GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Continues to Get Hammered Against Japanese Yen

The British pound broke down significantly during the week, slicing through the ¥140 level. At this point, the market is likely to test the ¥139 level, and if it breaks down below there it’s likely that we will continue to see exacerbated losses. At this point, it’s only a matter of time before that happens from what I see, and when that does kick off, we could drop rather precipitously. The market is clearly failing in general, as the Japanese yen is being used as a safety currency.

GBP/JPY Video 02.03.20

The size of this candlestick is of course rather impressive, and it has wiped out quite a bit of constructive action as of late. The coronavirus continues to cause a lot of headline risk out there, and clearly the Japanese yen being used as a safety currency isn’t that big of a surprise. At this point, rallies are to be looked at with suspicion, and as a result it’s very likely that the short-term rallies will end up being selling opportunities, and as a result it’s likely that the pair does eventually break down, but it could be very noisy along the way. Once this pair does break down, it’s likely that it could be looking at a move down to the ¥135 much quicker than anticipated. However, one has to wonder how much more fear there is out there when it comes to the markets in the short term, so a slight bounce really isn’t out of the question at this point in time.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Gets Hammered Against Japanese Yen Yet Again

The British pound has broken down significantly during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a major breakdown and risk appetite. The Japanese yen is acting as a safety currency again, so having said that it’s likely that the markets will continue to drive toward the yen until the overall attitude of traders around the world stabilizes. Having said that though, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where we will see some type of major turnaround right away. On the other side of that equation is the fact that the market is getting oversold, so a bounce is probably very likely. Even if that’s the case though, it’s very difficult to simply just jump in and buy this market because it is “cheap.”

GBP/JPY Video 02.03.20

If we break down below the ¥139 level, then the bottom will fall out of this pair and we will continue to go much lower. It should be noted that the British pound has held up a little bit better against the Japanese yen over the last several months, so this pair may have further to fall than other ones. When compared to other pairs such as the AUD/JPY and the NZD/JPY, there’s much more real estate to the downside if we do get a complete breakdown and collapse in confidence. Rallies at this point will probably be sold into unless of course something changes drastically, so we will probably have to look towards the weekly chart in order to make a bigger decision. If that’s the case, pay attention to how it breaks and of course my analysis here on longer time frames. This clearly looks very bearish at the moment though.

When Investors Are Panicking, Yen flexes Muscles

This week on global stocks was absolutely brutal. We dropped from almost all-time highs to the lowest levels since October. Almost 4 months of rises wiped out in a week. That has to hurt. On the Forex Market, we have the dominance of safe heaven currencies: CHF and JPY. In this analysis, I will analyze the situation on the Japanese Yen.

First, Yen Index. First signs of power appeared on Monday, when the index confirmed the false breakout below important mid-term support (827). Other steps were made on Wednesday and Thursday, when the price broke the mid-term down trendline and the horizontal resistance on the 837. Yesterday’s candle just made everything clear – buyers are fully controlling the situation at the moment. Sentiment for Japanese currency is currently positive.

Now, USDJPY, which we analyzed recently. In our previous analysis we pointed out the giant symmetric triangle and the breakout to the upside. In theory, that was a great buy signal. Just in theory though as in practice, the price met a worthy opponent – highs from the 2019. This is were the price reversed and created a false breakout pattern. Now we are back below the upper line of the triangle, which is a very negative signal for the nearest future.

Now, everyone’s favorite, one and only – GBPJPY. Here, the situation is pretty clear. The price broke the 141 support, which automatically switched the sentiment into a negative one. This level was a crucial resistance from October to December 2019 and later a crucial support, till yesterday. Price staying below this area is definitely pessimistic.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Looking for Support

This pair of course is very sensitive to risk appetite in it seems as if the Japanese yen is suddenly acting like a safety currency again. Because of this, the market has sold off everything against the JPY over the last 24 hours, but this pair may have a bit of negative pressure put upon it by Boris Johnson suggesting that the United Kingdom needs to get a Canada style free-trade agreement with the EU, and it should be clear by June or he will walk away from the negotiations. At this point, it’s hard to tell how much that is affecting the price, but the reality is that the market is in a bit of a consolidation phase with the ¥141 level offering support anyway.

