choppy. Ultimately, I believe that this market will break out to the upside and go looking towards the ¥139 level, possibly even the ¥140 level as it is a major turning point on the chart from the last massive rally.
There are a lot of things to worry about in the world, but it seems to me that the market participants down seem to care about that, so ultimately this is a scenario where we can expect choppiness, but that can be said about almost all pairs.
The British pound has rallied significantly during the week, breaking above the resistance from the last couple of weeks, touching the 50 week EMA. At this point time, the market has pulled back from there to find some buyers around the ¥135 level. If we can break above the top of the weekly candlestick, then it is likely that the market goes looking towards the ¥140 level. I have no interest in shorting this pair regardless, at least not anytime soon.
Keep in mind that the market is going to be sensitive to the risk appetite out there, so pay attention to stock markets and the like to give you an idea as to how this pair may trade. I think at this point you are likely to see this pair go up or down right along with those assets, so keep in mind that the safety trade of buying the Japanese yen is taken into account.
GBP/JPY Video 27.07.20
The British pound of course continues to go higher overall, so I think that we will see this pair do the same thing. We have formed a nice base recently, so I think at this point there are a lot of people long of this pair already, and a lot of people are willing to jump in and join them at the first signs of some type of “risk on rally” in general. I do not have any interest in shorting this pair anytime soon, because quite frankly every time we have dipped recently, we have seen a lot of buying.
The British pound has fallen a bit against the Japanese yen initially during the trading session on Friday, reaching down towards the ¥135 level. That is an area that has been crucial, and therefore it is not a huge surprise that we have bounced from there. Ultimately, I do believe that the market goes much higher, but we may have to build a little bit of a base in this area in order to continue the uptrend in general. I do believe that we will eventually go looking towards the ¥140 level, and the 50 day EMA underneath sloping towards the ¥135 level is a good sign.
GBP/JPY Video 27.07.20
Looking at this chart, the market has been forming “higher lows” for some time, and it suggests that we are turning the longer-term attitude of this pair, which you can also make an argument for the British pound in general. That being said, I believe in buying on the dips to make quite a bit of sense in this pair. Keep in mind that the pair is also very sensitive to the overall risk appetite of traders around the world, so pay attention the stock markets. If they start to rally with any type of significance, it is likely that we will see a pretty big move over in this pair as well.
Keep in mind that the Japanese yen is considered to be a “safety currency”, and therefore traders will look to shorting this market if they feel threatened. We are currently between the 50 and the 200 day EMA indicators, and that typically means that the market is essentially “stuck” in this general vicinity.
The GBP/JPY is still bullish. The price is getting closer to the POC zone where we might find buyers.
134.85-135.10 is potentially good zone to place new long positions. 61.8 is adding to the confluence and its holding above the W H3 level. We should see a potential move up towards 163.00 zone today. However, a move above next week could push the pair even higher towards 136.89. It is important that the price stays above W L3 134.10 in order for bulls to further dominate.
The british pound has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but found enough resistance to turn around a break down towards the 200 day EMA. So far, the 200 day EMA has in fact offered support, so I think we are going to continue to see buyers on dips. It should also be noted that the ¥136 level is in this area, and therefore it makes sense that there would be buyers as well. I think there are buyers all the way down to the ¥135 level, so that is worth paying attention to as well.
GBP/JPY Video 24.07.20
Keep in mind that this pair is sensitive to the risk appetite of traders in general, so pay attention the stock markets and the like. If they rally, that should help this market as money flows away from the Japanese yen. To the upside, it is likely that we could go towards the ¥140 level, so at this point I think it is very likely to be a bullish market over the next several weeks. This does not mean that we go up every day, but I think the ¥135 level is essentially going to be the “floor” in the market, assuming that we even get down there. I do not know that we can break above the ¥140 level very quickly, but a move above there would signal a massive Ron much higher. Looking at this chart, expect a lot of choppiness but more of an upward move.
