The British pound initially rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking above the 50 and the 200 day EMA indicators on the chart. Both of those are flat though, so it tells you that we are simply going sideways. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions when it comes to directionality, and at this point I am essentially looking at the market as a hostage to the Brexit nonsense that will continue to cause issues.
GBP/JPY Video 21.10.20
The market certainly sees a lot of support underneath at the ¥135 level, which has been important for a long-term standpoint as well, but at the same time we have seen a lot of resistance at the ¥138 level. As we are essentially in the middle of that range, it is likely that the market is simply going to chop back and forth. Ultimately, I look for this market to reach the outer levels of the range in order to play against those areas. Ultimately, this is going to come down to the latest headline coming out of Brexit, so it is almost impossible to trade this market with any type of real confidence.
Furthermore, it is also a currency pair that is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and if risk appetite falls apart that will work against the value of this pair as well, as people start looking towards the Japanese yen for some type of safety. Ultimately, I think the one thing that you probably need to take away is that you need to keep your position size relatively small.
The British pound rallied significantly during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, as we continue to see a lot of noise in this general vicinity. The 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA both have come into the picture to show significant resistance in of course a bit of hesitation as the moving averages are both very flat. The size of the candlestick is of course relatively bullish as well, but ultimately, we are in an area of congestion and that should be paid close attention to.
GBP/JPY Video 20.10.20
The pair is of course very risk sensitive so that is something worth paying attention to as the risk appetite of traders around the world will continue to see things a bit different. Looking at this chart, it is easy to see that we have been in a bit of a range for a while so having said that this is likely to be a scenario where we have a lot of back and forth going forward, because quite frankly there are far too many things out there that could cause major issues in the short term. With this, expect “The Dragon” to be very noisy.
Unfortunately, we have to worry about Brexit and the occasional headline that is going to be coming out, which of course will throw a bit of a wrench into the works at times, but in the end this is a pair that I think is going to continue to bounce around between ¥138 above and ¥135 below until something more substantial happens.
The British pound has fallen during the course of the week, reaching towards the ¥135 level. Ultimately, that is where the market has seen the ¥135 level offering a bit of support and resistance, so I think it is going to continue to be very choppy and noisy. Because of this, the market is going to continue to be very noisy due to the fact that the pair is so highly influenced by risk appetite, which of course people are all over the place with.
GBP/JPY Video 19.10.20
The most obvious influence will be the Brexit situation and all of the noise that continue to come from headlines. John that, the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, so that of course is something to pay attention to as well. Ultimately, the ¥135 level is going to be very important, so above there you would have to think the buyers are still in control, but if we were to break down below the ¥135 level then it would take a decidedly negative turn.
At that point, we could be looking at a move to the ¥133 level, and then possibly the ¥130 level. On the other hand, if we break to the upside it is likely that the market goes looking towards the ¥138 level, followed by the ¥140 level. With this, I think you are looking at a very choppy and sideways market as we need to find some type of catalyst that traders can sink their teeth into to put money to work.
The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to look at the ¥135 level underneath with interest. That is an area that has previously been both support and resistance, and of course it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Because of this, it is likely that we will see a lot of choppiness in this general vicinity. As we head into the weekend, it is also worth keeping in mind that it is difficult to put a lot of money into the market when there are so many headline risks out there.
GBP/JPY Video 19.10.20
Looking at the chart, if we were to break down below the ¥135 level it is likely that we will see the ¥133 level being targeted. If we break down below there, then the market is very much likely to go towards the ¥130 level. Alternately, the ¥138 level above has been a significant amount of resistance and therefore I think that if we do get a bit of a bullish run, it will probably test the ¥138 level.
If we can break above there, then the market goes looking towards the ¥140 level without much discard. Ultimately, the market is likely to be very erratic, because quite frankly there are so many headline risks out there ranging from Brexit to the overall economic outlook for most of the globe. The choppy behavior makes quite a bit of sense, and it is worth noting that in theory we could be looking at a potential “higher low”, but it still a bit early to make that decision or claim.
The British pound has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but found the area above the 50 day EMA to be a bit too expensive, so we then broke down and reached below the ¥136 level. At this point, it looks very likely that we will probably go looking towards the ¥135 level which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. That area has been tested multiple times, but it has also been pierced to the downside and therefore if we can break down below there it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥133 level.
