British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis
If there was one currency pair that destroyed a multitude of currency traders accounts this week, it was this one. I shudder to think how many people got blown out during the course of the week, but at the same time there were almost certainly some very lucky individuals. That being said, this is a very dangerous place at this moment.
As long as there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to the British pound, it’s difficult to get overly bullish of this pair. Quite frankly, if I want to short the Japanese yen, I might do it again something a little bit more reliable like the US dollar or the Swiss franc. Yes, I recognize how big the turnaround has been, but that’s exactly my point, it’s overdone. On the other hand, if we see the Japanese yen suddenly strengthened, this pair will almost certainly get handed its head, as the British pound is so unstable at the moment anyway.
The Bank of England is essentially panicking, as they are buying bonds and raising rates simultaneously. This is the look of a central bank that has lost control, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Either way, you are best advised to either leave this pair alone or use very small position sizing. Volatility could be a killer in this pair, so you need to think about your trading account first and foremost and focus less on the potentially huge moves that could make you a very lucky person.
The British pound initially rallied during the trading session on Friday but found the 50-Day EMA a bit too much to overcome. Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will continue to see quite a bit of pressure, but you can see just how violently we overreacted to the celling. I think that’s going to continue to be the game here, due to the fact that the British pound has so many issues around it, and then of course you have the Japanese yen making its own noise.
At this point, I think you’ve got a scenario where this is going to be extraordinarily volatile, so the most important thing you can do is to keep your position size reasonable as there will be a lot of potential for trouble during the next few weeks.
Rallies at this point in time would be suspicious, unless of course the Japanese yen itself starts to come undone. The fact that we could not hang on to gains makes quite a bit of sense, because this is not exactly a “risk on environment” from a global standpoint. I do believe that we have a scenario where the situation is going to get worse before it gets better, so even if we do see the Japanese yen get hammered, I suspect this is probably a market that I will avoid, and I would be a buyer of something like the Swiss franc or the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The overall attitude should remain erratic, but I still think this is a dangerous market by any stretch of the imagination.
The British pound has initially fallen against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday, to reach down toward the ¥155.50 level before turning around. Ultimately, this is a market that probably has a little bit of noise attached to it due to the fact that the Bank of England is basically panicking at this point, by stepping in and buying bonds while raising rates. This isn’t going to work, and therefore I think any rally in the British pound is more likely than not going to be short-lived.
At the very least, this pair will underperform other yen related parents, because even if the USD/JPY pair breaks above the crucial ¥145 level, the “follow-through” trade over here will probably be slower from a percentage standpoint. The ¥155 level underneath should offer support, so if we were to break down below it, the market could drop down to the ¥152.50 level, an area where we have seen a bit of interest shown on Wednesday.
Regardless, keep in mind that this pair is oversold, and it is trying to rally, but the ¥160 level above looks to be very difficult, especially with the 200-Day EMA sitting there as well. In other words, this is still a market that I do not trust, because quite frankly it’s two very soft currencies competing at the same time, meaning that volatility will continue to be a major issue, as attention fluctuates from one currency to the other.
If you are looking to short the Japanese yen, I’d be a buyer of other yen related parents, not this one. However, if the Japanese yen suddenly turns around based upon an attitude adjustment by the Bank of Japan, this pair could fall apart.
This pair is going to continue to be very dangerous at this point, and I would be very cautious about getting too aggressive at this point, as the market has been very noisy. However, it’s also worth noting that we are oversold, but at the same time the Bank of England has made a complete mess of almost everything. After all, the central bank coming into buy bonds is the same thing is quantitative easing, bonds at the same time they are raising interest rates going forward. In other words, the Bank of England is essentially panicking.
The initial reaction was of course a relief rally, but at the end of the day, the central bank has shown it has no idea what it’s going to do, and therefore it does not invoke a lot of confidence. In other words, I think the British pound is going to continue to be one of the weakest currencies out there, but you can also make a huge argument that it is oversold at the moment. Do not be surprised at all to see a little bit of a bounce, that’s only going to get faded over the longer term.
I believe this is a situation that continues to be one of extreme caution, and you should make sure that your position size is something reasonable. After all, this pair is volatile under normal circumstances, and these are not normal circumstances, meaning that it’s only going to be worse. Quite frankly, I would not be trading this market at all, but the 200-Day EMA being near the ¥160 level would be a great place to start fading from if you get the opportunity and the exhaustion candle you’d be looking for.
