GBP/JPY Forecast August 16, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Monday, but turned back around to show quite a bit of weakness yet again. We are testing the 130 level, and it looks as if we are ready to break down. Rallies at this point should continue to be selling opportunities, and as a result I feel that the market will find sellers every time we show any sign of weakness, either an exhaustive candle after a rally, or a simple break down below. I have no interest in buying this market at all.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 15, 2016, Technical Analysis

British pound fell again against the Japanese yen during Friday trading, but as you can see there is quite a bit of noise just below. I believe that we will eventually breakdown but at this moment in time it’s probably better to sell this market on short-term bounces as a gives you a bit of a running start and value in the yen. I have no interest in buying, the British pound of course will continue to be the whipping boy other Forex world as they have voted to leave the European Union.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of August 15, 2016, Technical Analysis

Yet again, the GBP/JPY pair formed a negative candle for the week and I do believe that we are eventually going to breakdown from here. I think that short-term charts are probably best suited for this type a trade though, because you can pick up “value” in the Japanese yen on short-term bounces. I believe that short-term bounces that show signs of exhaustion will continue to be the best way to short this market, before we unwind even further. I have no interest whatsoever in buying this market.

EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY: Technical Checks

EUR/GBP

Following its gradual recovery from 61.8% FE of November 2015 – April 2016 upside, the EURGBP again confronts the 0.8620-30 resistance-zone, comprising July 2016 high. However, pair’s inability to break the same area on Thursday, coupled with overbought RSI level, indicates brighter chances of its consecutive pullback towards 0.8500, 0.8425 and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – July rally, around 0.8375. Given the pair drops below 0.8375, the previously mentioned 61.8% FE and 50-day SMA region of 0.8250-60 becomes crucial to observe, which if broken makes the pair vulnerable to test 0.8100 round figure mark. On the upside, a clear break above 0.8630 can quickly fuel the pair to 100% FE level of 0.8700 while its additional run-up beyond 0.8700 enables it to aim for 2013 highs of 0.8815. If the pair continue extending its northward journey above 0.8815, the 0.8890 and the 2011 highs of 0.9085 are likely upside figure to witness on the chart.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Even if the EURJPY trades at the highest level in more than a week, a month-old downward slanting trend-channel resistance, around 114.30, immediately followed by 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of June month crash, at 114.45, could confine the pair’s upside attempts. If the pair successfully runs above 114.45, also clears the 114.80 intermediate halt, it can rally towards 115.80 and the 116.20 resistances. Alternatively, 113.30 and 112.80 are nearby supports to watch, breaking which 23.6% Fibo level of 112.50 and the 111.80 might entertain short-term bears before the pair confronts the channel support of 110.80. Should the pair fails to respect the channel support, at 110.80, chances of its revisit to Brexit-day lows of 109.30 can’t be denied.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

Ever since the GBPJPY reversed from 142.40, a short-term descending trend-channel keep restricting its upside. The pair now indicates a quick test to 131.30 and the 131.00 supports before testing the 130.50 downside number. However, its further declines below 130.50 can be restricted by the 129.55-65 support-confluence, encompassing channel lower-line and a horizontal-line, failing to which can drag the pair to below July lows of 128.60. Meanwhile, 132.50-60 area is acting as immediate resistance, clearing which 133.20 and the channel resistance of 134.15 could control the pair bulls. Should the pair surpasses 134.15, it can advance to 135.50 and the 136.60-65 upside levels.