GBP/JPY Video 16.10.20
To the upside, it now looks as if the ¥138 level is going to continue to be rather resistive, so I am not a huge fan of trying to aim for anything beyond that unless of course we get some type of news catalyst to get things going, which almost certainly would have something to do with Brexit. That is the biggest problem here, Brexit still influences what goes on with the British pound because we have not made any real progress when it comes to figuring that entire situation out so keep that in mind.
With that being the case, I think that we need to keep your position size rather small, and quite frankly if you want to be trading the Japanese yen, you could probably do it against a multitude of other currencies that do not have that headline risk involving Brexit. Nonetheless, it looks to me like we will probably try to find some type of support in this general vicinity, so I anticipate choppy and overall sideways action without some type of news catalyst.
The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday but turned around to show signs of life again as Boris Johnson signaled that the United Kingdom would continue to negotiate beyond the made up October 15 deal deadline. At this point, more hope enters the marketplace, but at this point if Brexit cannot be solved in several years, it is difficult to imagine that the market is suddenly going to get good news between now and the end of the year. I think at this point it is likely that the British pound will continue to sell off occasionally, and therefore it is likely that the British pound has gotten ahead of itself with this reaction.
GBP/JPY Video 15.10.20
Looking at this chart, we have recently seen a major breakdown, but we also have a significant amount of support near the ¥135 level. Because of this, I think we continue to go back and forth with a lot of uncertainty. It is very difficult to imagine a scenario where we get cleared anytime soon, so this will continue to move on headlines just as we have previously. Yesterday, I mentioned that there was a lot of support underneath, and it looks like it has come back into the fray.
That being said, I do not think that we go straight up in the air without some type of really good news, and therefore the sideways chop is very likely to continue to be the mainstay of this market. Quite frankly, I would avoid trading the British pound altogether but if you are going to get involved, I would use very tiny positions.
The British pound fell significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 50 day EMA. As New York opened, we were getting close to the ¥137 level, and ultimately if we can break down below the 200 day EMA we could have a run down to the ¥136 level. However, as we have seen recently, the British pound is extraordinarily resilient, and therefore I would not be looking to short this pair. At this point, signs of a bounce will probably be jumped upon, reaching towards the ¥138 level.
GBP/JPY Video 14.10.20
To the downside, the ¥135 level is a major support level, and therefore it is likely to attract a lot of attention. Even if we went all the way down there, and then started to bounce, that would still be a “higher low”, which of course was preceded by a “higher high”, so that is still the definition of a trend change to the upside. With all that being said, I think that a little bit of patience may give you an opportunity to pick up the British pound “on the cheap.” However, keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to the overall risk appetite of the markets.
The Japanese yen is considered to be a major safety currency, so keep that in mind. Nonetheless, I think there is plenty of noise underneath that can come into play and push this market higher. That being said, we still have to worry about Brexit and that of course is going to be a major driver of where this goes longer term. At this point, it appears that a lot of people assume that Brexit will be solved.
The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday initially only to turn around and fall again. That being said, the market looks very likely to continue to see a lot of noise in general and therefore I think we will probably stay in this overall area for the short term. The 50 day and the 200 day EMA indicators underneath are flat and offering support. I believe at this point the moving averages will offer a bit of dynamic support.
GBP/JPY Video 13.10.20
If we can break above both the Friday and Monday highs, then the market is likely to go looking towards the ¥140 level, and therefore it is very likely that there would be a bigger push to the upside. The ¥140 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore it would not be a huge surprise to see a bit of resistance there. On the other hand, if we break down below the 200 day EMA, then the market is likely to see a move back down to the ¥136 level in the short term.
One thing is for sure, the most recent rally has been very strong and even though the British seem to be looking to do everything they can to shoot themselves in the foot as far as the economy is concerned, it appears that the market is still willing to buy the British pound overall. I look at this short-term pullback is just that, short-term until otherwise proven incorrect. I can give you 100 reasons why the British pound should go lower, but as you can see that has not mattered for quite some time.