The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to try to recover after the drastic plunge at the open on Monday. At this point, it looks as if the British pound is trying to turn things around, as the market is likely to continue to react to expectations of a 200 basis point rate hike at the next meeting. (That being said, it’s just the implied move in the futures market, nothing that the Bank of England has actually stated.)
The ¥155 level is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to, and it’s worth noting that the massive candlestick from Monday was a huge hammer. That’s not to say that I think this pair is suddenly going to be explosively positive, just that a little bit of a relief rally makes a certain amount of sense.
Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan is possibly looking to intervene in the Forex market again, as they even stated so early during the day. The market clearly has a lot of instability in it, but at this point in time that typically leads to big losses if you are not cautious about your position sizing. That being said, the British pound itself is a bit of a basket case right now, and I think if you are looking to buy something against the Japanese yen, the British pound might not be the best choice. Ultimately, I think the upside is probably limited to about ¥160, which is where the 200-Day EMA currently sets. That of course is a major technical analysis indicator that people will be paying attention to.
The British pound has broken down significantly during the trading session on Monday, collapsing below the ¥150 level early during Asian trading, only to turn around and bounce well over 600 pips by the time New York got online. In fact, it’ll be interesting to see of this plays out because this type of volatility normally means somebody somewhere is going to get wrecked. As for myself, it was a matter of getting in and getting out rather quickly. There are times where you are better off letting the market sort itself out, and therefore it’s likely that we can continue to see extreme bits of volatility that you will not want to have anything to do with, because if you get on the wrong side of the trade, you could wreck your account.
The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, but I do think at this point we are getting a little overdone. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to continue to see a lot of danger, but the British pound itself is the main problem. The Japanese yen is not a currency I would want to own, but when the British pound dropped over 500 pips almost immediately, it had gotten overdone. When you get a major crash like that, you normally get a massive “dead cat bounce”, which is what we have already seen. I think at this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see noisy behavior, and therefore if you do choose to trade this market, I would do so with about half the normal size position.
British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis
The British pound has collapsed during the week, especially during Friday as we have seen massive moves in the bond markets. As a general rule, I believe that the market is probably going to have to see the occasional bounce, but it looks like it may have further to go. Regardless, if I were to start buying the yen related pairs, in other words if I were to start shorting yen, I would not do it here. I believe that the British pound is so sick at the moment that you cannot trust it.
If the Japanese yen suddenly starts to pick up a lot of momentum, perhaps in some type of safety bid, this pair is going to be absolutely eviscerated. At that point, my positions will be as follows: short GBP/JPY, short NZD/JPY, short AUD/JPY, and short ZAR/JPY. The Japanese yen is oversold by most accounts, but the Bank of Japan continues to fight interest rate so that is the real problem. I do think that we are more likely than not going to continue to see a lot of ugliness, so I think this is a pair worth watching.
Do not forget there is a bit of a “risk on/risk off” type of attitude to be had in this pair, so that is also a component that must be paid close attention to. Currently, we are most decidedly “risk off”, which of course favors the Japanese yen under normal circumstances. The question now is whether or not the Bank of Japan is going to continue to support its own currency, because if it does we could go back to the old correlations.
The British pound has fallen hard during the trading session on Friday, breaking down below the ¥160 level. This is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I think with the absolute terror that is out there in the hearts of some people, it’s likely that we continue to see the Japanese yen favored over the British pound. However, this is a fight between 2 lightweights, and therefore the volatility will continue to be massive. Furthermore, you should also keep in mind that the market is probably going to see a lot of concern out there.
The British pound itself is probably the main driver of the pair now, and if we break down below the ¥147.50 level, then it’s likely we can look into the ¥155 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of trouble, and therefore I think that you need to pay attention to how the yen is behaving against other currencies, because of it starts to pick up strength, over here we are going to see this market absolutely collapse.
I do not have any interest in buying this pair, and if I choose to short the Japanese yen it will be by going long the USD/JPY pair. Yes, the Bank of Japan has just intervened, but I don’t know that it truly matters. This type of environment is going to continue to be very brutal, and therefore you need to be cautious. Remember, even in the worst bear markets there are huge bounces, you do not want to get caught in a huge position on the wrong side of that.