The British pound fell significantly during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching down towards the ¥135 level before turning around and forming a very supportive looking candlestick. At this point, the market is dancing around the 200 day EMA, near the ¥136 level. I do think that we eventually break out to the upside so a move above the highs from the Tuesday session would confirm that the market should go looking towards the ¥140 level over the longer term. This does not mean that we get there overnight, but clearly it would open up the doors for a bigger move.
GBP/JPY Video 23.07.20
The British pound has been stubbornly bullish against most currencies, regardless of the United Kingdom and its slew of problems. With that being said, I think that this is simply going to continue to grind higher and more of a “risk on” move, but we may have a little bit of work to do in this general vicinity. Ultimately, I do think that we go higher and go looking towards the ¥140 level. The 50 day EMA which is starting to curl towards the ¥134.50 level is now offering significant support, and it is clear to me that Forex traders are starting to look for growth anywhere they can get it, and of course with the Japanese yen being a safety currency, it makes sense that it is starting to get a little bit hit. Buying the dips continues to work, but I really like the idea of buying a breakout above the Tuesday session.
The British pound has rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday again, as we are now above the 200 day EMA. It looks as if this market is going to continue to see a lot of volatility, but mainly to the upside at this point. The candlestick that formed during the Monday session was very telling, because it had white down a lot of the long wicks to the upside that had shown so much resistance. Clearly at this point the next move seems to be favoring the upside, so as a result there is no point in trying to get too cute with this pair, and because of this it is essentially a “one-way trade”, at least in the time being.
GBP/JPY Video 22.07.20
The ¥140 level above is my target longer-term, and I am holding on for a move to that region. The 50 day EMA underneath is a massive support level based upon the candlestick from the Monday session, because we turned around to wipe out that candlestick, obviously it would be a major shift in attitude. That being said, I do think it is only a matter of time before the buyers step in and pick up dips right along the way, so continue to buy those dips and build a position on the way up for maximum profits. If we can somehow break above the ¥140 level, the British pound is just going to launch into space at that point. In the meantime, momentum has clearly shown itself to be to the upside.
The British pound has rallied again against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week and show signs of life again. Ultimately, this is a pair that is sensitive to risk appetite so paying attention to the stock market will probably continue to be the best way going forward to figure out where this could go. At this point though, I do believe that the market is showing more signs of strength and weakness, so therefore an attempt at the 200 day EMA does make a certain amount of sense, which is closer to the ¥136 level. If we can break above that level, then it is likely we go looking towards the ¥140 level given enough time.
GBP/JPY Video 21.07.20
To the downside I believe that the 50 day EMA also is something worth paying attention to as it has offered significant support. I think you are looking at a market that is trying to recapture the bullish pressure, and the fact that we did break the highs of the last few sessions does suggest that perhaps the buyers are starting to gain a little bit of momentum. With that, I do like the idea of buying this pair and I do not have any interest in shorting this market, at least not right now. If we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, that could cause some issues, but right now we have not seen that be an issue.
The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of noise around the ¥135 level. If the market has a bit of a magnet anywhere, it is going to be that level. The 50 week EMA is above and sloping lower. This leads me to believe that we will continue to see trouble. This makes sense because the British pound has been dealing with the Brexit situation, and of course whether or not the UK economy can continue to strengthen after the coronavirus lockdown is lifted.
GBP/JPY Video 20.07.20
If we did break above the 50 week EMA it would allow the market to go looking towards the ¥140 level. That is an area where we could break even higher from, but obviously we would need to see some type of “risk on” type of trade. This pair is sensitive to the risk appetite of traders around the world, so that will be worth paying attention to. For what it is worth, it looks like we could very well drop a bit from here, perhaps reaching down towards the ¥130 level before finding buyers again at the first signs of serious trouble in general.
The market has been choppy and will continue to be because there are so many questions out there as to whether or not we are in a “risk on” or potentially a “risk off” type of world right now. The volatility is going to continue to be breathtaking at times, and this pair will of course suffer as a result at times.