GBP/JPY Video 28.02.20

To the downside, I see the ¥140 level as psychologically important, so it is worth paying attention to. I think at this point we are sitting on top of massive support levels at not only the ¥141 level, the ¥140 level, but also the ¥139 level. In other words, there are a ton of buyers underneath waiting to step in at the first signs of good news. Most likely, we will bounce from somewhere near this area and try to reach towards the ¥145 level again as it would simply be a typical bounce around the consolidation area. If we were to break down below the ¥139 level, that would obviously be very negative but at this point that doesn’t look like the base case scenario.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues to Test 50 day EMA

The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back the gains to reach down towards the 50 day EMA. The pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite so that should not be a huge surprise that we have seen a lot of noise going back and forth. The coronavirus continues to take the headlines back and forth, but we also have the other part of the equation involving the British pound and the negotiations between the UK and the EU.

GBP/JPY Video 27.02.20

All things being equal, you can take a look at this market and see that we are in a bit of a consolidation area between the ¥145 level and the ¥141 level underneath. At this point, we are essentially in the middle of the range, so it’s a bit of a “50-50” type of situation here. I do believe in the longer-term uptrend, but I also recognize that there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to global growth.

The Japanese yen however has been facing significant pressure, due to the fact that the Japanese economy looks very likely to enter a recession at this point in time, and of course the coronavirus spreading into Japan itself is not going to help the situation either, so at this point it’s very likely that we continue to see the Japanese yen underperform as a “safety currency.” All things being equal, I think that the market is simply going back and forth but building a bit of a base to go higher longer term.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues To Fight Japanese Yen

The British pound has bounced just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see a little bit of dynamic support at the 50 day EMA. At this point, the market is continuing to favor the British pound, as the Japanese yen is far too overexposed to the coronavirus issues in Asia. While this is typically a “risk on/risk off” type of currency pair, this is more about getting money away from Asia right now. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to chop around with an upward tilt. I believe that the ¥145 level continues offer resistance, just as the ¥141 level begins significant support that extends down to at least the ¥140 level.

GBP/JPY Video 26.02.20

Ultimately, it does look as if the market is trying to build up the momentum needed to reach towards the highs again, which is closer to the ¥148 level. If we can break above there, then it’s very likely that the market goes looking towards the ¥150 level. The market continues to be very noisy obviously, but ultimately it does look as if we are trying to rally in general. With that being the case, I do like the idea of buying short-term dips, but I also recognize that you will need to be very cautious with your stop losses or perhaps even more importantly your position size.

If we were to turn around a break down below the ¥139 level, then you could have a bigger move to the downside. I don’t expect that though, so therefore I do remain bullish but I also recognize that it looks like we are trying to build up some type of basing pattern, and that can take quite a while.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Pulls Back In Risk Off Environment

The British pound gapped lower to kick off the session on Monday, turned around to fill the gap, and then broke down from there. That being said, the market is likely to continue to go lower, perhaps reaching down towards the 50 day EMA as more fear about the coronavirus seems to be taking hold of the market. Infections are starting to spread throughout several other nations, the most notable one being South Korea. Because of this, equities around the world collapsed and there is more than likely going to be repercussions due to fear. The Japanese yen is of course a currency that suffers plenty of other issues right now due to the Brexit negotiations without this other nonsense.

GBP/JPY Video 25.02.20

Looking at this chart, it appears that the ¥145 level continues to be massive resistance, just as the ¥141 level underneath is massive support. All things being equal, I do favor the upside given enough time, but perhaps a day or two of calm will be needed first. At this point, I would anticipate a lot of volatility in noisy trading, but quite frankly it is in an uptrend so given enough time it should revert. Trading in this area is probably a bit difficult, although we may get a sudden move to the downside. If the market turned around and breaks above the ¥145 level, then it is very likely to go to the ¥148 level after that. The 50 day EMA is starting to slope higher from there, reaching towards the price action, but at this point it’s only a matter of time before we have to make a bigger decision.

GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Trying to Break Out Against Japanese Yen

The British pound initially pulled back during the week, but then found the 200 week EMA to be strong enough to turn things around and reach towards the upside. The ¥145 level is of course a minor level of importance from a psychological standpoint, so don’t be surprised at all to see this market take off a bit if we can get above there. If the market turned back around, the ¥141 level seems to be a very strong support level. Expect a lot of choppiness but keep in mind that this pair does tend to move right along with risk appetite. However, there is a new dynamic in this pair featuring the Japanese yen itself.

GBP/JPY Video 24.02.20

Money is starting to flow out of Japan just simply because of economic conditions worsening. It looks as if the Japanese are going to head into recession, and of course the coronavirus issue is putting more pressure on the Japanese economy as cases is starting to increase their and of course the Chinese and Japanese have a lot of trade back and forth.