The British pound has gotten hammered against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as we have now broken below the 200-Day EMA. Ultimately, the market also broke down below the ¥160 level, and it looks threatened to say the least. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it’s likely that we are looking to the ¥157.50 level, and beyond. The Bank of Japan intervening overnight spooked the market, and the Japanese yen strengthened quite violently. This was especially true over here where the British pound has been less than loved as of late, and I just don’t see how that changes anytime soon.
I have been saying for some time that this pair will continue to underperform the other yen related pairs, and the Thursday intervention was a perfect example of this. Because of this, I think that we will have to pay close attention to what the yen is doing against other currencies, and trade accordingly. Ultimately, this market also has a certain “risk on/risk off” type of component to it as well. With this being the case, I think it is probably only a matter of time before we see other market forces come into the picture as well.
I think it’s very likely that we will continue to see volatility to say the least, and negativity if things really started to unravel. Ultimately, the work of the buyers is going to be hard to accomplish, so I think we probably have somewhat limited upside in this pair, at least for the short term. Longer-term, that remains to be seen.
The British pound has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we wait for the next big move. That being said, it looks like we are trying to form a bit of a hammer at a significant support level, so it does in fact suggest that we could go higher. Ultimately, I think this is a market that you have to look at through the prism of risk appetite and also the United Kingdom.
Furthermore, we also have to pay attention to the Bank of Japan and the fact that it is doing quantitative easing, while everybody else seems to be doing something else. In other words, you have a lot of crosscurrents here in this pair, which might explain why it has been a relative underperformer when it comes to yen related markets. I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we see buyers step back into this market and push it toward the ¥165 level, maybe even the ¥167.50 level which is where we had topped out at. However, you can expect a lot of volatility regardless of what happens next.
Underneath, the 200-Day EMA hangs around the ¥160 level, which should be a very interesting place for buyers to get involved. It’s not so much about the British pound at this point as it is about the Japanese yen, as you can see on the GBP/USD pair, which of course has made a fresh, new low. In fact, that’s part of the problem over here, the negativity around the British pound is enough that it keeps it from skyrocketing against the Japanese Yen.
The British pound has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. At this point, the ¥165 level is a potential target, but if we can break above there is likely that we could see an attempt to get back to the highs again. Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will do so, but it’s obviously going to be very noisy as well. The British pound has its own specific problems, so none of this should be a huge surprise.
That being said, as long as the Bank of Japan continues to buy unlimited bonds, this is the same thing as printing unlimited currency, which of course is bad for the whole supply/demand equation. As long as that the policy out of Tokyo, it’s difficult to get excited about owning the yen. However, there is going to come a day where they have to reverse course, and when they do, the Japanese yen will probably be one of the greatest trades.
Looking at this chart, the ¥162.50 level looks to be important, and I do think that we will more likely than not continue to see that as a minor support barrier just below that we can look to. If we do break down below there, then the 200-Day EMA comes into the picture near the ¥160 level. Ultimately, we are in the longer term uptrend but have been very noisy over the last couple of months. The British pound will probably continue to underperform against the yen in comparison to its G-10 contemporaries.
The British Pound continues to look for support underneath, as the pound has seen a lot of pressure against the Japanese yen. At this point, it does look like it’s probably due for a bounce, but if we break down below the ¥162.50 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 200-Day EMA. That is just above the ¥160 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Breaking below that level could have a downtrend start, which would be a huge turnaround considering that the Bank of Japan is doing everything it can to destroy its own currency.
On the other hand, if we turnaround break above the 50-Day EMA, then it’s likely that we are looking to reach the ¥165 level, possibly even the ¥167.50 level. Looking at this market, I believe it is a situation where we try to continue to see an attempt to stabilize this market, mainly due to the Japanese yen more than anything else. I do not necessarily like the British pound, so it’s possible this may be a market where traders are going to continue to favor going long, but I don’t necessarily think this is a situation where the pair outperforms anything else.
After all, I believe that the British pound is one of the weakest currencies, just perhaps not as weak as the Japanese yen. With that in mind, if I had to put money to work, it would be to get long of this market, but I more likely than not will be buying other currencies against the yen, especially the US dollar.