While the candlestick does look rather healthy, the reality is that there are a lot of things out there that could cause issues. After all, the pair is highly driven by risk appetite, and of course we have to worry about Brexit which is still a major problem when it comes to dealing with the British pound. Looking at the chart, we are dancing around the 50 week EMA, which certain people pay attention to but right now I think it is simply far too dangerous to make a longer-term call based upon anything other than the technicals.
GBP/JPY Video 12.10.20
If we can break above the top of the candlestick for the week, then I anticipate that we probably go looking towards ¥138 level, and then perhaps even the ¥140 level. To the downside, the ¥135 level will be supportive, and a breakdown below there could open up a move down to the ¥133 level. All things being equal, I think this is a market that continues to be very difficult for longer-term traders, because it is so choppy, and we are trading on the latest rumors when it comes to Brexit.
That being said, we are essentially in the middle of the larger consolidation area, so this is essentially a “medicine ball” to use a sports analogy. In other words, somebody is getting hurt but we are not necessarily sure who it is going to be. This pair will continue to be very erratic, and even though we are starting to show signs of going higher, it is worth noting that we have come nowhere near wiping out the damage from the negative candlestick a month ago.
The British pound went back and forth during the trading session on Friday to close out the week, sitting just above the 50 day EMA as well as the 200 day EMA. The neutral candlestick mirrored what we had seen on Thursday, and it suggests that the market is not quite ready to go anywhere yet. Obviously, there is a lot of headline risk when it comes to trading the British pound, and perhaps even more so when it comes to trading the British pound against the Japanese yen. This is because the British pound has to deal with Brexit, but at the same time the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency.
GBP/JPY Video 12.10.20
To the upside, the ¥138 level should offer a bit of resistance, extending to the ¥140 level. If we can break above the ¥138 level though, I do believe that the move to the ¥140 level could be rather quick. On the other hand, if we get some type of major “risk off event” or perhaps some type of negative Brexit headlines, this pair could turn around and drop straight back towards the ¥136 level, followed by the ¥135 level. Regardless, as is a pair that you are going to have to pay close attention to when it comes to the overall noise, and right now it simply seems as if it is sitting around and waiting to figure out which direction to go. Ultimately, we are essentially stuck waiting on politicians at this point, which is a good proxy for the entirety of the markets.
The British pound had initially rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday but gave up the gains near the highs of the week, showing signs of struggles yet again. At this point, the market is dancing around the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA both of which are sitting just below the candlestick. I anticipate that this is a market that will probably continue to be very noisy and difficult, and therefore I think it is likely that we are probably going to see another push lower, perhaps down to the ¥136 level initially.
GBP/JPY Video 09.10.20
Beyond that, we have the ¥135 level which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that is worth paying attention to, and of course an area where we have seen both buyers and sellers recently. Quite frankly, this is a market that is going to continue to move based upon Brexit more than anything else, and general risk appetite. Remember, the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, so that is something that you should be paying attention to.
If we were to break down below the ¥135 level, it is likely that the market could go down to the ¥133 level. However, if we get some type of positive Brexit news, we will more than likely go looking towards the ¥138 level, and then possibly even the ¥140 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to continue to be noisy, but clearly, we have more downside risk than up at the moment, so that is something worth paying attention to.
The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the 50 day EMA and of course the 200 day EMA. At this point, the market looks very likely to see a lot of choppiness and volatility, so therefore I think technical traders could be jumping in and pushing lower.
GBP/JPY Video 08.10.20
Looking at this chart, it could open up a move down to the ¥135 level, which of course has been supported. I think there are far too many moving pieces out there when it comes to Brexit in order to feel comfortable trying to simply buy-and-hold or sell and walk away. The British pound will continue to be a lot of volatility just waiting to happen, so having said that I think that you are better off keeping a smaller position than a big one, and therefore protecting yourself against the latest headline involving Brexit or risk appetite in general.
Remember, the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, so it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see markets fall and go looking towards the ¥135 level. To the upside, if we can break above the ¥137 level, then it is possible that we could go to the ¥140 level. Having said that, that probably only happens if we get some type of Brexit deal, something that we have not been able to do for years. Looking at this choppiness, I think you need to trade shorter-term charts more than anything else.