The candlestick does look very healthy, so at this point I think the buyers will eventually overwhelm things. That being said, heading into the weekend a lot of buyers probably don’t want to put on a ton of risk. Next week should be positive, but we need to get past the ¥145 level before putting money to work. With that in mind, I am cautiously optimistic but the one thing I know I don’t want to do is sell this market.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Recovers After Initially Falling

The British pound has initially pulled back during the trading session on Friday, but then turned around to show signs of life yet again. The British pound has been strong against the Japanese yen, as the Japanese economy is heading into recession. Furthermore, this is a market that is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so pay attention to how that’s working out. Ultimately, the market is likely to eventually break above the ¥145 level if the rest of the Japanese yen related pairs can rally as well.

GBP/JPY Video 24.02.20

At this point, it certainly seems to be a market that wants to go higher, but as we head into the weekend it’s a bit difficult to get overly excited. I anticipate that we could get a bit of a pullback, but the resiliency of the British pound should not be underestimated. After all, most of the truly concerning features of the Brexit situation have passed, and now it’s likely that we are going to see more attention paid to the idea of the negotiation situation between London and the EU.

Having said that, the British seem to be hanging on with more resiliency now, as the markets are likely to look at the British pound as being undervalued from a longer-term standpoint. Because of this, the market is continuing to push to the upside, but I think at this point short-term pullbacks should offer a buying opportunity. Breaking above the ¥145 level allows this market to go looking towards the ¥148 level. To the downside, the 50 day EMA will offer plenty of support as it is starting to turn higher.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Runs Into Resistance

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but gave back quite a bit of the gains at the ¥145 level. That’s an area that should continue to be important, because it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. However, if we can break above that level, then the market could go looking towards the ¥148 level. All things being equal, I do think we get there but it looks as if the market probably needs to build up the necessary momentum to get there.

GBP/JPY Video 21.02.20

Furthermore, this is a pair that is very risk sensitive, so you should pay attention to what the risk appetite around the world is. Right now, it seems to be a bit skittish but one of the things that has helped lift the Japanese yen related pairs is that the Japanese economy continues to struggle in general. Having said that, if we were to break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday, then it will accelerate the move to the upside. At this point, even though I think the market probably pulls back, I will be looking for buying opportunities closer to the 50 day EMA underneath.

Expect a lot of volatility, but I do think that the market is starting to show its strength, so it’s going to take some massive change for this market to break down. The ¥140 level underneath should continue to be a bit of a floor, so breaking down below there could change a lot of things.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Rallies Against Japanese Yen

The British pound rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking above resistance at the ¥143.50 level. Ultimately, the market looks as if it does want to go another 100 pips in the short term, and then perhaps above the ¥145 level to go looking towards the ¥148 level longer-term. This is a pair that is highly sensitive to the risk appetite around the world, and as a result it makes quite a bit of sense that the market has rallied over the last couple of days. That being said, it isn’t going to be a shot straight up in the air, so pay attention to the ability to pick up little bits and pieces on short-term pullbacks.

GBP/JPY Video 20.02.20

It looks as if the 50 day EMA has offered support over the last 48 hours, so that is worth paying attention to as well. The to the downside, the ¥140 level should be a floor in the market, so therefore I think it’s only a matter of time before we reach towards the highs again. At this point, the market looks very likely to continue trying to build a bit of a base to rally from here. This is a market that takes quite a bit of time to get to where it wants to go, but once it makes its decision, the market tends to break rather hard in whatever direction it’s going. At this point, it certainly looks as if the most likely direction is to the upside, but that doesn’t mean that it will happen right away. A certain amount of patience will be needed.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Rallies Against Japanese Yen

The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching down towards the 50 day EMA underneath. The market then showed quite a bit of strength, as we turned around and reached towards the ¥143.25 level again. If we can break out above the highs of the last couple of days, it’s very likely that the market then goes looking towards the ¥145 level.

GBP/JPY  Video 19.02.20

If we can break above that level, then I think it’s likely that the market is going to go to the ¥147 level, possibly even the ¥148 level. I like the idea of buying pullbacks given enough time, due to the fact that it offers a bit of value. The Japanese economy continues to struggle, and it’s likely that the market may witness the Japanese going into a bit of a recession, although possibly more of the technical variety than anything else as part of the loss will be temporary due to coronavirus fears.