British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis
The British pound has had a very rough week, as we had initially tried to break significantly higher, but continue to see a lot of noise just above the ¥165 level. At this point, the market then pulls back into a larger consolidation area. It’ll be interesting to see if we reach the ¥160 level because that should be a significant amount of support there. The 50-Week EMA has been important more than once, and it is reaching that area. Because of this, I think the market is more likely than not going to continue to find buyers in that area. If we were to break it down through it, look out below.
Keep in mind that the negativity in this pair probably has more to do with the British pound than the Japanese yen, because the Bank of Japan continues to do everything it can to keep interest rates lower. The market has been noisy for some time, and therefore I think we are going to continue to see negativity out there. Ultimately, this is a market that is sensitive to risk appetite, but the Bank of Japan has been a bit of a counterbalance to that.
That being said, you also have to pay attention to the United Kingdom, which is going to have a lot of problems this winter, right along with those across the channel. In other words, this is going to continue to be an underperforming currency pair, at least in relation to the other Japanese yen-related pairs. Ultimately, this is a situation where you need to be very cautious about position sizing, because of the volatility of nothing else.
The British pound has plunged across the board during trading on Friday, and that includes the Japanese yen. Because of this, it should not be a huge surprise to see that the market has broken through the 50-Day EMA and reached toward the ¥162.50 level. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility, but I also think that there is a lot of support just below. Whether or not we can continue to go lower is a completely open question, but we are a little bit overdone in the short term.
I have been saying for a while that the Japanese yen is a currency that you should be shorting. I also have been saying that this pair is probably going to underperform other ones because quite frankly the British pound is a close second as far as weaklings are concerned. Ultimately, I do believe that eventually, we get a bounce but if I’m going to short the Japanese yen, I’m going to buy a currency that is relatively strong against it. Most recently, I have been buying either USD/JPY on dips, or CHF/JPY. Both of those currencies are doing reasonably well, especially against currencies that nobody wants.
If we break down below the ¥162.50 level, the next major support level is probably going to be right around the 200-Day EMA. That is currently crossing the ¥160 level and racing higher. Breaking down below that would obviously be a very negative turn of events, but more likely than not would be about the British pound, and not necessarily the Japanese yen.
The British pound had initially looked as if it was ready to go higher during the trading session on Thursday but gave back gains rather abruptly. The ¥165 level was tested for support, and that is an area where I anticipate a lot of buyers will show up. Whether or not it holds could be a completely different question to ask, but right now it appears that this is a market with somewhat limited upside.
When you look at the chart, you can see that we have been going sideways for a while now, and it does make a certain amount of sense that now that we are at the top of the range, we may get a little bit of a pullback. A pullback at this point could send this pair looking to the ¥163 level where the 50-Day EMA currently resides. This is a technical indicator that has been somewhat reliable recently, so we will have to see whether or not “market memory” comes into the picture.
On the other side of the equation, if we were to break above the top of the candlestick for the Thursday session, it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥167.50 level. Breaking above that level would send this market much higher for a bigger move, but I think you need to see the USD/JPY pair break above the ¥145 level for other yen-related pairs to get that type of boost. Given enough time, I would anticipate that the value hunters come back into the picture, but I don’t think we are there quite yet. The British pound of course continues to struggle in general, so this pair may underperform.
The British pound has pulled back a bit against the Japanese yen to show signs of hesitation, but it’s very difficult to imagine a scenario where the market is going to suddenly reverse course. After all, the Japanese yen has been like a punching bag against most currencies. That being said, the British pound might be a little bit of a laggard due to the fact that we have the Bank of England fighting an impending recession. Either way, as long as the Bank of Japan continues to do quantitative easing, the Japanese yen is not a currency you will want to own.
The ¥165 level is an area where you would anticipate a little bit of support, but if we bounce from here the ¥167.50 level will more likely than not be called to break above. If we do break above there, then this pair will take offers longer-term move. In the meantime, I think this is more or less going to be a “buy on the dips” type of situation as we continue to trade back and forth. The 50-Day EMA sits just below the ¥163.50 level and is rising at the moment, so I do think that is worth paying close attention to as well.
It is not until we break down below the ¥160 level that I would consider shorting this market, and even then I would have to see the Bank of Japan changing its overall stance. The Bank of England could do something to disrupt this pair, but at the end of the day it’s simply safer to go against the Japanese yen at this point.