The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but found the ¥135 level to be a bit much to overcome. Because we are currently trading between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA, it is highly likely that we will continue to see a lot of choppiness. Having said that, if we were to break down below the lows of the week, then we could drop towards the ¥132 level. I think at this point the British pound is going to continue to struggle a bit but given enough time we will have to make a bigger move.
GBP/JPY Video 20.07.20
To the upside, we obviously have a lot of resistance built into the 200 day EMA, so if we can break above there it would be a fantastic opportunity for this market to go higher and look towards the ¥140 level. That probably need some type of “risk on” type of move in general but let us face it here: we have been getting those quite often. With all of that being said, as we drift into the weekend it makes perfect sense to be attracted to the ¥135 region, as we have been here multiple times.
So far though, we have continued to make “higher lows” which makes me believe that we will eventually break higher. It remains to be seen whether or not that high from last week was a “lower high”, which of course could change a lot of things. Pay attention to the stock markets, they will probably give you a little bit of a “heads up.”
The British pound pulled back a bit against the trading session on Thursday but has found the 50 day EMA to be supportive enough to turn things around again. By forming the candlestick that we are, it shows that we continue to dance around the ¥135 region in order to find some type of footing. I think at this point it is going to be difficult for this market to break out, especially as the 200 day EMA sits just above. Having said that, the markets are in more or less a “risk on” type of mood in general, so that could be one reason why this market rallies.
GBP/JPY Video 17.07.20
Further exacerbating the market situation though is that the Japanese yen itself has been relatively quiet. While the British pound has been dealing with Brexit and a whole host of other issues, it has been a bit “perkier” as of late. So, with that in mind I think that it is only a matter of time before this market probably goes looking to the upside, but obviously the 200 day EMA will have something to say about that.
If we did break down below the 50 day EMA, I think that the ¥132 level would then be supportive. That area has proven itself to be pretty resilient, so I cannot imagine that it would be a whole lot different on the way down unless of course there was some type of major of that that changed the overall risk parameters.
The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, crashing into the ¥135 level. That is an area that will attract a lot of attention as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, it of course it is worth paying attention to as the market participants tend to pay attention to these longer-term big figures.
We are currently between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA, so that makes quite a bit of sense that we would see noise. At this point, it is very possible that we will see a pullback towards the 50 day EMA but I think we will continue to see that level offer support as well. If we were to turn around a break down below the hammer from the previous session, that would of course be negative and could open up a move towards the ¥132 level underneath.
GBP/JPY Video 16.07.20
Ultimately, if we can get a daily close above the ¥135 level it is likely that we go looking towards the 200 day EMA above. That being said, this is a market that is extraordinarily volatile, and that is under the best of circumstances. At this point, it is likely that the noise will continue as we have so many questions about the global economy and of course the United Kingdom itself. We still have Brexit to deal with, despite the fact that nobody seems to be paying attention to it. At this point, a technical pullback makes quite a bit of sense, but I would not necessarily be expecting a major breakdown.
The British pound fell initially on Tuesday to reach down towards the 50 day EMA yet again. This is an area that has been crucial for support over the last couple of weeks, and it does look like it is starting to try to come into play. The ¥135 level continues to be crucial for the market, and therefore I think that we will be paying close attention to it. To the upside, I see the 200 day EMA offering a lot of resistance, so if we were to break above that indicator, painted black on the chart, then it opens up the possibility of a move towards the ¥140 level.
GBP/JPY Video 15.07.20
To the downside, if we break down below the 50 day EMA it is likely that we go looking towards the ¥132 level, an area that has been supportive recently. This move was attempted early during the trading session on Tuesday, but so far has been rejected. However, if we were to break down through the 50 day EMA, it would be a negative sign because it would be the market trying to do so yet again, after being repudiated.
Keep in mind that this pair is sensitive to risk appetite, so pay attention to what stock markets and overall risk assets are doing. If it seems that the market is in a “risk on” type of mood, then it makes a significant amount of sense that this market would rally. However, as we are in earnings season in the United States, bad news could be fast and furious. Furthermore, we have a lot of concerns when it comes to the coronavirus. All of that, and we have not even discussed Brexit yet.