The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but gave back the gains to fall back into the 50 day EMA, as well as the 200 day EMA. Perhaps this is in reaction to the European Union suggesting that they were more than willing to call the bluff of the United Kingdom as far as an October 15 deadline for a trade deal was concerned. This had negative effects on the British pound, but at the end of the day we are simply retesting an area that had been previous resistance.
GBP/JPY Video 07.10.20
It is worth noting that the ¥136 level underneath has held, and of course the ¥135 level underneath there is even more supportive. If we can break above the highs of both Monday and Tuesday, that allows this pair to continue going higher. Another thing to keep in mind is that the pair is very sensitive to risk appetite, so this could have a lot to do with where we go next. If suddenly “everything is awesome” in a variety of global markets, then under normal circumstances, that should send this pair higher.
Obviously, the exact opposite is true as well. I believe that we are at a bit of a crossroads though because we had such a brutal selloff in this pair previously. As for myself, I am simply steering clear of this pair because I see that it would not take much to move the market 100 points based upon the latest rumor, headline, or worse yet: Tweet.
The British pound has rallied significantly against the Japanese yen during early trading on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of choppy behavior. Keep in mind that the British pound has the entire Brexit situation causing quite a bit of noise as well. Because of this, I think it is difficult to hold onto a larger position, but it certainly looks as if there is a lot of upward pressure more than anything else. Unfortunately, this is built on the hope that something good happens involving Brexit.
GBP/JPY Video 06.10.20
This is what emotional and algorithmic trading looks like, as supporting resistance levels get sliced through at random. Because of this, it is probably best to leave this pair alone but if you had to place a trade it all one would have to think that the resiliency is starting to show that the British pound perhaps is ready to continue going higher. I would anticipate the ¥138 level causing some issues, and most certainly the ¥140 level.
To the downside, the ¥135 level continues to be important, at least from a short-term support standpoint. If we were to break down below there, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to ¥133. Regardless, keep your position size very small, unless of course you are looking to take massive risk at this point. This is a market that is going to get very explosive one way or the other, but unfortunately there is no way to “guess” what happens next.
The British pound rallied during the course of the week to reach the 50 week EMA. The 50 week EMA has caused a bit of resistance, and we have pulled back. It should be noted that a large portion of the gains during the week were based upon headlines suggesting that a Brexit deal was closer, but as you have seen multiple times in the past, that ended up being refused and cold water was poured on that rally. Because of this, I do think that the market is going to remain very choppy but will obviously suddenly move in one direction or the other at times. This suggests that you need to be very cautious about your position size, and therefore should not be looking to get very big. Ultimately, I think you are probably better off leaving this one alone but there does seem to be some obvious support at the ¥135 level.
GBP/JPY Video 05.10.20
If we break down below the ¥135 level, then we are likely to drop another 200 pips. Alternately, if we break above the weekly high from this candlestick, we could go as high as ¥140, especially if it is based upon good news. That being said, there are a lot of moving pieces right now when it comes to risk appetite, not the least of which is Donald Trump contracting coronavirus, jobs numbers out of the United States disappointing, Brexit, a second wave in Europe of coronavirus, and so on. In other words, there are a whole slew of things out there looking to work against risk appetite at the same time.
The British pound has been all over the place during the trading session on Friday against the Japanese yen which makes quite a bit of sense considering how much risk appetite is going back and forth around the world. Keep in mind that the pair tends to be very sensitive to risk appetite, so this of course has a lot to say at times. The market falling to the ¥135 level suggests that there was a lot of fear earlier in the session but bouncing as hard as we have from there is a good sign, at least in theory.
GBP/JPY Video 05.10.20
The ¥137 level above is extreme resistance, so if we were to break above there then we could have a nice countertrend rally. On the other hand, if we break down below the ¥135 level, it is likely that we go looking towards the ¥133 level. All things being equal, I think that we stay in this 200 point range for the short term, but a move is most certainly coming soon. Brexit will be one of the main drivers, but there is a lot of instability out there that you need to be aware of.
Ultimately, that could put downward pressure on this pair. With that being said, I would look for short-term selling opportunities if they appear. Otherwise, I will be a buyer until we break above the highs of the Thursday session on a daily close. There is simply far too much risk out there right now, so regardless of which you choose to do in this market I would use a very small position.