To the downside, the ¥140 level is significant support, essentially the “floor” in the market. Ultimately, the market will eventually find plenty of reasons to go, and if the risk appetite starts to pick up again, that will also help this pair. Ultimately, the market has been rallying for a while, and I think at this point we are trying to form some type of base in order to continue the strength towards the highs again. I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Pulls Back Again

The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday, but then pulled back a bit in a little bit of a “risk off” type of move. Ultimately though, the 50 day EMA is in the middle of the consolidation area, and therefore should be thought of as the median price of the market is trying to coalesce around. Having said that, the market breaks above the highs of the last three candlesticks, then we could go looking towards the ¥145 level. Underneath, I anticipate that the ¥140 level is essentially the “floor” in the market. I do anticipate that the buyers will return between now and then, so I am looking for some type of bounce or support of candle in order to get long again.

GBP/JPY  Video 18.02.20

All things being equal, you should keep in mind that the market is highly influenced by risk appetite, so pay attention to how stock markets are doing and the like. Ultimately, I do believe that the market will find a reason to bounce, but we may be a couple of days away from doing so. Longer-term, I believe that the market goes looking towards the ¥148 level, but if we were to break down below the ¥139 level, then it’s likely that we could go down to the ¥135 level. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be very volatile and noisy, but that’s nothing new for this pair. All things being equal, we need to see more of a “risk on” attitude around the world for the Japanese yen to sell off, thus pushing this market to the upside.

GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Rallies For The Week

The British pound has rallied a bit during the week, reaching towards the 200 week EMA. By peeking above it shows that there is a certain amount of strength, but ultimately, I do think that there is a lot of work to do before taking off to the upside. Underneath, the 50 week EMA is crossing the ¥140 level, and therefore should offer a significant amount of support. All things being equal I think that it is only a matter of time before we rally a bit and go looking towards the highs again at the ¥145 level. Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so that has to be paid attention to as well.

GBP/JPY  Video 17.02.20

If we start to see the situation in China improve, that should push money away from the Japanese yen. That being said, it’s important to notice that the British pound has been relatively strong through all of this, and therefore the fact that it is rising against the pound should be a huge surprise. After all, it has even kept up with the US dollar, so that’s a good sign as well. With this, I like buying dips but I also recognize that this pair is extraordinarily volatile so you should keep that in mind. Build up a position rather slowly and take advantage of what should be a nice basing pattern. A break above the ¥145 level should accelerate the buying pressure towards the ¥148 level. I have no interest in shorting this pair, unless of course we close below the ¥139 level on a daily chart.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Pulls Back Into The Weekend

The British pound pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday, as perhaps a bit of profit-taking was in order. After all, there are a slew of issues out there that could cause major issues with risk appetite, and this pair of course is very sensitive to that. Ultimately, the 50 day EMA underneath which is painted in red on the chart could be a potential support level, just as the ¥140 level could be. Longer-term, I do believe that the British pound continues to rally, mainly due to the historically low levels, and of course the fact that Japan is likely to loosen monetary policy even further.

GBP/JPY  Video 17.02.20

Furthermore, the Japanese economy could be heading into a technical recession, as last quarter was negative and the coronavirus could have an impact on the Japanese economy, albeit in the short term. All things being equal, with the British starting to consolidate their own government towards one direction, that should also help with negotiating between the UK and the EU. This furthermore should put upward pressure on the British pound, and a simple test as to whether or not the British pound could rally can be found against the US dollar. Quite frankly, the British pound is one of the few major currencies that has held its own against the US dollar, when most others have been falling apart. That in and of itself shows that the British pound is not something to be heavily short of. The ¥145 level above will be resistance, but if that can be broken it’s very likely that the market goes looking towards the ¥148 level.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Showing Signs Of Life Again

The British pound has rallied during the trading session on Thursday after initially pulling back. The market has seen a lot of volatility as of late, but as the market continues to find support near the 142 young level this should not be a huge surprise. Furthermore, the British pound has been very strong in general, even rallying against the US dollar, which had been very strong again some other currencies.

GBP/JPY  Video 14.02.20

Looking at the chart, breaking above the highs from last week could send this market looking towards the ¥145 level, and you should keep in mind that the market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, but during the trading session we have seen the British pound rally mainly due to the prime minister shifting around the cabinet in what is probably seen as something that was going to be more stable going forward. Ultimately, that’s probably only an excuse, as the market was already setting up for a bit of a bounce anyway.