The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in this market. We are at the very top of the previous consolidation area, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we are running out of steam. That being said, I think it’s pretty obvious that market participants continue to favor the upside, but we may have gotten a little too far ahead of ourselves.
Because of this, I would anticipate a pullback but I think there are plenty of support levels underneath it that could come into the picture. The first one of course would be the round figure of ¥165, but even after that we have the 50-Day EMA, the ¥162.50 level, and then the bottom of the overall range of the ¥160 level where the 200-Day EMA sits. Ultimately, this is market that I think will continue to be noisy and prone to the occasional pullback, but whether or not we can break out is going to come down to the Bank of Japan and whether it decides to change its monetary policy.
Buying on dips continue to work as far as I can tell, but we would need to see quite a bit of pressure to break out to the upside at this point. The US dollar is probably going to continue to press higher against the Japanese yen, and that could have a bit of a “knock on effect” over here, but the reality is that the British pound has its own issues, thereby making this more of a range bound market.
The British pound has powered higher against the Japanese yen again on Monday, as we have broken above the ¥166.50 level. This is an area where we have seen trouble in the past, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. The British pound has seen a bit of strength against the greenback, perhaps in a little bit of a relief rally, so some of that might be a bit of a “knock-on effect” over here.
The ¥165 level underneath could be supported, especially as the Friday candlestick was a bit of a hammer. If we were to break down below the bottom of the Friday candlestick, then it’s likely that we go looking to the 50-Day EMA. In that scenario, I suspect that there will be a lot of value hunters willing to get involved. After all, this is a market that is very volatile and has been in an uptrend for some time. As long as the Bank of Japan continues to fight interest rate moves in their bond market, it’s essentially the same thing is printing currency. In that scenario, it does make sense that the Japanese yen continues to lose strength.
That being said, the British pound itself is not exactly a strong currency right now, so any move in this market may pale in comparison to some of the other yen-related pairs. Either way, I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon and look at pullbacks as a potential buying opportunity. The 200-Day EMA sits right at the ¥160 level, and I consider that to be the “floor in the market” currently.
British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis
The British pound has rallied significantly during the course of the week to test the ¥165 level, and now it looks like we are getting ready to go higher given enough time. Short-term pullbacks should continue to be a buying opportunity, and therefore it’s likely that we will see plenty of value hunters coming into the market. The ¥165 level is the beginning of significant resistance that extends to the ¥166.50 level.
If we break above that level, then it’s likely that we could go to the ¥168.50 level, and then beyond. Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, but there’s also the Bank of Japan which of course is a major factor in this market, as they continue to buy unlimited bonds to keep interest rates low in that country. In an environment where there’s only one central bank doing quantitative easing, it makes it a simple set up.
The Bank of England of course has its own problems, but at this point it seems like the market is willing to look beyond that and focus solely on the Bank of Japan when it comes to this pair. I do believe that given enough time, we will breakout to the upside but it’s also possible that the British pound might be a bit of a laggard when it comes to the Japanese yen, as the British will have their own issues with recession later this year.
Nonetheless, as long as the market continues to focus on the Japanese quantitative easing, it makes quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see this market find buyers on dips, especially if we were to fall back to the ¥160 level.
The British pound has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday, as the ¥166 level continues to offer significant resistance. By doing so, the market is likely to see a lot of downward pressure, but whether or not it is going to fall all the way to the bottom of the consolidation area is a completely different question. In fact, we are already trying to bounce a bit to show signs of support.
On the other hand, if we break it down from here, the 50-Day EMA sits just above the ¥162.50 level. After that, we have the possibility of a move down to the ¥160 level, which is the bottom of the overall consolidation area that we have been in for a while. I don’t know what we get down there, but it is the 200-Day EMA in the general vicinity that could offer yet another reason to see support.
Ultimately, this market needs to either pull back a bit in order to build up momentum or go sideways to work off some of the excess broth. Keep in mind that the pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so it’s worth noting that the other markets around the world should be paid attention to, especially as there is so much in the way of confusion out there.
Regardless, the Bank of Japan is doing everything it can to fight interest rates rising, meaning that they are printing currency. Flooding the market with currency of course drives down its value of it. Ultimately, if we can break above the top of the range, then we could go looking to the ¥168.50 level.