The British pound has been all over the place during the trading session on Thursday as rumors continue to swirl about the ability for officials to reach some type of deal, as a couple of errant comments have from the markets into disarray. In this type of environment, it is almost impossible to trade the British pound in the more liquid pairs, let alone against the Japanese yen which is very quick to say the least. We have seen this movie before, because quite frankly it seems as if hope springs eternal, and therefore people will jump into the markets only to be disappointed later.
GBP/JPY Video 02.20.20
Because of this, I believe that we are more than likely going to continue to “fade the rallies”, unless of course they actually have the ability to come to some type of agreement. All of that being said, news flow will be fast and furious at times, and can send this market 100 pips in one direction or the other in an instant. We have seen that already early on Thursday, so one would have to see this as a sign that the market is still very clearly looking towards the Brexit situation for guidance, and quite frankly that is probably going to continue to be the case. In other words, we are going right back to where we were just a few years ago, with algorithms trading the latest headlines and of course errant comments that politicians make as they play games with each other via the news.
The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, as the ¥135 level is now obviously an area where people are willing to step in and buy this pair. However, the ¥136 level seems to be massive resistance at the same time. In other words, we are consolidating and will more than likely need to come up with some type of solution rather soon. If and when we can get that solution, we could see a rather explosive move. I still believe that there is probably more downward pressure than up, or perhaps better put: I believe that there is much more risk out there then there is a sudden explosion of “risk appetite” coming into play. I could of course be wrong, so it is best to wait until we break out of this 100 point range to start putting money to work.
GBP/JPY Video 01.10.20
This is of course unless you are a short-term trader. By its very nature, this pair offers a nice opportunity for those willing to trade short-term charts, because it is such a well-defined little area. This is a pair that is extraordinarily volatile and does tend to move up and down with risk appetite so that something worth paying attention to it all times. I do not like the idea of putting a lot of money to work here, so simply allowing the market to tell me when to be involved is probably the best way to go with this particular pair.
The British pound has rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday again, showing some significant amounts of resilience. Having said that, the British pound has a massive amount of resistance just above at the ¥136 level, an area that we had seen a lot of downward pressure at a couple of weeks ago. Furthermore, the 200 day EMA is just above and that will attract a certain amount of algorithmic trading as well.
GBP/JPY Video 30.09.20
To the downside, the ¥135 level obviously will attract a certain amount of attention, but we have sliced through it twice in the last couple of weeks, so I think it only has a certain amount of importance. All things being equal, there is also the 50 day EMA getting ready to cross below the 200 day EMA, the so-called “death cross.” While I do not describe this as a significant technical indicator, it does cause a certain amount of psychological damage to the idea of an uptrend, but you can also look at the previous “golden cross”, and see how you would have lost money taking that signal.
Because of this, I tend to ignore the signal, but I know others do pay attention to it. With that being the case, I think that it is only a matter of time before a certain amount of selling pressure comes back into play. However, if we were to break above the ¥137 level, then I think we could go much higher. Until then, I think that you continue to look to fade rallies.
The British pound slammed into the ¥136 level during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week with more of a “risk on vibe.” However, the ¥136 level is most certainly an area where we have seen a lot of selling, and a major inflection point over the last couple of weeks or so. You can see that several of the candlesticks leading to the breakdown were shooting stars, so there is obviously a lot of sell orders in that general vicinity. This leads the markets to interesting point, because we will probably make a rather significant decision in this general vicinity.
GBP/JPY Video 29.09.20
Keep in mind that the 200 day EMA is just above, so that offers a certain amount of resistance as well, and therefore should be paid attention to. You could make an argument for the “death cross” with the 50 day EMA crossing below the 200 day EMA here soon, but most of the time that signal is rather late. The market will continue to move based upon risk appetite in the latest Brexit headline, so that something that needs to be kept in the back of your mind as well. It certainly looks as if it is favoring the downside, so I would expect a “sell the rallies” type of attitude to enter this market rather quickly.
With the United Kingdom also talking about locking down parts of the economy, that cannot possibly have a positive effect on the British pound as well. In fact, quite a bit of what has sent the British pound higher during the day was a Bank of England member denying any talk of negative interest rates. At the end of the day, has anything really changed?