Cheers And Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

GBP/JPY Forecast August 12, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the course of the day on Thursday, as we continue to roll over and reach towards the 130 handle. This is a market that continues to see quite a bit of negativity, and therefore I have no interest in buying. Quite frankly, this market rallies, I would be more than interested in selling an exhaustive candle. With this being the case, this is a “sell only” market, and therefore I don’t even have a scenario in which a willing to turn the market around and start buying.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 11, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell a bit during the course of the session on Wednesday, drifting lower yet again. Ultimately, we are reaching towards the 130 level in my estimation, and therefore I feel that selling on short-term charts will continue to go forward. I believe that the 130 level above is essentially the “ceiling” in this market, and as a result I am sell only, but recognize that there is a lot of volatility ahead, as is typical with the pair anyway, as quite often it will jump around in large areas.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 10, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the course of the day on Tuesday, but at this point in time there seems to be quite a bit of noise in this general vicinity. Also, you have to keep in mind that the Bank of Japan will continue to make is a very difficult market to deal with as well, so I believe that this will be a slightly negative albeit choppy market on the way down to the downside target of 130. I believe rallies will be selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion above.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 9, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rallied slightly during the course of the session, but Monday was fairly lackluster. I believe that the 135 level above is massively resistive, so it’s only a matter time before we exhaust and start showing negativity again. An exhaustive candle is reason enough to start selling, and at that point in time I feel that it’s time to get involved. I don’t really have any other trade set up at this point in time, so with this I would be a seller only, but I need to see the market tell me it’s time to start doing so.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the day on Friday, but turned around to form a slight hammer. Quite frankly though, I think the 135 level above will continue to be very resistive, so I believe that it’s only a matter of time before we break down on this rally as we show signs of exhaustion. I believe that the markets look very vulnerable longer-term, and with that it makes sense that we continue to see sellers enter again and again. I have a target of 130 below but it will probably take quite a bit of back and forth trading the get there.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the course of the week, breaking down below the 135 handle. With that being the case, it looks as if the markets are going to continue to go lower and I do recognize that it is a selling opportunity over the longer term. However, there’s a lot of noise in this market so I feel that it’s probably going to be easier to short this market based upon shorter-term charts more than anything else as volatility will more than likely continue to be a mainstay of this market.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 5, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell during the course of the day on Thursday, slicing down below the 133 handle. This is a market that should continue to go lower now, perhaps possibly trying to reach towards the 130 handle. I think short-term rallies will continue to be selling opportunities, at least on short-term charts. Ultimately, this is a market that should be negative on the longer term, but at this point I believe there is more than enough resistance above the 135 level to keep this market to the downside. Ultimately, expect a lot of volatility today.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 4, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair did almost nothing during the course of the session on Wednesday, testing the 135 level. This is an area that has been a bit of a magnet for price over the last several sessions, and as a result we will need to make some type of impulsive candle in order to decide which direction to go. If we can break out to the upside, then I feel that the market will reach towards the 142 handle. A break down below the lows of the last couple of sessions could very well drop down to the 130 handle.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 3, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Tuesday, as we continue to hang about the 135 level. This is a market that looks very much like it wants to break down from here, and if we break down below the bottom of the range for the Tuesday session, I feel that the market will probably reach towards the 130 handle below. However, I do think that sooner or later the Bank of Japan will do something to work against the value of the Japanese yen overall.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 2, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Monday, testing the 135 handle. This is an area that of course has a longer-term interest formed and it due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number. At this point, it is likely that we could drift a bit lower from here, but quite frankly it using market that seems fairly stagnant at this point in time. Any bounce from here could reach towards the 142 handle given enough time. With this, we are looking for the next move.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 1, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Friday, but turn right back around to slam into the 135 handle. That’s an area that had been previously supportive, and as a result it should be now. However, if we break down below the 135 level it’s likely that we will continue to drop from there. Any type of supportive candle or a bouncer here could be a buying opportunity for the short-term, but I only believe to roughly the 141 handle. With this, expect a lot of volatility in this market.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of August 1, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the 135 handle for support. This is an area that has been supportive previously as well as resistive. We are most certainly in a downtrend though, so I think it can be easier to short this market off of short-term charts more than anything else. With this, I have no interest whatsoever in putting a long term position on, so with this I feel that it’s only a matter of time before I am selling this market again and again on daily or even shorter-term charts.