To the downside I think the ¥140 level will be thought of as a “floor” but quite frankly I’d be a bit surprised to see us reach towards that area unless of course there was some type of major shock to the British pound or perhaps global risk in general. It seems as if the coronavirus situation is starting to slow down, or at least get somewhat contained so I anticipate the path of least resistance will be higher but don’t be surprised if there is a bit of a pullback in the short term to build up the momentum.

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues To Power Higher

The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the ¥143 level. This is an area that should continue to be very important, as it was the scene of a gap, and a shooting star from last week. All things being equal though, it does look as if the market is simply killing time before trying to build up enough momentum to go higher. I also believe that the ¥140 level underneath is support underneath, and I consider that whole area to be a “floor” in the market. Nonetheless, this is a pair that will be very volatile, as is per usual. This market is very sensitive to risk appetite in general, so therefore you should pay attention to how stock markets and risk appetite in general is behaving.

GBP/JPY  Video 13.02.20

Looking at this chart, I do believe that the ¥145 level will eventually be tested, but we probably have quite a bit of work to do as not only is there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the coronavirus, but there are also concerns when it comes to the British negotiating with the European Union. Because of this, I believe that it’s only a matter of time before value hunters come back in on these dips. However, if we were to break down below the ¥139 level, then I would consider that “floor” completely busted in the market would go much lower. Ultimately, I expect an extreme amount of volatility but anybody who has traded this market for a while should be used to that.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues To Find Buyers Against Yen

The British pound rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday again, reaching towards the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, this is an area that has attract a lot of attention, and now that we are below that level it does suggest that there is a little bit of resistance that will come into play. That being said, I don’t have any interest in trying to short this pair, because there is a significant amount of support just below. All things being equal, this pair will move on a “risk on/risk off” type of scenario, but it currently seems as if there are a lot of moving pieces right now that could throw the spear around.

GBP/JPY  Video 12.02.20

To the downside I would anticipate that the 1.40 level should come into play, offering a significant amount of support. That support extends down to at least the ¥139 level, so I do not believe that it makes much sense to be a seller until we break through there. In the meantime, I believe that short-term pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities as equity markets are starting to turn around. That being said, there is a lot of noise above at the ¥143 level to chew through, and if we were to break above there then the ¥144 level would be next. After that, the ¥145 level would be the next major level. Ultimately, this is a pair that seems as if it is trying to form a little bit of a base in this area, but I also recognize that there is a lot of global noise out there.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Rallied Slightly To Start Week

The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, reaching towards the 50 day EMA. The ¥142 level is an area that should attract some attention, but quite frankly I think we are looking at a scenario where this will move back and forth based upon risk appetite, which of course is all over the place when it comes to the latest headlines involving the coronavirus and the like.

GBP/JPY  Video 11.02.20

That being said, I believe that the market will probably continue to see a certain amount of malaise so even if we do rally from here, I think it will be very slow and grinding more than anything else.

I anticipate that a lot of this will be looked at as a technical bounce, as we had reached towards the previous bullish flag that extends from ¥140, an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to bounce a bit, but we need to see some type of good news to make that happen. Alternately, if we were to break down below the ¥139 level, then the 200 day EMA will probably be a target for sellers. That area could offer support though, as it typically is important for longer-term trends. If we were to break down below that level, it’s very likely that the British pound will fall apart but that seems to be very unlikely to happen in the short term. All things being equal, the market should continue to find support just below.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Bounces From Lows For The Week Against Yen

The British pound fell significantly during the week, reaching below the ¥142 level. Having said that, there is a certain amount of support underneath and therefore turned around to form a bit of a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, and it was preceded by a hammer for the previous week. However, the shooting star from the previous two weeks will also offer resistance as well. The market is currently trading around the 200 week EMA, and the fact that we have two shooting stars followed by two hammers tells me that this is a market that’s probably going to continue to go back and forth on short-term charts.

GBP/JPY  Video 10.02.20

The ¥140 level underneath should be thought of as a major support level and a bit of a short-term “floor” in the market, but at this point I think you are probably better off staying away from the longer-term charts and simply trading some type of range on short-term charts. I do believe that the market will eventually make some type of longer-term move, but there looks as if there is a lot of indecision when it comes to the British pound due to the Brexit negotiations, and of course the issues with the risk appetite when it comes to the coronavirus ripping through Asia. Ultimately, there are plenty of reasons to keep this market going back and forth and volatile so therefore longer-term traders will probably struggle a bit. All things being equal though, I do think the buyers will return.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below