Technical Plays of EURGBP, GBPJPY & EURJPY

EUR/GBP

Having failed to sustain the 0.8600 break, the EURGBP ended-up witnessing a pullback during mid-July; however, the pair took a U-turn from 61.8% FE of its November 2015 – April 2016 upside and is presently confronting with 0.8450 immediate resistance, breaking which 0.8485-90 and the 0.8550 are likely upside numbers that it has to confront prior to challenging the previous highs of 0.8627. Given the pair manage to clear 0.8630, 100% FE level at 0.8700 round figure becomes a tough mark for it to surpass, which if broken enables it to visit 2013 highs around 0.8820. On the downside, 0.8340, 0.8300 and the 61.8% FE level of 0.8260, are likely nearby supports that could confine the pair’s downturn. Should the pair drops below 0.8260, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – July upside, at 0.8220, might act as intermediate halt, clearing which 0.8095-90 support-confluence, comprising 50-day SMA & 50% Fibo level, becomes an important area for the pair traders to watch.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

GBPJPY’s immediate downtrend, as portrayed by short-term descending trend-channel, signals the pair’s readiness to test the 134.15-10 support-line. Though, further breaks below 134.10, also clearing 134.00, might be restricted by oversold RSI and can trigger the pair’s bounce to 137.50 and the channel resistance-line of 139.00. If the pair successfully breaks above 139.00, the 140.10 and the 141.40 might please intermediate Bulls ahead of confronting 143.20-30 horizontal resistance. Alternatively, pair’s excessive decline below 134.00 can drag the prices to 133.20 and the 131.90, breaking which 130.70 & 129.50 are likely following downside numbers to observe. If at all the pair refrains from stopping its south-run around 129.50, it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards 61.8% FE of June – July plunge, at 123.65.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Alike GBPJPY, the EURJPY also bears the burden of BoJ’s disappointment and indicates additional downside towards 113.70 immediate trend-channel support. Should the pair declines below 113.70, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – June drop, near 112.80, and the 112.50 might hold its additional dips. If the JPY strength drags pair prices below 112.50, chances of its drop to 110.80 and then to June month lows of 109.30 can’t be denied. Meanwhile, pair’s reversal from the current prices needs to break above 115.80 resistance before targeting the 116.75-85 resistance region, including 50% Fibo and the channel’s upper-line. However, pair’s additional run-up beyond 116.85 might find it difficult to surpass two-month old trend-line resistance of 117.50, which if broken can trigger its upward trajectory towards 61.8% Fibo level of 118.50 and to 119.00 round figure resistance.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets events @Fx_Anil

GBP/JPY Forecast July 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the course of the session, showing a slightly negative candle. With this being the case, the market looks as if there should be plenty of support just below, especially near the 135 handle. If we can break below there, that would be very negative. In the meantime, looks as if we are simply grinding sideways and bouncing around. Ultimately though, I don’t like the British pound sell you would have to think that there will be some bearish pressure in this market given enough time on bounces.

GBP/JPY Forecast July 28, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rallied during the day on Wednesday, but turned back around and form a slightly exhaustive candle. Nonetheless, I think the 135 level is massively supportive, so pullbacks should offer short-term buying opportunities. If we did break below the 135 handle, I think that would be the time to start selling. In the meantime, keep in mind that the Bank of Japan is willing to intervene against the Yen if we fall too far, but I am the first person to admit that it will more than likely be in the USD/JPY market, and any reaction over here would be a bit of a sympathy move.

GBP/JPY Forecast July 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the session on Tuesday, but bounced enough to form a bit of a hammer. This of course is a very bullish sign, and if we can break above the top of the hammer, the market could very well grind its way towards the 144 level. A break above there sends this market looking for the 150 handle, if not beyond there. While I do not like the British pound in general, the Bank of Japan will continue to do what it can to support other currencies against the Japanese yen.